Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: August 13, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Xu Chenxi from Nanhua Research Institute [1] - Investment Advisory Qualification: China Securities Regulatory Commission Permit [2011] No. 1290 [1] Group 2: Market Performance - On Wednesday, Treasury bond futures opened lower and closed higher across the board, with all cash bond yields declining, and the medium - and long - end yields falling more significantly [1] - The open market had a net withdrawal of 20 billion yuan, but the money market remained loose, with DR001 at 1.316% [1] - The US July CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, lower than expected, while the core CPI growth reached the highest since February, which strengthened the expectation of interest rate cuts [2] Group 3: Market Analysis - The A - share market continued to rise strongly, and the Shanghai Composite Index broke through the high point formed on October 8, 2024, but the impact on the bond market was limited, and the stock - bond跷跷板 effect weakened [3] - In terms of institutional behavior, funds continued to sell, while securities firms turned to buying. In the bullish atmosphere of the A - share market, active funds such as securities firms and funds may sell from time to time, but there is no need to worry too much [3] - After the continuous rise of the A - share market, it may fluctuate, which may provide some space for the bond market. Traders should not chase the rising market, control positions, and lay out next - quarter contracts on dips [3] Group 4: Data Summary Futures Contracts | Contract | 2025 - 08 - 13 Price | 2025 - 08 - 12 Price | Price Change | Last Week's Price | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2509 | 102.37 | 102.338 | 0.032 | 102.37 | | TF2509 | 105.75 | 105.695 | 0.055 | 105.78 | | T2509 | 108.46 | 108.41 | 0.05 | 108.565 | | TL2509 | 118.31 | 118.15 | 0.16 | 119.34 | [4] Contract Positions | Contract Position | 2025 - 08 - 13 | 2025 - 08 - 12 | Change | Last Week | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS Contract Position (lots) | 102880 | 105870 | - 2990 | 31605 | | TF Contract Position (lots) | 177009 | 178301 | - 1292 | 186234 | | T Contract Position (lots) | 236925 | 236006 | 919 | 236282 | | TL Contract Position (lots) | 153096 | 153569 | - 473 | 153142 | [4] Basis | Basis | 2025 - 08 - 13 | 2025 - 08 - 12 | Change | Last Week | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS Basis (CTD) | 0.0396 | 0.0284 | 0.0112 | 0.0136 | | TF Basis (CTD) | 0.023 | 0.0339 | - 0.0109 | 0.0031 | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.0072 | 0.0165 | - 0.0093 | 0.0147 | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.0322 | 0.1906 | - 0.1584 | 0.0147 | [4] Trading Volume | Contract | 2025 - 08 - 13 Volume | 2025 - 08 - 12 Volume | Volume Change | Last Week's Volume | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS Main Contract Volume (lots) | 39500 | 34415 | 5085 | 27216 | | TF Main Contract Volume (lots) | 47424 | 48505 | - 1081 | 47098 | | T Main Contract Volume (lots) | 77715 | 76952 | 763 | 64393 | | TL Main Contract Volume (lots) | 125564 | 123182 | 2382 | 78797 | [4] Repo Rates | Repo Rate | 2025 - 08 - 13 Rate | 2025 - 08 - 12 Rate | Rate Change | Last Week's Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DR001 | 1.3162% | 1.3144% | 0.0018% | 0.0019% | | DR007 | 1.4444% | 1.4404% | 0.004% | - 0.0001% | | DR014 | 1.4688% | 1.4833% | - 0.0145% | - 0.0065% | [4][5] Repo Trading Volume | Repo | 2025 - 08 - 13 Volume (billion yuan) | 2025 - 08 - 12 Volume (billion yuan) | Volume Change (billion yuan) | Last Week's Volume (billion yuan) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DR001 | 28708.9799 | 28708.9799 | 0 | 28816.6772 | | DR007 | 1081.5185 | 810.5676 | 270.9509 | 957.0987 | | DR014 | 107.5447 | 90.8441 | 16.7006 | 144.4292 | [4][5]

