原油最新行情趋势分析： 原油消息面解析：周二国际原油价格小幅走高，因美国与亚洲大国同意延长关税暂停90天，市场担忧贸易担忧情绪的情绪明显缓解。布伦特原油期货平盘， 报每桶66.65美元；美国西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）期货小幅震荡，至每桶63.89美元。美国方面表示，此次延长关税暂停旨在避免年末假期消费季受到冲 击，同时也为双方进一步谈判提供时间。市场普遍认为，这一举措有望促成协议达成，避免两国经济增长受压，从而支撑全球原油需求。从目前形势看，关 税暂停和俄乌和谈预期同时为油市带来短期利好，但实际效果取决于谈判成果以及美联储政策走向。一旦谈判破裂或通胀数据高于预期，油价可能重新承 压。因此，需密切关注政治与经济信号的同步变化。 原油技术面分析：原油从日线图级别看，K线连续七个交易日收阴线，油价跌破原震荡区间下沿，中期主观趋势向下。均线系统尚未形成空头排列，中期客 观趋势处于转换期。从动能看，MACD指标在逐步下穿零轴位置，空头动能逐步转强。预计原油中期走势将转入下行。原油短线(1H)走势低位震荡向下，油 价在低位反复穿越均线系统，短线客观趋势呈震荡节奏。波动区间在62.80-64.60之间。早盘油价在区间下沿 ...

在上周引起市场剧烈波动后，美国总统特朗普周一宣布，不会对进口金条加征关税。当天国际金价震荡走低超2%，创近三个月来最大跌幅。与此同时，对 黄金的避险需求因俄乌停火前景而减弱，投资者也在密切关注事关9月美联储降息的最新美国通胀报告及依然不明朗的全球贸易形势进展。 金融市场最大的魅力就是不确定性，没有人能够准确知道下一步将出现什么样的行情；所有的预测都是概率，在走出来之前都是盲人摸象，只是每个人的成 功率不同罢了。黄金最近的走势很好的证明了这一点，我们一直强调是走大震荡，截止目前为止，黄金确实震荡了几个月了；但是，震荡的节奏，说实话确 实难以精准把握；我们也只是看对了一部分行情，能够把看对的行情拿到利润，看错的行情风险控制好亏损降到最低，就是成功的交易者。 亚洲时段，现货黄金遭遇重挫后小幅回升，周一美国总统特朗普表示，将不会对进口黄金征收关税，这一表态令金价走势显著承压，黄金价格重挫1.6%， 盘中最低触及3341.19美元/盎司，创逾一周新低，投资者等待本周将公布的通胀数据，以获得更多和美联储利率前景相关的线索 随着美俄会晤的临近，市场也是表现的更加谨慎，原油前期杀跌下破之后目前维持震荡整理格局，原油反弹64. ...

