2025 年 5 月 13 日 花生：现货偏强 尹恺宜 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019456 yinkaiyi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 花生基本面数据 | | 辽宁308通货 | 元/吨 | | 昨日价格 8,160 | 价格变动 6 0 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 重要现货 | | | | | | | | 价 格 | 河南白沙通货 | 元/吨 | | 8,000 | 4 0 | | | | 兴城小日本 | 元/吨 | | 8,380 | 2 0 | | | | 苏丹精米 | 元/吨 | | 8,350 | 0 | | | | | 单 位 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌% | | | | PK510 | 元/吨 | | 8,222 | 1.03 | | | | PK511 | 元/吨 | | 8,132 | 1.35 | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | 期 货 | PK510 | 手 | 62,563 | 30,726 | 87,229 | 5,787 | | | PK51 ...

Fundamental Analysis - The global economic situation, monetary policies of major economies, and geopolitical issues significantly impact gold prices [3] - Gold prices typically have an inverse relationship with the US dollar index; a stronger dollar often leads to lower gold prices and vice versa [4] - Inflation erodes the purchasing power of currency, making gold a sought-after asset during inflationary periods [5] - The supply and demand dynamics, including changes in gold mining output and central bank reserves, also affect gold prices [6] Technical Analysis - Candlestick charts are essential for technical analysis, allowing investors to observe market trends and potential buy/sell signals [7] - Technical indicators such as moving averages, MACD, and RSI serve as navigational tools for investors to assess market conditions [7] - Support and resistance levels act as critical price points; breaking through these levels often indicates a shift in market trends [7] Risk Management - Setting stop-loss orders acts as a safety mechanism for investors, automatically triggering a sell when prices fall to a predetermined level [8] - Position sizing is crucial; investors should not risk all their capital on a single trade and should allocate funds based on their risk tolerance [8] - Diversification is recommended to mitigate risks associated with price volatility in a single asset [8] Psychological Management - Greed and fear can hinder investment decisions; maintaining a calm and rational mindset is essential for analyzing market dynamics [10] - Developing and adhering to a trading plan serves as a strategic guide, helping investors avoid impulsive decisions based on market fluctuations [10] - Continuous learning is vital for investors to keep pace with the evolving financial market and remain competitive [10]

油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/05/12 Safras & Mercado：巴西大豆作物销售落后于进度 咨询公司Safras & Mercado的报告显示，巴西收割已结束的2024/25年度大豆作物商业化销售已达到预期产量的 57%，和去年同期和历史均值相比有所延迟。 和上月相比，巴西大豆销售增加6.3个百分点。 上年同期，大豆销售完成预期产量的64.6%，五年均值甚至为更高的70.3%。 考虑到该公司已将大豆产量预估达到创纪录的1.7245亿吨，因此该国大豆销售已达到9,788万吨。 数据显示，生产商的销售速度有所放缓，这可能和国际市场价格波动、气候不确定以及价格行为有关，而巴西部分 地区的价格仍然承压。 **下一年度大豆销售也增加** 2025/26年度，巴西大豆销售量达到预期产量1.8257亿吨的7.9%，约为1.435万吨。 尽管销售有所好转，但仍低于去年同期的9.9%，也远低于历史均值的17.2%。这表明，尽管近几周交易速度有所加 快，但鉴于市场的不确定性，生产商在谈判中仍保持谨慎。 美国农业部：民间出口商报告向巴基斯坦出口销售 据美国农业部（USDA）网站 9日消息，民间出口商报告向 ...

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 Z0019938 王浅辉 2025年5月12日 | | | 原田 | | | 5月8日 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | | 现价 江苏一级 8260 30 0.36% | | | 0.33% 期价 | | | 364 360 星差 4 1.11% | | | - | | | 8.80% | | | 棕榈油 | | | 5月8日 张跌幅 涨跌 | | | 0.35% | | | 0.86% | | | P2509 324 364 -40 星差 -10.99% | | | - | | | 0.40% | | | 13.26% | | | 仓单 330 330 0 0.00% | | | 菜籽油 | | | 26666 5月8日 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | | 0.00% | | | 0.64% | | | 墓差 01509 20 80 -60 -75.00% | | | 现货墓差报价 江苏5月 09+120 09 + 100 20 - | | | じ車 1707 1229 478 - | | | 价差 | | | ...

业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292 2025年5月12日 | 期货收盘价 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | BBBB | 5月8日 | 张跃 | 张跌幅 | 单位 | | 01合约 | 1790 | 1786 | 4 | 0.22% | | | 05合约 | 1935 | 1911 | 24 | 1.26% | | | 09合约 | 1893 | 1882 | 11 | 0.58% | 元/吨 | | 甲醇主力合约 | 2227 | 2216 | 11 | 0.50% | | | 期货合约价差 | | | | | | | 价差 | 2666 | 5月8日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 01合约-05合约 | -145 | -125 | -20 | -16.00% | | | 05合约-09合约 | 42 | 59 | 13 | 44.83% | 元/吨 | | 09合约-01合约 | 103 | de | 7 | 7.29% | | | UR-MA主力合约 | -437 | -430 | -7 | ...

