Group 1 - The European stock markets experienced a decline due to President Trump's recent tariff threats regarding Greenland, leading to increased risk aversion among investors [1] - The three major European stock indices all fell, with the UK FTSE 100 down by 0.39%, France's CAC40 down by 1.78%, and Germany's DAX down by 1.34% [1] Group 2 - European automotive stocks saw significant declines, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Automobiles & Parts index dropping over 2% on the same day [2] - Major German car manufacturers such as BMW, Volkswagen, and Mercedes-Benz experienced stock price drops of over 3% and 2%, respectively [2] - Analysts noted that the highly globalized supply chain of the automotive industry makes it particularly vulnerable to tariff policies, which could impose substantial pressure on European car manufacturers [2] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs economists indicated that Trump's tariff threats could lead to a GDP decline of 0.1% to 0.2% in affected European countries, with Germany facing the largest impact of 0.2% to 0.3% [3] - The overall Eurozone GDP is projected to be affected by a 0.1% decline due to these tariff threats [3] Group 4 - In the oil market, Brent crude oil futures saw a slight decline of 0.30%, closing at $63.94 per barrel, as concerns over supply disruptions in the Middle East eased [4] - U.S. oil futures did not have a closing price due to the U.S. financial market being closed [4] Group 5 - The threat of tariffs from the U.S. has increased demand for safe-haven investments, leading to record high prices for gold and silver futures [5] - Gold futures reached a peak of $4698 per ounce, while silver futures surpassed $94 per ounce during trading [5] - Trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange for gold and silver was halted early, resulting in no closing prices for the day [5]

张尧浠：避险加关税再起忧虑、黄金增强看涨前景预期 上交易日周一(1月19日)：国际黄金受美国总统特朗普在格陵兰岛争端中对多个欧洲国家发出加征关税警告所激发的避险需求推动，高开高走，再度收 阳，维持多头看涨前景，但目前走势触及上升趋势线压力附近，也有短线回落调整的需求，不过，如有回撤调整，下方各短周期均线支撑，也是再度入场 看涨的机会，反之，如继续反弹走强收阳至趋势线阻力上方，则将顺势跟进继续看涨上行。 具体走势上，金价自亚市高开于4615.41美元/盎司，先行录得日内低点4615.08美元，之后反弹拉升，触及日内高点4689.23美元，半小时内即出高低点， 在之后，多头动力有所减弱，并维持基本维持在4655-4677区间内持续盘整，一直到日收盘，收于4671.91美元，相对于上周五收盘价4594.07美元，周振幅 95.16美元，收涨77.84美元，涨幅1.69%。 展望今日周二(1月20日)：国际黄金开盘走势有所偏弱，面临阻力调整需求，和日内短周期的背离形态，以及美元指数早盘的止跌走强压力，但多头仍具 优势和前景。短期如有进一步回撤，下方关注各周期的均线支撑，也都是入场看涨机会。 日内无重点关注数据及事件， ...

Market Overview - US stock futures showed a significant decline with Dow Jones futures down 0.83%, S&P 500 futures down 0.88%, and Nasdaq 100 futures down 1.09% due to the market being closed for a holiday [1] - Major European stock indices also fell, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down 1.72%, FTSE 100 down 0.39%, CAC 40 down 1.78%, DAX 30 down 1.34%, and FTSE MIB down 1.32% [1] Precious Metals - Gold prices reached a historical high, with spot gold rising by 2% to $4690.88 per ounce, currently reported at $4675.76 per ounce [3] - Silver prices also surged over 5%, reaching $94.726 per ounce, currently reported at $94.479 per ounce [4] Economic Concerns - Economists warned that if President Trump quickly advances new tariff threats, the UK could face a recession risk, with GDP projected to decline by 0.3% to 0.75% [6] - The World Bank estimated that if tariffs are raised to 25% starting in June, the UK economy could suffer a loss of £21.6 billion [6] - Current quarterly growth for the UK economy is only 0.2% to 0.3%, and a sudden shock could trigger a recession [6] Federal Reserve Developments - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is set to attend a Supreme Court hearing regarding the potential dismissal of Fed Governor Cook, marking an unusual public statement of support [6] - The Supreme Court is reviewing whether President Trump has the authority to dismiss Cook, who was appointed by former President Biden [6] - According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January is 5%, with a 95% chance of maintaining current rates; by March, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut rises to 20.7% [7]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：期货日报 早上好！ 