Workflow
裂解价差
icon
Search documents
燃料油日报:埃及燃料油采购出现下滑迹象-20250806
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 05:22
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the crude oil price has weakened, driving down the unilateral prices of FU and LU. The expectation of a looser medium-term balance sheet potentially suppresses the energy sector [2]. - In the high-sulfur fuel oil market, the market structure has been weak recently, and the crack spread has significantly declined from its high. Currently, the spot supply is relatively abundant, while the demand lacks growth momentum. Egypt, which had strong demand previously, has shown signs of slower procurement. In July, Egypt's high-sulfur fuel oil arrivals were 610,000 tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons from June, and the estimated imports in August are only 260,000 tons. After increasing LNG imports, the raw material gap in power plants has been partially filled, leading to a marginal decline in the substitution demand for fuel oil. Looking forward, the structural positive factors for high-sulfur fuel oil have not completely disappeared. If the crack spread adjusts sufficiently to attract a significant rebound in refinery demand, opportunities for the market structure to strengthen again can be observed [2]. - In the low-sulfur fuel oil market, the current market pressure is limited. However, as the tight situation of overseas diesel eases, the support for the low-sulfur fuel oil market may weaken, and the supply of components is expected to increase. In the medium term, due to the relatively abundant remaining capacity of low-sulfur fuel oil, once the crack profit is appropriate, it will attract supply release. Moreover, the carbon-neutral trend in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low-sulfur fuel oil, and the market outlook remains pessimistic [2]. 3. Strategy Summary - High-sulfur: Take appropriate profit on the previous short position of FU crack spread (FU-Brent or FU-SC) [3] - Low-sulfur: No specific strategy mentioned [3] - Cross-variety: Take appropriate profit on the previous short position of FU crack spread (FU-Brent or FU-SC) [3] - Cross-period: Gradually take profit on the previous FU reverse arbitrage position [3] - Spot-futures: No strategy [3] - Options: No strategy [3] 4. Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 0.94% at 2,842 yuan/ton in the daytime session, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.78% at 3,560 yuan/ton [1]
《能源化工》日报-20250806
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 02:34
1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Polyester Industry Chain**: PX supply is expected to increase in August due to new device production and restart of some PX maintenance devices. The supply - demand situation is expected to weaken, and PX is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. PTA supply - demand is expected to improve, but the medium - term outlook is weak. Ethylene glycol supply is turning loose, with a small inventory build - up expected. Short - fiber, bottle - chip, and other products also face different supply - demand situations and price trends [2]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry**: The supply - demand of pure benzene is expected to improve in the third quarter, but the overall supply is sufficient, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The supply - demand of styrene is expected to be weak, with high port inventory, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. - **Urea Industry**: The main driving force for the rebound of the urea market is the surge in overseas export demand and the expected increase in domestic industrial demand. The secondary driving force is the possible marginal tightening of supply due to local maintenance. The short - term market is still in the shock range, and attention should be paid to multiple factors such as port collection volume and overseas prices [12]. - **Methanol Industry**: The domestic methanol production is at a high level, the port inventory is slightly increasing, the basis is weakening, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to buy at low prices for the 01 contract [17]. - **Chlor - Alkali Industry**: The caustic soda market is in the off - season, with an expected increase in supply, and the overall outlook is neutral to weak. The PVC market is under pressure, with increasing inventory and weak demand, and the price is expected to continue to decline [27]. - **Crude Oil Industry**: The overnight oil price declined due to OPEC+ production increase, which is expected to increase global supply and suppress oil prices in the medium - long term. If there is no greater geopolitical shock, the supply - demand logic will continue to dominate the oil price trend [56]. - **Polyolefin Industry**: In August, the inventory pressure of PP and PE increases, and the demand is at a low level. However, there are potential restocking conditions in the seasonal peak season, and the overall valuation is moderately high with few fundamental contradictions [53]. 3. Summary by Directory Polyester Industry Chain - **Price and Spread**: On August 5, most polyester product prices and spreads declined. For example, POY150/48 price dropped by 20 yuan/ton, and its cash flow decreased by 74.7% [2]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: PX supply is expected to increase, and the supply - demand is expected to weaken. PTA supply - demand is expected to improve in August, but the medium - term outlook is weak. Ethylene glycol supply is turning loose [2]. - **Strategy**: For PX, close short positions for PX09 and pay attention to the support around 6650. For PTA, close short positions for TA and conduct TA9 - 1 rolling reverse arbitrage [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Price and Spread**: On August 5, most prices and spreads of pure benzene and styrene declined. For example, the pure benzene - styrene spot price dropped by 30 yuan/ton, and the EB cash flow decreased significantly [7]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The supply - demand of pure benzene is expected to improve in the third quarter, but the overall supply is sufficient. The supply - demand of styrene is expected to be weak, with high port inventory [7]. - **Strategy**: For styrene, close short positions for EB09 [7]. Urea Industry - **Price and Spread**: On August 5, the urea futures price and related spreads showed