Core Viewpoint - Soros Fund Management's latest 13F report reveals a significant shift in its investment strategy for Q1 2024, characterized by increased holdings in large-cap indices, utilities, and financial sectors, while substantially reducing exposure to technology and Chinese stocks, indicating a cautious outlook on the economic landscape [1][3]. Defensive Reallocation: Betting on Large-Cap Indices and Stable Income Assets - By the end of Q1, Soros Fund's top three new holdings were in defensive sectors, investing $96 million in American Electric Power (AEP), $93.6 million in Entergy Corp, and $56.66 million in JPMorgan Chase. The fund also significantly increased its position in the S&P 500 ETF while completely selling off the Russell 2000 small-cap ETF, highlighting a clear strategy of "selling small caps, buying large caps" [3]. - Analysts suggest that in the context of high interest rates and slowing economic growth, the utility sector's stable cash flow and strong anti-cyclical nature, along with large-cap stocks' better risk resilience compared to small-cap firms, reflect the fund's anticipation of increased market volatility [3]. Major Sell-Off: Technology Giants and Chinese Stocks Hit Hard - The fund completely exited 78 stocks and reduced holdings in 45 others, with technology and Chinese stocks being the hardest hit. Notable exits included Alibaba, TSMC, and Boeing, while Alphabet saw a 62.64% reduction and JD.com experienced a drastic 93.6% cut [4]. - The significant reduction in previously held semiconductor equipment firms and cloud computing companies is interpreted as a response to concerns over high valuations in the tech sector and a reassessment of exposure to Chinese stocks amid geopolitical risks [4]. Structural Increase: Betting on E-commerce Leaders and Energy Transition - Despite the sell-off, the fund increased its stake in Amazon by 30%, boosted FedEx holdings by 270%, and nearly 9-folded its position in First Solar. Even UnitedHealth Group, under investigation for insurance fraud, saw its holdings double to $1.12 billion [5]. - These moves align with the investment logic under the expectation of an "economic soft landing," where e-commerce logistics benefit from consumer resilience, renewable energy aligns with policy directions, and the healthcare sector maintains essential demand [5]. Institutional Interpretation: Preparing for Market Turbulence - Multiple Wall Street institutions interpret the fund's reallocation strategy as reflecting three strategic intentions: building a safety net through S&P 500 ETFs and utility stocks to hedge against potential recession risks, narrowing focus in the tech sector to prioritize artificial intelligence and other certain areas, and reducing exposure to emerging markets, particularly in geopolitically sensitive regions [6][7]. - Morgan Stanley strategists noted that the shift from aggressive growth to value defense indicates institutional investors are gearing up for a potentially prolonged high-interest rate environment and market volatility [7].

周四（5月15日）亚市早盘，市场屏息以待即将于20:30公布的美国4月零售销售数据（俗称"恐怖数据"）。当前市场预期该数据月率仅增长0.3%，但多位经 济学家警告，受关税政策冲击、消费信心下滑及通胀黏性影响，实际数据可能不及预期，进而引发金融市场剧烈波动。 一、数据背景：关税冲击与消费疲软的双重阴影 关税政策的滞后效应显现 特朗普政府自3月起对进口商品加征的"对等关税"已逐步传导至终端消费市场。美国商务部数据显示，4月进口商品价格指数同比上涨3.2%，其中汽车、电子 产品等关税敏感品类涨幅超5%。尽管中美关税协议落地暂缓了部分压力，但美国对欧盟、日韩等贸易伙伴的关税谈判仍存变数，企业普遍推迟涨价以观望 政策走向，导致4月零售销售数据可能因需求抑制而表现疲软。 消费信心与支出能力双降 若数据疲软，美股科技股可能面临获利回吐压力，资金或从股市回流黄金等避险资产。全球最大黄金ETF（SPDR）持仓量已连续三日减少，但若数据爆 冷，可能触发空头回补，单日增仓或超10吨。 美联储4月消费者信心指数跌至52.2，为2023年11月以来最低水平，反映出高利率环境与债务压力对居民消费意愿的压制。此外，4月非农就业新增17.5 ...

