格隆汇12月17日｜西部证券称，美股"AI泡沫论"担忧可能会放大日本加息的影响，如果美国连续出现2- 3次股债汇三杀，建议可以卖出资产，持有货币，等待流动性冲击倒逼美联储明确的量化宽松之后，再 相机增持资产。策略师曹柳龙团队在报告中指出，日本央行决策基本明牌，但资金的选择难以预测，这 种情况下建议多看少动不过，即便日本加息导致流动性冲击，也不会改变全球中长期宽松的趋势。大类 资产继续看好A和H股，中国国债把握修复机会，战略配置黄金，美股和美债或维持震荡。 ...

首先，日元加息预期与"AI叙事"主导短期市场。上周，美联储宣布降息25个基点，且表态偏鸽派。本周的市场焦点将转向日元是否加息，考虑到日元 是全球主要套息交易的货币，其全球市场的影响力不容忽视。此外，上周五美国科技股出现集体大跌，AI 泡沫论似有卷土重来之势。这对本周一 A 股科 技资产的表现造成了一定负面的影响，投资者谨慎情绪亦有所提升，需要密切关注"AI叙事"的未来走向。 其次，周一两市震荡调整，成交下降。沪指今日低开后，震荡回落，盘中反弹被上方均线压制，收盘于短期均线下方。深圳成指跌幅 大于沪指，收盘于当天低点附近。两市成交金额1.7 万亿元左右，较上周五明显下降。当天市场热点主要集中在大消费和金融行业。 投资风格方面，科技股跌幅更大。 从运行节奏看，沪指快速调整后连续修复，但短期重新遇到波折。沪指于11月中旬出现快速调整，随后在10月上旬的低点上方获得支撑，并逐渐企稳 反弹。上周一沪指回补缺口后，又再次向下调整，目前中短期均线在上方形成一定压力。 风险提示：国际贸易、地缘冲突超出预期；上市公司业绩增速回落超预期；全球经济衰退超预期。 ...

Group 1: Investment Strategy Overview - The report indicates a long-term downtrend in the bond market, with a target for the 30-year government bond near the low point from September 30, 2024 [4][17][10] - The A-share market is at a critical juncture, with the index approaching a support level of 3850 points, suggesting a potential for significant market movement [5][21][10] - The report highlights a shift in focus towards domestic consumption, driven by recent central economic work meetings, which may influence sector performance [5][21] Group 2: Market Performance and Sector Analysis - The insurance and beverage manufacturing sectors are showing strength, while the semiconductor sector is underperforming [21] - The report notes that the U.S. stock market is experiencing a style shift, with technology stocks facing downward pressure due to concerns over AI bubbles and rising bond yields [25][27] - The commodity market is expected to remain volatile, with the renewable energy sector leading gains, while agricultural products are lagging [32][10] Group 3: Key Economic Indicators - In November, China's retail sales increased by 1.3% year-on-year, while industrial output grew by 4.8% [36][40] - The report mentions a price surge in lithium iron phosphate, with leading companies raising prices by 2000 to 3000 yuan per ton due to increased demand and rising raw material costs [36][38] - The offshore RMB has appreciated against the dollar, indicating strong market expectations for RMB stability [30][31]

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant upward revision in earnings for the Nasdaq, indicating a potential for a favorable Christmas market [3][6] - The S&P 500 index experienced a weekly decline of 0.6%, while year-to-date it has risen by 16.1%. The Nasdaq index fell by 1.9% for the week but is up 19.9% year-to-date [27][30] - The report notes that the technology sector remains a key focus, with strong performance expected from AI-related companies as OpenAI introduces advanced models [3][6] Group 2 - The report indicates that the financial sector, particularly non-bank financials, has shown strong capital inflows, with an estimated daily capital intensity of approximately $9.3 billion [38] - The semiconductor industry faced challenges, with a negative daily capital intensity of about -$71 billion, indicating a lack of investor confidence [38] - The report emphasizes that traditional industries such as steel, non-ferrous metals, and building materials have outperformed, with respective weekly gains of 4.1%, 3.8%, and 3.6% [30][34] Group 3 - The report discusses the performance of key stocks within the S&P 500, noting that companies like Mosaic and Molina Healthcare led the gains with weekly increases of 11% [34] - The report also highlights the performance of core S&P 500 stocks, with Visa and Mastercard showing strong weekly gains of 5.0% and 4.8% respectively [36] - The report mentions that the AI sector continues to grow, with expectations for significant advancements and market expansion [3][6]

