Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a significant increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index recovering the 3920-point mark, raising questions about the potential early start of the "spring market rally" [1] - Various research institutions have differing opinions on the spring market rally, with both Industrial Securities and Huatai Securities expressing optimism [1] - Industrial Securities highlighted potential signals for the rally, including the likelihood of interest rate cuts and improvements in key economic indicators such as PPI, PMI, M1, and social financing [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities anticipates that the spring market rally is promising, although the current phase is characterized by uncertainties in fundamental expectations and policy data [1] - Shenwan Hongyuan maintains a cautious outlook, suggesting that the spring rally may initially manifest in non-mainstream sectors, focusing on industry and policy themes [1] - Huachuang Securities emphasizes that the timing of the spring rally's initiation is contingent on the strength and pace of real estate policies [2] Group 3 - The focus of Huachuang Securities is on how the low point before the spring rally is formed, with current market adjustments attributed to pressures in the real estate sector [2] - Guangfa Strategy's team views the probability of a spring rally in Hong Kong stocks during the Christmas to Spring Festival period as high, citing an 80% historical probability of the Hang Seng Index rising during this timeframe [2] - Relevant ETFs include the CSI 300 ETF, which is expected to face less resistance in the spring rally due to its balanced style and focus on large-cap, cyclical industries [2]

证券研究报告|2025年12月22日 资配跨年展望 春季躁动，你想知道的一切 资产配置研究·深度报告 证券分析师：陈凯畅 021-60375429 chengkaichang@guosen.com.cn S0980523090002 证券分析师：王开 021-60933132 wangkai8@guosen.com.cn S0980521030001 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 01 全球资产 02 AH大势 03 风格 04 行业规律 05 技术实操 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 全球权益资产的"跨年行情"或"春季躁动"是否成立 核心观点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 • 全球资产的"跨年红包"与"春季行情"。1）季节效应上看，历年Q4全球主要市场股指涨幅更高，海外央行年末释放鸽派信号、外企 "岁末双薪"入市，圣诞假风偏提升驱动全球权益资产的"跨年红包"行情；2）大宗商品方面，Q1季节性偏强，黄金Q1强于Q4，银、 铜Q4强于Q1，布油四个季度表现逐季递减，受 OPEC 配额调整、冬季取暖和春季出行预期影响，一季度弹性偏大；3）全球资产如何共 振，中国"春季 ...

申万宏源策略 【申万宏源策略 | 一周回顾展望】非主战场的春季躁动 原创 阅读全文 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The unexpected decline in the US CPI for November is attributed to statistical "distortion" due to government shutdown disruptions, with a shorter data collection period and promotional season affecting price statistics [1] - The market's reaction to this "distorted" data is limited, with a high probability of maintaining interest rate pauses at 72.3% until further data is released in December [1] Group 2: Market Strategy - Historical trends indicate a "spring rally" in the A-share market, driven by monetary policy adjustments and significant economic data releases, suggesting a potential upward market movement [2] - The recent strong market performance may signal the beginning of the 2026 cross-year rally, with a focus on growth and consumer sectors for industry allocation [2] Group 3: Bond Market Observations - The secondary market for publicly listed REITs has seen a continuous decline, with a weighted REITs index return of -2.74% for the week [3] - The issuance of credit bonds has decreased, with industrial bonds accounting for 44.07% of the total issuance, reflecting a 12.44% week-on-week decline [4] Group 4: Industry Research - Computer Sector - The global tech investment enthusiasm remains strong, with a structural differentiation between "strong computing power" and "weak applications," suggesting a focus on AI applications in 2026 [7] - Three main investment lines are recommended: industry empowerment, overseas application, and edge AI, highlighting companies with strong industry know-how and high overseas revenue [7] Group 5: Non-Banking Sector Insights - In a low-interest-rate environment, equity assets have become crucial for insurance companies to enhance investment returns, with a record high of 9.3% equity asset ratio among five listed insurers [8] - The proposed regulatory framework aims to improve asset-liability management in insurance companies, enhancing long-term operational resilience [9] Group 6: Energy Sector Developments - In November, power generation increased by 2.7% year-on-year, with improvements in nuclear, solar, and wind energy growth rates [10] - The storage and hydrogen sectors are expected to see continued investment opportunities, driven by ongoing demand and new project launches [11] Group 7: Metal Industry Analysis - The copper market is expected to see price increases, supported by a tight supply-demand balance and rising commercial net long positions [12] - Investment recommendations include companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum, with a focus on potential risks from economic conditions and supply releases [12] Group 8: Chemical Industry Insights - The semiconductor materials sector is experiencing accelerated growth due to AI and data center demands, with a focus on high-purity materials [14] - Companies with technological advantages and strong customer ties in high-end materials are recommended for investment [14] Group 9: Medical Sector Developments - Ant Group's AI health assistant has rapidly gained popularity, transforming healthcare management through a digitalized approach [15] - Investment focus includes AI and home medical devices, offline health check-ups, and pharmaceutical retail [15] Group 10: Company-Specific Research - Taihe Co., Ltd. is recognized for its leading technology and capacity in core products, with significant profit growth expected from new product registrations [16] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 4.55 billion, 5.64 billion, and 6.83 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with a target price of 33.67 yuan [16] Group 11: Media Sector Insights - The advertising demand from internet clients remains strong, with potential revenue growth from new business initiatives [17] - Profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been slightly adjusted downwards, reflecting cautious optimism amid macroeconomic conditions [17] Group 12: TMT Sector Developments - Xiaomi's long-term AI strategy emphasizes substantial R&D investments, indicating a commitment to sustainable growth in AI applications [18] - The company is projected to achieve non-IFRS net profits of 426 billion, 438 billion, and 510 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [18] Group 13: Medical Device Sector Insights - The company is a leader in the interventional field, with significant revenue growth from overseas and peripheral products [19] - Profit forecasts have been adjusted due to potential policy impacts, with expected net profits of 6.33 billion, 7.05 billion, and 8.48 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [19]

