Group 1: Report Information - The reports cover multiple industries including polyolefin, methanol, crude oil, natural rubber, urea, benzene - styrene, glass - soda ash, PVC - caustic soda, and polyester产业链 on December 3, 2025 [1][5][9][10][12][13][14][15][16] Group 2: Industry Price and Spread Changes Polyolefin - Futures prices of L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 increased on December 2 compared to December 1, with L2601 rising 0.41% to 6831 yuan/ton and PP2601 rising 0.20% to 6410 yuan/ton [2] - Price differences such as L15, LP01, etc. also had corresponding changes, with L15 rising 8.33% [2] Methanol - MA2601 decreased 0.19% to 2132 yuan/ton on December 2 compared to December 1, while MA2605 remained unchanged [5] - Methanol enterprise inventory increased 4.19% to 37.3712%, and methanol port inventory decreased 7.83% to 136.4 million tons [5] Crude Oil - Brent decreased 1.14% to 62.45 dollars/barrel, and WTI decreased 1.15% to 58.64 dollars/barrel on December 2 compared to December 1 [9] Natural Rubber - Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai increased 0.34% to 14850 yuan/ton on December 2 compared to December 1 [10] - The basis of whole latex decreased 13.33% to - 510 yuan/ton [10] Urea - Futures prices of different contracts had slight increases or decreases, with the 01 contract increasing 0.72% to 1687 yuan/ton [12] - The difference between the 01 and 05 contracts changed, with an increase of 4 in the difference [12] Benzene - Styrene - Brent crude oil (January) decreased 1.1% to 62.45 dollars/barrel on December 2 compared to December 1, and styrene in East China increased 0.9% to 6680 yuan/ton [13] Glass - Soda Ash - Glass in North China decreased 0.92% to 1080 yuan/ton, and soda ash in North China remained unchanged at 1300 yuan/ton [14] PVC - Caustic Soda - East China calcium carbide - based PVC increased 0.4% to 4510 yuan/ton on December 2 compared to December 1 [15] Polyester Industry Chain - Brent crude oil (February) decreased 1.1% to 62.45 dollars/barrel, and POY150/48 price increased 0.4% to 6485 yuan/ton on December 2 compared to December 1 [16] Group 3: Industry Supply and Demand and Inventory Polyolefin - Polypropylene supply maintenance due to high - level overhauls is expected to recover, and inventory reduction is accelerating but still higher than previous years; polyethylene supply is increasing, and although upstream inventory is decreasing, it is still higher year - on - year [2] Methanol - Inland methanol supply increased with device restarts, and coal - and gas - based profits were weak; port imports are expected to decline significantly in Q1 due to Iranian gas restrictions [5][6] Crude Oil - Under the pressure of OPEC+ continuous production increase and the record - high US crude oil production, the crude oil supply - demand pattern is weak, and inventories of crude oil and refined oil increased according to API data [9] Natural Rubber - Supply is expected to increase during the seasonal peak production period, and inventory is accumulating, while demand from semi - steel and full - steel tire markets is weak [10] Urea - Domestic urea daily production increased 1.19% to 20.34 million tons on November 27 compared to November 28, and urea plant inventory decreased 5.10% to 136.39 million tons [12] Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene supply is sufficient with device restarts and expected imports, and demand support is limited; styrene supply is expected to be stable, and demand support is also limited, but the inventory accumulation expectation is not obvious in December [13] Glass - Soda Ash - Soda ash production decreased due to device overhauls but recently recovered, and glass factory inventory decreased slightly; real - estate data shows mixed trends with new construction area decreasing and completion area increasing [14] PVC - Caustic Soda - Caustic soda supply is abundant, and demand support is weak; PVC supply pressure remains, and demand is in the off - season, but export orders are relatively good [15] Polyester Industry Chain - PX supply is expected to be better in the medium - term, and PTA supply decreased more than expected, while demand support is stronger than expected; MEG inventory accumulation in December is expected to narrow, but supply pressure remains [16] Group 4: Industry Core Views and Strategies Polyolefin - The fundamentals show a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, with cost support and inventory pressure coexisting [2] Methanol - Inland supply increases, and port imports are expected to decline, with winter fuel demand providing support [6] Crude Oil - International oil prices are expected to continue range - bound, with Brent likely to fluctuate between 60 - 65 dollars/barrel in the short - term [9] Natural Rubber - The market is expected to maintain range - bound consolidation, with rubber prices expected to operate between 15000 - 15500 yuan/ton [10] Urea - No specific overall view and strategy are clearly stated in the provided text [12] Benzene - Styrene - For pure benzene, short - term BZ2603 is recommended to be short on rebounds; for styrene, short - term EB01 is recommended to be treated as wide - range fluctuations [13] Glass - Soda Ash - Soda ash is expected to be in a bottom - range fluctuation, and glass is expected to face pressure in the medium - and long - term, with the 01 contract having pressure in December [14] PVC - Caustic Soda - Caustic soda prices are expected to be weak, and PVC is expected to continue the bottom - weakening pattern [15] Polyester Industry Chain - PX is recommended to pay attention to the pressure around 7000 yuan/ton in the short - term; PTA is expected to be in a high - level range - bound in the short - term; MEG is expected to be in a range - bound in December; short - fiber follows raw material fluctuations, and processing fees are recommended to be shorted on highs; bottle - chip processing