【黄金期货最新行情】 上周五，美国总统特朗普宣布，他将于8月15日在阿拉斯加会见俄罗斯总统普京，商讨结束俄乌冲突的 相关事宜。这一消息令市场对地缘政治风险的担忧有所缓解。 近期美国就业数据表现不及预期，市场对美联储9月降息的预期显著升温。根据市场定价，美联储在9月 放宽货币政策的概率高达90%，并且预计到2025年底还将至少再降息一次。 与此同时，中美贸易谈判的进展也为市场增添了不确定性。特朗普要求华盛顿与北京在8月12日之前达 成协议，这一最后期限的临近让投资者保持高度警惕。 【机构观点】 | 8月11日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 779.48 | -0.81% | 278074 | 211644 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【基本面消息】 数据显示，8月11日上海黄金现货价格报价778.50元/克，相较于期货主力价格（779.48元/克）贴水0.98 元/克。 新世纪期货：在高利率环境和全球化重构的大背景下，黄金的定价机制正在由传统的以实际利率为核心 向以央行购金 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices reached a two-week high of $3408.71 due to increased safe-haven demand driven by geopolitical uncertainties and weak U.S. employment data [2][3] - On August 7, gold prices surged by $26.05, or 0.77%, closing at $3395.30 per ounce, as market participants anticipated a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve [2] - The market is currently experiencing a wide trading range between $3400 and $3370, with ongoing volatility influenced by various news events, including U.S. tariffs and employment data [3][4] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are attributed to conflicting news, with the People's Bank of China increasing its gold reserves for nine consecutive months, providing bullish support [3] - The market is expected to continue its "whipsaw" behavior, with potential for a downward trend following a brief upward movement [4][6] - Short-term trading strategies suggest focusing on selling during price rebounds, with key resistance levels identified at $3408-$3418 and support levels at $3370-$3360 [6] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices have shown significant declines, with Brent crude falling to $66.40 per barrel and WTI crude to $63.82 per barrel, marking a weekly drop of over 4% and 5% respectively [7] - The downward pressure on oil prices is primarily due to concerns over the impact of new U.S. tariffs on global economic growth and shifts in OPEC+ policies [7][8] - The technical outlook for oil indicates a bearish trend, with six consecutive days of declining prices and MACD indicators suggesting strengthening bearish momentum [8]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices reached a two-week high of $3408.71 due to increased safe-haven demand driven by geopolitical uncertainties and weak U.S. employment data [2][3] - On August 7, gold prices surged by $26.05, or 0.77%, closing at $3395.30 per ounce, as market participants anticipated a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2] - The market is currently experiencing a wide trading range between $3400 and $3370, with ongoing volatility influenced by various news events, including U.S. tariffs and employment data [3][4] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are attributed to a mix of fundamental factors, including China's central bank's increase in gold reserves and geopolitical tensions involving U.S. tariffs [3] - The technical outlook suggests that if gold breaks below the support level of $3375-$3370, it may indicate a bearish trend, while a breakout above $3409 could lead to further gains [6] - The current trading strategy recommends focusing on short positions near $3400, with key resistance levels identified at $3408-$3418 and support levels at $3370-$3360 [6][8] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices have shown significant declines, with Brent crude falling to $66.40 per barrel and WTI crude to $63.82 per barrel, marking a weekly drop of over 4% and 5% respectively [7] - The downward trend in oil prices is primarily driven by concerns over the impact of new U.S. tariffs on global economic growth and shifting OPEC+ policies [7] - The technical analysis indicates a bearish outlook for oil, with six consecutive days of declining prices and MACD indicators suggesting strengthening bearish momentum [8]

2025年8月08日 黄金行情分析 消息面： 关税动态，美国对等关税生效，欧盟称对美芯片出口仍设15%关税上限；日本首相石破茂表示日美无额外关税分歧，日本商品不会在现有基础上被美国额外 加征15%关税。印度总理莫迪虽未直接响应美国关税，但强硬表态绝不会在农民等群体利益上妥协，面对 50% 关税绝不退让，已准备好付出代价；美国对 瑞士产品加征39%关税生效，瑞士暂不反制并持续磋商；美国对进口金条加征关税，冲击瑞士精炼业。美联储动向，特朗普提名斯蒂芬·米兰任理事，任期 至2026年1月31日；美联储理事沃勒被视为下任主席最热门人选；特朗普曾多次批评鲍威尔不降息，财长贝森特已启动主席面试流程。宏观数据，美国上周 初请失业金人数升至一个月高点，暗示劳动力市场松动，强化美联储降息预期，市场预计下月降息25基点概率超91%。特朗普关税生效、贸易紧张及就业数 据强化降息预期，提振避险需求。 中国央行连续9个月增持黄金消息一出，截至7月末，黄金储备报7396万盎司，环比增加6万盎司。导致现货黄金短线突然上涨，一度站上3390美元/盎司。香 港第一金PPLI市场部负责人陈生：PPLDYJ 指出，预计下半年央行或从优化国际储备结 ...

基本面： 周五（8月8日）亚盘时段，现货黄金冲高回落收复隔夜上涨空间，目前暂交投于383美元附近。周四（8月7日）金价延续涨势，现货黄金强势突破3400美元 心理关口，最终收于3395.65美元/盎司。避险需求成为推动金价走高的核心动力。全球贸易紧张局势加剧、美国劳动力市场数据疲软以及美联储降息预期的 持续升温，共同为黄金提供了强劲支撑。与此同时，地缘政治的不确定性也为金价的上涨增添了助力。 8月7日，美国总统特朗普正式对数十个国家的进口商品实施高额关税，税率从10%到50%不等，将美国平均进口关税推至一个世纪以来的最高水平。这一政 策直接导致全球供应链的不确定性上升，市场对通胀和经济放缓的担忧加剧。瑞士、巴西、印度等主要贸易伙伴正紧急寻求更有利的协议，但谈判进展缓 慢。例如，巴西总统卢拉和印度总理莫迪均采取强硬姿态，表示不会轻易妥协，而特朗普对印度额外加征25%关税的决定，进一步加剧了市场紧张情绪。持 续的贸易紧张局势是推动避险需求的主要因素之一。黄金作为传统避险资产，在全球经济不确定性增加的背景下，吸引了大量资金流入。 特朗普的关税政策不仅影响了国际贸易格局，还可能对全球供应链造成深远冲击。华盛顿战略与国 ...

周四(8月7日)，因特朗普关税措施生效，以及美国疲软就业数据提高降息预期，避险需求提高，黄金价格在此前一个交 易日下跌后大幅上涨。FXStreet分析师Christian Borjon Valencia撰文，对金价技术走势进行分析。 现货黄金周四收盘大涨26.05美元，涨幅0.77%，报3395.30美元/盎司。 Valencia写道，随着美国最新一轮就业数据显示劳动力市场疲软，黄金价格周四逆转走势，录得强劲涨幅。因此，随着 美联储预计将在9月份恢复其宽松周期，投资者增加鸽派押注。 Valencia称，美国持续申请失业救济人数达到2021年11月以来的水平，助长美联储的鸽派押注。随着通胀持续高企，而 美国就业疲软，滞胀风险显现。 美国劳工部周四发布的数据显示，截至7月26日当周，续请失业金人数增加3.8万人，达到197万人。该数据在高位表明失 业人员找到新工作的难度加大。上周初请失业金人数也上升至22.6万，高于经济学家的预期。 Zaner Metals副总裁兼高级金属策略师Peter Grant表示，这些数据支撑了市场对美联储降息的预期。 上周，美国疲软的非农业就业数据提振降息预期。 根据Prime Mar ...

Group 1 - The price volatility of precious metals is expected to increase in the future due to recent changes in U.S. tariffs on gold bars and ongoing economic uncertainties [1][2] - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to weak U.S. employment data and concerns over stagflation, which have driven safe-haven demand [1][3] - The long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact despite short-term fluctuations, supported by ongoing global economic uncertainties and rising public debt [2][3] Group 2 - The recent imposition of tariffs on Swiss gold bars has led to increased premiums in COMEX gold futures, creating uncertainty about future tariff policies [1] - The upcoming talks between Russian President Putin and U.S. President Trump are seen as potential factors influencing precious metal prices [2] - Gold prices have recently tested significant resistance levels, with a need to confirm a breakout above $3,400 per ounce to sustain upward momentum [2][3]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market is currently experiencing a stalemate, with prices hovering around $1900, reflecting a tug-of-war between bulls and bears [1][2] - Bullish sentiment is supported by weak global economic data, particularly China's manufacturing PMI at 48.8, and ongoing geopolitical tensions [1] - Bearish pressure arises from a strengthening US dollar, bolstered by unexpectedly strong non-farm payroll data and indications from Federal Reserve officials suggesting further interest rate hikes [1] Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - The silver market is showing initial signs of a bullish reversal, with a clear breakout above a long-term resistance channel [3] - A W-bottom pattern is forming, particularly around the $24 support level, indicating potential upward movement [3] - The gold-silver ratio is declining from approximately 85 to 80, suggesting an increase in market risk appetite and a shift towards more aggressive assets like silver [4] Group 3: Industrial Demand for Silver - Silver demand is surging due to significant growth in the photovoltaic industry (over 30% year-on-year) and a 15% increase in demand from electric vehicle battery applications [4] - The combination of industrial demand and the perception of silver being undervalued is fueling the current bullish trend in the silver market [4] Group 4: Investment Strategies - For gold investors, a patient approach is advised, utilizing a strategy of light positions and opportunistic trading around the $1900-$1910 range, with close monitoring of potential breakout points above $1950 [5] - Silver investors are encouraged to consider buying on dips, particularly around the $24.2-$24.5 support level, with protective stop-losses set below $24 [6]

