报告核心观点 - The report provides a weekly preview of key economic events and their potential impact on the futures market [2][3] - It emphasizes the importance of factors such as macro - policies, trade wars, geopolitical situations, and official speeches on the futures market [2] 本周重点关注 - On September 1st at 9:45, Markit will release China's August SPGI Manufacturing PMI, expected to be 49.5, same as the previous value [2][3] - On September 3rd, a grand military parade will be held in Beijing to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti - Fascist War [2][9] - On September 4th at 02:00, the Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book of Economic Conditions [2][12] - On September 5th at 20:30, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the August non - farm payroll report [2][20] 本周热点前瞻 September 1st - China's August SPGI Manufacturing PMI: If slightly higher than the previous value, it will slightly boost commodity and stock index futures prices but slightly suppress treasury bond futures prices [3] - Eurozone's July unemployment rate: Expected to be 6.2%, same as the previous value [4] September 2nd - Eurozone's August CPI preliminary value: Expected eurozone August harmonized CPI annual rate - unadjusted preliminary value is 2.0%, same as the previous value [5] - US August ISM Manufacturing PMI: If slightly higher than the previous value, it will slightly boost non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related futures prices but slightly suppress gold and silver futures prices [6] September 3rd - Military parade in Beijing to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti - Fascist War, lasting about 70 minutes [9] - US July factory orders: If the monthly rate is higher than the previous value, it will boost non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures prices but suppress gold and silver futures prices [11] September 4th - China's August SPGI Services PMI and Composite PMI: Expected services PMI is 52.5, previous value was 52.6 [10] - Federal Reserve Beige Book of Economic Conditions: Attention should be paid to its content and impact on related futures prices [12] - August下旬 circulation area important production material market prices: Include 9 categories and 50 products [13] - Eurozone's July retail sales: Expected monthly rate is 0.2%, previous value was 0.3% [14] - US August ADP employment change: If lower than the previous value, it will suppress non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures prices but boost gold and silver futures prices [15] - US initial jobless claims for the week ending August 30th: If slightly lower than the previous value, it will slightly suppress gold and silver futures prices and slightly boost other industrial product futures prices [16] - US August ISM Non - Manufacturing PMI: If slightly higher than the previous value, it will slightly suppress gold and silver futures prices [17] September 5th - US EIA crude oil inventory change for the week ending August 29th: If the inventory continues to decline, it will boost crude oil and related commodity futures prices [18] - US August non - farm payroll report: If the seasonally adjusted new non - farm employment is slightly higher than the previous value but the unemployment rate is slightly higher, it will strengthen the market's expectation of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in September, slightly boost non - gold and non - silver commodity futures prices but suppress gold and silver futures prices [20] September 7th - China's August foreign exchange reserves and gold reserves: July foreign exchange reserves were $3292.235 billion, and gold reserves were 73.96 million ounces [21]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the positive developments in the national economy over the first seven months, with new growth drivers emerging and a stable yet progressive economic operation [1] - The macroeconomic policies have become more proactive, effectively promoting high-quality economic development, despite facing various risks and challenges [1] - The government has implemented measures such as issuing long-term special bonds and utilizing various monetary policy tools to maintain liquidity and stabilize employment [1] Group 2 - Enhancing policy effectiveness requires timely responses to market concerns and ensuring the forward-looking nature of macroeconomic policies [2] - Policies should focus on stimulating market vitality and be tailored to address bottlenecks in industrial transformation and enterprise operational challenges [2] - A robust evaluation mechanism is essential to assess the effectiveness of policies and ensure they meet their intended goals [2] Group 3 - Strengthening collaborative innovation is necessary to ensure the systematic nature of policies, promoting a unified national market and addressing competitive issues [3] - Coordinated efforts across various policy areas, including finance, trade, and environmental regulations, are crucial for enhancing the internal momentum for high-quality development [3] - The improvement of forward-looking, effective, and systematic policies is expected to shape positive market expectations, leading to proactive economic behaviors [3]

