蒋毅介绍，一方面加快推进价格法的修订，修订草案中进一步明确了低价倾销等不正当价格行为的认定 标准，将重点整治为排挤竞争对手或独占市场、低于成本价倾销的行为，并将服务纳入了低价倾销规制 的范围。 目前修订草案正在向社会征求意见，他补充说，欢迎社会各界提出宝贵意见。 另一方面，国家发展改革委将加强政策的宣贯和提示提醒，选取内卷式竞争问题比较突出的行业和领 域，有针对性开展成本调查，摸清企业生产经营的情况，督促企业自觉规范价格行为。 中经记者 索寒雪 北京报道 8月1日，在国家发展改革委新闻发布会上，国家发改委政策研究室主任蒋毅表示，将选取内卷式竞争问 题比较突出的行业和领域，有针对性开展成本调查，摸清企业生产经营的情况，督促企业自觉规范价格 行为。 他表示，竞争是市场经济的基本特征，良性竞争一定程度上为消费者带来价格优惠和消费福利。然而竞 争也是有规律有底线的，如果过了头、越了界，引发低价无序竞争，出现质量下降、服务缩水、侵权假 冒等现象，就会损害消费者的合法权益，拖累企业自身的发展，让整个行业陷入低效甚至无效的内卷式 竞争。 据了解，中央财经委员会第六次会议对依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争做出了明确部署。国家发展 ...

提振消费大力发展服务消费 今年以来，居民消费需求持续释放，市场供给不断优化，但消费市场回升基础仍需巩固，居民消费信心依然有待增强。专家表 示，本次中央政治局会议强调，要继续深入实施提振消费专项行动，有效释放内需潜力。会议强调，在扩大商品消费的同时，培育服 务消费新的增长点。在保障改善民生中扩大消费需求。 专家称，必须通过体制机制、基础变量的一些调整来产生稳定的消费扩张和消费率的提升。因此，保证居民收入、保证居民资产 负债表、保证社会保障体系和民生建设，是扩消费很重要的抓手。 央视网消息：7月30日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。专家表示，这次会议对于"十 四五"圆满收官，开启"十五五"新局面作出了细致部署，指明了重要方向。 政策"持续发力适时加力"强化民生导向 会议指出做好下半年经济工作，要坚持稳中求进工作总基调，保持政策连续性稳定性，增强灵活性预见性，努力完成全年经济社 会发展目标任务，实现"十四五"圆满收官。特别是，宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力。中国宏观经济研究院院长黄汉权表示，下半年 会发生一些变化，跟上半年有不一样的地方，这种情况下就必须要增加政策灵活性，要使得政策 ...

Core Viewpoint - The State Taxation Administration is actively supporting the construction of a unified national market by implementing measures to address tax-related issues in irregular investment promotion and ensuring fair competition among regions [1][3]. Group 1: Measures Taken - The tax authorities have initiated a special governance program targeting tax issues related to irregular investment promotion, focusing on preventing local governments from engaging in unfair competition through tax incentives [3]. - A monitoring system based on big data has been established to track anomalies in tax declarations, income, and exemptions, leading to the identification and investigation of over 3,000 suspicious cases [3]. - The tax administration has unified enforcement standards across six major regions to eliminate discrepancies in tax policy interpretation and enforcement [3]. Group 2: Legal and Fair Competition - The tax authorities are working to create a fair tax environment for various business entities while improving tax policies and legal frameworks [4]. - Adjustments have been made to the tax payment location for individuals transferring restricted shares of listed companies, moving it from the account opening location to the company's location to prevent tax evasion through account transfers [5]. - The implementation of the "Regulations on Tax Information Reporting by Internet Platform Enterprises" aims to promote fair competition between online and offline markets [5].

