1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic economic fundamentals have weakened slightly, suppressing the market's bullish sentiment. After the previous market recovery following the easing of the tariff war, the index faces significant pressure at the April high. With the market currently in a policy vacuum and lacking trading volume support, the index is expected to fluctuate weakly. Strategically, it is recommended to go short lightly on rallies in single - sided trading, and construct bear spreads for corresponding option varieties [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Prices - IF, IC, IH, and IM main and sub - main contracts all declined. For example, the IF main contract (2506) was at 3805.0, down 7.8; the IC main contract (2506) was at 5568.0, down 14.6 [2] 3.2 Futures Price Spreads - All spreads such as IF - IH, IC - IF, IM - IC, etc. for the current month contracts declined, except for the spreads between different quarters of some contracts which showed an increase [2] 3.3 Futures Net Positions - The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IC, and IM decreased, while the net positions of the top 20 in IH increased [2] 3.4 Spot Prices - The spot prices of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all declined, and the basis of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM showed different trends [2] 3.5 Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume and margin trading balance increased, while north - bound trading volume decreased. The proportion of rising stocks decreased, and Shibor declined [2] 3.6 Option Data - The closing price of the IO at - the - money call option decreased, and its implied volatility increased; the closing price of the IO at - the - money put option increased, and its implied volatility decreased [2] 3.7 Market Strength and Weakness Analysis - In the Wind market strength and weakness analysis, the overall A - share and technical indicators declined, while the capital indicator increased [2] 3.8 Key Data to Watch - Key data to watch include the minutes of the Fed's May monetary policy meeting on May 29, US April PCE and core PCE on May 30, and China's May official manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMI on May 31 [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report Core Views - **Stock Index**: The US consumer confidence in May saw the largest increase in four years. Trump rarely praised the EU and was encouraged by the acceleration of trade negotiations. Japan's Ministry of Finance rarely "surveyed" the bond market and considered reducing the issuance of ultra - long bonds, leading to a violent rebound in Japanese bonds. In the domestic market, the rotation is fast, the main driving force of the market is weak, and the trading volume is insufficient. The stock index may fluctuate weakly [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On Tuesday, without obvious negative news, the bond market yields rose by about 1bp across the board, with the long - end adjustment larger than the medium - and short - end. From the institutional net subscription desensitization data, it seems that pure bond funds experienced a large - scale redemption on Tuesday. The last similar redemption was in mid - March when banks began to cash in floating profits. There were also rumors in the market that commercial banks' motivation to cash in floating profits at the end of June was stronger than before. From the recent market micro - trends, treasury bonds performed weakly relative to policy financial bonds, and the bond - swap basis widened slightly, indicating a local supply - demand "imbalance" in the market. When "limited short - term downward space" and "being bullish but not buying" become market consensus, the impact of specific types of institutional trading behaviors on the market is magnified in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Review**: The main contract futures of CSI 300 index fell 0.51%, that of SSE 50 index fell 0.51%, that of CSI 500 index fell 0.24%, and that of CSI 1000 index fell 0.1% [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index shows that it may fluctuate weakly and there is an adjustment risk [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Adopt a defensive stance and wait and see [2]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Review**: The 10 - year main contract fell 0.11%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.03%, the 30 - year main contract fell 0.26%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.02% [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator of the T main contract shows that it will fluctuate and may rebound [10]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Bullish in the short term [4]. 4. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (Yuan/Contract) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 05 - 27 | CSI 300 Continuous Contract | 3809.20 | - 0.51 | 54529 | 140116 | | 2025 - 05 - 27 | SSE 50 Continuous Contract | 2668.60 | - 0.51 | 28167 | 51671 | | 2025 - 05 - 27 | CSI 500 Continuous Contract | 5578.00 | - 0.24 | 52001 | 109673 | | 2025 - 05 - 27 | CSI 1000 Continuous Contract | 5915.00 | - 0.10 | 140778 | 186517 | | 2025 - 05 - 27 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous Contract | 108.73 | - 0.11 | 58575 | 165848 | | 2025 - 05 - 27 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous Contract | 106.03 | - 0.03 | 43924 | 128934 | | 2025 - 05 - 27 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous Contract | 119.46 | - 0.26 | 62401 | 92091 | | 2025 - 05 - 27 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous Contract | 102.41 | - 0.02 | 32028 | 104798 | [12]

