Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - In September, due to the traditional peak season, corporate production and business activities accelerated. The manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index were 49.8%, 50%, and 50.6% respectively, showing an overall recovery and indicating that China's economic output remained in an expansion phase. However, there were still weaknesses in investment, and consumption growth slowed down. Exports maintained resilience but might slow down in the future. Overall, demand improved, production accelerated, and prices showed different trends [2] - The demand side saw short - term acceleration in external demand and short - term recovery but still weak internal demand. In production, industrial production accelerated significantly in September and was expected to slow down but continue to grow at a relatively high rate in the fourth quarter. Prices of domestic and foreign demand - type commodities showed different trends [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Manufacturing - In September, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, better than the expected 49.7% and up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The manufacturing market demand improved, with the new order index rising 0.2 percentage points to 49.7%. Production expanded faster, with the production index rising 1.1 percentage points to 51.9%. Both external and internal demand in foreign trade increased, with the new export order index and import index rising 0.6% and 0.1% respectively [3] - Manufacturing market prices dropped slightly. The main raw material purchase price index and the ex - factory price index decreased by 0.1 and 0.9 percentage points respectively. Industrial production accelerated, but investment demand in infrastructure and real estate was weak. Domestic "anti - involution" policies supported domestic - demand commodities, and international commodity prices rebounded [3][4] - Both the finished - product inventory and raw material inventory increased. The finished - product inventory index rose 1.4 percentage points to 48.2%, and the raw material inventory index rose 0.5 percentage points to 48.5%. Enterprises actively replenished raw material inventory and passively replenished finished - product inventory [4] Non - manufacturing - In September, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The service industry remained in the expansion range, with some industries in a high - level boom range and others falling below the critical point due to the end of the summer vacation effect. The construction industry's business activity index rose 0.2 percentage points to 49.3%, and its market expectation improved [5] Composite - In September, the composite PMI output index was 50.6%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities continued to accelerate [5]

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Group 1 - In September, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from August, marking two consecutive months of growth [1][3] - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index stood at 50%, indicating stable overall operations, while the comprehensive PMI output index remained in expansion [1][6] - The financial sector's business activity index rose above 60%, outperforming the same period last year, providing a favorable financial environment for economic recovery [5][6] Group 2 - The production index, new orders index, and purchasing volume index showed signs of recovery, while order indices remained below the threshold, highlighting persistent demand challenges [3][4] - The construction sector's business activity index remained below 50%, indicating weak growth in investment-related construction activities [7] - The overall economic outlook for the fourth quarter is positive, driven by macroeconomic policy support, holiday consumption, and project launches [8][10] Group 3 - The average PMI for the manufacturing sector in the third quarter was 49.5%, showing a slight increase compared to the second quarter and the same period last year [9] - The non-manufacturing sector maintained stable operations with an average business activity index of 50.1% in the third quarter [9] - Expectations for the fourth quarter are optimistic, with manufacturing enterprises showing increased confidence in production activities [10]

Group 1 - China's September manufacturing PMI is expected to be 49.7%, slightly up from the previous value of 49.4%, while the non-manufacturing PMI is expected to be 50.5%, up from 50.3% [1] - A slight increase in both PMIs may support a rise in commodity futures and stock index futures prices, but could mildly suppress government bond futures prices [1] Group 2 - The USDA is set to release the quarterly grain inventory report, which will impact futures prices for corn, wheat, and soybeans [2] Group 3 - The US ISM manufacturing PMI for September is anticipated to be 49.2%, an increase from the previous 48.7% [3] - A slight rise in the ISM manufacturing PMI may support increases in prices for non-ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures, while potentially suppressing gold and silver futures prices [3] Group 4 - The EIA will announce the weekly crude oil inventory change, with the previous value showing a decrease of 607,000 barrels [4] - A continued decrease in crude oil inventory could support rising prices for crude oil and related commodity futures [4] Group 5 - The US Labor Department will report initial jobless claims, with expectations set at 215,000, down from the previous 218,000 [5] - A slight decrease in jobless claims may support increases in industrial commodity futures prices, except for gold and silver [5] Group 6 - The US non-farm payroll report for September is expected to show an increase of 39,000 jobs, up from 22,000 previously, with an unemployment rate forecasted to remain at 4.3% [6] - If the non-farm payrolls exceed expectations while the unemployment rate and average hourly wage growth remain stable, it may support increases in industrial commodity futures prices but suppress gold and silver futures prices [6] Group 7 - OPEC+ will hold a meeting regarding oil production policies, with expectations of an increase in production by 137,000 barrels per day and a potential lifting of a second batch of production cuts totaling 1.65 million barrels per day [7] - The outcomes of this meeting are anticipated to impact crude oil and related commodity futures prices [7]

