Core Viewpoint - Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September, USD deposit rates have entered a downward trend, with expectations for further reductions in the future [1][2]. Group 1: USD Deposit Rate Changes - A foreign bank's USD deposit products now offer rates of 3.5% for 1-month, 3-month, and 6-month terms, and 3.05% for 12-month terms, with a 10 basis points (BP) reduction for 1-month and 20 BP for 6-month terms compared to previous rates [1]. - In South China, a foreign bank previously offered rates above 4% for short-term USD deposits, which have now been reduced to 3.75%, 3.85%, and 3.90% for the same terms [1]. - In North China, general account USD deposit rates have been adjusted to 3.1% for 1-month, 3.3% for 3-month, and 3.05% for 6-month terms, with VIP account rates being 45 BP higher [1]. Group 2: Future Expectations and Market Dynamics - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut is characterized as a "risk management cut," aimed at preventing deterioration in the job market, with an implied 50 BP of additional cuts expected within the year [2]. - Different banks are adjusting their rates at varying paces, with state-owned banks maintaining more stable rates compared to foreign and city commercial banks, which are more flexible due to their dollar positions and market competition [2]. - Short-term rates are under greater downward pressure, with expectations that 3-month to 6-month rates may continue to decline, while long-term rates may adjust more moderately [2]. Group 3: Investment Considerations - Investors should be cautious of the risks associated with declining rates and shrinking investment returns, recommending a preference for short-term products to allow for timely strategy adjustments [3]. - Currency fluctuations and hedging costs should be considered, as a weaker dollar could lead to reduced actual returns on USD deposits, with options for hedging through forward contracts or structured deposits [3]. - Liquidity and minimum deposit requirements are important factors, as some high-yield products may have significant withdrawal penalties, necessitating careful fund allocation based on liquidity needs [3].

9月以来，受供应过剩以及中东地缘风险等因素的影响，原油市场整体呈现区间震荡走势。展望四季 度，OPEC+持续增产，美国原油产量也稳定在高位，叠加需求进入季节性淡季，原油价格的运行重心 趋于下移。与此同时，地缘政治因素导致的供应风险或进一步放大油价的波动率。 美联储货币政策重回降息周期 北京时间9月18日凌晨，美联储宣布降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至4.00%~4.25%区 间。此为年内美联储首次降息，与市场预期相符。美联储主席鲍威尔在随后的新闻发布会上表示，采取 降息举措是恰当的，此次降息可视为一种风险管理式降息，美联储没有必要快速调整利率。鲍威尔认为 关税政策的负面影响正逐渐显现，劳动力需求趋于放缓，并且就业下行风险已超过通胀上升的风险，需 要进行预防式降息。 利率点阵图显示，2025年、2026年和2027年的联邦基金利率预期中值分别为3.6%、3.4%和3.1%，显示 年内美联储还会有2次降息，且明、后年分别有1次降息。需要注意的是，鉴于美联储缩表进程仍在持续 推进，美债净发行将从金融市场回收资金，进而给银行体系的流动性造成压力。 在此背景下，全球经济仍面临下行压力，未来，如果美国就业市场 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report In September 2025, multiple employment data in the US indicated a cooling labor market, and the cost - pressure transmission of tariff adjustments was still slow. The economic recovery momentum in the Eurozone, Japan, etc., increased. In terms of monetary policy, the Fed's restart of interest rate cuts was fulfilled as expected, which was defined as a "risk - management - style" cut by Powell and was somewhat hawkish. The European and British central banks remained on hold, waiting for the tariff impact to become clearer. In October, attention should be paid to the fundamental performance of major countries, and the intensification of capital market volatility risks should be vigilant [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overseas Economy: Divergent Monetary Policy Trends and Overall Controllable Inflation Pressure 3.1.1 Global Economy: Resilient Economy and Manufacturing PMI Back in Expansion Zone The global economy remained resilient, and the manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion zone. In August, the J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI index was 50.9%, up 1.2 percentage points from 49.7% in July. Only the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI was above the 50 boom - bust line among major overseas countries. The global services PMI index decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 53.4% in August, maintaining high - level prosperity. In trade, the Baltic Dry Index fluctuated upward, and South Korea's exports in the first 20 days of September increased by 13.5% year - on - year. The Fed cut interest rates as expected, the European and British central banks remained on hold, and the Bank of Japan sent hawkish signals. The US Treasury Secretary considered "all stabilization options" to support Argentina [8]. 3.1.2 Developed Economies: Resilient Economies in Major Countries and Potentially Controllable Inflation Pressure - **US: Slowing Fundamental Growth Momentum and Cooling Labor Market** - Economic growth showed a divergence in prosperity. Manufacturing continued to contract, while the service industry expanded faster. In August, the US ISM manufacturing PMI rose to 48.7%, and the non - manufacturing PMI rose to 52.0%. - Newly added employment was far below expectations, and the unemployment rate reached a new high. In August, the non - farm payrolls increased by 22,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. - The inflation level was relatively moderate, and the pressure on commodity prices from tariffs was limited. In August, the US CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year. - Retail sales remained resilient, and the sustainability of consumption momentum needed attention. In August, US retail sales increased by 0.62% month - on - month. - The real estate market was restricted by high mortgage rates and rising housing prices [21][22][23]. - **Eurozone: Strengthening Recovery Momentum, Divergent Prosperity in the UK and Japan, and Unstable Manufacturing Recovery Foundation** - The Eurozone's recovery momentum increased. In August, the composite PMI rose to 51.0%, and the manufacturing PMI rose to 50.7%. - The UK's manufacturing continued to contract, while business activities in the service industry accelerated expansion. In August, the UK's manufacturing PMI fell to 47.0%, and the service industry PMI rose to 54.2%. - Japan's economic prosperity was divergent. In August, the composite PMI rose to 52.0%, and the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7%. - In terms of inflation, the Eurozone's inflation remained stable month - on - month, the UK faced greater pressure, and Japan's inflation remained high [35][37][39]. 