Loan and Credit Growth - In June, new loans reached 2.24 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 110 billion RMB, consistent with seasonal high growth patterns[3] - The total new loans for Q2 2025 amounted to 3.14 trillion RMB, with a monthly average year-on-year decrease of 223.3 billion RMB[3] - New corporate medium- and long-term loans surged by 1.01 trillion RMB in June, marking a year-on-year increase of 400 billion RMB, indicating the importance of infrastructure investment for growth stabilization[3] Social Financing and Government Debt - New social financing in June hit 4.2 trillion RMB, a significant year-on-year increase of 900.8 billion RMB[4] - The issuance of new government bonds in June reached 1.35 trillion RMB, up by 507.2 billion RMB year-on-year, contributing to the overall social financing growth[4] - The total new government debt for the first half of the year was 7.66 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 4.32 trillion RMB[4] Monetary Supply and Market Trends - M2 growth rebounded to 8.3% year-on-year in June, a 0.4 percentage point increase, reaching a 16-month high[5] - In June, household and corporate deposits increased by 330 billion RMB and 777.3 billion RMB year-on-year, respectively, while non-bank financial institution deposits decreased by 340 billion RMB[5] - The M1 growth rate jumped to 4.6% year-on-year, a significant increase of 2.3 percentage points, marking the highest level since June 2023[5] Economic Outlook and Risks - The report highlights a structural divergence between credit and social financing, with the need for further observation on whether the trend will improve[5] - Potential upward pressure on the RMB due to a stabilizing US dollar index may impose new constraints on monetary easing policies[5] - The effectiveness of monetary easing policies may be weaker than expected, posing a risk to economic recovery[6]

Export Performance - June exports increased by 5.8% year-on-year, up 1.0 percentage points from May, but down 3.7 percentage points compared to Q4 2024[3] - Exports to the US saw a significant narrowing of the decline to -16.1%, an improvement of 18.4 percentage points since mid-May[4] - Exports to ASEAN and Hong Kong rose by 2.0 and 5.3 percentage points to 16.8% and 16.7% respectively[4] Import Trends - June imports grew by 1.1% year-on-year, a substantial improvement of 4.5 percentage points from May, marking a return to positive growth after three months[5] - The decline in crude oil imports narrowed to -14.3%, a reduction of 7.9 percentage points, influenced by rising oil prices due to geopolitical tensions[5] - Capital goods, chemicals, and intermediate goods for domestic demand showed improvement in imports, while processing trade and consumer goods imports declined[5] Economic Outlook - The second quarter's export performance is expected to positively impact economic growth, driven by the temporary easing of US-China tariffs and resilient export supply chains[6] - However, potential risks include increased uncertainty in global trade policies and a possible decline in exports to the US and ASEAN after July[6] - The central bank may consider monetary easing to stabilize the real estate market and support domestic demand if exports decline significantly post-August[6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various non - ferrous metals and new energy metals, presenting different outlooks for each. For example, gold is expected to be in high - level oscillation, while silver is predicted to rise strongly, and copper is expected to be in a long - term upward trend with short - term fluctuations [1]. - There are uncertainties in the market due to factors such as Trump's tariff policies, Fed's monetary policy, and global economic trends, which have an impact on the prices of different metals [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Core View**: High - level oscillation [1]. - **Main Logic**: The Fed's monetary easing is likely due to high - tariff policies and potential Powell resignation. In the long run, many countries' fiscal expansion and central banks' gold - buying continue, and there are still many uncertainties [1]. - **Price Range**: [765 - 795] [1]. - **Strategy**: Gold has strong support around 760. Long - term bullish logic remains unchanged, and investors can consider long - term positions [4]. Silver - **Core View**: Strong upward movement [1]. - **Main Logic**: Trump's 30% tariff on Mexico affects the friction costs of major silver mines. The long - term price is influenced by base metals and gold prices [1][3]. - **Price Range**: [9000 - 9375] [1]. - **Strategy**: With support at 9000, adopt a long - position approach [4]. Copper - **Core View**: Oscillation in the short - term, long - term bullish [1]. - **Main Logic**: The impact of US copper import tariffs is diminishing. In the short - term, inventory increases may lead to price corrections, but the decline is limited. In the long - term, the global copper mine shortage persists [1][5][6]. - **Price Range**: Shanghai copper [77800, 79800], London copper [9600, 9800] dollars/ton [6]. - **Strategy**: After price corrections, consider long - positions on dips [6]. Zinc - **Core View**: Under pressure [1]. - **Main Logic**: In the short - term, zinc concentrate processing fees are recovering, and factors such as overseas