黄金多空双收，原油反弹继续空！ 在关税风波逐步落地之后，市场的关注重心也是再度转移到了后续美联储货币政策之上，今晚上的CPI通胀数据也是备受关 注，通胀数据一直都是美联储衡量降息的重要依据，同时特朗普辟谣黄金进口关税，本周将与普京的会晤也预示着俄乌战争 可能接近尾声，导致近期避险情绪是有所消退，黄金也是从高位如期走出回落，上个交易日黄金早间开盘从3405附近一路回 落，早盘迅速跌破3380这个周五多次回踩未破的低点支撑之后惯性杀跌，早盘第一波回踩3367附近反抽3380附近确认压力之 后欧美盘二次回落，美盘前回踩3344附近之后反弹到了3362附近晚间再度回落触及3341附近再度企稳反抽，目前来看这个走 势基本符合我们昨天跟大家分享的走势，早盘3378附近直接空，关注3340/45的支撑，然后在3345/6做多也是兑现到了3360上 方目标位，日内继续关注一下3340/3335这个短期支撑情况，操作上反弹继续先空， 但是不过分追空，关注一下晚间CPI数据 的指引情况。 8/12黄金原油参考思路 黄金回踩3336附近多，防守3329，目标看3355附近，反抽初见3360附近空，防守3368，看3342/3335 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: August 12, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The bond market is under short - term pressure from factors such as the resilience of exports and the economic fundamentals, the warming of commodities, and the rise in market risk appetite. However, the bull - market foundation remains unchanged in the long run. In the short term, the bond market may fall into a shock due to the intertwined influence of multiple factors [11][12]. - The inflation pressure on the bond market in the short term is limited. Although the inflation data has improved, whether the industrial product prices can continue to rise needs to be observed based on the actual implementation of the capacity - reduction policy [11]. - The capital market is expected to remain loose in August due to factors such as the decrease in government bond issuance, fiscal investment, and the support of the central bank [12]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: The stock market's strength suppressed the bond market, causing treasury bond futures to open lower and close lower across the board. The yields of major term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market all increased, with the long - end increasing by 2 - 3bp. The central bank carried out a net withdrawal of funds, but the inter - bank funds remained loose [8][9][10]. - **Conclusion**: The inflation pressure on the bond market in the short term is limited. The long - term bull - market foundation remains unchanged, but the short - term bond market may fall into a shock. This week, attention should be paid to the issuance of treasury bonds after the implementation of the new VAT regulations, economic data, and the actual implementation of the exemption and extension on August 12 [11][12]. 2. Industry News - **Inflation Data**: In July, the CPI increased by 0.4% month - on - month, and the core CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year for three consecutive months. The PPI's month - on - month decline narrowed, and the year - on - year decline remained the same as the previous month [13]. - **Real Estate Market**: From January to July, the land acquisition amount of top 100 enterprises and the land transfer fees in 300 cities increased year - on - year, indicating a recovery in corporate investment confidence. Beijing further optimized the housing purchase restriction policy and increased the support of housing provident funds [14]. 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report provides data on the trading of treasury bond futures on August 11, including settlement prices, opening prices, closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of various contracts [6]. - **Money Market**: The central bank carried out a net withdrawal of 4328 billion yuan. The inter - bank capital sentiment index loosened, short - term capital interest rates fluctuated within a narrow range, and medium - and long - term funds were stable [10]. - **Derivatives Market**: The report shows the curves of Shibor3M interest rate swaps and FR007 interest rate swaps [33].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in U.S. stock indices, the significant drop in gold prices, and the extension of tariff suspension on China by the Trump administration, highlighting the market's anticipation of upcoming inflation data [2][24]. Group 1: Stock Market Performance - On August 11, the three major U.S. stock indices opened the week with declines, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 200.52 points, or 0.45%, closing at 43975.09 points [4][5]. - The Nasdaq Composite dropped by 64.62 points, or 0.30%, to close at 21385.40 points, while the S&P 500 fell by 16.00 points, or 0.25%, ending at 6373.45 points [4][5]. - A record proportion of fund managers, approximately 91%, believe that U.S. stocks are currently "too expensive," marking the highest level since 2001 [8]. Group 2: Inflation Data and Economic Indicators - The market is awaiting the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday, which are expected to significantly influence interest rate expectations [9]. - Economists predict that the July CPI will rise by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year, with the core CPI expected to increase by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, reflecting a rise from June levels [9]. Group 3: Gold Market Reaction - Gold prices experienced a sharp decline, with spot gold dropping by 1.6% to a low of $3341.25 per ounce, marking a new low in over a week, while December futures fell by 2.5% to settle at $3404.70 per ounce [21][24]. - The decline in gold prices is attributed to multiple negative factors, including Trump's tariff exemption statement on gold, the extension of the U.S.-China trade truce, potential progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks, and market anxiety over upcoming U.S. inflation data [24]. Group 4: Semiconductor Industry Developments - Nvidia and AMD have reached an agreement with the Trump administration to pay 15% of their revenue from chips sold to China to the U.S. government in exchange for export licenses [10][13]. - This agreement highlights the ongoing regulatory environment affecting semiconductor companies and their international operations [10][13].

