Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the recent signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding potential interest rate cuts have significantly influenced gold prices, reaching a peak of $3,378 per ounce before slightly declining to $3,364 per ounce [1] - The two-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 12 basis points to 3.85%, while the dollar index decreased by 0.7%, creating a favorable environment for gold as a zero-yield asset [3] - Despite the historical high in gold prices, real interest rates remain positive, suggesting that the current rise in gold prices is driven more by investor risk aversion rather than a reassessment of gold's intrinsic value [3] Group 2 - The market consensus indicates an expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut in September, but there is a 30 basis point divergence regarding the timing and magnitude of a second cut [3] - The widening spread between gold and silver prices has drawn market attention, with silver's industrial properties potentially offering greater upside during a rate cut period [3] - UBS Wealth Management's latest report emphasizes that long-term support factors for gold remain strong, including central bank purchases exceeding 1,000 tons for three consecutive years and unresolved geopolitical risk premiums [4] Group 3 - The current investment strategies are shifting, as hedge funds have reduced their net long positions in gold to a six-week low, while silver management funds have increased their holdings [3] - The perception of gold as a stable safe-haven asset may lead to unforeseen risks, prompting the need for more complex hedging strategies, such as using gold options for spread combinations or silver futures for volatility arbitrage [4]

经济数据好坏参半，黄金走势扑朔迷离 周五(8月22日)亚市早盘，现货黄金基本持稳，现报3337美元/盎司附近。周四(8月21日)，现货黄金价格 小幅下跌0.3%，收于每盎司3338.45美元，而12月交割的美国期金也下滑0.2%，结算价报3386.50美元。 这一跌势的背后，是美元指数强势上涨0.45%，创下两周新高，使得以美元计价的黄金对海外买家变得 更加昂贵。 周四，亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克表示，仍预计今年仅降息一次，但承认经济不确定性大，政策需单向 推进以维持公信力。他指出当前利率"略微限制性"，经济增长相对温和，但明年可能反弹。 美联储主席鲍威尔预定周五在杰克逊霍尔举办的全球央行年会上，发表经济展望和美联储政策立场，预 计鲍威尔演讲将引发市场重大行情。 Marex分析师Edward Meir说："如果鲍威尔暗示9月降息，我不认为会发生太多变化，因为市场早就已经 预期这件事将发生。" Meir补充说："但如果鲍威尔说我们10月、11月或12月会再次降息，我想美元就有可能转弱，黄金就有 机会上涨。" Kitco Metals资深分析师Jim Wyckoff说："我认为，鲍威尔可能会略偏鸽派一点点，这将对黄 ...

Report Information - Report Name: Precious Metals Daily Review - Date: August 22, 2025 - Research Team: Macro Financial Research Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [2] Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core View - Gold's safe - haven demand is boosted by Trump 2.0 new policies and concerns about US fiscal and financial discipline, with increased volatility but a good medium - term upward trend. London gold may trade in the range of $3120 - $3500 per ounce before rising again. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions. [4] - The restructuring of the international trade currency system and expectations of Fed rate cuts support the long - and medium - term bull markets of gold, but high price - to - earnings ratios increase price volatility. In the short term, London gold is expected to consolidate in the $3120 - $3500 per ounce range. Central bank easing expectations may support silver prices in the medium - to - short term. [5] Summary by Directory 1. Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook Intraday Market - Allegations of mortgage fraud against Fed Governor Lisa Cook by the head of the US Federal Housing Finance Agency and Trump's call for her resignation, along with concerns about US fiscal and financial discipline, drove up London gold prices to around $3340 per ounce. However, the Fed's July meeting minutes limited the price increase. Gold's safe - haven demand is boosted, and it is expected to trade in a wide range before rising again. [4] Medium - term Market - Since late April, London gold has been trading in the range of $3100 - $3500 per ounce. The decline in international trade uncertainty weakens gold's safe - haven demand, while the restructuring of the international trade currency system and Fed rate - cut expectations support the price. The ratio of London gold to silver has stabilized after a correction. Gold's long - and medium - term bull markets are supported, but price volatility is increasing. London gold is expected to continue to consolidate in the $3120 - $3500 per ounce range. Central bank easing expectations may support silver prices. [5] Domestic Precious Metals Market - The Shanghai Gold Index closed at 776.93, up 0.32%; the Shanghai Silver Index closed at 9182, up 1.31%; Gold T + D closed at 771.66, up 0.24%; Silver T + D closed at 9144, up 1.35%. [5] 2. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - to - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets. [7][9][11] 3. Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - Trump called on Fed Governor Cook to resign, and Cook refused to resign under pressure. [17] - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that almost all policymakers thought it appropriate to keep the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.50%. [17] - Russia expects to continue supplying oil to India, and hopes to hold a tripartite meeting with India and China soon. [17]

