Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. Treasury auctions will be a critical variable for market dynamics, as strong demand could lower yields and support the dollar, while weak demand may raise concerns about U.S. debt and weaken the dollar [1] Auction Details - The U.S. is scheduled to auction $69 billion in two-year notes on Tuesday, $70 billion in five-year notes on Wednesday, and $44 billion in seven-year notes on Thursday [1] - Strong demand in these auctions could alleviate market anxiety, potentially leading to a decline in Treasury yields and an increase in the dollar's value [1] Market Implications - If demand is weak, particularly from foreign institutions, it could reignite concerns regarding U.S. debt issues, resulting in rising yields and a weakening dollar [1]

Core Insights - The decline in the US dollar index and concerns over the US fiscal and economic outlook have contributed to a significant increase in gold prices, with expectations of over 3% growth for the week [2] - Political uncertainty has heightened demand for gold, which is seen as a safe-haven asset, especially as other assets like the dollar face pressure [2] - The passage of Trump's tax and spending bill in the House has raised concerns about increasing US government debt, further weakening the dollar [2] Market Data - Current gold prices are reported at $3324.69 per ounce, with a daily high of $3334.27 and a low of $3286.89 [1] - Other gold-related prices include: - Gold T+D: 775.60 yuan/gram - Paper gold: 768.17 yuan/gram - Shanghai gold futures: 780.10 yuan/gram [1] Technical Analysis - The technical outlook for gold indicates a potential correction after a series of gains, with support levels identified at 3280 and 3293 [2] - The next upward target for gold is projected to be around 3400, with a bullish trend supported by moving averages and Bollinger Bands [2] - The market remains in a strong bullish cycle, with key resistance levels at 3315, 3340, 3365, 3380, and 3400 [2]

金十数据5月21日讯，巴克莱分析师在一份报告中称，美元近期可能进一步下跌，不过在美国经济相对 有弹性的情况下，跌幅可能有限。债市波动正在为美元创造不利环境，而美国贸易政策失误、围绕关税 的言论转变或疲弱数据可能进一步削弱美元。不过，分析师预计美元不会大幅贬值。他们说，最近关税 的降级意味着美国的经济损失可能比人们担心的要小。除了短期内对美国预算赤字的不安之外，特朗普 的财政宽松计划比他选择财政紧缩更有可能使美元走强。 巴克莱：美元可能进一步下跌，但强劲的美国经济数据将限制跌势 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in international gold prices presents both opportunities and risks for investors, with a recommendation to consider long-term strategic investments in gold as a hedge against market uncertainties [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - Since May, international gold prices have experienced significant fluctuations, with notable increases and decreases, including a peak of $3509.9 per ounce for COMEX gold and $3500.12 per ounce for London spot gold [1]. - The global trade war risks previously supported gold prices, but recent progress in US-China trade talks has led to a decrease in risk premiums and a decline in short-term safe-haven demand [1]. Group 2: Long-term Investment Perspective - Gold is influenced by various factors beyond trade risks, including the US dollar's performance, investor confidence in dollar assets, US government debt sustainability, inflation expectations, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases [2]. - The World Gold Council encourages viewing gold as a strategic asset that can provide long-term returns, reduce portfolio volatility, and offer liquidity during market turmoil [2][3]. Group 3: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The World Gold Council's report indicates that global gold demand reached 1206 tons in Q1 2025, a slight increase of 1% year-on-year, marking the highest level for that period since 2016 [2]. - Strong investment demand, driven by central bank purchases and improved global gold ETF demand, is a key factor supporting overall gold demand [2]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - For individual and institutional investors, a recommended allocation of 5%-10% in gold can enhance the risk-return profile of a typical 60/40 stock-bond portfolio [3]. - The recent increase in gold price volatility suggests that investors should exercise caution in their investment strategies [3].

据21世纪经济报道，尽管黄金短期承压，但不少机构仍看好其长期涨势。瑞银预计，今年年底金价或达3500美元/盎司，若出现避险上行情景，有望升至 3800美元/盎司。 黄金一旦开启涨势，走势往往十分凌厉。 5月20日，现货黄金涨幅达1.86%，收盘报3289.29美元/盎司；COMEX黄金期货涨1.83%，收于3292.60美元/盎司。5月21日上午9点左右，现货黄金价格突破 3300美元/盎司关口，为5月9日以来首次。截至发稿，现货黄金价格报3306.84美元/盎司。 金价上涨主要源于美元进一步走弱，以及美国关税政策、俄乌停火局势的不确定性。周二美元再度疲软，受美联储对经济前景持谨慎态度影响。此前，穆迪 上周下调美国主权信用评级，致使美元周一遭大幅抛售。美元走弱，降低了其他货币计价买家购买黄金的成本。 在地缘政治与经济形势不明朗时，黄金被视为避险资产。 百利好特约分析师指出，目前关注黄金的关键在于货币政策方向，若预计货币政策将继续宽松，将对黄金形成支撑。 重要声明：上述内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，投资者据此操作，风险自担。 从长期看，驱动黄金走势的关键因素是美元和美国实际利率，这对瑞银的黄金展望极为 ...

