Group 1 - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China held a meeting to analyze and study economic work for 2026, emphasizing the need for better coordination between domestic economic work and international trade struggles, and the implementation of more proactive macro policies [1] - The meeting proposed eight key "insistences" for economic work, highlighting the importance of expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply [1] - Experts indicated that the demand for economic growth transformation remains strong, and policies need to balance short-term and long-term goals, with domestic demand continuing to play a crucial role in economic recovery [1] Group 2 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission established legislative contact points to enhance market participation in capital market legislation, with six units designated as the first batch of contact points [4] - The International Monetary Fund's Shanghai Center officially opened, aimed at strengthening communication and cooperation with economies in the Asia-Pacific region [6] Group 3 - The National Financial Regulatory Administration emphasized the need for insurance companies to assess the sustainability of their business models as a regulatory focus, highlighting the importance of strategic direction and asset-liability management [8] - The latest data from the China Passenger Car Association indicated that domestic retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.32 million units in November, a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [12] - TrendForce projected that global shipments of optical transceivers above 800G will reach nearly 63 million units by 2026, representing a growth rate of 2.6 times from 2025 [13] Group 4 - China Minmetals announced plans to sell assets worth approximately 60.68 billion yuan, including 100% equity of China Metallurgical Real Estate and other subsidiaries to China Minmetals [16] - Agricultural Bank of China approved a cash dividend distribution plan amounting to approximately 41.82 billion yuan, with a per-share cash dividend of 0.1195 yuan [23] - Midea Group completed a share repurchase totaling approximately 10 billion yuan, acquiring about 135 million shares [27]

Report Core View - The Politburo meeting pointed out that next year's economic work should adhere to making progress while maintaining stability and improving quality and efficiency, continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and enhance the integrated effect of existing and incremental policies. It also emphasized increasing counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment and implementing more proactive and effective macro - policies [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange issued an announcement due to complex and changeable international situations and large fluctuations in the precious metals market, reminding relevant parties to take measures to prompt investors to prevent risks and invest rationally [2] - China's total goods trade import and export value in the first 11 months of this year was 41.21 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6% [2] - China's soybean imports in November were 8.107 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to November were 10.379 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.9% [2] - From November 24 - 30, 2025, the average purchase price of live pigs by designated slaughtering enterprises was 13.11 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.0% [2] Key Information by Category Hot News - The Politburo meeting determined the economic tone for next year, emphasizing the implementation of proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reminded of risks in the precious metals market [2] - China's goods trade import and export maintained growth in the first 11 months, with a year - on - year increase of 3.6% [2] - China's soybean imports showed an increasing trend in the first 11 months [2] - The average purchase price of live pigs decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [2] Key Focus - Focus on commodities such as lithium carbonate, coking coal, live pigs, Shanghai copper, and Shanghai gold [3] Night - session Performance - The night - session price changes of various commodity sectors are as follows: non - metallic building materials 2.70%, precious metals 30.17%, oilseeds 8.73%, non - ferrous metals 25.07%, soft commodities 2.86%, coal - coking and steel - ore 11.75%, energy 2.84%, chemicals 10.70%, grains 1.47%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.72% [3] Plate Position - The document shows the position changes of various commodity futures sectors in the past five days [4] Performance of Major Asset Classes - In the equity category, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.54% daily, 0.91% monthly, and 17.08% annually; the S&P 500 fell 0.35% daily, - 0.04% monthly, and rose 16.40% annually, etc. [5] - In the fixed - income category, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.02% daily, - 0.03% monthly, and - 0.93% annually [5] - In the commodity category, WTI crude oil fell 2.06% daily, rose 0.75% monthly, and fell 18.19% annually; London spot gold fell 0.18% daily, - 0.68% monthly, and rose 59.67% annually [5] - In other categories, the US dollar index rose 0.12% daily, - 0.34% monthly, and - 8.65% annually; the CBOE Volatility Index was flat daily, fell 5.75% monthly, and - 11.18% annually [5] Trends of Major Commodities - The document shows the trends of various commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index, CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, etc. [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Stock Index**: Despite short - term uncertainties due to year - end profit - taking, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. Short - term focus is on December's central meetings, and the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [2][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: The market is expected to oscillate under the mixed situation of weak domestic demand recovery and improving inflation expectations. Attention should be paid to the linkage between stocks and bonds and liquidity [5][6] - **Precious Metals**: It is recommended to gradually liquidate long positions in gold and silver and enter a wait - and - see state [7][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Most non - ferrous metals are expected to maintain high or strong oscillations, but the zinc industry's long - term supply surplus situation remains unchanged, and nickel has large surplus pressure [10][11][15] - **Black Building Materials**: Steel prices are gradually stabilizing, but the terminal demand is still weak, and the inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils is prominent. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate widely [29][30][32] - **Energy Chemicals**: Different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be short - term long on dips, and oil prices should be observed for OPEC's export support willingness [46][50][52] - **Agricultural Products**: Different agricultural products have different trends. For example, the supply of live pigs is under pressure in the near - term, and the long - term supply of sugar is expected to be in surplus [74][75][87] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - **Stock Index** - **Market Information**: The Politburo meeting analyzed the 2026 economic work, and the passenger car retail sales in November decreased by 8.5% year - on - year. The US bank predicts that commodities will be the best investment in 2026 [2] - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different periods are provided [3] - **Strategy**: Short - term focus on December's central meetings, long - term go long on dips [4] - **Treasury Bonds** - **Market Information**: The Politburo meeting set a tone for macro policies, and China's November export and import data improved. The central bank conducted net investment [5] - **Strategy**: The market is expected to oscillate, pay attention to the linkage between stocks and bonds and liquidity [6] - **Precious Metals** - **Market Information**: The prices of gold and silver fell, and the Fed's new - chair candidate's attitude became more cautious. Weak employment data had little impact on the price [7] - **Strategy**: Liquidate long positions and enter a wait - and - see state [8] 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper** - **Market Information**: The copper price fluctuated, LME and domestic inventories increased, and the import of unwrought copper and copper products decreased [10] - **Strategy**: The copper price is expected to maintain a high level, pay attention to inventory changes and macro events [11] - **Aluminum** - **Market Information**: The aluminum price fluctuated, domestic and LME inventories changed, and the spot trading was average [12] - **Strategy**: The aluminum price is expected to be strong, and the operation interval is provided [13] - **Zinc** - **Market Information**: The zinc price changed slightly, and the social inventory decreased [14][15] - **Strategy**: In the short - term, it is expected to be strong with copper and aluminum, but the long - term supply is in surplus [15] - **Lead** - **Market Information**: The lead price rose slightly, and the domestic social inventory decreased [16] - **Strategy**: The lead price is expected to be strong in the short - term due to low inventory [16] - **Nickel** - **Market Information**: The nickel price fluctuated slightly, and the price of nickel iron rebounded [17] - **Strategy**: The nickel price may oscillate in the short - term due to the stable price of nickel iron and the warming macro - environment [17] - **Tin** - **Market Information**: The tin price rose, and the supply was disturbed by conflicts and mining suspensions [18] - **Strategy**: The tin price is likely to rise in the short - term, and it is recommended to go long on dips [19] - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate rose, and the futures price increased significantly [20] - **Strategy**: The upward trend may not be sustainable, and it is recommended to observe [21] - **Alumina** - **Market Information**: The alumina price rose, and the inventory decreased [22] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see due to the over - capacity and approaching cost line [23] - **Stainless Steel** - **Market Information**: The stainless steel price rose slightly, and the social inventory decreased [25] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the actual implementation of steel mill production cuts to break the supply - demand deadlock [25] - **Casting Aluminum Alloy** - **Market Information**: The casting aluminum alloy price fluctuated, and the inventory decreased [26] - **Strategy**: The price is expected to follow the aluminum price, with support at the bottom and pressure at the top [27] 3.3 Black Building Materials - **Steel** - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils fell, and the inventory and positions changed [29] - **Strategy**: The steel price is gradually stabilizing, but the terminal demand is weak, and the hot - rolled coil inventory pressure is high [30] - **Iron Ore** - **Market Information**: The iron ore price fell, and the inventory increased [31] - **Strategy**: The iron ore price is expected to oscillate widely, with downward pressure in the range [32] - **Glass and Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The glass price rose, and the inventory decreased; the soda ash price fell, and the inventory decreased [33][35] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to be bearish on glass and cautiously bearish on soda ash [34][35] - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon** - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon fell [36] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to macro events and the situation of manganese ore and electricity prices [37][38] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon fell, and the inventory and production changed [39][41] - **Strategy**: The industrial silicon price is expected to be weak, and the polysilicon price is expected to oscillate widely [40][44] 3.4 Energy Chemicals - **Rubber** - **Market Information**: The rubber price was weak, with potential positive factors and different views from bulls and bears [46][47] - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral - bullish strategy, short - term long on dips and hold hedging positions [50] - **Crude Oil** - **Market Information**: The crude oil price rose, and the inventory of refined oil products changed [51] - **Strategy**: Do not be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term, and observe OPEC's export support willingness [52] - **Methanol** - **Market Information**: The methanol price changed, and the inventory decreased [53] - **Strategy**: The methanol market has pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see [53] - **Urea** - **Market Information**: The urea price changed, and the inventory decreased [54][55] - **Strategy**: The urea price is expected to build a bottom, and it is recommended to go long on dips [55] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene rose, and the inventory and production changed [56] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on non - integrated styrene profit when the inventory reverses [57] - **PVC** - **Market Information**: The PVC price rose, and the inventory increased [58] - **Strategy**: The PVC market has a surplus supply, and it is recommended to go short on rallies [59] - **Ethylene Glycol** - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol price fell, and the inventory increased [60][62] - **Strategy**: The ethylene glycol supply - demand situation is weak in the medium - term, and it is recommended to go short on rallies [63] - **PTA** - **Market Information**: The PTA price rose, and the inventory decreased [64] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips in PTA [65] - **Para - xylene** - **Market Information**: The PX price rose, and the inventory increased [66] - **Strategy**: The PX is expected to accumulate inventory in December, and it is recommended to go long on dips [68] - **Polyethylene (PE) and Polypropylene (PP)** - **Market Information**: The prices of PE and PP fell, and the inventory and production changed [69][71] - **Strategy**: For PE, go short on rallies for the LL1 - 5 spread; for PP, wait for the cost - side situation to change [70][72] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs** - **Market Information**: The live pig price fluctuated, with different trends in different regions [74] - **Strategy**: The near - term contract is under pressure, and the far - term contract has limited downside. Retain the reverse - hedging strategy [75] - **Eggs** - **Market Information**: The egg price was stable or rose, and the market transaction was smooth [76] - **Strategy**: The egg futures price may be over - valued, and pay attention to the upper pressure [77] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal** - **Market Information**: The soybean price fell, and the domestic bean meal price and inventory changed [78] - **Strategy**: The bean meal price is expected to oscillate [80] - **Oils and Fats** - **Market Information**: The domestic oil price fell, and the Malaysian palm oil export and production data changed [81][82] - **Strategy**: Try to go long on dips for palm oil [83] - **Sugar** - **Market Information**: The sugar futures price oscillated, and the production data of major sugar - producing countries changed [84][86] - **Strategy**: The international sugar price may be weak until next year's first quarter, and it is recommended to wait and see [87] - **Cotton** - **Market Information**: The cotton futures price oscillated, and the production, inventory, and demand data changed [88][89] - **Strategy**: The cotton price is unlikely to have a unilateral trend [90]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive yesterday. Affected by the decline in raw material prices, the prices of finished steel products remained in a bottom - oscillating state. Terminal demand was still weak, but steel prices were gradually stabilizing. The inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils was still prominent and difficult to significantly reduce in the short term. [2] - The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate widely. There is still pressure for a phased decline within the price range, and