周四(8月21日)亚市盘中，现货黄金在上一交易日大涨后略微回落，目前金价位于3344美元/盎司附近。FXStreet首席分 析师Valeria Bednarik撰文，对黄金技术前景进行分析。 Bednarik写道，黄金获得了上行动力，但仍受3350美元/盎司附近的卖盘限制。金价目标是攻克3350美元/盎司区域。 周三，现货黄金大幅攀升，美国彭博社分析称，美国总统特朗普呼吁美联储理事库克辞职，引发人们对美联储独立性 的新担忧，提振避险需求，黄金价格因此上涨。 现货黄金周三收盘大涨32.69美元，涨幅近1%，报3348.24美元/盎司。 北京时间周四21:45，标普全球(S&P Global)将公布美国8月份制造业和服务业采购经理人指数(PMI)初值，这份重量级 报告可能对金价走势产生重要影响。 经济学家预计，美国8月标普全球制造业PMI初值为49.5，此前7月终值为49.8。 此外，美国8月标普全球服务业PMI初值预计为54.2，此前7月终值为55.7。 (现货黄金4小时图 来源：FXStreet) FXStreet分析师Eren Sengezer指出，7月份的服务业PMI为55.7，如果8月数据出现大幅下滑， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Shanghai gold and silver main contracts closed slightly higher, maintaining a narrow - range oscillation during the session. Trump pressured Fed officials again, which may marginally affect the US dollar's credit and support the safe - haven demand for gold. The precious metals market was pressured by the spill - over effect of steel and aluminum tariffs, mainly driven by market sentiment. The market is currently focused on the cease - fire expectation between Russia and Ukraine and the expected trading around the Fed's interest - rate cut at the Jackson Hole meeting on Friday. If Powell further releases hawkish signals, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields may continue to rebound, putting pressure on the upward movement of gold prices. In the short term, if there is no significant progress in the geopolitical situation, the precious metals market is expected to continue to oscillate within a range. In the medium term, interest - rate cuts will provide strong bottom support for gold prices. If the Russia - Ukraine negotiations make substantial progress, it may further release the callback pressure on gold prices; otherwise, it may increase the demand for safe - haven buying. Operationally, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for gold in the short term and focus on short - term rebound trading opportunities for silver. The focus range for the Shanghai gold 2510 contract is 770 - 800 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai silver 2510 contract is 9000 - 9200 yuan/kilogram [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Shanghai gold main contract closing price (daily, yuan/gram): 775.12, up 2.44; Shanghai silver main contract closing price (daily, yuan/kilogram): 9162, up 120 - Main contract positions: Shanghai gold (daily, lots): 183215, down 8259; Shanghai silver (daily, lots): 307098, down 11580 - Net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract (daily, lots): 162201, up 1447; Net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai silver main contract (daily, lots): 116447, up 2105 - Warehouse receipt quantity: Gold (daily, kilograms): 36642, up 60; Silver (daily, kilograms): 1115055, down 25144 [3] 3.2 Spot Market - Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network gold spot price (daily, yuan/gram): 773.25, up 4.55; Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network silver spot price (daily, yuan/kilogram): 9143, up 117 - Basis of Shanghai gold main contract (daily, yuan/gram): - 1.87, up 2.11; Basis of Shanghai silver main contract (daily, yuan/kilogram): - 19, down 3 [3] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Gold ETF holdings (daily, tons): 962.21, down 3.15; Silver ETF holdings (daily, tons): 15339.66, down 16.94 - Gold CFTC non - commercial net positions (weekly, contracts): 229485, down 7565; Silver CTFC non - commercial net positions (weekly, contracts): 44268, down 6390 - Total gold supply (quarterly, tons): 1313.01, up 54.84; Total silver supply (annually, million troy ounces): 987.8, down 21.4 - Total gold demand (quarterly, tons): 1313.01, up 54.83; Total global silver demand (annually, million ounces): 1195, down 47.4 [3] 3.4 Option Market - Historical volatility: 20 - day for gold (daily, %): 10.17, down 0.53; 40 - day for gold (daily, %): 10.6, up 0.12 - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold (daily, %): 16.54, down 0.82; Implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold (daily, %): 16.55, down 0.81 [3] 3.5 Industry News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that almost all policymakers supported not cutting interest rates in July, with only two opposing. There were differences among Fed officials regarding inflation, employment risks, and the impact of tariffs on inflation, but most believed the risk of rising inflation was higher than the risk of falling employment. - US President Trump called on Fed Governor Cook to resign immediately, increasing pressure on the Fed. The FHFA Director Pult accused Cook of fraud in two mortgages and called on the Justice Department to investigate. - The CRFB's latest forecast showed that due to tax, spending legislation, and tariff policies, the US federal budget deficit will reach $22.7 trillion in the next decade, nearly $1 trillion higher than the CBO's January forecast. - ECB President Lagarde said that the euro - zone economic growth may slow down this quarter. Although the recent agreement with the US reduced uncertainty, the global trade situation remains unclear [3]

