Group 1: Capital Market Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasized the importance of stabilizing the capital market and reforming it to enhance market vitality, focusing on three main tasks: consolidating market recovery, deepening reforms, and promoting long-term capital inflow [1][9] - The CSRC highlighted the need for a stable and healthy market environment, supported by the certainty of high-quality economic development and asset valuation recovery [1][9] Group 2: Hainan Free Trade Port - The Hainan Free Trade Port is set to officially start its closure operations on December 18, 2025, with a focus on implementing zero-tariff policies and optimizing tax arrangements to support diverse consumer needs [1][7] - The government plans to continue the duty-free shopping policy for Hainan, adjusting it to meet the evolving shopping demands of consumers [1][7] Group 3: Price Law Revisions - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) released a draft amendment to the Price Law, aiming to improve government pricing regulations and clarify standards for identifying unfair pricing behaviors, including low-price dumping [2][8] - The draft also seeks to enhance legal responsibilities for price violations, increasing penalties for non-compliance with pricing regulations [2][8] Group 4: Fiscal Policy Updates - The Ministry of Finance announced the allocation of 69 billion yuan in special long-term bonds to support the "old for new" consumption initiative, with additional funds to be distributed in October [2][10] - The fiscal measures aim to stimulate consumption and support economic recovery [2][10] Group 5: Energy Efficiency and Carbon Emission Regulations - The NDRC introduced new guidelines for energy efficiency reviews and carbon emission evaluations for fixed asset investment projects, establishing a dynamic adjustment mechanism for energy review authority [2][10][11] - Projects with significant energy consumption will undergo comprehensive reviews to ensure compliance with energy-saving and carbon reduction goals [2][10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fiscal performance in the first half of the year, highlighting strong fiscal spending but a general lack of perceived impact on the economy, suggesting a need for targeted policies to enhance the effectiveness of fiscal measures [5][10][34]. Group 1: Fiscal Strength in the First Half - The broad fiscal expenditure growth rate in the first half of the year was 8.9%, exceeding the annual target growth rate of approximately 3.4% to 5.1% [5][18]. - The fiscal strength observed in the first half is considered the strongest since 2022, with historical comparisons showing varied growth rates from 2018 to 2024 [5][18]. Group 2: Perception of Fiscal Impact - Despite strong fiscal spending, the perceived impact on the economy was limited, attributed to insufficient project construction despite rapid government debt issuance [6][10]. - The net financing of government bonds reached 7.69 trillion yuan in the first half, marking a 55.5% progress rate, the highest since 2022 [6][20]. Group 3: Government Debt Structure - The structure of government debt issuance showed a preference for special refinancing bonds (90%) over general bonds and special bonds for project construction, which were lower at 47.5% and 49.1% respectively [7][22]. - The issuance of special bonds for project capital was 191.7 billion yuan, a 16% increase year-on-year, but significantly lower than the overall growth of special bonds [7][23]. Group 4: Fiscal Expenditure Structure - Fiscal expenditure focused on technology and livelihood, with infrastructure spending declining by 5.5% [8][26]. - Public fiscal expenditure growth rates were 9.2% for science and technology, 6.4% for livelihood, and negative for infrastructure [8][26]. Group 5: Credit Expansion and Local Government Actions - Local credit expansion showed a contraction in major provinces, indicating a cautious approach to financing [9][31]. - The reduction in the number of financing platforms was noted, which supports the transformation of these platforms towards more sustainable financing models [9][32]. Group 6: Outlook for the Second Half - The focus for the second half of the year is on incremental policies, with expectations of improved fiscal perception due to new policy tools and project support [10][35]. - Historical patterns suggest that when fiscal revenues fall short, incremental policies are typically introduced to compensate [13][41]. Group 7: June Fiscal Data Review - In June, fiscal revenue showed a slight decline of 0.3%, with tax revenue increasing for three consecutive months, driven by specific sectors like transportation and scientific research [15][46]. - Government fund income growth was notably high at 20.8%, primarily due to increased land sales [15][66].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall operation of general public budget revenue in the first half of 2025 was weak, with insufficient tax recovery momentum and limited support from non - tax revenue. The economic recovery foundation is still unstable, and the pressure on fiscal revenue growth remains significant. Meanwhile, the general public budget expenditure accelerated its expansion, focusing on people's livelihood and innovation, but the overall expenditure progress was slightly lower than the annual budget [3][4]. - The government - funded budget revenue in the first half of 2025 was under pressure, especially the land transfer revenue. In the context of the continuous adjustment of the real estate market, the growth of fund revenue lacks stable support. However, the government - funded budget expenditure accelerated, showing an active orientation of fiscal policies to stabilize growth and expand domestic demand [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs General Public Budget Revenue - In the first half of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 1.15566 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. Tax revenue was 929.15 billion yuan, down 