但问题来了：美国官员为何选择秘密访华，而不是公开亮相呢？这一问题背后有着复杂的原因。一个关键点在于，特朗普提名沃什担任新一任美联储主席 后，全球金融市场进入了异常敏感的状态。有人认为，沃什的上任能够修复美国的财政纪律，振兴美元的信用，但也有不少人认为，降息加缩表的政策几乎 无法实现，美元的贬值已经势不可挡。这一切反映在市场上，黄金和白银在经历了剧烈的波动之后，又开始缓慢回升，美元指数逐渐下滑，美元兑离岸人民 币接近6.90的整数大关，跌破已经成了时间问题。这一切都表明，国际资本对于美元的信任仍显得脆弱。如果美国财政官员高调访问中国，势必会被外界解 读为美国再次向中国寻求托底美债的帮助。与此同时，上周六媒体报道了中国央行连续15个月增持黄金的消息，且提到中国监管机构正在建议国内银行减少 对美债的敞口。虽然这一点没有得到公开证实，但它已经引发了市场的不安，美元指数随之跳水，国际金价也强势反弹。 由此可见，贝森特选择隐瞒美国官员的访华行程，显然是为了减少对美债市场的干扰，提前掌握主动权。如果中方同意美方的要求，那么一切都好说；如果 中方拒绝了美方的请求，那么美国方面也可以提前准备一些利好消息，以安抚市场的情绪。事实 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent depreciation of the US dollar against various currencies, particularly the Japanese yen, driven by market concerns over the US economic outlook and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][4][5]. Group 1: Currency Movements - On February 11, the US dollar depreciated significantly against the Japanese yen, reaching a low of 152.5 to 152.9 yen per dollar, marking the largest depreciation in two weeks [2]. - The dollar also fell to a two-week low against the euro and Swiss franc, with the dollar index dropping to the 96 range, indicating a broader decline in the dollar's value [4]. - Following the release of better-than-expected US employment statistics on February 11, the dollar briefly rebounded to 154.5 to 154.9 yen per dollar, although trading volumes were low due to a holiday in Japan [4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - The US Commerce Department reported that retail sales for December 2025 were flat, below the expected growth of 0.4%, contributing to concerns about a slowing US economy and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5]. - Market sentiment remains cautious, with expectations that the Federal Reserve may initiate rate cuts around June, and some analysts suggesting a possibility of cuts as early as spring [7]. - The market's confidence in US dollar assets is waning, partly due to reports that the Chinese government has advised its banks to limit their holdings of US Treasury bonds, indicating a global trend of reducing reliance on dollar assets [7]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical risks stemming from actions and statements by US President Trump are also contributing to the dollar's weakness, with analysts noting a reflexive market response to his behavior [8]. - There is a prevailing belief that the yen may continue to depreciate under the new Japanese government led by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, with expectations of ongoing fluctuations in the exchange rate between 159 yen and 152 yen per dollar [8]. - Prime Minister Kishida is expected to visit the US on March 19 for discussions with Trump, which may influence future currency movements and trade negotiations [8].

期货公司观点 广发期货： 当前数据显示美国就业和通胀持续放缓但部分领域在美联储降息提振下有所改善，尽管美联储未来在衡 量就业的通胀目标问题上仍有分歧短期趋于谨慎，但贸易摩擦和地缘风险的担忧驱动资金提前配置使金 价中长期上涨空间，在全球主流机构持续上调贵金属价格预测的情况下，部分机构投资者选择提前"抢 跑"配置贵金属，对价格形成支撑。市场或将更多受到美国经济数据对美联储政策预期影响和地缘局势 扰动，综合来看短期消息面影响减弱行情维持偏强震荡但波动回落，黄金在 20 日均线上方多单继续持 有，可卖出虚值看跌期权可赚取时间价值。 最近美元一跌，黄金就跟着往上冲，这波涨势还没到头，逻辑特别简单、接地气。 黄金是用美元计价的，美元越不值钱，买同样的黄金要花的美元就越多，金价自然就涨了。就像你去国 外买东西，人民币升值了，你花同样的钱能买更多东西；反过来，美元贬值，全球买家买黄金的成本变 低，买的人一多，价格就被推上去。 现在美元本身就处在弱势区间，而且美联储降息的预期一直没断。降息意味着美元的吸引力会下降，资 金会从美元资产里跑出来，找更保值的去处，黄金就是首选。再加上全球央行还在不停买黄金，给金价 托着底。 就算中间 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Credit Lyonnais indicates that Kwan Hung Holdings (03918) is expected to benefit from increasing foreign direct investment and a weakening US dollar, supported by regulatory advantages and improved operational efficiency [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - Credit Lyonnais forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12% for the company's earnings from 2025 to 2027, with approximately 30% of profits allocated for dividends [1] - The total capital expenditure for the NagaWorld Phase 3 project may be reduced by half from the original plan of $3.5 billion, with an expected investment payback period of about 4 to 5 years [1] Group 2: Market Position and Regulatory Environment - Kwan Hung Holdings holds a monopoly on gaming operations within a 200-kilometer radius of Phnom Penh, Cambodia, until 2045, with a national gaming license expiring in 2065 [1] - The company primarily attracts customers from Malaysia, Singapore, and China, and the low gaming tax rate in Cambodia supports its profitability, with little likelihood of tax rate increases [1]

