Core Viewpoint - The fiscal policy review for 2025 highlights a balance between stabilizing growth and preventing risks, with significant fiscal expansion not leading to improved fixed asset investment growth [2][3][32]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy Review for 2025 - The budget revenue showed a weak recovery, with a cumulative year-on-year growth turning positive in the first ten months, reaching 85% of the budget execution [5][9]. - Government fund revenue was negatively impacted by declining land transfer income, with a progress rate of 55% in the first ten months [9][12]. - The expenditure side saw a strong increase, with government fund expenditure growth reaching 220% for central government funds, while local expenditure grew by only 7.3% [9][12]. Group 2: Debt Management and Special Bonds - The "6+4+2" debt management plan for 2024 accelerated the debt resolution process, with a total of 3.88 trillion yuan allocated for debt resolution and clearing corporate arrears, exceeding initial expectations [16][20]. - The issuance of special bonds reached 4.4 trillion yuan by mid-November, with a significant portion allocated for debt resolution and land reserve projects, leading to a partial crowding-out effect on infrastructure projects [12][22]. Group 3: Outlook for 2026 - The fiscal policy for 2026 is expected to be more proactive, with a projected deficit rate maintained at around 4%, signaling the necessity of fiscal expansion [3][35]. - New special bond quotas may be increased to approximately 5 trillion yuan to support infrastructure projects, particularly in the context of the "15th Five-Year Plan" [3][35]. - The fiscal revenue is anticipated to remain under pressure due to declining land transfer income, which has historically accounted for 70%-80% of government fund revenue [38][39]. Group 4: Expenditure and Economic Growth - The relationship between GDP growth and fiscal expenditure is expected to persist, with government leveraging fiscal expansion to support economic growth amid weak expectations from residents and enterprises [40][45]. - Central government spending is likely to focus on major projects, with local governments continuing to rely heavily on central transfers due to limited self-financing capabilities [45][46].

Group 1: Real Estate Cycle - The long-term upward cycle of real estate from 2000 to 2020 led to a widespread belief that housing prices would not decline, despite contrary predictions from analysts like Professor Zhu Ning [2][3] - The average rental yield in core cities of China is estimated to be around 2%, indicating a high price-to-earnings ratio of 50 times, suggesting that a rental yield of 3% is necessary for a price bottom [3][6] - Real estate development investment in China decreased by 14.7% year-on-year in the first ten months of the year, indicating a potential acceleration in the downward trend [3][6] Group 2: Economic Impact - The decline in the real estate sector is expected to continue affecting China's economy through 2026, with significant impacts on related industries and financial sectors [3][6] - The slowdown in urbanization, aging population, and declining total population are identified as pressures on the real estate market post-2021 [6] - The contribution of real estate to GDP and employment is significant, and its decline could hinder overall economic growth [6][12] Group 3: Export Trends - China's exports grew by 5.3% in the first ten months of the year, contrary to initial fears of negative growth, with a notable increase in capital and technology-intensive products [7][8] - However, the growth in exports is expected to slow down in the coming year due to the diminishing "import grabbing" effect from the U.S. and high base effects from previous years [11][12] - The ongoing trade tensions and tariff wars between major economies are likely to impact future export performance negatively [11][12] Group 4: Consumer Spending - Consumer spending is projected to become a more significant contributor to GDP growth, especially as export growth declines [12][16] - The consumption growth has shown a pattern of being higher in the first half of the year, with expectations of a slowdown in the latter half due to high base effects from previous years [15][16] - Long-term improvements in consumption will depend on rising household incomes and increased marginal propensity to consume, which are currently challenged by the real estate downturn [16][19] Group 5: Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The fiscal policy for 2026 is expected to be more aggressive, with a projected increase in the general deficit from approximately 11.9 trillion yuan to 13.2 trillion yuan [28][31] - Interest rates may be lowered by 10-20 basis points in 2026 to stimulate demand, although this poses challenges for banks' net interest margins [35][36] - Coordination between fiscal and monetary policies is deemed essential to address the economic challenges and support growth [40][41] Group 6: Stock Market Outlook - The stock market has faced resistance around the 4000-point mark, with the need for corporate profit growth to outpace GDP growth for a sustained bull market [41][43] - The current economic environment suggests that corporate profitability must improve significantly to support stock market performance [41][43] - Structural bull markets are anticipated, particularly in the context of the AI revolution, which may provide new growth opportunities for companies [47][48]