certain changes, and the spot price also had different degrees of increase or decrease in different regions [12]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The main driving force for the rebound is the increase in demand, and the secondary driving force is the possible marginal tightening of supply. The short - term market is still in the shock range [12]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to multiple factors such as port collection volume and overseas prices [12]. Methanol Industry - **Price and Spread**: On August 5, the methanol futures price and related spreads changed, and the spot price also had different trends in different regions [17]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The domestic production is at a high level, the port inventory is slightly increasing, and the downstream demand is weak [17]. - **Strategy**: Buy at low prices for the 01 contract [17]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Price and Spread**: On August 5, the prices of caustic soda and PVC products changed. For example, the price of Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda decreased by 60 yuan/ton, and the price of East China calcium carbide - based PVC increased by 30 yuan/ton [22]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The caustic soda market is in the off - season, with an expected increase in supply. The PVC market is under pressure, with increasing inventory and weak demand [27]. - **Strategy**: For caustic soda, hold short positions at high levels. For PVC, expect the price to continue to decline [27]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price and Spread**: On August 6, the prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil changed, and the spreads between different varieties and contracts also changed [56]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: OPEC+ production increase is expected to increase global supply and suppress oil prices in the medium - long term [56]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a band - trading strategy, with support levels for WTI at [63, 64], Brent at [66, 67], and SC at [495, 505]. Capture volatility contraction opportunities in the options market [56]. Polyolefin Industry - **Price and Spread**: On August 5, the prices of polyolefin futures and spot products increased to varying degrees, and the spreads between different contracts also changed [53]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: In August, the inventory pressure of PP and PE increases, and the demand is at a low level, but there are potential restocking conditions in the seasonal peak season [53]. - **Strategy**: Close short positions at 7200 - 7300 for the previous single - side short positions, and continue to hold the LP01 position [53].
国投期货能源日报-20250805
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-08-05 11:29
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not explicitly stated, but the symbol implies a neutral state [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆, representing a more distinct bearish trend with a current appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆, indicating a bearish view with a relatively clear downward trend and the market is being affected [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, suggesting a more distinct bearish trend and a current appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, meaning a more distinct bearish trend and a current appropriate investment opportunity [1] Core Views - The international oil price dropped overnight, and the SC09 contract declined by 1.07% during the day. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, pressuring the oil market in the fourth quarter. However, sanctions risks and peak - season demand support the market. There is an upside risk due to secondary sanctions on Russian oil after the price correction this week [2] - Crude oil led the decline in oil - related futures, but the decline of fuel - related futures was limited. The fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil markets are weak, and with the recent cost decline, FU and LU are under pressure. The short - term cracking spreads of FU and LU are expected to remain weak [2] - In July, the inflow of Venezuelan crude oil into China increased by 3.8% month - on - month. The August production plan decreased compared to July, but some refineries' actual production exceeded the plan. The overall commercial inventory increased slightly but remained at a relatively low level in recent years. The supply - side growth space of asphalt is considered neutral, and the BU trend mainly follows the crude oil direction with limited volatility [3] - The Middle East CP has been significantly reduced, but the spot discount has shrunk. The domestic demand for LPG has bottom - level support as the PDH operating rate continues to rise. The supply is relatively loose in July, and the refinery gas may continue to follow the decline in import costs. The LPG futures price maintains a low ratio to oil, and the current basis has risen to a relatively high level, remaining in a weak oscillation [4] Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The overnight international oil price fell, with the SC09 contract down 1.07% during the day. OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, increasing the supply - demand pressure in the fourth quarter. However, sanctions risks and peak - season demand support the market. There is an upside risk due to secondary sanctions on Russian oil after the price correction this week. Also, attention should be paid to the extension of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Crude oil led the decline in oil - related futures, but the decline of fuel - related futures was limited, especially the low - sulfur fuel oil with a decline of less than 1%. The fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil markets are weak, and with the recent cost decline, FU and LU are under pressure. The short - term cracking spreads of FU and LU are expected to remain weak [2] Asphalt - In July, the inflow of Venezuelan crude oil into China increased by 3.8% month - on - month. The August production plan decreased compared to July, but some refineries' actual production exceeded the plan. The overall commercial inventory increased slightly but remained at a relatively low level in recent years. The supply - side growth space of asphalt is considered neutral, and the BU trend mainly follows the crude oil direction with limited volatility [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The Middle East CP has been significantly reduced, but the spot discount has shrunk. The domestic demand for LPG has bottom - level support as the PDH operating rate continues to rise. The supply is relatively loose in July, and the refinery gas may continue to follow the decline in import costs. The LPG futures price maintains a low ratio to oil, and the current basis has risen to a relatively high level, remaining in a weak oscillation [4]