品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 5 月 28日） 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 区间震荡 | 政策端利好预期构成较强支撑 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡小幅回调。股市全市场成交额 10241 亿元，较上日缩量 97 亿元。目前 股市成交金额稳定在 1 万亿元附近，说明目前市场情绪处于偏中性状态 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The domestic economic fundamentals have weakened slightly, suppressing market enthusiasm for long - positions. After the previous market recovery following the easing of the tariff war, the index faces significant upward pressure after reaching the level of early April. Currently in a policy vacuum period, the market will experience rapid style rotation in the short term, lack an obvious main line, and is expected to maintain a volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk - IF main contract (2506) at 3879.6, down 2.0; IH main contract (2506) at 2715.4, up 2.6. IF sub - main contract (2509) at 3807.6, down 0.8; IH sub - main contract (2509) at 2677.2, up 1.8. IC main contract (2506) at 5614.8, down 39.6; IC sub - main contract (2509) at 5426.2, down 30.0. IM main contract (2506) at 5950.0, down 48.6; IM sub - main contract (2509) at 5708.2, down 46.8 [2]. - Various spreads such as IF - IH, IC - IF, etc. have different changes, with most showing a downward trend [2]. - Differences between quarterly and current contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM have different upward or downward trends [2]. Futures Position - IF top 20 net position is - 30,029.00, up 48.0; IH top 20 net position is - 10,765.00, down 37.0. IC top 20 net position is - 11,129.00, down 403.0; IM top 20 net position is - 31,392.00, down 988.0 [2]. Spot Price - CSI 300 at 3913.87, down 2.5; IF main contract basis at - 34.3, up 0.9. SSE 50 at 2733.63, up 5.2; IH main contract basis at - 18.2, down 2.4. CSI 500 at 5703.28, down 54.6; IC main contract basis at - 88.5, up 13.8. CSI 1000 at 6066.10, down 66.1; IM main contract basis at - 116.1, up 15.5 [2]. Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume (daily, billion yuan) at 10,241.23, down 97.50. Margin trading balance (previous trading day, billion yuan) at 18,058.58, up 45.23. North - bound trading volume (previous trading day, billion yuan) at 1224.22, down 138.00. Repurchase (maturity volume, operation volume, billion yuan) at - 3570.0, up 4480.0. Main funds (yesterday, today, billion yuan) at - 120.26 and - 246.33 respectively [2]. - The proportion of rising stocks (daily, %) at 48.72, down 21.40. Shibor (daily, %) at 1.452, down 0.054. IO at - the - money call option closing price (2506) at 37.00, down 10.60; IO at - the - money call option implied volatility (%) at 13.40, up 0.10. IO at - the - money put option closing price (2506) at 76.60, up 12.60; IO at - the - money put option implied volatility (%) at 13.67, up 0.37. CSI 300 index 20 - day volatility (%) at 9.72, up 0.24. Volume PCR (%) at 70.50, down 9.56; Position PCR (%) at 68.31, down 1.62 [2]. Wind Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - All A - shares at 4.70, down 1.80; Technical aspect at 4.90, down 2.10; Capital aspect at 4.50, down 1.40 [2]. Industry News - From January to April, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of domestic industrial enterprise profits above designated size accelerated further compared with the previous month, but the operating profit margin declined due to rising operating costs. Although industrial enterprise profits increased, the decline in profit margin had a certain negative impact on market sentiment. In April, industrial added value, fixed - asset investment, and social retail sales of enterprises above designated size all declined compared with the previous values. The domestic economy faces certain pressure under tariff shocks [2]. Key Events to Watch - May 28, 10:00: New Zealand central bank interest rate decision. - May 29, 2:00: Minutes of the Federal Reserve's May monetary policy meeting. - May 30, 20:30: US April PCE and core PCE. - May 31, 9:30: China's May official manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and comprehensive PMI [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term and medium - term views of the stock index futures are mainly range - bound. The intraday view is slightly bullish. The upward and downward space of the stock index is limited in the short term [1][4]. - The domestic policy side's positive expectations strongly support the stock index, limiting its downward space. However, external risks and weak domestic demand restrict the upward momentum of the stock index [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2506, the short - term view is sideways, the medium - term view is sideways, and the intraday view is slightly bullish. The overall view is range - bound, supported by positive policy expectations [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is slightly bullish, the medium - term view is sideways, and the reference view is range - bound. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is stable at around 1 trillion yuan, indicating a cautious and optimistic market sentiment. The stock index has limited upward and downward driving forces. The domestic policy side provides strong support, while external risks and weak domestic demand restrict the upward momentum. Technically, the stock index is near the gap position in early April [4].

