Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index decreased by 0.28% to 98.19, while most non-US currencies appreciated against the dollar [1]. Currency Movements - The euro rose by 0.29% against the dollar, reaching 1.1700 [1]. - The British pound increased by 0.44% to 1.3400 against the dollar [1]. - The Australian dollar appreciated by 0.11% to 0.6547 against the dollar [1]. - The Japanese yen saw a decline, with the dollar falling by 0.20% to 149.5015 [1]. - The Canadian dollar experienced a slight increase, with the dollar rising by 0.02% to 1.3944 [1]. - The Swiss franc depreciated, with the dollar decreasing by 0.17% to 0.7982 [1].

美元四季度观点 东证衍生品研究院 元涛 从业资格号：F0286099 投资咨询号：Z0012850 美国经济-劳动力市场韧性降低 劳动力市场冷却速度上升 职位空缺降低 失业率上升但是通胀未必下行 资料来源：Bloomberg 美国劳动力市场韧性在明显降低，失业率开始趋势性上升，职位空缺趋向于中性水平。劳动力市场 很明显比预期要弱。 美国经济-劳动力市场中期弱势难免 资料来源：Bloomberg 经济基本面数据已经走弱，劳动力市场表现在目前很明显开始跟随经济基本面走弱，远期预期明显 下行，但是薪资增速继续维持相对韧性。 劳动力市场走弱速度可能加快 薪资增速继续制约核心通胀下行速度 经济远期预期波动加剧 美国经济-滞胀前景愈发明显 美国通胀短期压力继续存在 核心服务业通胀回升 资料来源：Bloomberg 短期通胀压力持续存在，核心通胀尤其是服务业通胀没有明显下行倾向，短期通胀压力很明显在上 升。 美国经济-滞胀前景愈发明显 通胀预期高位震荡 能源价格对于降息影响并不高 资料来源：Bloomberg 但是真正的关键在于远期通胀预期明显上升，并且达到一个非常高的水平，能源价格的上升对于通 胀预期的影响并不是非常显著 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔一直抱有这种观点：关税政策将会持续推高消费者物价。这也是为什么9月份之前鲍威尔一直坚持不降息的核心原因。虽然美联储迫于 就业市场的压力，在9月份宣布降息，但美联储主席鲍威尔依旧对通胀走向十分担忧。他在最近一次公开讲话中提到：（如果过于激进的降息）我们可能 无法完成控制通胀的任务，之后需要改变策略（转而加息）。显然，鲍威尔仍然认为通胀率可能超预期升高。 如果8月份PCE数据确实如市场预期的那样保持不变，意味着美国的通胀率没有像鲍威尔预判的那样强势，美联储降息的节奏大概率延续，利空美元指 数。 ATFX汇评：今日20:30，美国商务部将公布美国8月核心PCE物价指数年率数据，前值为2.9%，预期值持平。核心PCE物价指数年率是美联储进行货币政 策决定的关键依据，如果数据显著上行，可能导致美联储重新考虑降息幅度与频率。 ▲ATFX图 PCE数据与CPI数据共振。从上图可以看出，核心CPI和核心PCE年率均在2022年2月份创出阶段性高点，又同时在2025年3月份触底。又因为CPI数据的公 布时间远早于PCE数据，所以前者可以作为后者的前瞻指标。8月份核心CPI年率最新值为3.1%，与前值持平。据此判 ...

周五（9月26日）亚欧交易时段，国际现货黄金市场表现平淡，价格围绕3742美元/盎司关口展开震荡， 未能延续前一交易日的温和上涨态势。市场分析显示，最新公布的美国宏观经济数据表现强劲，加剧了 投资者对美联储未来利率政策路径的分歧，推动美元指数稳居于三周高位附近，从而对不产生利息的黄 金资产形成一定压力。 多空因素交织，金价陷入胶着 尽管面临美元走强的外部压力，但金价的下行空间似乎受到多重因素的制约。市场参与者在美国关键通 胀数据——个人消费支出物价指数（PCE）公布前，普遍持谨慎态度，不愿进行大规模的方向性押注。 同时，市场对美联储在未来数月内可能继续实施降息的预期，也一定程度上抑制了美元多头的热情，为 金价提供了支撑。 从技术分析角度来看，金价目前正处于重要关口。下行方面，3720-3715美元区间构成近期的关键支撑 区域，若有效跌破该水平，可能引发技术性卖盘，推动金价进一步下探3650美元乃至3610-3600美元区 域。 上行方面，金价在3753-3754美元附近面临一道短期趋势线阻力，突破该阻力位后，有望重新挑战本周 初创下的历史高点3790美元附近。若能有效站稳3800美元整数关口上方，将强化市场对 ...

