在地缘政治领域，尽管相关冲突地区各方已开启谈判进程，但由于各方在核心利益诉求和谈判立场上存在显著分歧，谈判前景尚不明朗。不过，谈判的启动 本身释放出通过对话解决争端的积极信号，一定程度上缓解了地缘政治紧张局势，这也对黄金的避险需求产生了抑制作用。 尽管消息面呈现出复杂多变的态势，但截至本交易周尾，黄金收盘价仍维持在3200美元/盎司上方。基于此部分市场参与者依然对黄金价格抱有乐观预期， 认为金价有望向3500美元/盎司靠拢，甚至突破这一关键价位。然而，正如秦氏金升此前分析所述，黄金价格前期的冲高主要是受到多重利好消息刺激，引 发市场集中性买盘推动。如今，随着避险情绪逐步退潮，金价出现回调属于市场的正常价值回归过程。 一、消息面分析 从宏观经济消息面维度来看，近期国际贸易局势的缓和显著削弱了黄金作为避险资产的属性。贸易双方通过积极磋商达成阶段性共识，使得全球投资者风险 偏好有所回升，黄金避险买盘随之减少。与此同时，美联储官员多次强调在货币政策调整上保持谨慎态度，明确表示短期内不急于降息，这些因素共同对黄 金价格形成了有力压制。 在日线级别上，黄金价格自3500美元/盎司高点开启的ABC三浪下跌趋势特征十分明显。 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The gold market experienced a gap down on Monday and continued to decline, showing alternating bearish and bullish patterns, ultimately closing the week with a bearish candle featuring a long lower shadow [1] - U.S. April CPI data showed a mild performance, leading to a decrease in inflation expectations and a stronger dollar, which pressured gold prices. The April PPI unexpectedly fell by 0.5%, while retail sales growth dropped significantly from 1.7% in March to 0.1%, indicating increased economic slowdown pressures [2] - Geopolitical risks, particularly the stalemate in Russia-Ukraine peace talks and uncertainties surrounding U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, have heightened demand for gold as a safe haven [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell by 11 basis points to 4.435%, increasing market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, with a 75.4% probability for a September cut, providing some support for gold prices [2] - The recent easing of trade tensions between the U.S. and China, with mutual tariff cancellations, has temporarily alleviated trade friction, impacting market sentiment [4] Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged challenges facing the U.S. economy and the Fed, indicating potential volatility in future inflation. Although he did not elaborate on rate cut expectations, the recent CPI data has intensified pressure on the Fed to lower rates [5] - Wall Street's major banks have postponed their expectations for a Fed rate cut due to easing trade tensions, complicating the impact on gold prices [5] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The gold market is currently in a corrective phase, having encountered strong resistance at the 3500 level. The recent price action suggests that gold may have entered a fourth wave adjustment structure [9] - A breakdown below the 3202 support level confirmed the start of a C-wave decline, with a potential short-term rebound observed near the 3120 level. The focus will be on whether gold can stabilize above 3120 to initiate a rebound [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The forum highlighted the positive changes in US-China trade negotiations, emphasizing the importance of bilateral talks and the potential for a more stable global economic environment [1][2]. Group 1: US-China Trade Relations - Michael Spence noted that the US accounts for 25% of global GDP, with 13% of its imports coming from China and 15% of China's exports going to the US, indicating significant interdependence [1]. - The ongoing trade war has negatively impacted consumer confidence in the US, which could lead to disastrous effects on the global economy if not addressed [1]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Role - The Federal Reserve's primary tasks include managing employment and inflation, with current inflation pressures being influenced by supply and demand dynamics rather than just tariff impacts [2]. - Spence pointed out that while capital expenditures and tourism are declining, demand remains relatively stable, which could still contribute to inflationary pressures [2]. Group 3: Future of Global Trade System - Three potential scenarios for the future of the global trade system were discussed: a fragmented approach where countries act independently, a scenario where major powers exert their influence, and the most likely scenario where a multilateral system is supported by Europe, China, and other emerging markets [2]. - Despite the current US government's anti-multilateral stance, Spence believes that a multilateral system could persist and even thrive without the US, with the possibility of the US rejoining in the future [2].