Economic Overview - The overall economic operation of Huizhou is stable, with a focus on high-quality development and effective implementation of macro policies during January to July 2025 [2] Industrial Production - The industrial added value of above-scale enterprises increased by 10.1% year-on-year, with mining decreasing by 4.1%, manufacturing growing by 10.4%, and utilities increasing by 6.2% [2] - The electronic industry grew by 14.4%, petrochemical energy and new materials by 5.6%, and life health manufacturing by 10.3% [2] - Advanced manufacturing added value increased by 10.3%, accounting for 61.7% of the total industrial added value, while high-tech manufacturing increased by 13.9%, making up 42.5% [2] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment decreased by 20.3% year-on-year, with cultural, sports, and entertainment investment increasing by 57.5%, while manufacturing investment fell by 11.4% [2] - New commercial housing sales area dropped by 33.3% [2] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 1210.47 billion yuan, growing by 4.8%, with urban retail sales increasing by 5.1% and rural retail sales by 3.6% [3] - Online retail sales surged by 43.5% [3] Foreign Trade - The total foreign trade import and export volume reached 2374.65 billion yuan, growing by 6.8%, with exports at 1342.41 billion yuan (up 7.5%) and imports at 1032.24 billion yuan (up 5.9%) [3] Fiscal and Financial Performance - General public budget revenue was 282.48 billion yuan, up 2.9% year-on-year, while total tax revenue decreased by 1.9% [3] - By the end of July, financial institutions' deposits reached 9687.93 billion yuan, growing by 4.0%, and loans reached 11297.44 billion yuan, increasing by 3.6% [3] Consumer Price Index - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, with food and tobacco prices down by 0.2% and clothing prices up by 6.5% [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - Sichuan Chengyu (601107) reported a decline in revenue for the first half of 2025, while showing an increase in profit attributable to owners, indicating a mixed performance amid external uncertainties [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2025 was 4.08 billion RMB, a decrease of 23.3% year-on-year [1] - Profit attributable to owners was 838 million RMB, an increase of 20.1% year-on-year [1] - Basic earnings per share were 0.260 RMB [1] Economic Context - The macroeconomic policies have shown positive effects, contributing to a stable and improving economic environment [1] - Despite the positive trends, there are still significant external uncertainties and insufficient domestic demand that need to be addressed for sustained recovery [1] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on enhancing project construction, improving management levels, and increasing cost reduction and efficiency efforts to achieve growth in various economic indicators [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Views - For building materials, it is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner [2]. - For aluminum ingots, the price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and mining news [3]. 3) Summary by Related Content Building Materials - **Production suspension situation**: In the Yunnan - Guizhou region, short - process construction steel producers' suspension time during the Spring Festival is mostly in mid - to late January, with resumption expected between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most of the rest will stop around mid - January, with an expected daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the suspension [1][2]. - **Real estate transaction data**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2]. - **Market situation**: The price of building materials continued to decline and reached a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment was pessimistic, and the price center continued to move down. This year's winter storage was sluggish, with weak price support [2]. - **Follow - up focus**: Macro - policies and downstream demand [2]. Aluminum Ingots - **Macro - situation**: After US President Trump dismissed a Federal Reserve governor, market confidence in the Fed wavered. Fed Chair Powell hinted at a possible rate cut in September, and the market currently expects an over 87% chance of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September [1]. - **Demand situation**: The demand side is the core concern. Some enterprises have started to stock up for the peak - season orders. The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59.5% last week. Different sub - sectors showed varying degrees of change, with some increasing and the regenerative aluminum operating rate slightly decreasing by 0.1 percentage points to 53.0% [2]. - **Inventory situation**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots in the main consumption areas increased by 4,500 tons to 463,500 tons on Tuesday. The traditional off - season led to weak demand and continuous inventory accumulation. Holders were not optimistic about the future premium and actively sold, suppressing the spot premium [2]. - **Market outlook**: The price is expected to run at a high level recently, and attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend. The off - season and its actual impact will still put pressure on the upside [3]. - **Follow - up focus**: Macro - expectation changes, geopolitical crisis development, mining resumption, and consumption release [3].