"中国当前的宏观经济工作，已经从短期的风险应对模式，转向更加注重中长期经济转型的模式。"近 期，渣打银行大中华区及北亚首席经济学家丁爽在接受南方+记者采访时表示。 他认为，2026年中国经济面临的外部环境较2025年有望趋于平稳，宏观政策也将逐步回归中长期视角， 把重心更多放在提升潜在增长率、培育新动能上，为"十五五"开局夯实基础。 放眼全球，当前世界经济仍在韧性增长与多重不确定性之间摆动。 明年全球增长动能将如何在消费与投资之间切换？在这一外部环境下，中国经济又将如何更好把握"稳 增长"与"促转型"的节奏？如何看待所谓"AI泡沫论"、外资配置中国资产、中国"反内卷"政策走向、房 地产市场调整进程？围绕这些问题，丁爽给出了前瞻性分析。 全球经济仍面临多重风险 预计黄金价格继续上行至4750美元/盎司 南方+：展望中国宏观经济走势，你有哪些观察？ 丁爽：我们认为，中国当前的宏观经济工作，已经从短期的风险应对模式，转向更加注重中长期经济转 型的模式。这一变化与外部环境阶段性趋稳密切相关。 去年底中央提出"超常规逆周期调节"，主要是应对外部冲击；而近期提出的"加大逆周期和跨周期调节 力度"，在强调稳增长的同时，引入 ...

首先，美联储降息落地，市场预期转向国内。 上周，美联储宣布降息25个基点，且表态偏鸽派。市场预期似乎比较充分，全球股市波动不大。A股开 始聚焦国内政策预期和明年经济工作的重点方向。临近周末美股科技股波动有所增加，AI泡沫论似有卷土重来之势，预计市场仍将在复杂的环境中反复 震荡，等待方向的明朗。 上周市场震荡分化，量能有所放大。 沪指上周的走势类似前周，两头上涨，中间调整，围绕60 天均线反复争夺，周五收盘在60天均线下方。深圳成 指更为强势，周五收盘于60天均线上方。量能方面，上周两市日均量能约 19337 亿元左右，较前周大幅增长。上周市场热点主要集中在军工和通信行业。 投资风格方面，中小盘和科技风格领涨，大盘蓝筹股略有调整。 从运行节奏看，沪指快速调整后，仍在修复途中 。沪指于11月中旬出现快速调整，随后在10 月上旬的低点上方获得支撑，并逐渐企稳反弹。上周一 沪指回补缺口后，又再次向下调整，60天均线仍在反复争夺。 风险提示 ：国际地缘、贸易冲突超出预期；全球金融市场风险暴露；国内上市公司业绩增速回落超预期；全球经济衰退超预期。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The debate surrounding the potential AI bubble is intensifying, with contrasting opinions on whether the current AI investment climate represents a sustainable technological evolution or a speculative financial game [1][2]. Group 1: AI Bubble Debate - SoftBank's founder Masayoshi Son argues that AI could generate returns equivalent to 10% of global GDP in the long term, suggesting that the current investments are justified [1]. - Concerns about an AI bubble have been fueled by SoftBank's recent decision to sell all its shares in NVIDIA, which some interpret as a sign of capital retreat from the AI sector [1]. - NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang asserts that the current AI landscape is fundamentally different from the internet bubble, emphasizing that AI is transforming existing workloads without evidence of a bubble [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Concerns - OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman has expressed concerns about an overheated AI market, indicating that it may be on the verge of a bubble [2]. - Goldman Sachs has released reports warning of signs similar to those preceding the internet bubble, suggesting that the current AI sector may be experiencing even greater levels of speculation [2]. - Criticism has emerged regarding the "circular financing" model in AI, where suppliers invest in customers who then purchase from suppliers, potentially leading to inflated valuations and future demand issues [3]. Group 3: Structural Changes in the AI Industry - Baidu's founder Robin Li highlights a shift in the AI industry structure from an unhealthy "pyramid" to a healthier "inverted pyramid," where the value distribution is more equitable across different levels of the industry [3]. - Li argues that for a sustainable ecosystem, the value generated by models and applications must significantly exceed that of the underlying chips [3]. Group 4: Confidence in AI in China - Despite the global concerns about an AI bubble, analysts in China maintain that the domestic AI industry has not reached a bubble stage, attributing strong investments to the robust financial health of tech giants [4]. - The real challenge in the AI sector is identified as a shortage of computing power rather than an oversupply, indicating ongoing growth potential [4]. - 360 Group's chairman Zhou Hongyi believes that the discourse around AI bubbles serves to refocus the industry on its core values, suggesting that while some companies may fail, the true winners will emerge post-bubble [4]. Group 5: Perspectives on AI Investment - Alibaba's chairman Joe Tsai acknowledges the possibility of a financial bubble in AI but asserts the technology itself is reliable, drawing parallels to the internet bubble where strong companies emerged stronger post-crisis [5]. - Concerns about "pseudo-demand" driven by capital enthusiasm are raised, particularly in sectors like embodied intelligence, where real-world applicability remains uncertain [5].

