| | | 沪铅产业日报 2025-11-20 扩大导致的进口增加，并且再生铅开工积极，预计铅库存仍有累积空间。综合来看，沪铅市场整体供应增 长幅度受限，需求增长也面临一定阻力；且库存端预计将继续累积的情况下，继续维持震荡概率加大。今 日沪铅价格维持震荡，盘面未有太大波动，继续关注16980支撑位 研究员: 黄闻杰 期货从业资格号F03142112 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021738 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 | | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪铅主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 17220 | -30 LME3个月铅报价(日,美元/吨) | 2014.5 | -12.5 | | | 12-01月合约价差:沪铅(日,元/吨) | -20 | 0 沪铅持仓量(日,手) | 82766 | -4281 | | | 沪铅前20名净持仓(日,手) | -3236 | 573 沪铅仓单(日,吨) | 0 | 0 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 42790 | 4208 LME铅库存(日,吨) | ...

【#为何金价出现大逆转#？#全球央行仍在爆买黄金#】美东时间11月18日，国际金价、银价再次反弹， 现货黄金收涨0.54%，现货白银收涨1%，报50.68美元/盎司。截至发稿，现货黄金、COMEX黄金期货 继续反弹。11月18日下午，现货黄金跌破4000美元/盎司关口，为11月10日以来首次。为何金价出现先 抑后扬走势？中国外汇投资研究院研究总监李钢对@中新经纬 表示，金价此前连续几天下跌过快，市 场多头被迫止损后，盘面反而积累一定反弹需求。一旦美元指数和美债收益率回落，短线资金迅速回补 头寸，带动金价向上修复。最新数据显示，全球央行9月净购金达到64吨，是上月的两倍多。其中，中 国增持约15吨。李钢称，官方买盘让市场更愿意在低位承接，也缓和了此前的抛售情绪。对于金价走 势，李钢认为，短期波动将继续加大，金价行情仍取决于美联储议息前的经济数据和美元走势。（宅男 财经）#黄金又反弹# 来源：@中新经纬微博 ...

Core Viewpoint - The end of the longest government shutdown in U.S. history will lead to a dense release of delayed economic data, which is crucial for the market and the Federal Reserve to assess the economic situation [1][5]. Data Release Schedule - The U.S. Department of Commerce and the Department of Labor have announced a detailed schedule for the release of delayed economic data starting next Thursday. Over 30 important economic reports, including employment, inflation, and GDP, were postponed or canceled during the shutdown [2]. - Key data releases include the September non-farm payroll report on November 20 and the September real wage data on November 21. The third-quarter GDP revision will be published on November 26, along with personal income, spending, and PCE price index for October [3][4]. Impact on Federal Reserve Decision-Making - The unprecedented data void caused by the 43-day government shutdown has clouded the Federal Reserve's judgment regarding the economic situation [5]. - Apollo's chief economist noted that the market was in a "very dark and foggy" state during the shutdown, and while the fog is dissipating, it will not clear completely in the short term [6]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphasized that a rate cut in December is not a "foregone conclusion," and the lack of data may influence the committee's decision. Barclays economists pointed out significant disagreements within the Federal Open Market Committee regarding the timing and pace of rate cuts due to the absence of new data [7]. Challenges in Key Economic Indicators - Although the September employment data is expected to be released on time, the October data faces challenges. The White House press secretary warned that October inflation and employment data "may never be published," and any released data will be "permanently flawed" [8]. - The Director of the National Economic Council indicated that only half of the employment report will be available, lacking the unemployment rate for that month [9]. - The collection of consumer price data is particularly problematic, as about two-thirds of the price data requires in-person visits to stores, which cannot be retroactively gathered [10]. Broader Economic Implications - The data void will affect social security payments tied to inflation and influence corporate hiring and inventory decisions ahead of the holiday season. Economists suggest that it may take months for data to return to normalcy as businesses navigate uncertainties related to trade policies and consumer spending [10].