周一，美国股市在开盘时表现平稳，投资者们正密切关注即将于本周发布的一系列经济数据，这些数据或 将为美联储未来降息的节奏提供重要线索。目前，道琼斯工业平均指数、纳斯达克综合指数以及标准普尔 500指数均轻微上扬，涨幅约为0.1%，而CBOE波动率指数则维持在略低于16的相对低位，显示出市场情绪 相对平稳。 值得注意的是，周二将成为本周数据发布的关键节点，其中最为引人瞩目的莫过于7月的消费者物价指数 （CPI）。鉴于近期劳动力市场出现降温迹象，此次CPI数据的发布将为市场提供一个观察关税政策对通胀 水平影响的重要窗口。分析人士指出，通胀数据的表现将对美联储在9月份的货币政策决策中是否继续降 息起到至关重要的作用。 多位经济学家及市场分析人士强调，本周即将揭晓的一系列数据不仅将揭示美国经济的最新动向，更将直 接影响投资者对未来经济走势的预期。特别是在当前全球经济环境充满不确定性的背景下，美联储的货币 政策走向成为了市场关注的焦点。因此，投资者们正屏息以待，希望通过即将发布的数据捕捉到更多关于 未来经济走向的线索。 值得注意的是，尽管当前市场情绪相对平稳，但投资者们仍需保持警惕。毕竟，经济数据的变化往往具有 不确定性 ...

Group 1 - The international spot gold price declined on August 11, 2025, primarily due to weakened expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, a stronger dollar, and a rebound in global risk appetite [1] Group 2 - The adjustment in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut schedule for 2025 has led to a stronger dollar index, reducing the attractiveness of gold as a non-yielding asset [2] - If core inflation in the U.S. remains sticky, a prolonged high interest rate environment may continue to suppress gold prices [2] Group 3 - A rebound in global risk appetite, driven by strong performance in equity markets (such as U.S. and A-shares) or easing geopolitical tensions, may lead to a shift of funds from gold to risk assets [3]

财联社硅谷NEWS . 直击科技前沿，尽在硅谷NEWS，由上海报业集团主管主办、财联社、科创板日报联合出品。 比特币价格正在冲击在7月中旬创下的历史高点。据分析，这与特朗普允许美国养老计划投资加密货币，以及传出金条可能被美国征收关税 消息等一系列因素相关。 以下文章来源于财联社硅谷NEWS ，作者马兰 链上期权平台Dervie研究主管Sean Dawson则表示，这轮加密货币的牛市仍有充足的动力。根据波动性数据，预计比特币年底前将达到15 万美元。 但也有投资者采取了相对防御性的策略，以防止出现高于预期的通胀数据。 Dawson认为，市场对通胀数据出现意外的担忧有所加剧，可能会引发小规模恐慌，并导致急剧下滑。 截至发稿，比特币24小时内涨幅高达3.33%，价格突破121000美元。 第二大代币以太币则涨至4350美元，创下2021年12月以来的新 高，而7月以太币价格已经暴涨了78%。 加密货币的上涨源于大型投资者对加密货币日益增长的兴趣。Coingecko汇编的数据显示，数字资产财务公司迄今已积累了价值1130亿美 元的比特币储备。另据strategicethreserve.xyz数据，以太币相关的投资工具 ...

Group 1: Silver Futures Market - The total silver futures warehouse receipts reported by the Shanghai Futures Exchange on August 11 amounted to 1,151,962 kilograms, with a decrease of 6,425 kilograms compared to the previous day [1][4] - The main silver futures contract opened at 9,260 yuan per kilogram, reached a high of 9,293 yuan, a low of 9,192 yuan, and closed at 9,210 yuan, reflecting a decline of 0.72% [1] Group 2: U.S. Labor Market and Economic Indicators - Following the Federal Reserve's July meeting, the labor market has shown significant changes, with July non-farm employment increasing by only 73,000, well below the market expectation of 104,000 [2] - The downward revision of the previous two months' employment data by a total of 258,000 marks the largest adjustment since 1979, leading to a three-month moving average employment increase of only 35,000 [2] - The unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2%, which remains low and aligns with expectations [2] - The upcoming Jackson Hole conference (August 21-23) is anticipated to be a critical window for Fed Chair Powell to adjust forward guidance based on the labor market data [2] Group 3: U.S. Treasury Yield Movements - Following the non-farm data release, the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields fell by over 20 basis points and 10 basis points, respectively, indicating a market re-evaluation of policy expectations after the recent hawkish FOMC meeting [3] - The ability of U.S. Treasury yields, particularly the 10-year yield, to maintain an upward trend will depend on the upcoming CPI data on August 12 [3]

