ING首席国际经济学家James Knightley指出，美联储在全球央行中"逆势而行"，依然处于明显的宽松模 式。 基于这一预期，华尔街银行预计欧元兑美元将在2026年底前升至1.20，英镑兑美元则将从目前的1.33攀 升至1.36。美元今年的疲软虽然利好美国出口商，但对于那些在美国产生销售收入的欧洲企业而言，则 构成了业绩拖累。 美联储主席人选引发市场焦虑 在唐纳德·特朗普重返白宫执政的第一年，美元正遭遇自2017年以来最严重的年度抛售潮。 受贸易战引发的经济担忧及美联储宽松货币政策预期的双重打压，这一全球储备货币的避险地位面临严 峻考验，市场正重新评估美元在"川普2.0"时代的资产价值。 根据金融时报的数据显示，美元兑一篮子主要货币今年已大幅下挫9.5%，不仅创下近十年来最大年度 跌幅，更被德意志银行全球外汇研究主管George Saravelos形容为自由浮动汇率历史上美元表现最糟糕 的年份之一。欧元成为主要受益者，兑美元汇率飙升近14%，突破1.17关口，达到2021年以来的最高水 平。 导致美元走软的关键转折点始于今年4月，当时特朗普针对美国贸易伙伴发起了激进的关税战，尽管美 元随后收复了部分失地 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar, with both onshore and offshore RMB surpassing the "7.0" mark for the first time since October 2022, indicating a significant shift in currency dynamics [1][2] - The onshore RMB reached a high of 6.9915 against the US dollar, marking its highest level since May 2023, while the offshore RMB also broke the "7" threshold, reflecting a 4% and 5% increase respectively [1] - The People's Bank of China emphasizes maintaining ample liquidity and aligning social financing growth with economic growth, while also advocating for a flexible exchange rate to prevent excessive fluctuations [2] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the recent RMB appreciation may enhance the attractiveness of China's capital markets to foreign investors, potentially increasing foreign exchange gains [2] - Despite the RMB's rise, foreign trade enterprises are advised to avoid betting on a one-sided currency trend and to utilize financial instruments like options and futures to manage exchange rate risks [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar, highlighting key factors contributing to this trend and projecting further strengthening in the coming years [6]. Group 1: Economic Factors Influencing RMB Appreciation - The RMB has shown a trend reversal since April, moving from depreciation to appreciation, with the exchange rate surpassing 7.1 and approaching the 7 mark [6]. - Four main factors are identified as driving the RMB's strength: the expansion of the current account surplus, easing trade conflicts, increasing purchasing power of the RMB, and the potential continued depreciation of the US dollar [6]. - China's current account surplus is expected to reach a historical high in 2025, providing significant support for the appreciation of the RMB [7]. Group 2: Implications for the Chinese Economy - A sustained weak US dollar and rising international commodity prices, along with a moderate appreciation of the RMB, could alleviate the impact of rising raw material prices on the Chinese economy and enhance the international purchasing power of Chinese residents [5].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that the RMB exchange rate has been appreciating continuously since late November, recently reaching new highs for the year, with the offshore RMB rate surpassing 7.0, accelerating in its appreciation [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections - **Exchange Rate Movement** - The offshore RMB exchange rate broke the 7.0 mark on December 25, reaching its highest level since September 2024, while the onshore RMB rate is also close to the 7.0 threshold, marking its highest since May 2023 [1]. - **Drivers of Appreciation** - The depreciation of the US dollar and seasonal factors are identified as direct drivers of the current appreciation of the RMB. However, monetary authorities have moderately restrained the pace of this appreciation [1]. - **Market Expectations** - Overall, the year-end appreciation of the RMB is not unexpected, although the extent of the appreciation has slightly exceeded expectations. The primary factors contributing to this rapid appreciation in the short term are the significant decline of the US dollar and the resonance of seasonal factors [1].

