Market Overview - In December 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index experienced a rebound, closing at 3968.84 points, up 2.06% from the end of November 2025. The average daily trading volume decreased by 4.1% to 774.1 billion yuan [5][6]. - The CSI 300 Index also rebounded in December, closing at 4629.94 points, with a 2.28% increase. The average daily trading volume fell by 8% to 426.5 billion yuan [5][6]. January Market Analysis and Outlook Fundamental Drivers - The PMI index returned to the expansion zone in December 2025, with a manufacturing PMI of 50.1%, indicating a marginal improvement in the economic fundamentals after nine months [7]. Equity Risk Premium - The equity risk premium for the CSI 300 Index fell to 5.57 at the end of December, ending a two-month upward trend. This suggests potential for further decline in risk premium, contingent on clear signals of fundamental improvement [9]. Market Profitability - The number of stocks with gains exceeding 20% increased to 357 in December, a 64% rise from the previous month, indicating a resurgence in market profitability [11]. Volume-Price Relationship - The relationship between volume and price remains crucial for sustaining upward trends, as both experienced a rebound in December despite lower trading volumes [13]. Average Transaction Price - The average transaction price on the Shanghai Stock Exchange reached a new high of 16.58 yuan per share, influenced by the listing of high-priced new stocks [15]. Major Market Index Predictions Shanghai Composite Index - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to continue its rebound, fluctuating around the 60-day moving average, with significant support established at previous market highs [17]. CSI 300 Index - The CSI 300 Index is also anticipated to challenge previous highs, with resistance levels identified at the range of the second half of 2021 [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at high levels [2]. - The market sentiment affects the rebar and hot - rolled coil plates, with their prices showing a strong - side oscillation [2]. - The market sentiment drives up the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, and their prices are expected to rise in an oscillatory manner [2]. - Due to event fermentation, coke and coking coal prices will oscillate at high levels [2]. - Log prices will fluctuate repeatedly [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data** - The previous day's closing price of iron ore futures was 828.0 yuan/ton, up 27.0 yuan/ton or 3.37%. The previous day's position was 666,581 lots, an increase of 25,713 lots [5]. - Imported ore prices increased, with the price of Carajás fines (65%) rising by 18.0 yuan/ton to 910.0 yuan/ton, and PB fines (61.5%) rising by 19.0 yuan/ton to 832.0 yuan/ton [5]. - Some domestic ore prices remained unchanged, such as Langna (66%) at 972.0 yuan/ton and Laiwu (65%) at 890.0 yuan/ton [5]. - The basis and spread of iron ore futures showed different degrees of change [5]. - **Macro and Industry News** - China's December RatingDog Composite PMI was 51.3, exceeding the 50.0 boom - bust line and slightly higher than November's 51.2, indicating further growth in the total production and operation volume of Chinese enterprises at the end of 2025 [6]. - **Trend Intensity** - The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral trend [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil Plates - **Fundamental Data** - For rebar RB2605, the previous day's closing price was 3,187 yuan/ton, up 89 yuan/ton or 2.87%, and the trading volume was 1,937,222 lots, with a position of 1,741,383 lots, an increase of 178,435 lots [9]. - For hot - rolled coil plate HC2605, the previous day's closing price was 3,332 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton or 2.52%, and the trading volume was 943,506 lots, with a position of 1,377,887 lots, an increase of 103,802 lots [9]. - Spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil plates in various regions increased, and the basis and spread of futures also changed [9]. - **Macro and Industry News** - In late December, the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities was 721 million tons, a decrease of 27 million tons or 3.6% compared with the previous period [10]. - On December 31st, according to Steel Union's weekly data, the output of rebar increased by 3.83 million tons, and that of hot - rolled coils increased by 10.97 million tons [11]. - **Trend Intensity** - The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coil plates is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [11]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data** - The spot price of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5,350 yuan/ton, up 70.0 yuan/ton, and the spot price of silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia was 5,650 yuan/ton, up 20.0 yuan/ton [14]. - The price of manganese ore Mn44 block was 43.0 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of semi - coke small materials in Shenmu was 760 yuan/ton [14]. - The basis, near - far month spread, and cross - variety spread of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese showed different degrees of change [14]. - **Macro and Industry News** - According to Ferrous Metals Online, on January 6th, the prices of different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in various regions increased, and the procurement prices and quantities of some steel mills also changed [15]. - There was news about the possible implementation of differential electricity prices for restricted ferroalloy enterprises in Shaanxi from July 1, 2026 [16]. - **Trend Intensity** - The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [16]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data** - The previous day's closing price of coking coal futures JM2605 was 1,164 yuan/ton, up 6.2%, and the closing price of coke futures J2605 was 1,773 yuan/ton, up 7.1% [18]. - Spot prices of coking coal and coke remained unchanged, and the basis and spread of futures changed [18]. - **Macro and Industry News** - On January 7th, CCI's metallurgical coal index showed that the prices of different types of coking coal remained stable [18]. - According to Mysteel's coal - coke data, the daily output of raw coal from 523 coking coal sample mines increased, and the number of newly - shut - down and re - opened mines changed [18]. - **Trend Intensity** - The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [20]. Logs - **Fundamental Data** - The closing price, trading volume, and position of log futures contracts showed different degrees of change, and the price of log spot markets in various regions remained stable [22]. - The basis and spread of log futures also changed [22]. - **Macro and Industry News** - China's December RatingDog Composite PMI was 51.3, exceeding the 50.0 boom - bust line and slightly higher than November's 51.2, indicating further growth in the total production and operation volume of Chinese enterprises at the end of 2025 [24]. - **Trend Intensity** - The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral trend [24].

Market Insights - In December 2025, private sector employment in the US increased by 41,000, reversing the previous month's decline but falling short of market expectations [1][11] - The US ISM Services PMI rose by 1.8 points to 54.4 in December 2025, marking the highest level since October 2024, with new orders increasing at the fastest rate since September 2024 [1][11] - The unemployment rate in Germany reached 6.3% in December 2025, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous year, marking the third consecutive year of rising unemployment [2][12] Economic Indicators - The Eurozone's inflation rate for December 2025 was reported at 2.0%, down from 2.1% in November, aligning with the European Central Bank's target [2][12] - In December 2025, the number of job vacancies in the US fell to 7.146 million, significantly below the expected 7.6 million, the lowest level since September 2024 [1][11] Commodity and Financial Markets - COMEX gold futures fell by 0.65% to $4,467.10 per ounce, while silver futures dropped by 3.77% to $77.98 per ounce [8][17] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 466.00 points, closing at 48,996.08, a decline of 0.94%, while the S&P 500 fell by 23.89 points to 6,920.93, a drop of 0.34% [16] - The DAX index in Frankfurt surpassed 25,000 points for the first time, reaching a historical high, attributed to government infrastructure investments and a recent increase in risk appetite in European and global markets [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The overall index is mainly dragged down by the accelerating decline of inventory. Zinc prices have corrected, the Shanghai-London ratio has rebounded, and the export window may close again. On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually entering the off-season, with the real estate sector being a drag, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors also weakening. However, there are some bright spots in areas such as the automotive sector supported by policies. The downstream market mainly purchases on demand at low prices. Recently, zinc prices have been fluctuating and adjusting, with dull trading and on-demand purchases. The spot premium is relatively high and stable, and domestic inventory continues to decline. The accumulation of LME zinc inventory has slowed down, and the spot premium remains at a low level. Technically, with increasing positions and rising prices, the bullish sentiment has strengthened, but there is resistance at the upper edge of the upward channel. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will adjust strongly, and attention should be paid to the range of 24,100-24,400 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 24,295 yuan/ton, up 475 yuan; the 02-03 month contract spread is -50 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The LME three-month zinc quotation is 3,195 US dollars/ton, up 68 US dollars. The total position of Shanghai zinc is 230,243 lots, up 22,571 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 3,432 lots, up 3,069 lots. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt is 0 tons, unchanged. The SHFE inventory is 69,793 tons, down 3,170 tons; the LME inventory is 105,850 tons, down 475 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network is 24,340 yuan/ton, up 370 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals Market is 24,630 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan. The basis of the ZN main contract is 45 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan; the LME zinc cash-to-three-month spread is -36.3 US dollars/ton, down 0.05 US dollars. The ex-factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 20,850 yuan/ton, up 570 yuan; the price of 85%-86% broken zinc in Shanghai is 16,550 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply-demand balance is -35,700 tons, down 14,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply-demand balance is 20,300 tons, down 27,600 tons. The global zinc mine production is 1.0666 million tons, down 31,000 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 665,000 tons, up 40,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume is 340,900 tons, down 164,500 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 18,836.76 tons, down 3,840.75 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 8,518.67 tons, up 6,040.84 tons. The social inventory of zinc is 113,900 tons, up 5,000 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, up 20,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.42 million tons, up 140,000 tons. The new housing construction area is 534.567 million square meters, up 43.9531 million square meters; the housing completion area is 348.61 million square meters, up 37.3212 million square meters. The automobile production is 3.519 million vehicles, up 240,000 vehicles; the air conditioner production is 14.204 million units, down 3.8908 million units [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at-the-money call options on zinc is 19.72%, down 0.36 percentage points; the implied volatility of at-the-money put options on zinc is 19.72%, down 0.36 percentage points. The 20-day historical volatility of at-the-money options on zinc is 17.29%, up 3.34 percentage points; the 60-day historical volatility of at-the-money options on zinc is 11.81%, up 0.13 percentage points [3] 3.7 Industry News - In December 2025, China's RatingDog Services PMI was 52, maintaining expansion, but new export orders fell back into contraction. Li Qiang emphasized strengthening the dominant position of enterprises in innovation and promoting the accelerated iteration and upgrading of new technologies and products such as robots and drones in expanded applications. Trump warned Venezuela's "interim president" and reiterated the need for Greenland. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI in December unexpectedly contracted the most since 2024, dragged down by inventory [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the document. Core Views of the Report - China's service industry activities maintained expansion in December 2025, but new export orders re - entered the contraction zone. Enterprises' optimism about the business outlook for the next year improved to the highest in 9 months [7][28]. - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to rise due to concerns about supply contraction and positive demand expectations. The demand side is supported by policies and better - than - expected demand in the traditional off - season, while the supply side is affected by potential supply tightening policies [8]. - It is not advisable to short caustic soda. Although the short - term decline due to delivery factors is limited, the spot market still faces challenges such as low - price warehouse receipts, and obvious rebounds are difficult without production cuts [10][92]. - In the short term, butadiene and butadiene rubber may run strongly, but the upside space is gradually narrowing. The cost of synthetic rubber is pushed up by butadiene, and the apparent demand for butadiene rubber remains high [13]. - Aluminum prices may continue to rise. Although the spot market is weak, the basis may be repaired, and there is potential for upward movement in the first quarter, especially if there is a spring rally in the equity market [14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - Gold: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded. The prices of domestic and foreign gold futures and spot have shown different trends, and the trading volume and positions have also changed. The geopolitical situation, such as the arrest of Venezuelan President Maduro, has affected the market [21]. - Silver: It is consolidating at a high level. The prices of domestic and foreign silver futures and spot have fluctuated, and the trading volume and positions have changed accordingly [21]. Base Metals - Copper: The sentiment for going long is strong, and the price continues to rise. The prices of domestic and foreign copper futures have increased, and the trading volume and positions have changed. Geopolitical risks and macro - economic data have influenced the market [24]. - Zinc: It is oscillating strongly. The prices of domestic and foreign zinc futures have shown an upward trend, and the inventory has decreased, supporting the price [27]. - Lead: The inventory has decreased, supporting the price. The prices of domestic and foreign lead futures have changed slightly, and the inventory decline has provided some support [30]. - Tin: It is oscillating within a range. The prices of domestic and foreign tin futures have increased, and the trading volume and positions have changed [34]. - Aluminum: It continues to make up for losses. The prices of domestic and foreign aluminum futures have risen, and the spot market is weak but may be repaired [37]. - Alumina: It has declined slightly. The price of alumina futures has decreased, and the market is affected by supply and demand factors [37]. - Cast aluminum alloy: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. The price of cast aluminum alloy is related to the price of electrolytic aluminum [37]. - Platinum: It is oscillating upward. The prices of platinum futures and spot have increased, and the trading volume and positions have changed [43]. - Palladium: It is oscillating within a range. The prices of palladium futures and spot have fluctuated, and the trading volume and positions have changed [43]. - Nickel: There is a game between real - world pressure and cycle - shift narratives, with wide - range oscillations. The price of nickel futures is affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand and policies [45]. - Stainless steel: The real - world fundamentals are dragging down the market, and the market is mainly gambling on Indonesian policies. The