3.2 Monetary Policy: US Restarts Rate Cuts, Europe and UK are Cautious, and Japan Sends More Hawkish Signals 3.2.1 Fed: "Risk - Management - Style" Rate Cut Implemented, Focus on Downward Employment Risks On September 18, the Fed cut interest rates for the first time this year, lowering the federal funds rate target range by 25BP to 4.0% - 4.25%. The policy balance shifted from focusing on inflation rebound to employment stall risks. The dot - plot predicted two more rate cuts in October and December. Whether to cut rates again in October depends on the performance of September's non - farm data, and the Fed's independence and the composition of the new council members have increased the uncertainty of future rate - cut prospects [54]. 3.2.2 ECB: ECB Continues to Hold Rates Steady, Inflation Risks are Roughly Balanced On September 11, the ECB held rates steady, maintaining the main refinancing rate at 2.15%. It believed that manufacturing and services were growing, and previous rate cuts would further boost consumption and investment. It raised inflation expectations for 2025 and 2026 and lowered those for 2027. In the future, it may continue to make data - dependent and meeting - by - meeting decisions [58]. 3.2.3 BoJ: Increased Probability of Interest Rate Hike, Planned Reduction of ETF and Other Assets On September 19, the BoJ kept the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% and decided to gradually sell ETF and J - REITs in the market. Two officials voted against and supported a 25 - basis - point rate hike. If economic and price forecasts are realized, the BoJ may continue to raise interest rates, increasing the possibility of restarting rate hikes this year [61]. 3.2.4 BoE: BoE Maintains Interest Rates, Slows Down Quantitative Tightening, and Reduces Expectations of Rate Cuts This Year On September 18, the Monetary Policy Committee voted to keep the policy rate at 4% and announced a reduction in the scale of central bank balance - sheet contraction from October. Concerns about inflation rebound made the market cautious about further rate cuts by the BoE this year [64]. 3.3 Financial Markets: US Treasury Yields First Declined and Then Rose, the US Dollar Index Weakened, and International Oil Prices Fluctuated 3.3.1 US Bond Market: Cooling Labor Market and Fed Rate Cut Implementation Led to Fluctuations in US Treasury Yields In September, the US bond market focused on the weakening labor market and the Fed's rate cut. In the first and middle of the month, the yield dropped from 4.28% to around 4%. In the late month, it rebounded to around 4.15%. Overall, the 2 - year US Treasury yield rose 2BP to 3.61%, and the 10 - year yield fell 8BP to 4.15% [67][68]. 3.3.2 Exchange - Rate Market: Weakening US Dollar Index, Fluctuating Japanese Yen, and Strengthening Euro and Pound - The US dollar index was overall weak. In early September, the downward risks in the labor market increased rate - cut expectations and pressured the US dollar. In the middle and late months, the Fed's rate cut was less dovish than expected, and the US dollar index rebounded. - The Japanese yen fluctuated in a narrow range between 146 - 148 due to the US dollar index and domestic political uncertainties. - The euro and pound strengthened overall. In the first and middle of the month, the Eurozone's economic indicators were positive, and the pound was supported by the UK's fiscal policy and the BoE's stance [69][70]. 3.3.3 International Crude Oil: Geopolitical Frictions and Oil - Demand Outlook Caused Volatility in Crude Oil Prices In September, international oil prices fluctuated around $63 per barrel. In early September, concerns about OPEC + production increases and US economic recession led to a price drop. Then, geopolitical tensions and reduced concerns about supply surpluses pushed prices up. In the middle and late months, the Fed's statement on employment risks and EU sanctions on Russia caused prices to fall again [74].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that despite the recent interest rate cut, the current monetary policy stance remains "moderately restrictive," suggesting potential for further rate cuts if labor market weakness continues to outweigh inflation concerns [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate to a range of 4%–4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025, described by Powell as a "risk management cut" to address warning signs in the labor market [1]. - Powell highlighted the dual risks of inflation and employment, stating that rapid or excessive rate cuts could keep inflation around 3%, deviating from the Fed's 2% target, while prolonged tight policies could unnecessarily suppress the labor market [2]. - Recent data indicates a significant slowdown in U.S. job growth, complicating the assessment of economic conditions, with labor supply shrinking due to stricter immigration enforcement policies [2][4]. Group 2: Inflation Concerns - Powell emphasized the need for vigilance regarding the inflation effects of tariffs imposed by President Trump, noting that tariff increases would take time to filter through supply chains, leading to a temporary rise in price levels over several quarters [2][3]. - The latest data and surveys suggest that price increases are primarily due to tariff hikes rather than broader price pressures [3]. Group 3: Market Valuation and Financial Stability - Powell acknowledged that stock market prices are relatively high, indicating that the Fed monitors the overall financial environment and assesses whether its policies are influencing it as intended [5]. - Despite recognizing the high valuations in the stock market, Powell stated that it is not currently a time of rising financial stability risks [5].

