Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term: Supported by macro and fundamental factors, precious metal prices are expected to remain strong, but there is a risk of short - term correction due to over - heated market sentiment and strong US economic data. It is recommended to control positions [4]. - Long - term: The upward trend of precious metals remains unchanged. The strategy should focus on buying on dips or selling slightly out - of - the - money put options. Long - term investors are advised to allocate by buying on dips [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On January 14, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 1.07% at 1040.62 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 8.03% at 22763 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3.2 Price and Spread - **Price**: On January 14, London gold spot was at $4632.61/ounce, London silver spot was at $89.97/ounce, etc. The prices of gold and silver showed significant increases compared to January 13, with silver having a more substantial increase. For example, the price of London silver spot increased by 6.0% [3]. - **Spread**: The spreads of gold and silver, such as the difference between TD and SHFE active prices, and the difference between domestic and foreign markets, also changed. For example, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference was - 4.31 yuan/gram on January 14, with a change rate of 68.4% compared to January 13 [3]. 3.3 Position Data - As of January 13 (weekly data, latest up to January 6), the positions of non - commercial long and short positions in COMEX gold and silver changed. For example, the non - commercial long positions in COMEX gold decreased by 0.42% compared to January 12 [3]. 3.4 Inventory Data - On January 14, SHFE gold inventory was 100152.00 kilograms, an increase of 1.90% compared to January 13. SHFE silver inventory was 628696.00 kilograms, a decrease of 0.22% compared to January 13 [3]. 3.5 Interest Rates/Exchange Rates/Stock Markets - On January 14, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.01, with a change of 0.02% compared to January 13. The US dollar index, US Treasury yields, VIX, S&P 500, and NYWEX crude oil also had corresponding changes [3]. 3.6 Influencing Factor Analysis - The continuous spread of global geopolitical risks, such as the withdrawal of US personnel from Middle - East bases and the increase of Danish military forces in Greenland, has increased the demand for safe - haven assets, pushing up the prices of precious metals. Silver has also been boosted by macro and fundamental factors, with stronger price increases in the domestic market [4].

近期，供应风险与避险需求共振催化，有色矿业板块开启结构性行情， "家里有矿，2025年涨超有色"的矿业ETF（561330）大涨超3%，资金持续布局，近 20日净流入超8亿元。 供应风险与避险需求共振，有色金属开启结构性行情 近期智利Mantoverde铜矿工潮引发市场关注。Capstone Copper Corp.旗下该矿约22%的劳动力计划自1月2日起罢工，公司表示将以安全方式逐步降低负荷， 预计维持30%左右的产量，并继续保持谈判。该矿2025年铜产量指引为2.9万–3.2万吨，若罢工延长，可能对明年铜矿供应造成压力，进一步加剧市场紧张预 期。 铝市场近期表现强劲，价格与利润同步上行。当前全球铝库存处于低位，为铝价提供支撑，而铜铝比仍位于历史高位，预示铝价具备补涨潜力。美国地区铝 现货升水居高不下，若后续因电力紧张导致减产，铝价的向上弹性或将进一步释放。 贵金属方面，尽管短期面临指数再平衡与保证金上调等技术性压力，但弱于预期的就业数据及持续的地缘不确定性继续推动金价走强。2025年全球黄金ETF 资金流入规模创历史纪录，央行购金行为依然活跃。在美联储降息预期与避险需求叠加的背景下，贵金属整体维持牛市格局 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The precious metals market is strong. Due to the US inflation data in December being lower than expected, and continuous geopolitical and economic uncertainties driving the safe - haven demand, gold and silver continue to be in a strong position. The short - term fluctuations of precious metals are intensifying, and it is recommended that long - position holders continue to hold their positions while paying attention to risk control [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - COMEX gold futures rose 0.76% to $4,633.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 7.93% to $93.19 per ounce. Shanghai gold rose 0.46% to 1,039.72 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver rose 4.40% to 23,270.0 yuan per kilogram [1]. 3.2. Important Information - As of January 14th, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 1,074.23 tons. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust decreased by 78.94 tons from the previous day to 16,242.22 tons [1]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 5%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 95%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 26%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 72.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 1.2% [1]. - US retail sales in November increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding the expected 0.5%. The producer price index in November increased by 0.2% month - on - month, in line with the forecast, and increased by 3% year - on - year, higher than the forecast of 2.7% [1]. - On January 14th, a US official said that due to the escalating tensions in the Middle East, the US was evacuating some personnel from major US military bases as a preventive measure. Some US military personnel stationed at the Al - Udeid Air Base in Qatar were advised to evacuate before the evening of the 14th. The US embassy in Qatar had not responded to this news, and many countries urged their citizens to leave Iran [1]. - On January 14th, the US Supreme Court did not rule on the legality of Trump's tariffs. The latest Fed Beige Book showed that the economy is moderately warming up, employment is stable, and tariff costs are starting to be passed on to consumers [1]. 3.3. Market Logic - The US retail sales in November increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding the expected 0.5%. The CPI data in December showed stable inflation, and the core CPI was slightly lower than the market expectation. The possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in January is almost zero. The CME changed the margin setting method for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium contracts on January 12th, which may trigger frequent margin calls during high - price or high - volatility periods. The weakening of the US dollar index on January 14th, along with safe - haven demand, led to the rise of COMEX gold and silver [1][2]. 3.4. Trading Strategy - The short - term fluctuations of precious metals are intensifying. Long - position holders are advised to continue holding their positions and pay attention to risk control [2].

