Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25%, marking the first rate cut within 2025 and a continuation of the easing cycle after three consecutive cuts in 2024 [2] - The decision to cut rates is primarily driven by a weak labor market, which poses greater risks than the moderate rebound in inflation, prompting the Fed to take "preventive" measures [2] - The dot plot indicates that among 19 Fed officials, 9 expect one more rate cut this year, while another 9 anticipate two additional cuts, and one official predicts a total cut of 125 basis points [2] Group 2 - Gold prices have surged approximately 40% year-to-date, driven by market sentiment surrounding the Fed's rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions [2] - The current gold price is trading around $3,657.58 per ounce, with a slight decline of 0.05%, and has shown a bullish short-term trend [1][2] - Analysts expect that while geopolitical factors may introduce volatility in gold prices, the long-term outlook remains positive as gold serves as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty [3] Group 3 - Technical analysis suggests that gold prices are currently supported by the 183-hour moving average, with potential resistance at $3,685/86 if the price breaks above the 20-period moving average [4] - The Fed's dovish stance is expected to benefit gold in a low-interest-rate environment, as it reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets and supports inflation expectations [4]

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range from 4.25%-4.5% to 4.00%-4.25%, a decrease of 25 basis points, marking the first rate cut in nine months[2] - The median dot plot indicates the Fed expects three rate cuts this year, an increase from the previous forecast, with one additional cut expected next year[2] - The decision reflects a shift in focus from inflation to employment, as employment growth has slowed and the unemployment rate has slightly increased[6] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Forecasts - Non-farm payrolls added only 22,000 jobs in August, significantly below expectations, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%[7] - The Fed revised down non-farm employment data for April 2024 to March 2025 by 911,000, the largest historical revision[7] - The Fed raised its GDP growth forecast for this year from 1.4% to 1.6% while lowering unemployment rate expectations for the next two years[8] Group 3: Inflation and Tariff Impact - Core PCE inflation is expected to be influenced by tariffs, contributing only 0.3-0.4 percentage points, indicating a slower and smaller impact than anticipated[7] - The Fed's inflation target is now projected to be reached by 2028, reflecting concerns about persistent inflation in the medium term[8] Group 4: Future Policy Uncertainty - The internal policy divergence within the Fed is significant, with 9 members expecting two more cuts this year, while 6 do not foresee any further cuts[9] - The likelihood of continuous rate cuts remains uncertain, as economic data and political factors will heavily influence future decisions[12] - The Fed's gradual approach aims to balance employment stability with inflation control, avoiding rapid rate adjustments[10]

受访专家指出，美联储此次降息符合市场预期，就业已取代通胀成为当前政策的首要关注点。展望未 来，美联储降息路径的不确定性较高，但总体来看或仍将采用"温和、渐进式"的降息节奏。对于全球金 融市场而言，美联储重启降息周期将推动全球流动性条件边际改善，不过影响力度受制于降息节奏与其 他主要央行政策的相对变化。 美联储时隔9个月降息 美联储此次降息距离上次已时隔9个月。2024年9月至12月，美联储在三次议息会议上连续降息共计100 个基点，此后又在市场期待中连续多次"按兵不动"。在当地时间9月17日重启降息前，市场对50个基点 的降息幅度也有所预期，不过最终并未兑现。 据央视新闻报道，在货币政策会议结束后的新闻发布会上，美联储主席鲍威尔表示："短期内，通胀风 险偏向上行，就业风险偏向下行——这是一个棘手的局面。当我们的目标像这样产生冲突时，我们的框 架要求我们在双重使命的两个方面之间取得平衡。由于就业面临的下行风险有所增加，风险平衡已经发 生了变化。" 央广网北京9月18日消息（记者 冯方）当地时间9月17日，美联储结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布 将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到4.00%至4.25%之间。这 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut since September 2024, which aligns with market expectations [2][3][4] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Cut - The decision to cut rates was supported by many analysts, indicating it was anticipated by the market [2][3] - The Fed's dot plot suggests three rate cuts for the year, with the next expected in October and December [3][4] - The primary driver for the rate cut was weaker-than-expected non-farm payroll data, indicating a slowdown in the U.S. economy [3][4] Group 2: Economic Predictions and Market Reactions - The Fed raised GDP and inflation forecasts while lowering unemployment rate predictions [2][3] - Following the announcement, major asset prices experienced a V-shaped reversal, with little change in market expectations for future rate cuts [2][3] - The implied probability of a rate cut in October remains around 80%, with an average of 1.8 more cuts expected this year [2][3] Group 3: Divergence within the Federal Reserve - There are noticeable divisions within the Fed, with Chairman Powell seeking a suitable path for rate cuts amidst differing opinions [6][7] - The internal disagreements are exacerbated by external pressures, particularly from former President Trump, who has influenced Fed decisions through nominations [7][6] Group 4: Impacts on Financial Markets - Historical trends suggest that a Fed rate cut typically leads to an increase in stock prices, a decline in bond yields, and mixed effects on the dollar and gold prices [8][9] - The recent rate cut is expected to have a limited impact on asset performance due to already high market expectations [8][9] - The potential for a global wave of rate cuts may arise, with the Chinese central bank also having room for monetary easing [10]

