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【白银期货收评】风险情绪可能反复 沪银主力收涨2.11%
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-07-14 08:08
特朗普还表示,对欧盟和墨西哥30%的关税将独立于所有行业关税。这意味着美国对钢铁和铝进口征收 50%的关税、对汽车进口征收25%的关税的做法将继续保留。 欧盟和墨西哥在回应中称关税是不公平和具有破坏性的,同时承诺在最后期限前继续与美国谈判,以达 成更广泛的贸易协议。 欧盟一直希望与美国达成一项全面贸易协议。特朗普在致欧盟的信函中要求欧洲放弃关税。他写 道:"欧盟对美国完全开放市场准入,并且不对我们征收关税,以减少巨额贸易逆差。" 【白银期货最新行情】 7月14日 收盘价(元/千克) 当日涨跌幅 成交量(手) 持仓量(手) 沪银主力 9207 2.11% 1093003 448095 数据显示,7月14日上海白银现货价格报价9168元/千克,相较于期货主力价格(9207元/千克)贴水39 元/千克。 美国总统特朗普上周六(7月12日)威胁从8月1日起对从墨西哥和欧盟进口的商品征收30%的关税,此前他 与这两个美国最大的贸易伙伴进行了数周谈判,但未能达成一项全面的贸易协议。贸易战升级激怒了美 国盟友,也让投资者感到不安。 特朗普周六在Truth Social上公布分别发给欧盟执委会主席冯德莱恩(Ursula vo ...
今日观点集锦-20250714
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-07-14 07:37
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The data reflects China's economic resilience, the market risk - aversion sentiment eases, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures; the market interest rate consolidates, the Treasury bond rebounds slightly, and it is recommended to hold light long positions in Treasury bonds [2] - Under the "anti - involution" situation, the supply of finished steel may shrink, and attention should be paid to the implementation of specific policy documents; the expectation of old - city renovation and shantytown transformation has spurred long - position funds, and the price increase of coke by mainstream coking plants will be implemented this week, leading to a sharp rise in the black sector [3] - Trump's latest tariff measures have escalated the trade war, the market risk - aversion sentiment has rebounded to boost the gold price; the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September has decreased, and attention should be paid to this week's CPI data; it is expected that gold will maintain a high - level shock [4] - The spot price of logs is stable, the expected arrival volume will decrease month - on - month, the supply center will move down, the supply pressure will ease, the average daily outbound volume will remain above 60,000 cubic meters, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and attention should be paid to the impact of log futures delivery on log prices [5] - The production of natural rubber in domestic and foreign producing areas is steadily increasing, and there is still room for the raw material price to decline; the port inventory remains at a high level, and the weak fundamentals cannot support the continuous rise of rubber prices [6] - The USDA monthly report on US soybeans has a negative impact, the growth of US soybeans is good, and South American soybeans have a bumper harvest and continuous exports; about 10 million tons of imported soybeans will arrive in July, the oil mill operating rate remains high, the oil mill pick - up volume has declined, the soybean meal inventory has continued to rise, and soybean meal will fluctuate weakly [7] - The possibility of new US sanctions supports oil prices, PX continues to destock and fluctuates with oil prices; the supply - demand expectation of PTA weakens and it will follow cost fluctuations in the short term; the raw materials have recovered, but the supply - demand of MEG weakens, and the upside space of the market is restricted [8] - The market supply - demand stalemate is obvious. Farmers in northern regions cut prices for promotion due to the pressure of selling livestock, while southern regions stabilize the market by adjusting the supply rhythm; the weak consumer demand restricts price increases, and the regional price difference gradually widens; it is expected that domestic hog prices will maintain small - scale fluctuations [9] Summaries by Related Catalogs Stock and Bond - Data shows China's economic resilience, market risk - aversion sentiment eases, hold long positions in stock index futures; market interest rate consolidates, Treasury bond rebounds slightly, hold light long positions in Treasury bonds [2] Black - "Anti - involution" may shrink finished steel supply, pay attention to policy implementation; old - city renovation expectation spurs long - position funds, coke price increase by coking plants will be implemented this week, leading to a sharp rise in the black sector [3] Gold - Trump's tariff measures escalate trade war, market risk - aversion boosts gold price; Fed's