证券研究报告 | 海外市场点评 2025 年 05 月 06 日 [Table_Main] 海外市场点评 证券分析师 薛威 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 资格编号：S0120523070007 积极信号有望释放 ——美联储 5 月利率决议前瞻 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn 背景：美东时间 5 月 7 日（北京时间 5 月 8 日凌晨），美联储将公布 5 月利率决 议。从目前的 CME 联邦基金期货模型来看，市场预期 5 月按兵不动的概率为 95%， 由于美国经济尚具有一定韧性，关税带来的影响目前从就业与通胀角度看尚不显 著，联储预计会保留足够的政策灵活性，以应对未来的较大不确定性。 焦点：联储如何评价经济形势？关注鲍威尔发布会言论。当前美国经济数据显示出 温和转弱的特征，但尚未显示出衰退迹象。联邦政府和从事 ToG 相关业务企业在 4 月的大规模裁员并未明显体现在非农数据上，PMI 数据也维持较强势的状态，但 后续谈判进度存在较大的不确定性，一旦谈判 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy experienced a contraction in Q1 2025, with real GDP declining at an annualized rate of -0.3%, marking the first shrinkage in nearly three years. Concerns over tariffs have led to a surge in imports, which negatively impacted GDP growth, while consumption and investment remained relatively stable. Looking ahead, the economy may face further pressure in Q2 due to increased tariffs, inventory depletion, and declining exports [1][3][5]. Economic Performance - In Q1 2025, real GDP fell short of market expectations, declining from a robust 2.4% in Q4 2024 to -0.3%. The surge in actual goods imports, which rose by 41.3% on a quarter-over-quarter basis, significantly detracted from GDP growth by 4.8 percentage points. Meanwhile, private domestic final sales increased slightly from 2.9% to 3.0%, indicating stable domestic demand prior to the tariff implementation [3][4]. - Fixed asset investment showed mixed results, with equipment investment rebounding significantly to a growth rate of 22.5%, contributing 1.1 percentage points to GDP. However, real estate and construction growth slowed, reflecting ongoing pressures from high interest rates. Personal consumption expenditure growth also declined from 4.0% to 1.8%, with durable goods consumption turning negative [4][5]. Future Economic Outlook - The second quarter is expected to face additional economic pressure as imports may slow down due to tariffs, potentially alleviating some of the negative impact from "import rushing." However, this could lead to greater disruptions in economic activity. Inventory depletion is anticipated to further suppress economic growth, while consumer spending may slow due to higher costs [5][6]. - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with April's non-farm payrolls adding 177,000 jobs, surpassing expectations. However, the labor market may face increased pressure from tariff-related uncertainties, which could dampen overall employment growth [6][7]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation risks remain elevated, with the core PCE price index rising from 2.6% to 3.5% in Q1 2025, moving further away from the Federal Reserve's 2% target. The ongoing high tariffs and unresolved trade negotiations may exacerbate inflationary pressures, particularly affecting low-income consumers reliant on affordable goods [9][10]. - Given the current economic landscape, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower interest rates in the near term. The upcoming FOMC meeting is expected to maintain a neutral to hawkish stance, as resilient GDP and employment data do not support rate cuts. Future rate decisions will depend on the evolution of tariff impacts and inflation trends [10][11].

欧洲央行管委Stournaras：如果欧盟（针对特朗普政府的）关税反应是精挑细选的，预计将不会（对欧 元区自身）造成通胀风险。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Canada meeting minutes indicate that members supporting interest rate cuts cited recent subdued inflation risks and signs of a weakening economy [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Economic Indicators - Recent inflation risks are described as relatively mild, suggesting a stable price environment [1] - There are indications that the economy is showing signs of weakness, which may influence monetary policy decisions [1]

Core Insights - John Paulson gained fame by shorting the U.S. real estate market, creating a legendary investment narrative, and his long-term journey in gold investment reflects the volatility of global economic and financial markets [1][3] Group 1: Investment Journey - After profiting from the U.S. housing market collapse, Paulson shifted focus to gold, predicting inflation risks amid the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing policies, leading to a significant profit of $15 billion for his hedge fund in 2007 [3] - Paulson's early investments in gold were initially successful, but his misjudgment regarding inflation led to setbacks in gold-related investments, particularly in mining stocks, as well as losses in pharmaceutical and banking sectors [3][4] - In 2020, Paulson transformed his hedge fund into a private investment management firm, focusing on serving himself and related entities, while also engaging in legal disputes and political activities [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The COVID-19 pandemic triggered massive stimulus policies and inflationary pressures, enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, with gold prices surpassing $3,500 per ounce amid declining stock and bond markets [4] - Paulson increased his investment in gold, spending $800 million to acquire a 50% stake in Barrick Gold's Donlin project in Alaska, which is estimated to contain 39 million ounces of gold, equivalent to a quarter of Fort Knox's reserves [4] - The development of the Donlin mine faces challenges, including infrastructure needs and location on indigenous land, with production not expected until the early 2030s, yet Paulson remains optimistic about its long-term value [4] Group 3: Investment Philosophy - Paulson believes in gold's enduring value as a physical reserve that can withstand inflation, war, and asset confiscation, despite its high storage costs and lack of interest income [5] - He emphasizes the potential for mining companies to significantly increase profits as gold prices rise, and even if prices fall, mining companies can still remain profitable [5] - Paulson's investment strategy includes focusing on emerging mining companies, such as Perpetua Resources and Agnico Eagle Mines, to maximize returns in a fluctuating market [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the U.S. fiscal pressure is expected to impact U.S. Treasury yields, particularly with concerns over budget resolutions and potential government shutdowns [1] - The U.S. Congress passed a budget resolution for the fiscal year 2025 in April, but it lacks legal effect and cannot directly allocate funds [1] - If the budget bill is not passed by September 30, a temporary funding bill will be required to avoid government shutdown risks [1] Group 2 - The implementation of the Trump tax cuts this year is anticipated to further increase the U.S. fiscal deficit pressure [1] - Market concerns regarding fiscal pressure and inflation risks are likely to keep U.S. Treasury yields, particularly the mid-term premium and inflation expectations, elevated [1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is expected to remain above 4.0% for some time, with future downward movement dependent on Trump’s policies, the economic pressures in the U.S., and Federal Reserve statements [1]

