2025年尾，全球镍市正被一场"预期与现实"的激烈博弈推向风口浪尖。一边是印尼政府挥出"减产重 拳"，计划在2026年将镍矿产量大幅削减34%至2.5亿吨，点燃了市场对供应长期紧张的想象；另一边， 是居高不下的全球库存与疲软的下游需求构成的冰冷现实。这场在配额管控与成本重构双重背景下的震 荡，究竟是全球镍产业链深刻重构的序幕，还是又一次短期情绪的躁动？ 高烧的"政策牛"与冰冷的"库存湖" 印尼的减产宣言，绝非简单的产量调控，而是一场旨在夺取产业主导权的"战略突围"。通过计划中的配 额严控、特许权使用费调整及对伴生钴金属单独计价等组合政策，印尼正试图强力扭转其作为初级资源 输出国的角色，倒逼全球产业链利润向其中下游加工环节转移。这一明确的"资源民族主义"信号，叠加 全球宏观流动性预期转向宽松，共同导演了年末镍价的脉冲式上涨，沪镍与伦镍一度领涨基本金属。然 而，炽热的政策预期迎面撞上了坚实的"库存堰塞湖"。LME镍库存持续运行于多年高位，截止2025年12 月23日伦镍库存录得254604吨较前一日增加216吨，中国主要港口库存亦显著高于年初水平。这清晰地 表明，当前的上涨并非由真实的供需紧张驱动，而是"预期交易 ...

本文摘录自《不断深化的地缘经济风险》一书，已获授权。 当"制造业回流"成为美国政客口中的高频词，当"供应链韧性"被写入多国战略文件，我们是否真的看清 了这场全球产业链重构背后的真相？ 高成本拖累、劳动力断层、技术脱钩、美元信用动摇……这一系列问题并非孤立发生，而是共同构成了 一场深刻的地缘经济变局。 制造业并未简单"回流"，而是在地缘政治的驱动下，变得"更贵、更慢、更脆弱"。 首先，劳工权益争议与劳动力市场结构断层构成了供应链区域再布局过程中的显性难题。在墨西哥等传 统外包地，根据墨西哥最低工资委员会调查，汽车制造等关键行业罢工率上升，其最低工资水平仅为美 国的四分之一。劳工的不满情绪和工会力量不断上升，严重干扰了产业链的连续性与稳定性。同时，在 主张制造业回流的经济体中，其制造业劳动力市场面临显著的结构断层，这种技能与产业需求之间的错 配，直接拖慢了制造环节的重构进度。 其次，制造业回流的高成本困境正在削弱政策激励的实际成效。尽管美国政府通过《芯片与科学法案》 试图打造本土半导体生态，但因为本地缺乏相应的供应链基础，还因规模经济效应不足和物流运输成本 激增，这种高投入与低产出之间的结构性矛盾使得制造业回流的 ...

来源：中国能源网 华龙证券近日发布有色金属行业2026年投资策略报告：2025年前11个月，黄金月均价较2024年全年均价 上涨40.75%，白银上涨33.69%，铜上涨7.25%，铝上涨7.96%。2025年前三季度，有色金属行业实现收 入2.82万亿元，同比增长9.3%；实现归母净利润1512.88亿元，同比增长41.55%。年初至今（2025年11 月底），申万有色金属行业指数（72.81%）大幅跑赢沪深300指数（18.49%）。 以下为研究报告摘要： 在地缘对抗升级、全球经济增长失速、资源民族主义抬头背景下，有色金属景气度持续提升，主要金属 品种价格持续走高。我们认为金属景气度有望维持，维持行业"推荐"评级。 铜：供需错配的预期转向现实？品位降低和激励价格压制导致矿端供给刚性，因此铜中期的供应偏紧。 出于地缘政治和供应链安全考虑的资源民族主义人为将供应链进一步撕裂、错配，加剧了供给紧张，市 场普遍预期2026年前后，精炼铜将出现供需关系拐点，随后转入紧缺。需求方面，美国2026年经济增速 预期良好，美联储当前"预防性降息"的思路为软着陆提供多一层保障。同时，市场对2026年中国铜需求 较乐观，预期将 ...