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a fluctuating recovery pattern last week, with a divergence in index performance, characterized by a stronger Shanghai market compared to Shenzhen [7] - Under the expectation of "expanding domestic demand" policies and high dividend defensive attributes, consumption and non-bank financial sectors became the leading gainers, while previously active AI applications and hardware saw a pullback [7] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market decreased to 1.76 trillion yuan, indicating a decline in market activity [7] Group 2: Economic Indicators - November consumption showed a significant slowdown due to high base effects and policy exhaustion, while fixed asset investment continued to decline, and the real estate market remained sluggish [7] - External demand was noted as a rare bright spot, but there are expectations for monetary stimulus and fiscal pre-positioning to improve domestic economic conditions in early next year [7] Group 3: Global Economic Context - The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has led to a moderate recovery in market risk appetite, while the U.S. non-farm employment rate is expected to rise, and CPI is projected to be below market expectations [8] - Despite these indicators, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to take further directional actions in the short term, with expectations that it will not lower interest rates in January [8] Group 4: Industry Focus - The focus is shifting towards technology and manufacturing sectors, with a potential bottoming out of the recent global tech pullback [9] - Key factors for the future strength of the tech sector include improvements in large model capabilities and advancements in AI commercialization [9] - The manufacturing sector is expected to benefit from fiscal and monetary easing, with a focus on export-oriented manufacturing and real estate chains related to emerging markets [9]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The U.S. job market remains stable, with mild inflation, despite disruptions from government shutdowns, leading to only a slight increase in interest rate cut expectations [2][3] - Recent data indicates a marginal improvement in construction starts and an increase in government bond issuance, while retail sales have weakened due to subsidy reductions and weak demand during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival [3][4] - The market is currently in a phase of uncertainty, with expectations for a spring rally, but liquidity conditions remain cautious as institutional buying slows down [4][5] Group 2: Investment Strategies - It is recommended to position for the upcoming spring market rally by focusing on sectors such as AI, batteries, non-ferrous metals, and certain chemicals that are expected to improve [5][6] - The report suggests a cautious approach to small-cap stocks, which have shown weakness recently, while emphasizing the importance of sector rotation and focusing on undervalued segments [11] - The report highlights the potential for a rebound in oil prices due to supply disruptions, with a focus on industrial metals and agricultural products in the current investment strategy [6] Group 3: Company-Specific Analysis - China Shenhua's acquisition of assets from the State Energy Group is expected to enhance its EPS and resource base, with a total transaction value of approximately 133.6 billion yuan [19] - JD Group is facing short-term revenue pressure due to high base effects from previous subsidy actions, with projected revenue growth of only 0.4% in Q4 2025 [20] - The report indicates that the logistics sector, particularly express delivery, is experiencing a slowdown in volume growth, but companies with strong cash flow and cost advantages are expected to benefit [15][16] Group 4: Regulatory Developments - The new asset-liability management regulations for insurance companies are expected to enhance the industry's ability to manage risks associated with low interest rates and new accounting standards [16] - The EU's decision to delay anti-dumping measures on Chinese tires reflects ongoing trade dynamics, with potential implications for companies with overseas production capabilities [17]

