Core Insights - The report from Bank of America compares Labubu, a trendy IP, to the traditional liquor giant Moutai, highlighting the differences in their social currency attributes and consumer engagement [1][2] - Labubu's appeal is rooted in the interests and values of the younger generation, while Moutai's social function is tied to power and hierarchy, reflecting a shift from traditional to new consumption patterns [1][2] Group 1: Social Currency and Consumer Behavior - Labubu and Moutai both possess social currency but differ in generational appeal; Moutai serves as a "social/business lubricant," while Labubu caters to emotional value in a digital social media context [2] - The transition from an investment-driven model to a consumption-driven model in China is indicated by Labubu's success, which aligns with global trends [2] Group 2: IP Lifecycle and Investment Attributes - Both Bubble Mart and Moutai face challenges related to IP lifecycle and investment attributes, with the potential for slowed global growth if there is a long gap between Labubu and the next hit IP [3][4] - The historical resilience of Moutai, with its centuries of legacy, contrasts with the relatively short histories of Bubble Mart and Labubu, which are 15 and 10 years old respectively [4] Group 3: Regulatory and Market Risks - Regulatory risks are significant for both Moutai and Bubble Mart, with the latter facing scrutiny as its consumer base diversifies; however, its growing overseas business may mitigate some risks [7] - The phenomenon of "crowded trades" in capital markets, similar to the influx of funds into Moutai from 2016 to 2021, is now observed in the new consumption sector represented by Bubble Mart [8]

6月24日，港股三大指数集体高开，截至发稿，恒生指数涨0.61%，恒生科技指数涨0.96%，国企指数涨 0.60%。 国信证券分析称，今年上半年港股收益率在全球指数中大幅领先。主要由于良好的业绩和不高的估值。 其中，美元的走弱，地缘的冲突，也让全球资本对港股的长期投资价值开始重估。国信证券还强调对于 港股，其风险不来自自身，而是来自外部。 短线而言，在地缘局势更为明朗前，市场对行情的修复意愿也偏弱，仍需静待明确的拐点信号出现。 国泰海通认为，尽管宏观层面缺乏向上的弹性，但产业层面的深刻变革正在发生，顺应当前产业发展趋 势的新消费、AI应用等港股稀缺性资产或更受市场关注。此外，展望下半年，基本面修复和资金面改 善推动港股继续向上，结构上恒生科技更加值得重视。 国元国际表示，前港股外部环境整体稳定，市场情绪相对良好，包括医药行业在内的部分行业估值显著 提升，显示港股目前结构性行情仍然存在。前恒指已突破关键阻力位，有助于市场信心进一步恢复。 热点聚焦 1、据央视新闻报道，当地时间6月23日，美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体平台"真实社交"上发文表示，以 色列和伊朗已完全同意全面停火。以色列和伊朗暂未有相关的官方表态。 盘 ...