燃料油日报:高硫油市场结构延续弱势,低硫端利好同样有限-20250801
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 05:38
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [3] 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term cost of fuel oil is strongly supported by the recent strong crude oil price, but the oil market may face a looser balance sheet in the medium term, and there is still resistance to the upside of oil prices if sanctions expectations are not fulfilled [1] - The high - sulfur fuel oil market is currently weak, with sufficient supply and high inventory. Demand lacks highlights except for power plant peak - season purchases. However, the shrinkage of the East - West spread may tighten arbitrage cargo supply and support the Asia - Pacific market in the short term. Structurally favorable factors may lead to a stronger market if refinery demand recovers significantly [1] - The low - sulfur fuel oil market has limited current benefits. The decline of Singapore diesel cracking may weaken support, and component supply is expected to increase. In the medium term, abundant remaining capacity may lead to increased supply, and the market share may be gradually replaced by the shipping industry's carbon - neutral trend [2] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 0.37% at 2933 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.38% at 3676 yuan/ton [1] - The high - sulfur fuel oil market has a weak fundamental situation, with a significant decline in cracking spreads from high levels, sufficient supply, and high inventory. Refinery demand has not shown large - scale improvement, but short - term support may come from reduced arbitrage cargo supply [1] - The low - sulfur fuel oil market has limited positive factors. The decline of Singapore diesel cracking may weaken support, and component supply is expected to increase. The market outlook is not optimistic due to abundant capacity and the carbon - neutral trend [2] Strategy - High - sulfur: Maintain an oscillatory view [3] - Low - sulfur: Maintain an oscillatory view [3] - Cross - variety: Appropriate profit - taking for previous short positions in FU cracking spreads (FU - Brent or FU - SC) [3] - Cross - period: Gradual profit - taking for previous FU reverse arbitrage positions [3] - Spot - futures: No strategy [3] - Options: No strategy [3]
国投期货能源日报-20250731
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 13:00
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, with a bullish bias and limited operability [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, showing a bullish tendency but poor trading floor operability [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish inclination but weak trading floor operability [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, meaning the short-term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor trading floor operability, advisable to wait and see [1] Core Views - Geopolitical risks in the short term support oil prices, and investors can focus on the hedging value of out-of-the-money call options for crude oil [2] - The fundamentals of the high and low-sulfur fuel oil markets are weak, and the crack spreads of FU and LU are both weak [2] - The asphalt supply increase space is viewed neutrally, demand is weak but has repair expectations, and the low inventory supports prices, with the upward space limited [3] - The supply of LPG is relatively loose, the domestic market is under pressure, and the overall price runs at a low level [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices continued to rise, with Brent's September contract up 0.98% [2] - Last week, US EIA crude oil inventories increased by 769,800 barrels more than expected, but the market focus is on the recently heated up risk of sanctioned oil [2] - Geopolitical risks in the short term support oil prices, and investors can pay attention to the hedging value of out-of-the-money call options for crude oil [2] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - Crude oil continued to rise today, but the futures of the fuel oil system weakened after the midday break, and the cracks of FU and LU further declined [2] - The arrival volume in the Singapore market increased significantly in July compared with the previous month, and the bunker fueling volume in Fujairah has been weakening month-on-month since June [2] - The fundamentals of the high and low-sulfur fuel oil markets are weak, and the crack spreads of FU and LU are both weak [2] Asphalt - Crude oil continued to rise today, and among the downstream oil product futures, only asphalt rose slightly, while other varieties closed down [3] - The planned production volume in China in August decreased compared with July, and the demand recovery in the South was delayed due to typhoon and rainfall, while the rigid demand in the North was also dull [3] - The supply increase space of asphalt is currently viewed neutrally, demand is weak but has repair expectations, and the low inventory supports prices, with the upward space limited [3] LPG - The Middle East CP has been significantly reduced, increasing the pressure of oversupply on the overseas market [4] - After the decline in import costs, the chemical profit margin is generally improving, and there is still room for the PDH operating rate to rise [4] - The supply in the domestic market is relatively loose, and the overall price runs at a low level [4]
市场短期矛盾有限,关注高硫结构企稳信号
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 05:38
