日本央行行长植田和男：如果经济符合预期，日本央行将继续调整货币宽松的力度。 ...

智通财经5月8日电，日本央行行长植田和男称，如果经济符合预期，日本央行将继续调整货币宽松的力 度。 ...

2025 年 5 月初，中国密集出台货币宽松政策并启动中美贸易谈判，成为全球经济焦点。野村证券、摩 根士丹利、摩根大通及高盛四大投行通过深度报告，从政策效果、贸易前景、经济预期等维度展开分 析，为市场提供了立体化的观察视角。 一、货币宽松政策：多工具协同发力，应对内外挑战 2025 年 5 月 7 日，中国人民银行联合国家金融监督管理总局、中国证监会召开政策吹风会，推出新一 轮货币宽松组合拳，多家投行对政策细节及影响展开解读。 野村证券指出，此次政策包括50 个基点全面降准（释放 1 万亿元流动性）、10 个基点政策利率下调（7 天逆回购利率降至 1.4%）、25 个基点结构性工具利率下调（含再贷款、PSL 及公积金房贷利率），以 及1.1 万亿元新增再贷款额度（聚焦服务消费、养老、科技及中小企业）。尽管政策力度略低于野村此 前预期的 "15 个基点政策利率下调"，但多形式利率下调仍有助于降低融资成本，该行维持 "四季度再 降 50 个基点 RRR 及 15 个基点政策利率" 的预测。 摩根士丹利强调，此次政策 "略超市场预期"，体现了中国在中美谈判前 "提振内需信心" 的意图。除总 量宽松外，结构性工具成为 ...

Group 1 - German and UK government bonds outperform US Treasuries amid risk-off buying following the EU's plan for reciprocal tariffs against the US [1] - The money market maintains expectations for a 23 basis point rate cut by the European Central Bank in June, with increased bets for an additional 2 basis points of easing [1] - Swap trades indicate a total expected rate cut of 64 basis points by the end of the year [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in the range of 4.25% to 4.5% [1] - Traders and economists anticipate the Bank of England will lower rates by 25 basis points to 4.25% on Thursday [1] - Swap trades suggest a total expected rate cut of 96 basis points by the end of the year for the Bank of England [1]

每周一景： 云南玉龙雪山 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【 宏观】货币宽松"再发力"——5月7日央行一揽子货币政策点评 降准降息落地，在关键时点释放出"适度宽松"来"稳增长、稳市场"的明确信号，体现了央行前瞻部署、主 动作为。 一揽子三大类 10 项货币政策组合，体现了货币政策总量与结构协同发力，对实体和资本市场的 全面支持。在外部关税冲击、内需还待提振的背景下，央行宽松周期预计将延续，接下来如果经济压力进 一步增加，降息降准等仍有空间。 财政或继续加快债券发行节奏，尤其是增加对消费领域支持力度，如有必要，下半年或继续增加全年财政 额度；房地产政策也有望进一步放松。另外 ，出口方面的针对性支持政策也在加码。 短期来看，关税摩擦对市场预期的影响相比于前期可能已在减弱，预期冲击最大的时候可能已经过去。 不 过从对经济的影响来看，实际冲击可能从 4 月数据开始逐步显现，再加上当前内需还要进一步巩固的背景 下，更需关注接下来国内经济基本面变化：一是 4 月出口可能还有前期抢出口的支撑，但 5 、 6 月份数 据可能会明显体现关税的冲击；二是地产的止跌企稳可能还需要更多政策支持，三是居民部门资产负债表 压力或未明显缓解。 ...

·概 要 · 5月7日国新办召开新闻发布会，央行行长宣布三大类一共10项金融支持政策，货币宽松明显 发力支持"稳增长、稳预期"，接下来如果经济压力进一步增加，降息降准等仍有空间。 降准降息落地，在关键时点释放出"适度宽松"来"稳增长、稳市场"的明确信号，体现了央行前 瞻部署、主动作为。一揽子三大类10项货币政策组合，体现了货币政策总量与结构协同发 力，对实体和资本市场的全面支持。在外部关税冲击、内需还待提振的背景下，央行宽松周期 预计将延续，接下来如果经济压力进一步增加，降息降准等仍有空间。 财政或继续加快债券发行节奏，尤其是增加对消费领域支持力度，如有必要，下半年或继续增 加全年财政额度；房地产政策也有望进一步放松。另外，出口方面的针对性支持政策也在加 码。 短期来看，关税摩擦对市场预期的影响相比于前期可能已在减弱，预期冲击最大的时候可能已 经过去。不过从对经济的影响来看，实际冲击可能从4月数据开始逐步显现，再加上当前内需 还要进一步巩固的背景下，更需关注接下来国内经济基本面变化：一是4月出口可能还有前期 抢出口的支撑，但5、6月份数据可能会明显体现关税的冲击；二是地产的止跌企稳可能还需 要更多政策支持，三 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that a series of financial policies are expected to support market stability and economic growth, with a focus on monetary easing and technological innovation [1][2] - The People's Bank of China has introduced 10 policy measures aimed at increasing long-term liquidity, lowering financing costs, and stabilizing the real estate market, including a 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, which is expected to release approximately 1 trillion yuan [1] - The report highlights that the financial regulatory authority will implement 8 policies to stabilize the real estate and stock markets, including accelerating the introduction of financing systems compatible with new real estate development models [1][2] Group 2 - Short-term trends indicate that A-shares may experience a strong oscillation, supported by policies that could enhance economic growth and corporate profit expectations, such as lower interest rates and support for real estate financing [2][3] - The report suggests that the policies will lead to a significant short-term increase in liquidity, which may attract capital inflows into the stock market, thereby enhancing market risk appetite [2] - The mid-term outlook indicates a solidification of a slow bull market logic for A-shares, as the policies are expected to improve credit conditions and corporate profitability [2] Group 3 - The report identifies that the policy package may create short-term investment opportunities in technology, core assets, and large financial sectors, driven by a focus on technological innovation and liquidity support [3][5] - It notes that the policies aimed at boosting consumption and stabilizing the real estate market could also benefit core assets in finance, consumption, and healthcare sectors [5]

