央视网消息：《关于进一步促进民间投资发展的若干措施》（以下简称《若干措施》）近日出台，提出了13项政策举措，从扩大准 入、打通堵点、强化保障三个主要方面，支持民间资本参与重点领域投资、支持民间资本更多投向生产性服务业领域。政策措施力 求畅通民营企业投资渠道、破解民间投资发展堵点、积极支持民营企业扩大有效投资。 重点领域项目民间资本持股比例可超10% 《若干措施》提出，铁路、核电、水电等重点领域项目，鼓励支持民间资本参与，并明确民间资本持股比例可在10%以上。政策既 明确了可参与的重点领域，并量化了具备条件的项目持股比例。 民间投资在多领域将有更多准入机会 国家发展改革委投资司副司长关鹏表示，比如近年来，持续推动核电等重大项目引入民间资本，有的核电项目最高参股比例已达 20%。 国家发展改革委国家信息中心产业经济研究室主任魏琪嘉表示，鼓励和吸引更多的民间资本参与国家重大工程、重点产业链供应链 项目建设，对于拓宽民间资本流通渠道，寻找更多投资机会，更好提升资金效率将发挥重要作用。充分体现了政策的精准性、稳健 性，对积极稳妥促进民间资本的投资具有重要的意义。 国家发展改革委产业发展司副司长李春芳表示，引导各类经营主 ...

Group 1 - The strong domestic market is a strategic support for Chinese-style modernization [1] - The implementation of special actions to boost consumption includes expanding the supply of quality consumer goods and services, increasing direct consumer-oriented policies, and enhancing government investment in people's livelihoods [3][4] - The proposal emphasizes the integration of promoting people's livelihoods and consumption with investments in both physical and human resources, aiming to enhance the internal dynamics and reliability of the domestic circulation [4] Group 2 - The proposal outlines important measures to eliminate obstacles to the construction of a unified national market, including standardizing market rules, addressing "involution" competition, and improving market supervision and enforcement [6] - These measures are expected to effectively remove various market barriers and fully unleash the dividends of China's super-large-scale market [6]

Core Insights - China's new energy vehicle (NEV) production and sales have ranked first globally for ten consecutive years, with a projected global market share of 63.7% in 2024 and an estimated sales volume of approximately 16 million units by 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 46.15% during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1] Industry Overview - The lithium battery industry is expected to reach a scale of 1.2 trillion yuan in 2024, with growth primarily driven by power batteries and energy storage batteries [1] - China's share of the global power battery market is anticipated to increase from 38.35% in 2020 to 68.79% by 2025, while domestic energy storage lithium battery companies are projected to account for over 90% of global shipments [1] Future Outlook - During the 15th Five-Year Plan, the sales growth rate of new energy vehicles is expected to significantly exceed the overall industry growth rate, with a continuous increase in market penetration [1] - Demand for energy storage lithium batteries is forecasted to grow faster than that for power batteries, becoming the primary growth driver [1] - Accelerated technological iteration in lithium batteries and the expansion of application scenarios will contribute to the industry's shift towards a green and low-carbon direction [1] - The construction of a unified large market and the rectification of internal competition will have a profound impact on industry development during the 15th Five-Year Plan [1] Investment Index - The New Energy Vehicle ETF (159806) tracks the CS New Energy Vehicle Index (399976), which selects 50 listed companies involved in lithium batteries, charging piles, and new energy vehicles from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, focusing on sectors such as batteries, passenger vehicles, and energy metals to reflect the overall performance of the new energy vehicle industry chain [1]

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand as a strategic foundation for the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on the construction of a unified national market [1] - The core obstacles to the unified market construction are identified as market segmentation and regulatory barriers, which the framework of "Five Unifications and One Openness" aims to address [1] - The framework includes unifying market basic institutional rules, eliminating qualification recognition barriers, standardizing government behavior, and enhancing anti-monopoly enforcement [1] Group 2 - According to the Ministry of Commerce, cross-provincial trade is expected to grow by 22% year-on-year by 2025, indicating accelerated regional market integration [2] - The China Macroeconomic Research Institute forecasts an 18% reduction in domestic commodity circulation costs by 2026, with the market size expected to exceed 80 trillion yuan [2] - The State Council Development Research Center projects that the unified market construction will unleash the potential of a super-large market, with service consumption expected to rise to 55% by 2030 [2] - According to Zhitong Finance, policy-driven institutional dividends are anticipated to attract global resources, with cross-border investment potentially reaching 200 billion dollars by 2025 [2] - Everbright Securities highlights that the unified market construction will directly benefit logistics, commerce, and data service sectors, suggesting a focus on leading companies with national network layouts to capitalize on cross-regional service and data element advantages [2]