steel anti - dumping and Trump's tariff uncertainties affect demand. In the long - term, supply increases while demand weakens [1][7][8]. - **Price Range**: Shanghai zinc [21800, 22400], London zinc [2680, 2780] dollars/ton [8]. - **Strategy**: Seize opportunities to short on rallies [8]. Aluminum - **Core View**: Rebound under pressure [1]. - **Main Logic**: The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains high, and the market is entering the off - season with inventory accumulation [1][9][10]. - **Price Range**: [20100 - 20800] [1]. - **Strategy**: Consider short - positions on rebounds, paying attention to inventory changes [10]. Nickel - **Core View**: Under pressure [1]. - **Main Logic**: Overseas nickel ore prices are weakening, downstream stainless steel production cuts lead to inventory reduction, but there is still pressure in the off - season, and pure nickel inventory is accumulating again [1][11]. - **Price Range**: [118000 - 122000] [1]. - **Strategy**: Consider short - positions on rebounds, paying attention to stainless steel production cuts [11]. Lead - **Core View**: Rebound under pressure [1]. - **Main Logic**: Supply increases after smelter maintenance, and downstream consumption is insufficient, leading to inventory accumulation [1]. - **Price Range**: [16800 - 17300] [1]. Tin - **Core View**: Rebound under pressure [1]. - **Main Logic**: Myanmar's tin ore supply has not recovered, and consumption has entered the off - season with inventory accumulation [1]. - **Price Range**: [260000 - 269000] [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Core View**: Rebound under pressure [1]. - **Main Logic**: Cost support exists, but fundamental improvement is lacking, and high inventory restricts upward movement [1]. - **Price Range**: [8240 - 8550] [1]. Polysilicon - **Core View**: High - level oscillation [1]. - **Main Logic**: Policy expectations and positive price feedback in the industrial chain support the price, but high prices and margin increases lead to high volatility [1]. - **Price Range**: [40000 - 42500] [1]. Lithium Carbonate - **Core View**: Under pressure [1]. - **Main Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction remains unsolved, and inventory is at a record high. Although downstream demand shows some growth, it is hard to verify its strength [1][12]. - **Price Range**: [63800 - 64500] [1][13]. - **Strategy**: Short - term high - level oscillation, pay attention to the 65,000 resistance [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to trade in a high - level range. The dual - easing policy and central bank gold purchases support the price, with a long - term bullish outlook due to uncertainties [1][2][3]. - Silver is likely to experience a strong - level oscillation. The dual - easing environment supports silver demand, but it is significantly influenced by the prices of base metals and gold [1]. - Copper is predicted to oscillate. In the short term, there may be a correction due to demand verification risks, but in the long run, it is still favored as a strategic resource [1][5][6]. - Zinc is expected to rebound. In the short term, it will test the previous high, but in the long term, supply exceeds demand, presenting short - selling opportunities [1][7][8]. - Lead is under pressure. Supply increases in July, and weak downstream consumption leads to inventory accumulation and price rebound pressure [1]. - Tin is facing pressure on its rebound. Supply has not fully recovered, but consumption has entered the off - season, and inventory has been accumulating [1]. - Aluminum is expected to rebound and then decline. The off - season is approaching, and demand is weakening, while production capacity remains high [1][9][10]. - Nickel is under pressure on its rebound. Inventory pressure persists, and downstream consumption is in the off - season [1][11][12]. - Industrial silicon is expected to rebound. Cost support exists, but high inventory restricts the upward space [1]. - Polysilicon is likely to trade in a high - level range. Policy expectations and positive price feedback in the industrial chain support its strength, but prices are high and volatile [1]. - Lithium carbonate is under pressure. The supply - demand contradiction remains unresolved, and it will mainly trade in a range, with attention on the 65,000 resistance [1][13][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Market Review**: Tariff risks have temporarily subsided. Monetary easing and central bank gold purchases support the price [2]. - **Basic Logic**: Most Fed officials support interest rate cuts. Russia has increased its gold holdings, and the long - term trend of dual - easing and global order reshaping supports the long - term bullish view of gold [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold may experience short - term adjustments, but the US dollar is in a medium - term weak trend. Gold has strong support around 760, and long - term investment opportunities can be considered [4]. Silver - **Market Review**: Not explicitly stated, but it is influenced by the dual - easing environment and the prices of other metals [1]. - **Basic Logic**: The dual - easing policy supports silver demand, and high tariffs increase friction costs for some products [1]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the pressure at the previous high and