美国国债在美联储利率决议前下跌，因面对显示经济韧性的数据，投资者押注货币宽松步伐将放缓。 对投资者来说，问题是如何权衡近期一些调查中看到的经济悲观情绪与就业等顶级指标所显示的韧性。虽然4月份美国消费者信心跌至近五年低点，但非农 就业人数超过了彭博社编制的所有预测。 未平仓合约数据显示，在周五就业数据公布后，曲线前端出现去杠杆化和头寸平仓，与多头头寸的清算一致。周二的摩根大通美债客户调查显示，中性头寸 仍处于高位，接近年度高点。"在我看来，目前要对美债做出特别高确信度的判断仍然很难，"Pepperstone策略师迈克尔.布朗表示。"就关税对宏观的影响而 言，债券市场参与者最终会站在哪一边仍有待观察，增长下行和通胀上行风险几乎同样普遍。" 预计美联储周三将维持基准利率在4.25%-4.50%不变，交易员将密切关注美联储主席杰罗姆.鲍威尔的言论，以了解官员们对近期数据的解读，以及总统唐纳 德.特朗普的经济政策是否促使他们对何时放松政策的看法发生任何变化。 这是因为对进口商品征收关税削弱了消费者信心，同时也可能加剧价格压力。"这次会议对预期的影响可能比往常更大，因为这是互征关税声明后的首次利 率决议，"德国商业银行利 ...

Market Overview - On May 7, A-shares saw a collective rise in the three major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.64% to 3337.23 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.19% to 10101.18 points, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.40% to 1994.38 points [1] - The total market saw 3481 stocks rise and 1712 stocks fall, with 99 stocks hitting the daily limit up [1] - The total trading volume for the two markets reached 965.8 billion [1] Policy Impact - The People's Bank of China announced a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, expected to provide approximately 1 trillion in long-term liquidity to the market [2] - A policy interest rate cut of 0.1 percentage points was also announced, lowering the 7-day reverse repurchase rate from 1.5% to 1.4%, which is anticipated to lead to a similar decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [2] Real Estate Sector - Following the policy announcements, the real estate sector showed initial strength, with stocks like Sanxiang Impression and Tianbao Infrastructure hitting the daily limit up [3] - A report from Huatai Securities indicated that the real estate industry is entering a phase of incremental policy support, with a focus on core cities, particularly first-tier cities, for recovery [3] Military and Transportation Sectors - The military sector experienced significant gains, with stocks such as Tongyi Aerospace and Chenxi Aviation hitting the daily limit up [3] - The intelligent transportation and ride-hailing sectors also performed actively, with stocks like Dazhong Transportation and Jinjiang Online reaching the daily limit up [4] Underperforming Sectors - The film and cinema sector lagged, with Shanghai Film dropping over 5%, and other stocks like Happiness Blue Sea and Ao Fei Entertainment also declining [5] - AI applications and semiconductor stocks saw declines, with companies like Runze Technology and Data Port experiencing varying degrees of downturn [5] Market Sentiment - Analysts noted that the market's reaction to the central bank's policies was largely in line with expectations, indicating that the anticipated monetary easing had already been priced in [5] - The continuation and strengthening of policies are expected to alleviate concerns regarding economic weakness and stabilize the capital market [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that certain incremental policies will be introduced by the end of June, with the timing dependent on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [1] - The current interest rate differential between China and the US is significant, and if the Federal Reserve does not lower rates, China may have to maintain its current stance to prevent capital outflow [1] - The expectation is that the Federal Reserve may lower rates in May, which would likely prompt the Chinese central bank to take action around mid-May [1] Group 2 - Short-term pressure exists on bank stocks due to disappointing earnings, but long-term investment interest remains focused on dividend yields [3] - A decline in bank stocks often leads to a shift in market dynamics, with growth stocks performing better when bank stocks fall [3] - The performance of bank stocks has been lackluster, with growth rates declining from around 5% to stagnation or even decreases [4] Group 3 - The first quarter reports from the six major banks have been collectively disclosed [5] - The market may be entering a phase characterized by a focus on individual stocks rather than overall index performance, with large-cap stocks like banks dragging down indices while small-cap stocks thrive [7] - After a month of volatility, market sentiment is improving, and if no significant negative news arises during the upcoming holiday, positive sentiment may continue [7]