欧洲股市集体下跌 周一，美股因假期休市，欧洲股市集体下跌。其中，欧洲斯托克50指数跌1.77%，英国富时100指数跌 0.44%，法国CAC40指数跌1.78%，德国DAX30指数跌1.22%，富时意大利MIB指数跌1.32%。 WTI原油期货收涨0.19%，报59.43美元/桶。布伦特原油期货收涨0.08%，报64.18美元/桶。 特朗普拒绝说明是否会以武力夺取格陵兰岛 据央视报道，当地时间1月19日，美国总统特朗普在接受采访时拒绝说明是否会使用武力夺取格陵兰 岛，称"无可奉告"。 在采访中，特朗普还指责部分欧洲领导人反对美国夺取格陵兰岛，称欧洲应将注意力放在俄罗斯与乌克 兰冲突上，而非格陵兰岛问题。他同时明确表示，若未就格陵兰岛问题达成协议，将"百分之百"落实对 欧洲国家的关税措施。 欧盟将召开紧急峰会应对特朗普"夺岛"关税 据新华社报道，欧盟委员会发言人奥洛夫·吉尔19日表示，欧盟将于22日在比利时布鲁塞尔召开紧急峰 会，讨论美国总统特朗普宣布向反对美得到格陵兰岛的欧洲国家加征关税等问题，并评估欧盟可能采取 的反 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - U.S. stock markets were closed due to a holiday, but futures indicated a significant decline, with Dow Jones futures down 0.83%, S&P 500 futures down 0.88%, and Nasdaq 100 futures down 1.09% [1] - European stock indices also experienced collective declines, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down 1.72%, FTSE 100 down 0.39%, CAC 40 down 1.78%, DAX 30 down 1.34%, and FTSE MIB down 1.32% [1] Group 2: Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices reached historical highs due to increased safe-haven demand triggered by Trump's tariff threats against Europe, with spot gold rising 2% to $4690.88 per ounce and currently at $4675.76 per ounce [3] - Spot silver increased over 5%, reaching $94.726 per ounce and currently at $94.479 per ounce [3] Group 3: Economic Impact of Tariffs - Economists warned that if President Trump quickly advances new tariff threats, the UK could face a recession risk, with GDP projected to decline by 0.3% to 0.75% [4] - The World Bank estimated that if tariffs are raised to 25% starting in June, the UK economy could suffer a loss of £21.6 billion [5] - The Chief Economist for Capital Economics indicated that the UK economy is currently growing at only 0.2% to 0.3% per quarter, and a sudden shock could trigger a recession [6] Group 4: Federal Reserve Developments - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is set to attend a Supreme Court hearing regarding the potential dismissal of Fed Governor Cook, marking an unusual public statement of support for Cook [6] - The Supreme Court is reviewing whether President Trump has the authority to dismiss Cook, who was appointed by former President Biden [6] - According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January is 5%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 95% [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the rising prices of precious metals, particularly gold and silver, driven by geopolitical tensions and increased demand for safe-haven assets [1][2]. - On January 19, 2026 gold futures rose by 1.77%, closing at $4,676.70 per ounce, while silver futures for March delivery increased by 6.49%, closing at $94.28 per ounce [1][3]. - The announcement by U.S. President Trump regarding the imposition of tariffs on goods from several European countries has heightened concerns over transatlantic trade relations, further boosting the demand for precious metals [1]. Group 2 - The World Economic Forum's latest report indicates that global economic leaders view geopolitical economic confrontation as the primary risk for the year, which may contribute to sustained strong upward momentum in precious metal prices [2]. - The market sentiment has shifted from focusing solely on growth or inflation to prioritizing policy uncertainty as a key driver, suggesting potential volatility in the precious metals market [1].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 美东时间1月19日星期一，美股因假期休市，但美股期指跌势明显。其中，道琼斯指数期货跌0.83%， 标普500指数期货跌0.88%，纳斯达克100指数期货跌1.09%。 欧洲主要股指集体下跌，欧洲斯托克50指数跌1.72%，英国富时100指数跌0．39%，法国CAC40指数跌 1.78%，德国DAX30指数跌1．34%，富时意大利MIB指数跌1.32%。 黄金和白银价格双双触及历史新高 特朗普对欧洲的关税威胁等因素引发避险需求，黄金和白银价格双双触及历史新高。 现货黄金一度上涨2%，达到4690．88美元/盎司，现报4675.76美元/盎司。 现货白银涨超5%，达到94.726美元/盎司，现报94.479美元/盎司。 来源：中国基金报 大家好，一起来关注昨夜今晨的海外股市市场情况。 有经济学家警告称，如果美国总统特朗普迅速推进新的关税威胁，英国将面临经济衰退风险。据凯投宏 观测算，英国GDP将下降0.3%至0.75%。 凯投宏观英国首席经济学家保罗·戴尔斯表示："目前英国经济每季度仅增长0.2%至0.3%，若冲击一次性 到来，可能引发经济衰退。" ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold and silver prices have reached historical highs due to increased demand for safe-haven assets triggered by tariff threats from President Trump and other factors [5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 19, 2023, U.S. stock markets were closed for a holiday, but futures indicated a downward trend, with the Dow Jones futures down 0.83%, S&P 500 futures down 0.88%, and Nasdaq 100 futures down 1.09% [2]. - European stock indices also experienced declines, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down 1.72%, FTSE 100 down 0.39%, CAC 40 down 1.78%, DAX 30 down 1.34%, and FTSE MIB down 1.32% [2]. Group 2: Precious Metals Prices - Spot gold prices surged by 2% to reach $4,690.88 per ounce, currently reported at $4,675.76 per ounce [6]. - Spot silver prices increased by over 5%, reaching $94.726 per ounce, currently reported at $94.479 per ounce [8]. Group 3: Economic Implications - Economists warn that if President Trump rapidly advances new tariff threats, the UK could face a recession risk, with GDP potentially declining by 0.3% to 0.75% [10]. - According to the World Bank, if tariffs are raised to 25% starting in June, the UK economy could suffer a loss of £21.6 billion [11]. - The Chief Economist at Capital Economics, Paul Dales, noted that the UK economy is currently growing at only 0.2% to 0.3% per quarter, and a sudden shock could trigger a recession [12]. Group 4: Federal Reserve Developments - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is set to attend a Supreme Court hearing regarding the potential dismissal of Fed Governor Cook by President Trump, marking a rare public statement of support for Cook [13]. - Powell previously indicated that the Trump administration had issued subpoenas to the Fed and threatened criminal charges, which he described as a pretext to force significant interest rate cuts [13]. - According to CME's FedWatch, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January is 5%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 95% [13].

Core Viewpoint - Gold and silver prices have reached historical highs, driven by geopolitical tensions and market uncertainties, particularly following the announcement of punitive tariffs by the U.S. on several European countries [3][4][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 19, gold prices surged by 1.73% to $4,675.213 per ounce, with an intraday high of $4,690 per ounce [3]. - Silver prices increased by 3.75%, reaching $93.514 per ounce, with a peak of $94.12 per ounce during the day [3]. - COMEX gold futures rose by 1.81% to $4,678.4 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures jumped by 5.44% to $93.35 per ounce [3]. Group 2: Factors Behind the Surge - The price increase was triggered by U.S. President Trump's announcement of a 10% tariff on goods from eight European countries, which could rise to 25% if disputes continue [4][5]. - This geopolitical move has heightened market fears and increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver [5][6]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the recent price surge reflects both immediate reactions to geopolitical risks and underlying structural trends in the precious metals market [6]. - The long-term outlook for gold remains bullish due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and central bank gold purchases, despite potential short-term volatility [7]. - Silver's price dynamics are more complex, influenced by industrial demand and potential supply constraints, which may support higher prices in the long run [7][8].

期货研究报告 贵金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 贵金属 | 周报 · 2026 年 1 月 19 日 贵金属周报 专业研究·创造价值 避险需求给予金价支撑 核心观点 上周金价上行后呈现高位震荡运行，纽约金于 4600 美元一线震 荡。1 月上旬白银较黄金上涨明显，金银比值下行明显，后半周白银 逐渐走弱，短期资金了结意愿较强。目前已处于 50 左右，为近 14 年 以来的低位，这很大程度上将促使套利资金向黄金流入。短期可关注 金银比值的向上修复。 拉长周期来看，本轮金价上涨的主要动力来自于流动性，内外宏 观宽松的背景下，12 月以来流动性持续上升，白银和有色持续上升， 做多氛围浓厚，黄金也随之上行。短期宏观氛围冷却，资金了结意愿 上升，流动性下降，金价或有所回落，但盘面走弱导致全市场的避险 需求升温，将给予金价支撑。此外，可关注月底美联储议息会议。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期 ...