fees are expected to be squeezed [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From the supply side, last week's lithium carbonate production was 21,865 tons, a 1.19% decrease from the previous week, but higher than the historical average. In November 2025, the production was 95,350 physical tons, and it is predicted to reach 98,210 physical tons next month, a 3.00% increase [8][9]. - On the demand side, last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 104,341 tons, a 1.71% increase from the previous week, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 19,361 tons, a 0.37% increase [8]. - In terms of cost, the cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate was 95,970 yuan/ton, a 2.68% daily increase, resulting in a loss of 2,927 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lepidolite was 94,750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a loss of 4,016 yuan/ton. The production cost on the recycling side is generally higher than that on the ore side, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost on the salt lake side is 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that on the ore side, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - The fundamentals are neutral; on December 2nd, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 94,400 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 2,160 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The smelter inventory was 24,324 tons, a 6.81% decrease from the previous week, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 41,984 tons, a 5.51% decrease from the previous week, higher than the historical average; other inventories were 49,660 tons, a 3.72% increase from the previous week, higher than the historical average; the total inventory was 115,968 tons, a 2.07% decrease from the previous week, higher than the historical average, which is neutral. The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20, which is bullish. The net position of the main players is short, and the short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [9]. - The expected price of lithium carbonate 2605 will fluctuate in the range of 92,980 - 96,740 yuan/ton. The bullish factors include the production cut plan of lepidolite manufacturers and the decrease in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile. The bearish factor is the continuous high supply on the ore/salt lake side with limited decline [9][11][12]. - The main logic is the emotional shock caused by news under the tight supply - demand balance [13]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - Supply: Last week's production decreased slightly, but November's production and next - month's predicted production increased. The cost of spodumene concentrate increased, while the cost of lepidolite remained unchanged. The salt lake side has cost advantages [8][9]. - Demand: The inventory of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials sample enterprises increased last week [8]. - Cost: Most production methods are in a loss - making state, except for the salt lake side [9]. - Market Indicators: Fundamentals are neutral, basis is bearish, inventory is neutral, disk is bullish, and main positions are bearish [9]. - Expectation: The price will fluctuate within a certain range, affected by both bullish and bearish factors [9][11][12]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Quotes Overview**: The prices of various lithium - related products, including lithium ore, lithium compounds, cathode materials, and lithium batteries, have different degrees of rise and fall. For example, the price of spodumene (6%) decreased by 0.50%, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.05% [15]. - **Supply - Related Data** - **Lithium Ore**: The price of lithium ore has changed, and the production, import, and self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore in different periods are presented. The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore shows different situations in each month [24][25][28]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The production, import, and export of lithium carbonate in different periods are provided, and the supply - demand balance also varies from month to month. The production and import of lithium carbonate in November 2025 increased compared with the previous period [30][31][37]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The capacity utilization rate, production, import, and export of lithium hydroxide are shown, and the supply - demand balance is also analyzed monthly [39][40][43]. - **Cost - Profit Data**: The cost, profit, and processing cost composition of various lithium compounds, such as spodumene, lepidolite, and recycled materials, are presented. Different production methods and materials have different cost - profit situations [45][46][48]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, including smelter inventory, downstream inventory, and total inventory, shows different trends of increase and decrease [53][55]. - **Demand - Related Data** - **Lithium Batteries**: The price, production, sales, and export of lithium batteries are presented, as well as the inventory and winning bids of energy - storage batteries [56][57][59]. - **Ternary Precursors**: The price, cost, profit, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors are analyzed [61][62][65]. - **Ternary Materials**: The price, cost, profit, production, and inventory of ternary materials are provided [67][68][71]. - **Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium**: The price, cost, profit, production, and inventory of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium are presented [73][74][77]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: The production, sales, export, and penetration rate of new energy vehicles are shown, as well as the retail - wholesale ratio and dealer inventory index [81][82][86].

