Economic Indicators - In June, the official manufacturing PMI recorded 49.7%, a slight increase from 49.5% in May, but still below the expansion threshold[2] - The non-manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5% from 50.3%, indicating continued expansion in the service sector[2] - The composite PMI output index increased to 50.7%, reflecting overall economic recovery[2] Manufacturing Sector Insights - The production index continued to expand, with new orders rising above the threshold, indicating improved demand[3] - New export orders showed a minor recovery, with domestic orders performing better than foreign ones[3] - The purchasing volume surged into the expansion zone, reflecting a positive shift in corporate procurement attitudes[3] Price and Inventory Dynamics - Both factory prices and major raw material purchase prices increased, indicating a balance between downstream demand recovery and upstream commodity price fluctuations[3] - Finished goods inventory rose significantly, while raw material inventory continued to recover, suggesting a cautious approach to inventory management[3] Sectoral Performance - The equipment manufacturing PMI increased by 0.2 percentage points to 51.4%, while the consumer goods sector PMI rose to 50.4%, marking six consecutive months of growth[4] - Large enterprises maintained strong PMI performance, while small enterprises saw a decline of 2 percentage points, highlighting resource imbalances within the industry[4] Future Outlook - The EPMI index fell to 47.9%, down 2.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a divergence from the PMI due to ongoing trade tensions and tariff issues[10] - Economic recovery remains uncertain, with the real estate sector still in a downturn and consumer prices under pressure, suggesting reliance on fiscal stimulus for demand recovery[13] - The bond market is expected to remain stable, supported by the current economic data and policy expectations, despite external uncertainties[16]

Domestic News - The National Healthcare Security Administration and the National Health Commission issued measures to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs, emphasizing the use of medical insurance data for drug research and development [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that domestic gasoline and diesel prices will increase by 235 yuan and 225 yuan per ton, respectively, starting from July 1, 2025, due to recent international oil price changes [1] - The People's Bank of China Credit Center will implement new credit service fee standards starting July 1, 2025, allowing two free personal credit report inquiries per year, with a fee of 5 yuan for subsequent inquiries [1] - According to the China Banking Research Institute, the GDP growth for the first half of 2025 is expected to be around 5.4%, with a decline in growth for the second half, projecting GDP growth of 5% and 4.6% for the third and fourth quarters, respectively, leading to an annual growth of approximately 5% [1] Real Estate Sector - In the first half of 2025, the total land acquisition amount for the top 100 real estate companies reached 506.55 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 33.3% [2] - The Beijing second-hand housing market showed a robust recovery in the first half of 2025, with a total of 90,035 transactions, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.4% [2] International News - The European Central Bank decided to maintain its inflation target at 2%, aligning with the Eurozone's inflation rate of 2% reported in June [4] - The Slovak Prime Minister expressed concerns over the EU's proposal to stop importing Russian gas, indicating potential delays in voting on the sanctions if adequate compensation is not provided [4]

股指期货全景日报 2025/7/1 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IF主力合约（2509） IH主力合约（2509） | 3886.0 2689.8 | -1.0↓ IF次主力合约（2507） +2.2↑ IH次主力合约（2507） | 3911.6 2696.0 | +3.8↑ +4.2↑ | | | IC主力合约（2509） | 5764.6 | -11.2↓ IC次主力合约（2507） | 5868.0 | +0.6↑ | | | IM主力合约（2509） | 6133.4 | -22.2↓ IM次主力合约（2507） | 6286.8 | -2.6↓ | | 期货盘面 | IF-IH当月合约价差 | 1215.6 | +2.2↑ IC-IF当月合约价差 | 1956.4 | -0.2↓ | | | IM-IC当月合约价差 | 418.8 | -1.2↓ IC-IH当月合约价差 | 3172.0 | +2.0↑ | | | IM-IF当月合约价差 | 2375.2 | ...

金十数据7月1日讯，周二公布的PMI调查显示，英国制造业在长期低迷中初现转机迹象。为抵消劳动力 成本上升，6月企业纷纷提高产品价格。英国6月制造业PMI终值从5月的46.4升至6月的47.7，与初值持 平，为连续第三个月改善，但仍连续第九个月低于50的荣枯线。PMI数据显示，在产出、招聘和新订单 方面，经济下滑的严重程度有所缓解。标普全球市场情报主管Rob Dobson表示："尽管如此，任何预期 的企稳都仍是脆弱的，可能受到潜在逆风的冲击，这些逆风可能严重影响需求、供应链可靠性和未来增 长前景。" 英国制造业衰退现缓和迹象 企业信心回升 ...

金十数据7月1日讯，一项调查显示，欧元区6月制造业活动显示出进一步复苏迹象，新订单逾三年以来 首次停止下滑，暗示欧元区陷入困境的制造业初步企稳。HCOB制造业PMI从5月份的49.4小幅升至6月 份的49.5，为2022年8月以来的最高水平，但连续第29个月低于50大关。初值为49.4。 PMI显示，欧元区工厂订单3年来首次企稳 ...

