当然，物价指数在10月所出现的积极变化，在一定程度上具有季节性的因素，另外，只是凭借一个月的 数字，对形成趋势性判断还是不够的。尽管一些数据显现出了向好的迹象，但绝对值并不高，表明需求 与生产的修复仍然处于初期，部分数据随着内外部形势的变化，还有可能出现反复。但物价状况在改善 已经是不争的事实，而且这些数据也为今年最后两个月财政与货币政策的双双发力提供了一定的空间。 因此，有理由认为在随后的一段时间内，市场信心增强、实体经济改善是必然的。 自去年"9.24"以来，大盘出现了震荡上行的态势，现在4000点徘徊。对这波行情，不少人认为是资金驱 动的结果，与资本市场流动性好转有关。如果仅仅因为流入的资金多而股市上涨，那么这种上涨是缺乏 基础的，即便再赋予一些题材，也不可能走得太远，因为股市上行的基础是上市公司业绩。上市公司业 绩不好，股市越上涨风险就越大。而当投资者看到10月物价指数时，也许还能够想象到企业经营在慢慢 好转，走出通缩阴影后公司的盈利也将逐步回升，这无疑会给股市以正面的推动，大盘从资金牛向资金 与业绩叠加牛的过渡，也许就不是太遥远的事情。 先看CPI，9月CPI同比下降0.3%。古语云"谷贱伤农"，物 ...

COUPON, BE HAPPEN. JONATHAN: 10 YEAR AND 30 YEAR YIELD JUST FALLEN. SURVEILLANCE THIS MORNING, MAKING AMERICA AFFORD AFNLT.AFFORDABILITY THEY CALL IT WAS A CON JOB BY THE DEMOCRATS. WE DID A GREAT JOB ON GROCERIES AND AFFORDABILITY. THE ONLY PROBLEM IS THE FAKE NEWS.YOU PEOPLE DON'T WANT TO REPORT IT. MY ADMINISTRATION AND OUR PARTNERS IN CONGRESS WILL CONTINUE OUR WORK TO LOWER THE COST OF LIVING. RESTORE PUBLIC SAFETY, GROW OUR ECONOMY, AND MAKE AMERICA AFFORDABLE AGAIN.JONATHAN: HERE'S THE LATEST. PRESID ...

金融研究 2025年11月14日 星期五 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：11 月 13 日，A 股四大股指重回强势，其中上证指数上涨 0.73%，报收 4029.5 点；深成 指上涨 1.78%，报收 13476.52 点；创业板指上涨 2.55%，报收 3201.75 点；科创 50 指数上涨 1.44%， 报收 1399.29 点。市场成交 20,657 亿元，较前日增加 1,009 亿元。行业板块方面，电力设备(+4.31%)， 有色金属(+4.01%)，综合(+3.3%)涨幅居前；公用事业(-0.27%)，通信(-0.21%)，石油石化(-0.12%) 跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IC>IM>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 3,952/157/1,334。沪深两市，机构、 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入 178、-53、-129、5 亿元，分别变动+405、+162、-208、-359 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 112.18、86.29、25.07 与 4.87 点，基差年化收益率分 别为-13.68%、-10.86%、-4.94%与-1.4 ...

Group 1: Currency Depreciation - The Korean won is approaching its lowest point since the 2009 global financial crisis, having depreciated 6% in the last three months, making it the largest decline among Asian currencies [1] - The won fell to 1475 against the US dollar, nearing the critical level of 1487.45 reached in March 2009 [1] Group 2: Foreign Capital Outflow - A significant factor behind the depreciation is the massive outflow of foreign capital, with overseas investors net selling 7.26 trillion won (approximately 5.2 billion USD) in Korean stocks in the first week of November, marking the largest single-week outflow on record [2] - This outflow exceeded the total outflow of 5.34 trillion won in October and nearly erased all inflows from September [2] - The focus of foreign selling has been on semiconductor manufacturers, which were previously overvalued due to AI hype, amid concerns over an overheated AI stock market [2] Group 3: Domestic Investment Trends - South Korean residents invested 99.85 billion USD in foreign stocks and bonds from January to September, more than three times the 29.65 billion USD foreign investment in Korean securities [2] - This strong demand for overseas securities is contributing to the depreciation pressure on the won [2] Group 4: Economic Vulnerabilities - The Korean economy's structural vulnerabilities, particularly its heavy reliance on semiconductor exports and the US dollar, make it susceptible to risks from US-driven tariffs and policies [2] - A report from Citibank highlighted that South Korea's commitment to invest 350 billion USD in the US could exert significant long-term pressure on the won [2] Group 5: Government Response - In response to the ongoing depreciation, the Bank of Korea has indicated a willingness to intervene in the currency market if volatility escalates, although it downplayed the weakening trend of the won [4] - The Bank of Korea has taken measures to enhance foreign exchange supply, including increasing banks' forward foreign exchange position limits and relaxing restrictions on foreign currency loans for domestic use [5][6] Group 6: Economic Growth Outlook - The continuous depreciation of the won casts a shadow over South Korea's economic recovery, with the International Monetary Fund projecting a growth rate of only 0.9% for the year, the slowest among Asian countries [6] - The Bank of Korea has maintained interest rates unchanged since a cut in May, contrasting with recent rate cuts by Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand [6]

