2025.06. 15 本文字数：2881，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 杜川 在存款利率进入"1字头"时代的背景下，5月金融数据折射出资金流动的深刻变化。 央行数据显示，5月末人民币存款余额达316.96万亿元，同比增长8.1%，当月新增存款近2.2万亿 元，较去年同期多增5000亿元。其中，非银存款单月增加近1.2万亿元，创下近十年同期新高，成为 市场关注的焦点。 分析普遍认为，存款利率下调引发的"存款搬家"效应，是推动非银存款增长的原因之一。居民和企业 加速将资金向货币基金、现金管理类理财等收益相对更高的领域转移。这一趋势在银行理财规模数据 上得到有力印证——5月银行理财规模环比增长3400亿元，总量达31.6万亿元。 市场分析普遍认为，非银存款的显著变化与金融市场活跃度提升以及资金流向转变紧密相关。 5月，新一轮存款降息拉开帷幕，多家银行一年期定存利率跌破"1字头"。存款利率的大幅降低，使得 存款收益明显减少，促使资金寻求更高收益渠道，引发市场对于"存款搬家"现象的关注。 财信研究院副院长伍超明认为，存款利率下调、资本市场回暖支撑非银存款维持在偏高水平。 广发证券资深宏观分析师钟林楠也分析称 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant shift in the flow of funds from traditional bank deposits to higher-yielding financial products such as money market funds and cash management products, driven by declining deposit interest rates [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Data Overview - As of the end of May, the balance of RMB deposits reached 316.96 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.1%, with new deposits in May amounting to nearly 2.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 500 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [2]. - Non-bank deposits saw a substantial increase of 1.19 trillion yuan in May, marking the highest level for the same period in nearly a decade, with a year-on-year increase of 300 billion yuan [3]. - The total scale of bank wealth management products grew by 340 billion yuan month-on-month in May, reaching 31.6 trillion yuan, indicating a strong "deposit migration" effect [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The decline in deposit interest rates has led to a "deposit migration" phenomenon, where both residents and enterprises are moving their funds to higher-yielding financial products [4][6]. - The increase in non-bank deposits is closely linked to heightened activity in the financial markets and a shift in fund flows, as evidenced by the significant rise in bank wealth management products [4][6]. - The overall growth in deposits in May is attributed to multiple factors, including improved market expectations, enhanced economic vitality, and increased demand for "liquid funds" from enterprises and residents [6][7]. Group 3: Loan and Deposit Growth Discrepancies - In May, RMB loans increased by 620 billion yuan, which is a year-on-year decrease of 330 billion yuan, indicating a divergence in the growth rates of deposits and loans [9][10]. - The differences in monthly growth rates of loans and deposits are seen as a reflection of the diversification of financial institutions' assets and changes in financing structures [10][11]. - The overall stability in the growth rate of combined bank deposits and wealth management products remains around 8%, suggesting a balanced financial environment despite monthly fluctuations [10][11].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 06 15 年 月 日 2）社融结构：5 月单月新增社融 2.29 万亿，同比多增 2271 亿： A.对实体经济发放的人民币贷款增加 5960 亿，同比少增 2237 亿； B.新口径下企业债券融资净增加 1496 亿，同比多增 1211 亿，5 月公司债 发行利率在 4 月较低水平上进一步下行，企业发债意愿有所提高； C.表外融资方面，信托贷款净增加 173 亿，委托贷款净减少 167 亿，分别 同比少增 51 亿和同比多减 158 亿； D.政府债券净增加 1.46 万亿，同比多增 2367 亿，年内政府债券发行进度 明显加快，成为拉动社融增长的主要因素； E.未贴现银行汇票减少 1162 亿，同比少减 169 亿。 银行 本周聚焦—5 月社融数据：政府债支撑社融，新发放贷款利率保持不变 一、5 月社融数据 1、社融结构拆分 1）社融增速：2025 年 5 月新口径下社融增速 8.7%，较上月持平，剔除 政府债券后的社融增速 6.0%，较上月持平。 2、信贷、存款增长情况 1）贷款：5 月新增人民币贷款 6200 亿元，同比少增 3300 ...

Group 1 - The National Student Financial Aid Management Center and the China Development Bank held a launch meeting for the 2025 National Source Credit Student Loan program, focusing on implementing loan policies, accurately identifying needy students, and preventing illegal campus loans [1] - The acceptance of the 2025 Source Credit Student Loan will begin in mid-July, with students able to apply through the China Development Bank's online system or mobile app [1] - The China Development Bank aims to ensure sufficient loan funding to meet the needs of all economically disadvantaged students and will optimize the loan issuance process by moving from a centralized release in November to an earlier phased release [1] Group 2 - The National Student Loan program is a key part of China's student financial aid policy, promoting educational and social equity for economically disadvantaged students [2] - A reduction of 0.1 percentage points in the five-year loan market quoted interest rate (LPR) in May will lead to a corresponding decrease in the interest rate for the Source Credit Student Loan if the LPR remains unchanged [2] - The China Development Bank has issued a total of 456.9 billion yuan in student loans, benefiting 22.25 million economically disadvantaged students across 29 provinces and all recognized higher education institutions [2]

Group 1: Monetary Supply and Credit Conditions - In May, the broad money supply (M2) increased by 7.9% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [2][3] - The narrow money supply (M1) grew by 2.3% year-on-year, with an increase of 0.8 percentage points compared to the end of the previous month [3] - New RMB loans in May amounted to 620 billion yuan, a decrease of 330 billion yuan year-on-year, while the social financing scale increased by 22.894 billion yuan, up by 2.271 billion yuan year-on-year [2][10] Group 2: Economic Activity and Investment - The increase in M1 indicates a significant acceleration in "active money," suggesting a recovery in investment and consumption activities [3][5] - The government bond issuance has accelerated, which is the primary driver for the rapid growth of social financing scale [11] - The total social financing scale at the end of May was 426.16 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.7% [10] Group 3: Loan Dynamics and Sector Performance - Corporate loans increased by 530 billion yuan in May, but this was a decrease of 210 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating a continued impact from local government debt replacement [7][9] - Retail loans showed signs of improvement, although overall demand remains weak, with a year-on-year decrease of 217 billion yuan in residential loans [9] - The issuance of special refinancing bonds has been significant, with over 1.6 trillion yuan issued this year to support debt replacement [7][11]

Group 1 - In May, the social financing scale increased by 2.29 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 224.7 billion yuan, and new RMB loans amounted to 620 billion yuan [1] - The broad money supply (M2) grew by 7.9% year-on-year, which is 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year, indicating a strong financial growth relative to nominal economic growth [1] - The narrow money supply (M1) increased by 2.3% year-on-year, reflecting a significant acceleration in the growth of "liquid money," which is expected to boost market confidence and economic activities [1] Group 2 - The net financing of government bonds accelerated in May, reaching 1.46 trillion yuan, while local governments issued 443.2 billion yuan in new special bonds, marking a new high for the year [2] - Corporate bond net financing exceeded 140 billion yuan in May, with a downward trend in financing costs, as the average yield on 5-year AAA corporate bonds fell to 1.97% [2] - Despite a lower scale of new RMB loans compared to the same period last year, the RMB loan balance grew by 7.1% year-on-year, indicating stable loan growth [2] Group 3 - In May, nearly 530 billion yuan in new RMB loans were issued to enterprises, supported by a recent interest rate cut that boosted loan demand [3] - The residential sector saw an increase of nearly 54 billion yuan in new RMB loans, reflecting a recovery in the local real estate market [3] - The increased financing through government and corporate bonds is expected to substitute for bank loans, as local governments prefer using special bonds for project funding [3]

