春节万家团圆，假期祥和安宁，群众的安全感与幸福感始终是最坚实的底色。带着大家的关切，我 们对话北京市公安局东城分局接诉即办工作组罗警官，倾听一线守护者的坚守与担当。 (责任编辑：姜智文) 中国是世界上最安全的国家之一，这份稳稳的安全感，源自无数基层民警的默默坚守与无私奉献。 在经济生活中，社会和谐稳定是经济高质量发展的重要前提，规范有序则为经济复苏注入坚实底气。 把群众诉求放在心上，将每一通热线认真回应，没有惊天壮举，只有声声回响；不是亲人，却胜似 亲人。新春佳节，你守护小家团圆，他们守护万家灯火，这便是最踏实、最温暖的中国安全感。 ...

按年率计算，日本2025年第四季度产出增长0.2%，不及1.6%的预期；上一季度产出则下降2.3%。技术 性衰退通常被定义为连续两个季度的收缩。数据公布后，日经225指数开盘上涨0.12%，但日元兑美元 汇率下跌0.25%。明治安田的经济学家Maeda指出，"最新数据显示，经济复苏的动能显然不够强劲，消 费、资本支出和出口——这些我们原本预期增长的领域，现在来看都未达到预期。"三菱UFJ研究咨询 首席经济学家Shinichiro Kobayashi表示："央行加息不会导致经济停滞，日本央行的重点很可能是如何 控制通胀。" 日本官方数据显示，世界第四大经济体的国内生产总值（GDP）在第四季度仅增长0.1%，低于市场预 期的0.4%。日本内阁府的数据显示，日本经济2024年收缩0.2%，2025年增长1.1%。在第四季度经济增 长之前，上一季度的数据为-0.6%，向下修正后为-0.7%。 ...

2025年第四季度，日本经济勉强实现增长，扭转了前一季度的深度萎缩态势。2月16日，日本内阁公布 初步经济数据显示，当季实际GDP年化季率初值为0.2%，低于经济学家1.6%的预期中值；环比增长 0.1%，同样低于0.4%的市场预期。 在上一季度监管调整引发的暴跌过后，受滞后修复效应影响，当季民间住宅投资环比实际增长4.8%， 符合市场预期，但作为GDP最大组成部分的消费者支出仅增长0.1%，凸显家庭内需的脆弱性。截至 2025年，日本通胀率已连续四年徘徊在央行2%的目标上方，叠加2025年实际收入同比下滑1.3%、连续 四年缩水的居民购买力，进一步压制了国内消费动能。日本总务省数据显示，2025年日本两人以上家庭 恩格尔系数升至28.6%，创下1981年以来新高，直观反映出民众收支负担的加重。 即便经济复苏缺乏强劲支撑，相关疲软迹象也未改变市场对日本央行年内加息的预期。当前日本经济仍 面临人口老龄化、内需不足等长期结构性挑战，短期增长更多依赖一次性因素拉动，整体复苏格局尚未 出现实质性改善。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 凯投宏观亚太区 ...

周一公布的数据凸显了经济复苏的不均衡，除一次性因素外，增长缺乏强劲驱动力。即便如此，经济活 动的疲软迹象不太可能阻止日本央行在今年晚些时候提高基准利率。 日本经济在2025年第四季度仅实现微弱增长，扭转了上一季度大幅萎缩的局面，也为首相高市早苗在历 史性的选举胜利后推行积极财政支出政策提供了支持理由。 根据内阁府周一发布的报告，日本实际国内生产总值（GDP）在截至12月末的三个月中按年化计算增长 0.2%，低于经济学家预估的中位数1.6%的增速。作为GDP最大组成部分的消费者支出增长0.1%，显示 出国内需求的脆弱性，因居民家庭仍在应对持续四年高于日本央行2%目标的通胀。资本支出增长 0.2%。 根据内阁府周一发布的报告，日本实际国内生产总值（GDP）在截至12月末的三个月中按年化计算增长 0.2%，低于经济学家预估的中位数1.6%的增速。作为GDP最大组成部分的消费者支出增长0.1%，显示 出国内需求的脆弱性，因居民家庭仍在应对持续四年高于日本央行2%目标的通胀。资本支出增长 0.2%。 周一公布的数据凸显了经济复苏的不均衡，除一次性因素外，增长缺乏强劲驱动力。即便如此，经济活 动的疲软迹象不太可能阻止日本 ...