1.2% year - on - year, while non - tax revenue was 226.51 billion yuan, up 3.7% year - on - year. Central revenue was 485.89 billion yuan, down 2.8% year - on - year, and local revenue was 669.77 billion yuan, up 1.6% year - on - year [35]. - Main tax items: domestic VAT was 363.93 billion yuan, up 2.8% year - on - year; domestic consumption tax was 89.8 billion yuan, up 1.7% year - on - year; enterprise income tax was 249.1 billion yuan, down 1.9% year - on - year; personal income tax was 79.45 billion yuan, up 8% year - on - year; export tax rebates were 127.02 billion yuan, up 11.6% year - on - year; etc [36][37][38][39][40]. General Public Budget Expenditure - In the first half of 2025, the national general public budget expenditure was 1.41271 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. Central expenditure was 199.14 billion yuan, up 9% year - on - year, and local expenditure was 1.21357 trillion yuan, up 2.6% year - on - year [46]. - Main expenditure items: education expenditure was 214.83 billion yuan, up 5.9% year - on - year; science and technology expenditure was 47.9 billion yuan, up 9.1% year - on - year; social security and employment expenditure was 245.04 billion yuan, up 9.2% year - on - year; etc [47][48][50]. Government - Funded Budget Revenue - In the first half of 2025, the national government - funded budget revenue was 194.42 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.4%. Central revenue was 21.73 billion yuan, up 4.8% year - on - year, and local revenue was 172.69 billion yuan, down 3.2% year - on - year. The state - owned land use right transfer income was 142.71 billion yuan, down 6.5% year - on - year [57]. Government - Funded Budget Expenditure - In the first half of 2025, the national government - funded budget expenditure was 462.73 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 30%. Central expenditure was 63.08 billion yuan, up 6.2 times year - on - year, and local expenditure was 399.65 billion yuan, up 15.1% year - on - year. The expenditure related to the state - owned land use right transfer income was 206.01 billion yuan, down 6.4% year - on - year [58][59].

Group 1: Capital Market Insights - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasized the importance of stabilizing the market and enhancing the vitality of multi-level markets, including the Sci-Tech Innovation Board[1] - The CSRC's focus includes promoting long-term capital inflow and improving the investment value of listed companies[11] - The CSRC aims to deepen reforms and enhance regulatory efficiency to ensure a stable market environment[11] Group 2: Hainan Free Trade Port Developments - The Hainan Free Trade Port is set to officially start its closure operations on December 18, 2025, with significant tax reforms planned[8] - The proportion of zero-tariff goods for "first-line" imports will increase from 21% to 74%, enhancing trade facilitation[9] - The government will continue to implement the duty-free shopping policy for outlying islands, optimizing it to meet diverse consumer needs[9] Group 3: Policy Updates - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) released a draft amendment to the Price Law, focusing on regulating unfair pricing behaviors and addressing "involution" competition[2] - The Ministry of Finance announced the allocation of 69 billion yuan in special bonds to support consumption initiatives, with a total of 162 billion yuan allocated in 2025[12] - The NDRC introduced new measures for energy-saving reviews and carbon emission evaluations for fixed asset investment projects, targeting projects with annual energy consumption of 50,000 tons of standard coal or more[12]

Core Viewpoint - The newly announced national childcare subsidy policy aims to support families with children under three years old, providing financial assistance to encourage higher birth rates and alleviate the financial burden of raising children [2][3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Policy Implementation - The childcare subsidy system will be implemented starting January 1, 2025, targeting children under three years old born in accordance with legal regulations [2][3]. - The current basic standard for the subsidy is set at 3,600 yuan per child per year, continuing until the child reaches three years old [2][5]. 2. Eligibility and Standards - The subsidy is available for all children under three years old, regardless of whether they are the first, second, or third child [3][5]. - Children born before January 1, 2025, who are under three years old will also be eligible for the subsidy, calculated based on the number of months they qualify [3][5]. 3. Application Process - Parents or guardians must apply for the subsidy at the child's registered household location, primarily through an online system, but offline applications are also accepted [6][7]. - The application requires submission of the child's birth certificate and household registration book, with local authorities conducting initial reviews [6][7]. 4. Funding and Distribution - The central government will establish a financial transfer payment project to support the subsidy, with funding distributed based on regional needs [8][9]. - The specific timing for subsidy distribution will be determined by local governments to ensure timely and adequate payments [9]. 5. Management and Oversight - A unified information management system will be established to ensure data sharing and security, with ongoing monitoring and evaluation of the subsidy program [10]. - Various government departments will oversee the implementation and ensure compliance with the subsidy regulations [10][11]. 6. Expected Impact - The childcare subsidy policy is expected to boost birth rates and serve as a significant tool for fiscal policy, with a multiplier effect on social consumption [14][15]. - It is estimated that the national subsidy program could exceed 100 billion yuan annually, significantly reducing the financial burden on families and promoting a healthier population structure in the long term [15].