今日，镍金属成为商品市场的焦点。伦敦与上海两地期镍价格同步大幅走强，其中伦镍一度突破15200 美元关口，沪镍主力合约涨幅近3%。这轮上涨，表面是宏观情绪与板块共振驱动的价格狂欢，其背后 却映射出新能源转型浪潮下，一种关键金属所面临的复杂博弈与深层矛盾。 一、 价格现象的"表"与"里"：情绪驱动下的背离 此次镍价上涨，呈现出典型的"情绪驱动"特征。宏观层面，全球主要经济体宽松的流动性预期，为大宗 商品提供了"水位"支撑；工业金属板块的整体回暖，也为镍带来了"搭车"效应。然而，这种强势与当前 镍市场"供过于求"的普遍共识形成了鲜明背离。全球库存持续累积、下游不锈钢与新能源电池领域的需 求未现爆发式增长，基本面并不支撑价格趋势性反转。这揭示出当前镍市的核心矛盾：短期交易逻辑正 被宏观情绪和局部事件所主导，与中长期产业逻辑发生显著偏离。 镍长期被誉为"能源金属"，其需求前景与新能源车产业深度绑定。然而，现实正促使市场对这一叙事进 行冷静审视。一方面，磷酸铁锂电池技术路线的持续主导，挤压了高镍三元电池的市场空间；另一方 面，固态电池等下一代技术的演进方向仍存在变数。尽管高镍化是提升电池能量密度的明确路径，但其 进程受 ...

实物资产的时代：把握工业金属投资机会 投资评级：推荐（维持） ---有色金属行业2026年投资策略报告 华龙证券研究所 有色金属行业 分析师：景丹阳 SAC执业证书编号：S0230523080001 邮箱：jingdy@hlzq.com 2025年12月22日 证券研究报告 请认真阅读文后免责条款 2025.1.2-2025.11.28市场走势 相关报告 相对沪深300表现（2025.11.28) （单位：%） 表现 1M 3M 12M 有色金属行业 -2.6 15.3 60.3 -7% 3% 13% 23% 33% 43% 53% 63% 73% 83% 2025-01 2025-02 2025-03 2025-04 2025-05 2025-06 2025-07 2025-08 2025-09 2025-10 2025-11 有色金属(申万) 沪深300 《有色金属行业2025年三季报综述：宏观宽松预期叠加不确定性增强，有色行 业整体表现亮眼》2025.11.20 请认真阅读文后免责条款 2 沪深300 -2.5 0.7 14.7 报告摘要 请认真阅读文后免责条款 3 | | | | 股票代码 | 股票简 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 美联储官员鹰派表态降息，中国国常会部署 稳经济工作 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-12-22 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美联储鹰派暗示不会降息 哈马克力主维持高利率更长时间 美联储鹰派官员表态不会降息，利率维持高位更长时间，表明 对于通胀担忧继续存在，美元短期震荡。 宏观策略（股指期货） 国常会要求加快部署中央经济工作会议安排 综 近期宏观空窗期，A 股走势波澜不惊，短暂的回调之势被国家队 等稳市资金阻断，市场再度震荡上行。展望后市，跨年行情或 将维持高位窄幅震荡的态势。 有色金属（铜） 1-10 月全球精炼铜市场供应过剩 12.2 万吨 合 宏观策略（国债期货） 晨 央行开展了 562 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 报 超长端品种继续大幅下跌的概率在下降，市场有望温和修复。 农产品（棉花） 美棉出口周报（11.20-11.27）：签约下滑 我国 11 月棉花棉纱进口环比同比双增，其中 11 月棉纱进口同比 增 25%至 15 万吨。配额短缺限制棉花进口，但进口纱竞争优势 增强，吸引部分企业加大采购。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 247 家钢厂高炉铁水日均产量 22 ...