Group 1 - The meeting emphasized the importance of stabilizing economic growth and improving expectations in the second half of the year, recognizing both external uncertainties and domestic challenges [2] - It was noted that the basic trend of economic recovery and long-term growth remains unchanged, with positive factors for steady economic growth continuously accumulating [2] - The meeting called for confidence and efforts to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations to ensure the completion of annual goals and the successful conclusion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2] Group 2 - The focus is on boosting consumption to expand domestic demand comprehensively, including optimizing policies for replacing old consumer goods and promoting high-end consumption [3] - There is a push for infrastructure construction in key areas such as transportation, water conservancy, energy, and digital information to support early production and effectiveness of industrial projects [3] - The meeting highlighted the need to stabilize foreign trade and foreign investment, encouraging enterprises to explore diverse markets and enhance the resilience and vitality of the industrial supply chain [3] Group 3 - The meeting included video connections to various cities to hear reports on the province's economic performance in the first half of the year, with contributions from departments such as the Provincial Industry and Information Technology Department and the Provincial Commerce Department [4]

Report Overview - The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logics [2] - The strategy views and investment logics in the report are based on the publicly released research reports of institutions in the current week, and the closing price data is from last Friday, with the weekly change calculated as the change compared to the closing price of the previous Friday [2] Market Data Commodities - Positive weekly changes were seen in螺纹钢 (2.57%), 铁矿石 (2.23%), 生猪 (2.14%), 白银 (1.44%), 黄金 (1.39%), 棕榈油 (1.15%), 原油 (1.00%), 焦炭 (0.81%), 玻璃 (0.69%), 豆粕 (0.27%), 铝 (0.27%), 甲醇 (0.25%), and 乙二醇 (0.14%) - Negative weekly changes were observed in 铜 (-0.24%), PVC (-0.26%), 玉米 (-1.30%), and PTA (-1.42%) [3] A - shares - Positive weekly changes were recorded in 沪深300 (1.54%), 上证50 (1.21%), and 中证500 (0.81%) [3] Overseas Stocks - Positive weekly changes were seen in 标普500 (1.72%), 纳斯达克指数 (1.62%), and 富时100 (0.27%) - Negative weekly changes were observed in 法国CAC40 (-0.85%), 日经225 (-1.52%), and 恒生指数 (-0.28%) [3][4] Bonds - Negative weekly changes were recorded in 中国国债10 - year (-0.06%), 中国国债2 - year (-0.85%), and 中国国债5 - year (-1.52%) [4] Foreign Exchange - Negative weekly changes were observed in 欧元兑美元 (-0.48%), 美元中间价 (-0.91%), and 美元指数 (-1.49%) [4] Commodity Views Macro - financial Sector Stock Index Futures - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend - Bullish logics: 6 - month PMI data improved marginally; last week's net financing purchase funds continued to increase; the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission meeting emphasized "anti - involution" in the construction of a unified market, raising expectations for a new round of supply - side reform; industrial shareholder shareholding reductions increased while company buybacks significantly increased; average daily trading volume was 1.44 trillion yuan, slightly higher than last week - Bearish logics: US employment data was strong, reducing short - term interest rate cut expectations; after the small - and medium - cap stocks rose, the market's willingness to reduce holdings was strong; current indices are approaching last October's highs, and valuations are higher than historical averages; Trump pressured countries on tariffs again, increasing uncertainties [5] Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 3 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend - Bullish logics: Monetary policy is expected to be loose, maintaining a relatively loose liquidity environment; government bond supply pressure is controllable, and the issuance rhythm is stable; in the first and middle of the month, the capital market is seasonally loose, and DR007 remains in a low range; weak fundamental recovery supports the bond market - Bearish logics: June PMI rebounded month - on - month, showing economic resilience; long - term bond prices are high, and more momentum is needed to break through previous highs; fiscal policy efforts may drive a phased improvement in economic data [5] Energy Sector Crude Oil - Strategy views: Among 9 institutions, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend - Bullish logics: The Northern Hemisphere is still in the peak oil consumption season; crude oil inventories continue to decline; Russia is gradually implementing production cuts; there may be a new round of fiscal expansion due to the US tax - cut bill; oil price downside risks have been largely released after a significant previous decline - Bearish logics: OPEC+ maintains its stance of increasing production, and the pace is faster than expected; the Israel - Iran conflict has ended, and geopolitical risks in the Middle East continue to decline; during the autumn maintenance of global refineries, a supply - demand mismatch may lead to a significant increase in crude oil inventories; crude oil supply in North America has increased [6] Agricultural Products