伊朗装置开始停车，港口内地共振反弹，基差小幅走强，卸货慢，港口连续两周去库，浮仓很多，预计后期回归 累库，11月伊朗发 运110w，预计12-1月进口下降较难，盘面01给进口无风险套机会，认为01终点仍是高库存，偏向逢高 做15反套。 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但我司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何变化。我们提供的全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，您应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担 期货交易后果，凡据此入市者，我司不承担任何责任。我司在为您提供服务时已最大程度避免与您产生利益冲突。未经我司授权，不得随意转 载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力 造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我司均不承担 任何责任。 塑 料 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the high - sulfur cracking in Singapore fluctuated and weakened on Friday. The monthly spread was at a historical low, and the basis weakened and then fluctuated at a historical low. The HSFO cracking in Europe oscillated at a low level, and the EW weakened on Friday. The 0.5% cracking in Singapore continued to weaken this week, with the monthly spread weakening and the basis oscillating at a low level [3]. - In terms of inventory, there was a slight accumulation of residue in Singapore, a significant accumulation of high - sulfur floating storage, a reduction of residue in ARA, an accumulation of residue in Fujairah, high - sulfur floating storage oscillated at a high level, and a slight reduction of EIA residue [3]. - With the strengthening expectation of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, the cracking of gasoline and diesel in the external market continued to decline this week, and the price difference between low - sulfur and diesel continued to rebound [4]. - After the fire at the Al Zour refinery on October 21st, it stopped production. In December, the RFCC unit of the Dangote refinery is expected to enter maintenance, and VGO exports are expected to increase [4]. - The global heavy - oil market has entered the off - season with inventory accumulation. The external cracking is affected by crude oil fluctuations, and there is no improvement in the spot market. FU01 should be treated bearishly. The low - sulfur valuation is low but lacks a driving force [4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data - From November 26th to December 2nd, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 decreased by 7.55, the price of Rotterdam 0.5% VLSFO swap M1 decreased by 6.28, and the price difference between Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 decreased by 0.53 [1]. - Other price differences and spreads also showed corresponding changes during this period [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Data - For Singapore fuel oil, from November 26th to December 2nd, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 decreased by 7.03, the price of Singapore 180cst M1 decreased by 3.95, and the price of Singapore VLSFO M1 decreased by 1.19 [1]. - In the Singapore fuel oil spot market, the FOB 380cst price decreased by 1.00, and the FOB VLSFO price decreased by 1.20 from November 26th to December 2nd, 2025 [2]. Domestic Fuel Oil Futures Data - For domestic FU futures, from November 26th to December 2nd, 2025, FU 01 decreased by 26, FU 05 decreased by 20, and FU 09 decreased by 23 [2]. - For domestic LU futures, during the same period, LU 01 decreased by 19, LU 05 decreased by 15, and LU 09 decreased by 9 [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on December 3, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - Basis data for power coal from November 26 to December 2, 2025, is presented, but specific numerical values in the table are incomplete [1][2] 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - Basis data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from November 26 to December 2, 2025, are provided, including specific numerical values such as basis and ratio [7] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - Basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from November 26 to December 2, 2025, are given [9] - Inter - period spreads data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are presented, including 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month spreads [10] - Inter - variety spreads data of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3 * methanol from November 26 to December 2, 2025, are provided [10] 3.3 Black Metals - Basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from November 26 to December 2, 2025, are presented [20] - Inter - period spreads data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are given, including 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month (10) minus 1 - month, and 9 - month (10) minus 5 - month spreads [19] - Inter - variety spreads data of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from November 26 to December 2, 2025, are provided [19] 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - Domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from November 26 to December 2, 2025, are presented [29] 3.4.2 London Market - LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of LME non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) on