金价在周四的走势堪称教科书级的冲高回落。受CPI数据低于预期的影响，美联储1月降息概率略升， 美债收益率跌至一周低位，两年期美债收益率报3.462%，10年期降至4.12%。这一环境为金价注入动 能，推动其触及4374美元/盎司，接近10月20日创下的历史高点。然而，好景不长，随着市场消化数 据，黄金的通胀对冲魅力迅速褪色。通胀下降速度快于预期，降低了购买"通胀保险"的吸引力。黄金多 年来大幅上涨的部分原因，正是高通胀侵蚀法定货币价值，如今通胀放缓让这一逻辑动摇。此外，技术 面压力不容忽视。金价逼近4381美元的历史高点附近，多头选择获利了结，导致涨幅迅速蒸发。美元兑 一篮子货币下跌，本应利好黄金，但华尔街股市上涨分散了资金流向这些年来黄金的强势源于通胀侵 蚀，但当前数据让其疲软合情合理。同时，政府停摆引发的就业数据波动加剧了不确定性。综上所述， 这次金价冲高回落是美国通胀数据与市场情绪博弈的结果。尽管短期疲软，黄金的长期趋势仍积极向 上，专家目标指向更高峰值。投资者应关注美联储动向、数据修正和政治提名，避免盲目追高。在全球 不确定性中，黄金依旧是可靠的避险港湾，但需结合白银钯金动态和宏观指标，制定灵活策略。 ...

12月18日，通胀数据低于预期，黄金作为通胀对冲工具的吸引力下降，多头获利了结，金价高位回调， 截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货跌0.23%报4363.9美元/盎司，截至亚市收盘，黄金ETF华夏涨（518850） 0.06%，黄金股ETF（159562）涨0.88%。 分析师Fawad Razaqzada指出，通胀下降速度快于预期，降低了购买"通胀保险"的吸引力。黄金多年来 大幅上涨的部分原因，正是高通胀侵蚀法定货币价值，如今通胀放缓让这一逻辑动摇。但总体而言，这 次回落并非趋势反转，而是市场在消化多重信号后的短期调整。 消息面上，美国劳工统计局周四早些时候发布的数据显示，美国核心通胀同比增速回落至2021年初以来 的最低水平。截至11月，美国整体消费者物价指数（CPI）同比上涨2.7%，较截至9月的3%涨幅有所收 窄。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The expectation for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the coming year has increased, contributing to a bullish outlook for gold prices [1][4]. Market Performance - On December 18, gold opened at $4,337.99 per ounce, fluctuated throughout the day, reaching a low of $4,308.66 and a high of $4,374.14, ultimately closing at $4,332.42, down $5.57 or 0.13% [3]. - The price movements were influenced by a stronger US dollar and the release of lower-than-expected US CPI data, which raised expectations for interest rate cuts [3][4]. Future Outlook - For December 19, gold is expected to continue weakly due to recent adjustment pressures and a recovering dollar index, but it remains in an upward trend [4]. - Key support levels to watch are around $4,320 and $4,300, while resistance levels are at $4,360 and $4,380 [11]. Long-term Projections - Over the next year, gold prices are projected to trend upwards, with a target of $5,000, supported by factors such as a softening job market and ongoing geopolitical tensions [6][8]. - The technical analysis indicates that while gold has faced resistance near historical highs, the likelihood of breaking through these levels remains strong [10].