Core Viewpoint - The combination of an effective market and an active government is a crucial principle for China's economic and social development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1] Group 1: Government and Market Relationship - The relationship between government and market is central to building a high-level socialist market economy [1] - Development planning serves as a manifestation of the combination of the "visible hand" and the "invisible hand" in macroeconomic governance [1] Group 2: Role of Development Planning - For a late-developing country like China, economic growth and structural changes occur relatively quickly, making development planning essential for guiding the catch-up process and mitigating risks [1] - Development planning aids business entities in assessing internal and external development environments, serving as a critical reference for production, operations, and investment decisions [1] Group 3: Effective Use of Government's Role - The government must strike a balance in its "visible hand" approach, particularly in the context of building a unified national market [1] - The government can enhance its role by providing basic public services, promoting the urbanization of migrant populations, and creating a fair market environment [1] - The government should appropriately regulate where necessary and allow more freedom where applicable to maximize effectiveness [1]

Core Objectives - The primary goal is to achieve "significant results in high-quality development," with quantifiable indicators for economic growth, total factor productivity, and resident consumption rate[4] - The proposal emphasizes the importance of a unified national market and significant progress in new industrialization, information technology, urbanization, and agricultural modernization as evaluation criteria[5] Key Strategies - Domestic strategies focus on "boosting consumption" and "expanding effective investment" to strengthen the domestic economic cycle[4] - Internationally, the strategy involves "institutional opening-up" to align with international high standards and expand development space[4] Industrial Layout - The proposal outlines directions for traditional industries, emerging and future industries, services, and infrastructure, aiming to optimize and enhance the traditional industrial base[6] - Specific traditional industries mentioned include mining, metallurgy, chemicals, light industry, textiles, machinery, shipbuilding, and construction[6] Innovation and Technology - The focus is on "accelerating high-level technological self-reliance" and leading the development of new productive forces, with an emphasis on original innovation and key core technology breakthroughs[8] - The proposal highlights the importance of artificial intelligence and digital technology in driving innovation[8] Market Reforms - The proposal stresses the need to eliminate barriers to a unified national market and promote market-oriented reforms, including the efficient allocation of various resources[9] - It aims to address local protectionism and market segmentation, with a focus on enhancing the socialist market economy system[9] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy shifts towards enhancing sustainability and efficiency, with an emphasis on active fiscal measures and improving the tax system[10] - The goal is to maintain a reasonable macro tax burden while increasing central government financial support for key areas[10] Consumption and Investment - A systematic framework for "boosting consumption" is established, focusing on enhancing residents' consumption capacity and upgrading consumption supply[11] - The proposal emphasizes increasing government investment in livelihood projects and safety capabilities, adapting to demographic changes[12] International Trade - The proposal elevates "institutional opening-up" as a core strategy, focusing on aligning with international trade rules and promoting digital and service trade[14] - It aims to facilitate foreign investment by reducing negative lists and enhancing the internationalization of the RMB[14]

Group 1: Economic Trends - The Huachuang Macro WEI Index increased to 5.3% as of October 19, up 1.19 points from the previous week [2] - Port container throughput showed a slight rebound, with a 3.6% increase compared to the previous week, while the year-on-year growth rate decreased to 4.3% [2][27] - Oil prices rebounded significantly, with WTI crude oil closing at $61.5 per barrel, up 6.9%, and Brent crude at $65.9 per barrel, up 7.6% [2][44] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Retail sales of passenger cars turned negative, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 5.7% as of October 18, compared to a 6% increase in September [3][16] - The growth rate of non-durable goods consumption declined, with express delivery volume showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.8% [3][16] - Real estate sales saw a significant drop, with residential sales in 67 cities down 23% year-on-year as of October 24, compared to a 1.2% decline in September [3][16] Group 3: Production and Industry - Cement dispatch rates fluctuated, with a rate of 38.4% as of October 17, slightly up from the previous week [19] - Industrial production showed a decline in coal throughput at Qinhuangdao Port, with a year-on-year increase of only 4.6% as of October 24, down from 19% in September [19][23] - The construction sector's apparent consumption of rebar was down 14% year-on-year as of October 24 [19] Group 4: Policy and Investment - New policy financial tools have been issued, totaling over 330 billion yuan, expected to drive total project investment of 4.8 trillion yuan [4][49] - The focus of the recent Central Committee meeting shifted from "supply-side reform" to "building a unified market," indicating a change in policy direction [4][23] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the need for modernization in industry governance during the recent meeting [4][23] Group 5: Trade Dynamics - The number of ships from China to the U.S. saw a significant year-on-year decline of 28.6% as of October 25 [27][29] - The overall import value from the U.S. showed a slight rebound, while imports from China remained at a low level, with a year-on-year decrease of 24.8% [28][29] - Container shipping rates for exports from Shanghai increased by 7.1% in the week ending October 24 [27] Group 6: Price Movements - Prices for pork and eggs continued to decline, with pork prices down 1.7% and egg prices down 2% [45] - The overall commodity price index increased by 0.9%, while global commodity prices rose significantly, with the RJ/CRB index up 3.3% [43][44] - The price of industrial silicon futures decreased by 0.5%, while polysilicon futures dropped by 4.1% [44][45]

Economic Indicators - The Huachuang Macro WEI index rose to 5.3% as of October 19, up 1.19 points from the previous week[2] - Port container throughput increased by 3.6% as of October 24, compared to a decrease of 6.1% the previous week, with a year-on-year decline of 4.3%[2] - Crude oil prices rebounded significantly, with WTI at $61.5 per barrel (up 6.9%) and Brent at $65.9 per barrel (up 7.6%)[2] Consumer Trends - Retail sales of passenger cars showed a negative growth of -5.7% year-on-year as of October 18, compared to a positive growth of 6% in September[2] - Express delivery volume growth fell to -0.8% year-on-year as of October 19, down from 12% in September[2] - Residential property sales in 67 cities saw a year-on-year decline of -23% as of October 24, compared to -1.2% in September[2] Production and Investment - The asphalt operating rate averaged 36.2% from September 11 to October 15, up 9.25 percentage points from the previous period[6] - New policy financial tools have injected over 330 billion yuan, expected to drive total project investment of 4.8 trillion yuan, with over 75% directed to 12 major economic provinces[48] Interest Rates and Debt - As of October 24, the yields on 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bonds were 1.4716%, 1.6174%, and 1.8486%, respectively, with slight increases from the previous week[64] - The issuance of new local government bonds reached 171.9 billion yuan in the week of October 27, with a total of 3.96 trillion yuan expected for the year[47]