Group 1 - The report anticipates that in 2026, domestic macro policies will focus on improving quality and efficiency, emphasizing economic transformation, new consumption drivers, and effective investment [3][21] - Despite the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle, multiple constraints on policy conditions may lead to volatility due to "expectation gaps" [3][21] - The differentiation in global monetary policy and structural growth disparities in industries will continue to manifest [3][4] Group 2 - The structural differentiation in economic growth will lead to price differentiation in commodities, with strategic and scarce commodities likely to have price-raising potential [4] - Commodities closely linked to strong growth industries may experience volatility due to supply-side vulnerabilities [4] - Industries and commodities that do not benefit from economic transformation may face further value erosion [4] Group 3 - Long-term narratives such as productivity improvements driven by new technologies, industrial transfers, and the new energy wave remain valid [5] - Strategic competition awareness among major economies and increased trade barriers are key drivers of commodity demand, extending into every corner of the supply chain [5] - Key trading themes include growth in energy storage demand, investment in AI-driven industries, resource nationalism, and supply chain risks [5] Group 4 - In 2025, commodities experienced "two resonances and two differentiations," with notable performance in precious metals and non-ferrous metals during certain periods [6][10] - The first differentiation occurred from post-Spring Festival to the end of March, with weak performance in black metals and oil prices, while non-ferrous metals remained strong [6] - The second resonance was driven by external policy shocks, leading to a collective weakening of commodities, except for precious metals [8][9] Group 5 - The report highlights the importance of understanding the differences in value logic among various commodities to construct a foundation for understanding structural market changes [8][9] - The macro events have repeatedly reversed the differentiation based on different industrial fundamentals, creating resonance in the market [9] - The performance of precious metals has been notably strong, supported by economic expectations and safe-haven attributes [10][11] Group 6 - The supply-side pressure on domestic commodities remains significant, with limited effective contraction in supply leading to persistent weakness in certain commodities [12][16] - The report notes that stable supply in certain industries may not benefit from economic transformation, leading to further price declines [12][16] - The competition between old and new energy sources is intensifying, with both facing price pressures and potential oversupply [17][19] Group 7 - Geopolitical risks and domestic policies are influencing commodity strategies, with ongoing tensions in regions like Ukraine and the Middle East affecting market dynamics [19][20] - The report emphasizes the need to monitor the impact of geopolitical risks on commodity strategies [19][20] - The global economic landscape is shifting, with a focus on internal economic growth rather than external trade confrontations [20][21] Group 8 - The report outlines a strategic framework for commodity allocation in 2026, emphasizing the importance of stabilizing industrial product prices through high-quality development policies [24][25] - The adjustment of production capacity and the elimination of backward capacity are highlighted as measures to stabilize prices [25][26] - The report anticipates that consumer support policies will continue, focusing on new consumption and service sectors [26][28]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impressive performance of certain funds in the current technology-driven market, highlighting the significant returns achieved by select fund managers who have adapted to changing market conditions and capitalized on emerging trends such as AI and resource sectors [2][3]. Group 1: Fund Performance - Several funds have consistently outperformed the market since 2021, with annual returns exceeding 30% and equity ratios above 50% [4]. - Notable funds include: - Jin Yuan Shun An Yuan Qi Flexible Allocation Mixed Fund managed by Miao Weibin, with a total return of 577.17% since inception [5]. - Huashang Yuanheng Mixed A managed by Hu Zhongyuan, achieving a total return of 327.30% [5]. - Huashang Runfeng Mixed A also managed by Hu Zhongyuan, with a total return of 355.76% [5]. - Quantitative strategies have emerged as a standout approach this year, with managers like Wang Ping and Ma Fang achieving over 30% returns [6]. Group 2: Manager Insights - Hu Zhongyuan has successfully transitioned from a bond-focused strategy to a more aggressive equity approach, significantly increasing equity allocations in his funds [12][19]. - His strategy includes maintaining a balanced risk profile by diversifying across low-correlation sectors and adjusting positions based on market conditions [24][28]. - Blue Xiaokang has focused on precious metals and cyclical assets, achieving a total return of 171.48% since taking over the Zhongou Dividend Preferred Fund [41][43]. - His investment thesis is based on macroeconomic trends, particularly the long-term devaluation of the dollar and the demand for upstream assets [44][48]. Group 3: Sector Focus - Ding Jingfei has specialized in resource sectors, achieving a total return of 245.1% with the Huabao Resource Preferred Fund, leveraging the strong beta characteristics of the resource industry [62][63]. - His investment strategy involves analyzing supply-demand dynamics and identifying high-elasticity resource stocks [66][72]. - Ye Yong has been recognized for his expertise in cyclical sectors, achieving a total return of 169.81% with the Wanjia Dual Engine Fund, while also exploring opportunities in technology and manufacturing [79][85]. Group 4: Market Trends - The article emphasizes the importance of adapting to market cycles, with managers adjusting their strategies based on macroeconomic indicators and sector performance [88][90]. - The concept of "resource nationalism" is discussed, highlighting its impact on global supply-demand dynamics and resource pricing [91][94].