基本面： 周四（12月18日）亚市午盘，现货白银价格今日亚盘至每盎司66.80美元以上，突破历史纪录，成为2025年大宗商品中最强劲的反弹之一，持续变化的市场 动态正推动白银表现远超历史常态。本轮上涨受到供需两端的共同支撑：全球白银市场已连续第五年出现结构性短缺，开采产出受限，而来自可再生能源、 电子产品等工业领域的需求持续扩大；同时，对全球货币政策宽松和实际收益率走低的预期，降低了持有无息资产的机会成本，吸引了寻求资产多元化和通 胀对冲的机构投资者，形成了工业需求与投资需求罕见的共振。 白银已达到其长期目标的最低门槛，只要支撑保持，涨势仍有空间继续上涨，"我理想的目标大约是75到80美元。"白银是否能达到该区间，很大程度上取决 于年底市场的表现。向43至47美元区间的可控回调，可能为最终爆发反弹提供技术结构。在这一背景下，白银的表现尤为抢眼，现货白银上涨近4%至每盎 司66.22美元，盘中创下66.87美元历史新高。分析师指出，白银正在引领黄金上涨，一些资金从黄金轮动至白银、铂金和钯金，短期内白银目标位可能指向 70美元/盎司。这反映了贵金属市场的整体强势，今年迄今白银涨幅已达129%，远超黄金的65%。 ...

格隆汇12月17日｜财经网站分析师Eamonn Sheridan表示，国际现货白银价格飙升至历史新高，不断变化的市场动态正推动这种工业金属的表现远远超出历 史常态。在今天早盘交易中，现货白银涨至每盎司65美元以上的，突破此前纪录高位，创2025年大宗商品中最强劲的反弹之一。持续的供应短缺，以及行业 和投资者的强劲需求，罕见地结合在一起，支撑了这轮上涨。全球调查显示，白银市场连续第五年出现结构性短缺，原因是开采产出仍然受限，而可再生能 源、电子产品和其他工业部门的消费继续扩大。宏观因素也有影响。对宽松货币政策和实际收益率持续压缩的预期降低了持有贵金属等非收益资产的机会成 本，吸引了寻求多元化和通胀对冲的机构投资组合的兴趣。 | 65.177 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 63.838 | | | | | | | | | | 62.569 | | | | | | | | | | 61.301 | | | | | | | | | | 60.032 | | | | | | | | | | 58.7 ...

持续的供应短缺，以及行业和投资者的强劲需求，罕见地结合在一起，支撑了这轮上涨。全球调查显 示，白银市场连续第五年出现结构性短缺，原因是开采产出仍然受限，而可再生能源、电子产品和其他 工业部门的消费继续扩大。宏观因素也有影响。对宽松货币政策和实际收益率持续压缩的预期降低了持 有贵金属等非收益资产的机会成本，吸引了寻求多元化和通胀对冲的机构投资组合的兴趣。 美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：栎树 来源：金十数据 财经网站分析师Eamonn Sheridan表示，国际现货白银价格飙升至历史新高，不断变化的市场动态正推 动这种工业金属的表现远远超出历史常态。在今天早盘交易中，现货白银涨至每盎司65美元以上的，突 破此前纪录高位，创2025年大宗商品中最强劲的反弹之一。 ...

Can this rally be sustained. Well, I think you have to kind of stand back and look at the bigger picture. You know, the rally that we saw, for instance, in the late seventies and early eighties was something that was, you know, remarkable at the time.But if you look at today's rally and comparison, you know, it's still barely a scratch on that. I'm not obviously saying that necessarily it's going to go to the same extremes. We're already ahead of it in nominal terms.But in terms of when it's a regime shift, ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged to historical highs, surpassing $58 per ounce, with a notable increase of over 100% in recent days, outpacing gold's approximately 60% rise this year [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent spike in silver prices is attributed to a combination of industrial demand and speculative trading, with significant investments betting on further price increases [6][7]. - As of December 1, the total funds in silver futures exceeded 50 billion yuan, indicating strong market interest and positioning [2]. Group 2: Industrial Demand - Approximately 60% of silver's usage is in industrial applications, including electronics, renewable energy, and healthcare, with a notable increase in demand driven by the green energy revolution and advancements in technology [3][4]. - The automotive electrification process, AI industry expansion, and surging photovoltaic demand are identified as key structural factors driving industrial silver demand [4]. Group 3: Supply Constraints - The World Silver Survey indicates a projected supply deficit of 95 million ounces by 2025, with a continuous decline in global silver mine production over the past decade [5]. - India's robust silver consumption, primarily for jewelry and decorative items, further exacerbates supply constraints, as the country relies heavily on imports for 80% of its silver needs [5]. Group 4: Price Projections and Market Sentiment - Analysts predict that silver prices may continue to rise, with some forecasts suggesting prices could reach $60 per ounce by 2026, and even potentially exceed $100 per ounce [7]. - The current market environment, characterized by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and geopolitical uncertainties, has heightened the appeal of silver as a safe-haven asset [6][7]. Group 5: Broker Insights - Recent reports from brokers highlight that silver's dual nature as both a financial and industrial metal positions it favorably in the current market, with expectations of continued price strength amid declining inventories [8][9]. - The current silver price dynamics suggest a potential upward trajectory, with a target of $63 per ounce, while cautioning against blind buying and recommending waiting for pullback opportunities [8].

Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market is supported by weak economic data and geopolitical risks, with gold and silver showing strong upward trends [1][2][3][4][5] Group 1: Market Analysis - Citic Futures indicates that gold has a high safety margin for long positions, while silver shows greater elasticity under squeezed trading conditions [1] - Guoxin Futures highlights that the recent ISM manufacturing PMI data from the U.S. has raised concerns about economic slowdown and monetary policy easing, while geopolitical uncertainties have increased risk aversion [2] - Guoyuan Futures notes a divergence in U.S. economic momentum, with manufacturing facing pressures from weak new orders and record inventory backlogs, while the Fed's dovish signals support a long-term bullish outlook for precious metals [3] Group 2: Price Trends and Predictions - Zaye Capital Markets reports that gold prices have stabilized around $4,238 per ounce, driven by macroeconomic factors and geopolitical developments, with expectations of continued upward momentum [4] - Axis Securities emphasizes that factors such as central bank gold purchases, escalating global risks, and hints of U.S. rate cuts could sustain gold's upward trend into 2026, with potential for record highs if current trends continue [5]

Core Viewpoint - The commodity ETF market has experienced significant growth in both scale and performance, indicating its transition from a niche option to a core strategic asset in asset allocation [3][4]. Group 1: Growth in Scale and Performance - The total scale of commodity ETFs has increased by over 200% since the beginning of the year, with a total net inflow of 966.2 billion yuan, bringing the total scale to 2,267 billion yuan [5][7]. - Gold ETFs have emerged as the main driver of this growth, with an average scale increase of 4.8 times this year, significantly outperforming traditional equity and bond assets [7][9]. Group 2: Factors Driving Growth - The explosive growth of commodity ETFs is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic conditions, market structure, and investor awareness, with gold ETFs particularly benefiting from their inflation-hedging and asset preservation functions [9][10]. - The price of gold has surged, reaching a peak of over 4,100 USD per ounce, which has been a key factor in the strong performance of gold ETFs, with returns close to 50% this year [9][21]. Group 3: Investment Value Analysis - Gold ETFs dominate the commodity ETF market, accounting for over 95% of the total scale, making it essential to analyze future gold price trends for assessing the investment value of commodity ETFs [17][18]. - The anticipated easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve is expected to support gold prices, as historical trends show that a rate-cutting cycle typically leads to a weaker dollar and stronger gold prices [18][19]. Group 4: Selection and Allocation Strategies - For investors focused on asset preservation and risk hedging, gold ETFs are the preferred choice, while those looking to capitalize on economic cycles may consider allocating to industrial metal or energy ETFs [24][25]. - A diversified allocation strategy is suggested, with varying proportions of gold ETFs, industrial metal ETFs, and energy ETFs based on the investor's risk tolerance and market outlook [25]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The future of the commodity ETF market appears promising, with ongoing product innovation expected to solidify commodity ETFs as a standard allocation in investment portfolios, especially in times of global uncertainty [26].