the support for the weighted contract is expected to be at 750 yuan/ton. [5] - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the trading focus is expected to return to the macro level. The future market is mainly guided by the direction of the black sector and factors such as price increases of manganese ore and electricity. [9] - The price of industrial silicon is estimated to be weak, and attention should be paid to the support at 8500 yuan/ton. [12] - The polysilicon market shows a situation of tug - of - war between reality and expectation, and between the upstream and downstream of the industry. The price is expected to fluctuate widely within a range. [14][15] - For glass, in the absence of unexpected changes, a bearish approach is recommended. [18] - For soda ash, the market is expected to continue its weak and oscillating trend in the short term, and a cautiously bearish approach is maintained. [20] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3123 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan/ton (-1.07%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 46,276 tons, a net increase of 2135 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.477577 million lots, a net increase of 3036 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. [1] - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3291 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton (-0.87%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 113,732 tons, with no change. The position of the main contract was 1.078676 million lots, a net increase of 11,932 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. [1] Strategy Viewpoints - The rebar production decreased significantly this week, and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral - to - stable overall performance. [2] - The production of hot - rolled coils decreased, but the apparent demand remained neutral. It was difficult to reduce the inventory, and the social inventory was still at a relatively high level. [2] Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 760.50 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.11% (-8.50). The position changed by +20,646 lots to 429,400 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 928,200 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 784 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 72.17 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 8.67%. [4] Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume increased slightly in the latest period. In Australia, shipments stopped falling and increased, mainly due to the rebound in shipments from Rio Tinto and FMG. The shipment volume from Brazil decreased month - on - month, with a significant decline from Vale. The shipment volume from non - mainstream countries reached a new high for the year, and the near - end arrival volume decreased month - on - month. [5] - In terms of demand, the average daily pig iron output according to the latest Steel Union data was 2.323 million tons, a decrease of 23,800 tons month - on - month. The number of blast furnaces under maintenance was more than those being restarted, and the annual inspections increased with relatively long durations. The profitability rate of steel mills rebounded slightly after continuous decline, and the number of profitable steel mills was still less than 40%. [5] - In terms of inventory, the port inventory continued to increase, and the steel mill inventory increased slightly. [5] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On December 8, coking coal led the decline, and the black sector continued to weaken. The main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) fell in the morning and then rebounded in an oscillating manner, closing down 0.38% at 5736 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the quoted price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, equivalent to 5910 yuan/ton on the futures market, remaining stable compared to the previous day, with a premium of 174 yuan/ton over the futures price. [7][8] - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed down 0.55% at 5444 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the quoted price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5600 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged compared to the previous day, with a premium of 156 yuan/ton over the futures price. [8] Strategy Viewpoints - The trading focus is expected to return to the macro level before the occurrence of intensive macro - events. The subsequent deployment of next year's economic work in the Central Economic Work Conference and potential policy expectations will become the trading focus of the black sector in the future. [9] - The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still not ideal, but most of these factors have been priced in. The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. The future market is mainly guided by the direction of the black sector and factors such as price increases of manganese ore and electricity. [9] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - For industrial silicon, the closing price of the main contract (SI2601) was 8675 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.48% (-130). The weighted contract position changed by +18,060 lots to 459,193 lots. In the spot market, the quoted price of non - oxygen - blown 553 in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the quoted price of 421 was 9700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 