Market Overview - The A-share market demonstrated resilience this week, unaffected by external adjustments in overseas markets, indicating independent market behavior [15] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 12,166.06, up 4.57%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 3,825.76, up 3.49% [4] - Average daily trading volume exceeded 25 billion yuan, marking a significant increase in market activity [15] Industry Performance - All 31 sectors in the Shenwan primary industry classification experienced gains, with no sectors declining [5] - The top three performing sectors were Communication, Electronics, and Comprehensive, while there were no sectors with negative performance [5] Financing and Margin Trading - As of August 22, the total margin trading balance in the market reached 2,155.1 billion yuan, an increase of 925 million yuan from the previous week [6] - The financing balance was 2,140.1 billion yuan, up 915 million yuan, while the margin balance increased by 9 million yuan to 14.9 billion yuan [6] Net Buying Trends - Most industries recorded positive net buying amounts, indicating strong investor interest across various sectors [7] - The top ten stocks by net financing purchases included ZTE Corporation (198.75 million yuan), SMIC (186.91 million yuan), and Cambricon Technologies (173.11 million yuan), primarily in the Communication and Electronics sectors [10] ETF Performance - The top ten ETFs by net financing purchases included the CSI 500 ETF (6.04 million yuan) and the Guotai CSI All-Share Securities Company ETF (3.99 million yuan), reflecting investor preferences for diversified exposure [11][12]

Core Points - The meeting emphasized the importance of aligning thoughts and actions with the decisions of the Central Committee, aiming to support the overall economic and social development goals for the year and successfully conclude the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] Group 1 - The meeting reviewed the report from the Municipal Supervisory Commission regarding the rectification of corruption and misconduct issues affecting the public [2] - The government reported progress on 40 livelihood projects, with 14 projects completed or exceeding annual targets, and 3 projects ahead of schedule [2] - The meeting discussed the 2024 municipal budget execution and audit report, recommending optimization of fiscal policy, deepening tax system reforms, and enhancing audit supervision to ensure stable financial operations [2] Group 2 - The government presented a report on the execution of the national economic and social development plan for the first half of 2025, focusing on project attraction, industrial transformation, and risk prevention [3] - The meeting included reports from various officials, highlighting the collaborative efforts of different departments in achieving the city's development objectives [3]

Report Information - Report Title: Weekly Report on the Black Industry Chain [1] - Report Date: August 25, 2025 [2] - Report Provider: Huabao Futures [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - **Overall Market**: The black market is facing a complex situation with various factors influencing different segments. The market is affected by factors such as supply and demand dynamics, macro - policies, and the approaching 9.3 parade, which may lead to production restrictions [9][10]. - **Steel Products**: The steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with prices likely to fluctuate and trend downward in the short term [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore is expected to be stronger this week, influenced by macro factors. The supply - demand relationship has shifted from tight to balanced, and the price is expected to trade in the range of 775 - 810 yuan/ton for the main contract [10]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke are likely to experience increased volatility. Overseas interest - rate cut expectations and domestic environmental protection policies are key influencing factors [11]. - **Ferroalloys**: Ferroalloy prices are expected to follow the black market trend and trade in a range, with supply increasing slightly and demand remaining resilient but not strongly driving prices [12]. Summary by Directory 01. Weekly Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Most futures and spot prices of black products declined last week. For example, the futures price of rebar RB2510 dropped from 3188 to 3119 yuan/ton (-2.16%), and the spot price of HRB400E Φ20 in Shanghai decreased from 3320 to 3280 yuan/ton (-1.20%) [7]. 02. This Week's Black Market Forecast Steel Products - **Logic**: The utilization rate of blast - furnace iron - making capacity increased slightly, while the profitability rate of steel mills decreased. The demand for finished steel products is weak, and the approaching parade may affect both supply and demand. The decline in coking coal and coke prices also contributed to the steel price adjustment [9]. - **Viewpoint**: The price of steel products is expected to be volatile and trend downward in the short term [9]. - **Concerns**: Macro - policies and downstream demand [9]. Iron Ore - **Logic**: The supply of iron ore has increased more than expected, with Australian and Brazilian shipments rising. The demand is still resilient but with a weakening support. The inventory is expected to remain stable or increase slightly [10]. - **Viewpoint**: The price of iron ore is expected to be stronger this week, trading in the range of 775 - 810 yuan/ton for the main contract [10]. - **Concerns**: Parade - related production - restriction policies, Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and supply growth rate [10]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Logic**: Coking coal prices were volatile last week, affected by a coal - mine accident and Fed's dovish remarks. Coke completed the 7th round of price increase. Environmental protection policies may lead to production restrictions in steel mills [11]. - **Viewpoint**: The prices of coking coal and coke are likely to be more volatile, with short - term demand showing a downward trend [11]. - **Concerns**: Implementation of environmental protection policies, coal production, steel - mill iron - water output, and import - coal customs clearance [11]. Ferroalloys - **Logic**: Overseas interest - rate cut expectations have increased. The supply of ferroalloys has increased slightly, while the demand has decreased slightly. The inventory has decreased, and the cost support is different for different alloys [12]. - **Viewpoint**: Ferroalloy prices are expected to follow the black market trend and trade in a range [12]. - **Concerns**: Tariff policies, domestic macro - policies, terminal demand, steel - mill profitability, and domestic production - restriction policies [12]. 03. Variety Data Steel Products - **Rebar**: Last week, the production was 214.65 tons (down 5.8 tons week - on - week), and the apparent demand was 194.8 tons (up 4.86 tons week - on - week). The total inventory increased by 19.85 tons to 607.04 tons [14][22]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The production was 325.24 tons (up 9.65 tons week - on - week), and the apparent demand was 321.27 tons (up 6.52 tons week - on - week). The total inventory increased by 3.97 tons to 361.44 tons [28][32]. Iron Ore - **Port Inventory**: The total port inventory of imported iron ore was 13845.20 tons (up 25.93 tons week - on - week), with the Australian ore inventory at 6114.03 tons (down 13.50 tons week - on - week) and the Brazilian ore inventory at 4996.89 tons (up 56.05 tons week - on - week) [45]. - **Steel - Mill Inventory**: The inventory of 247 steel mills was 9065.47 tons (down 70.93 tons week - on - week), and the daily consumption was 297.84 tons/day (down 0.68 tons/day week - on - week) [55]. - **Global Shipment**: The total global shipment was 3406.6 tons (up 359.9 tons week - on - week), with Australian and Brazilian shipments to the world at 2669.7 tons (up 242.0 tons week - on - week) [70]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory was 888.62 tons (up 1.21 tons week - on - week), and the total coking coal inventory was 2610.599 tons (up 17.7 tons week - on - week) [96][103]. - **Profitability and Production**: The average profit per ton of coke for independent coke enterprises was 23 yuan (up 3 yuan week - on - week), and the daily production of 523 coking coal mines was 77.1 tons (up 0.7 tons week - on - week) [111][112]. Ferroalloys - **Spot Price**: The spot price of manganese ore in Tianjin Port (Mn36% semi - carbonate manganese block from South Africa) was 34 yuan/dry - ton degree (down 0.8 yuan week - on - week), the spot price of ferromanganese 6517 in Inner Mongolia was 5750 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan week - on - week), and the spot price of ferrosilicon 72 in Inner Mongolia was 5300 yuan/ton (down 150 yuan week - on - week) [127]. - **Production and Demand**: The weekly production of silicomanganese (187 independent enterprises) was 211190 tons (up 4130 tons week - on - week), and the weekly demand for silicomanganese in five major steel products decreased by 0.08% week - on - week [133][139]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 63 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 156000 tons (down 2800 tons week - on - week), and the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 62080 tons (down 3100 tons week - on - week) [143].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that an open China is essential for modernization, with the government promoting reform, development, and innovation to drive high-quality economic growth and contribute to global economic recovery [1][3]. - The State Council's press conference highlighted the achievements in customs regulation during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with an average of 5.2 billion tons of imports and exports annually, valued at 41.5 trillion yuan, making it the largest globally [7]. - The macroeconomic policies implemented this year, including more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, have effectively stabilized the economy and improved development quality [8]. Group 2 - The "2025 Shanghai Cooperation Organization National Cultural Exchange Activities" were held, focusing on media cooperation among member states [12]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims to enhance the quality of development, with the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference discussing the formulation of the national economic and social development plan [6]. - The launch of the national standard for "Design Guidelines for Elderly Furniture" aims to improve furniture products' compatibility with the needs of the elderly, set to be implemented in February 2026 [14].

