黄金市场再次迎来历史性时刻！1月26日，国际黄金价格势如破竹，纽约商品交易所黄金期货价格和伦敦现货黄金价格在盘中双双突破每盎司5100美元大 关，交投最活跃的2月期金一度逼近5108美元，单日涨幅超过2%，刷新了历史最高纪录。 这股强劲的上涨浪潮迅速席卷全球，国内黄金零售市场也应声而涨，多个知名品牌首饰金价单日跳涨超过20元人民币，每克价格一举突破1570元。 这股席卷全球的"黄金热"，核心驱动力在于不断升温的避险情绪。近期，国际地缘政治紧张局势加剧，不确定性笼罩市场，促使大量资金涌入黄金、白银等 传统避险资产以寻求庇护。 然而，也有分析提醒，金价在短期内涨幅巨大，存在技术性回调的可能，且若未来全球风险情绪显著改善或主要央行货币政策发生超预期转向，可能对金价 构成压力。 无论如何，突破5100美元的金价，已经将黄金推向了全球资产舞台的中央。它不再仅仅是装饰品或保守投资，更是动荡时代中，全球资本情绪和战略选择的 一面镜子。 对于国内消费者和投资者来说，在惊叹于金价新高的同时，更需要理性看待其中的机遇与风险，根据自身的财务状况和风险承受能力，做出审慎的决策。 这种快速跟涨，反映了国内金价与国际市场的紧密联动。对于 ...

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 01 月 26 日 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：局部行情 1 月 26 日，股市延续分化行情，上证指数依旧在 4125 点至 4160 点间窄幅震荡，而近期表现较好的双创板块 及中小微盘则迎来集体调整。权益回调的背景下，债市维持积极情绪，长端与超长端收益率多有下行，中短端受 到资金收敛的拖累，呈现窄幅震荡状态。 权益市场放量下跌。万得全 A下跌 0.68%，全天成交额 3.28 万亿元，较上周五（1 月 23 日）放量 1625 亿 元。港股方面，恒生指数上涨 0.06%，恒生科技下跌 1.24%。南向资金净流出 8.26 亿港元，其中腾讯控股、小米 集团分别净流入 10.15 亿港元和 8.22 亿港元，中国移动和紫金矿业则分别净流出 11.77 亿港元和 10.77 亿港元。 市场下跌风险不大，整体仍处于震荡上涨的通道中。今日全市成交额继续处于 3 万亿元以上，同时指数跌幅 不大，意味着在调整压力显现时，资金承接力量不弱。我们在《蓄势待发》中指出，2005 年以来万得全 A 在上涨 趋势中的量顶之后&突破震荡上沿后，基本不是 ...

（来源：半两财经） 1月26日，国际金价继续上涨。截至发稿时，COMEX黄金涨2.24%，报5091.3美元/盎司；现货黄金涨2.23%，报5094.01美元/盎司。美国东部时间1月25日 傍晚，COMEX黄金期货价格在电子盘交易中突破每盎司5000美元的历史性关口。 （全文871字，阅读需要3分钟） 记者｜张鑫 对于国际金价不断上涨，分析人士表示，支撑黄金上涨的核心逻辑仍在，全球格局的不确定性或许导致黄金价格依旧易涨难跌，但短期而言，金价波动率 恐将放大，投资者需警惕技术性回调风险。 （来源：半两财经） 1月26日，国际金价继续上涨。截至发稿时，COMEX黄金涨2.24%，报5091.3美元/盎司；现货黄金涨2.23%，报5094.01美元/盎司。美国东部时间1月25日 傍晚，COMEX黄金期货价格在电子盘交易中突破每盎司5000美元的历史性关口。 编辑｜张鑫 实习生｜王恋齐 26日早盘交易中，金价大幅上涨，上周已累计上涨8.5%，短期原因是美元走软提振了对贵金属的需求。作为衡量美元汇率的关键指标——彭博美元即期 指数下跌1.6%，创下5月以来最大单周跌幅，这使得黄金和白银对大多数买家来说更加便宜。此举更是 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have surged significantly due to geopolitical tensions and a weakening US dollar, with a notable increase in investment demand supporting the price rise [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Data - The US Q3 GDP annualized growth rate was revised to 4.4%, exceeding expectations of 4.3%, while the core PCE price index remained stable at 2.9% [2]. - Initial jobless claims for the week ending January 17 were reported at 200,000, lower than the expected 210,000, indicating a stable labor market [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Geopolitical tensions have intensified, leading to increased market anxiety and a potential reduction in reserve holdings by various governments [3]. - Several investment institutions, including major pension funds from Denmark and Sweden, have begun to reduce their holdings in US Treasuries, with India's holdings at a five-year low [3]. - Central banks globally continue to purchase gold, with Poland's central bank planning to buy 150 tons of gold, reflecting a shift towards gold as a reserve asset [3]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook for Gold - The ongoing geopolitical conflicts and the acceleration of de-dollarization are expected to support gold prices in the long term, as traditional pillars of stability are being questioned [4]. - The combination of a potential Fed rate cut cycle, increasing global uncertainties, and the trend of de-dollarization is likely to bolster demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4].

