Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint - The June PMI shows that the domestic prosperity level remains in an expansion state, which is beneficial to the stock market. The State Council Executive Meeting emphasizes strengthening the main position of enterprise technological innovation, which is expected to bring more benefits to growth - style technology stocks. The recent weakening of the US dollar index has also relieved the pressure on the RMB exchange rate. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Disk - **Contract Prices**: IF (2509) is 3894.2 (+4.8), IH (2509) is 2696.8 (+4.2), IC (2509) is 5756.6 (-14.0), IM (2509) is 6117.0 (-17.0). IF (2507) is 3921.0 (+6.0), IH (2507) is 2703.0 (+4.6), IC (2507) is 5856.6 (-15.4), IM (2507) is 6262.2 (-24.8) [2]. - **Contract Spreads**: IF - IH spread is 1218.0 (+2.4), IC - IF spread is 1935.6 (-20.8), etc. [2]. - **Season - to - Current Month Spreads**: IF when - season to current month is - 26.8 (-1.2), IH is - 6.2 (0.0), IC is - 100.0 (+3.4), IM is - 145.2 (+8.2) [2]. Futures Position - IF top 20 net position is - 30,725.00 (+104.0), IH is - 11,962.00 (-155.0), IC is - 10,395.00 (+7.0), IM is - 34,573.00 (-258.0) [2]. Spot Price - CSI 300 is 3943.68 (+0.9), SSE 50 is 2722.55 (+4.8), CSI 500 is 5892.95 (-41.7), CSI 1000 is 6309.48 (-64.3) [2]. Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume is 14,051.09 billion yuan (-914.22 billion), margin trading balance is 18,545.63 billion yuan. North - bound trading volume is 1318.02 billion yuan (-260.71 billion) [2]. - The proportion of rising stocks is 35.87% (-12.64%), Shibor is 1.365% (-0.002) [2]. Wind Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - All A - shares score is 4.00 (-1.60), technical aspect is 3.60 (-1.20), capital aspect is 4.40 (-1.90) [2]. Industry News - China's June official manufacturing PMI is 49.7, up 0.2 points from last month; non - manufacturing PMI is 50.5%, up 0.2 points; comprehensive PMI is 50.7%, up 0.3 points [2]. - A - share major indices generally declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated narrowly, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index weakened. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.61%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.13% [2]. Key Data to Focus On - On July 2, at 19:30, focus on US June Challenger job - cuts; at 20:15, focus on US June ADP employment [3]. - On July 3, at 20:30, focus on US June non - farm payrolls, unemployment rate, and labor participation rate [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract of Shanghai Copper fluctuates at a high level, with a decrease in open interest, a premium in the spot market, and a strengthening basis. The copper concentrate TC spot index continues to operate in the negative range, but the long - term contract TC has improved, and the tight supply of copper concentrates has eased. The supply is stable with a slight increase, but domestic supply has tightened due to increased export intentions. The demand is seasonally weak, leading to low trading activity in the spot market. Social inventory remains stable at a medium - low level. Overall, the fundamentals are in a situation of stable and slightly increasing supply and temporarily weak demand, and the copper ore supply is expected to improve. In the options market, the sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are above the 0 - axis with a converging red column. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Copper is 80,540 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 9,937 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 190 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai Copper is 223,122 lots, down 861 lots. The top 20 futures positions of Shanghai Copper are 5,895 lots, down 8,048 lots. The LME copper inventory is 91,250 tons, up 625 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 81,550 tons, down 19,264 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt of cathode copper is 25,097 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 80,990 yuan/ton, up 785 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 80,955 yuan/ton, up 710 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 49 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 30 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is 450 yuan/ton, up 885 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is 116.30 dollars/ton, down 65.39 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 239.52 million tons, down 50.98 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters is - 44.81 dollars/kiloton, down 0.03 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 71,250 yuan/metal ton, up 690 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 71,950 yuan/metal ton, up 690 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the north, it is 750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The output of refined copper is 125.40 million tons, and the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 430,000 tons, down 10,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 56,090 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 68,250 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 600 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 209.60 million tons, up 1.50 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 2,039.86 billion yuan, up 631.69 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 36,233.84 billion yuan, up 8,504.27 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,235,000,000 pieces, up 68,000,000 pieces [2]. 