Group 1 - U.S. Treasury prices have risen due to safe-haven demand and bond supply considerations, leading to a drop in the 30-year Treasury yield to its lowest level of the year [1] - As of Wednesday's close, yields across various maturities of U.S. Treasuries fell by 2 to 5 basis points, with the 30-year yield dropping below 4.80% for the first time this year [1][3] - Factors contributing to this rebound include a decline in U.S. stock indices, additional safe-haven demand related to potential military action against Iran, and the Supreme Court's postponement of a ruling on tariff policies, which improved the fiscal situation in the U.S. [3] Group 2 - Strong demand in recent Treasury auctions and a routine bond buyback operation targeting 20 to 30-year maturities also played a role in the yield decline [3] - Earlier in the week, yields had risen as traders pushed back expectations for the next Federal Reserve rate cut to later in 2026, influenced by recent employment and inflation data [3] - However, the options market shows an increasing number of traders are dismissing the possibility of a Fed rate cut in 2026, betting instead that rates will remain unchanged throughout the year [4]

专题：ATFX外汇专栏投稿 1月14日，ATFX：昨日公布数据显示，随着美国政府停摆导致11月通胀率被人为压低的一些扭曲因素逐 渐消退，美国12月消费者物价上涨，受房租和食品价格攀升带动，这巩固了美联储本月将维持利率不变 的预期。美国劳工统计局称，12月消费者物价指数（CPI）环比上涨0.3%，12月CPI同比上涨2.7%。 由于美国通胀数据巩固了对美联储今年降息的押注，以及持续的地缘政治和经济不确定性推动了避险需 求，周二的黄金和白银继续创高位。周二，金价在早盘一度飙升至每盎司4634.55美元的新高后，白银 价格一度突破每盎司89美元，创下历史新高，随后涨幅有所回落。 今晚市场继续关注美国12月PPI和零售销售，预计12月PPI年率为2.6%。同时段的11月零售销售也是关注 重点，预计月率将摆脱停滞录得0.4%的增速，主要考虑假期消费增加的关键提振。其中，零售销售报 告是指引黄金的关键，若月率显著高于预期 0.4%：反映消费强劲，可能暗示经济韧性，降低市场避险 需求，且可能延缓美联储降息节奏，对贵金属短线利空。若数据疲软，可能加剧对经济担忧，强化避险 情绪，支撑金银价格，可能尝试挑战新高，需要关注数据公布 ...

