本 文摘自：2025年5月26日发布的 宏观扰动再起，金属价格震荡运行 于嘉懿 ，资格证书编号： S0880522080001 刘小华 ，资格证书编号： S0880523120003 报告导读： 特朗普全面减税法案的最终落地、以及其关税威胁均存在不确定性，市场情 绪反复之下，金价或呈现震荡。国内宏观利好频出，或将对冲部分海外影响，不过仍需 关注淡季下游需求反馈，工业品价格预计震荡运行。 周期研判： 特朗普全面减税法案，在美众议院预算委员会获得通过，引发市场对于美财政赤字担忧，且特 朗普再度发动对欧盟等关税威胁，市场避险情绪上升，金价上行。然该法案的最终落地、以及特朗普关税 威胁均存在不确定性，市场情绪反复之下，金价或呈现震荡。同时国内宏观方面利好频出，或将对冲部分 海外影响，进入传统淡季，需关注下游对工业金属需求反馈，工业品价格预计震荡运行。 贵金属：市场情绪反复，金价或延续震荡。 5 月 22 日，美国总统特朗普的全面减税法案，在美国众议院 获得通过，引发市场对于美财政赤字的担忧，长期美债遭遇抛售，叠加周五特朗普提出对欧盟、苹果、三 星加征关税，美股下跌、美元指数单周下跌约 2% 。同时，据美国有线电视新闻 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices have created a dramatic market environment, with significant highs and lows impacting investors and consumers [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements - Gold prices experienced a sharp rise to a historical high followed by a sudden decline, causing losses for many investors and consumers [1]. - On May 21, gold prices rebounded sharply, indicating a volatile market [1]. - In the first quarter of 2025, global gold investment demand surged, with China's demand for gold bars and coins reaching the second-highest record in history [1]. Group 2: Market Influences - The volatility in gold prices is primarily driven by changes in market risk sentiment, influenced by uncertainties in US-China trade negotiations and regional conflicts [1]. - As negotiations progressed and tensions eased, market risk sentiment diminished, leading to a decline in gold prices [1][2]. - The relationship between gold prices and the US dollar is significant, with expectations of tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve potentially strengthening the dollar and suppressing gold prices [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Experts suggest that gold prices may enter a phase of high-level fluctuations in the medium to long term, influenced by central bank gold purchases and geopolitical uncertainties [2]. - Investors are advised to approach gold investments cautiously, avoiding impulsive decisions in response to market volatility [2].

黄金短线回踩是机会还是风险？ 关税再添变数，避险情绪能否再度发酵？黄金日内震荡走弱，短线回踩是机会还是风险？立即观看超V 推荐官Jason的分析，马上进入直播间>>> 相关链接 ...

或因一些投资者在美国假期前选择回补空头头寸，两油有所反弹，日内涨超1%，WTI原油期货先跌后涨，并在美盘时段急速拉升至61美元上方，最终收涨 1.56%，报61.74美元/桶。欧佩克+增产加剧了市场对原油供应过剩的担忧，但以色列对加沙的新一轮军事打击以及美伊核谈判陷入僵局也限制了油价跌幅。 油价上周走势偏震荡，周五下探60关口后反弹回升，大涨逾1%，一度逼近62关口，目前没有消息或者数据很难打破震荡走势，上方关注65一线的阻力。四 小时线，上周油价冲高64关口后回落，下方触及60关口后反弹回升，可以看出60关口存在支撑，油价处于布林带中上轨之间运行，KDJ有形成金叉的迹象， MACD金叉后向上运行，短线走势震荡偏强。 综合来看，目前油价处于震荡走势之中，暂时很难打破这种僵局，上周五在下探60关口后回升收涨逾1%，短线走势震荡偏强，日内操作上可以参考61-61.50 区域布局多单，看至63.50-64区域。 投资的首要原则是规避好风险，如果不能规避风险，那么赚再多的钱，有一天还是会回去，任何一个人成功都有其方法，而投资交易也必有其原则，积少成 多，以小损失博大是交易的根本，而有很多人却忘记了初衷，把利益放在眼前 ...