Group 1 - The A-share market opened higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.26% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 1.01%. Key sectors showing gains include commercial aerospace, optical modules, and Hainan free trade, while new retail, liquor, and weight loss drug sectors experienced declines [1] - Citic Securities highlights increasing factors for RMB appreciation, suggesting investors adapt asset allocation in a strengthening RMB environment. Key focus areas include sectors benefiting from short-term memory effects, profit margin changes, and policy shifts, such as aviation, gas, and paper industries [1] - Citic Securities identifies three lines of focus for investment: short-term memory-driven sectors, industries with high import dependency on raw materials and low export dependency, and sectors benefiting from potential monetary policy easing or relaxed foreign investment restrictions [1] Group 2 - Citic Jiantou reports that the A-share market is expected to resonate upward with global markets, influenced by external factors like US AI bubble concerns and Japan's interest rate hikes. Key investment themes include dividend value, cyclical layouts, and thematic hotspots [2] - Key sectors to focus on include non-ferrous metals (silver, copper, tin, tungsten), high-dividend Hong Kong stocks, non-bank financials, AI (liquid cooling, optical communication), new energy (energy storage, solid-state batteries), innovative pharmaceuticals, and banks [2] - Thematic hotspots include Hainan (duty-free), nuclear power, and winter tourism [2] Group 3 -招商证券 anticipates the onset of a cross-year market trend leading into spring, with signals indicating a classic "cross-year-spring" market is developing. Increased central budget investments are expected to accelerate, providing stable incremental capital to the market [3] - The focus is on cyclical sectors, particularly industrial metals, non-bank financials, and hotel aviation. Key areas of interest include domestic computing power, commercial aerospace, and controllable nuclear fusion [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities indicates that the recent rebound in A-shares is primarily due to improved liquidity conditions both domestically and internationally, with significant net inflows from allocation-type funds represented by broad-based ETFs [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The improvement in liquidity is attributed to lower-than-expected U.S. inflation in November, which has raised expectations for interest rate cuts, alongside a dovish stance on interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan [1] - The current market is characterized by a phase of basic expectation disturbances and a confluence of policy and economic data voids [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Huatai Securities anticipates a potential spring rally in the market next year following prior adjustments, with catalysts for upward movement including foreign capital position recovery post-Christmas and the upcoming concentrated disclosure period for annual reports starting mid-January [1] - There is a possibility of a reserve requirement ratio cut in January, which could further support market conditions [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests continuing to position for the spring rally, focusing on sectors showing improvement such as AI supply chains, batteries, non-ferrous metals, certain chemicals, military industry, and consumer services [1] - Additionally, it recommends increasing exposure to thematic stocks and those benefiting from seasonal effects in the export chain [1]

（文章来源：第一财经） 开源证券指出，牛市仍大有可为。建议提前布局春季躁动，但在确认有效创新高前同样需要注意节奏。 整体布局思维仍建议围绕科技+PPI为主，但交易上可关注新的边际变化，其一为扩大内需的政策表述 不断强化下商贸、社服等消费出现局部热度，但整体的消费大beta或仍依赖数据的持续改善。其二为岁 末年初跨年强主题的机会，可重视商业航天与卫星产业链。 ...

人民财讯12月22日电，华泰证券研报称，上周A股探底回升，主因内外流动性环境改善，宽基ETF为代 表的配置型资金大幅净流入，美国11月通胀不及预期后降息预期升温和日央行鸽派加息也创造了有利的 外部环境。华泰证券认为，经过前期调整明年的春季躁动值得期待，但当前仍处于基本面预期扰动和政 策、经济数据空窗期交织阶段，后续行情斜率抬升的潜在催化包括圣诞节后外资仓位回补、1月中旬开 始的年报预告密集披露期及1月可能的降准。配置上，建议继续布局春季躁动，关注AI链、电池、有 色、部分化工品、军工、大众和服务消费等景气改善方向，此外可适当增配主题性品种和受益于季节性 效应的出口链。 ...