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [3] 2) Core Viewpoints - The short-term contradiction in the market is limited, and attention should be paid to the stabilization signal of the high-sulfur structure. The crude oil price maintains an oscillating trend, with a strengthening sign at night, but it has limited guidance on the short-term direction of fuel oil. The FU and LU markets oscillate narrowly, and face the pressure of a looser oil market balance sheet and a downward cost center in the medium term [1]. - The fundamentals of high-sulfur fuel oil have been weak recently, with continuous adjustment of the market structure, a significant decline in crack spreads from high levels, relatively abundant supply at the spot end, and high inventory levels. The supply of arbitrage cargoes may tighten, and the market is expected to get some support in the short term. Structurally favorable factors have not completely subsided in the medium term [1]. - The fundamentals of low-sulfur fuel oil have marginally loosened recently, with an increase in Brazilian tanker arrivals and the resumption of Kuwaiti exports, but the overall supply increase is limited. In the medium term, the remaining production capacity of low-sulfur fuel oil is relatively abundant, and the carbon neutrality trend in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low-sulfur fuel oil, suppressing the market outlook [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 0.9% at 2,869 yuan/ton during the day session, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 1.03% at 3,545 yuan/ton [1]. - For high-sulfur fuel oil, recent shipments from Russia and Iran have increased, demand lacks highlights except for power plant seasonal procurement, and refinery demand shows no sign of large-scale improvement. As the East-West spread of high-sulfur fuel oil shrinks to a low level, the supply of arbitrage cargoes may tighten [1]. - For low-sulfur fuel oil, Brazilian tanker arrivals have increased and Kuwaiti exports have resumed, but the overall supply increase is limited, and there is no obvious contradiction in the Asia-Pacific spot market. The remaining production capacity is abundant, and the carbon neutrality trend in shipping will suppress the market [2]. Strategy - High-sulfur: Oscillating [3] - Low-sulfur: Oscillating [3] - Cross-variety: Positions in shorting FU crack spreads (FU - Brent or FU - SC) established earlier can be appropriately liquidated for profit [3] - Cross-period: FU reverse spread positions established earlier can be gradually liquidated for profit [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3]
综合晨报:美欧达成贸易协议,马棕出口数据表现不佳-20250728
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 00:44
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff rate agreement. The EU will increase its investment in the US by $600 billion, purchase US military equipment, and buy $750 billion worth of US energy products. This will lead to a short - term decline in the US dollar index [15]. - The central bank conducted 789.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. Market sentiment is expected to ease temporarily next week, but risk appetite will be strong in Q3, and there will still be fluctuations in the bond market [3]. - The 10 - department joint issuance of the plan to promote agricultural product consumption aims to boost agricultural product consumption through various measures. The decline in industrial enterprise profits in June has narrowed, and the new kinetic energy industry represented by the equipment industry has seen rapid profit growth [17][18]. - The export data of Malaysian palm oil is poor, and the domestic oil mill operating rate is expected to increase. Steel prices have risen significantly due to the continuous increase in coking coal and coke prices and the relatively strong fundamentals of finished products, but there is a risk of overvaluation [5]. - Polysilicon is expected to correct in the short term, and it is advisable to consider short - selling lightly through options [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff rate agreement. Trump has the right to restore higher tariff levels if other countries fail to fulfill their investment commitments. The EU hopes to continue discussions on steel and aluminum tariffs with the US. The applicable tariff will be the higher of the "most - favored - nation tariff" or 15%. The short - term market risk preference will moderately recover, and the US dollar index will decline in the short term [13][15]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will decline in the short term [16]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - 10 departments jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for Promoting Agricultural Product Consumption" to promote agricultural product consumption through various measures. In June, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, and the decline has narrowed. The new kinetic energy industry represented by the equipment industry has seen rapid profit growth. The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff agreement, which may set an example for upcoming China - US tariffs. A Politburo meeting will be held this week, and attention should be paid to its statements on the economic work in the second half of the year [17][18][19]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to allocate stock indexes evenly [20]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff agreement, but there are still differences in key industry tariffs. The US durable goods orders in June decreased by 9.3% month - on - month, better than the expected - 10.7%. The core data excluding Boeing orders performed well. The US - EU tariff negotiation has accelerated, and the risk of further deterioration of the tariff level has decreased, supporting market risk preference [21][22]. - Investment advice: The trade negotiation is moving in a positive direction, and it will still fluctuate strongly in the short term, but attention should be paid to the risk of correction [22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 789.