山海：市场避险情绪犹存，周内金银保持看涨趋势！ 国内燃油（2512合约）同样在2800之下走出调整，但是相对力度不大，目前收盘在2700附近，国内燃油不必看过分的调整空间，能走出力度就看2680支撑点 得失，不过可以按照趋势继续做多，再看2800高点，如果破位则看趋势调整，或有进一步下跌空间。所以，这个周期国内燃油趋势还是多，但需要看一下调 整力度和关键支撑点得失。 撰文/山海 上个周期黄金在3120确定底部以来，从3150开始上涨，目前截至最高在3365，单边上涨有210美金，很显然，在美债收益率创高，地缘局势不稳定的情况 下，黄金避险的情绪非常浓厚，短时间内只要市场风向不变，黄金还有较强的上涨空间，所以，本周黄金还是保持多头趋势，继续看上涨空间。前面讲过， 技术面内的上涨看至3350，3400，当前3350已到，那么，下一波的上涨力度可以看至3400之上，至于能否出现新高至3500，剩下的力度和空间则需要边看边 做。从技术面来看，在确定本周看涨方向后，周内的交易主思路保持低多看涨，日线周期的上涨空间就是看涨到布林上轨3400附近，如果后市能拉开布林上 轨压制点，那么布林开口就有可能会去3500高点。所以， ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 5 月 26 日星期一 | | 中证 500 | 上行 | 内企业境外直接上市资金管理，明确境外上市募集资金、减持或转让股份 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 所得资金原则上应汇回境内，股东因增持汇出资金如有剩余或交易未达成 | | | | | 时，应及时汇回境内。明确境外发行可转债和将可转债转为股票相关管理 | | | 中证 1000 | 上行 | 要求。今年超长期特别国债首只 50 年期品种发行落地，加权平均中标利 | | | | | 率为 2.1%，高于银行间债市同期限债券收益率，较 2 月同期限国债续发 | | 2 | 年期国债 | 震荡 | 行时的收益率低点上行约 19BP（基点）。受访人士认为，随着市场对关 | | | | | 税影响的逐步消化，债市交易逻辑重点聚焦供给压力和资金面情况。在降 | | 5 | 年期国债 | 震荡 | 准落地后，资金价格整体不降反升，进一步引起市场对宽货币持续性的担 | | | | | 忧。中美关税取得阶段性成果，外围市场企稳，市场避险情绪缓和，股指 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in gold prices due to increased market risk aversion following President Trump's tariff announcements and growing concerns over U.S. debt sustainability [1][3] - Gold prices surged nearly 2% on Friday, with a weekly increase of nearly 5%, driven by safe-haven investments amid fears regarding U.S. fiscal challenges and trade relations [1] - Upcoming economic events, including the release of the Federal Reserve's May policy meeting minutes and the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, are expected to influence market reactions and gold prices [3] Group 2 - The analysis indicates that gold has successfully broken through resistance levels of 3250 and 3320, showing a clear upward trend, although it faces strong resistance around 3370 [6] - The current market is experiencing a corrective phase after previous highs, with potential for further upward movement if stimulated by upcoming news [6] - The expected market behavior for the following week suggests a continuation of the upward trend, with key resistance at 3370 and support at 3320 [6][8]

Group 1 - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to renewed risk aversion driven by geopolitical tensions and concerns over U.S. fiscal health, with gold surpassing $3,300 per ounce [1][2] - The U.S. government's trade policies, particularly the proposed tariffs on the EU, have negatively impacted U.S. stock indices, leading to a decline in major tech stocks [2] - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, reflecting growing concerns over U.S. fiscal stability, which has increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2][4] Group 2 - Copper and oil prices have also risen significantly due to geopolitical risks and a weakening dollar, with WTI crude oil settling at $61.53 per barrel and Brent crude at $64.78 per barrel [3] - OPEC+ is expected to announce an increase in production, which may influence oil prices further, while the copper market has seen a price increase of over 5% in May [3] - The short-term impact of U.S. tariffs on metal exports is becoming evident, but low inventory levels are providing some support for metal prices [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock indices fell across the board due to Trump's new tariff policy, with U.S. Treasury yields also declining and the dollar index dropping [1] - Gold prices rose significantly as investors sought safe-haven assets amid escalating trade tensions, with June gold futures closing at $3,365.80 per ounce, up 2.15% [1] - The international gold price saw a cumulative increase of 5.6% for the week, marking the largest weekly gain in six weeks [1] Group 2 - Trump announced a proposal to impose a 50% tariff on goods from the EU starting June 1, causing significant declines in European stock indices, with major indices dropping over 2% [4] - The German DAX index fell to its lowest level in two weeks, reaching a low of 23,325.5 points during the trading day [4] - Trump indicated that a 25% tariff would be imposed on mobile manufacturers not producing in the U.S., specifically targeting Apple and Samsung [5][6]

金价可能会继续对围绕美国财政困境、贸易关系和地缘政治的头条新闻作出积极反应。 当地时间16日，穆迪将美国的信用评级从"AAA"降至"AA1"，理由是对36万亿美元债务的担忧。"历届 美国政府和国会都未能就扭转年度巨额财政赤字和利息成本上升趋势的措施达成一致。"穆迪在声明中 称。 根据美国国会预算办公室CBO的数据，未偿还的美国国债金额从2007年的4.5万亿美元飙升至今天的历 史高位，而美国公共债务总额与经济规模的比率从2007年的约35%上升到现在的100%。 近一周来，债券收益率的上升给更广泛的前景增加了一些复杂性。30年期国债收益率本周回升至5%以 上。从历史上看，当长期债券的收益率上升到这一关键水平时，将对家庭和企业借贷利率开始造成影 响。令人失望的20年期美国国债拍卖需求疲软表明投资者对美国长期资产的信心下降，引发了人们对其 管理债务能力的担忧。 债券投资者对持有美国长债所要求的回报也越来越高。美国10年期期限溢价 —— 即投资者对持有长债 而非一系列短债所要求的额外回报 —— 已升至接近1%，创2014年以来最高。这表明投资者对加大未来 举债规模计划的担忧。"目前的危险在于，这种财政现象会自我强化 ...