Sector Palm Oil - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend - Bullish logics: The US 45Z Act was passed, boosting the demand for biodiesel, soybean oil, and palm oil; India's palm oil imports soared by 61% in June, showing strong demand; institutions expect a decline in Malaysia's palm oil production and an increase in exports in June, with a slight expected decline in inventory; Indonesia raised the reference price of crude palm oil in July, indicating a strong willingness to support prices - Bearish logics: The arrival volume of palm oil in China has increased, the basis has weakened, and import profits are inverted; global tariff disputes have intensified, and macro risks have dampened market sentiment; oil mills have high operating rates, and the accumulation of soybean oil inventory suppresses the overall performance of oils and fats [6] Non - ferrous Metals Sector Aluminum - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend - Bullish logics: The macro - environment has improved, boosting market sentiment and aluminum prices; the recovery of the monthly spread shows strong industrial support under low inventories; the increase in the proportion of aluminum water in the industry delays the accumulation of visible inventories; aluminum ingot inventories remain at a low level, providing support for prices - Bearish logics: The social inventory of aluminum ingots has shown an inflection point of accumulation, weakening the support; the processing fee of downstream aluminum rods has fallen to negative, which may trigger a negative feedback in the industrial chain; high aluminum prices have suppressed downstream purchasing willingness, and the spot price has turned to a discount; the demand for photovoltaic components and exports has shown a downward inflection point; terminal demand has entered the off - season, and orders have significantly declined [7] Chemicals Sector Glass - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend - Bullish logics: The spot market has formed a positive feedback, and price increases in areas such as Shahe have driven the sentiment of taking positions in the spot and futures markets; the expectation of seasonal improvement in demand in the second half of the year has increased, and the marginal improvement in apparent demand is evident; prices are at a low level, and there is a need for valuation repair - Bearish logics: Warehouse receipts in Hubei are suppressing the futures market, and the high - inventory pressure has not been alleviated; the glass produced by previously ignited production lines is gradually coming onto the market, slightly increasing supply pressure; the sustainability of inventory hoarding by the trading end is questionable, and there may be another round of destocking after the mid - stream replenishment; the weak trend in the real estate sector has not changed clearly, and insufficient terminal orders are suppressing demand elasticity [7] Precious Metals Sector Gold - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 4 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 2 expect a sideways trend - Bullish logics: The expansion of the US fiscal deficit and the rising debt risk have increased the demand for gold as a safe - haven asset; global central banks continue to increase their gold holdings, and the willingness to further increase holdings in the future is high; there is a potential downward revision risk in non - farm payroll data and a possible rebound in the unemployment rate, strengthening the expectation of interest rate cuts; high uncertainty in trade policies and the trend of anti - globalization support safe - haven assets - Bearish logics: The tariff negotiation has been postponed to August 1st, leading to a temporary rebound in market risk appetite; the US dollar index may rebound after a continuous decline, suppressing the price of gold; the easing of the Middle East situation has weakened the geopolitical premium, and speculative long - positions have taken profits [8] Black Metals Sector Coking Coal - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend - Bullish logics: Downstream coking and steel enterprises are replenishing inventories periodically, and coking coal trading is good; the "anti - involution" policy has raised expectations for supply - side reform, boosting market sentiment; the customs clearance of Mongolian coal is low, and prices have rebounded; the inventory at ports and mines has decreased well, and spot prices are stable with a slight increase - Bearish logics: Previously shut - down coal mines are gradually resuming production, and the marginal increase in supply is suppressing price increases; after the spot price rebounds, the pressure from hedging positions appears, and the basis repair may limit the upward movement; after the fourth round of price cuts for coke, the futures market has priced in the expected price increase; the rebound is a repair of low valuations, and further upward movement requires improvement in demand [8]

Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the stock index futures is a fluctuating and moderately bullish pattern [1] Core Viewpoints - The market's center of gravity continued to rise last week, with a late - stage rally followed by a decline. The core driver of last week's market was the China Central Finance and Economics Commission meeting on the 1st, which emphasized "anti - involution" through the construction of a unified market, leading to a sharp increase in market expectations for a new round of supply - side reform. The value style outperformed last week, with IH and IF stronger than IC and IM, mainly due to the rise of cyclical products. Overseas, the US "Great Beauty Act" was passed, non - farm payroll data was better than expected, and tariff negotiations were underway, causing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to reach new highs [1] - Currently, the external geopolitical situation is calm, global risk assets are performing strongly, and the domestic economic outlook has shifted from pessimistic to stable, with structural reforms starting to take effect. The risk appetite in the stock market continues to recover, which is an important basis for the current long - position pattern of stock index futures. However, there is a lack of momentum for marginally positive surprises. As long as there are no unexpected changes in external forces and no intensification of domestic structural adjustments, the current pattern of fluctuating upward is expected to continue [2] Summary by Directory Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: Last week, the market's center of gravity rose, with a late - stage rally followed by a decline. In terms of sectors, steel, building materials, and banks led the gains, while computer, non - bank finance, and beauty care led the losses. The value style outperformed, with IH and IF stronger than IC and IM, mainly due to the rise of cyclical products. Overseas, the US "Great Beauty Act" was passed, non - farm payroll data was better than expected, and tariff negotiations were underway, causing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to reach new highs [1] - **Future Outlook**: The current external geopolitical situation is calm, global risk assets are performing strongly, and the domestic economic outlook has shifted from pessimistic to stable, with structural reforms starting to take effect. The risk appetite in the stock market continues to recover, which is an important basis for the current long - position pattern of stock index futures. However, there is a lack of momentum for marginally positive surprises. As long as there are no unexpected changes in external forces and no intensification of domestic structural adjustments, the current pattern of fluctuating upward is expected to continue. This week, attention should be paid to the release of June economic data in China [2] - **Factors to Watch**: Domestic economy and overseas tariff negotiation progress [3] Strategy Recommendations - **Short - term Strategy**: For intraday trading, refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. Set stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM at 76 points/95 points, 58 points/31 points, 66 points/121 points, and 84 points/142 points respectively [4] - **Trend Strategy**: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips. The core operating range for the IF2507 main contract is between 3826 and 4024 points; for the IH2507 main contract, between 2649 and 2772 points; for the IC2507 main contract, between 5646 and 6025 points; and for the IM2507 main contract, between 5970 and 6372 points [4] - **Cross - variety Strategy**: Due to the frequent switching between value and growth styles recently, it is advisable to wait and see [5] Spot Market Review - **Global Stock Index Performance**: Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.3%, the S&P 500 rose 1.72%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.62%. In Europe, the UK's FTSE 100 rose 0.27%, Germany's DAX fell 1.02%, and France's CAC 40 rose 0.06%. In the Asia - Pacific market, Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 0.85%, and the Hang Seng Index fell 1.52% [8] - **Domestic Index Performance**: Since 2025, major domestic indices have risen. Last week, all major domestic indices also showed an upward trend [8] Index Valuation Tracking - As of June 27, the TTM price - to - earnings ratio of the Shanghai Composite Index was 14.93 times, the TTM price - to - earnings ratio of the CSI 300 Index was 13.02 times, the TTM price - to - earnings ratio of the SSE 50 Index was 11.18 times, the TTM price - to - earnings ratio of the CSI 500 Index was 27.66 times, and the TTM price - to - earnings ratio of the CSI 1000 Index was 36.02 times [19][20] Market Capital Flow Review - **Investor and Fund Data**: The number of new investors in the two markets and the share of newly established equity - biased funds are presented in relevant charts. Last week, the capital interest rate declined, and the central bank had a net withdrawal of funds [22]

Group 1 - The central theme of the meeting is the importance of "unifying government behavior standards" to facilitate the construction of a unified national market, addressing issues such as local government overreach and market interference [1][3] - The meeting emphasizes the need to focus on key challenges, including the regulation of low-price disorderly competition and the orderly exit of outdated production capacity, which are often linked to inappropriate actions by local governments [1][2] - The meeting outlines that the "unified government behavior standards" should ensure consistent market access and fair competition across different regions, preventing local protectionism and arbitrary barriers [3][4] Group 2 - The meeting highlights the negative impact of local government subsidies and policies on industries like solar energy, leading to overcapacity and market inefficiencies [2] - It is noted that local governments often create unfair competitive conditions through preferential policies that harm the principle of fair competition in a unified market [2][3] - The concept of "unified standards" is proposed to include both spatial and temporal dimensions, ensuring that all government actions adhere to the same guidelines and maintain policy continuity [3][4]

