国债期货30年期主力合约跌幅收窄至0.40%，此前一度跌0.70%；10年期主力合约跌0.11%，5年期主力 合约涨0.03%，2年期主力合约涨0.02%。 ...

2年期国债期货（TS）主力合约涨0.01%，5年期国债期货（TF）主力合约跌0.07%，10年期国债期货 （T）主力合约跌0.21%，30年期国债期货（TL）主力合约跌0.61%。 国债期货早盘开盘 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic fundamental side shows a marginal recovery trend, but the recovery foundation needs to be consolidated, and policy expectations continue to increase. The overseas market shows signs of economic cooling, and the Fed's policy still favors anti - inflation. The bond market is in a sideways shock, and the bond bull environment remains unchanged. It is recommended to wait for the short - end to stabilize before making band allocations [92] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - **Contract Performance**: The 30 - year TL2506 contract fell 0.32%, the 10 - year T2506 contract rose 0.06%, the 5 - year TF2506 contract fell 0.01%, and the 2 - year TS2506 contract fell 0.02%. The trading volumes of TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts all decreased, as did their open interests [11][28] - **CTD Bond Performance**: For the 30 - year, 200012.IB fell 0.33 and 210005.IB fell 0.15; for the 10 - year, 220003.IB fell 0.06 and 240025.IB remained unchanged; for the 5 - year, 240014.IB rose 0.03 and 220021.IB rose 0.11; for the 2 - year, 240024.IB rose 0.03 and 220002.IB rose 0.09 [11] 2. News Review and Analysis - **Domestic News**: On May 7, China agreed to have contact with the US, and the Chinese finance minister said China would achieve the 5% growth target in 2025. On May 8, three departments issued a package of financial policies, including a 0.5 - percentage - point reserve requirement ratio cut, a 0.1 - percentage - point policy rate cut, etc. The public fund industry worth over 30 trillion yuan underwent systematic reform [31] - **International News**: On May 8, the Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.5%. The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 3 was 228,000, lower than expected [32] 3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes**: The yield spreads between 10Y - 5Y and 10Y - 1Y bonds widened slightly. The spread between 2 - year and 5 - year main contracts widened slightly, while the spread between 5 - year and 10 - year main contracts narrowed slightly. The inter - period spreads of 10 - year, 30 - year, 2 - year, and 5 - year contracts weakened slightly [40][44][50] - **Main Contract Position Changes**: The net short positions of the top 20 holders in the T main contract decreased slightly [61] - **Interest Rate Changes**: Overnight, 1 - week, 2 - week, and 1 - month Shibor rates all declined. The DR007 weighted average rate rose to around 1.78%, and the money market tightened. The yields of short - term treasury bonds were stronger than long - term ones, with 1 - 7Y yields down 2 - 5bp and 10Y, 30Y yields up 1bp to 1.63% and 1.88% respectively. The yield spreads between US and Chinese 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds widened slightly [65][69] - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 836.1 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and had 1617.8 billion yuan in reverse repurchase maturities, resulting in a net injection of 781.7 billion yuan. The DR007 weighted average rate fell to around 1.52%, and the money market tightness improved [72] - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, bond issuance was 1433.8 billion yuan, total repayment was 813.6 billion yuan, and net financing was 620.169 billion yuan [76] - **Market Sentiment**: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.2095, down 81 basis points this week. The spread between offshore and onshore RMB strengthened. The 10 - year US treasury bond yield rose slightly, the VIX index fell slightly, the 10 - year treasury bond yield in China rose slightly, and the A - share risk premium fell slightly [82][85][89] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic Fundamentals**: The domestic economy shows a marginal recovery, but the recovery foundation needs to be strengthened, and policy expectations will continue to increase [92] - **Overseas Situation**: The US economy shows signs of cooling, and the Fed's policy still favors anti - inflation, with the possibility of delaying the rate - cut time to July [92] - **Strategy**: The bond market is in a sideways shock. Considering the long - term need for a low - interest - rate environment, the bond bull environment remains unchanged. However, beware of the risk of long - end bond price corrections. It is recommended to wait for the short - end to stabilize before making band allocations [92]

2年期国债期货（TS）主力合约涨0.02%，5年期国债期货（TF）主力合约跌0.01%，10年期国债期货 （T）主力合约涨0.01%，30年期国债期货（TL）主力合约跌0.11%。 国债期货早盘收盘 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 5 月 9 日） 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 区间震荡 主 | 降息预期兑现，短期震荡整理为 | 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均小幅震荡反弹。中长期的角度看，外部环境变数较大，需要稳定的内部环 境来对冲，宏观政策将逐渐加码，央行实施适度宽松的货币政策，国债中长 ...

