Core Points - The Federal Reserve executed its second interest rate cut of the year, lowering the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 3.75% and 4% [3][4] - The Fed announced it will stop reducing its balance sheet starting December 1, marking a significant shift in its liquidity management policy [4][5] - Fed Chairman Powell described the rate cut as a "risk management" move rather than a "relief" operation, indicating a cautious approach due to ongoing economic uncertainties [4][6] Interest Rate Cut and Balance Sheet Reduction - The FOMC's decision to cut rates is the fifth reduction since September 2024, reflecting ongoing concerns about the labor market and inflation [3][4] - The Fed's total assets have been reduced from approximately $9 trillion to about $6.6 trillion during the quantitative tightening period [5] Market Reactions - Following the announcement, U.S. stock indices experienced volatility, with the Dow Jones falling by 0.16% and the Nasdaq rising by 0.55%, indicating mixed market sentiment [6] - The dollar index rose sharply, while the yield on two-year Treasury bonds increased by about 10 basis points [6] Future Rate Cut Expectations - Analysts express cautious optimism regarding future rate cuts, with expectations that the Fed may continue to lower rates in response to economic conditions [7][9] - Powell's comments suggest significant internal disagreement within the Fed regarding future rate cuts, adding uncertainty to the outlook [8][9] Economic Data and Uncertainty - The ongoing government shutdown has led to delays in the release of key economic data, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [4][9] - Despite inflation concerns, the focus has shifted to employment issues, with predictions of continued rate cuts into 2026 [9]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced a rate cut of 25 basis points in October, lowering the federal funds rate range from 4%-4.25% to 3.75%-4%[2] - The Fed shifted its focus from employment market slowdown risks to inflationary pressures in its economic outlook[2] - Future rate cut prospects remain highly uncertain, with Chairman Jerome Powell stating that a December rate cut is "far from a foregone conclusion"[2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with job gains slowing and the unemployment rate slightly increasing but remaining low[4] - Inflation has risen since the beginning of the year and is considered somewhat elevated, indicating ongoing inflationary concerns[5] - The Fed plans to halt the reduction of its balance sheet starting December 1, which may signal a shift in monetary policy approach[5] Group 3: Risk Management and Market Sensitivity - The Fed's risk management approach now prioritizes inflation risks over employment market risks, reflecting a dynamic assessment of economic conditions[6] - AI-related capital expenditures are noted to be less sensitive to interest rates, potentially mitigating the impact of rising rates on the economy[9] - The cumulative rate cuts of 150 basis points, combined with the cessation of balance sheet reduction, may lead to a perception that price tools are sufficiently accommodative for current economic risks[8]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Policy - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, with significant divergence among officials regarding future policy direction [1] - Powell emphasized that the December rate cut is not guaranteed, indicating a cautious approach among officials due to data uncertainty [1] - The Fed's recent rate cut is characterized as a risk management measure, distinguishing the current AI boom from the previous internet bubble [1] Group 2: Commodity Markets - Gold prices fell by 0.56% to $3930.61 per ounce, while silver prices increased by 1.1% to $47.57 per ounce [1] - Oil prices rebounded after a decline, with WTI crude oil rising by 0.27% to $60.21 per barrel and Brent crude oil increasing by 0.70% to $64.20 per barrel, following a larger-than-expected drop in U.S. oil inventories [1] Group 3: Sanctions and Global Markets - The U.S. announced a new round of sanctions against Russia, targeting two oil companies [1] Group 4: Company Milestones - Nvidia became the first company globally to surpass a market capitalization of $5 trillion [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Federal Reserve cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, and announced to end balance sheet reduction on December 1st. The market had largely priced in these moves, and Fed Chair Powell's post - meeting remarks were hawkish, suggesting that a December rate cut is not guaranteed [1][2][7]. - Against the backdrop of the US fiscal deficit, deteriorating debt situation, and increased global confrontation, central banks around the world are continuously increasing their gold holdings. However, due to the weakening of driving factors, precious metals have experienced continuous adjustments after a rapid rise [2][19]. - The domestic stock market showed an upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 4000 points. With the expected continuation of a loose domestic liquidity environment and the potential inflow of external funds, the stock market is expected to continue its upward trend in the short term [3][11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1当日主要新闻关注 - **International News**: The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% and will end balance sheet reduction on December 1st. Inflation remains high, and the risk of employment decline has increased. Powell said a December rate cut is not certain [1][7]. - **Domestic News**: Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30th to exchange views on China - US relations and common concerns [8]. - **Industry News**: The Reserve Bank of India has repatriated nearly 64 tons of gold reserves in the first six months of the current fiscal year, and the proportion of domestic gold reserves has nearly doubled compared to four years ago [9]. 3.2外盘每日收益情况 - Different overseas market varieties showed various trends. For example, the S&P 500 was almost flat, the FTSE China A50 futures rose 0.45%, ICE Brent crude oil rose 0.68%, and London gold fell 0.56% [10]. 