Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting government bonds to trade in a range [1] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal, range trading for rebar, and waiting and seeing for glass [1] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Waiting and seeing or holding long positions lightly and rolling for copper; strengthening waiting and seeing for aluminum; waiting and seeing for nickel; range trading or taking profit on previous long positions for tin; range trading for gold; bullish trend for silver; range - bound oscillation for lithium carbonate [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Range trading for PVC, caustic soda, benzene, rubber, urea, methanol; weak oscillation for polyolefins; waiting and seeing for soda ash [1] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Oscillatory adjustment for cotton and cotton yarn; weak oscillation for apples and jujubes [1] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Short - selling opportunities on rebounds for hogs; not advisable to chase short positions in the short term for eggs; being cautious about chasing high prices and waiting for rebounds to hedge at high prices for corn; shorting on rallies for soybean meal; weak oscillation for rapeseed oil, limited rebounds for soybean oil and palm oil [1] Core Views - Geopolitical disturbances are increasing, which strengthens the precious metals sector. Stock indices may trade in a range, and government bonds are expected to oscillate. The coal market has a wait - and - see sentiment due to weak fundamentals. Rebar is in a short - term range - bound state. Glass is expected to oscillate weakly. Copper is affected by the game between macro - level support and weak fundamentals. Aluminum may continue high - level adjustments. Nickel is affected by various factors and is recommended to be observed. Tin supply is tight, and it is recommended for range trading. Silver and gold are affected by geopolitical and economic factors, with their medium - term price centers moving up. Lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate strongly. PVC may have bottomed out. Caustic soda has short - term delivery pressure. Benzene styrene has a high valuation and is recommended to be cautious about chasing up. Rubber has cost support and may continue to rise. Urea supply is increasing, and prices are expected to oscillate. Methanol is affected by supply and demand and geopolitical factors. Polyolefins are expected to oscillate weakly. Soda ash has supply - demand contradictions, and it is recommended to wait and see. Cotton and cotton yarn have long - term optimistic expectations. Apples and jujubes are in a weak oscillation state. Hogs are in a bottom - building stage, with different strategies for different periods. Eggs are not advisable to chase short positions in the short term. Corn is in a short - term balance and has a loose supply - demand pattern in the medium to long term. Soybean meal has different trends for different contracts. Oils have different trends, with rapeseed oil being weak and soybean and palm oil having limited rebounds [1][5][6][8][10][11][13][14][15][16][17][19][20][21][22][24][25][26][27][30][33][34][35][36][37][43][44] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Medium - to long - term bullish, suggesting buying on dips. Geopolitical disturbances increase, and the precious metals sector strengthens, causing stock indices to potentially trade in a range [1][5] - **Government Bonds**: Expected to trade in a range. The long - end and ultra - long - end of government bonds face resistance in further decline, while short - end varieties have strong allocation enthusiasm [1][6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading. The coal market has a wait - and - see sentiment due to weak fundamentals, with supply disturbances potentially limiting the downside, but demand weakness is the dominant factor [8] - **Rebar**: Range trading. The price rebounded on Friday, with a slightly low static valuation. In the short term, it is in a range - bound state due to a short - term policy vacuum and small supply - demand contradictions [8] - **Glass**: Waiting and seeing. The price is expected to oscillate weakly within the range of 1050 - 1070. The manufacturer's shipping speed slows down, and the market lacks upward momentum [9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Waiting and seeing or holding long positions lightly and rolling. The price is in a high - level oscillation, with strong macro - level support but weak fundamentals. It is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of long - position profit - taking before the Spring Festival [11] - **Aluminum**: Strengthening waiting and seeing. The price may continue high - level adjustments due to factors such as changes in supply and demand and macro - level sentiment [13] - **Nickel**: Waiting and seeing. Affected by factors such as Indonesia's quota reduction and weak fundamentals, the price has risen, but it is recommended to wait and see as the market has fully priced in [14] - **Tin**: Range trading or taking profit on previous long positions. The supply is tight, and the downstream maintains rigid demand. It is recommended to pay attention to supply resumption and downstream demand [15][16] - **Silver**: Bullish trend. Affected by geopolitical and economic factors, the medium - term price center moves up, and it is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious about opening new positions [16] - **Gold**: Range trading. Affected by geopolitical and economic factors, the medium - term price center moves up, and it is recommended to trade in a range and be cautious about chasing high prices [16][17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Range - bound oscillation. The supply and demand are both strong, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly. It is necessary to pay attention to the disturbance of Yichun's mining end [17] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Range trading. The bottom may have been reached. The supply - demand situation is still weak, but there are opportunities for structural upgrading. It is recommended to take a long - term low - buying approach [17][19] - **Caustic Soda**: Waiting and seeing. There is short - term delivery pressure, and the upside is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to supply - side adjustments and other factors [19] - **Benzene Styrene**: Range trading. The price has rebounded, but the valuation is high. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up and pay attention to cost and supply - demand changes [20][21] - **Rubber**: Range trading. The cost support is strong, and the price may continue to rise. It is necessary to pay attention to inventory and downstream demand [20][21] - **Urea**: Range trading. The supply is increasing, and the price is expected to oscillate within the range of 1730 - 1830. It is necessary to pay attention to factors such as compound fertilizer production and export policies [22][23] - **Methanol**: Range trading. The supply in the inland area recovers, and the demand is mixed. The price in some areas is strong due to geopolitical and supply factors [24] - **Polyolefins**: Weak oscillation. The cost support is strengthened, but the supply increases and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [24][25] - **Soda Ash**: Waiting and seeing. The supply - demand contradiction is relieved, and the downside is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [26] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Oscillatory adjustment. The long - term expectation is optimistic, but it is recommended to be cautious in the short term [27] - **Apples**: Weak oscillation. The Spring Festival stocking is in progress, but the trading of farmers' goods is slow, and the prices in some areas are loose [27] - **Jujubes**: Weak oscillation. The acquisition in Xinjiang is almost over, and the market trading is stable [29][30] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Hogs**: Short - selling opportunities on rebounds. The supply pressure is large in the short term, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly. In the long term, the production capacity is being reduced, but it is still above the equilibrium level, and it is recommended to hedge at high prices [30][31][33] - **Eggs**: Not advisable to chase short positions in the short term. The short - term price may rise seasonally, but the supply is sufficient. In the long term, the production capacity needs time to clear, and it is necessary to pay attention to external factors [33][34] - **Corn**: Being cautious about chasing high prices and waiting for rebounds to hedge at high prices. The short - term supply - demand is balanced, and the medium - to long - term supply - demand pattern is loose [35][36] - **Soybean Meal**: Shorting on rallies. The short - term support is strong, but the long - term price is under pressure. Different strategies are recommended for different contracts [36] - **Oils**: Weak oscillation for rapeseed oil, limited rebounds for soybean and palm oil. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up for soybean and palm oil and pay attention to spread trading [37][43][44]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is implementing a significant liquidity injection through a 900 billion yuan MLF operation to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system ahead of the Spring Festival [1][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Actions - The PBOC will conduct a 900 billion yuan MLF operation with a one-year term on January 23, using a fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price levels [1]. - In January, 2,000 billion yuan of MLF is set to mature, leading to a net liquidity injection of 1 trillion yuan, which is a substantial increase compared to previous levels [4]. - The PBOC's actions are aimed at ensuring funding for key projects and supporting economic recovery, especially with the early issuance of local government bonds for 2026 [4][5]. Group 2: Economic Analysis - Analysts suggest that the upcoming increase in cash withdrawals due to the Spring Festival will necessitate a stable liquidity environment, making it unlikely for the PBOC to resort to reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts in the short term [3][4]. - The PBOC's large-scale MLF operation is seen as a substitute for RRR cuts, signaling a continued supportive stance in monetary policy [5]. Group 3: Future Monetary Policy Outlook - Experts believe there is still room for RRR cuts and interest rate reductions, but these measures will depend on favorable conditions [6][7]. - The focus will be on the pace of fiscal policy implementation and government bond issuance, as government bonds accounted for 38.9% of total social financing in 2025 [8]. - The banking sector's net interest margin stability is crucial, especially with significant long-term deposits maturing in 2026 [8].