Group 1 - The article discusses the importance of pricing strategies in achieving success by 2026, emphasizing the need for effective fiscal and monetary policies [2][6] - Expectations for future risk-free interest rate trends are analyzed, indicating potential shifts that could impact investment decisions [6] - The article highlights the significance of understanding market dynamics and policy implications for long-term investment strategies [6] Group 2 - The research emphasizes the role of macroeconomic indicators in shaping investment opportunities and risks in the coming years [4] - Insights into the anticipated fiscal policies and their potential effects on various sectors are provided, suggesting areas for strategic focus [4][6] - The analysis includes projections for economic growth and market performance, which are crucial for investors to consider [4][6]

Global Economic Outlook - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects a global economic growth of 3.2% in 2025, up by 0.2 percentage points from previous forecasts, and a growth of 3.1% in 2026, unchanged from July predictions [1] - Chief Economist at ICBC International, Cheng Shi, indicates that the global economy is entering a phase characterized by fiscal dominance amid multiple uncertainties [1] Fiscal Policy and Monetary Policy - Cheng Shi notes that major economies are increasing fiscal expansion to counteract downward pressures, as monetary policy transmission efficiency is limited due to high debt levels [1] - The anticipated monetary policy landscape for 2026 suggests that most major central banks will adopt a wait-and-see approach, with the European Central Bank pausing activities and the Bank of England nearing the end of rate cuts [2] U.S. Economic Projections - U.S. investment and consumption are expected to slow down, with GDP growth projected at around 1.8% and inflation at approximately 2.9% in 2026 [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates to a neutral level of 3% to 3.25% [2] Investment Outlook - Barclays forecasts that U.S. tech stocks will continue to lead the market in 2026, driven by sustained growth in AI-related capital expenditures and robust performance in cloud services and digital advertising [2] - Chinese stocks are also viewed positively, with expectations of strong performance in 2025 and a low valuation compared to other major markets [3] Market Dynamics in China - The Hang Seng Index has shown significant gains, with a rise of over 30% since 2025, and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by over 50% [3] - Analysts believe that the current A-share market has room for upward movement, supported by substantial household savings in China [3][4]

Group 1: Market Overview - The overall market experienced a pullback last week, but funding pressure is expected to improve marginally due to a rebound in private equity registrations and public fund launches, with private fund registrations rising to 337, exceeding 300 for two consecutive weeks [2][3] - The peak of A-share unlock market value has passed, and the net reduction in industrial capital has shown a marginal decline, indicating a reduction in funding supply pressure [2] Group 2: Fixed Income Analysis - In the construction industry, the supply and demand remain weak, with new home transactions showing a decline while second-hand home transactions have slightly increased [2] - The industrial sector shows strong freight volume performance, but production rates are mixed, with some sectors like coking and independent refineries seeing an increase, while the chemical and automotive sectors remain weak [2] Group 3: Energy Sector Insights - In the global gas turbine market, new orders increased by 95% year-on-year to 24GW in Q3 2025, driven by various factors including energy policy shifts and AI power demand [5] - The high demand for gas turbines is expected to boost exports for domestic component manufacturers, with companies like Yingliu and Haomai Technology positioned to benefit [5] Group 4: Fiscal Policy Outlook - The fiscal policy in 2026 is expected to be more proactive, with a projected fiscal deficit rate of around 4% and an increase in special bond quotas to approximately 5 trillion yuan to support debt resolution and other initiatives [6][7] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference will serve as a key observation point for policy reserves and future deployments [6] Group 5: Company-Specific Analysis - Kangnuo Ya-B (2162 HK) is highlighted for its potential in the global autoimmune pipeline, with a market cap increase of over 75% recently, and promising early clinical data for its CM512 product [9] - Black Sesame Intelligence (2533 HK) is recognized for its advancements in the robotics sector with the launch of the SesameX multi-dimensional intelligent computing platform, indicating strong growth potential [10]

固收-年末"最后一跌"，或可配置 20251124 摘要 当前市场是一个较好的配置窗口，10 年期国债收益率上行至 1.83%左 右是一个安全保护点位，年末需关注农村金融机构的买入水平，这将决 定后续是否会有一波配置行情启动。 预计 2026 年财政政策延续积极基调，赤字率维持 4%左右，国债发行 量预计约为 5 万亿，准财政工具仍有发力空间，特别国债和新增专项债 可能增加，政府资金需求比今年增加约 1.3 万亿。 当前推荐阿尔法挖掘策略中的 7~10 年证金债和 3~5 年品种，以及 10 年期国债，超长端具有较好的配置性价比，本周相对较好的阿尔法品种 包括短端 3~5 年的政金债和 30 年的超长端国债老券。 当前市场胜率较高但赔率有限，不必过度焦虑，可以逐步建仓以布局明 年的票息收入，关注农村金融机构等主要资金动向，以便及时调整投资 策略。 预计 2026 年政府部门的财政支持力度将从 2025 年的 68%左右上升到 70.5%左右，增幅有所放缓，但整体趋势仍然是上升的。 预计 2026 年普通国债发行规模将达到 7.1 万亿人民币，地方债总计约 7.5 万亿人民币，一季度融资节奏较快，需关注供给压力 ...