国债期货日报 | 2025-08-13 股债跷跷板效应明显，国债期货大多收跌 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：7月政治局会议明确提出要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，依法依 规治理企业无序竞争，积极稳妥化解地方政府债务风险，严禁新增隐性债务等一些列政策指引；2025年8月1日， 财政部与税务总局发布公告称，自2025年8月8日起，对在该日及以后新发行的国债、地方政府债券和金融债券的 利息收入将恢复征收增值税。此前已发行的上述债券（包括8月8日后续发行的部分）仍享受免征增值税政策，直 至到期；关税方面，中美发布斯德哥尔摩经贸会谈联合声明，自2025年8月12日起再次暂停实施24%的关税90天。 （2）通胀：7月CPI同比持平。 资金面：（3）财政：2025年上半年，全国财政运行总体平稳，支出扩张力度加大、收支结构持续优化。一般公共 预算收入达11.56万亿元，同比微降0.3%，其中税收收入占比超八成，尽管总体下降1.2%，但增值税、消费税、个 税等主要税种保持增长，显示税源恢复态势逐步确立。支出方面，一般公共预算支出14.13万亿元，同比增长3.4%， 聚焦社会保障、教育、科技、卫生等民生和发 ...

Group 1 - The bond market has experienced a correction from mid to late July, with the 10-year government bond yield rising from 1.66% to 1.72% and the 30-year bond yield increasing from 1.87% to 1.99% during the period from July 16 to August 11 [1] - In contrast to the bond market's decline, the stock market and commodities have shown strong performance, driven by supply reduction policies, economic recovery expectations, and global liquidity easing, leading to a significant rise in commodity prices and a rebound in the A-share market [1] - The adjustment in the bond market is attributed to three main factors: tight funding conditions, inflation expectations raised by "anti-involution" policies, and the impact of rising equity markets on the bond market [1] Group 2 - Recent PMI data indicates a marginal pressure scenario for the second half of the year, with production, domestic and external demand orders, and inventory indicators showing varying degrees of decline, suggesting that inflation expectations may not persist for long [2] - The commodity market is cooling down, which is favorable for the bond market, as the first phase of significant price increases in commodities may have passed, leading to a more rational market risk appetite [2] - Historically, August sees stable funding conditions, with funding rates typically rising before month-end; recent data shows overnight and 7-day funding rates declining to 1.35% and 1.49% respectively, indicating liquidity easing [2] Group 3 - The current adjustment in the bond market is driven more by sentiment and trading factors rather than a fundamental reversal of the bond market's core logic, suggesting that the long-term bullish outlook for the bond market remains unchanged [3] - The recent phase of decline in the bond market presents a more attractive opportunity for rational investors to position themselves [3]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Trends - Recent fluctuations in treasury futures are driven by macroeconomic data and policy changes, with the Ministry of Finance announcing the resumption of VAT on interest income from newly issued government bonds starting August 8, leading to increased demand for older bonds [1] - Domestic economic resilience is evident, with a rising risk appetite in the A-share market and the central bank maintaining ample liquidity, while the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged, causing upward momentum in treasury futures to weaken [1] Group 2: Trade Performance - In July 2025, China's total import and export volume reached $545.32 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, with exports at $321.78 billion, up 7.2%, outperforming market expectations [2] - The increase in exports is attributed to fluctuating U.S. tariff policies, leading to a "rush to export" effect, particularly with accelerated growth in exports to the EU, South Korea, Taiwan, and Belt and Road countries, despite a significant decline in exports to the U.S. [2] Group 3: Import Dynamics - Import growth continued to rebound in July, driven by rising prices of bulk commodities, with the CRB index increasing from 3.5% in June to 6.0% year-on-year, positively impacting both import volume and value [3] - The decline in imports from the U.S. narrowed from 15.5% to 10.3%, indicating a slight alleviation of the overall import pressure [3] Group 4: Price Levels - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat year-on-year in July, with a slight decrease in the growth rate compared to June, while the core CPI increased by 0.1 percentage points to 0.8%, the highest since March 2024 [4] - Food prices showed a moderate improvement, with the year-on-year growth rate of fresh vegetables and pork prices contributing to a downward adjustment in CPI [4] Group 5: Producer Price Index (PPI) Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 3.6% year-on-year in July, consistent with June, reflecting low construction industry sentiment and price pressures in export-oriented sectors due to international trade uncertainties [5] - Recent government meetings emphasized maintaining a "moderately loose" monetary policy, indicating that the foundation for a "bull market" in bonds remains solid, although upward momentum in the bond market may weaken due to economic resilience and commodity price recovery [5]