September interest - rate cut expectation decreases, pay attention to CPI data, gold to maintain high - level shock [4] Logs - Spot log price is stable, expected arrival volume to decrease, supply pressure eases, average daily outbound volume above 60,000 cubic meters, pay attention to futures delivery impact [5] Natural Rubber - Production in domestic and foreign areas increases, raw material price may decline, port inventory is high, weak fundamentals can't support price rise [6] Soybeans and Soybean Meal - USDA report on US soybeans is negative, US soybeans grow well, South American soybeans export continuously; about 10 million tons of imported soybeans in July, oil mill operating rate high, pick - up volume down, soybean meal inventory up, soybean meal to fluctuate weakly [7] Oil - Related Chemicals - US sanctions may support oil prices, PX destocks with oil price fluctuations; PTA supply - demand weakens, follows cost in short term; MEG supply - demand weakens, upside space restricted [8] Hogs - Market supply - demand stalemate, northern farmers cut prices, southern regions adjust supply, weak consumer demand restricts price, hog prices to fluctuate slightly [9]
荷兰国际:欧盟仍有时间与美国达成贸易协议
news flash· 2025-07-14 06:10
金十数据7月14日讯,在欧盟领导人准备应对特朗普威胁对欧洲进口商品征收30%关税之际,荷兰国际 银行经济学家Carsten Brzeski和Inga Fechner写道:"特朗普在上周末写给冯德莱恩的信中表示,关税将 于8月1日生效。三周是一段很长的时间。"欧盟在对美国进口钢铁等产品采取反击措施之前等待这一最 后期限是正确的。他们告诉投资者,目前的形势"仍有很大的谈判空间。""我们只能重复之前的观点, 即贸易战中没有赢家,只有输家。" 荷兰国际:欧盟仍有时间与美国达成贸易协议 ...
特朗普50%关税引发全球!巴西三连击反杀,日本也硬气到底
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-14 05:45
Group 1: Brazil's Response to U.S. Tariffs - Brazil's government swiftly countered Trump's announcement of a 50% tariff on all Brazilian goods, highlighting a $410 billion trade surplus the U.S. has enjoyed over the past 15 years and a $32 billion surplus last year [1] - Brazil's countermeasures include imposing a reciprocal 50% tariff, halting patent licenses for U.S. pharmaceutical companies, and redirecting 500,000 tons of beef exports to China, which is double the amount previously sent to the U.S. [1] - The Brazilian Congress passed the "Commercial Reciprocity Law," targeting U.S. soybeans, Boeing aircraft, and natural gas with additional tariffs, causing panic among U.S. pharmaceutical companies [1] Group 2: Japan's Strong Stance - Japan's Prime Minister expressed the need for Japan to reduce its dependency on the U.S. in defense and energy, framing the tariff negotiations as a critical battle for national sovereignty [3] - Japan is considering selling up to $1.1 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds as leverage against the U.S., which could significantly impact U.S. financing costs [3] - Japanese companies like Toyota and Mitsubishi are shifting production away from the U.S. and cutting supply to the U.S. military, which could lead to substantial losses for American firms reliant on Japanese components [3] Group 3: Political and Economic Implications - Trump's tariffs are seen as a response to Brazil's shift towards using local currencies in trade with China, reducing the dollar's dominance [4] - The tariffs also reflect U.S. concerns over Brazil's efforts to issue bonds in yuan and the establishment of a digital currency backed by commodities [4] - The political nature of the tariffs is underscored by Trump's demands for Brazil to cease investigations into former President Bolsonaro, which Brazil views as interference in its judicial sovereignty [4] Group 4: Global Reactions and Economic Impact - The tariffs have triggered a global chain reaction, with South Korea and the EU preparing retaliatory measures against U.S. tariffs, indicating a broader trade conflict [6] - Goldman Sachs estimates that a prolonged trade war could increase global inflation by 0.7%, while U.S. businesses face rising costs due to tariffs, with automotive costs expected to rise by 15% [6] - The price of Brazilian coffee beans surged by 30% within a week due to the tariffs, reflecting immediate market impacts [6] Group 5: U.S. Isolation and Domestic Division - Trump's tariff policies have led to unprecedented unity among BRICS nations, with a collective condemnation of U.S. unilateralism and a push for de-dollarization [8] - Domestic backlash against the tariffs is evident, with criticism from influential figures like Elon Musk and concerns from agricultural states about losing voter support due to disrupted soybean exports [9] - The "America First" policy has resulted in increased global isolation for the U.S. and significant internal divisions within the country [9]