（原标题：南非央行称2026年通胀率或将达到3%） 南非工程新闻网站1月20日报道，南非储备银行行长康亚戈表示，由于物价保持稳定，2026年通胀 率有望达到央行设定的3%的新目标。南非储备银行（SARB）将公布2025年的年度通胀数据，预计通胀 率将在3.2%至3.4%之间。2025年，南非政府和央行25年来首次将通胀目标下调至3%，并设定了上下浮 动1个百分点的区间。该银行最初预测将在2027年实现这一目标。康亚戈表示，根据该行的预测模型， 今年仍有两次降息25个基点的空间。 ...

美联储的动作往往牵动全球的经济神经，而它新的掌门人的人选也备受关注，到底谁会出任，特朗普还在遮遮掩掩。目前，浮出水面的几大候选人各自秉 持怎样的路线和立场，特朗普更中意谁，美联储主席换人又会如何扰动世界的金融秩序？ Part. 新任美联储主席的出炉，世界关注。1月21日，特朗普乘专机飞往瑞士达沃斯前，记者还在追问他人选是否已经确定。 美国总统特朗普： 1 过去的一年，特朗普和现任美联储主席鲍威尔的矛盾几乎人尽皆知。无论特朗普如何进行攻击，鲍威尔就是不跟随他的步伐降息。为了逼迫鲍威尔降息， 特朗普已经或是公开发言，或是发帖，说了很多难听的话。他说鲍威尔精神有点问题，说他无能，糟糕透顶。 中国商务部研究院学术委员会副主任 张建平： 我会择日宣布，但我知道我想要谁。 此前，美财长贝森特曾放风，特朗普可能会在达沃斯论坛宣布新一届美联储主席的提名。整个世界都在等着结果的最终揭晓。当特朗普带着悬念，带着对 欧洲的关税威胁登上飞机时，贝森特却突然改了口，他称，特朗普最快将于下周做出决定。经过遴选，进入决赛圈的有四人，总统都已经见过了。一时 间，更大的悬念产生了，达沃斯论坛本可能成为特朗普提名新任美联储主席的最佳场合之一，特 ...

Core Viewpoint - The potential nomination of a successor to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell by President Trump raises concerns about the independence of the Fed and the implications for interest rates and inflation, particularly following the unexpected sidelining of leading candidate Hassett [1]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Candidate Profiles - Bond investors are under pressure as they bet on a successor who would lower borrowing costs, with short-term U.S. Treasury yields outperforming long-term yields based on this assumption [1]. - The market's reaction to Trump's reluctance to nominate Hassett, who was seen as a proponent of lower rates, led to a sell-off in U.S. Treasuries and reduced expectations for Fed rate cuts this year [1]. - Candidates for the Fed chair position are viewed as having varying degrees of dovishness, with differing opinions on their potential impact on the market [2]. Group 2: Candidate Analysis - Walsh is seen as a hawkish candidate whose appointment could raise yields, potentially pursuing a policy of rate cuts while selling Fed bond holdings, which may negatively affect long-term inflation-linked bonds [3][4]. - Reed is initially perceived as dovish due to his lesser-known policy stance, with potential for a weaker dollar and a steeper U.S. yield curve if appointed [5][6]. - Waller, a more traditional choice, is viewed as a safe option with minimal need for market re-pricing, likely leading to a slight decrease in long-term yields if appointed [8]. - Hassett's potential nomination is complicated by his perceived loyalty to Trump, which could lead to lower front-end rates and higher long-end rates, although his confirmation prospects have diminished due to political backlash [9].

Core Viewpoint - BlackRock's Tom Becker believes that the market is underestimating the risk of persistent inflation in the US and UK, leading to increased short positions in long-term government bonds [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The company has been selling US and UK government bonds since the end of last year, anticipating that stubborn inflation will hinder the interest rate cut process [1] - Becker has been increasing short positions in long-term US and UK bonds, reflecting a bearish outlook on bond performance due to inflation concerns [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - The recent performance of bonds has been relatively strong, especially as the outlook for inflation returning to 2% appears uncertain [1] - Becker's assessment contrasts with market expectations, which generally anticipate a decline in inflation that would create room for interest rate cuts [1]