最后，美银认为，在近期股价回落后，老铺黄金的风险回报比具吸引力。尽管其盈利增长更快，但老铺 黄金的估值极具吸引力，目前2025和2026财年市盈率的估值分别为29倍、21倍的，较"新消费"同行平均 36倍、26倍的市盈率分别折让19%及18%。随着禁售期即将到期，美银认为任何价格下跌均为良好的入 场时机。 美银认为老铺黄金有以下利好因素，其一是加快开店速度及销售势头强劲。美银指，老铺黄金今年至今 已开设4家精品店，计划2025年共开设8家，超该行原先预测，其中21日开幕的新加坡门店吸引大量客 流。此外，今年至今线上销售表现强劲下，该行预期黄金价格上涨(根据该行预测，未来12个月可能达 到每盎司4,000美元)、老铺黄金的创新产品推出及品牌知名度提升，将继续推动老铺黄金的的销量稳健 增长，促进市场渗透。 此外，美银预测老铺黄金今年6月28日将迎来大规模限售股解禁，23%的股份将可出售。该行预期限售 股解禁后，预计自由流通股本可能会更健康，从而扩大老铺黄金投资者基础，降低波动性并提升价格发 现。美银还预期海外投资兴趣增加及"新消费"类股之间的轮动将带来有利资金流。 美银证券发布研报称，尽管老铺黄金(06181)次 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Founder Securities indicates that the recent fluctuations in the Hong Kong dollar (HKD) are primarily due to the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's (HKMA) large-scale liquidity injections rather than passive depreciation caused by a strengthening US dollar [1][2]. Currency Fluctuations - Since May, the HKD has experienced increased volatility, touching the weak side of the peg. As of June 23, the USD/HKD exchange rate was 7.85, a depreciation of 1.3% from the 7.75 high in early May [2]. - The HKMA typically maintains the USD/HKD exchange rate within the 7.75-7.85 range, intervening by injecting or absorbing liquidity as needed. The recent fluctuations were not due to a strengthening USD but rather the HKMA's proactive liquidity measures [2][3]. Market Concerns - Current market concerns include whether the HKMA will tighten liquidity again after the HKD touches the weak side of the peg, which historically has had a limited impact on the market [3]. - Another concern is whether low HIBOR rates will lead to significant capital outflows from the Hong Kong stock market. However, foreign capital has not been the main source of incremental funds for the market in recent years, and southbound capital continues to flow into Hong Kong stocks [3][4]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the current uptrend in the Hong Kong stock market is likely to continue, driven by strong economic fundamentals and a series of favorable policies. The market's risk appetite has significantly improved [4]. - Southbound capital is increasingly flowing into core assets in the Hong Kong market, particularly in sectors like artificial intelligence and new consumption, which are aligned with emerging industry trends and have a degree of scarcity [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in the stock prices of Pop Mart and its peers in the new consumption sector reflects a market correction, driven by high valuations and a cooling consumer sentiment [1][4]. Group 1: Pop Mart's Stock Performance - Pop Mart's stock price has dropped over 15% from its peak, resulting in a market capitalization loss of more than 500 billion HKD [1][2]. - The trading price of Pop Mart's popular IP, Labubu, has plummeted in the secondary market, with a 45% drop for hidden versions and a 54% drop for non-hidden versions [2]. - On June 20, Pop Mart's stock closed at 239.6 HKD per share, down 3.62%, with significant trading volume nearing 10 billion HKD and net selling by southbound funds reaching 617 million HKD, the highest since May 12, 2025 [2][3]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Valuation - The new consumption sector, including Pop Mart, Lao Pu Gold, and Mixue Group, has experienced a collective decline, with Lao Pu Gold down over 19% and Mixue Group down nearly 17% [1][4]. - Analysts indicate that the current high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios in the new consumption sector suggest overvaluation, with Pop Mart's P/E ratio at 97.17, compared to traditional consumer giants like Kweichow Moutai at 20.04 [4]. - Some analysts warn that if market sentiment cools or consumer enthusiasm wanes, stock prices may face further adjustments due to inflated expectations [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the recent downturn, some fund managers remain optimistic about the long-term growth potential of new consumption companies, focusing on emotional consumption, cost-effective products, and international expansion [5]. - Lao Pu Gold and Mixue Group have shown signs of recovery, with Lao Pu Gold rising nearly 6% after opening its first overseas store in Singapore, indicating strategic growth opportunities [6].

Core Insights - The "2025 Northeast Asia International Consumer Goods Expo" held in Shenyang from June 20 to 23 showcased a vibrant array of consumer brands and products, highlighting the region's potential in the consumer market [1][4]. Exhibition Overview - The expo featured an exhibition area of 85,000 square meters, hosting over 800 domestic and international consumer brands, creating a shopping paradise for attendees [3]. - Various themed areas included fashion, beauty, food, home goods, and technology, catering to diverse consumer interests [3]. Fashion and Beauty - The fashion section displayed international and domestic brands, with models showcasing the latest trends, while the beauty area offered a wide range of cosmetics and skincare products for attendees to try [3]. Food and Beverage - The food section highlighted local Northeast specialties such as Shenyang's "Bulao Lin" candy and Harbin's red sausage, alongside international cuisines like Japanese sushi and Korean kimchi, attracting food enthusiasts [3]. Home and Technology - The home goods area featured smart home products and elegant tableware, reflecting modern living standards, while the technology section presented cutting-edge electronic products, drawing interest from tech enthusiasts [3]. Regional Impact - The expo served as a platform for Northeast products to gain visibility and foster collaboration opportunities, enhancing the region's appeal in the consumer market [4]. - The event is expected to pave the way for more exhibitions in Northeast China, promoting regional culture and products to a broader audience [4].