后续黄金价格会依旧偏强 北京时间9月18日凌晨，备受市场关注的美联储降息靴子落地：美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下 调25个基点，至4.00%~4.25%。这是美联储2025年首次降息，也是其继2024年3次降息后再次降息。美 联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上的表态略显"鹰派"，认为这次降息是一次"风险管理"，下一步应该做什 么并不明朗，并表示没有必要快速调整利率。四季度，随着美国降息和减税政策陆续落地，风险资产预 计将从交易"政策预期"回归交易"基本面现实"。 A美联储降息25个基点释放出哪些信号 北京时间9月18日凌晨，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点，至4.00%~4.25%区间。这 是美联储2025年首次降息，也是其继2024年3次降息后再次降息。从会议投票结果来看，12名决策者中 有11票赞成、1票反对，显示美联储内部对降息幅度的争议，意外地小于市场的预期。 值得关注的是，9月16日临场上任、由美国总统特朗普提名的新理事米兰主张降息50个基点。而在7月议 息会议上曾投票支持降息，被视作下任美联储主席有力竞争者的鲍曼和沃勒这两名理事，在此次会议上 均支持谨慎降息25个基点。被特朗普公开要求 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that despite the recent interest rate cut, the current monetary policy stance remains "moderately restrictive," suggesting potential for further rate cuts if labor market weakness continues to outweigh inflation concerns [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate to a range of 4%–4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025, described by Powell as a "risk management cut" to address warning signs in the labor market [1]. - Powell emphasized the dual risks of inflation and employment, stating that if rates are cut too quickly or too much, inflation could remain around 3% instead of approaching the Fed's 2% target [1][2]. - Recent data indicates a significant slowdown in U.S. job growth, complicating the assessment of economic conditions, particularly with the impact of President Trump's immigration policies on labor supply [1][2]. Group 2: Inflation Concerns - Powell warned about the potential sustained inflation effects from tariff increases, noting that price levels could rise due to supply chain adjustments, with impacts spreading over several quarters [2][3]. - The recent price increases are primarily attributed to tariff hikes rather than broader price pressures, indicating a specific inflationary concern linked to trade policies [3]. Group 3: Market Valuation and Financial Stability - Powell acknowledged that stock market prices appear relatively high, suggesting that the Fed monitors the overall financial environment and its impact on policy effectiveness [5]. - Despite recognizing high stock valuations, Powell stated that it is not currently a time of rising financial stability risks [6].