625 yuan/ton for 553 and 225 yuan/ton for 421. [11] - For polysilicon, the closing price of the main contract (PS2601) was 54,545 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.74% (-965). The weighted contract position changed by -1298 lots to 258,624 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon according to the SMM standard was 50 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged; the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.3 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged. The basis of the main contract was -2245 yuan/ton. [13] Strategy Viewpoints - Industrial silicon showed a weak trend in the short term. In November, affected by the increase in costs during the dry season, the operating rate in the southwest production area decreased significantly, and the total output decreased. It is expected that the output in the southwest region will continue to decline in December, and the overall output may continue to decline compared to November. The demand weakened slightly, and the supply - demand pattern showed a double - weak situation with no prominent contradictions. The price is estimated to be weak, and attention should be paid to the support at 8500 yuan/ton. [12] - For polysilicon, the production is expected to continue to decline in December, but the decline may be limited due to the expected capacity ramp - up and start - up of some northwest bases. The downstream silicon wafer production reduction is expected to increase, and the inventory accumulation pressure before the Spring Festival is difficult to relieve. The price of downstream silicon wafers and battery cells continued to weaken, while upstream silicon enterprises maintained price support. The price is expected to fluctuate widely within a range. [14][15] Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - For glass, the main contract closed at 1002 yuan/ton at 15:00 on Monday, an increase of 0.80% (+8). The quoted price of large - size glass in North China was 1060 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous day; the quoted price in Central China remained unchanged at 1110 yuan. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 59.442 million cases, a decrease of 2.92 million cases (-4.68%). In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders reduced their long positions by 25,830 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their short positions by 61,031 lots. [17] - For soda ash, the main contract closed at 1133 yuan/ton at 15:00 on Monday, a decrease of 0.35% (-4). The quoted price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1123 yuan, an increase of 6 yuan from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.5386 million tons, a decrease of 48,800 tons (-4.68%), including 810,800 tons of heavy soda ash, a decrease of 36,000 tons, and 727,800 tons of light soda ash, a decrease of 12,800 tons. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders reduced their long positions by 27,379 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their short positions by 38,430 lots. [19] Strategy Viewpoints - In November, multiple production lines in the domestic glass industry were shut down for maintenance, resulting in a reduction in daily melting capacity. From the perspective of the real estate sector, the industry still faces downward pressure, and a bearish approach is recommended in the absence of unexpected changes. [18] - For soda ash, the overall industry operating rate remained stable, and the supply pressure was still large. The demand was relatively flat, and downstream enterprises mainly purchased on demand. The production enterprises mainly fulfilled previous orders and had a strong intention to stabilize prices. The Alxa Phase II project is planned to be officially put into production on December 11, which is expected to bring certain pressure to the soda ash market. The market is expected to continue its weak and oscillating trend in the short term, and a cautiously bearish approach is maintained. [20]

3．12月8日，外交部发言人郭嘉昆主持例行记者会。在回答中美经贸关系的问题时，郭嘉昆表示，中美经贸关 系的本质是互利共赢，不存在谁占谁的便宜。经贸合作应该继续成为中美关系的"压舱石"和"推进器"。我们希 望美方同中方一道落实好两国元首重要共识，本着平等、尊重、互惠的原则，通过对话协商，不断压缩问题清 单，拉长合作清单，争取更多积极进展。 今日关注 申购提示：今日（12月9日）一只新股申购。 中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。 沐曦股份中签号公布。 重要的消息有哪些 1．新股申购：元创股份申购代码001325，发行价24.75元/股，申购上限1.95万股。投资有风险，申购需谨慎。 2．据新华社，中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作，审议《中国共产党领导全面依法 治国工作条例》。对于如何做好明年的经济工作，会议提出一些重要表述，包括"更好统筹国内经济工作和国 际经贸斗争""实施更加积极有为的宏观政策""持续扩大内需、优化供给"等，并提出八项"坚持"的重点工作。 责编：万健祎 校对： 杨立林 版权声明 证券时报各平台所有原创内容，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转 ...

（文章来源：第一财经） 中金公司研报表示，中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。会议强调明年经济 工作要坚持"稳中求进、提质增效"的总基调，"实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，持续扩大内需、优化供 给"，并将"内需主导，建设强大国内市场"放在八大任务第一条。我们认为在国内供求矛盾比较突出、 外围环境仍有挑战的背景下，明年总量政策或将适度加力，财政货币也可能加大协同以提升治理效能。 我们认为结构方面的政策可能"增减"并行，既做加法，也做减法，以改善政策效率，既提振需求，也改 善供给，以实现合理增长。 ...

中金研究 中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作[1]。会议强调明年经济工作要坚持"稳中求进、提质增效"的总基调，"实施更加积极有为 的宏观政策，持续扩大内需、优化供给"，并将"内需主导，建设强大国内市场"放在八大任务第一条。我们认为在国内供求矛盾比较突出、外围环境仍 有挑战的背景下，明年总量政策或将适度加力，财政货币也可能加大协同以提升治理效能。我们认为结构方面的政策可能"增减"并行，既做加法，也 做减法，以改善政策效率，既提振需求，也改善供给，以实现合理增长。 点击小程序查看报告原文 供求失衡现象仍然比较突出。 一方面，金融周期下行调整，资源配置优化，供给能力得到增强，绿色经济和人工智能产业规模效应显现、出口在贸易摩 擦下持续展现韧性都是供给端竞争力提升的体现。另一方面，周期和结构调整带来需求不足，金融周期下行调整通过明斯基的财富效应以及费雪债务-低 通胀等效应制约国内需求。结构优化与技术进步导致劳动密度和劳动需求下降、就业不充分。继4月政治局会议[2]后，本次会议再次提出更好"统筹国内 经济工作和国际经贸斗争"，并将"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"放在八大任务第一条。这与"十五五 ...