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the offshore RMB exchange rate, surpassing the 7.0 mark, is attributed to the depreciation of the USD and seasonal factors, with the pace of appreciation exceeding expectations [2][3][4]. Group 1: USD Depreciation and Market Conditions - The USD index has weakened continuously since late November, with a decline of over 2% as of December 25, driven by market expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [3][4]. - Weak performance in the US labor market and inflation data has contributed to expectations of a potential easing by the Federal Reserve, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6% in November and average hourly earnings dropping to a low of 3.5% year-on-year [4][9]. Group 2: Seasonal Factors Influencing RMB Appreciation - Historically, the RMB tends to appreciate significantly at the end of the year, driven by factors such as increased settlement needs from exporters and a general weakening of the USD [13][15]. - In December, the RMB appreciated by approximately 1%, with an annualized rate exceeding 10%, although such rapid appreciation may not be sustainable [20][21]. Group 3: Internal and External Factors Supporting RMB Strength - The RMB's strength is supported by low inflation, strong exports, and high trade surpluses, with the trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion in November [22][23]. - The Chinese government is focusing on boosting domestic demand rather than relying solely on external demand, which is expected to support the RMB's appreciation in the medium to long term [22][24]. Group 4: Future Outlook for RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB is expected to maintain a moderate appreciation trend, with potential fluctuations influenced by external factors such as the USD's seasonal rebound and domestic market conditions post-Chinese New Year [20][21]. - The anticipated depreciation of the USD by around 5% next year could lead to a corresponding RMB appreciation of approximately 1.7% based on historical relationships [24].

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has broken the 7.0 mark against the USD, reaching a high of 6.9973, marking a significant moment in global finance and indicating a shift in the global currency landscape [2] Group 1: RMB Strength and Economic Context - The RMB's rise to the "6 era" reflects a robust recovery of the Chinese economy after challenges, showcasing its resilience [2] - In 2025, the USD index experienced a nearly 8% decline, the largest annual drop in nine years, driven by structural economic issues in the U.S. [3] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's three interest rate cuts in 2025 diminished the attractiveness of USD-denominated assets [3] Group 2: Global Currency Dynamics - Global central banks are reducing their USD reserves due to concerns over the U.S. debt expansion, leading to a diversification of currency reserves [4] - The perception of the USD as a safe haven is weakening, prompting capital to seek new opportunities, with China emerging as a preferred destination [4] Group 3: Trade Surplus and Economic Foundations - China's trade surplus surpassed $1 trillion in the first 11 months of 2025, a historic achievement indicating strong net earnings from global markets [6] - The composition of the trade surplus has shifted from low-value goods to high-value products like automobiles and advanced machinery, enhancing the credibility of the RMB [8] Group 4: Policy and Market Stability - The People's Bank of China has maintained a stable RMB without resorting to competitive devaluation, demonstrating strategic policy strength [9] - The relative stability of the China-U.S. interest rate differential has kept RMB assets attractive, evidenced by significant foreign capital inflows into Chinese government bonds [9] Group 5: Long-term Outlook for RMB - The RMB's return to the "6 era" suggests a likely long-term appreciation trend, supported by ongoing productivity improvements in China [11] - The current low allocation of global capital to Chinese assets compared to its economic size indicates potential for future inflows [11] Group 6: Opportunities and Challenges - RMB appreciation presents opportunities to lower import costs and combat inflation, while also posing short-term challenges for export-oriented businesses [13] - The recent RMB strength may signify a pivotal moment for the currency's transition from a regional to a global reserve currency [13]

Core Insights - The price of gold has experienced a significant rally in the latter months of 2025 [1] Industry Summary - The gold market has shown strong performance, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment towards safe-haven assets [1]