Core Insights - The sentiment towards U.S. assets is cautious, with "long gold" being the most crowded trade for the second consecutive month, as 58% of investors believe it is the current most crowded trade [1][3] - Investors' attitudes towards the U.S. dollar have significantly changed, with 57% considering it overvalued, marking the lowest allocation to the dollar since May 2006 [1][7][12] - Despite a slight improvement in global economic outlook, 81% of investors still expect the economy to enter "stagflation" [2][11] Investor Sentiment - 62% of investors view tariffs as the biggest tail risk for a global recession, while 43% believe tariffs could lead to systemic credit events [2][18] - Cash levels among investors have decreased from 4.8% to 4.5%, slightly below the long-term average of 4.7% since 1999 [14] - 61% of investors now expect a "soft landing" for the global economy, a significant increase from 37% in April [14] Asset Allocation Changes - There is a notable shift in asset allocation, with a net 38% of investors underweighting U.S. stocks, the lowest level since May 2023 [23] - European stocks have seen a 13 percentage point increase in allocation to a net 35% overweight, reversing the decline from April [23] - Technology stocks have experienced a significant 17 percentage point increase in allocation, the largest monthly gain since March 2013 [23] - Energy stocks are now at a net 35% underweight, marking a historical low [23] Economic Outlook - A net 59% of investors expect the economy to weaken, showing the largest monthly improvement since October 2024, despite a 66 percentage point drop from the peak in December 2024 [16] - 46% of investors anticipate two interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, while 25% expect three cuts [19]

Group 1 - "Long gold" has become the most crowded trade for the second consecutive month, with 58% of investors considering it the current most crowded trade, significantly higher than the second-ranked "long tech giants" at 22% [2] - Gold is viewed as the most overvalued asset since 2008, with a net 45% of investors believing it is overvalued, an increase from 34% in April [5] - Investor sentiment towards the US dollar has shifted significantly, with a net 17% of investors holding a low allocation stance, marking a 19-year low since May 2006 [8] Group 2 - A net 57% of investors believe the US dollar is overvalued, a decrease of 12 percentage points from the previous month, representing the largest monthly decline since September 2023 [11] - Despite a slight improvement in global investor sentiment, it remains at a pessimistic level, with 61% of investors expecting a "soft landing" for the global economy, up from 37% in April [16] - A net 59% of investors expect the economy to weaken, showing the largest monthly improvement since October 2024, although expectations are still down 66 percentage points from the peak in December 2024 [19] Group 3 - 62% of investors view tariffs as the biggest tail risk for a global recession, with 43% believing tariffs could lead to a systemic credit event, followed by the US shadow banking system at 25% [21] - Investors are significantly adjusting their asset allocations, with a net 38% underweight in US stocks, the lowest level since May 2023, while eurozone stock allocation increased by 13 percentage points to a net 35% overweight [26] - There has been a substantial increase in tech stock allocation by 17 percentage points, marking the largest monthly increase since March 2013, while energy stock allocation has dropped to a net 35% underweight, the lowest on record [26]

（原标题：隔夜美股 | 三大指数大幅收高 中国金龙指数涨5.4%） 智通财经APP获悉，周一，三大指数大幅收高，中美两国经过周末谈判后同意临时性大幅降低关税，提 高了市场对贸易战局势缓从而避免经济陷入衰退的希望。本周市场关注CPI与PPI等通胀数据。 【美股】截至收盘，道指涨1160.72点，涨幅为2.81%，报42410.10点；纳指涨779.43点，涨幅为4.35%， 报18708.34点；标普500指数涨184.28点，涨幅为3.26%，报5844.19点。英伟达(NVDA.US)涨5.4%，特斯 拉(TSLA.US)涨6.7%，苹果(AAPL.US)涨6.3%。纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨5.4%，阿里巴巴(BABA.US)涨 近6%，万国数据(GDS.US)涨14%。 【欧股】德国DAX30指数涨73.99点，涨幅0.31%，报23563.43点；英国富时100指数涨52.53点，涨幅 0.61%，报8607.33点；法国CAC40指数涨106.35点，涨幅1.37%，报7850.10点；欧洲斯托克50指数涨 83.71点，涨幅1.58%，报5393.45点；西班牙IBEX35指数涨116.34点，涨幅0 ...