证券研究报告 2025/06/23 1 三大投资主线： 龙头。 风险提示：国内外需求波动的风险、行业竞争加剧、汇率波动风险、关税风险 2 家电新消费：看好新产品形态、新行业阶段两类投资机会。1、新产品形态：重点看好极具成长潜力的手持智能影像赛道；2、 新行业阶段：看好高成长潜力+国产品牌全球份额快速扩张的扫地机板块。 家电新制造：看好主业基本面扎实，布局机器人方向的优质企业。 业绩稳健增长的黑白电龙头：1、看好高股息+业绩稳定性高的白电龙头。2、看好产品结构升级带动利润率持续改善的黑电 3 板块复盘 4 -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 有色金属 银行 传媒 美容护理 汽车 医药生物 机械设备 农林牧渔 环保 基础化工 国防军工 计算机 通信 纺织服饰 综合 轻工制造 社会服务 钢铁 公用事业 电子 交通运输 石油石化 家用电器 建筑材料 非银金融 建筑装饰 电力设备 商贸零售 食品饮料 房地产 煤炭 -10.00 -5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 白色家电 黑色家电 小家电 厨卫电器 照明设备Ⅱ 家电零部件Ⅱ 绝对涨跌幅（% ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of the consumer landscape in China, highlighting the shift from traditional brands to domestic brands driven by the new generation of consumers, particularly the Z generation, who prioritize practicality and value over brand prestige [3][4]. Group 1: Key Trends in New Consumption - The new consumption trend is characterized by a collective disillusionment with foreign brands, as consumers increasingly favor domestic products that offer better value for money [6][7]. - The rise of domestic brands is not driven by nationalism but by a rationalist approach to consumption, leading to a K-shaped differentiation among domestic brands, where innovative brands thrive while traditional ones decline [12][13]. - The automotive industry is witnessing a significant shift towards domestic electric vehicles, with domestic brands capturing over 60% of the market share by 2024, driven by advancements in technology and consumer preferences [9][10]. Group 2: Changes in Consumer Behavior - New consumers are increasingly focused on self-satisfaction, leading to a redefinition of social interactions and consumption patterns, where personal happiness takes precedence over societal expectations [28][32]. - The tourism industry is experiencing a boom, with record-high participation rates, reflecting the desire for personal experiences despite economic constraints [30][32]. - The rise of the "single economy" and "宅经济" (home economy) is reshaping consumer demands, with a preference for personalized, convenient products and services [34][35]. Group 3: Channel Dynamics - Traditional retail channels are rapidly declining as new consumption models emerge, exemplified by the success of snack wholesale stores that offer lower prices and a wider variety of products [20][23]. - The shift towards instant retail is gaining momentum, with projections indicating that the market will exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2025, highlighting a significant change in consumer purchasing behavior [36][37]. - The article emphasizes the need for brands to adapt to the changing landscape, as traditional strategies become less effective in the face of evolving consumer preferences [27].

以下文章来源于电商天下 ，作者清清 电商天下 . 300 万电商社区平台。电商风向标，报道天下势 作者：清清 报道：电商天下 01 雪糕刺客，跌落神坛 钟薛高一定没有想到，当初痛击消费者钱包的子弹，会在五年之后正中自己的眉心。 近日 ，一则破产审查信息悄然登上热搜，让沉寂许久的钟薛高再次成为公众关注的焦点。 据天眼查 APP 显示，钟薛高旗下的钟茂 （上海） 食品科技有限公司被债权人上海安得列郎晴食品 贸易有限公司申请破产清算。 理由是" 无法清偿到期债务，且明显缺乏清偿能力 "。 ---------------------------------- 图源：36氪 如果不出意外，法院将在无有效异议情况下裁定受理 ， 这也意味着，钟薛高正式走到了破产的门 槛。 事实上， 在过去三年里，这个曾 被称为 "雪糕中的爱马仕"的网红品牌，一直在为一个逐渐崩解的 商业逻辑付出代价。 如今子公司破产，不过是这艘"高价游轮"触礁搁浅前的一声警笛。 2018年成立后，它凭借瓦片造型和"贵得有理"的市场定位成功出圈，主打产品动辄十几元、顶配 版更高达88元。 彼时，首年营收破亿的钟薛高， 很快 便 杀入天猫双11冰品类目榜首， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the contrasting performance of traditional high-end liquor brands like Moutai, which are struggling, versus the rising success of new consumer brands such as Pop Mart, Mixue Ice City, and Laopu Gold, which are thriving in the current market environment [1][18]. Group 1: Company Performance - Pop Mart has achieved a market valuation close to HKD 300 billion, driven by its successful LABUBU plush toy line and a comprehensive IP ecosystem that includes original IP incubation and a blind box mechanism [3][10]. - Mixue Ice City has over 46,000 stores globally, with annual revenue exceeding CNY 24.8 billion and net profit over CNY 4.4 billion, focusing on affordable pricing and quality [4][10]. - Laopu Gold reported sales of CNY 9.8 billion in 2024, a 166% year-on-year increase, with net profit rising by 254% to CNY 1.47 billion, targeting a younger demographic with culturally rich gold jewelry [5][10]. Group 2: Business Strategies - Pop Mart's strategy involves creating a complete IP incubation system and product lifecycle management, moving beyond just selling blind boxes to a broader range of products [7][14]. - Mixue Ice City emphasizes a strong supply chain and low-cost entry for franchisees, allowing for rapid expansion and high turnover in the beverage market [10][14]. - Laopu Gold differentiates itself by combining traditional craftsmanship with modern aesthetics, positioning itself in high-end shopping districts and appealing to a younger, fashion-conscious audience [15][16]. Group 3: Market Trends - The article notes a shift in consumer preferences, with younger consumers favoring products that offer emotional value and social currency, as seen in the success of the new consumer brands [9][18]. - The traditional high-end liquor market is experiencing a downturn, with brands like Moutai facing challenges due to changing consumer habits and a decline in the "banquet culture" [18][19]. - The new consumer brands are capitalizing on the demand for affordable, trendy, and culturally relevant products, indicating a significant transformation in the consumption landscape [1][19].