Group 1 - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is largely attributed to the weakening of the dollar due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, rather than a strong performance of the RMB itself [1][4] - The RMB has appreciated approximately 4.5% to 6% since the beginning of the year, while the US dollar index has declined nearly 10%, indicating a relative weakness of the dollar [1][4] - The appreciation of the RMB has mixed implications for different sectors; it benefits importers and students studying abroad by reducing costs, while it poses challenges for export-oriented businesses facing reduced competitiveness [6][9] Group 2 - Export-oriented companies are experiencing pressure as the appreciation of the RMB makes their products more expensive in international markets, potentially leading to a loss of orders and profit margins [6][10] - The end-of-year "settlement tide" drives demand for RMB as export companies convert their dollar earnings into RMB for year-end payments, contributing to the RMB's appreciation [12][10] - Despite the RMB's appreciation against the dollar, it has depreciated against a basket of other currencies, which helps maintain price competitiveness for exports to regions like Europe and Japan [14][10] Group 3 - Market sentiment can amplify the RMB's appreciation, leading to self-reinforcing cycles of investment based on expectations of further appreciation, which could create volatility [15][16] - Financial authorities emphasize the importance of stability in the RMB exchange rate, implementing measures to prevent excessive fluctuations that could disrupt business operations and personal financial plans [15][16] - Experts recommend that businesses and individuals focus on their core operations and manage currency risk through financial instruments, rather than speculating on currency movements [18][19]

Core Viewpoint - The coexistence of a weak dollar and strong US stocks this year is attributed to the resonance of macro cycles and industrial transformation, with the AI wave providing substantial support and outlook for the industry [2][11]. Group 1: Macro Drivers - The depreciation of the dollar has a mid-term positive impact on US stocks, as they are negatively correlated; a 10% decline in the dollar index can lead to a 2-3% increase in S&P 500 revenues [24][29]. - The international revenue exposure of S&P 500 companies is rising, with approximately 41% of revenues expected to come from outside the US by 2024, indicating a high degree of internationalization among larger firms [13][19]. - The technology sector has the highest international revenue exposure at 59%, benefiting significantly from a weaker dollar, while other sectors like utilities and finance remain more domestically focused [16][22]. Group 2: AI as a Driving Force - The AI sector has not yet reached a bubble, but concerns are emerging; the current high valuations are supported by strong fundamentals, with significant demand for computing power [39][44]. - The financing model for tech giants is shifting from cash flow-driven to debt-driven, with capital expenditures expected to rise significantly, raising concerns about sustainability and return on investment [57][59]. - The demand for AI capabilities is projected to grow, with McKinsey estimating a need for $6.7 trillion in capital expenditures for global data centers by 2030, indicating a robust growth trajectory for AI-related investments [50]. Group 3: Investment Outlook - The US stock market is expected to transition from a dual driver of earnings and valuation to a single driver focused on earnings, with a predicted earnings growth of 11.8% in 2025 and 14.2% in 2026 [67][75]. - Despite high valuations, the market is not in a bubble; the focus should be on earning growth rather than betting on further valuation expansion [79]. - The technology and materials sectors are recommended for investment, as they offer a favorable balance of growth and valuation, with technology being the primary beneficiary of the AI wave [82].

Core Viewpoint - The current report from the CICC macro asset team suggests that the Federal Reserve remains in a loose monetary cycle, and the U.S. economy is facing stagflation, indicating that the gold bull market may continue until a turning point in U.S. policy and economy is observed [1] Group 1: Gold Market Outlook - The gold bull market may not have ended as the Federal Reserve's policies and the U.S. economy have not shown signs of a turning point [1] - Market volatility is expected to increase as gold prices have diverged from fundamental indicators, making specific price predictions challenging [1] - A potential turning point is anticipated in early 2026, where rising inflation and marginal economic improvement may lead the Federal Reserve to slow its easing pace, which could temporarily pressure gold prices [1] Group 2: Factors Supporting Gold Prices - Gold prices recently surpassed $4,500 per ounce, reaching a historical high due to three main factors: 1. The Federal Reserve's resumption of the easing cycle, having cut rates three times by 25 basis points each and planning to purchase short-term government bonds starting in December [2] 2. A decline in the credibility of the U.S. dollar, with the fiscal deficit rising to around 6% post-pandemic, leading to increased debt risks and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve [2] 3. Escalating global geopolitical risks, including U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports and ongoing tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3] Group 3: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices have seen even greater increases than gold, influenced by industrial supply and demand factors [3] - The demand for silver is expected to rise in sectors such as photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, and electronic equipment, while supply expansion remains limited, leading to tighter supply-demand dynamics [3]