格隆汇2月16日｜机构分析称，新西兰联储预计将在周三维持官方现金利率2.25%不变，交易员关注经 济前景及通胀与利率的预期路径。新西兰联储过去两年已大幅降息，预计未来一年经济复苏将成为主要 特征。尽管如此，通胀前景仍存疑云——尽管尚未达到令人担忧的程度，通胀已开始抬头。新任新西兰 联储主席安娜·布雷曼预计将表明，若通胀恶化，已做好加息准备。不过，这很可能将是2026年末的事 情。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan's economy managed to achieve growth in Q4 2025, reversing the previous quarter's significant contraction, highlighting the effectiveness of Prime Minister Suga's aggressive spending policies [1] Economic Performance - The initial annualized quarterly GDP growth rate for Q4 was reported at 0.2%, which fell short of economists' median expectation of 1.6% [1] - Private residential investment saw a quarter-on-quarter real increase of 4.8%, aligning with expectations following regulatory adjustments that led to a sharp decline in the previous quarter [1] Consumer Spending - Consumer spending, the largest component of GDP, increased by 0.1%, indicating that household demand remains fragile due to inflation, which has consistently stayed above the Bank of Japan's 2% target over the next four years [1] Economic Recovery - The data released underscores the unevenness of the economic recovery, with a lack of strong driving forces persisting despite the presence of one-off factors [1] - Signs of economic activity weakness are unlikely to deter the Bank of Japan from raising the benchmark interest rate later this year [1]

Core Insights - Sri Lanka's President emphasized the need to attract high-quality private capital from the Commonwealth to support economic recovery, focusing on projects with financial viability and significant economic benefits [1][2] Group 1: Economic Recovery and Investment - The President aims to develop Colombo Port City into "South Asia's London Financial City" and enhance collaboration with established financial centers like Dubai and Singapore [1] - Priority sectors for private capital investment include tourism, infrastructure, and the digital economy, with a focus on job creation and empowering vulnerable groups amid ongoing poverty and inequality issues [1] - The President called for leveraging the CWEIC platform to diversify exports and expand into new markets, especially in the context of increasing global trade uncertainties [1] Group 2: Climate Resilience and Infrastructure - Lord Marland highlighted the importance of mobilizing large-scale private capital for developing low-carbon and resilient energy infrastructure, emphasizing the need for regulatory stability and well-structured public-private partnership (PPP) mechanisms [2] - The President noted the significant losses from the Dithwa cyclone, stressing that future investments must focus on climate resilience and disaster preparedness rather than mere repairs [2]