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 601.8 billion yuan. Market sentiment is expected to ease temporarily next week, and the funds are expected to become looser after the end of the month. However, risk appetite will be strong in Q3, and there will still be fluctuations in the bond market [23]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to cautiously bet on the opportunity of oversold rebound next week. Do not be bearish in the long term, but the market will be volatile in Q3, and it may be too early for allocation buyers to go long at present [24]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal price in the Linfen market is running strongly. The recent futures price increase is mainly due to macro - policies. The National Energy Administration plans to conduct a verification of coal mine production in key coal - producing provinces, but the actual impact of checking over - production may be limited. The price may return to the fundamentals. The supply of coking coal has recovered partially this week, and the coke price has increased for the third time, with some steel mills accepting the increase [25][26]. - Investment advice: The market sentiment for coking coal is still strong, but the risk is high as the price rises significantly. Pay attention to position management [27]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills in the 30th week was 2.2389 million tons, with an operating rate of 62.94%. It is expected to reach 2.3726 million tons and 66.69% in the 31st week. From July 1 - 25, the export of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 9.23% month - on - month. The production of Malaysian palm oil in July is expected to increase, and the inventory will increase significantly. China may export 100,000 - 120,000 tons of soybean oil to India [28][29]. - Investment advice: The data from Malaysia is bearish for palm oil. It is not recommended to short unilaterally. Consider buying put options or waiting for opportunities to go long at low prices. For international soybean oil, focus on US weather and bio - fuel policies. For domestic soybean oil, if exports to India increase, it will support prices [30]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The international sugar price has fluctuated greatly. The expected increase in production in Brazil and India and the rumor of India's export in the 2025/26 season have put pressure on the price. India's sugar export may be unfeasible at current international prices. The sugar mills of Guangxi Nanhua have cleared their warehouses, and the spot price in Guangxi has remained stable with a narrow - range shock. The sugarcane yield in the central - southern region of Brazil has decreased in June [31][33][34]. - Investment advice: The international sugar market is under pressure from supply. The Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to fluctuate mainly. Pay attention to the resistance level of 5900 yuan [35]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In the first half of 2025, China's cotton product exports increased under pressure. As of mid - July, the pre - sale progress of Brazilian cotton in 2025 was 65%. As of July 17, the weekly net signing of US cotton in the 25/26 season was 30,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 54%. The ICE cotton price is expected to be in a low - level shock pattern in the short term [36][37][39]. - Investment advice: The lack of news about increased import quotas in China, tight old - cotton inventory, and high operating rates in Xinjiang spinning mills will support cotton prices in the short term. However, the demand from inland spinning mills is weakening, and the increase in warehouse receipts and the expectation of increased production in the 25/26 season may limit the upward trend of cotton prices [40]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Argentina has lowered the export tariffs on soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. The operating rate of domestic oil mills has remained high. China has stopped purchasing US soybeans since the end of May, and the pre - sale of US new - crop soybeans is significantly lower than the normal level in previous years [41][42]. - Investment advice: CBOT soybeans and soybean meal are expected to fluctuate. Focus on the development of the China - US trade war. Soybean meal inventory will continue to accumulate, and the spot basis will remain weak [42]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Most coal mines in Ordos maintained normal production on July 23, and the coal price was stable with a slight increase. The implementation of the over - production policy and high summer temperatures are expected to keep the coal price strong. The power plant's inventory has decreased slightly, and the coal price is expected to return to around the long - term agreement price of 670 yuan [43][44]. - Investment advice: The coal price is expected to remain strong, and it is expected to return to around 670 yuan, the long - term agreement price [44]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The iron ore production and sales of Mount Gibson in the second quarter decreased year - on - year. Affected by coking coal and coke, the iron ore price has fluctuated strongly, but it has encountered resistance after breaking through $105. The long - term increase in the price center of coking coal and coke will suppress the upside potential of iron ore [45]. - Investment advice: Observe the follow - up of the spot market after the price pull - back. The market sentiment fluctuates greatly, so it is recommended to reduce the position [46]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The fifth blast furnace of Vietnam's Hoa Phat Group's Dung Quat Steel Complex has been put into operation, increasing the annual production capacity by 5.6 million tons. The total new - signed contract value of the top seven construction central enterprises in the first six months exceeded 5.9 trillion yuan. South Korea will impose temporary anti - dumping duties on hot - rolled steel plates imported from China and Japan. Steel prices have risen significantly, but there is a risk of overvaluation [47][49][50]. - Investment advice: Steel prices will remain strong in the short term. It is recommended to observe cautiously [51]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The consumption of corn starch sugar is average, and the operating rate has decreased. The consumption of corn and corn starch has decreased this week [52]. - Investment advice: Starch enterprises may continue to face losses, and the operating rate is expected to remain low. This is not favorable for the rice - flour price difference [53][54]. 