金十期货5月26日讯，沪深300股指期货（IF）主力合约跌0.61%，上证50股指期货（IH）主力合约跌 0.46%，中证500股指期货（IC）主力合约涨0.33%，中证1000股指期货（IM）主力合约涨0.49%。 股指期货午盘收盘 ...

股指期货市场周报 华金期货 研究院 2025/5/26 一、股指期货宏观及市场展望 • 周度宏观及消息面： • 国内消息：六大国有银行集体下调利率，一年期定存首次跌破1%，活期利率仅0.05%。近一周 以来，十余家中小银行紧随大行降息步伐，将最高定存利率压至1.7%以下。 3 • 海外消息：美国总统特朗普威胁称，将自6月1日起对进口自欧盟的商品征收50%关税，因为欧 盟在贸易方面"很难打交道"。 • 上周沪深300指数冲高回落，成交下降。资金方面，近5个交易日主力资金净流出1282亿元，融 资资金下降56亿元；宏观层面，国内经济弱势企稳，财政政策、货币政策保持宽松；风险方面， 关注关税政策、海外经济通胀、地缘政治冲突及美联储相关政策。 • 技术上，沪深300指数位于40均线上方，短期成交略降，中长期估值位于中低位。观点方面，短 期指数震荡，投资者逢低做多。 二、股指期货行情及基差 3 股指期货 上周收盘 本周收盘 周涨幅 周成交量 周持仓量 成交量/持仓量 IF2506 3846 3846.2 0.01% 288876 152612 1.89 IH2506 2695.2 2693 -0.08% 150660 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On Friday, the A - share market saw an intraday decline. Financial technology and gaming concept stocks had significant pull - backs, while the automotive, gold, and medical sectors led the gains. The overall index is expected to oscillate. With the LPR and deposit rates cut and three - quarters of A - share listed companies achieving profitability in the 2024 annual reports, the market lacks a short - term main line and will mainly move in an oscillatory manner [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Index Futures Quotes - IH2506 had a contract price of 2,693.00, a decline of 0.82%, and a volume of 39,517. It was at a discount of 18.85 points to the index. - IF2506 had a contract price of 3,846.20, a decline of 0.88%, and a volume of 78,281. It was at a discount of 36.07 points. - IC2506 had a contract price of 5,561.80, a decline of 0.95%, and a volume of 67,871. It was at a discount of 91.24 points. - IM2506 had a contract price of 5,872.00, a decline of 1.30%, and a volume of 167,101. It was at a discount of 117.68 points [3]. 3.1.2 Basis and Spread - The document shows the historical basis and spread data of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 50 and CSI 500 index futures from 2021 to 2025, which can be used to analyze the price relationship between different contracts and the underlying index [5][8]. 3.2 Spot Market 3.2.1 Important Index Daily Returns - Most important indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shanghai 50, and CSI 300 showed declines on the day, with the CSI 1000 having a relatively large decline of 1.30% [11]. 3.2.2 Style Index Daily Returns - Different style indices, including the 300 Cycle, 300 Non - Cycle, and low - P/E ratio indices, also showed varying degrees of decline [14]. 3.2.3 Industry Index Daily Returns - Industries such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, and the automotive industry had positive returns, while most industries like media and communication had negative returns [17][18]. 3.3 Market Structure 3.3.1 AH - Share Premium - The document shows the historical data of the Hang Seng AH Premium Index from August 2024 to May 2025, reflecting the price difference between A - shares and H - shares [21]. 3.3.2 Price - to - Earnings Ratio (PE) and Price - to - Book Ratio (PB) - It presents the historical PE and PB data of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext indices, which helps in analyzing the valuation levels of different indices [24][26]. 3.4 Market Fundamentals 3.4.1 Stock Market Fund Inflows - The document shows the historical data of A - share fund net inflows and the CSI 300 index from May 2021 to May 2025, which can be used to analyze the relationship between market funds and the index [28]. 3.4.2 Margin Trading Balance - It shows the historical data of margin trading balance and the CSI 300 index from May 2021 to April 2025, reflecting the impact of margin trading on the market [30]. 3.4.3 Northbound Capital Flows - It presents the historical data of northbound capital net inflows from May 2021 to August 2024, which can be used to analyze the impact of foreign capital on the A - share market [32]. 3.4.4 Share Unlockings No detailed data analysis is provided, only the topic is mentioned [43]. 3.4.5 Funding Costs - It shows the historical data of SHIBOR overnight, one - week, and two - week rates from August 2024 to May 2025, reflecting the short - term funding costs in the market [47]. 3.5 Market Sentiment 3.5.1 Trading Activity - It presents the historical turnover rate data of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext indices, which can be used to analyze market trading activity [50][53]. 