斯里兰卡《每日新闻》2月12日报道，斯央行行长维拉辛哈（Dr. P. Nandalal Weerasinghe）表示，为恢复 国家经济而实施的持续性改革和政策稳定性至关重要。他在科伦坡班达拉奈克国际会议厅举行的斯经济 学家协会（SLEA）年度国际会议上发表主旨演讲时作出上述表态。 维马拉拉特纳表示，要增加出口收入，必须推动农业向更具技术含量和商业化方向转型，将传统农业与 新技术结合；同时加快工业发展步伐，并提升服务业附加值和收入水平。他还强调，应提升人力资源技 能，加快教育体制改革，为经济转型提供支撑。 行长指出，为应对近期经济危机而采取的紧缩性货币和财政政策，已在抑制通胀和提升外汇储备水平方 面取得成效，为经济逐步恢复正增长奠定了基础。他强调，必须严格落实与国际货币基金组织达成的协 议以及与外部债权人的谈判成果，以确保债务的可持续性。 维拉辛哈认为，即使在政治和社会环境发生变化的情况下，也必须坚守经济运行的基本原则和政策纪 律，这是实现长期繁荣的关键。他指出，当前经济尚未完全复苏，在结构性改革、出口激励机制和政府 收入提升等方面仍面临重大挑战。 他强调，提升出口收入是实现经济繁荣的核心前提，同时应有效控制进 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market demand remains strong, with a reduction in the booking rate and a transformation towards dividend insurance expected to continuously optimize liability costs, alleviating pressure from interest margin losses [1] Group 1: Insurance Fund Utilization - By the end of 2025, the insurance industry's fund utilization balance reached 38.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 15.7% from the beginning of the year and 2.7% from the end of Q3, marking the highest annual growth rate since 2021 [2] - The investment scale of life insurance companies was 34.7 trillion yuan, accounting for 90.1% of the industry, with a year-to-date increase of 15.7% and a Q3 increase of 2.8% [2] - The investment scale of property insurance companies was 2.4 trillion yuan, representing 6.3% of the industry, with a year-to-date increase of 8.8% and a Q3 increase of 1.2% [2] Group 2: Stock and Fund Growth - By the end of 2025, the combined balance of "stocks + funds" for life and property insurance companies reached 5.7 trillion yuan, with stocks at 3.73 trillion yuan and funds at 1.97 trillion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 1.6 trillion yuan from the beginning of the year [3] - In Q4 alone, the "stocks + funds" scale increased by 110.1 billion yuan, with stocks increasing by 113.5 billion yuan and funds decreasing by 3.4 billion yuan [3] - The combined proportion of "stocks + funds" in total investment reached 15.4% by the end of 2025, up 2.6 percentage points from the beginning of the year, but down 0.1 percentage points from Q3 [3] Group 3: Asset Allocation Trends - By the end of 2025, the proportion of bank deposits decreased to 7.6%, down 0.8 percentage points from the beginning of the year and up 0.3 percentage points from Q3 [4] - The bond allocation continued to increase, with a proportion of 51.1% by the end of 2025, up 0.9 percentage points from the beginning of the year and 0.1 percentage points from Q3, although the pace of bond allocation has noticeably slowed compared to previous years [4] - The allocation to stocks + funds significantly increased, reaching a high of 15.3% by the end of 2025, up 2.9 percentage points from the beginning of the year, but down 0.1 percentage points from Q3 [4]

1. Report Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For stock index futures, maintain a long - term bullish view on the economy, and suggest buying long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [2] - For treasury bond futures, with the upward risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [2] 3. Summary by Directory (1) Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On February 12, the four major A - share stock indexes rose across the board. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.05%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.86%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.32%, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose 1.78%. The market turnover was 2.1608 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.1597 trillion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, the comprehensive, electronics, and power equipment sectors performed well, while the beauty care, commercial retail, and textile and apparel sectors performed poorly. From the perspective of market strength, IC>IM>IF>IH, and the number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 2,107, 96, and 3,273 respectively. The net inflows of institutional, main, large - investor, and retail funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were 10.1 billion yuan, - 11.3 billion yuan, - 15.3 billion yuan, and 16.5 billion yuan respectively, with changes of + 32.2 billion yuan, + 10 billion yuan, - 19.4 billion yuan, and - 22.8 billion yuan respectively [2] - **Basis and Annualized Yield**: The basis of IM, IC, IF, and IH next - month contracts was - 23.17, - 25.23, 2.78, and - 3.27 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of 3.32%, 3.57%, - 0.7%, and 1.27% respectively, and three - year historical quantiles of 99%, 98%, 58%, and 66% respectively [2] - **Trading Strategy**: In the medium and long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock index futures as a long - position substitute has certain excess returns. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [2] (2) Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: On February 12, treasury bond futures fluctuated slightly. Among the active contracts, TS decreased by 0.02%, TF remained flat, T increased by 0.02%, and TL decreased by 0.03% [2] - **Cash Bonds**: The current active contract is the 2603 contract. For the 2 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond was 250017.IB, with a yield change of + 0bps, corresponding net basis of 0.02, and IRR of 1.3%. For the 5 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond was 2500801.IB, with a yield change of - 0.25bps, corresponding net basis of - 0.014, and IRR of 1.68%. For the 10 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond was 250018.IB, with a yield change of - 1.1bps, corresponding net basis of 0.027, and IRR of 1.23%. For the 30 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond was 210005.IB, with a yield change of + 0bps, corresponding net basis of 0.028, and IRR of 1.29% [2] - **Funding Situation**: In terms of open - market operations, the central bank injected 566.5 billion yuan and withdrew 118.5 billion yuan, with a net injection of 448 billion yuan [2] - **Trading Strategy**: In the medium and long term, with the upward risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [2] (3) Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that except for infrastructure, the prosperity of all data exceeds the same period in previous years, and the infrastructure prosperity is similar to the same period in previous years [8]