总结而言，投资者应密切关注本周联储会议后的鲍威尔表态，以及日元在 159 至 160 区间是否会出现实 质性的官方干预。在全球宏观定价逻辑发生结构性偏转的当下，资产的分化表现将愈发显著。ZFX山海 证券认为，通过跨市场的资金流向监测，能够更清晰地捕捉避险情绪下的结构性机会。建议交易者在汇 市干预风险与贵金属历史高位的复杂环境下，优先配置高防御性资产以平滑投资组合的波动。 1月26日，全球资产定价逻辑正经历一场深刻的避险重塑，现货黄金在周一交易时段呈现出势如破竹的 姿态，价格成功跨越每盎司 5000 美元的里程碑节点。这一波史诗级的涨势不仅是对格陵兰岛争议与伊 朗局势反复的直接反馈，更是由于美元指数触及四个月低点后，避险资金加速寻找安全边际所致。ZFX 山海证券认为，在多重宏观压力的共振下，黄金作为"硬通货"的溢价空间正被市场重新定义。 在汇率市场的多空博弈中，ZFX山海证券表示，日元的剧烈反弹成为了全球金融关注的焦点。由于纽约 联储被曝在上周五进行了"汇率检查"，日元兑美元汇率应声上涨超过 1% 并触及 153.99。这一动向释放 了美日当局可能进行联合干预的强烈信号，迫使此前一边倒的看空头寸大规模回撤。尽管 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term safe - haven situation has shifted from trade - war concerns to rising geopolitical risks. The weakening US employment and moderate inflation support the expectation of interest rate cuts [1]. - Geopolitical risks are on the rise, such as the US aircraft carrier strike group's movement to the Middle East, Iran's warning, and Trump's statements regarding Canada's trade agreement and the Greenland deal [1]. - In terms of the monetary attribute, the US employment is weakening, with a slight increase in initial jobless claims. The Fed cut interest rates in December 2025 and may cut once in 2026. Market expectations suggest a low probability of a January 2026 rate cut, with the next possible cut in June [1]. - Regarding the commodity attribute, Poland's central bank plans to buy up to 150 tons of gold. Silver is supported by tight supply, platinum has strong demand expectations from the hydrogen - energy platinum - based catalyst industry, and palladium has short - term demand resilience but long - term structural pressure from the fuel - vehicle market [1]. - It is expected that precious metals will show a short - term upward - trending oscillation, a medium - term high - level oscillation, and a long - term step - by - step upward trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [2]. - Price: International and domestic gold prices have increased. For example, the Comex gold active contract closed at $4983.10 per ounce, up 0.91% from the previous day and 8.30% from the previous week [2]. - Position and inventory: The positions of Comex gold, Shanghai gold futures, and gold T + D have changed, and the inventories of LBMA, Comex, and Shanghai gold futures have also shown some fluctuations [2]. 3.2 Silver - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [4]. - Price: International and domestic silver prices have risen significantly. The Comex silver active contract closed at $103.26 per ounce, up 7.32% from the previous day and 14.80% from the previous week [4]. - Position and inventory: The positions of Comex silver, Shanghai silver futures, and silver T + D have changed, and the inventories of LBMA, Comex, and Shanghai silver futures have also been adjusted [4]. 3.3 Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [6]. - Price: International and domestic platinum prices have increased. The NYMEX platinum active contract closed at $2627.10 per ounce, up 5.98% from the previous day and 8.75% from the previous week [7]. - Position and inventory: The position of the NYMEX platinum active contract has decreased slightly, and the inventory has also changed [7]. 