Economic Conditions - The U.S. economy is facing "stagflation-like" challenges with noticeable weakness in economic growth and the job market, while inflation remains high [1][2] - Recent data indicates a slowdown in economic growth, a slight increase in unemployment, and a cooling consumer spending environment, despite inflation levels exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% target [1][2] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve recently implemented its first interest rate cut since 2025, lowering the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4%-4.25%, described as a "risk management" operation [1][2] - The latest dot plot suggests three potential rate cuts in 2025, an increase from the previous forecast of two, although there is significant internal division among Fed officials regarding the pace of rate cuts [1][2] Labor Market and Immigration - The labor supply and demand in the U.S. are weakening, exacerbated by tightened immigration policies under the Trump administration, leading to increased job market challenges [2] - There are growing divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the need for aggressive rate cuts to prevent falling behind economic conditions [2] Market Reactions - Following Powell's remarks, U.S. Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year yield dropping to 4.11%, while the stock market experienced declines, particularly in technology stocks [3][4] - Market expectations indicate a potential total rate cut of approximately 43 basis points by year-end, with some investors speculating on a possible 50 basis point cut in a future meeting [3][4] Financial Stability - Powell noted that while U.S. stock market valuations appear relatively high, there are currently no significant signs of increased financial stability risks [3] - Upcoming key economic data, including GDP and core PCE, may further influence market volatility and the Federal Reserve's policy direction [4]

Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00%-4.25%, aligning with market expectations[9] - The dot plot indicates a median rate expectation of 3.5%-3.75% by year-end, suggesting a total of 50 basis points of potential rate cuts remaining this year[24] - There is significant divergence among committee members regarding future monetary policy, with some advocating for higher rates based on perceptions of a higher natural rate[2] Group 2: Labor Market Analysis - Non-farm payroll data shows a decline in labor force participation, which may suppress potential economic growth and push down the natural rate[3] - A notable increase in the percentage of workers finding it difficult to secure jobs was observed in August, indicating potential weakness in the employment market[3] - The labor market's stagnation could mask underlying employment pressures, as many discouraged workers exit the labor force[3] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims have shown a rapid increase since early August, although recent data indicates some relief[10] - Retail sales in the U.S. have been recovering since early 2024, with positive year-on-year growth maintained for three consecutive months post-May[10] - Japan's CPI and core CPI fell to 2.7% in August, indicating stable inflation excluding food and energy[10] Group 4: Risks and Recommendations - Risks include stronger-than-expected employment data, a rebound in inflation, and fiscal sustainability issues in major economies like the UK and France, which could lead to rising global long-term rates[28] - A strategic recommendation is to focus on long positions in 5-year U.S. Treasuries due to the anticipated downward pressure on natural rates[3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The market is still digesting the Fed's and Powell's hawkish remarks, causing copper prices to oscillate at a low level. Short - term focus on "risk - management style rate cuts" has led to a decline in copper prices, but downstream procurement provides some support, and copper prices are currently in a range - bound oscillation [1][2][11]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Futures and Spot Markets - On Thursday, LME copper prices tumbled. On Friday (20250919), SHFE copper prices showed a relatively strong oscillation at a low level. The main 2510 contract closed at 79,850 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan/ton or 0.34% from the previous trading day's close. The spot market was relatively stable, with downstream enterprises actively replenishing stocks before the weekend, and the spot premium stopped falling and stabilized. The refined - scrap spread in major Chinese markets continued to decline, with 1,526 yuan/ton in Guangdong and 1,473 yuan/ton in Tianjin [1]. 3.2 Macroeconomics and Fundamentals - The market is digesting Powell's "risk - management style rate cuts", which are preventive and emphasize a "one - time" feature. Short - term focus on this type of rate cut has overshadowed the two expected rate cuts by the end of the year shown in the dot - plot. This led to an extreme decline in SHFE copper futures prices on Thursday's Asian session, and prices remained weak on Friday. The market needs more time to absorb Powell's hawkish remarks. Fundamentally, the support for copper prices is limited. China's economy is under pressure, copper consumption lacks highlights, and the increasing COMEX copper inventory dampens the enthusiasm of funds to go long on COMEX copper prices. Although SHFE copper has the best fundamentals among the three, it is also affected by China's macro - economic environment [2][10]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The market's short - term focus on "risk - management style rate cuts" has caused a correction in risk assets including copper. Copper prices are currently in a range - bound oscillation, and the active procurement of downstream enterprises after price drops provides some support for prices [11].

Group 1: Economic Overview - In August, general public budget revenue growth was 2.0%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a weakening fiscal expansion[4] - August public budget expenditure growth was 0.8%, down 2.2 percentage points from the previous month, marking the second-lowest level of the year[6] - Government fund revenue in August fell by 6.0%, a significant drop of 15.4 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to declining land transfer income[7] Group 2: Market Trends - The bond market is experiencing rising yields, influenced more by risk appetite and trading behavior rather than fundamental economic data[2] - The U.S. Federal Reserve has initiated a rate cut cycle, with expectations for further cuts in October and December, which may support a strong performance in the U.S. stock market[2][17] - The S&P 500 index has been fluctuating around 3800, with TMT sectors showing strong performance while dividend-paying sectors lag behind[11] Group 3: Future Outlook - The effectiveness of growth stabilization policies in the fourth quarter remains uncertain, particularly in the real estate, manufacturing, and consumption sectors[10] - The ongoing liquidity environment and fiscal expansion are expected to provide a basic support for the equity market, especially benefiting small-cap stocks[11][21] - The anticipated U.S. rate cuts and tax reduction policies may further bolster the U.S. economy, leading to a continued strong performance in the stock market[21]