Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on June 5, with a fixed rate of 1.40%, totaling 126.5 billion yuan, matching the bidding amount [1] - On the same day, 266 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 139.5 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The funding environment remains loose, with slight declines in overnight and 7-day pledged repo rates [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. is reported at 4.32% [5] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is around 1.70%, showing a slight decrease from the previous day [8] Group 4: Bond Market - The closing prices for government bond futures indicate a decline in the 30-year contract by 0.16% and a slight increase in the 5-year and 2-year contracts by 0.02% and 0.04% respectively [12] Group 5: Economic Indicators - The Caixin Services PMI for May in China is reported at 51.1, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from April, indicating an acceleration in service sector expansion [13] - The meeting in Guangzhou emphasized the acceleration of major projects and the optimization of industrial layout to enhance economic growth [13] Group 6: Bond Issuance - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has initiated the first batch of securities company bond renewals, with quality central and state-owned enterprises preparing to follow suit [17] - Chongqing Bank plans to issue 3 billion yuan in technology innovation bonds [17] - Jiuan Medical intends to register and issue medium-term notes and short-term financing bonds totaling no more than 4 billion yuan [18]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The market focuses on local large - consumption hotspots. The Shanghai Composite Index rose slightly on Wednesday, but the trading volume was hard to expand effectively, lacking a sustainable main line. The big - consumption sector was active, but the trading volume limited the market's upside. With potential tariff event fluctuations, it's recommended to maintain an empty - position and wait and see [2][8]. - **Stock Index Options**: The volatility reduction continues, and it's advisable to be cautious with the covered strategy. The underlying market rose across the board, but the options market turnover was lackluster. The positions of some varieties changed significantly, and the volatility of each variety continued to decline. The overall market sentiment was somewhat inconsistent with the underlying market, and the covered strategy should be continued for now [3][8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures rose collectively. The central bank's reverse - repurchase led to a net withdrawal of 600 million yuan, and the capital market remained loose. The market was affected by tariff events and expectations of central - bank operations. In the short term, the long - end bonds are expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation [4][8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 行情观点 - **Stock Index Futures**: IF, IH, IC, and IM had changes in basis, inter - period spreads, and positions. The market focused on large - consumption stocks in Hong Kong, but faced challenges such as limited trading volume and potential tariff impacts. The recommended operation is to wait and see [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: The underlying market rose, with the CSI 1000 up 0.88%. The options market turnover decreased by 7.67% to 2.814 billion yuan. Some varieties' positions reached short - term highs, and the MO volatility index dropped to around 21%. The covered strategy should be continued [3][8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The trading volume, positions, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and basis of T, TF, TS, and TL had corresponding changes. The central bank's reverse - repurchase led to a net withdrawal of 600 million yuan. The T contract was affected by tariff events and stock - market movements. The recommended strategies include maintaining an oscillating trend, paying attention to short - hedging at low basis levels, watching for basis widening, and steepening the yield curve in the medium term [8][9]. 经济日历 - Economic data such as the EU's April unemployment rate, May CPI, and core CPI, as well as the US's May ADP employment data are presented, along with predicted and actual values where available [10]. 重要信息资讯跟踪 - In 2025, 25,000 urban old - community renovation projects are planned nationwide, with 5,679 started from January to April. Six regions have a start - up rate of over 50%. - The SCO member states' finance ministers and central bank governors' meeting discussed economic and financial issues and supported actions to deepen regional financial cooperation. - The estimated wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in May were 12.4 million, a 38% year - on - year increase and a 9% month - on - month increase. The cumulative wholesale from January to May was estimated at 52.2 million, a 41% year - on - year increase [11]. 衍生品市场监测 - **Stock Index Futures Data**: The report does not provide specific data details. - **Stock Index Options Data**: The report does not provide specific data details. - **Treasury Bond Futures Data**: The report does not provide specific data details.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term and medium - term view of TL2509 is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", due to rising tariff risks and weakening macro - data [1]. - For financial futures in the bond index sector (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". In the short term, the upward and downward space of bond futures is limited, and they will mainly oscillate and consolidate [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For the variety TL2509, the short - term and medium - term trends are "oscillation", the intraday trend is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", with a general view of "oscillation". The core logic is the rising tariff risk and weakening macro - data [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - The intraday view of varieties TL, T, TF, TS is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", and the medium - term view is "oscillation", with a reference view of "oscillation". The core logic includes: the bond futures continued narrow - range oscillation and consolidation; the latest Caixin Manufacturing PMI dropped significantly, indicating a weakened export rush effect in May and great pressure on future export orders; in June, macro - policies are expected to focus on stabilizing growth and adjusting the structure, and the weakening of macro - economic indicators supports bond futures prices; attention can be paid to the financial policies at the Lujiazui Forum on June 18; the uncertainty of the tariff outlook has deepened, the main tone of moderately loose monetary policy remains unchanged, and the market's expectation of future loose policies will rise, so bond futures have strong bottom support [5].