美国历史最长政府停摆结束后，积压的经济数据将密集发布，为市场与美联储评估经济状况提供关键依 据。美国商务部和劳工部已公布详细时间表，数据发布将从下周四开始陆续展开。 停摆期间超过30项重要经济报告被迫延期或取消，包括就业、通胀、GDP等核心指标。尽管即将公布的 数据将为美联储议息提供一定支撑，但经济学家指出，信息缺口造成的"迷雾"难以迅速驱散，要完全消 化所有数据仍需时日。 值得注意的是，部分关键数据的发布仍存变数。美国劳工部方面表示，10月消费者物价指数（CPI）能 否如期发布尚不确定，由于约三分之二的物价数据需实地采集，无法通过事后追溯方式补全。 关键数据密集发布时间确定 美国商务部和劳工部已敲定积压数据的发布时间表。11月20日，美国劳工部统计局将发布9月非农就业 报告，11月21日发布9月实际薪资数据。 美国商务部表示，第三季度GDP修正值将于美东时间11月26日上午8:30发布，同日还将公布10月份个人 收入、支出及PCE价格指数。 此外，10月份国际贸易报告将于美东时间12月4日上午8:30（北京时间21:30）发布，12月19日，美国商 务部将公布第三季度GDP终值。 据大摩预测，美联储在12月 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - After the macro events such as the China-US summit and the Fed's interest rate meeting, the market's positive factors have been fully realized. However, the Fed has released a hawkish guidance, which exerts downward pressure on risk assets in Q4. The domestic economy still faces significant pressure, with the manufacturing PMI hitting a new low, indicating insufficient demand. But the incremental fiscal funds are expected to support the economy [4]. - The domestic economic data continues to be weak, especially in the consumption and real estate sectors. The high-frequency real estate sales data has declined significantly without incremental positive policies. The export orders shown by the PMI have dropped sharply, related to the end of the rush to export. The anti-involution policy is being promoted, resulting in a weak supply and demand in the real economy [4]. - The domestic liquidity is generally loose, with the government debt financing rising continuously and the marginal increase in open market money supply. The short-term liquidity is neutral, but the credit impulse in Q4 is marginally tightening. Passive ETF funds continue to be subscribed, and margin trading funds continue to flow in stably. The reduction intensity of industrial capital has slowed down. Overseas liquidity is marginally tightening under the Fed's hawkish guidance, and foreign capital has a marginal outflow tendency. The overall supply and demand of market funds are relatively optimistic, but there are also some differences, so beware of the risk of high-level style switching [4]. - After a sharp short-term rise, the valuations of various indices have reached relatively high levels in history. The stock-bond risk premiums at home and abroad are low, and the attractiveness of allocation funds is average [4]. - Currently, the broad-based index market has high valuations, especially the growth style. The risk premium indices at home and abroad have dropped to low levels, and the attractiveness of the stock market has decreased marginally. With the large market scale, the limited liquidity is difficult to drive continuous growth. After the short-term macro positive factors are fully realized, the market enters a policy vacuum period. With the marginal support of fiscal funds for the economy in Q4, the overall macro fluctuations are expected to be small. The market may maintain a high-level range-bound trend, similar to that in Q4 last year. Focus on structural opportunities. It is recommended to adopt a high-sell and low-buy strategy for stock indices in November. Consider shorting IF, IC, and IM stock indices in the high-rebound area and going long on IF and IH stock indices in the sharp-drop low area. Pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on the cyclical style and shorting the growth style [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - In the past month, among global stock markets, the Nikkei 225 led the rise, while the Hang Seng Tech Index led the decline. Among domestic stock markets, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.85%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 4.05% [8][9]. - In the past month, among industries, coal led the rise, while media led the decline [12]. - In the past month, the basis rates of the four major stock index futures (IH, IF, IC, and IM) changed by 0.19%, 0.14%, -0.35%, and 0.65% respectively. The discounts of IC and IM widened, while the discounts of IF and IH narrowed slightly. The changes in the inter - period spreads of the four major stock index futures were generally small, but the long - term discounts of IC and IM widened significantly [18]. Fund Flow - In October, margin trading funds flowed in 104.93 billion yuan to reach 2.5 trillion yuan, and the proportion of margin trading balance to the circulating market value of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased by 0.08% to 2.58%. The scale of passive stock ETF funds was 3.73373 trillion yuan, an increase of 125.81 