北京时间12月12日，博通发布了截至11月2日的2025财年第四财季及全年财报。凭借其AI半导体相关营收同比增长74%的爆炸性表现，公司核心业绩营收 和净利润双超预期。 作为AI芯片产业链中最重要的公司，博通就是晴雨表的存在。 两个原因：网络解决方案直接对应AI基础设施投资，比如Tomahawk交换机的增长，而ASIC代工部门，直接反映硅谷下场自研芯片的信号。 所以，这份"硬核"财报如同马斯克的火箭发射一样，在盘后交易中经历了先冲高后回落的剧烈震荡——一度涨逾3%，但因CEO陈福阳在电话会议中拒绝 对2026财年AI收入提供明确指引，导致股价盘后涨转跌4.47%，至388.20美元。 所以，超预期的业绩相当于"扫雷"成功，不过市场在为持续的增长鼓掌的同时，又在质疑：陈福阳打造的这台"利润机器"，在高估值和对少数巨头客户的 重度依赖下，能否持续运转？ 01 营收与净利润双超华尔街预期 | | | | GAAP | | | | Non-GAAP | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (Dollars in millions, e ...

转自：证券时报 人民财讯12月12日电，兴业证券研报称，美股估值在历史高位，风险溢价持续低位，在AI泡沫论的担 忧下，美股科技股行情2026年的波动性将加大：1）当前标普500估值处于历史高位，风险溢价处于历史 低位，但在财政与货币"双宽"政策托底，叠加AI宏大叙事带来的全要素生产率提升预期下，大幅杀估值 的概率也较小。2）但是当前的低风险溢价率、高估值体系本质上建立在"宽松政策预期—较高增长预期 —科技创新溢价"三要素之上，其中任何一环出现扰动，都可能引发市场对风险溢价的阶段性重估。特 别是如果美联储超预期降息，2026年下半年需要警惕出现美国通胀恶化的新共识，从而带动风险溢价回 升。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - US stocks - Overweight [34] - European stocks - Equal - weight [35] - Chinese A - shares - Equal - weight [36] - Hong Kong stocks - Overweight [39] - Japan - Equal - weight [40] - Indian market - Overweight [42] 2. Core Views of the Report - The global stock market in November was generally poor due to insufficient liquidity and the US AI bubble theory. Tech - heavy indices underperformed their respective blue - chip indices. Different regions' stock markets had their own influencing factors, and investment ratings were adjusted based on various factors such as liquidity, interest rate expectations, and corporate earnings [31][33][34] - In the bond market, different regions and types of bonds had different performances in November. The US bond market was mainly influenced by "interest - rate cut games," the Japanese bond yield rose due to economic stimulus plans and inflation expectations, and the Chinese bond market lacked a clear direction [55][59] - The foreign exchange market was affected by central bank policies and interest - rate expectations. The US dollar index was volatile, the yen was weak, and the RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar [63][64] - In the commodity market, gold rose significantly, oil was weak, and copper was in a volatile state, each affected by supply - demand relationships, interest - rate expectations, and geopolitical factors [68] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overseas Macroeconomics 3.1.1 US Macroeconomic Review - ADP employment in November decreased by 32,000 jobs, the largest decline since March 2023, indicating a potential 25bp interest - rate cut by the Fed in December [9] - In September, PCE and core PCE inflation data provided support for an interest - rate cut [11] - The November Michigan consumer confidence index was at a low level, which may affect economic recovery [16] - The November manufacturing PMI was in the expansion range but lower than expected, and future factory output expansion may slow down [17] 3.2 Domestic Macroeconomics 3.2.1 Chinese Macroeconomic Review - In October, consumption growth slowed down, affected by car and home - appliance sales [21] - Exports decreased in October, while imports increased. The overall import - export volume in the first 10 months increased [21] - From January to October, fixed - asset investment declined, especially in the manufacturing sector [21] - In October, credit was weak, especially on the household side [21] - Industrial production in October was affected by multiple factors, but equipment and high - tech manufacturing showed good growth [24] - In October, CPI and PPI showed certain trends, and core inflation continued to rise [24] - From January to October, real - estate investment and sales declined, and