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Corn) - In June 2025, the national industrial feed production was 27.67 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. The proportion of corn in compound feed increased by 2.5 percentage points year - on - year. The "anti - involution" policy in the breeding industry may reduce the corn demand in the new year [55]. - Investment advice: The stalemate in the spot market may continue until the new corn is on the market. The 09 contract may weaken in advance. Hold the short positions of new - crop corn and look for opportunities to add positions on rebounds [55]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has adjusted the trading limit for the LC2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures. The price of lithium carbonate has increased, and there are rumors about production cuts in some areas. The limit - trading measure is expected to stabilize the market [56][57]. - Investment advice: Before the production cuts are confirmed, there is no upward momentum for the price. Pay attention to the downstream procurement. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of holding inventory and reverse arbitrage [58]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The EU has started monitoring the trade of scrap copper and aluminum. Teck Resources has lowered the production forecast of its Chilean copper mine. Freeport's Indonesian subsidiary has started its new smelter [59][60][61]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, be cautious about the repeated macro - expectations. The copper price is expected to remain high and fluctuate. It is recommended to observe. For arbitrage, pay attention to the opportunity of domestic - foreign reverse arbitrage [62]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has adjusted the trading limit, daily limit, margin, and handling fees for industrial silicon and polysilicon futures. The spot price of polysilicon has increased slightly, but the actual transaction has not changed much. The production of polysilicon is expected to increase in July and August, with a monthly surplus of 100,000 - 200,000 tons [63][64][65]. - Investment advice: The delivery price of polysilicon sets a lower limit for the futures price. However, due to the difficulty of the spot price to keep up with the futures price increase, the short - term price is expected to correct. Consider short - selling lightly through options and look for opportunities to go long after the correction [66]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The production and operating rate of industrial silicon in Xinjiang, the Northwest, Yunnan, and Sichuan have shown different trends. The social inventory has decreased, and the factory inventory has increased. The supply is expected to increase with the resumption of production, and the supply - demand gap will narrow in August [67][68][69]. - Investment advice: After the price increase, the basis of industrial silicon has weakened rapidly. Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling at high prices or selling out - of - the - money call options [69]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Danantara is considering acquiring the GNI smelter in Indonesia. The nickel price has been strong recently but fell on Friday night. There are different statements about Indonesia's nickel export policy. The price of Philippine nickel ore has decreased, and the price of nickel iron has increased, but the steel mills' purchasing intention is not strong [70][71]. - Investment advice: The nickel price is closely related to macro - sentiment. It is recommended to use options for hedging in unilateral trading. Holders can sell for hedging at high prices [72]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - From January to June 2025, the number of electric bicycles recycled and replaced was 8.465 million each. The new national standard for electric bicycles will be implemented on September 1. The overseas macro - situation has limited fluctuations. The supply of primary lead is tight, and the production of secondary lead has increased slightly. The demand from end - users has not improved significantly, but the lead social inventory may turn around [73][74][75]. - Investment advice: In the short term, pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices and manage the position well. For arbitrage, it is recommended to observe temporarily [76]. 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The port inventory of zinc concentrate has decreased by 860,000 tons compared with last week. The 0 - 3 cash spread of LME zinc has turned negative, but the注销仓单 is still high. The zinc smelting profit may improve in August, and the supply is expected to remain high. The demand from primary processing industries is differentiated, and the social inventory has increased significantly [77][78]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, the risk is high, and it is recommended to observe. For arbitrage, pay attention to the opportunity of medium - term calendar spread positive arbitrage. It is recommended to observe in terms of domestic - foreign trading [79]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - On July 25, the closing price of the EUA main contract was 71.34 euros/ton, a 0.65% increase from the previous day and a 2.07% increase from last week. The investment funds reduced their net long positions by 100,000 tons last week. The carbon price is expected to be volatile in the short term [80]. - Investment advice: The EU carbon price will be volatile in the short term [81]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs has decreased. The Middle - East oil price has strengthened relative to Brent. The increase in the Middle - East oil export volume is limited. The strong diesel crack spread and EU sanctions on Russia support the Middle - East oil price [82][83]. - Investment advice: The oil price will remain volatile. Pay attention to the OPEC+ meeting and market risk preference [84]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - On July 25, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was slightly adjusted. The supply has increased, and the demand is average. The caustic soda futures price has increased due to the overall positive sentiment in the commodity market, but the increase is limited [85][86]. - Investment advice: The caustic soda valuation is not low, and the speculative demand is difficult to stimulate, resulting in a small increase [86]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The spot price of imported wood pulp is generally stable, with individual prices increasing slightly. The futures price has continued to rise, but the downstream paper mills' follow - up is not strong, and high - price transactions are difficult [87]. - Investment advice: Due to the "anti - involution" policy, low - valued pulp may be targeted by funds. Investors should pay attention to the risks [88]. 3.