北京时间9月18日凌晨，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率下调25个基点至 4.00%—4.25%，这是自2023年12月 暂停加息以来，美联储再次启动降息周期。 美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示，此次降息举措是一项风险管理决策，没有必要快速调整利率。 这意味着美联储并不会进入持续性的降息周期，市场情绪因此降温。 降息消息公布后，美股冲高回落，截至收盘，道指上涨0.57%，纳指跌0.33%，标普500跌0.1%。 9月18日早盘，三大股指小幅高开。 一反常态的"一团和气" 此次降息决定以 11:1 的投票结果通过。新任理事斯蒂芬 米兰成为唯一反对者，他主张直接降息 50 基 点。米兰的立场与其政治背景紧密相关，作为特朗普提名并火速上任的理事，他长期公开批评现任主席 鲍威尔的政策节奏，并呼应特朗普的政治诉求，多次呼吁大幅降息以刺激经济。 值得注意的是，同样由特朗普提名的鹰派理事鲍曼和沃勒，此次却选择支持25个基点的渐进式降息。这 一现象被市场解读为他们试图在政治压力与专业判断之间寻求平衡。两人虽认可降息的必要性，但认为 25个基点的调整更契合当前经济数据，能有效避免过度刺激引发通胀反弹。 美联储的这种分歧在"点阵图"中 ...

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 9 月 18 日 [Table_Title] 矛盾纠结下的预防性降息 [Table_Title2] ——9 月美联储议息会议点评 [Table_Summary] 事件概述 北京时间 9 月 18 日凌晨 2 时，美联储公布 2025 年 9 月 FOMC 会议声明。相关点评如下： 主要观点 ► 美联储操作：如期降息 25BP，维持当前缩表节奏 美联储降息 25BP，重启降息周期。美联储 9 月议息会议宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至 4.00%至 4.25% 之间（下调 25bp），符合 CME 期货价格隐含的市场预期。但本次会议在降息的同时，下调了明年的降息预期， 出现了所谓的"鹰派降息"。 缩表按原计划推进。此次 FOMC 会议仍表明会继续按之前节奏实施缩表，维持月度减持美国国债的上限在 50 亿 美元，月度减持抵押贷券(MBS)规模在 350 亿美元。 ► 议息会议声明：就业下行风险正在上升 ► 经济指标预测：上调经济预期、下调失业预期 此次美联储给出的经济指标预期较 2025 年 6 月发生了一些变化： 上调经济增速预期。其中，20 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and following three cuts in 2024 [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Open Market Committee voted 11 to 1 in favor of the rate cut, with the only dissenting vote from newly appointed member Stephen Milan, who advocated for a 50 basis point cut [1] - The rate cut is characterized as a "preventive cut" aimed at increasing market liquidity to stimulate economic activity and support the job market, while also mitigating the risk of a "hard landing" for the U.S. economy [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, market reactions were muted, with initial gains in both stock and bond markets quickly reversing. The Dow Jones increased by 0.6%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell by 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively [3] - Investors had anticipated that the rate cut would boost the economy and corporate profits, contributing to recent highs in major stock indices [3] Group 3: Future Projections - The Federal Reserve updated its "dot plot," indicating expectations for two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each within the year, which is one more than previously forecasted in June [5] - Some officials predict a total reduction of 125 basis points in the policy rate by the end of the year, reflecting a dovish stance among committee members [5] Group 4: Political Influence and Economic Concerns - Analysts express concerns that the rate cut may be influenced by political pressure from President Trump, with some arguing that the labor market is not weak enough to justify a rate cut [7] - Powell stated that political considerations do not influence the Fed's decisions regarding the benchmark lending rate, emphasizing the independence of the Federal Reserve [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp to 4.00 - 4.25%, with dovish signals. Various assets fluctuated sharply. Domestically, A - shares oscillated and rose, expected to remain high - oscillating. The bond market was in a sensitive period, with limited configuration space [2][3]. - For precious metals, after the Fed's interest - rate cut, gold and silver prices pulled back and are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [4][5]. - Copper prices retreated due to the Fed's weaker - than - expected interest - rate cut and are expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term [6][7]. - Aluminum prices adjusted. The fundamentals remained stable, and the adjustment was expected to be limited [8][9]. - Zinc prices are expected to stabilize and repair after the interest - rate cut, but the upward space depends on the arrival of the consumption peak season [10][11]. - Lead prices oscillated horizontally due to the intertwining of long and short factors [12]. - Tin prices are expected to oscillate weakly as the market digests the Fed's signals [13][14]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate strongly with the improvement of demand expectations [15][16]. - Lithium carbonate prices oscillated, waiting for policy implementation to boost prices [17]. - Nickel prices oscillated. The macro boost was limited, but the relatively loose monetary environment was still positive [18][19]. - Oil prices oscillated due to fluctuating geopolitical risks and limited impact from the Fed's interest - rate cut [20][21]. - For soda ash and glass, attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the glass - soda ash price difference, while being vigilant about the pressure of high soda ash inventory [22]. - Steel prices oscillated after the Fed's interest - rate cut, with limited changes in fundamentals [23][24]. - Iron ore prices oscillated and rebounded, with strong spot prices and expected support from restocking [25]. - Bean and rapeseed meal prices oscillated and declined, influenced by Sino - US news, and are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [26][27]. - Palm oil prices oscillated and adjusted due to the decline in Malaysian palm oil production and uncertain US biodiesel policies [28][29]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Metal Main Varieties Yesterday's Trading Data - The table shows the closing data of main futures markets for various metals, including contract names, closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, open interest, and price units [30]. 2. Industrial Data Perspective - For copper, on September 17, SHFE copper and LME copper prices both declined, with changes in inventory, spot quotes, and other data [31]. - For nickel, SHFE nickel prices fell on September 17, and LME nickel prices remained unchanged, with corresponding changes in inventory and other data [31]. - For zinc, SHFE zinc prices rose slightly on September 17, and LME zinc prices fell, with changes in inventory and other data [34]. - For lead, SHFE lead prices rose on September 17, and LME lead prices fell slightly, with changes in inventory and other data [34]. - For aluminum, SHFE aluminum prices fell on September 17, and LME aluminum prices also declined, with changes in inventory and other data [34]. - For alumina, SHFE alumina prices fell on September 17, and the national average spot price also decreased [34]. - For tin, SHFE tin prices fell on September 17, and LME tin prices also declined, with changes in inventory and other data [34]. - For precious metals, there were changes in prices, inventory, and other data of gold and silver in different markets on September 17 [34]. - For other varieties such as steel, iron ore, coke, coal, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and agricultural products, there were corresponding price and data changes on September 17 [36][38].