policy effects were limited [24] 3.3 Macroeconomic Analysis 3.3.1 November Global Central Bank Policy Review - The Bank of England maintained its benchmark interest rate, with divided views among committee members, related to the upcoming fiscal budget [27] - The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the cash rate unchanged due to rising inflation and uncertain economic prospects [27] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut the official cash rate due to high unemployment [27] 3.4 November Major Stock Market Review and Outlook 3.4.1 Global Stock Market Performance - The global stock market in November was generally poor, affected by liquidity and the AI bubble theory. Tech - heavy indices underperformed [31][33] 3.4.2 Regional Stock Market Analysis - US stocks: Despite short - term challenges, they are maintained at an overweight rating due to expected liquidity improvement, interest - rate cut expectations, and new AI narratives [34] - European stocks: They are maintained at an equal - weight rating, affected by multiple factors such as central bank policies and geopolitical issues [35] - Chinese A - shares: Maintained at an equal - weight rating, with policy, capital, and structural opportunities as key points [36] - Hong Kong stocks: Upgraded to an overweight rating due to expected profit improvement, attractive valuations, and improved liquidity [39] - Japan: Maintained at an equal - weight rating, with interest - rate hike expectations and government stimulus policies as influencing factors [40] - Indian market: Upgraded to an overweight rating due to central bank support, potential trade agreements, and reasonable valuations [41] 3.5 November Chinese Offshore Debt Market Review and Outlook 3.5.1 Primary Market - In November, 70 bonds were issued in the primary market of Chinese offshore debt, including 23 US - dollar bonds worth $10.21 billion and 47 offshore RMB bonds worth 82.35 billion RMB. Issuance increased compared to the previous month but was lower than the same period last year for US - dollar bonds [47] 3.5.2 Secondary Market - As of November 30, the Markit iBoxx Chinese US - dollar investment - grade bond index rose, while the high - yield bond index fell. Different sectors such as real estate, urban investment, and finance also had different performance trends [50][52] 3.6 November Overseas Bond Market Performance Review and Outlook 3.6.1 November Major Bond Market Performance - Different bond indices in the US, Europe, Asia, etc., had different performance trends in November, with yields and returns varying [55] 3.6.2 Regional Bond Market Analysis - US: The bond market was affected by "interest - rate cut games," and yields showed a "first - up - then - down" trend [59] - Japan: Bond yields rose due to economic stimulus plans and inflation expectations [59] - China: The bond market lacked a clear direction, but future sentiment may improve [59] 3.7 November Foreign Exchange Market Performance Review and Outlook - The US dollar index was volatile, affected by Fed officials' views on interest - rate cuts. The yen was weak, and the RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar [63][64] 3.8 November Commodity Market Performance Review and Outlook - Gold rose significantly, driven by interest - rate cut expectations and central bank gold purchases. Oil was weak due to oversupply concerns, and copper was volatile due to supply and demand factors [68] 3.9 This Month's Selected Funds - Various types of funds, including money - market funds, bond funds, and stock funds from different regions, are presented with their performance data [70]