Market Performance - On August 12, A-shares in the AI hardware sector surged, with Cambrian's "20CM" hitting the daily limit, and multiple chip and AI-themed ETFs rising over 3% [1][3] - The STAR 50 ETF (588000) increased nearly 2%, with trading volume rising by nearly 3 billion yuan compared to the previous day [6] - The STAR Chip ETF (588200) and Semiconductor ETF (512480) also saw significant trading volume increases [6] Fund Flows - The short-term bond ETF (511360) experienced a significant outflow of over 11 billion yuan, with a trading volume of only 102.93 billion yuan, down more than 12 billion yuan from the previous day [6][9] - Conversely, the 30-year Treasury bond ETF (511090) attracted over 6 billion yuan in net inflows [9] ETF Highlights - The STAR Chip ETF (588810) rose by 4.37%, marking its largest increase in nearly four months, with a premium rate of 0.87% [4] - Other notable ETFs in the chip and AI sectors also saw gains, with several rising over 3% [4][3] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF (159792) recorded a net inflow of over 3.5 billion yuan since August, leading non-cash ETFs [2][8] Sector Insights - The AI sector is expected to trigger a structural market rally due to sufficient capital allocation and ongoing demand for computing power and capital expenditure [3] - The market is currently experiencing a "stock-bond seesaw" effect, with notable shifts in fund flows between equity and bond ETFs [6][9] Upcoming Developments - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange will launch the Shenzhen AAA State-Owned Enterprise Credit Bond Index and the Shenzhen AAA Private Enterprise Credit Bond Index on August 15, aimed at reflecting the performance of high-grade credit bonds [11]

国债期货日报 2025年8月12日 债市仍受压制 观点：逢低布局下季合约 南华研究院 徐晨曦（Z0001908） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 盘面点评： 期债日内探底回升，全线收跌，TF相对较强，TL最弱。现券收益率今日继续上行，短端幅度较小，超长端上 行幅度较大，但整体幅度较昨日缓和。公开市场净回笼461亿元。资金利率略微上行，DR001在1.32%左右。 日内消息： 1.中美斯德哥尔摩经贸会谈联合声明：自2025年8月12日起再次暂停实施24%的关税90天。 行情研判： 债市目前仍受股债跷跷板效应影响。盘前中美关税如期暂缓90天的消息一定程度上对股市继续上涨提供了情 绪助力，今日上证指数继续向去年10月8日形成的高点发起冲击。机构行为方面，基金与券商在卖出债券。当 下股市牛市氛围浓厚，即便出现一定震荡，大盘还将继续向上，对债市的压制将在一段时间内持续，但债市 在基本面与政策面主导下，调整存在边界。交易盘可逢低布局下季合约，可将买入间隔适当拉大。 | 数据一览 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - In the context of the "stock-bond seesaw" effect, the bond market adjusted due to the stock market's rise. However, the bond market still has support from fundamentals and capital, and the yield center may remain low. The Politburo meeting's policies may boost stock market activity, causing short-term disturbances to the bond market [4][11][12] - The Central Bank and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued a document encouraging the issuance of rural revitalization bonds, which may lead to the expansion of such bonds [5][14][15] - Industrial enterprise profits declined in the first half of the year, with industrial product prices dragging down revenue and profits, while "volume" remained an important support factor for profit recovery [6][17] Summary by Directory Market Hotspots - **Stock-Bond Seesaw Effect and Bond Market Adjustment**: The stock market rose significantly last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3600 points, triggering the "stock-bond seesaw" effect. The bond market adjusted, with most major bond market indices falling and bond yields rising. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 1.73%. The Politburo meeting's policies may increase stock market activity, causing short-term disturbances to the bond market, but the bond market still has support [4][11][12] - **Policy Encouragement for Rural Revitalization Bonds**: The Central Bank and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs jointly issued a document encouraging the issuance of rural revitalization bonds. This policy aims to provide comprehensive financial support for rural revitalization, and rural revitalization bonds may expand in the future [5][14][15] Macroeconomic Data - Industrial enterprise profits declined by 1.8% year-on-year from January to June, with the decline widening compared to the previous period. In June, the profit decline narrowed, indicating marginal improvement but overall weakness. Industrial product prices continued to drag down profits, while industrial production was supported by factors such as the "export rush" effect and the "618" shopping festival [6][17] Money Market - The central bank's net capital injection decreased last week, leading to a marginal tightening of liquidity. Most interbank repurchase rates rose, except for a slight decline in the DR1m rate. The spread between the 3-month and 1-year Shibor widened [20] Primary Market of Credit Bonds - The issuance scale of credit bonds increased last week, reaching 3243.17 billion yuan, an increase of 418.72 billion yuan from the previous period. Different bond types showed varying trends, with ultra-short-term financing bonds and corporate bonds increasing significantly. The infrastructure investment and financing industry had a net outflow of financing, while most industries in the industrial bond sector had a net inflow. The issuance cost of credit bonds mostly increased [23][25][31] Secondary Market of Credit Bonds - The trading volume in the secondary bond market increased last week, with the daily average trading volume reaching 19682.03 billion yuan. Bond yields generally rose, with interest rate bonds and credit bonds both showing significant increases. Most credit spreads widened, while rating spreads showed mixed trends with small changes [33][36][40]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [1][2] Core Viewpoints - The short - term fluctuations caused by current policies are constrained within the interest rate central framework, and the bond market will return to the fundamentals in the medium term after short - term negative shocks [2][19] - In the context of continued loose funding, the bond market is expected to maintain an oscillation range of 1.65% - 1.75%. A decline below 1.65% or a new low requires a substantial domestic interest rate cut, so whether the Fed cuts interest rates in September is an important variable [2][19] Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Bond Last Week's Data Review - **Funding Rates**: DR001 remained at around 1.31% with a 1BP weekly fluctuation; R001 was around 1.35% and closed at 1.34% on August 8th with a 1BP weekly fluctuation. DR007 fell 2BP from 1.45% on August 4th to 1.43% on August 8th; FR007 dropped from 1.48% to 1.46% with a 2BP weekly decline [7] - **Open Market Operations**: The central bank's reverse - repurchase injection volume shrank to 1126.7 billion yuan, with a total maturity of 1660 billion yuan, resulting in a net capital injection of - 536.5 billion yuan [7] - **Sino - US Market Interest Rates**: The inversion of the 10 - year bond yield spread between China and the US slightly increased. The 6 - month SOFR rate in the US dropped from 4.10% on August 4th to 4.06% on August 8th, while the 6 - month SHIBOR rate in China remained stable at 1.61%. As of August 8th, the 6 - month interest rate spread was - 245BP with a slightly reduced inversion. The 2 - year and 10 - year bond yield spreads were - 236BP and - 258BP respectively, with a slightly increased inversion in the short - and long - term spreads [13] - **Term Spreads**: The term spreads of Chinese bonds and US bonds both slightly expanded. The 10 - 2 year spread of Chinese bonds increased from 28BP to 29BP; the 10 - 2 year spread of US bonds expanded by 1BP to 51BP [15] - **Interest Rate Term Structure**: The yield curve of Chinese bonds shifted downward by about 2BP - 3BP; the yield curve of US bonds flattened, with most maturities rising except for the 3 - month maturity, and the mid - term callback was relatively large [15] 2. Narrowing of CPI and PPI Month - on - Month Declines - **CPI**: In July, the year - on - year CPI was flat, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The food item of CPI was - 1.6% year - on - year, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, while the non - food item was 0.3% year - on - year, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The core CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, with the growth rate expanding for three consecutive months. The month - on - month CPI rose from - 0.1% to 0.4%, the highest since February this year. Service consumption, driven by the summer tourism season, had a significant month - on - month increase [20][21] - **PPI**: In July, the year - on - year decline of PPI remained at 3.6%, and the month - on - month decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points to - 0.2%, the first narrowing since March this year. The narrowing of PPI month - on - month mainly relied on the recovery of producer goods ex - factory prices. The month - on - month decline in prices of multiple industries narrowed, which was consistent with the increase in commodity prices [28] 3. Key Bond Market Events Last Week - **US Employment Data and Fed Rate - Cut Probability**: The US non - farm payrolls in July increased by 73,000, lower than the expected 110,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.2%. The poor employment data increased the probability of a Fed rate cut in September [30] - **Bond Market Underwriting Regulations**: On August 7th, a notice on strengthening self - discipline management of bond underwriting quotes in the inter - bank bond market was issued, stating that lead underwriters should not bid for bond projects with underwriting fees below cost [32]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market experienced fluctuations with a slight decline in yields, influenced by the recovery of the equity market and the central bank's liquidity measures. The 10-year government bond yield fell by 1.68 basis points to 1.69% over the week [1][4]. Market Overview - The bond market saw a total issuance of 61 bonds amounting to 806.51 billion yuan, including 4.6855 billion yuan in government bonds and 1.725 billion yuan in policy bank bonds [7]. - The central bank conducted a buyout reverse repurchase operation of 700 billion yuan to maintain liquidity, resulting in a net injection of 163.5 billion yuan into the market [13][14]. Yield Changes - The yield curve for government bonds showed varied changes from August 1 to August 8, with the 10-year yield decreasing by 1.68 basis points to 1.6891% [2][3]. - The 30-year and 10-year futures contracts rose by 0.19% and 0.18%, respectively, indicating a bullish sentiment in the futures market [6]. International Market Context - The U.S. Treasury market showed signs of weakness, with yields rising by 6-8 basis points, reflecting a decrease in demand for newly issued bonds [8][9]. - The market anticipates three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of the year, with an 88.9% probability for a 25 basis point cut in September [11]. Institutional Insights - Analysts suggest that the recent issuance of local government bonds exceeded expectations, indicating a supportive stance from the central bank and a pursuit of yield by institutions [17][18]. - The bond market is expected to remain in a range-bound trading pattern, with specific attention to the 10-year government bond yield around 1.7% [17][18].

【内容摘要】8月8日，资金面延续平稳偏松态势；债市整体偏强震荡；转债市场继续小幅上涨，转债个 券多数上涨；各期限美债收益率普遍上行，主要欧洲经济体10年期国债收益率普遍上行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【7月CPI环比由降转涨，PPI环比降幅收窄】8月9日，国家统计局发布数据显示，7月CPI环比由降转 涨，上涨0.4%，同比持平；扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨0.8%，涨幅连续3个月扩大；PPI环 比下降0.2%，国内市场竞争秩序持续优化，环比降幅比6月收窄0.2个百分点，同比下降3.6%，降幅与6 月持平。7月CPI环比上涨主要受服务和工业消费品价格上涨带动，当月服务价格环比上涨0.6%，影响 CPI环比上涨约0.26个百分点，成为带动CPI环比增速"转正"的重要因素，工业消费品价格环比上涨 0.5%，涨幅比6月扩大0.4个百分点，影响CPI环比上涨约0.17个百分点。 【7月中小企业发展指数为89.0，与上月持平】根据中国中小企业协会8月10日发布的数据，7月中国中 小企业发展指数为89.0，与上月持平。具体来看，分项指数2升2平4降。7月资金指数和投入指数较上月 分别上升了0.2和0.1点， ...