道明仍预计美联储总共将降息六次，每次幅度25个基点，最终利率为3%。具体为今年降息三次，明年 每季度一次，直至9月末；此前该行的预期是今年降息两次、明年降息四次。道明证券的策略师 OscarMunoz和GennadiyGoldberg在报告中表示："鉴于劳动力市场状况减弱的迹象，我们认为今日的通 胀数据可能会促使几位在下一步政策路径上仍持观望态度的美联储官员改变看法"。他们预计，美联储 主席鲍威尔将在下周的杰克逊霍尔讲话中"传达出美联储倾向于9月开始货币宽松的立场"。道明策略团 队还将他们对2025年末5年期美债收益率的预测从3.70%下调至3.65%。 周一（8月18日）亚盘早盘，美元指数最新价报97.87，涨幅0.02%，开盘价为97.80。根据上周公布的美 国7月CPI报告，道明证券策略师预测，美联储将更早开始降息，时间由10月提前至9月。 从美元指数(DXY)的图表来看，当前价格依旧处于下降通道内。布林带显示价格前期已经触及上轨 98.66附近并遭遇强烈回调，当前价格再次回落至98.00下方。随着价格逐步接近下轨97.60区域，市场对 该位置的支撑力度充满疑问。 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 贵金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 · 2025 年 8 月 18 日 贵金属周报 专业研究·创造价值 美俄关系向好，金价承压 核心观点 上周金价承压运行，纽约金跌破 3400 美元关口。当地时间 8 月 15 日，美国总统和俄罗斯总统于阿拉斯加会晤，随后的联合新闻发布 会上，双方对会晤的评价积极，但未达成任何协议。乌克兰总统泽连 斯基 16 日确认，他将于 18 日与特朗普会晤。17 日，欧盟、北约以及 多个欧洲国家的领导人先后确认也将于 18 日前往白宫，同特朗普及 泽连斯基举行会晤。周末美俄关系及俄乌局势趋于缓和，利空金价。 技术上，纽约金处于二季度 ...

Financial Market Performance - The European industrial production showed weakness in Q2, while the US dollar index remained weak, leading to a decline in investor confidence in August. The investor confidence index in Europe fell again, with institutional investors showing stronger confidence than individual investors [1] - Following the appreciation of the euro against the dollar in May-June 2025, the dollar index rebounded in July, but uncertainty in US economic data increased in August, leading to a rise in the euro to 1.17 against the dollar by August 15 [1] - Expectations of increased defense spending in Germany and other countries are anticipated to boost the Eurozone economy, alongside improved expectations regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1] Bond Market Analysis - The European bond market continues to exhibit a bear flattening trend, with 10-year government bond yields in the UK, Germany, and France remaining relatively high. In August, the yield spread on government bonds widened slightly [2] - Concerns over potential inflation fluctuations and uncertainties regarding US tariff agreements are driving the widening of bond spreads, while the European Central Bank maintains a cautious stance on interest rate cuts for the remainder of 2025 [2] Stock Market Performance - Since April, the UK stock market has shown stable growth, with the German stock market performing well since the beginning of the year. European bank stocks have recently led the market [3] - The Eurozone STOXX50 index has seen a cumulative increase of 24.6% over the past quarter, driven by the return of overseas funds to the European market and the resilience of the European economy [3][4] - The UK FTSE 100 index reached a record high on August 15, supported by economic resilience and service sector growth [4] Sector Performance - In the past two weeks, large-cap value stocks in banking and energy sectors have performed well, while sectors like biotechnology, transportation, food, and airlines have also shown strong performance. The AI technology sector, however, faced pressure [5] - Current valuations for major indices in the UK, France, and Germany are around 17-20 times PE, close to historical averages. In comparison, the S&P 500 index stands at 29 times, significantly higher than European indices [5] - The European stock market is expected to have allocation value and potential for growth in 2025, supported by active fiscal policies and a relatively loose monetary policy environment [5]