Group 1 - The overall fiscal operation in the first half of 2025 is stable, with general public budget expenditure reaching 14.13 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [1][3] - National general public budget revenue is 11.56 trillion yuan, showing a slight decline of 0.3% year-on-year [1] - The issuance of new local government general and special bonds amounts to 2.6 trillion yuan, aimed at supporting major projects in key areas [1][3] Group 2 - Tax revenue for the first half of 2025 is 9.29 trillion yuan, down 1.2% year-on-year, but has shown a recovery with three consecutive months of growth starting from April [2] - Major tax categories such as domestic value-added tax, domestic consumption tax, and individual income tax have seen increases of 2.8%, 1.7%, and 8% respectively [2] - Non-tax revenue for the first half of 2025 is 2.27 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, although the growth rate has decreased compared to the first quarter [2] Group 3 - Significant increases in spending on social security and employment (9.2%), education (5.9%), and scientific technology (9.1%) have been noted [3] - The issuance and utilization of bond funds have accelerated, with 2.43 trillion yuan spent from government fund budgets, leading to a 30% increase in government fund budget expenditure [3] - Central government transfer payments to local governments have reached 9.29 trillion yuan, accounting for 89.8% of the annual budget, which is an increase of 1.7 percentage points compared to the previous year [3] Group 4 - The issuance of national bonds has reached a historical high of 7.88 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, an increase of 20.55 billion yuan or 35.28% year-on-year [4] - The special bond issuance has progressed well, with 555 billion yuan of ultra-long-term special bonds issued, accelerating by 18 percentage points compared to the previous year [4] - The "old-for-new" consumption initiative has resulted in sales of 1.6 trillion yuan in various consumer goods, contributing to a 5% year-on-year increase in total retail sales of consumer goods [4] Group 5 - The Ministry of Finance plans to arrange 2 trillion yuan in local government debt limits annually from 2024 to 2026 to support the replacement of existing hidden debts [5] - By the end of June 2025, 1.8 trillion yuan of the 2 trillion yuan replacement bonds for 2025 had been issued, with 1.44 trillion yuan already utilized [5] - The implementation of the replacement policy has alleviated liquidity pressure and facilitated the reform and transformation of financing platforms [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first half of the year, fiscal expenditure was front - loaded, while fiscal revenue was weak. The general budget fiscal deficit increased year - on - year, and the broad fiscal deficit rate was at a relatively high level. In June, the growth rates of general public budget revenue and expenditure both declined, while those of government - funded revenue and expenditure increased significantly. In the second half of the year, the intensity of fiscal expenditure is expected to decline, and policy - based financial instruments are expected to be introduced in the third quarter, while other incremental fiscal policies may need to wait [1][3][4][5]. Summary by Directory 1. First - half Fiscal Operation - **Revenue and Expenditure Growth**: From January to June, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of broad fiscal revenue was - 0.6%, remaining negative. The year - on - year growth rate of broad fiscal expenditure was 8.9%, indicating front - loaded expenditure. In June, the year - on - year growth rates of broad fiscal revenue and expenditure were 2.8% and 17.6% respectively, showing marginal improvement [9]. - **Budget Completion**: Compared with the annual budget, the revenue side fell short of expectations. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of general public budget revenue was - 0.3% (the annual budget was + 0.1%), mainly due to the actual - 1.2% growth of tax revenue (the annual budget was + 3.7%) and the 3.7% growth of non - tax revenue (the annual budget was - 14.2%). The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of government bond fund revenue was - 2.4%, and it was still challenging to achieve the 0.7% annual budget growth. On the expenditure side, the growth rate of fiscal expenditure was 3.4%, slightly lower than the 4.4% annual budget growth. The growth rate of government - funded expenditure was 30%, slightly lower than the 23.1% annual budget growth, and its sustainability needs further observation [1][11]. - **Deficit and Debt**: The general budget fiscal deficit in the first half of the year was 2.57 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of about 0.5 trillion yuan. Assuming a 4% nominal GDP growth this year, the cumulative broad fiscal deficit rate from January to June was 3.7%, at a relatively high level compared with previous years, similar to 2022, indicating strong support from debt income for fiscal expenditure. The issuance of general treasury bonds, replacement special bonds, and special treasury bonds was front - loaded, and the issuance of special bonds was neutral with an accelerating trend since the end of June [1][2][15]. 