| CNF到岸价: | 指标 | | --- | --- | | 名称 | | 马来西亚棕 榈油:连续 2025/5/12 申万期货品种策略日报- 油脂油料 申银万国期货研究所 李霁月（从业编号:F03119649；交易咨询号:Z0019570） lijy@sywgqh.com.cn 国 内 期 货 市 场 豆油主力 棕榈油主力 菜油主力 豆粕主力 菜粕主力 花生主力 前日收盘价 7786 7914 9335 2920 2484 8844 涨跌 26 -60 119 5 19 26 涨跌幅(%) 0.34% -0.75% -3.15% 0.17% 0.77% 0.29% 价差 Y9-1 P9-1 OI9-1 Y-P09 OI-Y09 OI-P09 现值 54 26 149 -214 1456 1242 前值 62 26 143 -316 1465 1149 比价-价差 M9-1 RM9-1 M-RM09 M/RM09 Y/M09 Y-M09 现值 -49 217 367 1.14 2.66 4845 前值 -47 217 384 1.15 2.68 4912 国 际 期 货 市 场 BMD棕榈油/ 林吉特/吨 ...

2025年05月12日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：单边震荡市，正套离场 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：正套离场，多PX空PTA | 2 | | MEG：多PTA空MEG | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：震荡有支撑 | 6 | | 沥青：跟随原油区间震荡 | 8 | | LLDPE：后期仍有压力 | 10 | | PP：现货小跌，成交一般 | 12 | | 烧碱：短期震荡，后期仍有压力 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 15 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇：震荡运行 | 18 | | 尿素：偏强运行 | 20 | | 苯乙烯：偏弱震荡 | 22 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 23 | | LPG：关税忧虑缓解内盘估值承压 | 24 | | PVC：偏弱震荡 | 27 | | 燃料油：偏强震荡，短期仍有回弹趋势 | 29 | | 低硫燃料油：窄幅调整，外盘高低硫价差暂时小幅回撤 | 29 | | 集运指数（欧线）：中美关税缓和，近月短期偏强；10-12反套轻仓持有 | 30 | | 短纤：短期震荡市， ...

Group 1 - Spot gold prices fell significantly by over 40 dollars, currently reported at 3282 dollars per ounce [1] - US stock index futures opened higher by over 1%, with Nasdaq futures up by 1.5% and S&P 500 index futures up by 1.27% [1]

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 5 月 11 日 锰硅：矿端报价扰动，锰硅宽幅震荡 硅铁：电费成本扰动，硅铁偏弱震荡 | 李亚飞 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 | liyafei2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 金园园（联系人） | 期货从业资格号：F03134630 | jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com | 报告导读： 总体来看，锰硅近期供需格局边际收紧，市价较低，现货成交较弱，期货仓单提货明显；硅铁成本 重心下移，后续应继续关注合金厂的生产节奏变动和钢厂生产节奏的博弈，跟踪需求端高炉铁水产量的 节奏变动对双硅的需求支撑。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 【走势回顾】本周硅铁 2506 合约走势震荡偏弱，收于 5,482 元/吨，周环比变化-108 元/吨，成交 440,882 手，持仓 82,029 手，持仓环比变化-39,724 手。本周锰硅 2509 合约价格走势震荡，收于 5,758 元/吨，周环比变化 6 元/吨，成交 21326 手，持仓 42605 手，持仓环比变化-14,562 手。 【供应】硅铁本周产量为 10 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the role of the futures market as a "shock absorber" for the real economy, particularly in managing price volatility and risk for agricultural enterprises [1][2][3] Group 1: Risk Management Strategies - A combination strategy of "selling out-of-the-money call options + short positions" helped a cotton enterprise secure a premium of 117.5 yuan/ton, effectively locking in the upper limit of procurement costs [1][2] - Customized "Dalian soybean oil - U.S. soybean" swap solutions were developed to hedge against the price difference risk between imported soybeans and domestic products [1][2] - The launch of red dates futures led to a significant reduction in spot price volatility, from a range of 95,000 yuan/ton to 11,000 yuan/ton, representing an 88% decrease, demonstrating the effectiveness of the "insurance + futures" model [1][2] Group 2: Service System Enhancements - The "three enhancements" service system by COFCO Futures focuses on strengthening basic training, talent development, and financial support to provide customized risk management solutions for enterprises [1][3] - The company is exploring a dual protection mechanism of "over-the-counter options + spot services" to better serve the operational stability of enterprises [3][4] Group 3: Challenges in Futures Market - Current challenges in the futures market include the difficulty for small and medium-sized enterprises to effectively utilize futures tools due to a lack of funds and professional talent [5] - There is a mismatch between contract design and enterprise needs, with regional and product differences affecting liquidity and demand [5] - The industry faces issues of poor competition, where capable futures companies struggle to reach industrial clients, exposing them to high-risk trading environments [5] Group 4: Education and Awareness - There is a need to enhance market education and trader awareness to overcome the perception of futures as "high risk," which remains prevalent among many enterprises [6] - A layered trader education system is proposed to provide differentiated educational solutions based on target group characteristics [6] - The establishment of immersive educational centers is suggested to facilitate a better understanding of the futures market's functions and risks through hands-on experiences [6]