Market Performance - Treasury futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.62%, the 10-year main contract down 0.19%, the 5-year main contract down 0.08%, and the 2-year main contract down 0.01% [1] - The yield on the 10-year government bond "24附息国债11" rose by 1.70 basis points to 1.6380%, while the yield on the 3-year government bond "25附息国债05" fell by 1.25 basis points to 1.4750% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 195.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.50%, with a total bid amount of 195.5 billion yuan [2] - On the same day, 530.8 billion yuan in reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 335.3 billion yuan [2] - Overnight and 7-day pledged repo rates for deposit institutions both fell by over 4 basis points [2] Policy Measures - The central bank announced three categories of ten policies, including a 50 basis point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in liquidity [3] - The 7-day reverse repurchase rate was lowered by 10 basis points to 1.4%, which also led to a 10 basis point decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [3] - Structural policies include increasing the re-lending for technological innovation and technical transformation to 800 billion yuan and establishing a 500 billion yuan re-lending for consumption recovery and elderly care [3] Operational Recommendations - The recent announcement of reserve requirement and interest rate cuts aligns with expectations, suggesting that while bond supply may increase in May, the central bank's measures could stabilize the funding environment [4] - The short-term impact of the interest rate cut is expected to be limited, as long-term bond yields have already adjusted to reflect previous rate cut expectations [4] - The focus for the bond market will remain on funding conditions, fundamentals, and trade negotiations, with a recommendation to consider long positions after corrections [4]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Tech Index turned negative after initially rising nearly 3% [1] - The Hang Seng Index's gains narrowed to 0.5% [1]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 期债 行情回顾 1、基本面：国债期货收盘多数走低，银行间主要利率债收益率多数上行。存款类机构隔夜和七天质押式回购利率双降，均下行超7个bp。近日关税谈判有 了一些新的消息，但距达成协议料还有距离，对债市冲击暂时有限。若后续资金面保持此前的宽松状态，债市将持续获得支撑。 2、资金面：4月30日，人民银行以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了4050亿元逆回购操作，操作利率1.50%，投标量4050亿元，中标量4050亿元。Wind数 据显示，当日10870亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放6820亿元。 3、基差：TS主力基差为-0.0967，现券贴水期货，偏空。TF主力基差为-0.0426，现券贴水期货，偏空。T主力基差0.0453，现券升水期货，偏多。 TL主 力基差为0.1231，现券升水期货，偏多。 4、库存：TS、TF、T主力可交割券余额分别为13594亿、14935亿、23566亿；中性。 国债期货早报- 2025年5月7日 大越期货投资咨询部 杜淑芳 从业资格证号：F0230469 投资咨询证号：Z0000690 联系方式：0575-85226759 重 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Report's Core View - After the Politburo meeting at the end of April met expectations and the short - term negative impact of tariffs was fully priced in by the market, the bond market is likely to return to being fundamentally driven, and the interest rate center may decline further [2]. - The market expects the Fed to restart rate cuts around June, which may be a window for the central bank to implement monetary easing. Reserve requirement ratio cuts may take precedence over interest rate cuts. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest rate decision on May 8th [2]. - Given the recent intensifying differentiation in the bond market, with short - term bond futures significantly weaker than long - term ones, if the short - end shows no signs of stabilization, beware of the risk of long - end bond price corrections. Wait for the short - end to stabilize before making band allocations [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T主力收盘价为109.045，涨幅0%，成交量49555，减少366；TF主力收盘价106.060，跌幅0.04%，成交量46541，减少627；TS主力收盘价102.308，跌幅0.06%，成交量28361，增加430；TL主力收盘价120.970，涨幅0.11%，成交量61695，增加2011 [2]. 3.2 Futures Spreads - TL2509 - 2506价差为0.34，增加0.10；T2509 - 2506价差为0.17，增加0.03；TF2509 - 2506价差为0.33，增加0.04；TS2509 - 2506价差为0.28，增加0.02；T06 - TL06价差为 - 11.93，减少0.16；TF06 - T06价差为 - 2.99，减少0.08；TS06 - T06价差为 - 6.74，减少0.10；TS06 - TF06价差为 - 3.75，减少0.02 [2]. 3.3 Futures Positions - T主力持仓量189565，增加1545；T前20名多头持仓198120，增加3917；T前20名空头持仓209900，增加4231；T前20名净空仓11780，增加314；TF主力持仓量155595，减少1941；TF前20名多头持仓168105，减少209；TF前20名空头持仓183683，减少235；TF前20名净空仓15578，减少26；TS主力持仓量93460，增加212；TS前20名多头持仓108265，增加2849；TS前20名空头持仓126081，增加2354；TS前20名净空仓17816，减少495；TL主力持仓量102169，减少560；TL前20名多头持仓106317，增加619；TL前20名空头持仓111916，增加1308；TL前20名净空仓5599，增加689 [2]. 3.4 Top Two CTD (Clean Prices) - 220003.IB（6y）净价107.4645，减少0.0173；240025.IB（6y）净价99.0955，增加0.0482；240014.IB（4y）净价101.6515，增加0.0378；220027.IB（4y）净价105.7009，增加0.0344；240024.IB（1.7y）净价99.3344，增加0.0157；240003.IB（1.9y）净价100.9807，增加0.0346；200012.IB（18y）净价138.2641，减少0.0471；210005.IB（18y）净价137.0061，减少0.1458 [2]. 3.5 Active Treasury Bond Yields - 1年期收益率1.4500%，减少0.40bp；3年期收益率1.4750%，减少2.25bp；5年期收益率1.5000%，减少0.75bp；7年期收益率1.5800%，持平；10年期收益率1.6210%，减少0.50bp [2]. 3.6 Short - Term Interest Rates - 银质押隔夜利率1.6582%，减少12.18bp；Shibor隔夜利率1.7020%，减少5.80bp；银质押7天利率1.7456%，减少20.44bp；Shibor7天利率1.7070%，减少5.50bp；银质押14天利率1.7300%，减少17.00bp；Shibor14天利率1.7370%，减少4.40bp [2]. 3.7 LPR Rates - 1年期LPR为3.10%，持平；5年期LPR为3.6%，持平 [2]. 3.8 Open Market Operations - 发行规模4050亿，到期规模10870亿，利率1.5%，期限7天，净回笼6820亿 [2]. 3.9 Industry News - 中国人民银行行长潘功胜出席并主持东盟与中日韩财长和央行行长会，会议通过在清迈倡议多边化下新设以人民币等可自由使用货币出资的快速融资工具相关安排 [2]. - 中国台湾地区货币政策主管部门表示未参与台美经贸工作小组，美国财政部未要求台币升值，不会操纵汇率，密切关注资金进出 [2]. 3.10 Market Conditions - 周二国债现券收益率小幅走弱，国债期货短弱长强，大额逆回购到期，DR007加权利率维持在1.72%附近 [2]. 3.11 Domestic Fundamentals - 政策前置发力提振内需，经济数据表现强劲，社零、固投、工增小幅超预期，失业率环比改善；金融数据小幅超预期，政府债支撑社融，但私人部门融资意愿仍需提振；核心通胀改善，但工业价格数据仍偏弱；抢出口效应推动出口超预期回升，但持续性可能不佳 [2]. 3.12 Overseas Situation - 美国4月PMI小幅回落，非农增长、CPI、PPI、社零数据均不及预期，美国各部门对关税态度分歧剧烈，关税或虎头蛇尾 [2]. 3.13 Key Events to Watch - 5月8日02：00美国至5月7日美联储利率决定（上限）；5月8日19：00英国至5月8日央行利率决定；5月8日20：30美国至5月3日当周初请失业金人数（万人） [3]

2年期国债期货（TS）主力合约跌0.01%，5年期国债期货（TF）主力合约涨0.01%，10年期国债期货 （T）主力合约涨0.05%，30年期国债期货（TL）主力合约涨0.12%。 国债期货早盘收盘 ...