price of stainless steel futures is affected by domestic and foreign policies and supply - demand relationships [45]. Energy and Chemicals - Lithium carbonate: Concerns about supply contraction and positive demand expectations have led to an upward shift in the price center. The prices of lithium carbonate futures and spot have increased, and the market is affected by policies and demand [49]. - Industrial silicon: The fundamental situation is weak. The price of industrial silicon futures has declined, and the market is facing challenges in supply and demand [52]. - Polysilicon: It is oscillating at a high level, and attention should be paid to the impact of news. The price of polysilicon futures is affected by supply - demand and news factors [52]. - Iron ore: It is fluctuating at a high level. The price of iron ore futures has increased slightly, and the market is affected by supply - demand and macro - economic factors [56]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: The expectation of raw material winter storage and resumption of production may compress steel mill profits. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures have declined slightly, and the market is affected by supply - demand and policies [60]. - Ferrosilicon: The settlement electricity price has decreased, and the price is oscillating weakly. The price of ferrosilicon futures has declined, and the market is affected by electricity prices and supply - demand [64]. - Manganese silicon: After the holiday, the inquiry sentiment is strong, waiting for the steel procurement to be finalized. The price of manganese silicon futures has declined, and the market is waiting for steel procurement information [64]. - Coke and coking coal: Contradictions are accumulating, and they are oscillating weakly. The prices of coke and coking coal futures have declined, and the market is affected by supply - demand and environmental protection policies [67]. - Logs: They are oscillating at a low level. The prices of log futures have declined slightly, and the market is affected by supply - demand and seasonal factors [72]. - p - Xylene (PX), PTA, and MEG: PX and PTA are in a high - level oscillating market supported by cost. MEG has limited upside space and still faces pressure in the medium term. The prices of PX, PTA, and MEG futures have declined, and the market is affected by cost and supply - demand [75]. - Rubber: It is oscillating. The price of rubber futures has increased slightly, and the market is affected by supply - demand and inventory factors [80]. - Synthetic rubber: The short - term center has shifted upward. The price of synthetic rubber futures has increased, and the market is affected by cost and demand [83]. - LLDPE: The upstream inventory has been transferred, and the basis has strengthened. The price of LLDPE futures has declined slightly, and the market is affected by inventory transfer and geopolitical factors [86]. - PP: Multiple PDH units are planned to be overhauled in January, and the basis has strengthened. The price of PP futures has declined slightly, and the market is affected by production overhauls and cost factors [88]. - Caustic soda: It is not advisable to short. The price of caustic soda futures has declined, and the market is affected by delivery factors and supply - demand fundamentals [90][92]. - Pulp: It is oscillating widely. The price of pulp futures has declined slightly, and the market is affected by supply - demand and inventory factors [97]. - Glass: The price of the original sheet is stable. The price of glass futures has declined slightly, and the market is affected by supply - demand and macro - economic factors [100]. - Methanol: It is expected to be strong in the short term. The price of methanol futures has declined slightly, and the market is affected by geopolitical factors and inventory expectations [104][107]. - Urea: The oscillation center has shifted upward. The price of urea futures has increased, and the market is affected by supply - demand and expectations of agricultural demand [108][109]. - Styrene: It is oscillating in the short term. The price of styrene futures has declined, and the market is affected by valuation and supply - demand factors [111][112]. - Soda ash: The spot market has changed little. The price of soda ash futures has declined, and the market is affected by supply - demand and production start - up rates [117]. - LPG: Geopolitical factors are disturbing the cost, and attention should be paid to the realization of downward drivers. The price of LPG futures has increased slightly, and the market is affected by geopolitical and supply - demand factors [120]. - Propylene: The upward and downward drivers are limited, and the spot trend is stabilizing. The price of propylene futures has declined slightly, and the market is affected by supply - demand and production start - up rates [121]. - PVC: It is strong in the short term and oscillating in the medium term. The price of PVC futures has declined slightly, and the market is affected by supply - demand and cost factors [130]. - Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil: The upward trend of fuel oil has paused, and there is support below. Low - sulfur fuel oil is oscillating narrowly. The prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures have declined, and the market is affected by supply - demand and international oil prices [133]. Shipping and Transportation - Container Freight Index (European Line): Attention should be paid to the opening guidance. The price of the container freight index futures has increased, and the market is affected by shipping capacity, freight rates, and geopolitical