又有8国收到美最后通牒?巴西不忍了!一马当先,吹响反制的号角
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-14 03:09
又有8国收到美最后通牒?巴西不忍了!一马当先,直接吹响反制的号角。 巴西总统卢拉 据央视新闻最新报道称,当地时间7月9日时,美国总统特朗普在社交平台上发布了最新的加税信件,而收到信件的8个国家,分 别是巴西、菲律宾、利比亚等国。 阿尔克明还补充道,他看不出美国有任何理由要对巴西提高关税,美国确实是有贸易逆差,但对巴西是顺差。并且在美国对巴 西出口的产品中,大多数都是零关税入境的,甚至不需要缴税。 但值得注意的是,除了巴西的产品被强制征收50%的关税外,其余7国的税率都没超过30%。并且巴西所面临的新关税税率,远 高于4月2日时,美国对巴西所征收的10%的关税。此外,在特朗普宣布对巴西征收50%的惩罚性关税后,他还下令要对巴西展 开不公平的贸易行为调查。 由此可见,美国这次是在故意针对巴西了。 在收到特朗普这一信函后,巴西的副总统兼服务部长——热拉尔多·阿尔克明,立即在当天回应道,特朗普对巴西所征收的新关 税,是十分不公平的。 巴西的副总统兼服务部长——热拉尔多·阿尔克明 但即便是阿尔克明立即回应了,特朗普的这一针对性行径,也改变不了美国政府硬要对巴西征收高额关税的现实。 而巴西总统卢拉也深知这一点,但他并未束 ...
欧盟推迟反制美国关税,“计划与加拿大和日本进行接触”
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2025-07-14 02:13
Core Viewpoint - The EU is currently in critical negotiations with the US regarding tariffs, with President Trump threatening a 30% tariff on EU products, prompting a response from EU leaders who are seeking to negotiate rather than retaliate aggressively [1][4]. Group 1: EU's Response to US Tariff Threats - EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced the postponement of retaliatory tariffs on $210 billion worth of US products, originally set to take effect on July 15, to early August, emphasizing a preference for negotiation [1][4]. - Von der Leyen stated that the EU will continue to prepare additional countermeasures while prioritizing negotiations with the US [1][7]. - The EU is planning to engage with countries like Canada and Japan to coordinate responses to the US tariffs [3][4]. Group 2: Internal EU Reactions and Criticism - Some European business organizations and politicians criticized von der Leyen's approach as weak, suggesting that failure to respond effectively to Trump's tariffs would be a significant setback [1][4]. - French President Macron expressed strong dissatisfaction with Trump's threats and urged the EU to prepare credible countermeasures if negotiations fail [4][9]. - Italian officials and agricultural organizations warned that the proposed tariffs could have devastating effects on Italy's food exports, estimating direct losses of around €2.3 billion [8][9]. Group 3: Economic Impact and Negotiation Dynamics - Germany, being the largest exporter to the US, reported a 7.7% decline in exports to the US in May, highlighting the economic impact of the tariff threats [5][7]. - EU leaders are divided on whether to pursue a quick trade agreement similar to the UK's or to continue negotiations for a better outcome [4][9]. - EU officials believe that Trump's threats may be a negotiation tactic rather than a definitive policy change, with expectations that a reasonable solution can still be reached [4][5].
美国三天连谈三场急眼了?7月13日,中美会谈传来新消息
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-14 01:37
Group 1 - The trade war initiated by Trump five years ago has led to significant economic consequences, including a 20% tariff on Chinese blood pressure monitors, which resulted in price increases despite the tariffs [1] - The interactions between China and the U.S. have intensified recently, with meetings between Chinese diplomats and U.S. officials indicating a desire to maintain a delicate balance without escalating tensions [3][5] - The meetings involving high-profile figures, such as Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang visiting the White House before his trip to China, suggest a strategic approach to navigating the complexities of U.S.-China relations [8][10] Group 2 - The shift in stance from previously hardline U.S. politicians, such as Senator Rubio, reflects a pragmatic recognition of the economic realities, particularly the rising interest payments on U.S. debt [5][14] - The deep interdependence of the U.S. and Chinese economies is highlighted, with both sides needing to find a way to coexist despite ongoing tensions [15][17] - Huang's visit may serve not only as a means of communication but also as an opportunity for Nvidia to explore new market avenues in China, emphasizing the importance of balancing business interests with geopolitical dynamics [12][17]
欧盟暂缓反制,民众呼吁:就得硬刚!