December 2, 2025, are provided [34] 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from November 26 to December 2, 2025, are presented [42] - Inter - period spreads data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are given, including 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month spreads [42] - Inter - variety spreads data of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch from November 26 to December 2, 2025, are provided [41] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from November 26 to December 2, 2025, are presented [53] - Inter - period spreads data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, including next - month minus current - month and next - quarter minus current - quarter spreads, are given [53]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall market shows a weak performance in both stocks and bonds. The stock index futures experience a pullback in hot sectors, the implied volatility of stock index options fluctuates at a low level, and the bond market remains weak in the short - term but is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the medium - term [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Views - **Stock Index Futures**: On Tuesday, the sentiment in the equity market was weak, with sectors like computer, media, and new energy leading the decline, and only the dividend index being resilient. The factors contributing to the pullback are the sharp decline of Bitcoin against the US dollar on December 1st and the historical value - oriented style in December. Although it's unlikely to fall below the November low, the market is expected to be volatile in December, being stable before major meetings and facing risks in the second half of December. The recommended operation is to hold IM + dividend [1][7]. - **Stock Index Options**: On Tuesday, the trading volume of financial options decreased, and the implied volatility of each variety showed differentiation. The skewness remained at a high level, and the PCR of open interest decreased slightly, indicating weak market sentiment. In the short - term, the implied volatility may remain low, and the recommended strategy is to hold covered or short - put strategies. In the long - term, the market is expected to rise in a volatile manner, and it's advisable to pay attention to the layout window of far - month call options [2][7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On the previous day, treasury bond futures closed lower across the board, and the yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally increased. The central bank's net withdrawal of 145.8 billion yuan through 7 - day reverse repurchase had a stabilizing effect on the short - end of the bond market. The sharp decline of Vanke bonds and the non - exceeding - expected net investment of 50 billion yuan in treasury bond trading in November by the central bank were negative factors. However, the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading may boost market sentiment, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. The recommended strategies include trend, hedging, basis, and curve strategies [3][7][8]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - China's SPGI manufacturing PMI in November was 49.9, lower than the previous value of 50.9 and the forecast value of 50.5. The SPGI services PMI for November and other data are yet to be released. In the US, the ISM manufacturing PMI in November was 48.2, lower than the previous value of 48.7 and the forecast value of 49. Other data such as the ADP employment change and ISM non - manufacturing PMI for November are also pending release [9]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - The director of the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to strengthen the domestic cycle, build a strong domestic market, and promote the coordinated resolution of risks in real estate, local government debt, and small and medium - sized financial institutions [9]. - As of December 1st, 27 provinces in China have fully implemented the direct payment of maternity allowances to individuals. - Six major state - owned banks and some other banks have stopped selling 5 - year large - denomination certificates of deposit, and the term structure of large - denomination certificates of deposit has become "short - term" [10]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions data monitoring for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not presented in the provided content.

来源：市场资讯 （来源：格林大华期货资讯） 1 2 11 1 2 1 7 H 20 L 1 -------------- 不同,近月合约和远月合约还有哪些 区别呢? 流动性不同 / 近月合约: 近月合约是市场上最活跃和最受关注的合约, 因为离到期时间较近,交易活动相对较多。 远月合约: 远月合约的市场活跃度相对较低,交易活动较 少,流动性较低。 适用合约 近月合约通常是投资者和交易 者最常用的合约,因为它们的 交易量较大, 流动性较高, 更 容易进行买卖交易。但是越接 近交割日,流动性会逐步降低 (多数投资者移仓至远月)。 价格波动不同 // FFF 大 Q+ // 三 = ( + / + + = 77 现货供需直接影响,波动幅度相对较小,但临 近交割时基差(期货与现货价差)会逐渐收敛。 大豆产地收割延迟,导致发货量减 少,供小于求,这时候大豆的近月 合约的价格往往上升。 远月合约: 远月合约的价格更多反映未来供需预期、仓储 成本、资金利息等因素,波动幅度较大,且受 宏观政策或季节性因素(如种植面积、天气) 影响更显著。 在大豆的播种期,出现了不利天气,导 致大豆未来预期减产,这时候远月大豆 的价格往往会比近 ...