2025 年野村中国投资年会已在深圳圆满落幕，野村经济学家、分析师和策略师为投资者、企业家深入剖 析市场动态，解读热点话题。请点击以下视频，查看野村主要发言嘉宾就市场变化、宏观经济走势、 AI 浪潮以及货币政策调整等核心议题进行的精彩分享和深入探讨。 Arvind Shah 野村亚洲（除日本外）股票研究销售主管 苏博文 Rob Subbarama 野村全球宏观研究主管及全 球市场研究部 联席主管 大家好。很高兴再次来到深圳，参加野村中国投资年会。今年是第17届中国投资论坛，我们看 到全球宏观讨论会场座无虚席。 我们在会上谈到了今年经济在面临来自美国关税和地缘政治的诸多冲击下，展现出韧性。展望 未来，我们还讨论到人工智能在推动经济体发展中变得越来越重要。我们的确也看到了日益增 长的分歧。我们预计美国2026年GDP增长2.4%、欧元区增长1.2%、日本增长0.6%。 但有趣的是，我们认为货币政策也将会大相径庭。我们认为美联储明年将再降息三次、欧洲央 行已经停止降息，日本央行将逆势而行在明年一月加息。 最后我想说，财政政策在减少全球预算赤字方面进展甚微。我们知道收入不平等在加剧，国 防、养老、气候变化、灾害方面的 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a fixed - income report released on November 24, 2025, written by analyst Liang Weichao and research assistant Wang Yi [1][2] Group 2: 2025 Government Bond Supply Review - In 2025, the deficit - to - GDP ratio was increased to 4%, resulting in a significant increase in government bond supply. As of the end of November, the cumulative government bond issuance was about 24.08 trillion yuan, with a net financing of about 13.23 trillion yuan. It is estimated that the full - year issuance will reach 26.31 trillion yuan, with a net financing of 13.85 trillion yuan [3][11][12] - The issuance of government bonds in 2025 was generally fast. The issuance of national debt from January to November was at a relatively fast pace compared to the same period in the past five years. The issuance of local government bonds was more balanced, and the progress accelerated again in the fourth quarter [12] Group 3: 2026 Government Bond Supply Outlook 3.1 Fiscal Policy and Overall Supply - In 2026, the fiscal policy will remain proactive, with a stable total bond - issuance volume and a focus on quality and efficiency improvement. The deficit - to - GDP ratio is expected to remain at around 4%, the deficit scale is about 5.95 trillion yuan, and the special bond quota is expected to increase to 4.8 trillion yuan. The scale of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds is expected to increase to about 1.8 trillion yuan, and the annual debt - resolution arrangement is expected to remain at 2 trillion yuan. The estimated general deficit scale in 2026 is about 14.55 trillion yuan, corresponding to a general deficit - to - GDP ratio of about 9.8% [4][14] - The total government bond supply in 2026 is about 25 trillion yuan, and the net financing target is 14.42 trillion yuan, remaining at a historically high level but with limited impact [5] 3.2 National Debt - The total national debt issuance in 2026 is expected to be 13.9 trillion yuan, a decrease from the previous year due to reduced maturity pressure. The net financing target is about 6.9 trillion yuan, a slight increase from 2025. The maturity pressure is expected to be about 7 trillion yuan [4][17][18] - The issuance progress of national debt in 2026 is expected to be more gradual than in 2025. The supply shock in the first quarter will ease year - on - year. The net financing peak may be concentrated in the third and fourth quarters [20] 3.3 Local Government Bonds - The total issuance of local government bonds in 2026 is expected to be 11.12 trillion yuan, slightly higher than the previous year. The new local government bond scale is expected to be about 5.72 trillion yuan. The ordinary refinancing bond issuance is expected to be 3.12 trillion yuan, and the special refinancing bond issuance is expected to be 2.29 trillion yuan [23] - June and August 2026 are the peak repayment months for local government bonds. The issuance rhythm may be more front - loaded, with supply peaks in the first and second quarters [24][27] Group 4: Policy Coordination and Uncertainties - In 2026, the coordination between fiscal and monetary policies will be more effective. The central bank will continue to release medium - and long - term liquidity to ease the supply shock, and the fiscal side will pay more attention to structural investment and debt - resolution rhythm [5] - Uncertainties in government bond supply in 2026 mainly include the demand for special treasury bonds and new arrangements after the debt - resolution quota is used up. The special treasury bonds may have new uses, and the debt - resolution pressure in some local areas remains high, especially the problem of enterprise accounts receivable [32]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock market has a certain degree of short - term uncertainty due to previous rises and overseas market adjustments, but the medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. - The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover in the fourth quarter, with attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect and the increasing allocation power [8]. - For precious metals, it is recommended to hold a bottom position and wait and see, with the Fed's easing policy expected to further drive prices in December [10]. - Most non - ferrous metals are expected to be in a state of shock in the short term, with different support and pressure factors [13][15][18]. - The steel market is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, but demand may improve with policy implementation [36]. - The energy and chemical market shows different trends, with some products recommended for long - term strategies and others for short - term caution [56][58][60]. - The agricultural product market also has various trends, such as short - term weak operation for some and shock - based operation for others [81][86]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **Market Information**: The US government