Group 1 - Gold prices surged significantly, closing at $4,936.17, with a rise of $105.61 or 2.2%, and reached a new high of $4,967.01 during early Asian trading [1] - The U.S. stock market saw all major indices rise, with the Dow Jones up 0.63%, Nasdaq up 0.91%, and S&P 500 up 0.55% [1] - The U.S. economy showed resilience, with personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increasing by 0.3% for the second consecutive month after inflation adjustment [1][3] Group 2 - The core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year, indicating a slight rebound compared to October [3] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 200,000, lower than the expected 210,000, with a four-week average of 201,500 [3] - The U.S. GDP for Q3 2025 was revised to an annualized growth rate of 4.4%, slightly above the expected 4.3% [3] Group 3 - The Central Bank of Turkey announced a 100 basis point rate cut, lowering the policy rate from 38% to 37%, which led to a decline of over 2% in Turkey's main banking index [3][5] - The Turkish Central Bank has been on a rate-cutting spree, having reduced rates multiple times in recent months, indicating a shift in monetary policy [5] Group 4 - President Trump issued warnings to Europe regarding the sale of U.S. bonds, threatening large-scale retaliation [6] - Trump also discussed military access rights in Greenland, indicating potential geopolitical tensions that could impact markets [6] - The U.S. government plans to impose a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran, signaling escalating tensions in the region [7] Group 5 - The U.S. aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln is expected to arrive in the Arabian Sea, indicating potential military involvement in the region [9] - Recent developments in Ukraine, including large-scale drone attacks and upcoming negotiations involving the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine, are critical for geopolitical stability [9]

中国人民银行1月22日发布中期借贷便利招标公告称，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，1月23日，将以固定 数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展9000亿元中期借贷便利（MLF）操作，期限为1年期。 董希淼认为，本月MLF实现较大规模净投放后，春节之前降准的可能性降低。但降准是政策信号比较 强烈的措施，不但释放长期流动性，还将降低金融机构资金成本，提振市场信心，稳定预期。目前，我 国加权平均存款准备金率为6.3%，降准还有一定空间。因此，未来一段时间，降准仍有较大可能和必 要。 中信证券研究指出，历史上经常以降准置换MLF，使二者存在一定协同规律。但伴随MLF作为主要货 币政策工具的地位淡化，长端流动性工具需综合参考多类工具余额与到期节奏，降准判断框架也需随之 调整。后续，可关注MLF、买断式逆回购集中到期压力较大阶段，中国人民银行通过降准等方式对冲 的可能性。 来源：中国银行保险报 在招联首席研究员、上海金融与发展实验室副主任董希淼看来，"MLF净投放7000亿元，总量上介于降 准0.25个百分点到0.5个百分点之间"。此次操作将继续向市场投放中期流动性，满足春节前后跨节资金 需求，对冲年初信贷投放和政府债券发行加快 ...

去美元化加速，警惕 美元指数下行风险 华泰期货研究院 2026年01月23日 蔡劭立 F3063489 Z0014617 联系人： 朱思谋 F03142856 — 量价和政策信号— 2 【量价观察】美元兑人民币期权隐含波动率上升 ◆3个月的美元兑人民币期权隐含波动率曲线显示出人民币的升值趋势，Put端波动率仍高于Call端，Put端波动率整体下 降 美元兑人民币期权隐含波动率 Delta为5的美元兑人民币3个月期权隐含波动率 数据来源： 3 Bloomberg Wind 华泰期货研究院 2 3 4 5 6 3M 2026/01/22 3M 2025/12/26 3M 2025/09/30 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2024-01 2024-07 2025-01 2025-07 2026-01 20260121（%） 20260114（%） 20251224（%） 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 一月 三月 六月 一年 本周新交所美元兑人民币期货升贴水(-) 本周银行远期升贴水(-) 本周美中利差 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 一月 三月 六月 一年 上周新交所美元兑人民币期货升 ...

土耳其降息了。 据央视新闻消息，当地时间1月22日，土耳其央行召开货币政策委员会会议，宣布将基准利率从38%下 调100个基点至37%。这是土耳其央行进入2026年以来的首次降息。 土耳其央行在声明中表示，尽管受食品价格上涨影响，1月份消费者价格指数（CPI）可能出现月度波 动，但整体通胀的潜在趋势仍在下降。2025年第四季度的各项指标显示，土耳其国内需求状况虽有所放 缓，但仍继续支持"去通胀"进程。 声明强调，在实现价格稳定目标之前，央行将继续维持从紧的货币政策立场。 具体来看： 2025年7月，土耳其央行将基准利率下调300个基点至43%； 2025年9月，土耳其央行将基准利率下调250个基点至40.5%； 2025年10月，土耳其央行将基准利率下调100个基点至39.5%； 2025年12月，土耳其央行将基准利率下调150个基点至38%。 IMF在2026年1月份发布的《世界经济展望》报告中，以"全球经济：分化力量下的稳定"为题，指出土 耳其经济预计2026年将增长4.2%，2027年将增长4.1%。在2025年10月的预测中，IMF曾预计土耳其2026 年和2027年的经济增长率均为3.7%。 IMF ...