Report Information - Report Title: "Light Period Black: Iron Ore Basis and Spread Monitoring Daily Report" [1] - Report Date: December 2, 2025 [1] 1. Futures Contract Prices and Spreads - **Futures Contract Prices**: I05 closed at 777.5 yuan/ton, up 9.5 yuan from the previous day; I09 closed at 752.5 yuan/ton, up 9.0 yuan; I01 closed at 801.0 yuan/ton, up 7.0 yuan [3]. - **Contract Spreads**: The I05 - I09 spread was 25.0 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan; the I09 - I01 spread was -48.5 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan; the I01 - I05 spread was 23.5 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan [3]. 2. Basis Data - **Basis Changes**: The basis of various iron ore varieties showed different changes. For example, the basis of Carajás fines increased by 3 yuan to 48 yuan/ton, while the basis of BRBF decreased by 7 yuan to 55 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Policy Adjustments - **Increased Deliverable Varieties**: Four new deliverable varieties were added, including Bengang concentrate, IOC6, KUMBA, and Ukrainian concentrate, with brand premiums of 0 yuan/ton starting from the I2202 contract [11]. - **Adjusted Brand Premiums**: Only PB fines, BRBF, and Carajás fines have a brand premium of 15 yuan/ton, and the premiums of other deliverable brands are 0 yuan/ton [11]. - **Modified Quality Premiums**: The allowable range of iron grade was adjusted to ≥56%, and the allowable ranges of silica, alumina, phosphorus, and sulfur were set. The premium and discount rules for quality differences were also detailed [11]. 4. Variety Spreads - **Spread Changes**: The spreads between different iron ore varieties also changed. For example, the spread between Carajás fines and Newman fines increased by 5 yuan to 96 yuan/ton, while the spread between PB fines and BRBF decreased by 4 yuan to 31 yuan/ton [13]. Research Team - **Team Members**: The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, with rich industry experience and professional qualifications [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a state of tight supply - demand balance, with sentiment fluctuations triggered by news. The price of the lithium carbonate 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 93,240 - 97,000 yuan/ton. The overall assessment of the fundamentals is neutral, with both positive and negative factors present [8][10][15]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 21,865 tons, a 1.19% decrease from the previous week, but still higher than the historical average. In October 2025, the production was 92,260 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 92,080 tons, a 0.19% decrease. The import volume in October 2025 was 23,881 tons, and it is predicted to reach 27,000 tons next month, a 13.06% increase [8][10]. - **Demand Side**: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 104,341 tons, a 1.71% increase from the previous week, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 19,361 tons, a 0.37% increase. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced [8][10]. - **Cost Side**: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 93,461 yuan/ton, a 1.67% daily increase, resulting in a loss of 1,012 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 94,750 yuan/ton, a 0.24% daily increase, resulting in a loss of 4,604 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - **Other Factors**: On December 1st, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 94,350 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 2,590 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price. The smelter inventory decreased by 6.81% to 24,324 tons, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory decreased by 5.51% to 41,984 tons, higher than the historical average; other inventories increased by 3.72% to 49,660 tons, higher than the historical average; the total inventory decreased by 2.07% to 115,968 tons, higher than the historical average. The MA20 of the disk was upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20. The net position of the main contract was short, with an increase in short positions [12]. - **Positive Factors**: Lithium mica manufacturers have plans to stop or reduce production, and the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile has decreased on a month - on - month basis [13]. - **Negative Factors**: The supply from the ore/salt - lake end remains at a high level, and the decline is limited [14]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - **Price Changes**: The prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other related products have shown different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased from 93,750 yuan/ton to 94,350 yuan/ton, an increase of 600 yuan/ton [17]. - **Supply - Side Data**: The weekly and monthly operating rates, production, and processing costs of lithium spodumene and lithium mica have changed to varying degrees. For example, the monthly production of lithium spodumene increased by 5.14% to 348,500 tons, and the daily production cost increased by 1.67% to 93,461 yuan/ton [20]. - **Demand - Side Data**: The production, inventory, and export volume of lithium iron phosphate, lithium iron phosphate lithium, and other products have also changed. For example, the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 4.69% to 412,850 tons, and the weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate increased by 1.71% to 104,341 tons [20]. 3.3 Supply - Related Content - **Lithium Ore**: The price, production, and import volume of lithium ore have changed over time. The price of lithium ore has fluctuated, and the production and import volume of lithium spodumene and lithium mica have shown different trends [25][26]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The operating rate, production, import volume, and supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate have been analyzed. The operating rate and production of different sources of lithium carbonate (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake, and recycling) have changed, and the import volume from different countries has also fluctuated [31][32][38]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The capacity utilization rate, production, export volume, and supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide have been studied. The capacity utilization rate and production of lithium hydroxide have changed, and the export volume has also shown different trends [40][43]. 