Gold Sector - Trump's nomination of Waller as the next Federal Reserve Chair is expected to drive a 15% economic growth in the U.S., indicating a shift in monetary policy focus [2] - Central banks in Asia have increased gold purchases for 15 consecutive months, raising total reserves to 74.19 million ounces, reflecting a strategy to mitigate risks in an uncertain global economic environment [2] - Analysts suggest that if interest rates are cut twice this year, gold prices could rise further [2] - Technically, gold is experiencing wide fluctuations, with a critical support level at $4,985; a drop below this could lead to a deeper correction towards $4,845 [2] Oil Sector - The EU has imposed new sanctions on Russia, banning services that support Russian seaborne oil exports, aiming to limit Russia's energy revenue [3] - Russia's oil production in the previous month was 9.28 million barrels per day, a decrease of 46,000 barrels from December, and 300,000 barrels below its OPEC+ quota [3] - Technically, after reaching $66.45, oil prices are in a corrective phase, with potential upward movement towards the $73-$74 range if the upward trend resumes; key support is at $63 [3] Dollar Index - The IMF reported an 8.1% decline in the Bloomberg Dollar Index against a basket of 10 major currencies over the past year, marking the largest drop since 2017 [4] - Concerns about dollar depreciation have increased due to Trump's tariff policies and deteriorating U.S. fiscal policies [4] - Analysts predict that Waller's potential acceleration of balance sheet reduction could raise long-term yields, impacting economic growth and financial stability [4] - Technically, the dollar index has broken below the 96-100.20 range but rebounded from a low of 95.49; resistance is at 98, with support between 96.10-96.30 [4] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index is in a bullish trend, having reached a high of 58,569, with strong upward momentum; a pullback was followed by renewed gains, indicating a high probability of further increases [6] Copper Sector - Copper prices have stabilized after a significant drop at the end of last month, with fluctuations around the $5.64 support level; a breakout above $6.05 could signal a continuation of the bullish trend, while a drop below $5.55 may indicate a larger correction [7] Market Overview - IMF President Georgieva stated that short-term exchange rate fluctuations should not be overreacted to [8] - Federal Reserve's Bostic noted growing skepticism regarding confidence in the dollar [8] - The U.S. Maritime Administration has warned vessels to stay clear of Iranian waters [8]

年度预期溢利减少主要是由于以下因素所致：(1)美国关税影响：美国于2025年对自中国进口的钢铁和 铝制品加徵额外关税，导致集团出口至美国的主要产品线销售成本显著上升。因此，该地区业务的毛利 率较上一年度有所下降。集团已采取措施以减轻此等影响，包括选择性提价及调整运营策略。(2)美元 贬值：2025年美元(「美元」)兑人民币贬值，导致集团以美元计价的收入及应收账款兑换为人民币时产 生汇兑亏损。尽管此情况进一步压缩了集团的利润率，集团于该年度仍实现收入正增长。 格隆汇2月9日丨卡罗特(02549.HK)公布，相较于截至2024年12月31日止年度，集团截至2025年12月31日 止年度的收入预期录得约3%至5%的增长，而年度的溢利则预期减少约25%至35%。 ...

公告称，本年度预期溢利减少主要是由于以下因素所致：美国关税影响：美国于2025年对自中国进口的 钢铁和铝制品加徵额外关税，导致集团出口至美国的主要产品线销售成本显著上升。因此，该地区业务 的毛利率较上一年度有所下降。集团已采取措施以减轻此等影响，包括选择性提价及调整运营策略。美 元贬值：2025年美元兑人民币贬值，导致集团以美元计价的收入及应收账款兑换为人民币时产生汇兑亏 损。尽管此情况进一步压缩了集团的利润率，集团于本年度仍实现收入正增长。 智通财经APP讯，卡罗特(02549)公布，该集团预期2025年实现收入同比增长约约3%至5%，溢利同比减 少约25%至35%。 ...