来源：证券时报 中国增持美国国债。 当地时间8月15日，美国财政部官网发布的6月国际资本流动报告（Treasury International Capital Data for June）（下称"TIC报告"）显示，截至今年6月，外国投资者持有美国国债总额达到9.1277万亿美元，较上月 增加802亿美元。其中，中国持有美国国债规模7564亿美元，较上月增持1亿美元，为今年3月以来首次增持 美国国债。 TIC报告长期以来是全球投资者和政策制定者跟踪海外投资者持有美债变化的重要参考。最新数据显示，今年 6月，外国投资者在美净增持证券资产（包括美国长期、短期证券和银行现金流）778亿美元，其中，私人外 资净增持73亿美元，官方外资由上月的净减持转为净增持705亿美元。 在外资持有美国长期证券方面，6月外国投资者净增持美国长期证券1923亿美元，主要是私人外资增持力度 大，当月净增持1546亿美元，官方外资净增持377亿美元。若考虑到海外投资组合通过股票互换购入的美股并 进行调整，6月外国投资者净增持美国长期证券1508亿美元，上月为净减持2594亿美元。 中金公司研报指出，一旦美股上涨动能弱化，风险偏好可能趋弱， ...

每日经济新闻 每经AI快讯，8月15日纽约尾盘，美元指数跌0.36%报97.8509，非美货币多数上涨，欧元兑美元涨0.48% 报1.1704，英镑兑美元涨0.19%报1.3556，澳元兑美元涨0.18%报0.6508，美元兑日元跌0.39%报 147.1630，美元兑加元持平报1.3819，美元兑瑞郎跌0.09%报0.8068。 ...