RatingDog解读：最近制造业景气改善，关键在于新订单的加速增长。需求基本面改善、企业致力促销、新品发布，共同推动最近新业务总量的增长，并且创下2月份后最高增速。同时，新出口订单量也在3月后首次录得增长，虽然增速仅算轻微。新接业务量上升，带动制造业产量录得3个月来最快增速。调查样本企业表示，金属和肉类价格走高，导致整体费用上升。当月投入成本涨幅为10个月来最高，但仍低于长期均值。虽然新业务和经营活动稳健增长，但9月份仍然延续用工收缩。据反映，在人员离职和企业裁员背景下， 当月用工录 得2024年4月后最急剧收缩率。综合PMI创下2024年6月后最强劲增速。 ...

中国9月RatingDog制造业PMI录得51.2，预期50.2，前值50.5。中国9月RatingDog服务业PMI录得52.9，预期52.6，前值53.0。RatingDog综合PMI录得52.5，前值51.9。 https://t.co/chEYrlnkbU外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):中国9月官方制造业PMI为49.8，预期49.7，前值49.4；非制造业PMI为50.0，预期50.2，前值50.3；综合PMI为50.6，前值50.5。 https://t.co/2rafZ7dlfa ...

中国9月官方制造业PMI为49.8，预期49.7，前值49.4；非制造业PMI为50.0，预期50.2，前值50.3；综合PMI为50.6，前值50.5。 https://t.co/2rafZ7dlfa ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - In 2025, there are various economic indicators and market conditions to be concerned about, including M2, M2 - M1, CPI, PPI, PMI, etc. The performance of A - shares is also affected by multiple factors such as GDP growth and FOMC projections [10][23][68] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Section 2 - In 2025, on September 26th, regarding certain data related to 300, 50, 500, and 1000, there are growth rates of 15.60%, 8.45%, 22.41%, and 16.38% respectively [10] - In August 2025, there were MLF operations of 3000, and in September, there was a 25bp change [12] Section 3 3.1 - The ratio of a certain aspect is 60% - 65% in September. In August 2025, M2 was 8.8%, and M2 - M1 was 2.8%, compared to 6.6% in 2021 [23] - In September, there was a 25bp change, which affected GDP by 10 [29] - In August, a certain value was 3.4% with a 0.3 change, and CPI was 0.9% [32] 3.2 - In a certain situation, 15% and 70% are relevant to CPI and PPI in August [46] - A - shares are affected by factors such as VIX. On September 23rd and 26th, there are specific data changes related to 300 and 500 A - shares. GDP growth in September was 3.8%. FOMC projections from 2025 - 2027 show various data for real GDP change, unemployment rate, PCE inflation, core PCE inflation, and federal funds rate [65][68][72] Section 4 - From 2021, for a certain index related to 300, the range is 4250 - 4950 [73]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The manufacturing industry's prosperity has improved, with the official PMI at 49.4 in August, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI at 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. China's export volume in August was $321.81 billion, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%, but a decline compared to July. The crude oil price is fluctuating. The downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving is increasing, and the PP market is expected to fluctuate today [4]. - For urea, the international price is strong (positive factor), while the domestic demand is weak and the daily production at the start - up is at a high level (negative factors). The main logic lies in the marginal changes of international prices and domestic demand [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview and PP Analysis - **Fundamentals**: The manufacturing industry's prosperity has improved. China's export volume in August decreased compared to July. The crude oil price is fluctuating. The downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving is increasing. The current PP delivery product spot price is 6780 (+30), and the overall fundamentals are neutral. With the approaching long - holiday, it is recommended to operate cautiously [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 113, and the premium/discount ratio is - 1.6%, which is bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 52.0 million tons (- 3.0), which is neutral [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is fluctuating, the crude oil price is fluctuating, the downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving is increasing, and the industrial inventory is moderately high. It is expected that the PP will fluctuate today [4]. Urea Factors - **Positive Factors**: The international price is strong [5]. - **Negative Factors**: The daily production at the start - up is at a high level, and the domestic demand is weak [5]. - **Main Logic**: The marginal changes of international prices and domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot Market** | The price of the spot delivery product is 1730 with no change; the price of Shandong spot is 1730 with no change; the price of Henan spot is 1740 with no change; the FOB China price is 3211 [6]. | | **Futures Market** | The price of the 01 contract is 1669, down 5; the basis is 61, up 5; the price of UR05 is 1720, down 7; the price of UR09 is 1740, down 7 [6]. | | **Inventory** | The warehouse receipt is 7241, down 294; the UR comprehensive inventory is 1421; the UR manufacturer inventory is 957; the UR port inventory is 464 [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Urea - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year by year, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. The production volume, net import volume, apparent consumption, and actual consumption also show different trends of change. For example, in 2024, the production capacity is 4418.5, the production volume is 3425, the net import volume is 360, the apparent consumption is 3785, and the actual consumption is 3778.25 [9]. - In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to be 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious investment stance on the consumer sector, reflecting concerns over declining consumer confidence and a cooling job market [3]. Core Insights - The consumer confidence index has declined for two consecutive months, indicating ongoing worries about the economic outlook [1][6]. - Retail sales data shows resilience, with August retail sales reaching $732.01 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.0% [1][6]. - Core inflation is rising, with the core CPI reaching 2.9%, the highest level in three months, driven primarily by housing costs [1][8]. - Non-farm employment growth has significantly slowed, with only 22,000 new jobs added in August, far below the expected 140,000 [1][12]. Macroeconomic Overview - The Michigan consumer confidence index for September is at 55.4, down 4.8% from August [1][6]. - August CPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, while core CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month [1][8]. - Non-farm employment growth is at its lowest since December 2024, with the unemployment rate slightly rising to 4.3% [1][12][14]. - Consumer credit saw a moderate increase of $10.48 billion in July, indicating cautious borrowing behavior [1][19]. Industry Performance Essential Consumption - Alcohol sales in July were $6.23 billion, down 0.5% year-on-year, but the decline is slowing [2][26]. - Tobacco sales remained stable at $6.02 billion in July, with a CPI increase of 6.3% [2][31]. - Dairy product shipments reached $13.37 billion in July, showing moderate year-on-year growth [2][28]. - Beverage shipments totaled $12.05 billion in July, with a notable CPI increase of 4.6% [2][28]. Discretionary Consumption - Restaurant sales in August were $99.52 billion, up 6.5% year-on-year, indicating strong consumer demand for dining out [2][33]. - Department store sales in August were $76.78 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.9% but a slight month-on-month decline [2][36]. - Apparel sales in August reached $27.18 billion, up 8.3% year-on-year, reflecting a strong rebound in clothing consumption [2][38]. Market Trends - The consumer sector shows a mixed performance, with discretionary consumption outperforming essential consumption [3][42]. - Essential consumption ETFs experienced a net outflow of $1.1 billion, indicating investor caution [3][48]. - The report highlights that the essential consumption sector is facing significant outflows, reflecting a more cautious investment sentiment [3][48].