2025年，美元迎来八年来最大年度跌幅，跌幅达9%。尽管美国政府多次表态将维护"强势美元"，但市场投资者并未给予积极回应。进入2026年，即便美元 出现短暂反弹，截至2月9日亚市早盘，美元指数仍在97.55附近窄幅震荡，较年初下跌约1%，延续了此前的疲软态势，其走弱背后的多重因素值得深入解 读。 长期以来，美元作为全球主要储备货币，拥有独特的市场优势，但其这一地位正面临结构性挑战。随着市场不确定性上升，投资者开始加速推进避险资产多 元化，不再单一依赖美元避险，欧元、瑞士法郎以及黄金等成为更优选择，资金从美元撤离的趋势逐渐明显，这也动摇了美元的储备货币根基。 政策不确定性成为美元走弱的核心诱因之一。市场分析显示，相关政策的反复与不可预期性，从根本上削弱了投资者对美元的信心。2025年4月，美国推出 的关税相关举措引发市场波动，短期内美元汇率下跌超5%，此后虽经调整，至今仍未收复当时的失地，政策不稳定带来的负面影响持续显现。 美联储人事变动进一步强化了市场的降息预期，间接拖累美元走势。据悉，美国政府提名接替鲍威尔担任美联储主席的人选，虽有鹰派货币政策背景，但市 场普遍预期其上任后可能推行激进降息举措。相关表态也释 ...

Group 1 - Senior market strategist Mike McGlone suggests that while there is a possibility for international gold prices to reach $6000 per ounce, it is more likely that they will test the support level of $4000 per ounce [1] - McGlone predicts that international silver prices could drop to $50 per ounce, indicating a bearish outlook for precious metals [1] - The significant rise in gold and silver prices in January signals that 2026 may be a year of declining prices, with the market entering a peak retracement phase [1] Group 2 - Contrary to McGlone's views, analysts from the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce forecast that the average international gold price could rise to $6000 per ounce this year, significantly higher than the previous prediction of $4500 per ounce for October 2025 [3] - The bank anticipates that the average price of international silver will be $105 per ounce this year and will increase to $120 per ounce next year, driven by persistent safe-haven demand [3] - The uncertainty in geopolitical situations is expected to continue supporting safe-haven demand, while a weakening US dollar will also be a crucial factor in driving international gold prices upward [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent dramatic decline in silver prices has raised questions among investors about where the bottom lies and when a recovery might occur [8] Group 1: Price Movements and Volatility - Silver prices experienced a nearly 30% drop last Friday and have struggled to stabilize, with a subsequent 19% decline on Thursday after brief rebounds earlier in the week [9] - UBS strategists noted that the recent drop appears driven more by widespread risk aversion than by fundamental collapse, warning that extreme volatility poses significant risks for short-term positions [9] - The one-month volatility of silver has exceeded 100%, indicating potential for severe price fluctuations in the short term [9] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - UBS forecasts a supply deficit of nearly 300 million ounces this year, with investment demand expected to exceed 400 million ounces, although high prices may suppress industrial demand [9] - The London Stock Exchange (LSEG) reported that silver has recorded 11 instances of price movements of 5% or more since the beginning of the year [9] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term volatility, UBS believes the long-term fundamentals for silver remain intact, driven by declining nominal and real interest rates, global debt issues, dollar depreciation, and expectations of global economic recovery by 2026 [9] - Vasu Menon from OCBC maintains a structural bullish outlook for silver, suggesting that it possesses dual characteristics of precious and industrial metals, which can make it vulnerable during periods of heightened risk aversion [11] - Menon set a long-term price target for silver at $134 per ounce by March 2027, highlighting its applications in solar energy, catalysts, and electronics [11] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Speculation - Nicky Shiels from MKS PAMP indicated that silver's recent performance lacks similarities to past bull markets driven by physical supply constraints, labeling it as a "meme commodity" due to its extreme volatility [10] - The expansion of retail channels has amplified speculative capital flows into silver, with expectations that prices may need to digest excess pressure from previous gains before rebounding, potentially dropping to $60 per ounce [10]