. 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/08/15 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 美国抵押贷款利率创四个月最大降幅（单周降10基点至6.67%），叠加美财长表态暗示9月或降息50基点，美元指数走弱支撑贵金属。现货贴水4.1元/克反映实物需求平 稳，地缘政策扰动（如美俄资源合作动向）加剧避险情绪，基本面利多因素主导短期走势。 SHFE金银期货主连价格. source： Wind 元/克 SHFE黄金 SHFE白银(右轴) 元/千克 24/04 24/08 24/12 25/04 500 600 700 800 900 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 COMEX黄金与金银比. source： wind 美元/盎司 COMEX黄金价格 COMEX金银比价(右轴) 24/04 24/08 24/12 25/04 2000 2500 3000 3500 70 80 90 100 110 120 source： wind 元/克 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 03/01 05/01 07/01 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views - The coke market is expected to continue its volatile and upward trend in the short term due to tight supply and strong demand [1]. - Gold is expected to have a short - term rebound but remain volatile and bearish in the medium term due to the strength of the US dollar [1]. - Iron ore prices are expected to remain range - bound in the short term, with support from iron water demand and seasonal shipping lulls [3]. - Rebar prices may be volatile and weak in the short term due to weak demand and increased inventory [4]. - Treasury bonds are expected to have a short - term rebound but remain volatile and bearish in the medium term, with the stock - bond seesaw as the main logic [4]. - Silver is expected to have a short - term correction but remain volatile and bullish [5]. - The pig market has a short - term rebound expectation, but the supply exceeds demand. It is recommended to wait for the end of the correction [5]. - Palm oil prices are expected to be in a high - level volatile state in the short term, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions [6][7]. - Methanol is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [7]. - Soda ash is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [8]. - LLDPE is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. - Crude oil is expected to be volatile and weak, with market focus on the US - Russia negotiation [10]. - PTA follows the trend of crude oil, and there is pressure on the supply side [11]. - Rubber is expected to be volatile and bullish, with short - term supply support and improved demand expectations [11]. Summary by Variety Coke - On August 14, mainstream steel mills raised coke purchase prices. Coke prices have risen for six consecutive rounds. Some coking coal varieties have weakened, and coking enterprises' operating pressure has eased. Supply may tighten slightly, and demand remains strong. Coke supply is tight, and the market is expected to be volatile and upward in the short term [1]. Gold - US initial jobless claims decreased, and PPI increased significantly, strengthening the US dollar and pressuring precious metals. Gold is expected to have a short - term rebound but remain volatile and bearish in the medium term [1]. Iron Ore - From August 4 - 10, global iron ore shipments decreased. Iron water production decreased slightly, but demand remained resilient, and port inventory increased. Ore prices are expected to be range - bound in the short term, and it is recommended to operate within the range of the Iron Ore 2601 contract with a support level of 750 yuan/ton [3]. Rebar - As of August 14, rebar production decreased slightly, while factory and social inventories increased, and apparent demand decreased significantly. With weak demand and increased inventory, rebar prices may be volatile and weak in the short term [4]. Treasury Bonds - The central bank has increased liquidity injection, which supports the bond market. The bond market is currently affected by liquidity and the stock - bond seesaw, with a short - term rebound and medium - term bearish trend [4]. Silver - US PPI in July increased significantly, suppressing interest - rate cut expectations. The US dollar index rebounded, pressuring precious metals. Silver may correct further in the short term but remains volatile and bullish [5]. Pig - On August 14, the national average pork price decreased slightly. Pig prices in different regions showed a mixed trend. There is a short - term rebound expectation, but supply exceeds demand. It is recommended to wait for the end of the correction, with a support level of 13700 for the LH2511 contract [5]. Palm Oil - India's palm oil imports in July decreased. Affected by news and profit - taking of long - position funds, palm oil prices are expected to be high - level volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions [6][7]. Methanol - Methanol port inventory increased, and the capacity utilization rate rose. The downstream demand was stable. Methanol is expected to be volatile in the short term, with a pressure level of 2465 for the 01 contract, and it is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [7]. Soda Ash - The price of heavy - duty soda ash was volatile and weak. Production increased, and inventory rose. The float glass industry was stable, but inventory increased. Soda ash is expected to be volatile in the short term, with a pressure level of 1425 for the 01 contract, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [8]. LLDPE - The price of LLDPE increased slightly, production decreased, and enterprise inventory decreased. The downstream demand was general. LLDPE is expected to be volatile in the short term, with a pressure level of 7365 for the L2601 contract, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. Crude Oil - US refined oil demand increased year - on - year. OPEC + has increased production, and the IEA has adjusted supply and demand forecasts. The US - Russia meeting has uncertainty. Crude oil is expected to be volatile and weak, with market focus on the negotiation [10]. PTA - PTA supply pressure exists, and the downstream is the traditional peak season. However, polyester profit is poor, which may affect production enthusiasm. PTA follows the trend of crude oil [11]. Rubber - The price of rubber raw materials was stable. Tire capacity utilization showed differentiation. The supply side has short - term support, and demand expectations have improved. Rubber is expected to be volatile and bullish [11].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 8 月 15 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2510 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 短线看弱 | 中美贸易关系缓和，金价承压 | | 铜 | 2509 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 短线看强 | 国内氛围回暖，铜价企稳回升 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：短线看弱 核心逻辑：昨日金价持续承压，纽约金跌破 3400 美元关口，沪金跌至 775 元下方。美国 7 月 PPI 年 率录得 ...

新华财经纽约8月14日电（记者徐静）纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年12月黄金期价 14日下跌26.0美元，收于每盎司3382.3美元，跌幅为0.76%。 受美国通胀报告意外高于预期影响，金价当日走低。 本周就业报告也打压金价。美国劳工部14日发布的数据显示，截至8月9日当周，美国首次申领失业救济 人数减少3000人至22.4万人，低于市场预期的22.8万，显示劳动力市场韧性犹存。 数据公布后，美元指数短线跳涨约25点，突破98关口；黄金价格大幅下跌，触及盘中低点。 技术层面，12月黄金期货多头近期拥有稳固的整体技术优势。 当天9月交割的白银期货价格下跌56.7美分，收于每盎司38.035美元，跌幅为1.47%。 （文章来源：新华财经） 美国劳工部14日发布数据显示，美国7月份生产者价格指数（PPI）环比上涨0.9%，大幅高于6月份的零 增长和市场预期的0.2%，为2022年6月以来最大涨幅；同比上涨3.3%，大幅高于6月份的2.3%和市场预 期的2.6%，为今年2月以来最高水平。 数据公布后，美国股市走弱，美元和美国长期国债收益率走高。报告略微降低了市场对美联储9月份降 息25个基点的预期， ...

格隆汇8月14日｜美元指数DXY突破98，短线拉升超20点，日内涨0.31%。 ...