factors [135]. Agricultural Products - Short - fiber and bottle - chip: They are in a short - term oscillating market. The prices of short - fiber and bottle - chip futures have declined, and the market is affected by supply - demand and raw material prices [148]. - Offset - printing paper: It is advisable to wait and see. The price of offset - printing paper futures has increased slightly, and the market is affected by supply - demand and cost factors [151]. - Pure benzene: It is oscillating mainly in the short term. The price of pure benzene futures has declined, and the market is affected by inventory and supply - demand factors [155]. - Palm oil and soybean oil: Palm oil has weak fundamental drivers, and attention should be paid to the spill - over effect of crude oil fluctuations. Soybean oil is mainly in a unilateral range, and attention should be paid to the spread opportunities. The prices of palm oil and soybean oil futures have declined slightly, and the market is affected by supply - demand and international market factors [159]. - Soybean meal and soybeans: Soybean meal is oscillating strongly, and soybeans are rebounding and oscillating. The prices of soybean meal and soybean futures have changed, and the market is affected by international soybean prices and supply - demand [164]. - Corn: Attention should be paid to the spot market. The price of corn futures has declined slightly, and the market is affected by supply - demand and spot prices [168]. - Sugar: It is mainly in a weak - running state. The price of sugar futures has declined, and the market is affected by domestic and international production, consumption, and import policies [171]. - Cotton: It is maintaining a strong - oscillating trend. The price of cotton futures has increased, and the market is affected by domestic and international supply - demand and spot prices [176]. - Eggs: They are oscillating and adjusting. The price of egg futures has increased, and the market is affected by supply - demand and feed prices [181]. - Hogs: The weakness is emerging. The price of hog futures has declined slightly, and the market is affected by supply - demand and inventory factors [186]. - Peanuts: They are oscillating. The price of peanut futures has declined, and the market is affected by supply - demand and spot prices [190].

Group 1 - The PMI index has returned to the expansion zone, which is favorable for the spring market trend. The manufacturing PMI for December is reported at 50.1%, up from the previous value of 49.2%. This marks the first return to the expansion zone in nine months, indicating a marginal improvement in the economic fundamentals [1] - On Monday, both stock markets opened high and continued to rise, with trading volume increasing significantly. The Shanghai Composite Index closed near its daily high, marking the twelfth consecutive bullish day. The Shenzhen Component Index outperformed, surpassing the high from early October last year. Total trading volume exceeded 2.5 trillion yuan, a substantial increase from the previous trading day [1] - Market hotspots were primarily concentrated in the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and pharmaceutical sectors, with a leading performance from the technology sector. The Shanghai Composite Index has formed a small double bottom pattern and is currently challenging previous high points [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - SCFIS continues to rise, spot freight rates maintain an upward trend, and the market shows a strong and volatile pattern. Attention should be paid to the freight rate trend in February [2] - The impact of the US raid on Venezuela on the market is expected to be limited. The premium space caused by weather and congestion is also limited. The current core factor is the direction of spot freight rates [4] - The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [4] - After the holiday, the freight rates of various shipping companies have increased slightly, which supports the market to some extent, but there are differences in the subsequent increase. The overall market is strongly volatile. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Freight Rate Indexes - On January 5, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1795.83 points, up 3.1% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1250.12 points, down 3.9% from the previous period [3] - On January 2, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1296.7 points, up 10.40% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1258.31 points, up 9.96% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1743.56 points, up 38.94% from the previous period [3] - On December 26, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1656.32 points, up 103.4 points from the previous period; the European - line price was 1690 USD/TEU, up 10.24% from the previous period; the US - West route price was 2188 USD/FEU, up 9.84% from the previous period [3] - On December 26, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1124.73 points, up 0.6% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1473.90 points, up 0.2% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 792.06 points, down 0.9% from the previous period [3] 3.2 Economic Data - The preliminary value of the eurozone's December composite PMI was 51.9, with an expected value of 52.6 and a previous value of 52.8. The preliminary value of the services PMI was 52.6, lower than the market - expected 53.3, indicating a weakening growth momentum in the service sector [3] - The eurozone's December Sentix investor confidence index was -6.2, with an expected value of -7 and a previous value of -7.4 [3] - In November, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the business climate improved [4] - In October, the composite PMI output index was 49.7, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and it fell below the boom - bust line for the first time since 2023 [4] - The preliminary value of the US December S&P Global services PMI was 52.9, a six - month low, with an expected value of 54 and a previous value of 54.1. The preliminary value of the US December S&P Global composite PMI was 53, with an expected value of 53.9 and a previous value of 54.2 [4] 3.3 Market Conditions of the Main Contract - On January 5, the main contract 2602 closed at 1855.5, with a gain of 1.48%, a trading volume of 22,900 lots, and an open interest of 26,000 lots, an increase of 1,916 lots from the previous day [4] 3.4 Investment Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract has reached a new high. It has been recommended to take all profits. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and not to add more positions [5] - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international geopolitical turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic and has large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [5] - Long - term strategy: It has been recommended to take profits when each contract reaches a high. Wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back and then judge the subsequent direction [5] 3.5 Contract Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 18% [5] - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 28% [5] - The daily opening position limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides daily research on various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., and gives corresponding trend judgments and analysis based on their fundamentals and market news [2]. - The overall market is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical events, macro - economic data, and supply - demand relationships. For example, the situation in Venezuela has an impact on the prices of gold, copper, and other commodities [5][8]. Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded. The prices of domestic and foreign gold futures and spot have different trends. The trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The geopolitical event of the US airstrike in Venezuela has supported the price of gold [2][5]. - **Silver**: It is in a high - level consolidation. The prices of domestic and foreign silver futures and spot have different trends. The trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed [2][5]. - **Platinum**: It is oscillating upwards. The prices of platinum futures and spot have increased, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed [25][27]. - **Palladium**: It is in a range - bound oscillation. The prices of palladium futures and spot have increased, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed [25][27]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The sentiment of going long is strong, and the price has been rising continuously. The prices of domestic and foreign copper futures have increased, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. Geopolitical risks and industry news such as production capacity expansion and labor - contract negotiations have an impact on the price [2][8]. - **Zinc**: It is oscillating strongly. The prices of domestic and foreign zinc futures have increased, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. Macroeconomic data and industry news have affected the price [2][11]. - **Lead**: The reduction in inventory supports the price. The prices of domestic and foreign lead futures have different trends, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. Geopolitical events and industry news have affected the price [2][14]. - **Tin**: It is oscillating within a range. The prices of domestic and foreign tin futures have increased, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. Macro - and industry news have an impact on the price [2][18]. - **Aluminum**: It continues to make up for losses. The prices of aluminum futures and spot have increased, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. Macroeconomic data and industry news have affected the price [2][21]. - **Alumina**: It has a slight decline. The prices of alumina futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed [2][21]. - **Nickel**: There is a game between the real - world pressure and the narrative of the cycle shift, with a wide - range oscillation. The prices of nickel futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. Industry news such as policy restrictions in Indonesia has an impact on the price [2][29]. - **Stainless steel**: The real - world fundamentals are dragging down, and the market is mainly gambling on Indonesian policies. The prices of stainless - steel futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed [2][29]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil - related (implied)**: The geopolitical situation in Venezuela and other regions has affected the price expectations of crude oil - related products, which in turn has an impact on the prices of downstream products [29][64]. - **PTA**: It is in a high - level oscillating market with cost support. The prices of PTA futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of the upstream and downstream industries and the start - up rate of production facilities have an impact on the price [2][59][64]. - **MEG**: The upside space is limited, and there is still pressure in the medium term. The prices of MEG futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of the upstream