影响上，美国周初请失业金人数以外下降和美国第二季度GDP被大幅上修等，推动美元指数继续强势反 弹收涨，创近两周新高，一度打压金价走低，但受到逢低买盘和避险买盘支撑而反弹回升，最终震荡收 线。 展望今日周五(9月26日)：国际黄金开盘早盘有所走弱，但日内短周期来看，走盘依然还是偏向震荡波 动为主，多头暂时一方面受到阻力位的压制，另一方面，受到美元指数近日强势反弹，多头前景转强， 对金价产生利空预期。所以金价在突破阻力3780美元上方收线前，或者是回踩10日及30日均线支撑之 前，暂先保持震荡走盘行情对待。 日内将可关注美国8月核心PCE物价指数年率及月率、美国9月密歇根大学消费者信心指数终值等数据， 市场预期保持不变，但根据昨日公布的数据向好和之前公布的几次趋势来看，大概率将数据好于前值， 而会打压金价走低。反之则会提振金价走强。 上交易日周四(9月25日)：国际黄金震荡收涨，维持在5日均线上方，虽然附图指标多头信号减弱，但主 图走势仍倾向上行，故此，回撤调整触及各均线支撑位置，也都是看涨入场机会。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于3735.78美元/盎司，整体维持震荡走盘，于欧盘初录得日内高点3761.31美 元， ...

美元指数短期均线呈现上行趋势，但动能有所减弱，显示多头力量趋缓。若指数继续上行，上方关键阻 力位在98.60与99.00附近；而若回落，下方支撑关注97.80与97.40一线。 穆萨勒姆表示，他上周支持降息25个基点，因为他认为劳动力市场面临的风险有所增加。但是，由于通 胀率比美联储2%的目标高出近一个百分点，进一步降息可能意味着对物价上涨的过度自满。"如果公众 开始怀疑通胀能否回归2%的目标，那么恢复价格稳定的工作将变得更加困难，并可能给经济带来更高 代价。"交易员的押注显示，美联储将在今年剩余的两次会议上再降息50个基点。此外，他的观点也与 美联储新任理事米兰相左。米兰在上周的会议上反对小幅降息，主张进行更大幅度的降息。 周五（9月26日）亚盘早盘，美元指数最新价报98.39，跌幅0.07%，开盘价为98.46。 美联储官员穆萨莱 姆对进一步降息表示怀疑，与金融市场普遍预期美联储今年将继续降低借贷成本的观点相左。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 25, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.45% to 854.72 yuan/gram, while the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 0.08% to 10,411 yuan/kilogram [4]. - The US economic data is performing well, the US dollar index has rebounded, the trade situation between the US and Europe has further eased, and the market has closed positions in advance before the National Day holiday to avoid risks. As a result, the upward trend of gold has slowed down and entered a high - level shock. However, silver, boosted by its industrial attributes and the sharp rise of copper, has continued its upward trend. On the other hand, US Treasury Secretary Bessent urged a rate cut by the end of the year, and the probability of two more rate cuts this year remains high. In the long run, precious metal prices still have room to rise [4]. - In the medium - to - long term, the Fed still has room to cut interest rates this year, global geopolitical uncertainties persist, the US debt is unsustainable, and great - power competition intensifies, which will long - term increase the credit risk of the US dollar. The continuation of gold purchases by global central banks means that the medium - to - long - term center of gravity of gold is likely to continue to move up [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking of Internal and External Gold and Silver - **Price Data**: On September 25, 2025, the price of London gold was 3,740.94 US dollars/ounce, London silver was 43.96 US dollars/ounce, COMEX gold was 3,771.60 US dollars/ounce, COMEX silver was 44.26 US dollars/ounce, AU2510 was 851.74 yuan/gram, AG2510 was 10,370 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) was 850.58 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) was 10,346 yuan/kilogram. Compared with September 24, the price of gold generally decreased, with a decline of 0.8% for London gold, 0.9% for COMEX gold, 0.5% for AU2510, and 0.5% for AU (T + D). The price of silver also mostly decreased, with a decline of 0.3% for London silver and 0.2% for COMEX silver, but AG2510 and AG (T + D) increased by 0.2% [3]. - **Spread/Ratio Data**: On September 25, 2025, the spread of gold TD - SHFE active price was - 1.16 yuan/gram, the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price was - 24 yuan/kilogram, the spread of gold internal - external market (TD - London) was - 4.78 yuan/gram, the spread of silver internal - external market (TD - London) was - 896 yuan/kilogram, the ratio of SHFE gold - silver main contracts was 82.14, the ratio of COMEX gold - silver main contracts was 85.22, the spread of AU2512 - 2510 was 2.98 yuan/gram, and the spread of AG2512 - 2510 was 41 yuan/kilogram. Compared with September 24, the spread of gold TD - SHFE active price increased by 28.9%, the spread of gold internal - external market (TD - London) decreased by 31.0%, etc. [3] 3.2 Position Data - **COMEX Gold and Silver Non - commercial Positions**: As of September 16, 2025 (weekly data), on September 24, the non - commercial long position of COMEX gold was 326,778 contracts, the non - commercial short position was 60,368 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position was 266,410 contracts. Compared with September 23, the non - commercial long position increased by 0.59%, the non - commercial short position decreased by 4.38%, and the non - commercial net long position increased by 1.78%. The non - commercial long position of COMEX silver was 71,623 contracts, the non - commercial short position was 20,085 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position was 51,538 contracts. Compared with September 23, the non - commercial long position decreased by 1.14%, the non - commercial short position increased by 8.49%, and the non - commercial net long position decreased by 4.45% [3]. - **ETF Positions**: On September 24, the position of the gold ETF - SPDR was 996.85 tons, and the position of the silver ETF - SLV was 15,469.12379 tons. Compared with September 23, the position of the gold ETF - SPDR decreased by 0.37%, and the position of the silver ETF - SLV remained unchanged [3]. 3.3 Inventory Data - **SHFE Inventory**: On September 25, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory was 65,634 kilograms, an increase of 8.41% compared with September 24. The SHFE silver inventory was 1,156,855 kilograms, a decrease of 0.43% compared with September 24 [3]. - **COMEX Inventory**: On September 24, 2025, the COMEX gold inventory was 39,807,223 troy ounces, an increase of 0.16% compared with September 23. The COMEX silver inventory was 527,155,089 troy ounces, an increase of 0.08% compared with September 23 [3]. 3.4 Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Index Data - **Interest Rate and Exchange Rate**: On September 25, 2025, the US dollar index was 97.87, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.57%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.16%, and the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.11. Compared with September 24, the US dollar index increased by 0.06%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield increased by 0.65%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 1.13%, and the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate remained unchanged [3][4]. - **Index**: On September 25, 2025, the S&P 500 index was 6,637.97, and the NYMEX crude oil price was 64.81. Compared with September 24, the S&P 500 index decreased by 2.76%, and the NYMEX crude oil price increased by 1.82% [4].

与此同时，美元指数震荡，截至9时30分，报98.4213。 华泰期货研报称，人民币对美元短期维持在7.1左右区间震荡。若国内信贷和消费修复兑现，叠加美联 储进入宽松周期，人民币存在阶段性升值可能。 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 陈佳怡）9月26日，Wind数据显示，在岸人民币对美元开盘下跌，报 7.1350，前一交易日16时30分收盘报7.1253。截至9时30分，离岸人民币对美元报7.1424。 同日，人民币对美元中间价下调34个基点，报7.1152。 ...

Group 1 - The US dollar index increased by 0.60% to 98.47, while most non-US currencies declined [1] - The euro fell by 0.62% against the dollar, trading at 1.1666 [1] - The British pound decreased by 0.79% against the dollar, reaching 1.3342 [1] - The Australian dollar dropped by 0.65% against the dollar, now at 0.6540 [1] - The US dollar rose by 0.60% against the Japanese yen, trading at 149.7970 [1] - The US dollar appreciated by 0.32% against the Canadian dollar, now at 1.3941 [1] - The US dollar increased by 0.57% against the Swiss franc, trading at 0.7996 [1]

Group 1 - Domestic gold prices have stabilized, with some signs of a potential decline, as major brands report no price changes [1][3] - The highest gold price is quoted at 1105 CNY per gram by Laomiao Gold, while Shanghai China Gold offers the lowest at 1011 CNY per gram, resulting in a price difference of 94 CNY [1][3] - The gold recovery prices have decreased by 2.1 CNY per gram, with significant price variations among different brands [4] Group 2 - International spot gold prices experienced a drop, reaching a low of 3717.10 USD per ounce, and closing at 3736.07 USD per ounce, reflecting a daily decline of 0.74% [6] - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to cautious remarks from the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, which have limited market expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to a rebound in the dollar index [6] - Market sentiment remains cautious as investors await upcoming economic data, including the US Q2 GDP and PCE data, which could influence gold prices [6]