billion yuan from the previous month. The share was 211.724 billion shares, with a subscription of 76.25 billion shares from the previous month, and a subscription of 5.89 billion shares in the latest week, with the scale increasing by 15.36 billion yuan [21]. - In October, equity financing was 49.44 billion yuan, with 6 companies. IPO financing was 12.16 billion yuan, private placement was 37.27 billion yuan, and convertible bond financing was 5.48 billion yuan. The equity financing scale decreased significantly, mainly due to the reduction in private placement. The market value of restricted - share lifting in October was 246.84 billion yuan, a decrease of 58.14 billion yuan from the previous month, mainly due to the one - week less trading time during the National Day holiday. The reduction scale in the recent week decreased marginally, with the monthly - annualized scale dropping to 211.28 billion yuan [24]. Liquidity - In October, the central bank's OMO reverse repurchase expired 5.8572 trillion yuan, with a reverse repurchase issuance of 5.2761 trillion yuan, resulting in a net money withdrawal of 58.11 billion yuan. The liquidity in the open - market business tightened. The MLF issued 900 billion yuan and expired 700 billion yuan in October, with a net issuance of 20 billion yuan. The MLF has had a net issuance for 8 consecutive months, and the overall liquidity supply is neutral to loose [26]. - In October, the DR007, R001, and SHIBOR overnight rates changed by 1.7bp, - 12.6bp, and - 5.8bp respectively to 1.46%, 1.41%, and 1.32%. The issuance rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased by 8.5bp, and the CD rate issued by joint - stock banks dropped by 2.1bp to 1.64%. The capital supply tended to be loose, and the debt financing demand was strong. The capital price generally fluctuated at a low level [32]. - In October, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond changed by - 8.1bp, the 5 - year Treasury bond yield changed by - 5.6bp, and the 2 - year Treasury bond yield changed by - 10.9bp. The 10 - year CDB bond yield changed by - 11.1bp, the 5 - year CDB bond yield changed by - 7.3bp, and the 2 - year CDB bond yield changed by - 6.8bp. Overall, the yield term structure steepened slightly in October, and both long - and short - term interest rates decreased significantly, mainly due to the weak economic data and the decline in financing demand. The credit spread between Treasury bonds and CDB bonds narrowed significantly at the long end, indicating a cooling of the broad - credit expectation [36]. - As of October 31, the 10 - year US Treasury bond rate changed by - 5.0bp to 4.11%, the inflation expectation changed by - 6.0bp to 2.30%, and the real interest rate changed by 1.00bp to 1.81%. The risk asset prices were first boosted and then suppressed by the financial conditions. The 10 - 2Y spread of US Treasury bonds changed by - 5.00bp to 51.00bp. The inversion of the China - US interest rate spread widened slightly by 1.12bp to - 231.42bp, and the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.11%. The US dollar against the RMB fluctuated at a level below the mid - point of the three - year range [39]. Macroeconomic Fundamentals - As of October 30, the weekly trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 2.074 million square meters, a slight decrease from the previous week's 2.101 million square meters, returning to a relatively low level in the same period. Compared with the same period in 2019 before the pandemic, it decreased by 45.4%. The second - hand housing sales decreased seasonally and significantly from the previous month, returning to a relatively low level in the past seven years. The real estate market sales showed a weak performance overall, with the sales center oscillating at a low level, and there were signs of marginal acceleration of weakening in the short term [43]. - As of October 31, the weekly average daily subway passenger volume in 28 large - and medium - sized cities in China remained at a high level, reaching 83.8 million person - times, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% and a 32% increase compared with the same period in 2021. The economic activity in the service industry heated up marginally. The traffic congestion delay index in 100 cities rebounded from the previous week, remaining at a neutral level in the past three years. Overall, the economic activity in the service industry tended to a natural and stable growth level, with insignificant monthly changes [46]. - In October, the overall capacity