2025年5月17日上午，2025清华五道口全球金融论坛在广东省深圳市盛大开幕。 2001年诺贝尔经济学奖得主迈克尔·斯宾塞通过视频连线形式发表主旨演讲。他指 出，全球贸易体系方面，贸易战是互相伤害，必须纠正，未来最有可能的情形是建 立多边体系，欧洲、中国及其他主要新兴经济体支持建立相对合理、可行的多边体 系。从货币政策来看，美联储的货币政策是当前不确定性的来源之一。美联储的首 要任务是稳定就业、管理好通货膨胀，其货币政策会根据不同的情况进行反应，这 是当前不确定的来源。技术方面，中美之间差距在迅速缩小，De epSe ek等一些大模 型在中国出现，未来人工智能（AI）的包容性、普惠性越来越强。 图为迈克尔·斯宾塞 迈克尔·斯宾塞： 非常感谢，很高兴见到各位，也希望下一次会议我可以在现场参加。 提问： 我们是在深圳召开本次会议，聚焦全球经济金融系统创新等话题。想先请教您一个关于贸易战 的问题。中美部分关税在90天内临时暂停执行，我们看到全球股市都在回升，这一举措得到全球市场的 欢迎。这是一个大的进步，但这仅仅是一个开始。我猜测所有人心里都有一些疑问：最差和最好的状况 会是怎样的？未来我们的方向到底是什么？所以 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the gold market is experiencing a complex situation influenced by weak U.S. economic data, rising recession risks, and geopolitical tensions [1][2] - U.S. economic indicators for April showed a significant decline, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) falling by 0.5%, retail sales growth dropping from 1.7% in March to 0.1%, and manufacturing output decreasing by 0.4% [1] - The gold price has broken below the key support level of $3200 per ounce, with a potential downward target of around $2900 per ounce, indicating a continuation of the bearish trend [2] Group 2 - Technical analysis suggests that the recent price movements are characterized as a technical correction rather than a trend reversal, with a significant resistance level at $3500 per ounce [2] - The current price rebound around $3160 is viewed as a short-term opportunity, with specific trading strategies recommended for both buying on dips and selling on rebounds [4] - The articles emphasize the importance of monitoring upcoming economic indicators, such as the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and the import price index, as well as geopolitical developments related to the Russia-Ukraine negotiations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a decrease in holdings to 927.62 tons, down by 8.89 tons from the previous trading day, amid fluctuating gold prices influenced by economic data and geopolitical tensions [6]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of May 15, the total holdings of SPDR Gold Trust stand at 927.62 tons [6]. - The holdings decreased by 8.89 tons compared to the previous trading day [6]. Group 2: Gold Price Movements - On May 15, spot gold prices fell to a low of $3120.34 per ounce, marking a drop of over 10% from the historical high of $3500 per ounce [6]. - Gold prices rebounded to close at $3239.61 per ounce, an increase of $62.48 or 1.97% after initially dropping [6]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) unexpectedly fell by 0.5% in April, the largest decline in five years, indicating that businesses absorbed some of the impacts of rising tariffs [6]. - Retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.1% in April, suggesting consumers are beginning to cut back on spending amid rising prices and tariff concerns [6]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Analysts suggest that poor U.S. economic data has led to a decline in the dollar, supporting a rebound in gold prices [7]. - The geopolitical situation, particularly the lack of progress in peace negotiations involving Russia, is seen as favorable for gold [7]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that changes in economic conditions may lead to higher long-term interest rates, which could impact gold prices [7]. Group 5: Technical Analysis - Despite recovering above the $3200 mark, technical indicators remain negative, suggesting potential further declines in gold prices [7]. - Key support levels are identified at $3100 and $3060, with resistance at $3265 and $3300 [8].

截至16日下午收盘，中证商品期货价格指数收报1353.87点，较前一交易日下跌13.57点，跌幅0.99%； 中证商品期货指数收报1874.36点，较前一交易日下跌18.09点，跌幅0.96%。 金银小幅反弹供应收缩支撑硅铁小幅收涨 情绪转弱背景下，国内商品市场16日普遍走弱，尾盘仅硅铁、金银、沥青等品种小幅收涨。 在隔夜海外贵金属大幅反弹的带动下，国内金银16日小幅跟涨，但汇率因素和当日亚洲时段海外金银价 格回落，使得沪金沪银涨幅受限。短期内，避险需求和美联储货币政策走向的博弈，成为影响贵金属波 动的重要因素。但避险情绪减弱、美联储在降息上的谨慎态度，均将在短期内继续限制贵金属的反弹空 间。 虽然黑色系商品整体走弱，但硅铁供应收缩利多仍在发酵，这支撑硅铁期价16日小幅收涨0.92%，成为 当日领涨品种。Mysteel公布的数据显示，截至5月15日当周，全国187家独立锰硅企业和136家独立硅铁 企业开工率均环比下滑，日均产量不同程度下降，这表明硅铁产区减产仍在持续，进而有利于缓解铁合 金供应压力。不过，钢厂高炉开工率环比下降，铁水产量高位回落，市场对硅锰供需仍偏宽松的担忧不 减，或仍将构成硅锰价格进一步走高 ...