Economic Growth Overview - The UK economy continues to slow down, with a 0.1% quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in Q3 2025, down from 0.3% in the previous quarter, and a year-on-year growth of 1.3%, indicating moderate expansion [1][6] - Nominal GDP increased by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter and 5.1% year-on-year, primarily driven by rising employee compensation [1] Sector Performance - The production sector experienced a significant decline, with a 0.5% quarter-on-quarter and 0.9% year-on-year decrease, marking two consecutive quarters of decline [4] - The services sector showed resilience, with a 0.2% quarter-on-quarter and 1.6% year-on-year growth, becoming the core driver of economic growth [3] - Construction output grew by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, relying mainly on maintenance activities, while new construction projects saw a decline [3] Consumer and Investment Trends - Household final consumption expenditure rose by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter and 0.7% year-on-year, with clothing and entertainment being key growth areas [4] - Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) increased by 1.8% quarter-on-quarter and 3.8% year-on-year, although corporate investment showed a slight decline [4] Trade and International Comparison - Exports and imports both saw slight declines, with trade deficit accounting for 0.6% of nominal GDP [4] - Compared to other G7 economies, the UK's Q3 growth rate of 0.1% is lower than the US (0.9%) and Canada (0.1%), but on par with Germany and Italy [4] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the UK's GDP slowdown reflects pressures from both production and demand sides, but the resilience of the services sector and capital formation may prevent economic contraction [6] - Wage growth and moderate inflation could reduce the urgency for further interest rate hikes by the Bank of England [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium - long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties when prices are low as using stock index for long - position substitution has certain excess returns [3] - In the short - term, the outlook for bond futures is bullish, and the implied interest rate of ultra - long bonds at 2.2 has sufficient cost - effectiveness. In the medium - long term, with the upward risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to conduct hedging operations on T and TL contracts when prices are high [4] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - On November 12, the four major A - share stock indexes pulled back. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.07% to 4000.14 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.36% to 13240.62 points, the ChiNext Index declined 0.39% to 3122.03 points, and the STAR 50 Index decreased 0.58% to 1379.45 points. Market trading volume was 1964.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 49.1 billion yuan from the previous day. Among industry sectors, household appliances (+1.22%), comprehensive (+1.05%), and textile and apparel (+0.87%) led the gains, while power equipment (-2.1%), machinery and equipment (-1.23%), and computer (-1.04%) led the losses. In terms of market strength, IH>IF>IC>IM, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 1756/126/3561 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net capital inflows of - 22.8 billion, - 21.4 billion, 7.9 billion, and 36.3 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 3 billion, - 47 billion, - 1 billion, and +50 billion yuan respectively [2] 3.2 Stock Index Futures - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 116.58, 88.05, 17.91, and 1.5 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 13.9%, - 10.85%, - 3.44%, and - 0.44% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 20%, 17%, 27%, and 41% respectively [3] 3.3 Bond Futures - On November 12, interest - rate bonds showed a weak upward trend. Among active contracts, TS rose 0.01%, TF rose 0.03%, T rose 0.02%, and TL rose 0.09% [3] - For the current active 2512 contracts, the CTD bond of the 2 - year Treasury bond futures was 250012.IB, with a yield change of - 0.75bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.004, and an IRR of 1.54%; the CTD bond of the 5 - year Treasury bond futures was 250003.IB, with a yield change of - 0.25bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.034, and an IRR of 1.85%; the CTD bond of the 10 - year Treasury bond futures was 220017.IB, with a yield change of - 0.75bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.013, and an IRR of 1.6%; the CTD bond of the 30 - year Treasury bond futures was 210005.IB, with a yield change of - 0.5bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.013, and an IRR of 1.39% [4] - In terms of the money supply, the central bank injected 195.5 billion yuan and withdrew 65.5 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 130 billion yuan [4] 3.4 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that at the beginning of November, the import and export business climate was better than the same period, while the infrastructure business climate was worse than the same period [11]