Group 1: PMI Data Overview - The manufacturing PMI for June is 49.7%, up from 49.5% in May[2] - The production index is at 51.0%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous value of 50.7%[2] - The new orders index stands at 50.2%, rising from 49.8%[2] Group 2: Sector Performance - The equipment manufacturing PMI is the highest at 51.4%, up 1.8 percentage points from April's 49.6%[4] - The construction industry business activity index is at 52.8%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points from the previous month[14] - The service industry business activity index is slightly down at 50.1%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points[14] Group 3: Price and Inventory Trends - The PMI factory price index is at 46.2%, remaining below the neutral line for 13 consecutive months[4] - The inventory index has improved, with the purchasing index at 50.2%, up from 47.6%[3] - The comprehensive PMI output index is at 50.7%, reflecting a 0.3 percentage point increase from the previous month[15] Group 4: External Trade and Expectations - New export orders index is at 47.7%, a slight increase from 47.5%[3] - The manufacturing production expectation index is at 52.0%, down from 52.5%[14] - The construction industry business activity expectation index is at 53.9%, up from 52.4%[14]

| | 1、央行公告称，6月30日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了3315亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量3315 | | --- | --- | | | 亿元，中标量3315亿元。Wind数据显示，当日2205亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放1110亿元。 | | | 2、央行年中精准调控，资金面有望平稳跨季。近段时间以来，央行精准调控护航年中资金面。在5月降准释放长期流 | | | 动性10000亿元的基础上，6月以来，央行多次开展买断式逆回购净投放，以及加量续做MLF，为市场注入充裕的流动 | | | 性。展望7月跨月及半年度资金面，市场既抱有谨慎乐观态度，也存在一定担忧，主要在于财政因素对于资金面可能 | | | 会形成较大的干扰。 | | | 3、国家统计局公布，6月份，我国制造业、非制造业和综合PMI分别为49.7%、50.5%和50.7%，比上月上升0.2、0.2和 | | | 0.3个百分点，三大指数均有所回升。装备制造业、高技术制造业和消费品行业PMI均连续两个月位于扩张区间。 | | 宏观 | 4、财政部、国家税务总局、商务部发布公告，明确在2025年1月1日至2028年 ...

涨跌都能赚 盈利就能离场！点击开通期货"T+0、双向交易"特权！>>> 市场空头氛围弥漫，商品大面积下挫；黑色系及广期所品种领跌，工业硅大跌4%，玻璃、焦煤跌近 4%，纯碱大跌3%，多晶硅、焦炭、硅铁、碳酸锂、PVC大跌2%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨幅(结)↑ | | --- | --- | --- | | 工业硅2509 | 7765 | -4.31% | | 玻璃2509 | 979 | -3.83% | | 焦煤2509 | 809.5 | -3.92% | | 纯碱2509 | 1163 | -3.00% | | 多昌硅2508 | 32570 | -2.78% | | 佳炭2509 | 1385.0 | -2.70% | | PVC2509 | 4817 | -2.17% | | 氧化铝2509 | 2927 | -2.01% | | 硅铁2509 | 5272 | -2.01% | | 碳酸锂2509 | 61460 | -1.95% | | 对二甲苯2509 | 6734 | -1.35% | | 铁矿石2509 | 708.5 | -1.32% | | 沪锌2508 | 22145 | - ...

Manufacturing PMI Overview - June manufacturing PMI in China is 49.7%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the contraction zone below 50%[3] - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 51.2%, up 0.5 percentage points; medium enterprises at 48.6%, up 1.1 percentage points; small enterprises at 47.3%, down 2 percentage points, indicating significant divergence in performance across different enterprise sizes[4] Production and Demand Indicators - The production index for June is 51%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from May, indicating continued expansion[4] - New orders index stands at 50.2%, up 0.4 percentage points, while new export orders are at 47.7%, up 0.2 percentage points, suggesting stronger domestic demand compared to external demand[4][12] - The index representing supply-demand balance (new orders minus finished goods inventory) is at 2.1%, down 1.2 percentage points, indicating weakened effective demand[4][13] Inventory and Price Trends - Finished goods inventory index is at 48.1%, up 1.6 percentage points; raw materials inventory index is at 48%, up 0.6 percentage points, reflecting a slight recovery in inventory levels[5][20] - The factory price index is at 46.2%, up 1.5 percentage points, while major raw material purchase price index is at 48.4%, also up 1.5 percentage points, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures in the manufacturing sector[5][20] Employment and Supplier Dynamics - Employment index for June is at 47.9%, down 0.2 percentage points, indicating a contraction in employment conditions, particularly among small enterprises[22] - Supplier delivery time index is at 50.2%, up 0.2 percentage points, suggesting slight delays in supplier deliveries[22] Overall Economic Outlook - The overall expectation for production activities in June is at 52.0%, down 0.5 percentage points, reflecting a pessimistic outlook among manufacturing enterprises[14][16] - The non-manufacturing PMI is at 50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points, with the construction sector showing a notable increase to 52.8%, while the service sector slightly declined to 50.1%[5][12]

2025 年 07 月 01 日 铜：情绪利好，价格坚挺 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 商 品 研 究 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 79,870 | -0.06% | 79780 | -0.11% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 9,878 | -0.01% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 100,945 | -30,811 | 212,911 | -2,794 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 13,734 | -4,112 | 288,000 | -4,103 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 25,851 | 505 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 90,625 | -650 | 36.33% | -0.51% | ...