3.5.2 Public - Offering Hybrid Fund Positions No detailed data analysis is provided, only the topic is mentioned [55]. 3.6 Other Indicators 3.6.1 Dividend Yield and Treasury Yield - It shows the historical data of the dividend yields of the CSI 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices and the 10 - year Treasury yield from January 2015 to January 2025 [59]. 3.6.2 RMB Exchange Rate - It presents the historical data of the US dollar - RMB exchange rate from May 2021 to May 2025, which can be used to analyze the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the market [61]. 3.6.3 New Account Openings and Index Tracking No detailed data analysis is provided, only the topic is mentioned [62]. 3.6.4 Newly Established Fund Sizes - It mentions the changes in the newly established sizes of stock - type, hybrid, and bond - type funds, but no detailed data analysis is provided [64][66][68].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the impact of shrinking trading volume, the stock index fluctuated weakly. It is recommended to have long positions in 182506 and IP2506, and also allocate more to IM2506 because of its relatively high annualized basis rate [5]. - The joint statement between China and the US, domestic economic data improvement, policy support, capital market reforms, and "national team" actions are important factors supporting the market [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Performance - Domestic indices continued to fluctuate weakly this week, while US stocks fell significantly. By May 23, 2025, the NASDAQ fell 2.47%, the S&P 500 fell 2.61%, the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.65%, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.57%, the CSI 1000 fell 1.23%, the SSE 50 fell 0.18%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.88%, and the STAR 50 fell 1.47%. The performance of Shenwan's primary 31 industry indices was divergent, with sectors such as medicine, biology, non - ferrous metals, and automobiles rising, and sectors such as computers, machinery, and electronics falling [13][14]. Liquidity - In April, the growth rate of social financing increased significantly, and the growth rate of M2 rebounded. The net MLF investment in April was 50 billion yuan. The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds was around 1.65%. The growth rate of social financing stock was 8.7% year - on - year, a 0.3% increase from the previous month. More than 80% of the 1.16 trillion yuan increase in social financing came from new government bond financing. The M2 growth rate rebounded significantly, the M1 growth rate declined month - on - month, and the M1 - M2 gap widened to - 6.5%, indicating insufficient economic vitality [24]. Trading Data and Sentiment - The trading volume of the two markets continued to decline to around one trillion yuan. The number of new stock account openings in January was 1.57 million, in February was 2.83 million, in March was 3.06 million, and in April it dropped to 1.92 million [27][37]. Index Valuation - As of May 23, 2025, the latest PE of the Shanghai Composite Index was 14.48, with a percentile of 62.56, and the latest PE of the All - A Index was 18.95, with a percentile of 59.90. Among the major stock indices, the valuation percentile ranking was CSI 500 < CSI 1000 < SSE 300 < SSE 50 [53]. Index Industry Weights (as of December 31, 2024) - In the SSE 50, the weights of banks, food and beverage, and non - bank finance were relatively high, at 19.4%, 16.57%, and 13.07% respectively, and the electronics sector became the fourth - largest weighted industry. - The weights of the SSE 300 were relatively dispersed, with the top three weighted industries being banks, non - bank finance, and electronics. - The top three weighted industries of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 were exactly the same, namely electronics, medicine and biology, and power equipment, but the electronics industry in the CSI 1000 had a higher weight [54].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 5 月 23 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 区间震荡 | 政策端利好预期构成较强支撑 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1/2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 观点参考 获 取 每 日 期 货 观 点 推 送 扫码关注宝城期货官方微信·期货咨询尽在掌握 服 务 国 家 走向世界 知行合一 专业敬业 诚 信 ...