美股芯片巨头突遭"空袭"。 值得注意的是，针对美股市场后市，多家华尔街机构发出了悲观展望。其中，摩根大通策略师警告称， 美股最近的涨势可能因投资者获利了结而陷入停滞。华尔街长期多头、投资咨询公司Yardeni Research 建议，现在应低配美股"科技七巨头"，预测其未来盈利增长趋势将发生变化。 芯片巨头大跳水 美东时间12月9日，美股开盘后，迈威尔科技（Marvell Technology）股价直线跳水，盘中一度暴跌超 10%，随后跌幅有所收窄，最终收跌6.99%，总市值报780.25亿美元（约合人民币5517亿元）。 隔夜美股市场，三大指数集体跳水，全线收跌，其中美国芯片巨头迈威尔科技股价盘中一度暴跌超 10%。消息面上，Benchmark分析师 Cody Acree 宣布将其股票评级从"买入"下调至"持有"，并表示，"高 度确信"迈威尔科技在亚马逊AI芯片的设计业务上输给了竞争对手。 消息面上，Benchmark分析师 Cody Acree 宣布将迈威尔科技的股票评级从"买入"下调至"持有"，并取消 了该公司对该股票的目标价格。这家投资公司表示，他们"高度确信"迈威尔科技在亚马逊AI芯片的设计 业务上 ...

Market Overview - The market is currently experiencing a bidding war between Paramount and Netflix for Warner Brothers, which is influencing trading dynamics [1] - Anticipation is building for the upcoming FOMC meeting, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut, contributing to a bullish sentiment in small-cap stocks [3][4] - Economic data releases, including jobs data from Jolt and ADP, are expected to impact market movements this week [5] Company-Specific Developments - Microsoft is reportedly in talks with Broadcom to switch chip suppliers, which has negatively impacted Marll's stock, causing a decline of approximately 9% [10][11] - Marll's reliance on a limited number of large customers makes it vulnerable to revenue impacts from losing clients like Microsoft [10][12] - Oracle's upcoming earnings report is highly anticipated, with analysts concerned about the company's debt levels and the potential impact of AI market dynamics on its stock [14][15][18] Commodity Insights - China's trade surplus has reached a record of over $1 trillion, indicating a normalization in trade dynamics between the U.S. and China [19] - Copper prices are experiencing significant fluctuations, with the London Metals Exchange contract hitting an all-time high, while U.S. contracts remain at a discount [21] - Natural gas is facing a pullback after a recent surge, with significant trading activity observed in December and January contracts [24][25]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The current macroeconomic environment in the U.S. shows signs of divergence, with the services PMI expanding while the manufacturing PMI contracts, indicating an unclear economic outlook that may increase stock market volatility [1][3][4] - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to be less affected by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations, as the market has already priced in this information [1][5] Key Points and Arguments - **Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Cuts**: The nature of the Fed's interest rate cuts will significantly impact the U.S. stock market. A dovish cut may raise recession concerns, while a hawkish cut could lead to adjustments in the expected number of cuts for 2026, increasing market volatility [2][9] - **Hong Kong Stock Market Outlook**: The first quarter of 2026 is expected to perform well due to policy effects and a rebound in EPS. Local real estate and cyclical stocks are anticipated to contribute positively to EPS, although overall market operation remains challenging due to incomplete capital allocation and ongoing overseas risks [1][6] - **Employment Data**: Mixed signals are present in employment data, with a slowdown in hiring but a decrease in initial jobless claims, indicating resilience in the job market [4] - **Yen's Impact on Global Markets**: The yen is expected to appreciate slightly around the December 19 interest rate hike, which may trigger unwinding of yen carry trades, impacting global financial markets, particularly U.S. and Hong Kong stocks [7][11] - **Dollar Exchange Rate**: The dollar is projected to experience a volatile trend until mid-2026, with no significant factors to drive a strong appreciation or depreciation [10] - **Global Asset Allocation**: Both U.S. and Hong Kong stocks are expected to face volatility in the remaining part of the year. Attention should be paid to the December 19 interest rate hike and its potential effects on market risk appetite [11] Additional Important Insights - **AI Bubble and Monetary Policy**: The AI bubble is closely linked to the monetary policy cycle. A potential burst of the AI bubble next year, combined with the end of the monetary policy cycle, could exacerbate market volatility [12][13] - **Investor Sentiment**: Current investor sentiment remains neutral, with a cautious approach towards capital allocation in the Hong Kong market, particularly in AI technology stocks, unless new catalysts emerge [5][6]