Core Viewpoint - The financial data for May indicates a stable growth in total financing, supporting the real economy, with expectations for continued steady growth in financial totals in the near future [1][8]. Group 1: Financial Data Overview - As of the end of May, the total social financing stock was 426.16 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7% [1]. - The broad money (M2) balance was 325.78 trillion yuan, growing by 7.9% year-on-year [1]. - The narrow money (M1) balance reached 108.91 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.3% [1]. - The balance of RMB loans stood at 266.32 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.1% [1]. Group 2: Drivers of Financing Growth - In the first five months of the year, the cumulative increase in social financing was 18.63 trillion yuan, which is 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2]. - Government bonds were identified as the primary driver of the rapid growth in social financing, with a significant increase in net financing in the first quarter [2]. - The issuance of special refinancing bonds aimed at replacing hidden local government debts has been notably high, contributing to the increase in government bond financing [2][3]. Group 3: Loan Demand and Economic Activity - In the first five months, RMB loans increased by 10.68 trillion yuan, with 620 billion yuan added in May alone [4]. - The recent interest rate cuts have positively influenced loan demand, with a notable increase in corporate borrowing [4]. - The growth in personal loans in May, amounting to 540 billion yuan, indicates a recovery in economic activity, supported by a rebound in the real estate market and consumer spending [4][5]. Group 4: Monetary Supply and Economic Outlook - The growth rate of "active money" (M1) accelerated significantly, reflecting improved market confidence and a recovery in investment and consumption activities [7]. - M2 growth remained stable at 7.9%, with expectations for continued steady growth in financial totals [8]. - The ongoing proactive fiscal policies are expected to further support the recovery of effective demand in the real economy [8].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China reported that as of the end of May, the broad money supply (M2) reached 325.78 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.9% [1] - The narrow money supply (M1) stood at 108.91 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.3% [1] - In the first five months of the year, a net cash injection of 306.4 billion yuan was recorded [1] Group 2 - As of the end of May, the balance of RMB loans was 266.32 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.1% [1] - In the first five months, RMB loans increased by 1.068 trillion yuan, with household loans rising by 57.24 billion yuan [1] - Corporate loans increased by 980 billion yuan, while non-bank financial institution loans rose by 13.57 billion yuan [1] Group 3 - The chief economist of China Minsheng Bank noted that the M2 growth rate remained stable while M1 growth accelerated, indicating a significant increase in "liquid money" [1] - A package of financial support measures from the central bank has effectively boosted market confidence, leading to signs of recovery in investment and consumption activities [1] - The ongoing debt resolution process and the allocation of fiscal funds have provided support for related enterprises' demand for current deposits [1] Group 4 - The credit issuance in May showed similarities to the beginning of the season, with effective financing demand not yet significantly improving amid external uncertainties [2] - A package of financial support policies was introduced on May 7, including interest rate cuts and the optimization of structural monetary policy tools, which are beneficial for stabilizing credit expansion [2] - Despite the influence of debt replacement effects, the loan growth rate in May remained around 8% when excluding the impact of local debt replacement [2]

作者 | 第一财经 安卓 以非法手段进行金融活动，不仅损害他人财产权益，还严重扰乱金融秩序。 6月13日，广州市中级人民法院发布了两件依法惩治非法金融活动的典型案例，提醒公众提高风险防 范意识和识别能力，远离金融诈骗陷阱，守护"钱袋子"的安全。 在"以不具备合法手续的公寓项目非法集资"的案情中，被告人张某清以其实际控制的某公司名义承 租某大厦部分楼层。随后，张某清在不具备吸收公众存款资格且未获得改建公寓的合法手续情况下， 与其他两名被告人合谋，通过打造复式公寓样板间、拨打电话、发宣传资料等方式公开宣传上址项 目，并采用与投资人签订租赁及合作经营合同等方式出售上址公寓使用权，承诺售后包租、保证固定 收益的方式，吸引社会公众参与投资，造成112名投资人实际损失2750余万元。 广州市白云区人民法院生效判决认为，被告人张某清等人结伙非法吸收公众存款，扰乱金融秩序，数 额巨大，其行为均已构成非法吸收公众存款罪，判处张某清等三人有期徒刑八年至四年不等，并处罚 金四十万元至二十五万元不等，并追缴张某清等人的违法所得发还各集资参与人。 随着我国城市化进程的加快，公寓项目逐渐吸引公众的关注和投资。公寓项目主要有选择自住或委托 ...

宏 观 研 究 降息当月为何贷款偏少？ 投资要点： 宏 观 点 评 贷款低基数下再度大幅少增，降息稳地产预期效果尚需观察，严控隐 债对应企业中长贷显著少增。5 月新增贷款 6200 亿，低基数下再度同比再 度大幅少增 3300 亿，呈现以下结构性特征：1）5 月降息对居民中长贷形 成小幅拉动，当月新增 746 亿，同比小幅多增 232 亿；但居民短贷再度净 减少 208 亿，同比多减 451 亿，综合来看，5 月居民户贷款同比少增 217 亿，当前房地产市场仍处于持续探底过程中，降息稳定预期效果尚需持续 观察。2）5 月与基建投资关联度较高的企业中长贷新增 3300 亿，低基数 下同比少增的幅度扩大至 1700 亿，年初至今延续降温趋势，凸显存量隐债 稳定置换的过程中，严控新增隐债的要求仍可能持续压制传统基建投融资 增速。3）5 月短期贷款、票据融资两项合计同比少增 546 亿，与 4 月降温 幅度接近，显示关税进入拉锯阶段，超预期冲击导致的企业短期融资行为 趋于缓和。5 月贷款余额同比小幅回落 0.1 个百分点至 7.1%。 政府债务持续扩张，低利率提升企业债券融资活跃度，共同推动社融 再度同比多增。5 月 ...