第一财经· 2025-07-13 23:56
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the U.S. imposing a 30% tariff on goods imported from the EU starting August 1, 2025, and the EU's response to this decision, highlighting concerns about a potential trade war and its impact on both sides. Group 1: EU's Response to U.S. Tariffs - The European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced the extension of the suspension period for countermeasures against U.S. tariffs until early August, while preparing for potential retaliatory actions [2][4] - There is internal skepticism within the EU regarding the decision to extend the suspension, with some officials questioning whether further concessions are appropriate [2] - The EU aims to negotiate a solution with the U.S. before the deadline, maintaining a dual strategy of negotiation and potential countermeasures [4] Group 2: Concerns from European Leaders - German Chancellor Merz expressed that the tariffs would negatively impact Germany's export sector and emphasized the need for a resolution before the tariff implementation [3] - Italian Prime Minister Meloni warned that a trade war among Western allies would weaken collective strength in facing global challenges [3] - Belgian Deputy Prime Minister De Croo criticized the tariff escalation as unreasonable and likely to result in a "lose-lose" situation for both the U.S. and EU [3] Group 3: Impact on Specific Industries - The French dairy industry, particularly cheese exports, is expected to suffer significantly from the U.S. tariffs, with annual exports to the U.S. valued at approximately €350 million [5] - The head of the French National Dairy Industry Association highlighted the need for the industry to explore new markets to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs [5] - The association's representative emphasized the importance of proactive measures and support from the French government to open new markets for dairy products [5]
30%关税大棒将至 欧盟暂缓反制寻转机 民众呼吁:就得硬刚
Yang Shi Xin Wen· 2025-07-13 23:37
Group 1 - The U.S. President Trump announced a 30% tariff on goods imported from the EU starting August 1 [1][4] - The EU Commission President von der Leyen stated that the EU will extend the suspension of countermeasures against U.S. tariffs until early August while preparing for potential retaliatory measures [2][9] - Concerns have been raised within the EU regarding the effectiveness of further concessions to the U.S., with calls for the EU to initiate retaliatory measures [4][9] Group 2 - German Chancellor Merz expressed that the tariffs would negatively impact Germany's export sector and emphasized the need for a resolution before August 1 [5] - Italian Prime Minister Meloni warned that a trade war within the West would weaken collective strength in facing global challenges [7] - Belgian Deputy Prime Minister Prevoo criticized the tariff escalation as unreasonable and likely to result in a "lose-lose" situation [8] Group 3 - EU citizens are divided on the approach to the U.S. tariffs, with some advocating for a stronger stance against U.S. demands [11][12] - The underlying motivations for the U.S. tariff actions may extend beyond trade deficits, potentially aiming to gain leverage in various strategic negotiations [14] Group 4 - The French dairy industry is particularly concerned about the impact of U.S. tariffs, with significant exports to the U.S. at approximately €350 million annually, primarily in cheese [17][18] - The French dairy sector is urged to explore new markets to mitigate the effects of U.S. tariffs [15][18]
美国威胁全部无效,14个国家无一服软,特朗普4字点名中美现状
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-13 19:58
用关税作为威胁来倒逼其他国家对美国做出让步,这已经是特朗普常用的手段了。但是估计特朗普怎么都没想到,这次他明明对14个国家都发出了最后通 牒,却没有一个人对美国服软,他的威胁更是全部失效。 在这种情况之下,特朗普顿时明白了一个问题并迅速喊话中国,用四个字点明了中美现状。那么特朗普所说的这四个字究竟是什么?美国的威胁当真已经无 用了吗? 特朗普的威胁 早在七月初期,特朗普就曾表示过关税暂停期到期之后将会对和中国有着密切贸易关系的14个国家恢复之前的对等关税,并且还专门给这14个国家发送了信 函进行通告。 这已经是赤裸裸的威胁了,不过值得注意的一点是,这次被加征关税的14个国家中,甚至能看到日韩这类和美国有着盟友关系的国家。 很明显,这次特朗普已经决定要继续奉行"美国至上"主义了,不管是不是美国盟友,只要触碰到了美国利益就会受到同样的威胁和制裁。 对此,日本也在第一时间做出了回应称:日本和美国已经进行过了多轮谈判,但是却没有取得任何进展,日本已经做好了全面准备去坚定自身立场。 日本的这一番表态也是把话给美国挑明了,无论你怎么威胁,这次我都不准备让步了。因为美日之间的盟友关系,之前日本政府或许还会有所克制,至少不 ...