may allow NVIDIA to sell H200 chips to China; the SASAC held a central enterprise specialization integration promotion meeting; Changxin Storage released new DDR5 products; a Goldman Sachs partner said the US stock market may continue to sell off [2]. - **Strategy View**: After previous rises and influenced by overseas market adjustments, the short - term index is uncertain, but the medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bond - **Market Information**: The main contracts of TL, T, and TF decreased on Friday, while TS remained unchanged. The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates, and the US PMI data showed mixed results. The central bank conducted a net injection of 1622 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy View**: The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover in the fourth quarter, with attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect and the increasing allocation power [8]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold prices rose slightly, and silver prices fell. The US 10 - year Treasury yield and the US dollar index were reported. Fed officials' "dovish" remarks supported precious metal prices [9]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to hold a bottom position and wait and see, with the Fed's easing policy expected to further drive prices in December [10]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Information**: The copper price rebounded after a decline, with LME copper inventory decreasing and domestic spot premiums rising [12]. - **Strategy View**: The copper price is expected to be in a state of shock in the short term, with strong support at the bottom [13]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The aluminum price rebounded after a decline, with domestic and overseas inventory changes and improved downstream procurement sentiment [14]. - **Strategy View**: The aluminum price is expected to strengthen after an oscillatory adjustment, with strong support [15]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The zinc price rose slightly, with changes in inventory and basis [16]. - **Strategy View**: The zinc price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with the zinc industry still in an over - supply cycle [18]. Lead - **Market Information**: The lead price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [19]. - **Strategy View**: The lead price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with relatively loose supply [19]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The nickel price continued to fall, with changes in spot premiums and cost [20]. - **Strategy View**: The nickel price is expected to be under pressure in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [21][22]. Tin - **Market Information**: The tin price fell slightly, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory. The safety situation in the DRC may affect tin mines [23]. - **Strategy View**: The tin price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [24]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The carbonate lithium price fell, with changes in spot and futures prices [25]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to pay attention to potential disturbances and the reference range of the main contract [26]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [28]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, with attention to supply - side policies [29]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel price rose slightly, with changes in inventory and cost [30]. - **Strategy View**: The stainless steel price is expected to continue to decline weakly, with an over - supply situation [30]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The cast aluminum alloy price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [31]. - **Strategy View**: The price is expected to be in a state of shock in the short term [33]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Information**: The steel price rose slightly, with changes in inventory and basis [35]. - **Strategy View**: The steel price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, but demand may improve with policy implementation [36]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore price fell slightly, with changes in inventory and basis [37]. - **Strategy View**: The iron ore price is expected to oscillate within a range, with strong supply and stable demand [38][39]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass price fell, and the soda ash price fell. There were changes in inventory and basis [40][41]. - **Strategy View**: The glass price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and the soda ash price is expected to be weakly volatile [40][41]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The manganese silicon price fell, and the ferrosilicon price rose slightly. There were changes in inventory and basis [42]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and price, and to look for opportunities to rebound [44][45]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon price fell, and the polysilicon price rose slightly. There were changes in inventory and basis [46][49]. - **Strategy View**: The industrial silicon price is expected to oscillate, and the polysilicon price is expected to oscillate within a wide range [48][50]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price oscillated and adjusted, with changes in tire factory start - up rates and