智通财经6月13日电，美国密歇根大学调查的未来一年通胀预期从6.6%降至5.1%，市场预期为6.4%。 ...

Core Insights - US one-year inflation expectations decreased from 6.6% last month to 5.1% this month, marking a three-month low [1] - Long-term inflation expectations fell for the second consecutive month, dropping from 4.2% in May to 4.1% [1] - Consumer concerns regarding the potential impact of tariffs on future inflation have eased in June [1] Inflation Expectations - The one-year inflation rate expectation is now at 5.1%, down from 6.6% [1] - Long-term inflation expectations are at 4.1%, down from 4.2% [1] - Both indices represent the lowest levels in three months [1] Consumer Sentiment - There is a general belief that trade policies may still lead to inflation increases over the next year, despite the easing of tariff concerns [1]

美国6月密歇根大学1年通胀预期初值 5.1，预期 6.4，前值 6.6。 ...

【美国6月密歇根大学1年通胀预期创2001年10月以来最大环比降幅】美国6月密歇根大学消费者信心指 数初值 60.5，创2024年1月以来最大升幅，预期 53.6，前值 52.2。 美国6月密歇根大学5年通胀预期初值 4.1%，预期 4.1%，前值 4.2%。 美国6月密歇根大学1年通胀预期初值 5.1%，预期 6.4%，前值 6.6%。 ...

提醒：北京时间22:00，将公布美国6月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值、美国6月密歇根大学1年通胀预 期初值、美国6月密歇根大学5年通胀预期初值。 ...

Group 1 - Israel launched a large-scale attack on Iran, targeting nuclear facilities and missile factories, which may lead to a prolonged operation to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons [1] - The attack caused market turmoil, with U.S. stock index futures declining, oil prices surging, gold prices rising, and the U.S. dollar index strengthening [1] - Analysts noted that the geopolitical conflict could lead to increased inflation expectations, impacting fixed income markets and potentially pushing the Federal Reserve towards a more hawkish stance [1][2] Group 2 - The conflict has led to a rebound in the U.S. dollar, while safe-haven assets like the Swiss franc, Japanese yen, and gold have also strengthened [2] - The global stock market, which has seen a 30% increase in the MSCI global index this year, may face further declines as the conflict acts as a catalyst for price corrections [2] - Defensive sectors such as utilities, energy stocks, and defense companies are expected to perform well due to concerns over potential supply disruptions in the oil market [2] Group 3 - The scale and impact of the attack remain unclear, leading to limited market volatility despite a rush into safe-haven assets [3] - The uncertainty surrounding the geopolitical conflict adds to the fragile market sentiment, with the potential for either a quick de-escalation or an escalation that threatens oil transport routes [3]

英国央行调查：公众对明年到两年期间的通胀预期维持在3.2%，未发生变化。 ...

英国央行调查：英国公众对五年后通胀预期为3.6%。 ...

证券研究报告 宽观 关税"脉冲"引起贸易量波动 |关税 影响高频跟踪(6月12日) 华泰研究 2025年6月12日|中国内地 动态点评 概览:5月以来关税"脉冲"轨迹初步显现,贸易量上,高频数据显示5月 美国进口偏弱,预计6月有所修复,但或难回到一季度的较高水平;通胀上, 微观数据显示 5月底以来价格小幅上行,关税的价格压力仍在传导;企业信 心上,5月有所修复但仍处低位,后续修复速率或相对缓慢。总体来看,虽 然"美丽大法案"或于7月通过,带来新一轮财政扩张,美国经济大概率避 免陷入衰退,但7月9日后的贸易走势值得观察。 贸易高频跟踪显示,5月美国进口偏弱,预计6月将有所回升。5月中美关 税降级以来,运价明显回升,显示贸易需求有所升温。但集装箱数据显示, 5月美国自全球进口整体偏弱,自中国进口显著回落。但自越南等国家进口 维持较高水平,背后是关税以及贸易分流的影响(图表 3-6)。6月以来数据 显示. 6月中下旬美国进口或有所回升:6月以来,中国发往美国的集装箱 数量低位回升,考虑到中国到美国海运需要 2-4周,对应6月中下旬美国自 中国进口的回升:6月中下旬洛杉矶港到港量同比增速预测也明显回升,佐 证上述判断 ...

方霁 S0630523060001 fangji@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 联系人： 董经纬 djwei@longone.com.cn 联系人： 李嘉豪 lijiah@longone.com.cn [Table_Reportdate] 2025年06月13日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250613 重点推荐 [table_summary] ➢ 1.关税冲击尚未显现，需求端预期或成关键——海外观察：美国2025年5月CPI数据 ➢ 2.制冷剂行业延续高景气——氟化工行业月报 ➢ 3.己二酸短期基本面有望向好，关注一体化龙头企业——基础化工行业简评 ➢ 1.央行、国家外汇局联合印发《关于金融支持福建探索海峡两岸融合发展新路 建设两岸融 合发展示范区的若干措施》 ➢ 2.国务院总理李强会见欧洲中央银行行长拉加德 ➢ 3.特朗普准备签署美英贸易协议的关键部分 ➢ 4.美国公布5月PPI数据 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW ...