Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions, with 19 decision-makers split into three camps regarding interest rate policies, indicating a significant "hawk-dove" debate [1][5] - Dallas Fed President Logan's strong stance suggests that the current interest rate level of 4.25% may persist for 6 to 12 months, providing theoretical support for high interest rate policies despite a slight decline in inflation data [1][5] - Political pressure is mounting as President Trump criticizes Fed Chair Powell and calls for immediate interest rate cuts, which could influence the Fed's decision-making process [1][3] Group 2 - The global trade landscape is volatile, with the Trump administration imposing high tariffs on several countries, while simultaneously lifting tariffs on China, leading to unpredictable market reactions [3][5] - Employment data shows a mixed picture, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 147,000 in June, but private sector job growth nearly stagnant when excluding certain sectors [5][7] - Market indicators are fluctuating, with the probability of a rate cut in September dropping from 75% to 54.4%, reflecting uncertainty in economic conditions [5][7] Group 3 - Gold prices are hovering around $3,330, while the dollar index has fallen below 97, marking a new low since February 2022, indicating shifts in investor sentiment [7] - The stock market is reacting unevenly, with the Nasdaq reaching a historical high while the Dow Jones experienced a significant drop of 436 points, showcasing the divergent performance of technology stocks [7] - Economists at the New York Fed are analyzing the complexities of the Fed's June meeting minutes to navigate the challenges of inflation, employment, and economic resilience [7][5]

Group 1: Retail Sales Performance - In June, U.S. retail sales increased by 0.6% month-over-month, reaching $720.1 billion, reversing a 0.9% decline in May and significantly exceeding market expectations of 0.1% [2][3] - Year-over-year, retail sales grew by 3.9%, up from 3.3% in May, indicating a sustained recovery in consumer spending [2] - Core retail sales, excluding automobiles and parts, rose by 0.5%, surpassing the expected 0.3% [2] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The retail sector showed a mixed performance, with health and personal care stores seeing a 7.1% year-over-year increase, while gas stations and electronics stores experienced declines of 4.0% and 1.5%, respectively [2][3] - Non-store retailers (online merchants) reported a 4.5% year-over-year sales increase, and food services and drinking places grew by 6.6%, highlighting the ongoing vitality of online and service consumption [2] Group 3: Trade Price Trends - The import price index rose by 0.1% month-over-month in June, ending a 0.4% decline in May, with non-fuel import prices increasing by 0.1% [6][7] - Export prices showed stronger performance, increasing by 0.5% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year, marking the highest level since January 2025 [6][7] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The synchronized recovery in retail and trade price data underscores the resilience of the U.S. economy amid tariff uncertainties, with strong consumer demand supporting import needs [7] - The long-term low energy prices may suppress investment willingness in related sectors, while ongoing tariff concerns could shift from short-term consumption stimulation to long-term confidence suppression [7]

Economic Growth - China's GDP for the first half of the year reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, exceeding market expectations [2] - The performance of China's economy indicates a strong resilience against the impacts of the US-China trade war, supported by increased domestic investment in large projects and robust export growth [2][3] - The data suggests that China is on track to achieve the government's annual growth target of around 5% [2] Trade Performance - In the first half of the year, China's total goods trade (imports and exports) reached 21.79 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, setting a historical high for the same period [3] - Despite ongoing trade tensions with the US, China's export resilience is highlighted, with exports accounting for 16% of the global total [3] - China's high-tech manufacturing sector has shown significant growth, with an increase of 9.7%, indicating a successful transition to higher value-added production [3] Export Dynamics - Following the trade truce agreement in May, China's exports grew by 5.8% year-on-year in June, demonstrating strong export resilience [2] - Chinese automotive sales in the EU continue to rise, despite the upcoming additional taxes on electric vehicles from China, reflecting the growing demand for Chinese cars in the European market [2]

Report Information - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: July 16, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper continued its weak oscillating trend, hitting a low of 77,690. It has reversed all the gains since late June due to the early implementation of US tariffs, which pressured both the Shanghai and London markets. The premium between the spot and futures of Shanghai copper has significantly narrowed, and the spread between contracts 08 - 09 has dropped to 100. The LME 0 - 3 contango structure has widened to 62. Meanwhile, the macro - tariff disturbances have increased, and the US dollar index has slightly risen. The factors that previously drove up the copper price have all reversed. [11] - With the opening of the domestic import window, the tightness in the spot market will continue to ease as imported supplies increase. The ratio of cancelled warrants in the LME market has dropped to 11.4%, and the spread between tomorrow - next also shows a contango structure. It is expected that there will be signs of spot supply relief in both the Shanghai and London markets, weakening the support of the spot end for the copper price. However, the medium - term supply - demand remains strong. China's economic resilience shown in the second - quarter data indicates decent macro - demand performance. Therefore, the previous oscillating range is still expected to strongly support the copper price. [11] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai copper's price has reversed gains since late June, with the spot - futures premium narrowing and spreads changing. The LME market also shows a more obvious contango structure. The macro - environment has become less favorable for copper prices, but the medium - term supply - demand fundamentals are still strong, and the previous price range is a strong support. [11] 2. Industry News - The National Energy Administration has officially included the Ganjiang - Gannan 1000 - kV UHV AC power transmission and transformation project in the national power development plan. The project plans to build a 1000 - kV substation in Gannan with 2 transformers of 3 million kVA each and 2 1000 - kV AC transmission lines about 600 kilometers long, which is a key step in expanding the UHV backbone grid in Central China during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period. [12] - Zhongtiaoshan maintained stable production in the first half of the year, achieving full - load processing of concentrates. Cathode copper production reached 100.51% of the plan, anode slime production reached 116.99% of the plan, gold content in anode slime reached 100.07% of the plan, and silver content in anode slime reached 126.64% of the plan. Its operating income increased by 8.45% year - on - year, achieving stable profitability. [12] - Liangshan Mining's 150,000 - ton/year anode copper renovation project is in the pre - project stage, and Liangshan Copper's 125,000 - ton/year cathode copper refining project is accelerating, aiming for trial production by the end of the year. [13] - In June 2025, China imported 2.35 million physical tons of copper ore concentrates, a year - on - year increase of 1.71% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.9%. From January to June 2025, China's cumulative imports of copper ore concentrates reached 14.754 million physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.4%. [13]