control positions, with a price range of [8800 - 9075] [1]. Copper - **Market Review**: US copper has been trading in a high - level range, while LME copper and SHFE copper have stopped falling and rebounded [5]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of copper concentrates remains tight, and electrolytic copper production has increased. Global visible inventory is at a low level, but high prices suppress demand, and terminal consumption has entered the off - season [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, beware of demand verification risks, but expect limited downside. Buy on dips after corrections. In the long term, be optimistic about copper due to the tight global copper mine supply [6]. Zinc - **Market Review**: SHFE zinc has oscillated and rebounded, testing the previous high [7]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of zinc mines is abundant, and processing fees are rebounding. Domestic inventory has slightly increased, and downstream galvanizing enterprises' performance is lower than in previous years [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, zinc may test the previous high due to various factors, but in the long term, supply exceeds demand. Look for short - selling opportunities, with a price range of [22000 - 22600] for SHFE zinc and [2700 - 2800] for LME zinc [8]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices have rebounded under pressure, and alumina has rebounded and then declined [9]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, production capacity remains high, and demand is weakening in the off - season. For alumina, overseas bauxite imports are high, and short - term supply is tight due to some enterprise maintenance [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short - selling opportunities for SHFE aluminum on rebounds, paying attention to inventory changes. Alumina is expected to trade in a low - level range [10]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices have rebounded and then declined, and stainless steel has also declined [11]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas nickel ore prices are weakening, and domestic production may decline. Nickel supply - demand improvement is limited, and inventory is accumulating. Stainless steel production cuts have eased inventory pressure, but consumption is still weak in the off - season [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short - selling opportunities for nickel and stainless steel on rebounds, paying attention to stainless steel production cut trends, with a price range of [118000 - 122000] for nickel [12]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2509 has slightly reduced positions and traded weakly in a range [13]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction remains unresolved, and inventory is at a new high. Downstream demand shows an off - season non - weak phenomenon, but supply changes are in line with expectations [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Trade in a high - level range in the short term, paying attention to the 65,000 resistance, with a price range of [63600 - 64600] [14].

金十数据7月11日讯，三菱日联银行分析师在一份研究报告中表示，在市场权衡关税风险以及货币宽松 前景不明朗的综合博弈下，贵金属价格走高。特朗普的全面关税提案，包括对加拿大、巴西和铜进口征 收新税，在8月1日生效日之前增加了市场的不确定性，这提振了黄金的避险吸引力。不过，与此同时， 美联储对降息前景发出矛盾信号，削弱了无息黄金的吸引力。今年迄今，由于地缘政治紧张局势、央行 购买和持续的经济担忧，黄金已上涨近27%。 三菱日联：市场消化最新关税提案推动金价上涨 ...

1. Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: July 10, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Research Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 3. Core Views - In July, short - term treasury bond varieties may be more certain. Considering the current economic situation, with the marginal slowdown but still resilient support from export - grabbing, slow progress but no further escalation of conflicts in Sino - US tariff negotiations, and the US further delaying the suspension period of reciprocal tariffs with other countries, the market's risk - aversion sentiment and short - term policy demand are reduced. It is expected that the third quarter will be a policy observation period. The resurgence of monetary easing may occur in October after the domestic economic recovery situation is clear, the tariff negotiation results are clear, and the Fed cuts interest rates. However, short - term capital interest rates are only maintaining a loose state and cannot further decline, making it difficult to open up the downward space for long - term interest rates. Short - term varieties may be more resilient, and the 2 - year and 5 - year varieties may perform better, considering the expected loose policy of the central bank restarting treasury bond trading [11][12] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: The impact of the year - on - year increase in CPI was limited. There was an obvious stock - bond seesaw effect. The A - share market weakened at the end of the session, and the bond market recovered and rose [8] - **Interest Rate Bonds**: The yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds across all maturities increased slightly. As of 16:30 in the afternoon, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 was reported at 1.643%, remaining unchanged [9] - **Funding Market**: The funding was loose, and there was a net withdrawal in the open market. There were 98.