This Week's Key Focus - On August 25, the People's Bank of China will conduct 600 billion yuan of MLF operations [2][3] - On August 27, China's National Bureau of Statistics will announce the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size for July and January - July [2][10] - On August 28, the US Department of Commerce will announce the revised value of the US GDP for the second quarter of 2025 [2][15] - On August 29, the US Department of Commerce will announce the PCE price index for July [2][19] - On August 31, China will announce the official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and comprehensive PMI for August [2][22] - From August 31 to September 1, the 2025 Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit will be held in Tianjin [2][23] This Week's Hotspot Preview August 25 - The People's Bank of China will conduct 600 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations, with a net investment of 300 billion yuan, a sixth consecutive month of increased renewal [3] - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference to introduce the achievements of customs in safeguarding national security and promoting high - quality development during the 14th Five - Year Plan period [4] - The US will announce July new home sales. If the annualized total is slightly lower than the previous value, it will mildly suppress the rise of non - ferrous metal futures but mildly help the rise of gold and silver futures [5] August 26 - The State Council Information Office will hold two press conferences, one on the achievements of high - quality energy development during the 14th Five - Year Plan period and the other on the 25th China International Investment and Trade Fair [7] - The US will announce the preliminary value of July durable goods orders. If the monthly rate is higher than the previous value, it will help the prices of non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures rise but suppress the prices of gold and silver futures [8] - The US will announce the August Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index. If it is slightly higher than the previous value, it will mildly help the prices of non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related futures rise but suppress the prices of gold and silver futures [9] August 27 - China will announce the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size for July and January - July. From January to June, the year - on - year profit decreased by 1.8%, and in June, it decreased by 4.3% year - on - year [10] - The Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council will hold a press conference [11] - Germany will announce the September Gfk Consumer Confidence Index, with an expected value of - 22 and a previous value of - 21.5 [12] - The Eurozone will announce the August economic sentiment index and industrial sentiment index. If both are slightly higher than the previous values, it will mildly help the prices of related industrial product futures rise [13] - EIA will announce the change in US crude oil inventories for the week ending August 22. If the inventory continues to decline, it will help crude oil and related commodity futures rise [14] August 28 - The US will announce the revised value of the second - quarter GDP for 2025, with an expected annualized quarterly rate of 3.0% [15] - The US will announce the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending August 23. If it is slightly higher than the previous value, it will mildly suppress the rise of commodity futures except for gold and silver futures but mildly help the prices of gold and silver futures rise [16] - The US will announce the seasonally adjusted pending home sales index for July. If the monthly rate is higher than the previous value, it will help the prices of non - ferrous metal futures rise but suppress the prices of gold and silver futures [17] August 29 - The US will announce personal spending and personal income for July. If the monthly rates are slightly higher than the previous values, it will mildly suppress the rise of gold and silver futures but mildly help the rise of industrial product futures except for gold and silver futures [18] - The US will announce the PCE price index for July, with an expected annual rate of 2.6% and an expected core annual rate of 2.9% [19] - The US will announce the August Chicago PMI. If it is slightly higher than the previous value, it will help the rise of non - ferrous metal futures but suppress the rise of gold and silver futures [20] August 31 - China will announce the official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and comprehensive PMI for August. If both the manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs are slightly lower than the previous values, it will mildly suppress the rise of stock index futures and commodity futures prices [22] - The 2025 Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit will be held in Tianjin, and President Xi Jinping will participate in relevant activities and deliver a keynote speech [23]