3.4 Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [9]. - Price: International and domestic palladium prices have gone up. The NYMEX palladium active contract closed at $1945.50 per ounce, up 3.79% from the previous day and 4.29% from the previous week [9]. - Position and inventory: The position of the NYMEX palladium active contract has decreased slightly, and the inventory has changed [9]. 3.5 Key Fundamental Data of Precious Metals - Monetary attribute: The Federal Reserve's interest rates, balance sheet, M2, and other indicators have changed. The US labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, and trade also show different trends [10][12]. - Safe - haven attribute: The geopolitical risk index and VIX index are monitored, reflecting the current geopolitical situation and market volatility [12]. - Commodity attribute: The CRB commodity index and the exchange rate of the offshore RMB have changed, which have an impact on precious metals' prices [12]. 3.6 Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The probability of different interest - rate ranges at each Federal Reserve meeting from 2026 to 2027 is provided, showing the market's expectations for the Fed's interest - rate decisions [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market rose 2.08% last week, with precious metals leading the increase at 9.08%, non - ferrous metals and energy - chemicals rising 2.96% and 1.95% respectively, while agricultural products and black metals slightly declined by 0.04% and 0.53% [2][7]. - The US PCE data rebounded slightly, cooling the interest - rate cut expectations. The US dollar index significantly corrected last week, and the easing of the Greenland conflict boosted market risk appetite. The uncertainty brought by the Iranian situation is beneficial to precious metals and energy - chemicals, and the short - term commodity market may fluctuate strongly [2]. - In the short term, precious metals will continue to fluctuate upward, but need to beware of post - overbought corrections; non - ferrous metals may fluctuate strongly; black metals may fluctuate; energy prices may rebound but with limited space; the chemical industry may fluctuate strongly; and agricultural products may also fluctuate strongly [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Overall Market**: The commodity market rose 2.08% last week. Precious metals led the gain at 9.08%, non - ferrous metals and energy - chemicals rose 2.96% and 1.95% respectively, while agricultural products and black metals slightly declined by 0.04% and 0.53% [2][7]. - **Individual Varieties**: The top - rising varieties were silver, PTA, and gold, with increases of 11.04%, 8.57%, and 7.74% respectively; the top - falling varieties were glass, live pigs, and iron ore, with decreases of 3.54%, 3.46%, and 2.09% respectively [2][7]. - **Volatility**: The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market continued to rise, with styrene, live pigs, and gold having relatively large fluctuations [2][7]. - **Funds**: The overall market scale increased last week, with only the black metal sector experiencing capital outflows. Gold and silver received capital inflows of 24.4 billion and 12.7 billion respectively [2][7]. 