utilization rate of the manufacturing industry decreased. The capacity utilization rate of steel mills changed by - 2.25%, the asphalt capacity utilization rate changed by - 8.6%, the cement clinker enterprise capacity utilization rate changed by 5%, the coking enterprise capacity utilization rate changed by - 1.99%, and the average operating rate of the chemical industry chain related to external demand changed by - 0.5% from the previous month. On the one hand, the implementation of the anti - involution policy led to a decrease in capacity utilization; on the other hand, the weakening of domestic and foreign demand in the manufacturing industry led to a reduction in enterprise operating rates [50]. - In terms of exports, after the tariff policies of the US on major countries have been finalized and the China - US summit postponed the tariff policy exemption for one year, the risk of a full - scale escalation of trade frictions has dropped sharply. After the previous export impulse effect, there is a risk of a pulse decline in Q4. China's manufacturing export competitiveness is strong, and after the decline in trade friction risks, it is expected to maintain its potential growth rate for a long time, supporting the economic center [58]. - In September, the US CPI inflation continued to rebound, while the core CPI inflation unexpectedly decreased, with a month - on - month decline of 0.1% to 3%. In terms of structure, energy prices contributed the main increase, the growth of food and beverages related to commodity inflation did not expand, and the housing and medical sub - items related to core inflation declined significantly, especially the housing sub - item, which decreased by 0.2% in a single month, indicating that the policy of expelling illegal immigrants began to affect core inflation again. Assuming that the month - on - month growth rate in October remains at 0.3% and drops to 0.2% from November to December, the annualized month - on - month rate at the end of the year will drop to 2.84%, and the Fed has limited room for further interest rate cuts this year [59]. - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October as expected by the market, but Powell released a hawkish guidance in the press conference, expressing concerns about the lag effect of tariffs on inflation and stating that the overall economic pressure was not large, and the preventive interest rate cuts were expected to end. The financial market significantly revised the overly optimistic market expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts. According to the CME's FedWatch tool, the probability of another interest rate cut in December 2025 dropped significantly to 63%, and the market will maintain a wait - and - see attitude until next April. The expected terminal interest rate for this year's interest rate cuts is between 3.5% - 3.75% [63]. Other Analyses - In the past month, the stock - bond risk premium was 2.56%, a decrease of 0.04% from the previous month, at the 44.1% quantile. The foreign - capital risk premium index was 3.39%, a decrease of 0.1% from the previous month, at the 16.7% quantile. The attractiveness of foreign capital was at a relatively low level [66]. - The valuations of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices were at the 86.4%, 86.6%, 95.7%, and 85.3% quantiles respectively in the past five years, with relatively high valuation levels. The quantiles changed by 0.3%, - 1.6%, - 4%, and - 0.3% respectively from the previous month, and the attractiveness of the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices increased marginally [70]. - According to the seasonal pattern analysis, the stock market in November is in a period of seasonal oscillation and structural differentiation. In terms of style, the growth style takes the lead first, followed by the cyclical style, with an overall high - level oscillation. The profit - making effect of the stock market in November is generally poor, and the style switches frequently. Considering the high valuation of the current growth style, the weak real - economy situation, and the full realization of positive factors, it is prone to high - level adjustments. Since the IF, IH, and IC are highly related to AI technology, all styles have adjustment risks. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of the cyclical style's supplementary increase and the switch from the growth style to AI applications. Go long on IF and IH in case of a sharp drop, and conduct high - sell and low - buy operations on IC and IM [74].

Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but Chairman Powell indicated that another similar reduction in December is "far from" a foregone conclusion [1] - Traders have reduced bets on another rate cut in December, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut now at 74.7%, down from 91.1% a week prior [1] - Following Powell's relatively hawkish comments, the US dollar remained strong, holding above the 99 level, with potential upward movement towards the 102 resistance if it breaks above 100.50 [1] Group 2: European Central Bank Meeting - The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to keep key interest rates unchanged, with the deposit rate at 2%, refinancing operation rate at 2.15%, and marginal lending facility rate at 2.40% [2] - This decision reflects the resilience of the Eurozone economy amid global trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties, with inflation nearing the 2% medium-term target [2] - The ECB's future path will heavily depend on President Lagarde's statements, with potential for a 50-75 basis point easing window next year as inflation is expected to drop to 1.7% [2]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index broke through the 4000-point mark for the third time in history on October 28, marking its first return to this level in a decade, although it later retreated to close at 3988 points [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 21,479 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,923 billion yuan compared to the previous Monday [1] Competition Insights - The 76th session of the simulated stock trading competition, hosted by the Daily Economic News App, began on October 20, with some participants achieving returns exceeding 40% [1] - The competition allows participants to simulate trading with a capital of 500,000 yuan, running from October 20 to October 31, with registration open until October 31 [1] Rewards Structure - Cash rewards for the competition include 688 yuan for the first place, 188 yuan for the second to fourth places, and 88 yuan for the fifth to tenth places, with additional distribution of 500 yuan among other profitable participants [3] - Monthly leaderboard rewards include 888 yuan for the top position, with decreasing amounts for subsequent ranks, ensuring a broad distribution of incentives [3] Market Sentiment - Experts participating in the competition noted a cautious market sentiment, as the index broke through the critical resistance level of 3950 points with declining trading volume, indicating increased market observation ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and the APEC meeting [3] - Promising sectors identified by participants include brokerage firms, transformer exports, logistics robots, and rare metals [3] Trading Tools and Resources - Participants have reported success in leveraging the Daily Economic News App's "Fire Line Quick Review" feature, which has highlighted opportunities in the silver sector multiple times this year [4] - Registration for the competition grants access to six days of free reading of the "Fire Line Quick Review," with additional rewards for top performers [4]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its 22nd day, becoming the second longest in history, with potential implications for economic data and Federal Reserve decision-making [1][2] Economic Data Impact - The shutdown is causing a "data black hole," leading to the suspension of key economic data releases, which poses a direct challenge for the Federal Reserve's decision-making process [2] - Morgan Stanley estimates that 750,000 federal employees will be furloughed daily, which will temporarily inflate the unemployment rate by 44 basis points, despite eventual back pay [2][3] Economic Loss Assessment - Despite the chaos in data, Morgan Stanley believes the actual economic loss is manageable, estimating a GDP drag of about 0.25%, with most impacts expected to be repaired in the following quarter [3] - Federal employees will miss their first full paycheck this Friday, exacerbating economic damage, and the White House warns of potential disruptions in military pay and federal food assistance [3] Political Stalemate - The shutdown stems from a deadlock between Democrats and Republicans over healthcare subsidies, with Democrats demanding relief for 22 million Americans facing rising insurance premiums [4] - Former President Trump has stated that negotiations will not occur until the shutdown ends, complicating the path to a resolution [4] Cost Disagreement - The core disagreement revolves around the cost of extending healthcare subsidies, which were initially introduced as emergency measures during the pandemic and are projected to increase federal debt by $350 billion over the next decade [5] - Moderate senators have not made progress in private negotiations, with key figures expressing skepticism about finding a way out of the deadlock [5]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market is currently experiencing a strong upward trend, with prices supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates for an extended period without significant increases [2][3] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, are contributing to gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, with ongoing demand from official purchases and ETF holdings providing a stabilizing effect [2][3] - Technical analysis indicates that gold has broken through the key resistance level of 4270, suggesting a continuation of the bullish trend, with short-term support identified at 4320 [5][6] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - The oil market is currently facing downward pressure, with WTI crude oil prices nearing a low of 55.12 USD per barrel, influenced by easing trade concerns and market sentiment [6][7] - Despite short-term support around 57 USD for WTI and 61 USD for Brent, the long-term outlook remains cautious due to ongoing supply-demand dynamics and potential trade uncertainties [6][7] - Technical indicators suggest a bearish trend for oil, with MACD showing a downward momentum, indicating that the market may continue to experience downward pressure in the near term [7]

Core Insights - The market is experiencing volatility with daily fluctuations, influenced by factors such as tariff negotiations and Federal Reserve meetings [3] - There is a mixed sentiment in the market, with both positive and negative influences affecting future strategies [3] Market Dynamics - The post-holiday market has shown continuous ups and downs, indicating a turbulent trading environment [3] - The focus on expanding domestic demand and strengthening internal circulation is highlighted as a key strategy moving forward [3] Expert Guidance - Northeast Securities is hosting a live session featuring experienced investment advisors to provide insights and guidance on navigating the current market conditions [3]