资金方面，隔夜 shibor 报 1.4080%，较前一交易日下跌 0.2bp，7 天 shibor 报 1.5430%，较前一 交易日上涨 2.8bp；14 天 shibor 报 1.5760%，较前一交易日下跌 0.3bp；1 个月 shibor 报 1.6200%， 与上一交易日持平。 上一交易日国债期货市场 | | | 主力合约 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌(%) | 振幅(%) | 成交 | 持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 | 年期 | TS2509 | 102.372 | 102.416 | 102.360 | 102.396 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 31202 | 114335 | | 5 | 年期 | TF2509 | 105.990 | 106.060 | 105.935 | 106.035 | 0.07 | 0.12 | 46001 | 139957 | | 10 | 年期 | T2509 | 108.720 | 108.775 | ...

Group 1 - The open interest in South Korea's three-year government bond futures contracts decreased by 17,468 contracts, marking the largest decline since May 13 [1] - This decline in open interest follows the election of Lee Jae-myung as the President of South Korea, who took office on June 4 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The negative impact on the bond market caused by the unexpected outcome of the Sino-US tariff negotiations has been largely digested. The bond market is now driven by the money supply and economic fundamentals. In the short term, there are no clear positive or negative factors, so the bond market is expected to continue its volatile consolidation. Attention should be paid to subsequent high-frequency economic data and changes in the money supply. Given the recent underperformance of short-term bond futures compared to long-term ones and the significant market divergence, there may be no good short-term trading opportunities, and the risk of a correction in long-term bond prices due to short-term spread adjustments should be watched out for [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Closing Prices and Volume Changes**: T, TF, TS, and TL main contract closing prices increased by 0.09%, 0.07%, 0.04%, and 0.1% respectively. T and TL main contract trading volumes increased by 12,841 and 9,425 respectively, while TF and TS main contract trading volumes decreased by 1,213 and 6,072 respectively [2] - **Price Spreads**: The spreads of TL2509 - 2506, T2509 - 2506, TF2509 - 2506, and TS2509 - 2506 all increased by 0.02, while T06 - TL06, TS06 - T06, TS06 - TF06 spreads decreased by 0.04, and TF06 - T06 spread remained unchanged [2] - **Open Interest**: T, TF, TS, and TL main contract open interests decreased by 225, 1,564, 339, and 2 respectively. T and TL top 20 long positions increased by 3,788 and 1,637 respectively, while TF and TS top 20 long positions decreased by 358 and 1,040 respectively. T and TL top 20 short positions increased by 1,978 and 852 respectively, while TF top 20 short positions increased by 3,052 and TS top 20 short positions decreased by 1,025. T and TL top 20 net short positions decreased by 1,810 and 785 respectively, while TF and TS top 20 net short positions increased by 3,410 and 15 respectively [2] CTD Bonds - The net prices of several CTD bonds, such as 2500802.IB, 220010.IB, 240020.IB, etc., all showed an upward trend [2] Active Treasury Bonds - Yields of 1 - 7Y active treasury bonds increased by 0.75 - 1.00bp, and the 10Y yield increased by 0.10bp [2] Short - term Interest Rates - Silver - pledged overnight and Shibor overnight rates decreased by 1.37bp and 0.20bp respectively, while silver - pledged 7 - day, Shibor 7 - day, and silver - pledged 14 - day rates changed by 1.00bp, 2.80bp, and 1.00bp respectively [2] LPR Rates - 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged [2] Open Market Operations - The issuance scale was 214.9 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 215.5 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 600 million yuan [2] Industry News - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI was 48.3, down 2.1 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line for the first time in eight months. The production index and new order index reached their lowest levels since December 2022 and October 2022 respectively. The US raised tariffs on imported steel, aluminum, and their derivatives from 25% to 50%. The US accused China of violating the consensus of the Geneva economic and trade talks, and China firmly rejected the groundless accusation [2] Key Data to Follow - On June 5th at 20:15, the ECB will announce its interest rate decision. At 20:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 31st will be released. On June 6th at 20:30, the US unemployment rate and seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls for May will be announced [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of Treasury bond futures generally rose in the previous trading day, with the T2509 contract rising 0%. The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of Treasury bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends, and key - term Treasury bond yields in China generally declined. Overseas, yields of key - term Treasury bonds in the US, Germany, and Japan increased. The central bank conducted 4545 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 3755 billion yuan. The market funds remained relatively stable, but there may be some disturbances at the beginning of June. The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, which supports the price of Treasury bond futures. Attention should be paid to the progress of trade negotiations and changes in the market funds [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Performance**: The prices of Treasury bond futures generally rose. For example, TS2509 rose 0.050 to 102.396, with a 0.05% increase; TF2509 rose 0.150 to 106.020, with a 0.14% increase [2]. - **Positions and Trading Volume**: The positions of some contracts increased, such as T2509 with an increase of 2562, while TF2509 decreased by 973. Trading volumes also varied among contracts [2]. - **Cross - period Spreads**: Cross - period spreads changed, for example, the cross - period spread of T2509 decreased from 0.0250 