Core Points - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China outlined the "15th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing the importance of achieving socialist modernization by 2035 [1][3] - The plan focuses on economic growth, technological self-reliance, and enhancing domestic demand, with a clear commitment to improving people's livelihoods and promoting common prosperity [1][5] Group 1: Economic and Social Development Goals - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to achieve a reasonable growth rate while building a modern industrial system centered on advanced manufacturing [1][7] - The emphasis on enhancing domestic circulation and breaking down barriers to a unified national market indicates a strategic shift towards internal economic resilience [6][8] Group 2: Technological Innovation and Self-Reliance - The inclusion of "new quality productivity" in the planning framework highlights the importance of technological innovation and self-reliance as key drivers for future growth [3][5] - The plan aims to significantly increase investment in basic research and support for original innovation and key core technology breakthroughs [5][6] Group 3: Manufacturing Sector Focus - The plan stresses maintaining a reasonable proportion of manufacturing in the economy, with a focus on advanced manufacturing as a backbone of the modern industrial system [7][8] - The development of strategic emerging industries and future industries is seen as crucial for enhancing competitiveness in the manufacturing sector [7][12] Group 4: Capital Market Outlook - The capital market is expected to show a "long-term" and "steady" trend, supported by government emphasis on its development and the overall economic environment [9][12] - The current valuation of A-shares is considered reasonable, providing a favorable condition for recovery and growth in the capital market [9][12]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - "15th Five-Year Plan" focuses on the expansion of aggregate demand. In terms of aggregate, demand policies gain importance; in demand structure, there are changes in fiscal fund use; in industry structure, it emphasizes high - quality development [2]. - The reform enters a critical stage during the "15th Five - Year Plan". There are adjustments in market - government relations, subject expressions, and a greater emphasis on opening - up [3]. - Real estate becomes a part of people's livelihood during the "15th Five - Year Plan". High - quality real estate development is included in people's livelihood, and a new real estate development pattern is taking shape [3]. Summary by Directory Macro Events - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held from October 20th to 23rd, 2025. A press conference was held on October 24th to introduce and interpret the spirit of the meeting [1]. Two Plenary Session Communiqué Comparative Analysis First Part: Meeting Background - The 20th Fourth Plenary Session discussed the "15th Five - Year Plan" for national economic and social development. The 19th Fifth Plenary Session discussed the "14th Five - Year Plan" and the long - term goals for 2035 [7][9]. Second Part: Historical Evaluation - The 20th Fourth Plenary Session highly evaluated the achievements of the "14th Five - Year Plan" and the work of the Politburo since the 20th Third Plenary Session. The 19th Fifth Plenary Session evaluated the work since the 19th Fourth Plenary Session and the achievements of the "13th Five - Year Plan". The evaluation of the economy shows increased confidence [13][15][19]. Third Part: Stage Positioning - The "15th Five - Year Plan" is a crucial period for laying the foundation for basic socialist modernization. The global competition shifts from strategic defense to strategic stalemate, and domestic policy initiative will gradually increase [20][23]. Fourth Part: Principle Goals - Principles: The "15th Five - Year Plan" re - emphasizes "taking economic construction as the center", adds "putting people first", and removes "deepening supply - side structural reform" [24][31]. - Goals: The "15th Five - Year Plan" emphasizes significant achievements in high - quality development and new breakthroughs in comprehensive deep - level reform [25][31]. Fifth Part: Specific Requirements - Industry: The "15th Five - Year Plan" emphasizes "intelligent, green, and integrated" development, adds "space power" and "transportation power", and adjusts the descriptions of manufacturing and services [32][45]. - Science and Technology: It continues to emphasize high - level scientific and technological self - reliance and coordinates the "education, science, and talent" strategies [32][45]. - Market: It maintains the strategy of expanding domestic demand, with a more balanced supply - demand policy and a change in demand structure [33][46]. - Reform: It emphasizes the leading role of economic system reform, and changes the subject expression from "market players" to "business operators" [33][46]. - Opening - up: It is advanced in the communiqué, with "steady expansion" of institutional opening and "active expansion" of independent opening [33][47]. - Rural Areas: It emphasizes solving the "three rural issues", promotes urban - rural integration, and mentions "agricultural comprehensive production capacity" [34][48]. - Regions: It optimizes productivity layout and adds "marine development, utilization, and protection" [34][50]. - Culture: It aims to develop socialist culture with Marxism guiding ideology [35][50]. - People's Livelihood: It proposes to smooth social mobility channels and includes high - quality real estate development in people's livelihood [35][50]. Sixth Part: Party Building - The 20th Fourth Plenary Session emphasizes promoting self - revolution in the Party, comprehensive and strict governance of the Party, and implementing the spirit of the plenary session [51]. Seventh Part: Economic Situation - The 20th Fourth Plenary Session emphasizes achieving the annual economic and social development goals, with macro - policies continuing to exert force. It is believed that the 5% economic growth target can be achieved [54][55]. Eighth Part: Personnel Changes - The 20th Fourth Plenary Session decided to add Zhang Shengmin as the Vice - Chairman of the Central Military Commission, promote some alternate members to full members, and confirm the expulsion of some members due to disciplinary violations [58]. Ninth Part: Meeting Call - The 20th Fourth Plenary Session called on the whole Party, the whole army, and the people of all ethnic groups to unite around the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core to promote socialist modernization [59].