3.2 Outlook for Different Sectors - **Precious Metals**: The US dollar index dropped significantly, and geopolitical disturbances increased market risk - aversion sentiment. The sector continued to fluctuate upward. The low inventory of silver also promoted the silver price. In the short term, the upward trend of the sector is hard to reverse, but post - overbought corrections should be watched out for [2]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: The US dollar index was weak, risk - aversion sentiment was high, and domestic policies aimed to expand domestic demand. The supply - side contraction risk supported prices, and the sector may fluctuate strongly in the short term [3]. - **Black Metals**: The apparent demand for rebar slightly declined, production increased, and inventory accumulated again. Steel mill profits were poor, and the resumption of production was affected. Iron ore port inventory increased significantly, and the structural contradiction needed to be resolved. The sector may fluctuate in the short term [3]. - **Energy**: The US Treasury's new sanctions on Iran and the production suspension of two major oil fields in Kazakhstan due to force majeure, along with the cold wave in the US, led to a rise in natural gas prices and increased demand for heating oil. Oil prices may rebound, but the rebound space is limited due to the inventory - accumulation pressure in Q1 [3]. - **Chemical Industry**: For polyester products, terminal demand declined, and there was an inventory - accumulation expectation around the Spring Festival, but supply - contraction expectations and positive market sentiment may lead to short - term strong fluctuations. For building materials, PVC may see capacity reduction and possible export - grabbing, with an expected upward shift in the center of gravity; glass may see seasonal inventory accumulation but may follow macro - sentiment fluctuations [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: The expectation of a South American bumper harvest is the main trading logic, but the slow progress of the new - season Brazilian soybean harvest may increase the pressure on US soybeans and soybean meal. The improvement of China - Canada relations may impact domestic soybean - meal prices. The supply - demand structure of Malaysian palm oil has improved, and the overall oilseeds and oils may fluctuate strongly in the short term [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - **Gold ETFs**: Most gold ETFs had a weekly return of around 7.5%. The total scale of gold ETFs was 29.5871 billion yuan, with a 4.42% increase, and the total trading volume increased by 82.85% [36]. - **Other ETFs**: The energy - chemical ETF had a 3.48% return, the soybean - meal ETF had a 0.92% return, the non - ferrous metal ETF had a - 0.52% return, and the silver fund had a 6.72% return [36][38]. The total scale of commodity ETFs was 31.8614 billion yuan, with a 3.99% increase, and the total trading volume increased by 49.13% [36].

上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货周一（1月26日）仓单日报显示，黄金期货总计103029千克，今日仓 单较上一日增加1020千克。 沪金主力盘内高位回落，周一（1月26日）黄金期货开盘价1113.00元/克，截至目前最高1151.70元/克， 最低1108.50元/克。截止发稿报1143.32元/克，涨幅3.67%，成交量为395962手，持仓为215820手，日持 仓增加9240手。 上海期货交易所黄金期货仓单日报(单位：千克) | 上期所指定交割金库 | 期货 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 103029 | 1020 | 美国与北约在格陵兰问题上的摩擦升级，加剧市场担忧。同时，俄乌谈判未取得突破，俄罗斯空袭导致 乌克兰大规模停电，进一步推升避险情绪。市场还担心美国可能对伊朗采取军事行动。不过，金价短线 涨幅较大，需要提防技术性回调行情。 ...