to 0.005 [2]. - **IRR**: The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of Treasury bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities [2]. Short - term Market Interest Rates - **Rate Changes**: SHIBOR7 - day interest rate rose 1.5bp, DR007 rate fell 4.3bp, and GC007 rate fell 7.2bp [2]. Spot Market - **Yield Changes**: Key - term Treasury bond yields in China generally declined. For example, the 10Y Treasury bond yield declined 1.9bp to 1.68%, and the 10 - 2Y yield spread was 16.44bp [2]. Overseas Market - **Yield Changes**: The US 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 5bp, the German 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 2bp, and the Japanese 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 0.5bp [2]. Macro News - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 4545 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on June 3, with a net withdrawal of 3755 billion yuan. In May, the central bank carried out SLF operations of 14.01 billion yuan, and policy banks net - repaid 2700 billion yuan of PSL [3]. - **Economic Data**: The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI was 48.3, down 2.1 percentage points from the previous month. The OECD lowered the growth forecasts for the US and the global economy. The US 2025 growth forecast was cut from 2.2% to 1.6%, and the global growth forecast for 2025 was lowered to 2.9% [3]. - **International Relations**: The US increased tariffs on imported steel, aluminum and their derivatives from 25% to 50%, starting from June 4, 2025. The US also made unfounded accusations against China, and China firmly opposed these actions [3]. Comment and Strategy - **Market Situation**: The market funds remained relatively stable, but there may be some disturbances at the beginning of June due to a large number of maturing certificates of deposit. The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, which supports the price of Treasury bond futures. Attention should be paid to the progress of trade negotiations and changes in the market funds [3].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The domestic bond market rebounded, with spot bonds and futures strengthening. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures main contract rose 0.56%, and major interest - rate bond yields declined by 1 - 3 bp. The resumption of Trump's tariff policy increased risk - aversion, and the end - of - month liquidity was ample, leading to a temporary bond market rebound. Going forward, Treasury bond futures are expected to remain volatile [3][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Periodic Bond Market Review - **Fundamentals**: The domestic bond market stopped falling and rebounded, with the 30 - year Treasury bond futures main contract up 0.56%, and major interest - rate bond yields down 1 - 3 bp. The resumption of Trump's tariff policy led to increased risk - aversion, and the end - of - month liquidity was ample [3]. - **Funding**: On May 30, the central bank conducted 291.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a rate of 1.40%, with daily net investment of 148.6 billion yuan [3]. - **Basis**: TS, TF, and T main contract bases are negative, indicating spot bonds are at a discount to futures and bearish. TL main contract basis is positive, indicating spot bonds are at a premium to futures and bullish [3]. - **Inventory**: The deliverable bond balances of TS, TF, and T main contracts are 1.3594 trillion, 1.4935 trillion, and 2.3599 trillion respectively, considered neutral [4]. - **Market**: TS, TF, and T main contracts are above the 20 - day moving average, with the 20 - day moving average upward, indicating a bullish trend [4]. - **Main Positions**: TS and TF main contracts have net long positions with long positions increasing; T main contract has a net long position with long positions decreasing [5]. - **Expectation**: May's PMI rebounded but remained in the contraction range, and the LPR was cut for the first time this year. The central bank adjusted MLF operations and mentioned potential RRR and interest - rate cuts. After the impact of the tariff war subsided and RRR and interest - rate cuts were implemented, the bond market's adjustment momentum is limited, and futures are expected to remain volatile [5]. 3.2 Market Review | Futures Contract | Current Price | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Daily Position Change | CTD Bond | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | T2509 | 108.725 | +0.21% | 96,000 | 285,750 | - 1,142 | 240013.IB | | TF2509 | 106.020 | +0.14% | 79,600 | 219,680 | 5,684 | 240001.IB | | TS2509 | 102.396 | +0.04% | 54,900 | 171,028 | 5,667 | 240012.IB | | TL2509 | 119.41 | +0.56% | 96,300 | 148,128 | - 780 | 200012.IB | [8] 3.3 Spot Bond Analysis The report presents DR interest rates and inter - bank Treasury bond yields and maturity spreads, but specific numerical analysis is not provided [9][13] 3.4 Basis Analysis The report shows the basis trends of T2509, TF2509, and TS2509 CTD bonds, but specific numerical analysis is not provided [16][17][19]

2年期国债期货（TS）主力合约跌0.03%，5年期国债期货（TF）主力合约跌0.03%，10年期国债期货 （T）主力合约跌0.04%，30年期国债期货（TL）主力合约涨0.03%。 国债期货早盘收盘 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 国债期货早报- 2025年5月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 杜淑芳 从业资格证号：F0230499 投资咨询证号：Z0000990 联系方式：0575-85229759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或 阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 期债 行情回顾 1、基本面：债市期现货弱势加剧，美国法院"叫停"特朗普关税打压避险情绪。国债期货全线下跌，30年期主力合约跌0.65%。银行间主要利率债收益率 纷纷上行，幅度多在1-2个bp之间。资金宽松，跨月无虞，存款类机构隔夜质押式回购利率微降，七天质押式回购利率则上行超2个bp。 2、资金面：5月29日，人民银行以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了2660亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量2660亿元，中标量2660亿元。 | 期货合约 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 日增仓 | CTD券 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...