2. June Fiscal Data Review - **Revenue Side**: In June, the year - on - year growth rate of general public budget revenue turned negative (- 0.3%), but the structure improved. Tax revenue increased by 1.0% year - on - year, and non - tax revenue decreased by 3.7% year - on - year. Among taxes, personal income tax, domestic VAT, and securities trading stamp duty had relatively high growth rates. The year - on - year growth rate of government - funded revenue was 20.8%, a significant improvement, but its sustainability may be weak due to the continued weak growth of real estate investment [3][22][27]. - **Expenditure Side**: The expenditure intensity of the general public budget decreased, with a year - on - year growth rate of 0.38%. The year - on - year growth rate of government - funded expenditure increased significantly to 79.2%, mainly due to the improvement of government - funded revenue in June and the impact of the issuance of special treasury bonds since April. Structurally, traditional infrastructure expenditure continued to contract, while expenditure on science and technology and social security had relatively high growth rates [3][30]. 3. Outlook for the Second - half Fiscal Situation - **Expenditure Intensity**: The intensity of fiscal expenditure is expected to decline in the second half of the year. The net financing scale of government bonds is expected to decrease. It is estimated that the net financing of local bonds in the third and fourth quarters will be 1.7 trillion yuan and 537.4 billion yuan respectively, and that of treasury bonds will be 1.6 trillion yuan and 1.7 trillion yuan respectively. The net financing of government bonds in the third and fourth quarters will be 3.3 trillion yuan and 2.2 trillion yuan respectively, with a significant year - on - year decrease, which may drag down the year - on - year growth of fiscal expenditure. In addition, the scale of special bonds for project expenditure is also expected to decline in the second half of the year [4][34]. - **Policy Expectations**: The third quarter may enter a policy observation period. Policy - based financial instruments are expected to be introduced, but the timing is uncertain. Other incremental fiscal policies may need to wait until after the introduction of policy - based financial instruments or when the domestic economy weakens [5][41].

Revenue Insights - In the first half of 2025, general fiscal revenue totaled 11.56 trillion, down 0.3% year-on-year, with June revenue at 1.89 trillion, also down 0.31% year-on-year[1][2] - Government fund revenue in June was 395.9 billion, a significant increase of 20.8% year-on-year, driven mainly by land transfer income[9][10] Expenditure Trends - Total general fiscal expenditure in the first half reached 14.13 trillion, up 3.4% year-on-year, with June expenditure at 2.83 trillion, a mere 0.38% increase year-on-year[1][2] - Central fiscal expenditure grew by 9% year-on-year, significantly outpacing local expenditure growth of 2.6%[2][8] Economic Outlook - The GDP growth rate for the first half of 2025 was 5.3%, suggesting a potential slowdown to around 4.7% in the second half, still maintaining a target of "around 5%"[4][5] - New policies are expected from the Political Bureau by the end of July, but strong stimulus measures are unlikely, with a focus on gradual support[4][5] Fiscal Policy Considerations - The fiscal policy approach is expected to be a "two-step" process, focusing first on the implementation of existing policies and then adjusting based on economic conditions[5][6] - Key areas of focus include the pace of government bond issuance and the actual progress of physical work projects[5][6]

国债衍生品周报 2025/7/25 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关 ...

Revenue Analysis - In the first half of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 1,155.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%[2] - Tax revenue amounted to 929.15 billion yuan, down 1.2% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue increased by 3.7% to 226.51 billion yuan[2] - In June, the general public budget revenue showed a monthly year-on-year decline of 0.3%, compared to a previous value of 0.1%[3] Expenditure Insights - Total general public budget expenditure reached 1,412.71 billion yuan in the first half, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.4%[2] - Central government expenditure was 199.14 billion yuan, up 9%, while local government expenditure grew by 2.6% to 1,213.57 billion yuan[2] - In June, general public expenditure increased by only 0.4% year-on-year, marking the slowest growth since 2019[3][14] Fund Budget Performance - Government fund budget revenue surged by 20.8% in June, primarily driven by a 21.9% increase in land transfer income[4] - Government fund expenditure in June skyrocketed by 79.2%, with land-related expenditures rising to 5.9%[4] - For the first half of the year, the second budget's revenue decreased by 2.4%, while expenditure grew by 30%[4] Overall Fiscal Trends - The broad fiscal expenditure growth rate was significantly up at 17.6% in June, compared to 4% previously[5] - Broad fiscal revenue showed a year-on-year increase of 2.8% in June, reversing a previous decline of 1.2%[5] - Year-to-date, broad fiscal revenue has decreased by 0.6%, with a completion rate of 47.8%[5]