Group 1 - The recent issuance of the "Opinions on Improving the Social Credit System" by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council signifies a systematic deployment for enhancing the social credit system [1] - Significant progress has been made in the construction of the social credit system in China, which has played a crucial role in optimizing the business environment, promoting financial services for the real economy, and improving government governance and service efficiency [1] - The establishment of a national credit information sharing platform has greatly improved the level of credit information sharing, and the legal and standardized foundation of the social credit system has been continuously strengthened [1] Group 2 - The construction of government integrity is highlighted as a key aspect of the social credit system, emphasizing that the integrity of various administrative entities serves as a crucial model and guiding force for overall social credit construction [2] - Policies aimed at enhancing credit management for business entities are proposed, including providing conveniences or benefits for trustworthy entities in public services and supporting financial institutions in leveraging credit information [2] - The implementation of a credit commitment system in administrative approvals and credit restoration is expected to alleviate the financing difficulties faced by private and small to medium-sized enterprises, thereby stimulating market vitality [2] Group 3 - The recent introduction of a series of reform and opening-up policies, including the release of the "Negative List for Market Access (2025 Edition)," aims to reduce the number of restricted items to 106, thereby easing entry restrictions in various industries [3] - The promotion of the private economy law emphasizes the legal protection of the personal rights, property rights, and operational autonomy of private economic organizations and their operators [3] - The acceleration of the establishment of foundational market economy systems, including property rights protection, market access, fair competition, and social credit, is expected to enhance China's market strength and resilience in facing changes [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of fair competition as a fundamental principle of market economy and the need for effective measures to promote a unified national market [1] - The province is addressing issues such as market segmentation and local protectionism, focusing on eliminating barriers that hinder the construction of a unified market [1][2] - A special action named "Clean Source" has been launched to rectify regulations that obstruct fair market access and enterprise mobility, resulting in the review of 2,181 policy measures [1][2] Group 2 - Strengthening antitrust and unfair competition enforcement is crucial for ensuring fair market participation by small and medium-sized enterprises [2] - The province is actively regulating market order and has initiated actions against monopolistic behaviors, particularly in the livelihood sector [2] - A system for fair competition review has been established, coordinating with 35 provincial departments to enhance the review mechanism and ensure compliance [2] Group 3 - The province is integrating market supervision with credit rehabilitation, allowing for online processing of credit repair, benefiting over 15,000 businesses this year [3] - The introduction of a streamlined enterprise migration registration system has improved the convenience of cross-regional operations [3] - The province is promoting a "one-stop" approach for business registration and cancellation, which has been recognized and adopted nationwide [3] Group 4 - Credit risk classification is being implemented more broadly, with a focus on individual businesses and enhancing the effectiveness of joint regulatory efforts [4] - The proportion of joint inspections in regulatory tasks has increased to 51%, indicating a more collaborative approach to market supervision [4] Group 5 - The province is standardizing enterprise-related fees and monitoring compliance with fee regulations to prevent violations [5] - Future efforts will focus on removing barriers to enhance the modernization of market regulation and deepen comprehensive reforms [5]

健全市场基础制度 激发经营主体活力 —— 畅通经济循环 推进统一大市场建设(一） 杨成长系全国政协委员、申万宏源证券研究所首席经济学家；龚芳系申万宏源证券研究所政策研究 室主任、首席研究员；方思元系申万宏源证券研究所高级研究员；袁宇泽系申万宏源证券研究所资 深高级研究员 生产、分配、支出是国民经济循环的重要节点，是构成国内大循环的主要内容。 近年来，我国在畅通国内大循环、推进统一大市场建设上取得了一系列突出成绩，但 总的来看，国民经济循环仍面临三大堵点：一是收入向消费转化不畅；二是储蓄向投 资转化不畅；三是部分领域供需结构失衡。 收入向消费的转化，不仅是国民经济循 环中生产、分配与消费之间的重要传导机制，更是扩大内需的关键所在。当前我国居 民消费率和边际消费倾向都还存在较大提升空间，要通过优化收入结构、增强保障预 期等方式加快释放消费市场潜力。 打通储蓄向投资转化的堵点 打通储蓄向投资转化堵点：一要着力提升实体投资收益率，吸引企业 加大生产再投资；二要加快消除企业多元投资主体之间的投资逻辑分 歧，推动社会储蓄向投资转化；三要着力提升资本市场中长期回报水 平，发挥资本市场在推动储蓄向投资转化中的重要作用。当前要 ...