尽管美国股市在特朗普关税声明引发的初期动荡后已现反弹，但债券市场深处却依然"麻烦"不断。 当前，美债市场的核心问题，是长短期收益率走势的显著背离，短期国债收益率在市场对美联储降息的预期下有所下 行，然而，作为经济融资成本关键基准的长期国债收益率却不降反升。 数据显示，自4月2日以来，基准10年期美国国债收益率已攀升至约4.38%，而短期美国国债收益率正在下降。 大多数投资者和分析师认为，如果美国今年陷入衰退且美联储大幅降息，长期收益率理论上应该下降。 但担忧在于，它们可能不会下降太多，导致按揭贷款和其他类型债务的利率在央行希望鼓励借贷时仍保持高位。 这种罕见的收益率分化，不仅直接推高了消费者和企业的借贷成本，更为关键的是，它正对美联储期望通过降息来刺 激经济增长的传统政策路径构成严峻挑战。 收益率分化背后的驱动因素 这一分化的主要原因是对通胀的不确定性。 虽然投资者认为未来几年通胀和利率将会下降，但特朗普反复无常的贸易政策使这些预测的确定性降低。 因此，投资者要求更高的收益率来补偿持有长期国债的风险——这种额外补偿被称为"期限溢价"。Capital Group固定收 益投资组合经理Tim Ng表示，债券市场反 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market has shown strong performance, with the S&P 500 achieving its longest winning streak in 20 years, driven by positive non-farm payroll data and a rebound in Chinese assets [1][3][11]. Economic Data - The U.S. added 177,000 jobs in April, significantly exceeding the expected 138,000, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%. This data is interpreted as a signal of "economic soft landing," alleviating concerns over GDP contraction [3]. Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 rose by 1.47%, marking its ninth consecutive day of gains, while the Dow Jones and Nasdaq also recorded similar increases of 1.39% and 1.51%, respectively [3]. - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increased by 3.5%, with notable gains in Chinese stocks such as Century Internet (+13%), XPeng Motors (+5%), and Alibaba (+4%) [11]. Sector Performance - The performance of the "Big Seven" tech stocks was mixed, with Meta rising by 4.34% due to advancements in AI and recovering ad revenues, while Apple fell by 3.74% after disappointing earnings [6][8]. Trade Relations - Recent developments indicate a potential easing of trade tensions, with the Chinese Ministry of Commerce noting ongoing negotiations with the U.S. regarding tariff issues. This has positively impacted both U.S. and Chinese markets [15]. Investment Outlook - Analysts express a cautiously optimistic view on the global market, highlighting potential sector rotations and the attractiveness of Chinese assets. Goldman Sachs raised its target price for the MSCI China Index by 15%, citing unexpected government growth policies and signs of corporate profit recovery [18]. - Various institutions suggest a diversified investment approach to manage risks and capture opportunities, especially in light of anticipated market volatility in 2025 [21][22].

近日，俄罗斯总统普京召开经济专题会议，评估实体部门、金融和服务业的现状和发展趋势。会上，普 京提出俄罗斯经济"软着陆"问题。专家表示，俄罗斯引导经济"软着陆"目的在于应对可能出现的经济危 机，俄罗斯未来经济政策或将经历调整。 （文章来源：经济日报） 会上，普京总结了今年以来俄罗斯的经济形势。他表示，今年俄罗斯国内生产总值（GDP）的增长动力 将弱于去年。今年1月份至2月份，俄GDP增速为1.9%，制造业产出同比增长5%，通货膨胀率超过 10%，仍处于高位。住房建筑领域增长乏力，开发商推出的新项目数量减少，银行的贷款组合持续下 降。俄罗斯国家财政继续支撑经济发展，今年1月份至3月份，联邦预算赤字总额达2.2万亿卢布。 普京表示，当前国际经济形势越来越复杂，全球竞争加剧，大宗商品市场和金融市场剧烈波动。在此背 景下，客观地分析当前的经济形势极为重要。"我们讨论的是一定程度上的'软着陆'，以维持宏观经济 指标，最重要的是，抑制通货膨胀。"普京说。 今年以来，俄罗斯经济发展呈现两大趋势。一方面，经济增长放缓。俄罗斯经济发展部数据显示，2025 年1月份俄GDP同比增长3.0%，2月份GDP同比增长0.8%，年初以来平 ...

近期， 市场目光高度聚焦于"4月2日" ，即美国可能升级进口关税的日子。 更值得警惕的是，由黑石(BX)、KKR、凯雷(CG)、阿波罗(APO)和几大银行股（摩根大通、美国银行、富国银行、花旗）组成的私募股权指数在过去两个月下 跌了22%，表明市场压力明显加剧。 然而，美国银行策略师Michael Hartnett认为， "4月2日"或被过度炒作，真正的"分水岭"是4月4日公布的美国3月非农就业数据。 Hartnett分析称，为避免引发第二波通胀压力，特朗普政府可能会刻意淡化4月2日的影响。而4月4日的就业报告将更清晰地显示经济是否实现软着陆，并为4月 市场方向提供更可靠的指引，因而更值得市场关注。 4月4日：真正的市场转折点，两种可能的市场反应 在最新 "资金流向报告"（Flow Show）中，Hartnett表示，特朗普政府可能会刻意淡化4月2日的影响，而非像市场预期的那样大肆渲染。 其主要原因是避免引发第二波通胀压力——考虑到通胀仍是美国经济和政治的敏感话题，特朗普政府有充分动机避免关税政策引发新一轮价格上涨。 相比之下，Hartnett强调4月4日发布的3月就业报告将成为判断经济软着陆或硬着陆的关键指 ...