Monetary Policy Changes - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%–4.25%[11] - The Fed's focus has shifted from "controlling inflation" to "supporting employment" due to concerns over a slowing labor market[2] Economic Outlook - Non-farm payrolls have significantly declined, averaging only 29,000 new jobs per month from June to August, compared to over 120,000 earlier in the year[12] - The unemployment rate has risen from 4.1% to 4.3%[12] Future Rate Expectations - The Fed is expected to implement two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each in October and December, totaling a 75 basis point reduction for the year[28] - The median projection in the dot plot indicates a potential return to a natural rate of around 3.0% by 2027[15] Inflation Concerns - Core PCE inflation is projected to remain elevated at 3.1% by year-end, with expectations of a decline to 2.6% by the end of next year[14] - The Fed acknowledges the risk of inflation rising again, particularly if tariff-induced cost increases persist[29] Market Impacts - Short-term U.S. Treasury yields are expected to decline more than long-term yields due to the rate cuts[33] - The U.S. dollar is likely to face continued pressure, having already depreciated nearly 10% since the beginning of the year[33] Implications for China - The Fed's rate cuts may provide more room for China's monetary policy adjustments, potentially leading to lower domestic interest rates[35] - Increased global liquidity could benefit China's stock market and stabilize the RMB exchange rate[35]

(文/陈济深 编辑/张广凯） 美国时间9月17日，美联储宣布降息25个基点，将联邦基准利率下调至4%-4.25%。 这是美联储自去年9月开启降息后第四次降息，也是今年以来首次降息。 本次决议声明新增指出美国就业增长已放缓、失业率略升、就业下行风险增加、风险平衡已转变，删除劳动力市场稳健的表述。利率预测中位值显示联储预 计今年共降息三次，较上次增一次，即此次降息后，年内还有2次降息。 不过美国经济基本面的变化也使得鲍威尔不得不选择降息。 尽管本次降息25个基点符合市场预期，但无论美国总统特朗普还是白宫贸易顾问纳瓦罗都在近日公开呼吁美联储需要大幅降息。鲍威尔则对此在利率决议发 布后的记者发布会上明确表示这是一次预防性降息，后续没有必要快速降低利率，降息50个基点并未获得美联储成员广泛支持，但是其也表示极为罕见的经 济局势导致联邦利率预测分歧较大。 截至目前，特朗普还未对本次降息发表评论，不过在9月15日，其还在社交媒体上表示降息幅度"必须比想象的要大"。 本次议息会议中，由特朗普任命，9月16日才任职的美联储理事米兰上任第二天就火线投下反对票，也是本次唯一反对25个基点降息的理事。而根据美联储 发布的点阵图信息， ...