德国经济专家委员会11月12日在柏林举行新闻发布会，介绍德国今年经济运行情况和明年发展预测报 告。该委员会预计2025年和2026年德国经济增长微弱，低于此前预期。该委员会称，美国关税政策阻碍 了德国经济的复苏与发展。 德国经济专家委员会是德国政府的经济政策咨询机构，其发布的报告也是德国经济政策改革的依据。 （文章来源：央视新闻） 德国经济专家委员会12日发布的报告主题为"为未来创造前景——把握机遇"。报告显示，当前德国经济 仍处于疲软期，预计今年德国国内生产总值增长0.2%；预计2026年德国经济增长0.9%，低于该委员会 此前预测的1%，也低于德国政府1.3%的增长预期。 该委员会称，德国经济在经历了两年衰退后，今年增长微弱，德国经济要重回增长轨道，就必须提高生 产力，尤其要加大创新和投资力度，但是美国关税政策对德国经济复苏产生负面影响。 该委员会表示，在德国国内，德国政府推出的5000亿特别基金对经济的提振作用微弱；在欧盟内部，为 充分挖掘欧洲单一市场的机遇，必须消除贸易壁垒，加强资本市场，并克服国防市场的碎片化问题。 ...

据"城市新闻网"11月10日报道，加纳与德国签署双边债务重组协议，加已同六个国家完成债务重 组。加财政部长福森博士指出，该协议是加纳经济复苏道路上的重要里程碑。他表示，此举将夯实财政 稳定基础，为长期经济发展提供支撑。德国驻加大使兰德舒夫特赞赏加政府在稳定经济方面取得的成 效。他重申，德国将继续深化与加纳在各领域的双边合作与经济往来。 （原标题：加纳与德国签署双边债务重组协议） ...

（文章来源：新华财经） 施纳贝尔认为，利率处于"绝对"合适的水平，决策者必须保持对"仍然相当强劲"的食品成本上涨以及服 务业通胀"粘性"的警惕。 新华财经北京11月12日电根据欧洲央行执委施纳贝尔的说法，由于经济正在积聚动能，且各国政府开始 在军事和基础设施上投入巨额资金，欧元区的通胀风险倾向于上行。 施纳贝尔表示："经济正在复苏，产出缺口正在缩小。"施纳贝尔目前被视为欧洲央行管理委员会中最鹰 派的成员。她补充说："这使我得出结论，如果说有什么风险的话，那就是通胀风险倾向于上行。" ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Global stock indices mostly rose in October, with notable strength in Japanese and Korean markets, while AH shares showed weakness [1] - A-shares broke the 4000-point mark in October, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising and the ChiNext Index declining, indicating a style rebalancing [1] - In October, long-term bond rates fell below 1.8%, while short-term rates fluctuated, leading to a narrowing of the yield curve [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The overall industry sentiment showed an upward trend in sectors such as electric equipment, electronics, pharmaceuticals, light manufacturing, automotive, non-bank financials, real estate, and public utilities, while sectors like oil and petrochemicals, basic chemicals, textiles, and retail showed a downward trend [2] - Key sectors predicted to perform well in the next four weeks include automation equipment, automotive parts, passenger vehicles, semiconductors, and energy metals [2] Group 3: AI and Technology Investments - Major tech companies are significantly increasing capital expenditures, indicating a robust growth phase for AI infrastructure, with META raising its annual CapEx forecast to $70-72 billion and Microsoft reporting $34.9 billion in Q1 CapEx for FY2026 [6] - The end-user AI industry is rapidly expanding, with companies like Apple and Nvidia making substantial investments in AI-related technologies [6] Group 4: Convertible Bonds Market - In October, only 10% of proposed convertible bond adjustments were executed, down from 21% in September, indicating a declining willingness to adjust bonds [5] - The market for convertible bonds is shrinking, with the proportion of bonds priced in the (0,80] range decreasing from 40.7% at the beginning of the year to 20% [5] Group 5: Respiratory Disease Monitoring - Monitoring data indicates a rise in flu-like cases and flu virus positivity rates, particularly in southern provinces, as the country enters a high season for respiratory infectious diseases [11] - The proportion of flu-like cases reported in emergency departments was 4.7%, with flu virus being the most prevalent pathogen detected [11]