文 ｜ 明明 周成华 王楠茜 虽然今年4月美国国会通过了2 0 2 5财年预算决议，但该决议并不具有法律效力也不能直接拨款。预计今年预算法案需要在9月3 0 日前通过，否则国会则需通过临时拨款法案以避免政府停摆风险。特朗普减税法案今年若落地，美国财政赤字压力将进一步攀 升。市场对于财政压力的担忧以及对于通胀风险的担忧将持续导致美债利率中期限溢价以及通胀预期部分高位运行，进而1 0年 期美债利率中枢或一段时间在4 . 0%以上，后续美债利率下行空间的打开或需观察特朗普政策、美国经济承压状况和美联储表 态。 ▍ 2 0 2 5年4月1 0日美国众议院以2 1 6票对2 1 4票通过了参议院修订的2 0 2 5财年预算决议。 预算决议是国会内部指导文件，设定了政府在特定时期内的财政收支预期，不具有法律效力、无需总统签署和直接拨款。只要 参众两院通过相同的预算决议，该年度决议即被采纳。预算决议主要为后续立法确定财政方向和规模，以及为国会内部的预算 协调和审议提供基础。按照《1 9 7 4年国会预算法》，预算决议应在4月1 5日前通过，但实际较多财年未有决议通过。若无新决 议通过，前一决议的支出限额和收入下限会自动在剩 ...

Group 1 - Gold futures experienced a significant drop today, with the latest Shanghai gold futures reported at 787.28 CNY per gram, reflecting a decline of 4.18% [1] - The opening price for today was 820.58 CNY per gram, with a maximum price reaching 828.74 CNY per gram and a minimum of 785.02 CNY per gram [1][4] - Short-term resistance levels for gold are identified between 840-845 CNY, while support levels are noted between 740-745 CNY [4] Group 2 - Recent interest rate futures indicate that traders have lowered the expectation for interest rate cuts this year from four times to three, each by 25 basis points [3] - The current federal funds rate remains in the range of 4.25%-4.50%, with the Federal Reserve maintaining its stance despite external pressures [3] - The probability of a rate cut in May is now below 5%, and the likelihood for June has decreased from 78% to 67% following comments from former President Trump [3]

此外，财报季也是美股市场的交易主线之一，下周包括特斯拉、谷歌在内的多家巨头公布的最新财报将成为美 股市场的重要考验。华尔街警告称，大型企业CEO的前景判断比以往任何时候都更重要，一旦释放更多悲观 预期或将加剧市场动荡。 美联储搅动市场 "解雇鲍威尔"风波搅动市场。 正值美股市场动荡之际，美国总统特朗普与美联储主席鲍威尔的矛盾彻底激化，进一步加剧了市场的紧张情 绪。另据日程安排，美联储将于北京时间下周四公布经济状况褐皮书，该报告将揭晓美联储对当下美国经济的 评估。 当前，关税政策的不确定性仍主导着市场情绪，下周三，美国、欧元区和英国将同步公布4月制造业与服务业 PMI初值。分析指出，本期PMI报告至关重要，在增长担忧加剧的环境下，贸易不确定性或已压制新订单。 本周，美股三大指数全线下挫，道指、纳指周跌幅均超过2.6%，标普500指数周跌幅达1.5%。 受美国掀起的"关税风暴"影响，素有"恐慌指数"之称的芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数（VIX）一度飙升至60， 目前虽回落至30左右，但仍远高于17.6的长期中位值。 当前，关于"解雇美联储主席鲍威尔"的事态进展正牵动着投资者情绪。 在鲍威尔的"鹰派"讲话彻底激怒特朗普 ...

当地时间4月4日，美国股市三大指数大幅收跌，标普500指数跌5.97%，创2020年3月以来最大单日跌 幅；本周收跌9.08%，创2020年3月以来最大单周跌幅。纳斯达克综合指数跌5.82%，较历史最高收盘纪 录下跌超过20%，确认进入技术性熊市区间。道琼斯工业平均指数跌5.5%，收盘较历史最高收盘纪录低 逾10%，确认进入修正区间。本周美国股市遭遇五年来最惨烈一周。 市场恐慌情绪进一步攀升，海外股市共振调整 嘉盛集团资深分析师Jerry Chen指出，美国特朗普政府的关税政策可能引发通胀风险，并且拖累全球经 济陷入衰退的概率也大幅提升。在特朗普宣布对等关税政策后，市场恐慌情绪进一步攀升。 当地时间4月4日，国际贵金属期货亦大幅收跌，纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的6月黄金期 价收盘下跌2.11%，本周累计下跌1.83%。当天5月交割的白银期货价格收跌幅7.57%，本周累计下跌 15.15%。 当天，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，美国关税可能导致通胀上升、经济增长放缓，美国失业风险上升。潜在 的关税可能会对通胀产生持续影响，美联储有条件等一等再考虑是否调整货币政策。 数据显示，衡量投资者恐慌情绪和市场风险的芝加 ...