4月新增社会融资规模1.16万亿元，新增人民币贷款2800亿元。4月为传统信贷小月，叠加今年一季度信 贷开门红有所透支、关税摩擦下海外不确定性较大、内部融资需求尚未企稳，信贷数据出现季节性回落 是正常现象。但政府债大量发行带动社融增速回升，某种程度上显示金融支持实体有力，政策发力的结 构性特征明显。整体看，金融数据增量信息不多，国内基本面驱动偏弱。 （三）美国通胀、零售趋弱，美联储货币政策保持"等待"，整体海外因素影响不大。 一、本周市场概况：中美关系缓和利好落地，股市进入轮动交易期 5月12日-5月16日期间，宽基指数整体保持震荡，全市场成交量变化不大，显示多数场外资金情绪相对 谨慎，存量资金交易导致市场进入轮动交易期。周初，中美关系缓和利好逐步落地，市场热度偏高，但 随着中美联合声明公布，短期利好落地后，考虑到股市对利好消化相对充分，市场进入震荡区间。结构 上看，行业层面驱动较强，各个风格均有结构性机会，但股市热点延续性不强，板块轮动较快，资金博 弈特征明显。 二、影响本周市场的主要因素为： （一）中美达成联合声明，关系边际缓和对市场情绪有支撑。 经过本次会谈，今年美国对中国商品累计加征关税税率为30%， ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.4% at 3367.46 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.07% and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.19% [1] - A-shares had a total trading volume of 1.12 trillion yuan, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous day [1] - The automotive and machinery sectors performed well, while beauty care, non-bank financials, and food and beverage sectors experienced significant pullbacks [1] Gold Market Insights - Gold prices stabilized after a recent decline, with the Gold ETF (518800) rising by 1.65% [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the U.S. may be entering a new phase of more frequent supply shocks and unstable inflation, which could boost market expectations for future interest rate cuts, benefiting gold prices [2] - The latest U.S. inflation data showed a year-on-year CPI decrease to 2.3% in April, down from the previous value and below expectations [2] - The core CPI remained stable at 2.8%, indicating a mixed inflation outlook [2] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine talks, may further pressure gold prices, but long-term factors like monetary expansion and global de-dollarization trends could support gold demand [3] Automotive Sector Performance - The automotive sector showed strong performance, with the Automotive ETF (516110) increasing by 1.77% [4] - Domestic economic data indicated a year-on-year CPI of -0.1% in April, reflecting ongoing demand issues despite some positive influences [4] - April saw automotive production and sales of 2.619 million and 2.590 million units, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.9% and 9.8% [5] - Cumulative production and sales from January to April reached 10.175 million and 10.060 million units, marking increases of 12.9% and 10.8% year-on-year [5] - The automotive sector's recovery is expected to be driven primarily by domestic demand, with potential short-term boosts from U.S.-China trade negotiations [5]

操作策略： 1.黄金建议回调3200-3195区域做多，止损在3187，目标看3220-3240 2.黄金建议反弹3225-3230区域做空，止损在3238，目标看3215-3200 文章没有太多华丽的语言与鸡汤，一直如此，我相信每一位读者缺乏的不是鸡汤，而是实实在在的分析与强大的理论，我是翁富 豪老师，最后祝大家交易愉快。免责申明:以上纯属个人观点分享，不构成操作建议，投资有风险，盈亏自负。 周四（5月15日）黄金市场呈现剧烈波动行情，现货黄金价格在亚市早盘阶段快速下探至3120.64美元/盎司（创4月10日以来新 低），随后多头力量展开强势反扑，推动金价强势反弹并最终收报3239.58美元/盎司，日内涨幅达1.97%，振幅突破100美元。周 五（5月16日）亚市早盘，金价延续涨势进一步上攻，盘中突破3250美元/盎司关口至3252.06美元/盎司。本轮反弹主要受两大因 素驱动：其一，俄乌和谈进程生变，双方确认缺席原定谈判，市场对地缘政治风险快速缓和的预期落空，避险资金回流黄金市 场；其二，美国最新经济数据表现不及预期，市场对美联储货币政策转向的预期升温，美债收益率显著下行叠加美元指数走弱， 为贵金属提供上 ...