【黄金期货最新行情】 | 1月26日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 1143.32 | 3.67% | 395962 | 215820 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【基本面消息】 数据显示，1月26日上海黄金现货价格报价1143.05元/克，相较于期货主力价格（1143.32元/克）贴水 0.27元/克。 地缘风险助金属狂欢，纽约联储罕见"询价"日元，金价上破5000美元关口；美国三大股指收盘涨跌不 一，欧洲主要股指收盘涨跌不一；美债收益率集体下跌，10年期美债收益率跌1.57个基点报4.225% 【机构观点】 大越期货：地缘风险助金属狂欢 金价上破5000美元关口 今日关注美国11月耐用品订单环比初值、或公布美联储主席人选。特朗普称美国重兵调往伊朗，地缘担 忧再起，纽约联储罕见"询价"日元，全球动荡，金价继续刷新历史最高。沪金溢价扩大至3.7元/克左 右。避险情绪再度升温，金银比极低凸显金价性价比，金继续走强。沪金2604：1093-1135区间操作。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The tariff tension between the US and Europe has eased, but Trump's stance on the acquisition of Greenland remains tough, keeping the short - term risk - aversion sentiment high [2] - In South Africa, the phased load reduction continues, and the risk of power outages during peak night hours restricts the short - term increase in smelter operating rates [2] - The continuous strengthening of the US dollar against the South African rand partially offsets the local currency cost pressure, but a continued depreciation of the rand will suppress marginal supply in US dollars [2] - The EU postponed the 2035 internal combustion engine ban and strengthened vehicle exhaust emission standards, increasing the substitution demand for platinum in automotive catalysts by about 450,000 ounces this year [2] - Although global passenger car sales are moderately adjusted due to recession concerns, the rising penetration of hybrid and hydrogen fuel cell commercial vehicles may improve the medium - to - long - term demand curve for platinum [2] - The IEA's latest hydrogen outlook confirms that the cumulative installed capacity of PEM electrolysers is expected to exceed 17GW by 2030, providing potential upside for platinum prices [2] - In the medium - to - long - term, the industrial logic of platinum and palladium dominates the trading rhythm, and the uncertainty of South African power supply and Russian exports, along with the implementation of new vehicle emission policies, make platinum more resilient than palladium [2] - The differentiation in the supply - demand pattern may continue to drive the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" market trend [2] - For London platinum, the upper resistance is at $2900 per ounce, and the lower support is at $2700 per ounce; for London palladium, the upper resistance is at $2100 per ounce, and the lower support is at $1900 per ounce [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum主力合约 is 744.70 yuan/gram, up 65.75 yuan; the closing price of the palladium主力合约 is 534.80 yuan/gram, up 35.80 yuan [2] - The platinum主力合约持仓 volume is 10387.00 hands, down 277.00 hands; the palladium主力合约持仓 volume is 3179.00 hands, up 90.00 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum spot price (Pt9995) is 733.25 yuan, up 51.75 yuan; the Yangtze River palladium spot average price is 0.00 yuan, down 463.00 yuan [2] - The platinum主力合约 basis is - 11.45 yuan/gram, down 14.00 yuan; the palladium主力合约 basis is - 534.80 yuan/gram, down 498.80 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The platinum CFTC non - commercial long positions are 9966.00 contracts, down 243.00 contracts; the palladium CFTC non - commercial long positions are 3003.00 contracts, down 342.00 contracts [2] - The estimated total annual supply of platinum in 2025 is 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; the estimated total annual supply of palladium in 2025 is 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons [2] - The estimated total annual demand for platinum in 2025 is 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; the estimated total annual demand for palladium in 2025 is 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons [2] 3.4 Macro Data - The US dollar index is 97.50, down 0.78; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.92%, down 0.03% [2] - The VIX volatility index is 16.09, up 0.45 [2] 3.5 Industry News - Trump said the US is deploying troops to Iran, imposing a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran, and sanctioning entities related to Iran's energy and shipping systems [2] - Trump said the US expects to gain "sovereignty" over the area of US military bases in Greenland [2] - Some Democratic senators will vote against the government funding bill, increasing the possibility of a partial government "shutdown" at the end of January [2] - Trump may announce the new Fed chair this week, and Rick Rieder's probability of being nominated has risen from 4% to about 50% [2] - The US January S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary value is 51.9, slightly higher than the previous value; the Services PMI preliminary value is flat at 52.5; the Composite PMI preliminary value rises slightly to 52.8. All three are slightly lower than expected. The one - year inflation expectation in January 2026 is revised down to 4%, the lowest in a year [2] 3.6 Key Events to Watch - Atlanta Fed GDPNow economic growth forecast at 23:30 on January 26 [2] - US M2 money supply at 02:00 on January 28 [2] - Fed interest rate decision and monetary policy statement at 03:00 on January 29 [2] - US November trade balance (imports and exports) at 21:30 on January 29 [2] - US PPI year - on - year (%) at 21:30 on January 30 [2]