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities today, and the central bank conducted 75.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 23 billion yuan. Short - term inter - bank funding interest rates rebounded slightly across the board. The weighted overnight interest rate of inter - bank deposits fluctuated narrowly around 1.32%, the 7 - day interest rate rebounded 1.3bp to around 1.47%, and medium - and long - term funds remained loose. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit interest rate fluctuated little around 1.6% [10] 4.2 Industry News - **Tariff News**: US President Trump announced on social media that tariffs would start on August 1, 2025, and might send a tax letter to the EU in the next two days. He also planned to impose tariffs on specific industries such as pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and metals, with a 50% tariff on copper and up to 200% on pharmaceuticals. The US Commerce Secretary said that the copper tariff would be in place in late July or on August 1, and the investigation into the pharmaceutical and semiconductor sectors would be completed by the end of the month. Affected by this news, New York copper futures soared, with the increase reaching 17% at one point, reaching $5.89 per pound. Trump has issued tariff rate threats to 14 countries, with different tariff rates for each country, and these tariffs will take effect on August 1. Previously, the White House postponed the tariff negotiation deadline to August 1 [13] - **Diplomatic Response**: Regarding Trump's threat to impose new tariffs on BRICS countries, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the BRICS mechanism is an important platform for cooperation among emerging markets and developing countries, advocating openness, inclusiveness, and win - win cooperation, and not engaging in camp confrontation or targeting any country. China has repeatedly stated its position on tariff increases, believing that trade wars and tariff wars have no winners, and protectionism has no future [14] - **Hong Kong Policy**: The "Stablecoin Ordinance" in Hong Kong will take effect in August. The Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury, Xu Zhengyu, said that the Hong Kong Monetary Authority is currently consulting the market on the implementation guidelines, which will be announced this month, covering anti - money laundering and other related requirements. The number of stablecoin licenses to be issued will be in single digits, and the goal is to issue licenses within this year [14] - **Shipping Industry**: The Shanghai International Shipping Research Center released the China Shipping Prosperity Report for the second quarter of 2025. In the second quarter of 2025, the China Shipping Prosperity Index was 120.81 points, up 14.77 points from the previous quarter, rising to the relatively prosperous range; the China Shipping Confidence Index was 123.22 points, up 12.89 points from the previous quarter, rising from the relatively prosperous range to the relatively prosperous range [14] 4.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report provides trading data for various treasury bond futures contracts on July 9, including pre - settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest [6] - **Money Market**: The report mentions the term structure change and trend of SHIBOR, as well as the change in the weighted inter - bank pledged repurchase interest rate and the inter - bank deposit pledged repurchase interest rate [29][33] - **Derivatives Market**: The report shows the Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) and the FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) [35]

Report Summary 1. Core View - In June, the CPI data showed mixed trends, with the year - on - year change turning from decline to increase and the month - on - month decline narrowing. The core CPI year - on - year increase continued to expand, mainly supported by the rising gold price. The PPI year - on - year decline widened, indicating weak overall price data. Due to insufficient domestic demand and high external demand uncertainty, China still needs a loose monetary environment. The bond market is strengthening, and in July, it is expected to have a short - to - long - term rally, with long - term bonds likely to break through key levels [1][4]. 2. CPI Analysis 2.1 Core CPI - In June, the core CPI year - on - year increased by 0.7%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and remained flat month - on - month. The "other goods and services" sub - item grew significantly, with a year - on - year increase of 8.1% in June, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. This was mainly supported by the 41.3% year - on - year increase in domestic gold futures prices in June. After excluding this sub - item, the CPI and core CPI in June were - 0.1% and + 0.3% year - on - year respectively, showing a weak overall price level [1][9]. 2.2 Food CPI - In June, the food CPI year - on - year decline narrowed, but the month - on - month decline widened. It decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, a narrowing of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and decreased by 0.4% month - on - month, an expansion of 0.2 percentage points. Fresh fruit prices were the main drag, with a 3.3% month - on - month decline, affecting the CPI to drop by about 0.07 percentage points. Fresh vegetable prices rose by 0.7% month - on - month due to high - temperature and rainy weather [1]. 