3.3主要品种早盘评论 - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: The Fed's rate cut and the expected loose domestic liquidity environment are conducive to the inflow of funds into the stock market. The market style may shift towards value and become more balanced. The stock index is expected to continue rising in the short term [3][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term treasury bond futures prices are supported by the central bank's monetary policy and the expected reasonable and sufficient market liquidity. However, the hawkish remarks on the December rate cut by Powell have led to a rise in US bond yields [12][13]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: Although geopolitical tensions have pushed up oil prices, the overall downward trend is difficult to reverse due to limited impact on Russian oil transportation and unclear market trends [14]. - **Methanol**: The operating load of domestic coal - to - olefin and methanol plants has declined. Coastal methanol inventories have increased slightly, and the market is volatile due to various uncertainties [15]. - **Rubber**: Supply pressure may increase as the rubber - tapping season progresses, but short - term trends are expected to be strong due to expected smooth progress in China - US trade negotiations and the Fed's rate cut [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures rebounded slightly. The supply - demand pressure is temporarily limited, and the market may start to fluctuate after a short - term rebound [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Both glass and soda ash futures showed a rebound, but glass futures fell at night. The domestic market is in a process of inventory digestion, and the focus is on autumn consumption and policy changes [18]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals have been adjusting after the Fed's rate cut. Although the long - term narrative of gold as a safe - haven asset is strengthening, short - term driving factors have weakened, leading to price adjustments [2][19]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose at night. The supply of concentrates is tight, and the Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply - demand gap, providing long - term support for the copper price [20]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rose slightly at night. The processing fee of zinc concentrates has rebounded, and the supply - demand difference is not obvious. The domestic zinc price may be weaker than the overseas price [21]. - **Black Metals**: - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke futures oscillated at a high level at night. The production of five major steel products increased slightly, and the demand for coking coal and coke is supported. The market is expected to be strong in the short term [22][23]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Protein Meal**: The bean and rapeseed meal futures oscillated and rose at night. The sowing of new - season soybeans in Brazil is progressing smoothly, and the export prospects of US soybeans have improved. The domestic market is expected to oscillate in the short term [24]. - **Oils and Fats**: The palm oil futures showed a weak trend at night. The expected increase in palm oil inventory and supply - side pressure are suppressing the short - term market [25]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is in a stock - building stage, and the sugar price is expected to decline. The domestic sugar price is affected by import profits but may be supported by the upcoming new - season crushing [26]. - **Cotton**: The cotton futures continued to oscillate strongly. The new - cotton purchase is in full swing, and the short - term market is expected to remain strong [27]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index oscillated strongly. Some shipping companies have adjusted their freight rates downward. The market is in the traditional peak - season price - holding period, and there may be room for price increases [28].

Core Viewpoint - The recent statements from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have led to a significant shift in market expectations regarding future interest rate cuts, impacting gold prices negatively. Group 1: Gold Market Reaction - Spot gold prices experienced a brief rise to $4007.47 per ounce following the Federal Reserve's decision but subsequently fell to $3930.42 per ounce, a drop of $77 [1] - As of Thursday morning, gold prices further declined to $3916.32 per ounce [2] - The overall decline in gold prices was nearly 0.6% by the end of Wednesday, despite an intraday increase of up to 2% [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, bringing it to a target range of 3.75%-4%, which was in line with market expectations [3] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 10-2 in favor of the rate cut and indicated the end of quantitative tightening by December 1 [3] - The statement highlighted concerns about the labor market and inflation, noting that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace [3] Group 3: Powell's Hawkish Stance - Powell indicated significant internal disagreement within the FOMC regarding future rate cuts, stating that further cuts are not guaranteed [4] - Following Powell's comments, the implied probability of a 25 basis point cut in December dropped from 95% to 67.9%, a decrease of nearly 30 percentage points [4] - The divergence in opinions among Fed officials reflects ongoing tensions between stabilizing prices and achieving full employment [4][5] Group 4: Market Analysts' Perspectives - Analysts have noted that the market's reaction to Powell's comments is justified, as the reduction in rate cut expectations will likely strengthen the dollar and suppress gold prices [6] - The tension within the Fed regarding inflation and interest rates has led to a cooling of market expectations for December rate cuts [7]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices experienced fluctuations and closed lower on October 29, with a closing price of $3993.00 per ounce after reaching a high of $4030.36 and a low of $3913.43 [1] Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's interest rate was set at 4%, aligning with market expectations, down from the previous 4.25% [3] - The FOMC statement indicated a split among members regarding future rate cuts, with some supporting a 50 basis point cut while others preferred to maintain the current rate [3][4] - Economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with employment growth slowing and a slight increase in the unemployment rate [3][4] Federal Reserve Insights - Fed Chair Powell emphasized that the decision for a December rate cut is not guaranteed and highlighted significant uncertainty due to a lack of government data [4][5] - The probability of a 25 basis point cut in December is estimated at 67.8%, while the likelihood of maintaining the current rate is 32.2% [5] Gold Market Dynamics - The largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, saw a decrease in holdings by 2.87 tons, bringing the total to 1036.05 tons [5] - Gold prices are currently in a downtrend since peaking at $4381, with short-term indicators suggesting a bearish outlook [9] Trading Strategy - Suggested trading strategies include cautious high short and low long positions, with specific entry and exit points outlined for both aggressive and conservative traders [10]