来源：自然资源部 据矿业周刊（Mining Weekly）报道，惠誉方案（Fitch Solutions）旗下的基准矿物情报公司（BMI）对 明年大多数金属前景谨慎乐观，预计多数矿物和金属价格将小幅上涨，主要原因是关税不确定性减少， 净零排放转型相关的行业需求强劲以及供应紧张。 BMI在《2026年采矿和金属行业关注点：全球经济趋稳推高收益》（Mining and Metals Key Themes For 2026: Global Economic Stability to Drive GAIns）报告中预测，明年金价将继续上涨，但后期由于货币宽 松政策转向，特别是美联储最终会停止降息，金价上涨势头将减弱。 这将抑制金价继续上涨。 BMI认为，不可预见的供应中断、范围高于预期的贸易限制以及强于预期的刺激措施仍是其预测上调的 主要风险。 BMI称，"我们预测2026年大多数矿物和金属均价将高于2025年，全球经济将随着贸易摩擦减少而趋于 稳定。" "关税不确定性在2025年8月份达到顶峰，虽然未来几个季度美国和其他经济体可能再度发生贸易摩擦， 但我们的国家风险团队预计在2026年关税不确定性将继续减少"。 B ...

Group 1 - Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves in the world, totaling 303 billion barrels, despite a current production rate of only 1 million barrels per day [5][6] - The heavy crude oil from Venezuela is particularly suited for U.S. Gulf Coast refineries, making it a critical supplier for the U.S. market [7] - The U.S. has been using drug trafficking as a pretext for military actions against Venezuela, despite reports indicating that Venezuela is not a major source of U.S. drug imports [9][11] Group 2 - Venezuela has responded to U.S. threats with military exercises and has sought support from OPEC and other nations to counter U.S. actions [13][17] - A coalition of over 20 countries has publicly condemned the U.S. for violating Venezuela's sovereignty, indicating a growing international support for Venezuela [19][21] - The ongoing conflict has severely impacted Venezuela's economy, with a significant reduction in international flights and a drastic decline in tourism and healthcare supplies [29][32] Group 3 - The situation in Venezuela is affecting the global energy market, with potential disruptions to oil supply that could lead to increased prices and inflation in the U.S. and Europe [34][36] - The conflict is part of a broader trend of resource nationalism in Latin America, where countries are increasingly asserting control over their natural resources [38][40] - Venezuela's move towards non-dollar oil transactions is challenging the dominance of the "petrodollar" system, indicating a shift in global economic power dynamics [42]