来源：华盛证券 华盛资讯12月8日讯，美股自11月中旬"AI泡沫"担忧以来持续反弹，纳指、标普再度冲刺新高之际，美联 储将于本周北京时间周四凌晨3点公布利率决议，主席鲍威尔将在2点30分召开新闻发布会。 数据显示，12月往往是美股表现强劲的月份，这场恰逢年末的利率决议，被全球市场视为触发"圣诞老人 行情"的关键因素，投资者关注鲍威尔、哈塞特两位关键联储人物的最新发言。 标普500指数再度逼近历史高位 宏观周来袭，华尔街交易员普遍预期本周美联储将降息25基点，"圣诞老人行情"能否如期？哪些降息交易 值得投资者提前关注？一文带你看懂。 降息25基点板上钉钉！鲍威尔VS哈塞特定调美联储"鸽派"or"鹰派" 编者按：美股再冲新高之际，市场押注本周降息25基点板上钉钉，这项关键数据将暗示"圣诞行情"能否如 期而至。投资者如何抢跑布局？ 鲍威尔VS哈塞特！这项关键数据暗示"圣诞老人行情"能否如期而至 目前美联储再次降息几乎已成定局，市场一方面关注，鲍威尔讲话将如何表述下个月进一步宽松的前景， 另一方面则关注"影子美联储主席"哈塞特的最新观点。 根据以往鲍威尔习惯而言，华尔街预期其将再次上演"鹰派降息"发言，意味着鲍威尔在 ...

Group 1: US Macro Strategy - The US job market shows marginal signs of recovery, with initial jobless claims unexpectedly declining to 191,000, significantly below seasonal levels, while continuing claims fell to 1.939 million, indicating a peak and subsequent decline in trends [2] - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.3% last week, reflecting a calmer market ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting, with expectations that the Fed will gradually lower the federal funds rate to a range of 3.0%-3.5% over the next year [2] - Short-term market support is driven by strong earnings and loose monetary policy, while mid-term concerns include high valuations and AI monetization pressures [2] Group 2: US Treasury Bonds - Short-term interest rates are expected to fluctuate around 4.1%, while long-term expectations remain pessimistic regarding the job market, likely leading to a rise in unemployment and a downward shift in Treasury yields [3] - Investors are advised to maintain positions in 2-5 year Treasury bonds, while long-term bonds should be considered only after a rebound in rates [3] Group 3: Currency and Gold - The US dollar faces downward pressure due to potential increases in unemployment and expectations of faster rate cuts if Hassett is nominated as Fed Chair, although the dollar's decline is expected to be limited within the 96-101 range [3] - The Chinese yuan is anticipated to appreciate, supported by narrowing interest rate differentials and increased market settlement intentions [3] - Gold is currently in a consolidation phase but is expected to maintain an upward trend in the medium to long term, supported by the resumption of the Fed's rate-cutting cycle and ongoing central bank gold purchases [4] Group 4: China Macro Strategy - Domestic demand is under pressure, with new home sales in 30 major cities down 34.2% year-on-year, and average prices in 33 cities falling by 17.2% year-to-date [6] - External demand remains resilient, with cargo throughput increasing by 8.4% week-on-week, while container throughput slightly declined by 0.3% [6] - The People's Bank of China is expected to maintain a stable liquidity environment through various monetary policy tools, including reverse repos and MLF [7] Group 5: A-shares and Hong Kong Market - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.37% and the ChiNext Index by 1.86%, driven by improved domestic policy expectations and a recovery in overseas markets [9] - The outlook for A-shares remains positive, with liquidity being a key driver, despite current economic data showing weakness [9] - The Hong Kong market is expected to benefit from liquidity easing and profit improvements, with a high probability of rebound in the Hang Seng Index and technology sector [10]

但上周美股已经有不错的反弹，标普500距离创新高也就2-3个点，市场的风险偏好已经有明显的回升，过两天美联储的降息落地后，需要观察下美联储会 放出什么信号，如果是鸽派信号，那可能市场会继续向上。 距离今年结束还有3个星期，从港股互联网股业绩后来看，互联网公司都能交出一份好的业绩，互联网股的龙头公司还是便宜的，只是在最近市场风险偏 好降低的情况下，市场没有多大的反应。 那对于目前的市场，尤其是对流动性敏感的科技股而言，要想有所突破，要么靠AI产业趋势有新的突破，要么需要流动性的明显改善，美股和港A都是如 此。因此，在AI泡沫担忧还争论不断没有定论的环境下，流动性的变化无疑成为短期影响市场的一个重要变量。 目前市场的预期里，预计美联储表态会是偏鸽派的，有利于市场的温和上涨。 所以，港股作为对风险偏好敏感的市场，若后天美联储的发言表态不强硬，那前段时间调整的跌幅有望迎来修复。而港股反弹时，还是恒生科技指数ETF （513180），恒生互联网ETF（513330）的确定性要更高。 市场流动性的新变化 自从10月底以来，市场投资者的风险偏好降低，全球风险资产承压，标普/纳指/恒科从高点的最大跌幅分别达5.1%/7.3% ...