Group 1 - UK inflation remained unexpectedly stable in September, with CPI rising 3.8% year-on-year, matching the previous value and falling below market expectations of 4% [1] - Core CPI for September increased by 3.5% year-on-year, lower than the previous value of 3.6% and market expectations of 3.7% [1] - The stable inflation has led traders to increase bets on a rate cut by the Bank of England, with the market now expecting a 17 basis point cut by the end of December, equating to a 70% probability of a 25 basis point cut [1] Group 2 - The two-year UK government bond yield fell by 10 basis points to 3.75%, the lowest level since August 2024, influenced by the rising expectations of rate cuts [4] - The British pound depreciated by 0.4% against the US dollar, trading at 1.3320 [4] Group 3 - The UK unemployment rate rose to 4.8% in August, the highest level since May 2021, contrary to expectations of stability [5] - Private sector wage growth slowed to 4.4%, below market expectations and marking the lowest level since the end of 2021, although still above the Bank of England's target of around 3% [5] - Bank of England Governor Bailey expressed concerns about the economy operating below potential and the ongoing weakness in the labor market [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, marking the first reduction since December 2024 and the first under the new monetary policy framework introduced in August 2024 [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - Following the announcement, the S&P 500 index initially rose by 0.5%, indicating a positive market sentiment [3] - However, after Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference, where he described the cut as a "risk management" move due to concerns over the labor market, the market experienced a decline, with a maximum drop of 0.8% [3] - Powell's comments about the potential for further actions led to a brief market rebound, but the overall closing was slightly down [5] Group 2: Changes in Monetary Policy Approach - The recent interest rate cut differs significantly from the one in September 2024, where Powell referred to it as a "recalibration" with a clear plan for economic soft landing [8] - In contrast, the current approach is more reactive, with Powell stating that future decisions will be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis, indicating a lack of a predetermined path [8] - The shift in strategy is attributed to the complexities introduced by Trump's tariff policies, which have created a unique economic environment characterized by "policy-induced price increases" [10] Group 3: New Framework Implications - The Federal Reserve's new "flexible inflation targeting" framework requires attention to both employment and inflation, contrasting with the previous focus solely on employment [12] - This change necessitates a more cautious approach to rate cuts, as the Fed must balance the risks of overheating the labor market while addressing inflation concerns [12] Group 4: Future Outlook - There are strong expectations for another rate cut in October, influenced by the current economic conditions and the Fed's recent actions [14] - The recent cut is viewed as a temporary measure rather than a long-term solution, with caution advised for investors due to high market valuations and ongoing inflation uncertainties [16]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction is a focal point for global financial markets, with a strong expectation for interest rate cuts in the near future, particularly a 25 basis point cut in October and a cumulative 50 basis point cut by December [1][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Perspectives - Federal Reserve Governor Milan advocates for a 50 basis point cut but expects a 25 basis point reduction, indicating a divergence in views among officials regarding the pace of rate cuts rather than the ultimate goal [2]. - Governor Waller suggests a cautious approach, proposing a 25 basis point cut first to observe market reactions before determining the next steps [3][2]. - Waller also notes that the current inflation rate is estimated at 2.5%, with no significant factors expected to cause a sharp increase, while the job market remains weak [3]. Group 2: Market Volatility and Rate Cut Expectations - The U.S. stock market has experienced volatility, with the VIX index reaching its highest level since April, driven by trade tensions and uncertainties surrounding government shutdowns [4]. - The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on October 28-29 is anticipated to result in a 25 basis point rate cut, with the target federal funds rate potentially falling to a range of 4% to 4.25% [5]. - The market's strong expectation for rate cuts is influenced by a combination of economic data, differing opinions among Federal Reserve officials, and pressures from market volatility [6].

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) may need to consider further interest rate cuts in the coming months due to increasing economic headwinds and downward risks to both growth and inflation, with a focus on maintaining inflation around the 2% medium-term target [1] Economic Conditions - Recent signs of deterioration in the German industrial sector and potential political developments in France could lead to a fiscal consolidation process, which typically implies lower economic growth prospects and suppressed overall demand [1] - Wage growth is slowing, indicating a weakening momentum in the services sector, aligning with the ECB's assessments [1] Monetary Policy Strategy - Following eight previous rate cuts, further action may be necessary, with a strong endorsement of a "risk management" approach to monetary policy to actively manage risks, which are currently skewed to the downside [1] - Several long-time advocates for maintaining accommodative options share the view that the primary risk is not high inflation, but rather the possibility of actual inflation remaining persistently below forecast levels, highlighting the need for policy flexibility and potential additional easing measures [1]