Core Viewpoint - Current gold prices are influenced by a combination of factors including a weak dollar, rising interest rate expectations, and increased demand for safe-haven assets due to geopolitical tensions and economic concerns [5][6][8]. International Gold Prices - Spot gold is reported at $3,379.73 per ounce as of August 6, showing a 0.18% increase from the previous day [1]. - COMEX gold futures are priced at $3,435 per ounce, reflecting a 0.25% rise [2]. Domestic Gold Prices - In the Shenzhen market, retail prices range from 756 to 780 yuan per gram, with minimal fluctuations noted [3]. - Major brand stores, such as Chow Tai Fook, quote prices at 1,015 yuan per gram as of August 7, with additional processing fees [4]. Recent Price Increases - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September has risen to 90%, with an expected total reduction of 100 basis points for the year, contributing to a weaker dollar and lowering the opportunity cost of holding gold [5]. - Weak U.S. non-farm payroll data for July, with only 73,000 jobs added, has heightened recession fears [6]. - Increased trade tensions, such as the Trump administration's tariffs on semiconductors, have escalated global trade friction [7]. - Tensions in the Middle East, particularly missile launches from Iran towards Israel, have driven demand for safe-haven assets [8]. Central Bank Gold Purchases - Global central bank gold purchases are projected to reach 1,045 tons in 2024, with China increasing its gold reserves for 20 consecutive months, providing long-term support for gold prices [9]. Market Reactions and Consumer Sentiment - Consumer behavior is showing a "buy high, not low" mentality, with sales increasing during price rises; for instance, a Shenzhen retailer reported a 30%-40% drop in sales after a price decrease [10]. - The psychological price point for consumers is concentrated around 600-700 yuan per gram, indicating that current prices are still above expectations [11]. Investment Trends - Asian buyers are actively purchasing physical gold, particularly in emerging markets, indicating stable demand [12]. - U.S. investors are cashing out, leading to a decrease in gold premiums as some funds realize profits at high levels [13]. Future Price Predictions - Short-term volatility is anticipated, with technical resistance levels between $3,380 and $3,400 per ounce; a breakthrough could push prices towards $3,500 [14]. - If the Federal Reserve does not cut rates as expected or if geopolitical risks ease, gold prices may retreat to a support level of $3,350 [15]. - Long-term bullish outlooks suggest that due to weakened dollar credibility, global stagflation risks, and continued central bank purchases, gold prices could enter a bull market range of $2,600 to $3,800 per ounce. Citibank has raised its target price to $3,500 per ounce, predicting a trading range of $3,300 to $3,600 [16]. Practical Recommendations - Ordinary investors are advised to avoid high leverage in gold futures and paper gold products due to high risks [17]. - Diversification is recommended, with physical gold constituting no more than 5% of household assets, in reference to the central bank's 15% foreign exchange reserve ratio [18]. - Regular investments in gold ETFs, such as Bosera Gold, can help mitigate risks [19]. Consumer and Recycling Insights - For essential buyers (e.g., weddings, gifts), current prices are more favorable compared to earlier highs of approximately 1,200 yuan per gram, making it a good time to purchase [20]. - The resale value of ordinary gold jewelry is about 10 yuan per gram, while high-weight gold bars have a lower discount of 2-3 yuan per gram [21].

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - COMEX gold prices reached a new high of $3534.1 per ounce as of August 8, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and trade tariffs [1] - China's gold reserves increased to 73.96 million ounces by the end of July, marking a continuous increase for nine months [1] - Citigroup, previously known for its bearish stance on gold, has shifted to a bullish outlook, predicting that gold prices may reach new historical highs due to a weakening dollar and inflation concerns related to tariffs [1] Group 2: Rare Earth Market Dynamics - China's rare earth exports in July totaled 5,994.3 tons, a 23% decrease from the previous month, ending a record high trend [1] - Pacific Securities highlighted China's leading position in the rare earth industry, emphasizing its international pricing power and the growing demand for high-performance rare earth permanent magnets [1] Group 3: Non-Ferrous Metals Sector Outlook - The non-ferrous metals sector is expected to benefit from policies aimed at stabilizing growth, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology planning to introduce measures for key industries [4] - As of July 31, 27 out of 60 listed companies in the non-ferrous metals index forecasted positive earnings for the first half of 2025, indicating strong operational resilience [4] - The non-ferrous metals sector has seen a year-to-date increase of 24.91%, making it the top-performing sector among 31 major industries [4] Group 4: Investment Opportunities in Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals index is currently at a historically low price-to-book ratio of 2.36, suggesting potential for valuation recovery [4] - The sector's composition includes significant weights in copper (24.5%), aluminum (15.3%), gold (14.4%), rare earths (11.5%), and lithium (8.2%), providing a diversified investment opportunity [6]