《能源化工》日报-20250725
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 09:11
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Polyolefin Industry - The valuation shows that the marginal profit is gradually recovering, and the supply and demand of PP and PE are simultaneously contracting, with inventory accumulation. The demand side continues to be in a weak state. There is a risk of capacity withdrawal for devices with a production history of over 20 years. Strategy-wise, there is an opportunity for PP to fluctuate on the short - side, and PE can be bought within a certain range [2]. Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices rose due to the repair of market demand expectations after the alleviation of macro - tense emotions. However, the OPEC+ production increase plan and Sino - US trade uncertainties pose upward resistance. It is recommended to adopt a short - term band strategy [5]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure benzene's previous maintenance devices are gradually restarting, and its downstream price transmission is not smooth. The short - term trend of pure benzene fluctuates with the overall market sentiment. Styrene's supply - demand expectation is weak, but it is supported in the short - term by the domestic anti - involution sentiment, with limited upside [44]. Methanol Industry - Inland methanol prices fluctuate slightly. The supply side has high maintenance losses in July but there is a restart expectation. The demand side is restricted by the traditional off - season. The port side is expected to accumulate inventory from July to August. In the short - term, the cost is lifted by coal, and the 09 contract's fluctuation range moves up. It is advisable to buy the 01 contract at low prices [47]. Chlor - alkali Industry - For caustic soda, the short - term macro - disturbance is intense, and it is recommended to close previous long positions and wait and see. For PVC, the short - term trading logic is mainly dominated by macro - emotions, and it is recommended to wait and see [52]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term. PTA may fluctuate strongly in the short - term. Ethylene glycol is expected to run strongly in the short - term. Short - fiber has no obvious short - term driver. Bottle - chip supply - demand has an improvement expectation [71]. Urea Industry - The urea futures market is in a range - bound pattern. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak, resulting in a supply - exceeding - demand situation. The future price breakthrough depends on the substantial warming of the demand side [78]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Prices**: Futures and spot prices of L and PP increased on July 24 compared to July 23. For example, L2601's closing price rose from 7346 to 7436, with a 1.23% increase [2]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 4.99% to 50.3 tons, while PP enterprise inventory increased by 2.62% to 58.1 tons [2]. - **开工率**: PE device's starting rate increased by 0.97% to 79.0%, and PP device's starting rate decreased by 0.4% to 77.0% [2]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices**: On July 25, Brent, WTI, and SC prices all increased compared to July 24. For example, Brent rose from 68.51 to 69.18 dollars per barrel, with a 0.98% increase [5]. - **Trading Logic**: The rise in oil prices is due to the alleviation of macro - tense emotions and the improvement of demand expectations, but there are still supply - side uncertainties [5]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Prices**: On July 24, the prices of pure benzene and styrene - related products showed different trends. For example, the spot price of pure benzene decreased by 0.2% to 5980 yuan per ton [44]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene's Jiangsu port inventory increased by 4.3% to 17.10 tons, and styrene's Jiangsu port inventory increased by 8.8% to 15.07 tons [44]. - **开工率**: The Asian pure benzene starting rate increased by 0.7% to 77.4%, and the domestic pure benzene starting rate increased by 0.3% to 78.1% [44]. Methanol Industry - **Prices**: On July 24, methanol futures and spot prices increased compared to July 21. For example, MA2601's closing price rose from 2482 to 2550, with a 2.74% increase [47]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 3.55% to 33.983 tons, and methanol port inventory decreased by 8.15% to 72.6 tons [47]. - **开工率**: The upstream domestic enterprise starting rate decreased by 1.01% to 70.37, and the downstream external - procurement MTO device starting rate increased by 0.56% to 75.96 [47]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **Prices**: On July 24, the prices of caustic soda and PVC - related products showed different trends. For example, the price of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda remained unchanged at 2593.8 yuan per ton [50]. - **开工率**: The caustic soda industry starting rate increased by 1.3% to 86.3, and the PVC total starting rate decreased by 0.1% to 75.0 [50]. - **Inventory**: The liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory increased by 13.8% to 21.3 tons, and the PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 3.7% to 36.8 tons [52]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices**: On July 24, the prices of upstream and downstream products in the polyester industry chain changed. For example, the price of Brent crude oil (September) rose from 68.51 to 69.18 dollars per barrel, with a 1.0% increase [71]. - **开工率**: The Asian PX starting rate remained unchanged at 73.6%, and the PTA starting rate remained unchanged at 79.7% [71]. Urea Industry - **Prices**: On July 24, the prices of urea futures contracts increased compared to July 23. For example, the 01 contract's closing price rose from 1779 to 1796, with a 0.96% increase [75]. - **Inventory**: The domestic urea factory inventory decreased by 4.10% to 85.88 tons, and the domestic urea port inventory increased by 0.37% to 54.30 tons [78]. - **开工率**: The urea production factory starting rate increased by 1.26% to 83.21 [78].