Market Outlook - The current state of the U.S. stock market is concerning, with a potential long-term bear market similar to 2000 expected in the coming years [4][22] - The dominance of passive investment (over 50%) in the market may lead to a scenario where the entire market declines simultaneously, making it difficult to protect oneself with long positions [5][22] Investment in AI and Comparisons to Historical Bubbles - The current AI investment frenzy is likened to the "data transmission bubble" of 2000, with both exhibiting a lag between capital expenditure and market peaks [6][35] - Companies like Palantir and Nvidia are viewed as beneficiaries of this bubble, despite not initially producing AI-specific products [32][34] Palantir's Valuation Concerns - Palantir's stock is currently valued at $200, but it is believed to be worth only $30 or lower, leading to a significant bearish bet on its future decline [6][30] - The company has created multiple billionaires despite having minimal actual profits, raising concerns about its financial structure and valuation [30][28] Google's Search Business and AI Threats - AI poses a significant threat to Google's core cash flow from its search business, which has historically operated at very low costs [39][40] - The high costs associated with AI search may limit profitability, as most users can access necessary services for free, with a small percentage willing to pay for advanced models [41] Critique of the Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve is criticized for not having made any beneficial contributions over its century-long existence, with a call for its functions to be transferred to the Treasury Department [3][46] - The current economic situation is viewed as unsustainable, with high interest payments and welfare obligations straining the fiscal landscape [42][46]

Core Insights - UBS reports that the global data center equipment market shows no signs of cooling, with current construction capacity reaching 25GW and operational capacity at approximately 105GW [1] - The industry is expected to grow by 25-30% by 2025, with strong momentum continuing into 2026 [1][4] - UBS raises mid-term growth expectations, forecasting a market growth rate of 20-25% in 2026, supported by low vacancy rates and strong construction data [1][4] Market Growth Projections - Following a projected 25-30% growth in 2025, the growth rate for 2026 is expected to remain high at 20-25%, with 15-20% growth anticipated in 2027 and 10-15% from 2028 to 2030 [4] - Vacancy rates in North America, Europe, and Asia-Pacific are at historical lows of 1.8%, 3.6%, and 5.8% respectively, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [4] Cooling Technology and Capital Expenditure - The cooling market is expected to perform exceptionally well, with a projected 20% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) by 2030, and liquid cooling technology leading with a 45% growth rate [7] - AI data centers are experiencing a structural change in construction costs, with costs per megawatt increasing by approximately 20% compared to traditional data centers, primarily due to upgrades in cooling and power infrastructure [8] AI Revenue and Market Dynamics - Annual recurring revenue (ARR) from major AI-native applications has reached $17 billion, accounting for 6-7% of the current SaaS market [10] - The adoption rate of generative AI (GenAI) is unprecedented, with companies reporting an average revenue growth of 3.6% and cost reductions of 5% over the past year [10] Technological Shifts - The transition to 800V direct current (DC) architecture is expected to reshape the competitive landscape, with widespread deployment anticipated by late 2028 to early 2029 [16] - Demand for medium voltage (MV) equipment is expected to remain stable, while low voltage (LV) AC equipment may face risks from higher voltage DC distribution [16]

按一下此處編輯母版標題樣式 文件名 产品及投资方案部 ｜2025年12月8日 每周投资策略 中信証券財富管理 (香港) CITIC Securities Wealth Management (HK) 投资策略 每周投资策略 上周环球 大类资产表现 (1) 美国市场焦点 预计美联储 本周再次降息 股票 "AI 泡沫"的中短期走向； Alphabet；亚马逊 ETF Invesco纳斯达克100 指数ETF (2) 澳大利亚市场焦点 通胀持续高企 令降息预期落空 股票 推荐原材料和红利板块； Northern Star； Woodside (3) 印度尼西亚 市场焦点 通胀缓解提供降息依据 股票 2026年谨慎乐观； 中亚银行 ；Telkom ETF VanEck印度尼西亚 指数ETF 资料来源：中信证券财富管理 (香港) 1 本周主要地区 经济数据公布日程 上周环球 股市表现 美国降息预期稳固，全球股市普遍向好 资料来源：彭博、中信证券财富管理 (香港) 注：截至2025年12月5日 3 上周环球 债市表现 美债收益率曲线熊市走陡 日本央行发表鹰派言论，日本国债遭抛售 | | | | | 上周环球债市表现 | ...

值得注意的是，AMD 在今年早些时候与 OpenAI 达成了一项重大合作协议，其中后者将部署 6 吉瓦（GW）级 AMD Instinct GPU，同时 AMD 允许 OpenAI 以每股 1 美分（现汇率约合 0.071 元人民币）的价格购买 1.6 亿股 AMD 股票，等于给了 OpenAI 约 10% 股份。 谈到英伟达等友商时，苏姿丰认为，她并不对英伟达的竞争报以担忧，甚至不担心谷歌、亚马逊等正在打造自家 芯片的互联网巨头，她对此解释道："真正让我夜不能寐的问题是：我们如何在创新上跑得更快"？ 不过她认为，AI 仍处于"婴儿期"，AMD 必须为未来准备好更多芯片。 当主持人问她，科技行业是否处于"AI 泡沫"时，苏姿丰回应道："从我的角度看，绝对不是。AI 行业未来需要来 自 AMD 等公司的海量芯片，现在外界对'泡沫'的担忧有些被夸大了"。 苏姿丰的这番话听起来非常大胆，符合她的个人风格。她从 2014 年出任 AMD CEO 以来，将公司市值从 20 亿美 元（IT之家注：现汇率约合 141.57 亿元人民币）提升至 3000 亿美元（现汇率约合 2.12 万亿元人民币），并推出 Zen 架构处理 ...