Group 1 - The strategic partnership between Saudi Arabia and China is deepening, focusing on enhancing bilateral economic relations amidst complex global geopolitical and trade dynamics [2][5] - The chairman of the Saudi-Chinese Business Council emphasizes the importance of cooperation in mining, manufacturing, and advanced technology sectors, aligning with Saudi Arabia's industrialization goals [3][8] - The need for multilateral cooperation is highlighted as a response to rising protectionism and globalization challenges, with both countries committed to a win-win development approach [5][8] Group 2 - Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 aims to diversify its economy away from oil dependency, promoting sustainable development and encouraging private sector investment in renewable energy [9] - The potential for collaboration in clean energy is significant, leveraging Saudi Arabia's renewable resources and China's advanced technology in the sector [9] - Financial technology development is seen as a key area for enhancing bilateral trade and investment, with both countries recognizing the importance of digital solutions and payment systems [9]

Group 1: Stock and Bond - Stock index long positions are recommended as data reflects China's economic resilience and market risk aversion eases [2] - Treasury bond long positions should be held lightly as market interest rates consolidate and Treasury bonds rebound narrowly [2] Group 2: Black Sector - Shanxi's mainstream steel mills limit crude steel production by about 6 million tons, and the supply of finished products may shrink under the "anti-involution" trend. The black sector has risen significantly driven by sentiment [3] Group 3: Gold - Market risk aversion rebounds due to Trump's tax increase letters, boosting the gold price. Gold is expected to maintain high-level volatility [4] Group 4: Log - Log spot market prices are weak, with a 10-yuan decline in the Jiangsu market. Supply pressure eases, and the impact of log futures delivery on prices should be noted [5] Group 5: Rubber - Weather in Southeast Asian rubber-producing areas eases, but the natural rubber price remains under pressure as supply-demand contradictions are not significantly alleviated [6] Group 6: Soybean and Bean Meal - The estimated reduction in US soybean planting area is limited, and the soybean production outlook is positive. With high imports and rising inventory, bean meal is expected to be weak [7] Group 7: Oil and Chemicals - Oil prices face a callback risk, and PX, PTA, and MEC are affected by supply-demand changes and cost fluctuations [8] Group 8: Pig - The pig price may continue to rise in the short term, and southern China may lead a new round of price increases after July [9]

Core Insights - The U.S. labor market showed strong performance in June, with job additions exceeding market expectations, boosting confidence in economic resilience and driving up the dollar and major U.S. stock indices [1][2] Employment Report Highlights - Non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000, surpassing the market expectation of 110,000, and revised May data to 144,000 [2] - The unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%, the lowest level since February 2025 [2] - Wage growth showed signs of slowing, with average hourly earnings rising 0.2% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year, both below May's growth and market expectations [2] - Labor force participation rate decreased to 62.3%, the lowest since 2022, raising concerns about the breadth of economic recovery [2] - Private sector job growth was weak, adding only 74,000 jobs, the lowest since October 2024 [2] - Manufacturing employment continued to decline, indicating pressure in certain economic sectors [2] Market Reactions - Following the employment report, the dollar strengthened, with the USD index rising approximately 0.6% [5] - Major U.S. stock indices reached new highs during intraday trading but showed caution near the close as investors digested signals of slowing wage growth and declining labor participation [5] - Macro uncertainties remain, particularly with the upcoming expiration of U.S. tariff suspensions on July 9, raising concerns about potential trade risks [5] Interest Rate Outlook - Despite the mixed signals in the employment data, the overall strong performance has led to a reassessment of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut timeline [2] - The probability of a rate cut in September is currently at 66.7%, slightly down from earlier in the week, while the probability of maintaining rates in July has risen to 94.8% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Bostic suggests that maintaining a wait-and-see approach to interest rates is appropriate, particularly in light of the economy's resilience [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Economic Outlook - The economy is showing resilience, which influences the decision to keep interest rates steady [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Bostic believes that maintaining a wait-and-see approach to interest rates is appropriate, especially considering the resilience of the economy [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Economic Outlook - The current economic conditions are characterized by resilience, which supports the decision to keep interest rates steady [1] Monetary Policy - A cautious stance on interest rates is deemed suitable, reflecting the Fed's strategy to monitor economic developments before making further adjustments [1]

美联储博斯蒂克：呼吁在充满不确定性和经济保持韧性之际要有耐心。 ...