Report Title - "Yangtze River Futures Precious Metals Weekly Report: Rising Expectations of Interest Rate Cuts Provide Support for Prices" [1] Report Date - August 11, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The continuous weakening of US economic data has led to an increase in expectations of an interest rate cut in September, causing precious metal prices to fluctuate strongly. The implementation of the new round of US tariffs, the poor performance of July's non - farm payroll data, and the downward revision of May and June data have reversed the market's expectations of employment market resilience. Although the Fed's interest rate - setting meeting was hawkish, market concerns about the US fiscal situation and geopolitical outlook are expected to support precious metal prices. Attention should be paid to the US July CPI inflation data released on Tuesday [4][7][8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Gold: US economic data weakened continuously, and the expectation of an interest rate cut in September increased. As of last Friday, the price of US gold was reported at $3458 per ounce, up 1.2% for the week. The upper resistance level is $3510, and the lower support level is $3390 [4] - Silver: US economic data weakened continuously, the expectation of an interest rate cut in September increased, and silver inventories decreased during the week. As of last Friday, the price of US silver rebounded, with a weekly increase of 3.8%, reported at $38.51 per ounce. The lower support level is $37, and the upper resistance level is $39.7 [7] 2. Weekly View - New US tariffs took effect, July's non - farm payroll data was far below expectations, and data for May and June were significantly revised downwards, reversing the market's expectations of employment market resilience and increasing the market's expectation of an interest rate cut in September. The results of trade negotiations between the US and multiple countries were announced, and the tariff increase was generally lower than market expectations, increasing the market's optimistic expectation of a trade agreement between the US and Europe. Although the market expects an interest rate cut in September, Powell said at the interest - rate meeting that the conditions for a rate cut had not been met, and the meeting result was hawkish. Trump nominated a Fed governor. With the US tariff policy basically in place, the market is concerned about the US fiscal situation and geopolitical prospects, and precious metal prices are expected to be supported. Attention should be paid to the US July CPI inflation data [8] 3. Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - Not summarized in text form, mainly presented in charts including the US dollar index, real interest rates, currency exchange rates, US Treasury yields, inflation expectations, Fed balance sheet size, and WTI crude oil futures prices [12][14][16] 4. Important Economic Data of the Week - US July ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1, expected to be 51.5, and the previous value was 50.8 - The revised monthly rate of US durable goods orders in June was - 9.4% [19] 5. Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week rose to the highest level in a month. As of the week ending August 2, the number of initial jobless claims increased by 7000 to 226,000, higher than the economist's forecast of 221,000. The number of continued jobless claims rose to 1.974 million, the highest since November 2021 - Trump said he would nominate White House Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Milan to temporarily serve as a Fed governor to fill the vacancy left by Kugler's unexpected resignation [21] 6. Inventory - Gold: COMEX inventory decreased by 4062.44 kg to 1,200,128.17 kg, and SHFE inventory increased by 300 kg to 36,045 kg - Silver: COMEX inventory decreased by 5260.36 kg to 15,753,687.21 kg, and SHFE inventory decreased by 25,570 kg to 1,158,387 kg [10] 7. Fund Holdings - As of August 5, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 230,217 contracts, an increase of 13,029 contracts from last week - As of August 5, the net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 48,500 contracts, a decrease of 8719 contracts from last week [10] 8. Key Points to Watch This Week - August 12 (Tuesday), 20:30: US July CPI annual rate unadjusted - August 14 (Thursday), 20:30: US July PPI annual rate - August 15 (Thursday), 20:30: US July retail sales annual rate; 22:00: US August preliminary University of Michigan consumer confidence index [32]