inventory [52][54]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to have a bullish strategy with stop - loss settings and partial hedging [56]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The crude oil price fell, and there were changes in refined oil prices and inventory [57]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and test OPEC's export price - support willingness [58]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The methanol price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [59]. - **Strategy View**: The methanol price is expected to continue to decline weakly, with high inventory pressure [60]. Urea - **Market Information**: The urea price rose slightly, with changes in inventory and basis [61]. - **Strategy View**: The urea price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [61]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The pure benzene price was unchanged, and the styrene price rose. There were changes in inventory and basis [62]. - **Strategy View**: The styrene price may stop falling in stages, with cost and demand factors [63]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC price was unchanged, with changes in inventory and basis [64]. - **Strategy View**: The PVC price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to go short in the medium term [66]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [67]. - **Strategy View**: The ethylene glycol price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to go short in the medium term [68]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [69]. - **Strategy View**: The PTA price is expected to be affected by supply, demand, and valuation factors [71]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: The para - xylene price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [72]. - **Strategy View**: The para - xylene price is expected to have a risk of valuation correction, with high supply and low demand [73]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [74]. - **Strategy View**: The PE price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with cost and demand factors [75]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP price fell, with changes in inventory and basis [77]. - **Strategy View**: The PP price is expected to be affected by cost and demand factors, and may be supported in the first quarter of next year [78]. Agricultural Products Category Pig - **Market Information**: The pig price fluctuated, with normal supply and limited demand [80]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go short on the near - month contract or do reverse spreads [81]. Egg - **Market Information**: The egg price was stable with partial increases, with reduced inventory pressure and increased replenishment willingness [82]. - **Strategy View**: The egg price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to go short after a rebound in the medium term [83][84]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The soybean meal price was stable, with changes in import cost, inventory, and demand [85]. - **Strategy View**: The soybean meal price is expected to oscillate, with cost support and pressure on crushing margins [86]. Edible Oils - **Market Information**: The edible oil price fell, with weak palm oil export data and high supply [87]. - **Strategy View**: The palm oil price is recommended to be viewed with an oscillatory perspective, and turn to a bullish strategy if production decreases [88][89]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The sugar price fell, with an expected global surplus in the 2025/26 season and increased imports [90][91]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait for a rebound and then go short [91]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The cotton price oscillated narrowly, with changes in production, inventory, and demand [92][93]. - **Strategy View**: The cotton price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with no strong driving force [94].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is intensifying its fiscal policy efforts as the year-end approaches, with a focus on advancing the planning and issuance of special bonds for 2026 to support key projects and economic recovery [1][2][3] Group 1: Fiscal Policy and Special Bonds - The Ministry of Finance plans to continue issuing new local government debt limits for 2026 to ensure funding for major projects and bolster economic recovery [1] - Various regions, such as Hubei and Jiangxi, have initiated the planning and review of special bond projects for 2026, focusing on areas like education, healthcare, and urban infrastructure [1][2] - As of November 23, the total issuance of new special bonds this year has reached approximately 42,315 billion yuan, achieving 96% of the annual target of 44,000 billion yuan [2] Group 2: Importance of Project Planning - Experts emphasize the necessity of early planning for special bond investment projects, particularly those aimed at urban renewal and improving living conditions, to ensure a stable economic outlook and high-quality development [2] - The proactive approach of local governments in preparing for 2026 special bond projects reflects a strong commitment to stabilizing investment and expanding domestic demand [2][3] - The successful issuance of special bonds this year has played a crucial role in stabilizing the macro economy and enhancing public welfare, laying a solid foundation for future fiscal policy continuity [3]