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Copper is 9.21%, down 0.15%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 9.43%, down 0.03%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money options is 15.91%, up 0.0168. The put - call ratio of at - the - money options is 1.68, up 0.0444 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - From January to May this year, the added value of large - scale light industry enterprises increased by 7% year - on - year, with an operating income of 9.27 trillion yuan. The retail sales of furniture products increased by 21.4% year - on - year, and that of household appliances and audio - visual equipment increased by 30.2% year - on - year. In June, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than that in May. In June, BYD's sales volume was 382,500 vehicles, up 11.9% year - on - year; Leapmotor's delivery volume was 48,006 vehicles, up more than 138% year - on - year; Seres' sales volume was 46,086 vehicles, up 4.44% year - on - year; Li Auto's delivery volume was 36,279 vehicles, down 24% year - on - year; XPeng Motors' delivery volume was 34,611 vehicles, up 224% year - on - year. Xiaomi Auto's delivery volume exceeded 25,000 vehicles, and NIO's delivery volume was 24,925 vehicles, up 17.5% year - on - year. The Fed Chairman Powell said that the Fed might adopt a more accommodative monetary policy without Trump's tariff policy. He did not rule out the possibility of a rate cut in July, and most Fed members expect another rate cut later this year. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI in June rose to 49, still in the contraction range for four consecutive months, with new orders decreasing for five consecutive months and the price - paid index approaching the highest level since June 2022, indicating a slight acceleration of inflation [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - Due to port congestion and shipping companies' intention to raise price centers in late July, short positions can consider full profit - taking. In the context of geopolitical conflicts, the game is difficult, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [1][3]. - The overall supply - demand situation has not changed significantly, but the SCFIS has continued to rise. The market should pay attention to negotiation results, tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - On June 30, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2123.24 points, up 9.6% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1619.19 points, down 22.3% from the previous period [1]. - On June 27, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1366.47 points, down 1.13% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1442.95 points, up 11.03% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1553.68 points, down 2.04% from the previous period [1]. - On June 27, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1861.51 points, down 8.08 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 2030 USD/TEU, up 10.63% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 2578 USD/FEU, down 7.00% from the previous period [1]. - On June 27, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1369.34 points, up 2.0% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1640.72 points, up 3.9% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 1212.09 points, down 3.6% from the previous period [1]. 3.2 Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in June was 49.4, with an expected value of 49.8 and a previous value of 49.4; the preliminary value of the service PMI was 50, a two - month high; the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 50.2, with an expected value of 50.5 and a previous value of 50.2; the Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2, with an expected value of - 6 and a previous value of - 8.1 [1]. - The Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in June was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May and the same as in April, returning above the critical point [1]. - The preliminary value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in June was 52, the same as in May and higher than the expected 51, the highest level since February; the preliminary value of the service PMI was 53.1, lower than the previous value of 53.7 and higher than the expected 52.9, a two - month low; the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 52.8, lower than the previous value of 53 and higher than the expected 52.1, a two - month low [1]. 3.3 Market Conditions and Strategy - On July 1, the main contract 2508 closed at 1904.9, up 7.80%, with a trading volume of 68,800 lots and an open interest of 40,500 lots, an increase of 1248 lots from the previous day [3]. - Short - term strategy: When the fundamentals do not show an obvious turn, it is recommended to try short positions on rallies. For the 2508 contract, it is recommended to try short positions lightly when it rebounds above 2000 (with a profit margin of more than 200 points). Short positions can consider taking profits. For risk - preferring investors, it is recommended to try long positions lightly on the 2510 contract below 1300 and set stop - losses and take - profits [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of the volatile international situation, it is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits on rallies for each contract, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. - The daily limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 16%; the company's margin for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 26%; the daily opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [4]. 3.4 Geopolitical Events - According to the Associated Press on June 29, US President Trump said he had no intention of extending the 90 - day tariff suspension period for most countries and regions beyond July 9. Once the negotiation period expires, trade punishment measures will take effect unless an agreement is reached [5]. - On June 30, the Egyptian Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying that the Egyptian Foreign Minister discussed the diplomatic solution to the Iranian nuclear issue and the resumption of negotiations with the Director - General of the International Atomic Energy Agency [5].