今年以来，我国实施"更加积极有为"的宏观政策，支持实体经济发展力度加大，推动经济持续回升向 好。 根据中央政治局会议部署，"十五五"开局之年，我国宏观政策"更加积极有为"的取向不变，继续实施更 加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。同时，明年将加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度。 值得注意的是，明年在加大逆周期调节力度的同时，也将加大跨周期调节。"总体上，'跨周期'提法的 回归意味着货币政策视角更重长期。"华泰证券研究所所长张继强在近期研报中指出，明年转型诉求不 减，增长诉求同样强，因此政策需要兼顾短期与长远，更要为未来几年的风险挑战做足准备。 根据本次会议要求，明年在宏观政策实施过程中，还将注重"更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗 争""增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性"等。 中泰证券研究所政策组首席分析师杨畅对此表示，明年财政、货币政策存在相机抉择的可能性，即一旦 经济出现明显波动，将通过增量政策实现逆周期和跨周期的调节，确保经济平稳运行。明年还需要将国 内经济与国际经贸形势进行整体考虑，一旦外部压力加大，或将相机进行内部政策的对冲。 （文章来源：证券时报） "继续实施"今年财政、货币政策取向，不仅意味着明年政策将保持连 ...

新华社北京12月8日电 题：坚定信心真抓实干 奋力实现"十五五"良好开局——从中央政治局会议看 2026年经济工作方向 新华社记者 12月8日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。 会议总结分析今年经济工作，对明年经济工作作出一系列重要部署，必将进一步坚定发展信心、凝 聚发展共识，有效应对各种冲击挑战，巩固拓展经济稳中向好势头，为实现"十五五"良好开局打牢基 础。 今年经济社会发展主要目标将顺利实现 2025年是"十四五"规划收官之年，在中国式现代化进程中具有重要意义。 会议总结一年来经济工作，作出重要判断：以习近平同志为核心的党中央团结带领全党全国各族人 民迎难而上、奋力拼搏，统筹国内国际两个大局，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，经济社会发展主要目 标将顺利实现。 "今年以来，面对外部压力加大和内部困难较多的复杂局面，党中央科学决策，各地区各部门狠抓 落实，前三季度我国国内生产总值同比增长5.2%，在全球主要经济体中保持前列，继续展现强大韧性 和活力。"国家发展改革委经济研究所副所长郭丽岩说。 会议指出，我国经济运行总体平稳、稳中有进，新质生产力稳步发展，改革开放迈出新步伐，重点 领域风险化解取 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a proactive macroeconomic policy in 2026, focusing on domestic demand and supply optimization to support economic recovery and growth [1][2][3]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Policy - The macroeconomic policy will continue to be "more proactive and effective," maintaining a supportive stance through fiscal and monetary measures [2][3]. - Fiscal policy may see an increase in central government spending, with a potential budget deficit rate raised to 4.5% and continued issuance of special government bonds [2]. - Monetary policy will remain "appropriately loose," with structural tools supporting key sectors while overall monetary conditions remain stable [2][3]. Group 2: Domestic Demand and Supply - The meeting highlighted the need to "continuously expand domestic demand and optimize supply," indicating a strong focus on enhancing domestic market capabilities [5][6]. - Domestic demand has contributed an average of 93.1% to economic growth from 2013 to 2024, but challenges remain in aligning supply with demand [5]. - The government aims to create a sustainable mechanism for expanding domestic demand, addressing the mismatch between high-end supply and weak demand [5][6]. Group 3: Innovation and New Growth Drivers - The meeting called for "innovation-driven development" to foster new economic momentum, aligning with the goals of the 14th Five-Year Plan [7][8]. - Emphasis is placed on creating a collaborative innovation ecosystem that integrates government, market, and social resources to enhance technological advancements [7][8]. - Current challenges include insufficient investment in basic research and a disconnect between research outcomes and practical applications [8]. Group 4: Open Economy and International Cooperation - The importance of "expanding high-level opening up" and promoting win-win cooperation in various fields was underscored, particularly in response to complex global changes [9][10]. - China aims to diversify trade partnerships and enhance resilience in trade development, with significant projected imports and foreign direct investments from 2013 to 2024 [10]. - Future cooperation will focus on areas such as green trade and international industrial chain collaboration [10]. Group 5: Risk Management - The meeting stressed the need for proactive and prudent risk management in key areas, including real estate and local government debt [11][12]. - Measures have been implemented to address risks in the real estate sector, including optimizing financial policies and establishing a financing coordination mechanism [12]. - The focus will shift towards long-term management of local government debt, with an emphasis on preventing the accumulation of hidden debts [13][14].