燃料油早报-20250723
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 07:58
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the high - sulfur crack spread fluctuated and declined, the near - month spread decreased, and the EW continued to weaken. The 380 8 - 9 month spread weakened to $1.75, the basis weakened and then fluctuated, the FU09 internal - external spread rebounded slightly, and the domestic market had a large amount of delivery goods, maintaining a loose pattern. The Singapore 0.5 crack spread declined slightly, the month spread weakened, and the 8 - 9 month spread fluctuated around $4.5. The LU internal - external spread weakened slightly and then fluctuated, with the 09 around $16. [6][7] - This week, Singapore's on - land inventory increased significantly, the window was under delivery pressure, and the near - month contract was under pressure. Saudi Arabia's shipments increased month - on - month. Recently, fuel oil exports from Iran and Iraq remained at a high level, Egypt's net imports reached a new high. Although the high - sulfur supply and demand were in the peak season, the East - West and internal - external spreads had dropped rapidly. The external low - sulfur valuation was high, and the LU internal - external spread was at a high level. Attention should be paid to the domestic production situation. [7] - The Singapore Hi - 5 spread reached a new high this year, both 380cst and VLSFO weakened. The domestic FU internal - external spread rebounded slightly, the LU valuation was high. Attention could be paid to the short - term valuation regression opportunity of FU - LU, with the risk of continuous weakening of the external 380cst. [7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From July 16 to July 22, 2025, for Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1, the price decreased from 410.02 to 418.59, a change of - 3.62; for Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1, it decreased from 462.35 to 464.51, a change of - 5.40; and other indicators also had corresponding changes. [4] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - During the same period, for Singapore 380cst M1, the price decreased from 405.67 to 408.54, a change of - 2.62; for Singapore 180cst M1, it decreased from 417.60 to 423.78, a change of - 1.43; and other indicators also changed accordingly. [4] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From July 16 to July 22, 2025, the FOB 380cst price decreased from 400.29 to 401.08, a change of - 3.89; the FOB VLSFO price increased from 496.46 to 498.63, a change of 1.08; and other indicators also had corresponding changes. [5] Domestic FU Data - During the same period, the FU 01 price increased from 2854 to 2894, a change of 8; the FU 05 price increased from 2804 to 2845, a change of 17; and other indicators also changed accordingly. [5] Domestic LU Data - From July 16 to July 22, 2025, the LU 01 price decreased from 3546 to 3525, a change of - 25; the LU 05 price decreased from 3467 to 3470, a change of - 30; and other indicators also had corresponding changes. [6]
燃料油基本面一般,现货供应充裕
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 05:35
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The spot price of Shanghai Futures Exchange's fuel oil futures main contract closed up 0.1% at 2,924 yuan/ton, and INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures main contract closed up 0.19% at 3,602 yuan/ton. Crude oil prices maintain an oscillating trend. The unilateral prices of FU and LU are supported by the cost side, but the expectation of a looser medium - term balance sheet limits the upside space of prices [1] - The fundamentals of high - sulfur fuel oil currently lack highlights. The market structure has been continuously adjusted recently, especially the crack spread has significantly declined from its high level. The spot supply is relatively abundant, and the inventory level is high. However, the peak demand season of downstream power generation terminals provides some support to the market. Egypt's purchasing power is relatively strong, with an expected import volume of 990,000 tons in July, a month - on - month increase of 990,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 490,000 tons. But with the increase in Egypt's LNG imports, the subsequent demand growth space for fuel oil in power plants may be limited. The structural positive factors of high - sulfur fuel oil have not completely subsided. If the crack spread is fully adjusted to attract a significant recovery in refinery demand, opportunities for the market structure to strengthen again can be observed [1] - The fundamentals of low - sulfur fuel oil have recently loosened marginally. The arrival of Brazilian tanker cargoes has increased, and Kuwait's exports have also begun to resume. The spot supply in the Asia - Pacific region is relatively abundant. In the medium term, the remaining production capacity of low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively abundant, and the carbon - neutral trend in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low - sulfur fuel oil, suppressing the market outlook [1] Group 3: Strategies - For high - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [2] - For low - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [2] - Cross - variety: Positions of shorting FU crack spread (FU - Brent or FU - SC) in the early stage can be appropriately stopped for profit [2] - Cross - period: FU reverse spread positions in the early stage can be gradually stopped for profit [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]