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for June increased to 49.7%, marking a rise for two consecutive months, with 11 out of 21 surveyed industries in the expansion zone, an increase of 4 from the previous month [1][2] - The new orders index returned to the expansion zone at 50.2%, up 0.4 percentage points from last month, indicating a recovery in market demand [2] - The production index rose to 51%, reflecting stable expansion in production activities, while the purchasing volume index increased significantly by 2.6 percentage points to 50.2% [2] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index for June was 50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued expansion [3] - The service sector's business activity index was 50.1%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points, attributed to seasonal declines in consumer travel demand post-holidays [3] - The construction sector showed accelerated expansion with a business activity index of 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, driven by ongoing infrastructure projects [3] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The comprehensive PMI output index rose to 50.7%, indicating an overall acceleration in production and business activities [5] - The second quarter's average non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.4%, consistent with the first quarter, suggesting stable expansion in the first half of the year [4] - Analysts emphasize the need for continued macroeconomic policy support to stimulate growth and address demand shortages in the manufacturing sector [5][6]

Economic Resilience - In the first half of the year, the Chinese economy demonstrated resilience amid complex domestic and international conditions, supported by a series of proactive policy measures [1] - The manufacturing PMI and composite PMI both showed a rebound for two consecutive months in June, indicating a gradual stabilization and improvement in the economy [1] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI in June was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, marking a continuous recovery in the economic climate [1] - Production activities in June accelerated despite it being a traditional off-peak season, showing a seasonal anomaly [1] - The purchasing volume index rose significantly by 2.6 percentage points to 50.2%, while raw material inventory increased by 0.6 percentage points to 48%, the highest level this year [1] - The new orders index rose by 0.4 percentage points to 50.2%, indicating an overall improvement in market demand [1] Key Industries - The three major industries—equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods—maintained good expansion momentum, with PMIs of 51.4%, 50.9%, and 50.4% respectively, all remaining in the expansion zone for two consecutive months [2] - Equipment manufacturing showed particularly active production and demand, driving collaborative development across related industries [2] - The high-tech manufacturing sector provided strong support for economic transformation and high-quality development [2] - The consumer goods sector's steady expansion reflected improving consumer confidence and recovering market demand [2] Construction Sector - The construction business activity index rose to 52.8%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a significant improvement in the sector's climate [2] - The positive trend was supported by government policies and funding guarantees, including the issuance of long-term special bonds and local government special bonds [2] Service Sector - The service sector maintained steady expansion, with a business activity index of 50.1%, despite a slight decline due to seasonal factors [3] - Certain service industries, such as telecommunications, financial services, and insurance, remained robust with business activity indices above 60% [3] - The service sector's business activity expectations index remained high, reflecting optimism about future market developments [3] Fiscal and Monetary Policies - The issuance of new special bonds accelerated significantly in June, focusing on key areas to support economic growth [4] - The first round of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions for the year has been fully implemented, alleviating pressure on the banking system and reducing financing costs [4] - The central bank and other departments are expected to introduce more incremental policies to further promote high-quality economic development [4] Real Estate Support - The central and local governments are increasing support for the real estate sector, with measures aimed at stabilizing the market and optimizing existing policies [5] - More special bond funds are expected to be allocated to areas such as shantytown renovation and old community upgrades to improve living conditions [5]

Market Performance - Market indexes are at all-time highs, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq leading, and a +20% increase from near-term lows in early April 2025 [1] - The Nasdaq has experienced a +17.2% increase in Q2 2025, marking its best performance since Q2 2020 [6] - The Dow is currently -2.7% from all-time highs, but has gained +230 points recently, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have also seen increases of +20 and +120 points respectively [6] Economic Indicators - The week is significant for job-related reports, including the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), ADP private-sector payrolls, and the U.S. Employment Report [2] - ADP figures show a low of +37K, with negative monthly changes in Professional/Business Services (-17K), Education/Healthcare (-13K), and Trade/Transportation/Utilities (-4K) [3] - Continuing Jobless Claims reached their highest level in 3.5 years, nearing 2 million for the week [3] Upcoming Reports - Key reports expected this week include final prints on U.S. Manufacturing and Services PMI, Construction spending, Factory Orders, and Auto Sales [4] - The Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) for June is anticipated to rise to 43.0 from 40.5, indicating improved business outlooks [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic economy is in a stage of phased recovery of internal and external demand, driving the PMI index to repair upward for two consecutive months [5][11][25]. - In the third quarter, the economic fundamentals still face several pressures, including the potential drag of high - temperature weather on production, the risk of demand decline as the driving force of reduced external uncertainties weakens, and the market's pessimistic outlook on the future fundamentals reflected by the decline of business operation expectations and employment indexes [5][25]. - Whether the existing policies can be implemented faster and whether the Politburo meeting in July can provide new incremental information may be important catalysts to help the bond market break the current volatile pattern [5][25]. Summary by Directory 1. Demand Repair Drives Strong Production - The demand index rose to the expansion range for the first time since the intensification of trade frictions in March, with the new order index rising 0.4 points, and the increase was greater than that of production, indicating the effect of domestic demand expansion policies and the dual suppression of production by seasonality and unclear demand prospects [3][11]. - The rebound of domestic demand may be mainly driven by national subsidies and the "618" shopping festival, with a fragile structure, and the decline of the employment index also reflects this [11]. - The new export order index's upward slope slowed down significantly, and the export replenishment based on the easing of trade frictions may be nearing the end, and external demand may face a quarterly decline in the second half of the year [3][16]. - High - temperature weather in July - August may further drag down manufacturing production [11][12][13]. 2. Price Index Moderate Repair - The raw material price index and the ex - factory price index increased by 1.5 points respectively compared with the previous month. The rise of the raw material price index may be related to the increased geopolitical risks leading to greater fluctuations in international crude oil prices, and the increase in oil prices is transmitted to other raw material prices through transportation costs [4][19]. - The repair of the downstream price index may be related to the temporary suspension of national subsidies in some regions. After the central funds for trade - in are issued in July, the price trend of terminal products needs further attention [4][21]. 3. Strong Recovery in the Construction Industry - The drag of real estate on the construction industry has weakened. The construction industry PMI index rose 1.8 points to 52.8 this month, and the business activity index of housing construction returned to the expansion range [5][22]. - The business activity index of civil engineering construction was 56.7%, down 5.6 points from the previous month, but it has been in the high - prosperity range above 55.0% for three consecutive months, indicating that infrastructure is still the main force for the expansion of the construction industry [22]. - After the holiday effect fades, the consumer service industry has a seasonal decline, while the producer service industry is relatively strong [25].