2.3 Non - food CPI - In June, the non - food CPI year - on - year changed from flat to an increase of 0.1%, and the month - on - month change turned from decline to flat. The rise in international oil prices was the main factor. The year - on - year decline of energy prices narrowed by 1.0 percentage points, and the downward pull on CPI year - on - year decreased by about 0.08 percentage points compared to the previous month. Gasoline prices rose by 0.4% month - on - month, driving energy prices to turn from a 1.7% year - on - year decline to a 0.1% increase [2]. 3. PPI Analysis 3.1 Production Materials PPI - In June, the production materials PPI year - on - year decline widened, and the month - on - month decline remained the same. It decreased by 4.4% year - on - year, an expansion of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and decreased by 0.6% month - on - month. This was mainly affected by the decline in industrial raw material prices and the increase in green power. Most domestic manufacturing raw material prices declined, and the prices of some industries such as ferrous metals and non - metallic minerals decreased due to weather and other factors. Green power increase also led to a decrease in power generation costs and related industry prices [3]. 3.2 Living Materials PPI - In June, the living materials PPI decreased by 1.4% year - on - year. Food prices decreased by 2.0% year - on - year, with the decline expanding by 0.6 percentage points. Durable consumer goods decreased by 2.7% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points. Clothing and general daily necessities prices increased by 0.1% and 0.8% year - on - year respectively, with the increase expanding by 0.1% and 0.2% respectively, possibly related to consumption - boosting policies [3]. 4. Market Outlook - The bond market is in a strengthening process. With the continuous loosening of funds, short - term interest rates are expected to decline more significantly in July. After the short - term decline, the yield curve will steepen, opening up space for long - term interest rates. The market is expected to have a short - to - long - term rally in July, and long - term bonds are likely to break through key levels. It is recommended to maintain a relatively high duration level, and a barbell - shaped portfolio allocation is relatively more advantageous. The report believes that the 10 - year Treasury bond yield is expected to fall to the 1.4% - 1.5% level [4][25].

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 高位震荡 | 短期关税风险影响减少，市场风险偏好回升。中长期看美国财政扩张既成事实， 多国财政继续扩大，多国央行继续购买黄金，中长期货币宽松、不确定性仍然 | | | | 较多，长期全球秩序尚在重塑，黄金战略配置。【765-785】 | | 白银 | 强势震荡 | 双宽松政策对白银需求有支撑。白银盘面 8700 附近支撑较强，受基本金属和黄 | | | | 金价格情绪影响较大，高位区间思路操作，做好仓位控制。【8800-9075】 | | 铜 | 多单持有 | 特朗普称即将对铜进口加征 50%关税，美铜爆拉 10%创历史新高，建议铜多单继续 | | | | 持有，中长期我们对铜依旧看好。沪铜关注区间【79000，83000】 | | 锌 | 震荡 | 特朗普关税施压，宏观情绪回落，基本面锌精矿加工费修复，国内锌库存小幅 累库，国内消费淡季，锌窄幅震荡，长期看，锌供增需弱，把握逢高空机会。 | | | | 沪锌关注区间【21800，22500】 | | 铅 | 反弹承压 | 原生铅冶炼厂检修后 ...

＃summary＃ 行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 9 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 | | 表1：国债期货7月8日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2509 | 121.190 | 121.070 | 120.920 | 120.860 | -0.270 | -0.22 | ...

Macro Overview - In the first five months of 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, with total revenue increasing by 2.7% [7][12] - The monetary policy is expected to remain "moderately loose," with potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions anticipated in the second half of the year [5][4] - The focus of structural monetary policy tools will be on technology, consumption, foreign trade, real estate, and the stock market [5][4] Industrial Profit Analysis - The profit margin for industrial enterprises recorded a cumulative 4.97% from January to May, showing a year-on-year decline of 0.22 percentage points [8] - The equipment manufacturing sector saw a profit increase of 7.2%, contributing 2.4 percentage points to the overall industrial profit growth [11] - The automotive manufacturing sector experienced a significant profit decline of 11.9% year-on-year, indicating challenges in the consumer goods manufacturing sector [12] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a positive outlook for the equity market, particularly in sectors related to new consumption and high-tech manufacturing, while maintaining a cautious stance on the bond market [13] - The anticipated decline in interest rates may provide a favorable environment for small-cap stocks, especially in the technology sector [18] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring policy continuity and the impact of international trade negotiations on domestic industries [12][13] Company-Specific Insights - Ying Shi Innovation, a leader in the panoramic camera market, is projected to achieve revenues of 5.57 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 65.3% from 2022 to 2024 [27] - The company holds a 67.2% market share in the global panoramic camera market, indicating strong competitive positioning [29] - The demand for smart imaging devices is diversifying, with applications in outdoor sports and vlogging, which are expected to drive growth in the sector [28]