●FPG最新市场脱水消息： 1. 美国彭博社分析称，美国总统特朗普呼吁美联储理事库克辞职，引发人们对美联储独立性的新担忧，提振避险需求，黄金价格因此上涨。 2. 彭博社指出，如果库克辞职，特朗普将有机会任命一位立场更为鸽派的理事。不过，库克暗示她有意继续留在美联储。 央行购买黄金以及流入交易所交易基金(ETF)的资金支撑了黄金价格，包括瑞银集团( UBS Group AG)管理部门在内的许多分析师都认为，黄金还有 进一步上涨的空间。 ●FPG fortune prime global分析师观点： ●今日关键指标（事件）： 如果鲍威尔立场鸽派，这对黄金有利，因为黄金不产生利息。如果他立场鸽派，金价需要突破3350美元/盎司，并最终重新测试3400美元/盎司。上 个月美联储政策制定者会议纪要显示，官员们强调通胀风险超过了对劳动力市场的担忧。根据芝加哥商品交易所(CME)的"美联储观察工具"，交易 员目前预计9月降息25个基点的可能性为 83%。今年以来，黄金价格已上涨逾25%。4月份金价曾创下历史新高。 FPG特约分析师（chad）观点： 未来几周金价将维持高位。我们预计2025年剩余时间内金价将在3200美元/ ...

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 8 月 21 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 俄乌战争停火前景削弱贵金属的避险需求，同时市场预计美联储主席鲍威尔 可能不会在周末 Jackson-Hole 全球央行年会上对第二阶段降息步伐给出清晰指 引，美元指数反弹至 98.3 而伦敦黄金回调至 3320 美元/盎司附近，波动性更大的 白银则回撤到 37.2 美元/盎司附近。特朗普 2.0 新政推动全球政经格局加速重组 且进入乱纪元模式，黄金的避险需求得到极大提振；目前看黄金波动性上升但中 线上涨趋势保持良好，伦敦黄金或在 3120-35 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 8 月 21 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 观望 | 美股下挫，避险需求上升，市场关 注杰克逊霍尔会议 | | 铜 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 国内旺季临近，产业支撑增强 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：昨日金价在亚洲盘后持续回升，这很大程度上是由 ...

Group 1: Lao Pu Gold - Lao Pu Gold reported a net profit of 2.35 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 12.354 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 251% [1] - The adjusted net profit grew by 290.6% compared to the previous year [1] - The company has established 29 stores in top commercial centers and has a loyal membership base of approximately 480,000, an increase of 130,000 members since the end of last year [1] Group 2: iQIYI - iQIYI's total revenue for the second quarter of 2025 was 6.63 billion yuan, reflecting an 11% year-on-year decline [2] - Membership service revenue accounted for 4.09 billion yuan, while online advertising service revenue was 1.27 billion yuan [2] - The decline in revenue may indicate a shift in the online video industry towards a more competitive landscape [2] Group 3: Pop Mart - Pop Mart plans to expand into emerging markets such as the Middle East and South Asia, while continuing to develop flagship stores in major cities like Paris, Sydney, Milan, and New York [3] - The company expects to have over 200 overseas stores by the end of the year [3] - This strategy reflects Pop Mart's accelerated global expansion and aims to enhance brand exposure and high transaction value conversion [3] Group 4: Amer Sports - Amer Sports reported a 23% year-on-year revenue increase for the second quarter, reaching 1.236 billion USD (approximately 8.878 billion yuan) [4] - Revenue in the Greater China region surged by 42% to 410 million USD [4] - The growth in the Greater China market highlights the strong demand for sports consumption, positioning it as a key growth driver for the company [4]

来源：江苏新闻广播 当地时间周二，国际金价下跌，跌至两周多来最低水平。 国内部分品牌金饰克价跌至979元/克 记者注意到，国内部分品牌金饰克价跌至979元/克。截至发稿，周六福足金999价格为979元/克，足金 999.9为989元/克；周生生足金饰品价格为999元/克；老庙、周大福均为1002/克。 截至收盘，纽约商品交易所12月黄金期价收于每盎司3358.7美元，跌幅为0.57%。 | 今日黄金最新价格 | | 单位:元/克 更新时间:08-20 | | --- | --- | --- | | ** 周大福 | 周六福 | 膳 周生生 | | 1002.00 | 979.00 | 999.00 | | 金条价格 992.00 | 金条价格 874.00 | 金条价格 884.00 | | 周大生 | 册 潮宏基 | ■ 六福珠宝 | | 1002.00 | 1002.00 | 1002.00 | | 铂金价格 541.00 | 铂金价格 541.00 | 金条价格 992.00 | | 的 老凤祥 | 命 老庙黄金 | 6 中国黄金 | | 1000.00 | 997.00 | 771.80 | | 足金 ...