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing sector in China shows signs of recovery with the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising to 49.7% in June, marking the highest level in three months and indicating a broadening of manufacturing activity [1][3]. Group 1: Manufacturing Activity - In June, 11 out of 21 surveyed industries are in the expansion zone, an increase of 4 from the previous month, reflecting strong internal economic momentum [1]. - The production index reached 51.0%, and the new orders index rose to 50.2%, indicating a significant acceleration in manufacturing activities and improved market demand [3]. - The procurement index surged to 50.2%, up 2.6 percentage points from the previous month, suggesting enhanced purchasing willingness among enterprises [3]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods sectors all recorded PMIs above 50%, indicating continuous expansion for two consecutive months [4]. - The equipment manufacturing sector led with a PMI of 51.4%, while high-tech manufacturing and consumer goods sectors had PMIs of 50.9% and 50.4%, respectively, showcasing robust growth in production and new orders [4]. - The high-energy consumption sector's PMI improved to 47.8%, up 0.8 percentage points, reflecting ongoing structural adjustments and a shift towards greener practices [5]. Group 3: Enterprise Size Impact - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 51.2%, up 0.5 percentage points, indicating improved operational efficiency [6]. - Medium-sized enterprises saw a notable recovery with a PMI of 48.6%, increasing by 1.1 percentage points after two months of weak performance [6]. - The overall business activity index for the non-manufacturing sector was 50.5%, indicating a general acceleration in production and operational activities [6].

股指期货全景日报 2025/6/30 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IF主力合约（2509） | 3885.8 | +7.6↑ IF次主力合约（2507） | 3906.4 | +10.8↑ | | | IH主力合约（2509） | 2689.0 | +7.2↑ IH次主力合约（2507） | 2693.0 | +8.8↑ | | | IC主力合约（2509） | 5768.8 | +20.4↑ IC次主力合约（2507） | 5863.0 | +33.2↑ | | | IM主力合约（2509） | 6148.6 | +29.8↑ IM次主力合约（2507） | 6283.0 | +48.4↑ | | 期货盘面 | IF-IH当月合约价差 | 1213.4 | +5.8↑ IC-IF当月合约价差 | 1956.6 | +21.6↑ | | | IM-IC当月合约价差 | 420.0 | +16.8↑ IC-IH当月合约价差 | 3170.0 | +27.4↑ | | | IM ...

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人| 屠强、耿佩璇 摘要 事件： 6月30日，国家统计局公布6月PMI指数，制造业PMI为49.7%、前值49.5%；非制造业PMI为 50.5%、前值50.3%。 却下行至2023年来最低水平（52%）。展望后续，设备更新周期逐步退坡，出口链生产走弱，制造业景 气面临较大下行压力。但近期扩内需政策再加码，5000亿服务消费再贷款、准财政工具（政策性开发性 金融工具）已对服务业投资进行部署，服务消费、基建投资或加快修复，有望对企业和居民预期形成支 撑。 常规跟踪：制造业、非制造业景气均有改善。 制造业：制造业：制造业PMI有所回升，生产、新订单指数延续改善。 6月，制造业PMI边际上行0.2pct 至49.7%。生产、新订单指数边际分别上行0.3、0.3pct至51%、50.2%。 核心观点：制造业景气回升，但企业预期降至低位；政策加码下，需关注微观预期的变化。 6月制造业PMI表现好于市场预期，结构上依然是生产指数恢复更好。 6月制造业PMI延续回升，边际上 行0.2pct至49.7%，好于市场预期（WIND，49.3%）。主要分项中，生产、新订单指数 ...