Core Viewpoint - Wells Fargo suggests that investors should reduce their holdings in emerging market stocks and instead purchase U.S. stocks, citing that while emerging market equities have outperformed the S&P 500 this year, this performance is typically linked to a weaker dollar, which is expected to strengthen [1] Group 1 - Emerging market stocks have shown superior performance compared to the S&P 500 index this year [1] - The strong performance of emerging markets is often associated with a weak dollar [1] - A prediction of a strengthening dollar is made, influencing the recommendation to shift investments [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the factors influencing oil price volatility, including the downgrade of the US credit rating, stalled US-Iran negotiations, and the ongoing weakness of the US dollar [1] Group 1: Economic Factors - The downgrade of the US credit rating has raised concerns about economic stability, which could impact investor confidence and market dynamics [1] - Stalled negotiations between the US and Iran are contributing to uncertainty in the oil market, affecting supply expectations and pricing [1] - The continuous weakening of the US dollar is influencing oil prices, as oil is typically traded in dollars, making it more expensive for foreign buyers [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent downgrade of the U.S. government's credit rating by Moody's from Aaa to Aa1, attributing it to rising budget deficits and concerns over U.S. economic policies, which may lead to increased volatility in financial markets [4][6]. Group 1: U.S. Credit Rating Downgrade - Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating, citing the expansion of budget deficits and lack of signs of reduction [4]. - The downgrade is expected to heighten concerns in the U.S. sovereign bond market, potentially leading to a slowdown in the U.S. economy [4][6]. - Analysts predict that the yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds may rise by 5-10 basis points due to the downgrade [6]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Rising U.S. Treasury yields could increase government interest expenses, complicating the government's ability to cut spending and potentially raising loan rates for mortgages and credit cards [7]. - The U.S. federal budget deficit is projected to reach nearly $2 trillion annually, exceeding 6% of GDP, with expectations that it will rise to nearly 9% of GDP by 2035 [8]. - Despite the downgrade, some analysts believe it will not significantly impact Congress's voting behavior or lead to forced selling of U.S. Treasuries [8]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the downgrade, gold prices opened higher, while U.S. stock index futures and oil prices experienced declines [4]. - The Bloomberg Dollar Index is nearing its lowest point since April, reflecting growing skepticism about the U.S. dollar amid rising Treasury yields [6]. - Foreign demand for U.S. government securities remains strong, indicating no immediate signs of aversion to U.S. debt despite recent concerns [8].

中美瑞士会谈协议最终达成两国互降关税贸易战，把关税税率降低115%，并按下90天暂停键的成果，促使美元周一飙升，创下美国总统大选以来的最佳单 日表现，至一个月来的最高水平，但是周二又快速回吐，除了因为美国最新CPI低于预期外，也表明乐观情绪也很快被谨慎情绪冲淡，关税战局势的暂时缓 和对美元的利好可能只是昙花一现。 在最新的贸易协议达成后，许多机构重申了美元将继续下跌的观点。美国存管信托及结算公司（DTC）的数据显示，本周迄今为止美元看跌押注的名义价值 约为610亿美元，高于看涨押注的550亿美元。对冲基金削减了美元空头头寸，因为市场无论是现货还是期权都缺乏新的看涨需求。 随着贸易战降温，且最新通胀数据显示关税影响减弱，交易员纷纷放弃押注美联储大幅降息。关税压力的降低可能会缓解对美国经济增长放缓的担忧。美国 总统特朗普宣布沙特阿拉伯将在美国投资1万亿美元，也加剧了风险偏好情绪，抹去了美国国债市场的涨幅。与美联储政策会议挂钩的掉期合约目前反映出 今年的降息幅度略高于半个基点，而上个月的预期降息幅度还超过了1个基点。 特朗普在4月2日"解放日"宣布全面征收关税，引发了包括美元和美国国债在内的美国资产的大幅退出，这些 ...

ICE美元指数短线拉升大约20点，至101上方，日内整体转涨。美元兑日元跌幅迅速收窄至0.3%，欧元 兑美元跌幅扩大至0.1%，英镑兑美元跌超0.2%，美元兑瑞郎涨约0.4%。媒体援引知情人士报道称，美 国不会在贸易协议中寻求美元贬值。 ...