and downstream industries and the start - up rate of production facilities have an impact on the price [2][59][65]. - **Rubber**: It is oscillating. The prices of rubber futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The inventory and production situation have an impact on the price [2][66]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The short - term center has shifted upwards. The prices of synthetic - rubber futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of raw materials and the start - up rate of production facilities have an impact on the price [2][69]. - **LLDPE**: The upstream inventory has been transferred, and the basis has strengthened. The prices of LLDPE futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of raw materials and the start - up rate of production facilities have an impact on the price [2][72]. - **PP**: Multiple PDH units are planned to be overhauled in January, and the basis has strengthened. The prices of PP futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of raw materials and the start - up rate of production facilities have an impact on the price [2][74]. - **Caustic Soda**: It is not advisable to chase short. The price of caustic - soda futures has changed, and the spot market is not optimistic. The high - production and high - inventory pattern and the demand situation have an impact on the price [2][76]. - **Paper Pulp**: It is in a wide - range oscillation. The prices of paper - pulp futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The inventory and demand situation have an impact on the price [2][81]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The prices of glass futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The market supply and demand and the sales situation have an impact on the price [2][86]. - **Methanol**: It is strong in the short term. The prices of methanol futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. Geopolitical events and the supply and demand of the upstream and downstream industries have an impact on the price [2][90]. - **Urea**: The oscillation center has shifted upwards. The prices of urea futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The inventory and demand situation have an impact on the price [2][95]. - **Styrene**: It is in a short - term oscillation. The prices of styrene futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of the upstream and downstream industries and the inventory situation have an impact on the price [2][99]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. The prices of soda - ash futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of the upstream and downstream industries have an impact on the price [2][103]. - **LPG**: Geopolitical factors have disturbed the cost, and attention should be paid to the realization of the downward drive. The prices of LPG futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of the upstream and downstream industries and the price of CP paper have an impact on the price [2][109]. - **Propylene**: The upward and downward drives are limited, and the spot trend has stabilized. The prices of propylene futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of the upstream and downstream industries and the start - up rate of production facilities have an impact on the price [2][110]. - **PVC**: It is strong in the short term and oscillating in the medium term. The prices of PVC futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The high - production and high - inventory pattern and the demand situation have an impact on the price [2][118]. - **Fuel Oil**: The upward trend has paused, and there is support at the bottom. The prices of fuel - oil futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of the upstream and downstream industries and the international market situation have an impact on the price [2][123]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is in a narrow - range oscillation, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable. The prices of low - sulfur fuel - oil futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of the upstream and downstream industries and the international market situation have an impact on the price [2][123]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The fundamental driving force is not strong, and attention should be paid to the spill - over effect of crude - oil fluctuations. The prices of palm - oil futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The inventory, production, and export situation have an impact on the price [2][150]. - **Soybean Oil**: The unilateral price is in a range, and attention should be paid to the price - difference opportunities between months. The prices of soybean - oil futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The inventory, production, and export situation have an impact on the price [2][150]. - **Soybean Meal**: The peripheral market has generally risen, and the Dalian soybean meal may follow the rebound. The prices of soybean - meal futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of the international and domestic markets and the weather in South America have an impact on the price [2][155]. - **Soybean**: It is in a rebound and oscillation. The prices of soybean futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of the international and domestic markets and the weather in South America have an impact on the price [2][155]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot price. The prices of corn futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of the domestic and international markets and the import situation have an impact on the price [2][158]. - **Sugar**: It is mainly in a weak operation. The prices of sugar futures and spot have changed. The production, consumption, and import situation at home and abroad have an impact on the price [2][162]. - **Cotton**: It maintains an oscillating and strong trend. The prices of cotton futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of the domestic and international markets and the purchase situation of textile enterprises have an impact on the price [2][167]. - **Eggs**: It is in an oscillating adjustment. The prices of egg futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of the upstream and downstream industries and the price of feed have an impact on the price [2][172]. - **Hogs**: The weakness is emerging. The prices of hog futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of the market and the inventory of warehouse receipts have an impact on the price [2][175]. - **Peanuts**: It is in an oscillating operation. The prices of peanut futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of the market and the purchase situation have an impact on the price [2][181]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Attention should be paid to the cabin - opening guidance. The prices of container - freight - index futures have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The shipping capacity, price adjustment of shipping companies, and geopolitical situation have an impact on the price [2][125].

Core Viewpoint - The overall economic sentiment in China is improving, as indicated by the rise in manufacturing and non-manufacturing indices, suggesting a recovery in economic activity and market confidence [1][2][4]. Manufacturing Sector - In December 2025, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reached 50.1%, marking its first entry into the expansion zone since April 2025, with 16 out of 21 surveyed industries showing improvement [1][2]. - The New Orders Index rose to 50.8%, increasing by 1.6 percentage points, indicating a release of market demand after five months below 50% [2]. - The Production Index increased to 51.7%, up by 1.7 percentage points, reflecting a positive expansion in manufacturing activities [2]. - High-tech manufacturing PMI was reported at 52.5%, up by 2.4 percentage points, indicating a favorable growth trend [2]. - Large enterprises' PMI reached 50.8%, up by 1.5 percentage points, with significant increases in both production and new orders indices [3]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index rose to 50.2%, up by 0.7 percentage points, indicating an improvement in non-manufacturing activities [4]. - The Business Activity Expectation Index for non-manufacturing reached 56.5%, reflecting a continuous upward trend and strong market expectations [4]. - The construction sector showed significant improvement, with the Business Activity Index at 52.8%, up by 3.2 percentage points, driven by seasonal factors and project acceleration [4]. Economic Outlook - Experts indicate that the combination of effective economic policies and market dynamics is expected to lead to steady growth in the manufacturing sector in 2026, with both qualitative and quantitative improvements anticipated [3][5].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a recovery in the overall industry, with consumer goods leading the major categories [1] Core Insights - The national PMI for December is 50.1, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.9 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 0, which is 1.4 percentage points higher than the recent average [1][3] - The production index has rebounded to 51.7, with a month-on-month increase of 1.7 percentage points, while the new orders index has risen to 50.8, up by 1.6 percentage points [4][9] - The highest absolute values among industries this month are in pharmaceuticals, clothing, transportation, and communication, while the highest month-on-month increases are seen in petroleum, clothing, and timber [1][3] Summary by Sections Manufacturing PMI - The manufacturing PMI index stands at 50.1, with 4 industries above 50 and 11 below [3] - The highest PMI is in the pharmaceutical manufacturing sector at 58.9, while the lowest is in general equipment manufacturing at 40.7 [3] New Orders Index - The new orders index is at 50.8, with 3 industries above 50 and 8 below [4] - The highest new orders index is also in pharmaceuticals at 62.5, while the lowest is in petroleum processing at 35.7 [5][6] Profit Trend Index - The profit trend index for manufacturing is -2.3, showing a month-on-month increase of 2.1 percentage points [7] - The highest profit trend index is in the automotive manufacturing sector at 9.3, while the lowest is in non-ferrous metal smelting at -25 [7][10] Production Index - The production index is at 51.7, with 5 industries above 50 and 9 below [9] - The highest production index is in the textile and apparel sector at 67.9, while the lowest is in general equipment manufacturing at 38.9 [9] Purchase Price Index - The purchase price index is at 53.1, down by 0.5 percentage points from last month [13] - The highest purchase price index is in non-ferrous metal smelting at 68.8, while the lowest is in petroleum processing at 32.1 [13][14] Finished Goods Inventory Index - The finished goods inventory index is at 48.2, with 4 industries above 50 and 10 below [17] - The highest inventory index is in pharmaceuticals at 55, while the lowest is in metal products at 31.3 [17] Export Orders Index - The export orders index is at 49, with 3 industries above 50 and 8 below [18] - The highest export orders index is in textiles at 62.5, while the lowest is in agricultural products at 33.3 [19][22]