3.4 Cost - Profit of Lithium Compounds - The cost and profit of various lithium compounds, such as purchased lithium spodumene concentrate, purchased lithium mica concentrate, and recycled lithium carbonate, have been analyzed. Different production methods and raw materials have different cost - profit situations [45][46][48]. 3.5 Inventory - The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide has been monitored. The inventory of lithium carbonate includes smelter inventory, downstream inventory, and other inventories, and the overall inventory has changed. The inventory of lithium hydroxide also shows different trends [53][55]. 3.6 Demand - Related Content - **Lithium Battery**: The price, production, shipment, and export volume of lithium batteries have been analyzed. The price of lithium batteries has fluctuated, and the production, shipment, and export volume have changed over time [56][57]. - **Ternary Precursor**: The price, production, import - export volume, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors have been studied. The price of ternary precursors has changed, and the production, import - export volume, and supply - demand balance have also shown different trends [61][62][65]. - **Ternary Material**: The price, cost - profit, production, import - export volume, and inventory of ternary materials have been analyzed. The price and cost - profit of ternary materials have changed, and the production, import - export volume, and inventory have also fluctuated [67][68][70]. - **Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron Lithium**: The price, production cost, production, export volume, and inventory of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium have been studied. The price and production cost have changed, and the production, export volume, and inventory have also shown different trends [72][74][75]. - **New Energy Vehicle**: The production, sales, export volume, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles have been analyzed. The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles have changed, and the sales penetration rate has also shown different trends [79][80][81].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This is a futures research report from Baocheng Futures, presenting variety arbitrage data on December 2, 2025, covering multiple sectors such as thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1] Summary by Directory 1. Thermal Coal - The report shows the basis data of thermal coal from November 25 to December 1, 2025. The basis on December 1 was 6.6 yuan/ton, showing a decreasing trend compared to previous days. The spreads of 5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, and 9 - month vs 5 - month were all 0.0 [1][2] 2. Energy Chemicals (1) Energy Commodities - It provides basis and price ratio data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and crude oil/asphalt from November 25 to December 1, 2025. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on December 1 was 3.54 yuan/ton [6] (2) Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from November 25 to December 1, 2025 are presented. For instance, the basis of rubber on December 1 was - 450 yuan/ton [8] - **Inter - period Spread**: Spreads of 5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, and 9 - month vs 5 - month for rubber, methanol, PTA, etc. are given. For example, the 5 - month vs 1 - month spread of rubber was 30 yuan/ton [10] - **Inter - commodity Spread**: The inter - commodity spreads such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc. from November 25 to December 1, 2025 are shown. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread on December 1 was 2238 yuan/ton [10] 3. Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from November 25 to December 1, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of rebar on December 1 was 176.0 yuan/ton [20] - **Inter - period Spread**: Spreads of 5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month(10) vs 1 - month, and 9 - month(10) vs 5 - month for rebar, iron ore, etc. are presented. For example, the 5 - month vs 1 - month spread of rebar was 22.0 yuan/ton [19] - **Inter - commodity Spread**: The inter - commodity spreads such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, etc. from November 25 to December 1, 2025 are given. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio on December 1 was 3.92 [19] 4. Non - ferrous Metals (1) Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. from November 25 to December 1, 2025 are shown. For example, the basis of copper on December 1 was - 70 yuan/ton [27] (2) London Market - Data including LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss for LME non - ferrous metals on December 1, 2025 are provided. For example, the LME spread of copper was 69.10, and the import loss was (1359.37) [33] 5. Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, etc. from November 25 to December 1, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on December 1 was - 106 yuan/ton [40] - **Inter - period Spread**: Spreads of 5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, and 9 - month vs 5 - month for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, etc. are given. For example, the 5 - month vs 1 - month spread of soybeans No.1 was 41 yuan/ton [40] - **Inter - commodity Spread**: The inter - commodity spreads such as soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, etc. from November 25 to December 1, 2025 are shown. For example, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio on December 1 was 1.84 [40] 6. Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from November 25 to December 1, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on December 1 was 21.09 [51] - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of the next - month vs current - month and next - quarter vs current - quarter for CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. are presented. For example, the next - month vs current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 16.0 [51]