贵金属狂欢盛宴，现货白银正迎来史诗级"完美风暴"。 今年以来，白银价格已上涨近25%。 赶超英伟达！ 受美联储降息预期、鲍威尔遭起诉以及地缘局势升温影响，市场避险需求显著提升。 其中，现货白银盘中大涨5%报91.31美元/盎司，纽约期银日内也涨超5%突破91美元/盎司。 周三，银价一度强势突破91美元大关，为历史上首次。 截至发稿，涨幅有所回落，现货白银现涨超3%，交投于90美元附近。 这增强了市场对美联储货币政策转向的押注。 与此同时，美联储主席鲍威尔遭起诉的消息，再次引发了投资者对美联储独立性的担忧。 地缘政治紧张局势加剧，加大了避险需求。 不久前，特朗普威胁对伊朗采取"非常强有力的行动"，美国敦促公民立即离开伊朗。 这也被视为美国可能很快采取行动的最新信号。 当前，白银总市值已经突破5万亿美元大关。 CompaniesMarketCap数据显示，受银价提振，白银已超越英伟达成为全球第二大资产。 黄金以32.162万亿美元的市值位居榜首，芯片巨头英伟达以4.523万亿美元的市值滑落至第三。 白银狂飙背后是多重因素的共振。 首先，昨日美国公布的通胀数据表现疲软，市场加大了对美联储降息的预期。 美国12月核心 ...

一、从"外交摩擦"到"风险定价" 过去一段时间，市场对中东局势的关注度明显升温。但真正让情绪发生质变的，是美国总统特朗普周二抛出的那 句极具象征意味的话——"帮助正在路上"。 在特朗普公开喊话伊朗抗议者、宣布暂停所有官方会谈后，原本停留在外交施压层面的博弈，已被市场重新定价 为一场可能失控的地缘风险。阿萨交易学社分析师Zero指出，这种变化并不只体现在新闻标题里，也迅速反映在 油价和避险资产的波动中，黄金自然再次被推到了聚光灯下。 特朗普的表态释放了一个信号：美方在伊朗问题上的耐心正在下降。当白宫内部密集讨论应对选项、军事"强硬选 项"被反复提及，市场最不喜欢的不确定性正在上升。 二、 为什么黄金会提前反应？ 随着特朗普对中东局势的强硬发声，全球避险情绪再度紧绷。今天，阿萨带你深度拆解：在地缘政治与通胀预期 的双重驱动下，黄金的交易逻辑发生了哪些本质变化？ 阿萨在这里要提醒大家需要警惕一种常见误区：并非所有地缘政治冲突都能推动金价持续单边走高。 溢价回吐风险： 短期情绪冲击和中长期趋势之间存在差异。如果局势迅速降温，或者重回谈判框架，黄金的避险 溢价同样可能快速回吐。 博弈心理： 当前黄金走强，更多是对"风险 ...

| 环比 | 数据指标 数据指标 | 项目类别 最新 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） 13.4↑ 沪银主力合约收盘价（日，元/千克） | 1040.620 期货市场 | 22763 | +1759.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) -2954.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 100,679.00 | 1,438.00 | +68.00↑ | | | 主力合约成交量:沪金 +3666.00↑ 主力合约成交量:沪银 | 201,087.00 | 1,276,402.00 | +134583.00↑ | | | 仓单数量:沪金(日,千克) 1869↑ 仓单数量:沪银(日,千克) | 100152 | 628,696 | -1370↓ | | | 上金所黄金现货价 12.98↑ 华通一号白银现货价 | 1038.00 现货市场 | 22,423.00 | 1473.00↑ | | | 沪金主力合约基差(日,元/克) -0.46↓ 沪银主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -2.62 | -340. ...

黄金资讯—— 1月14日，基准的10年期美债收益率最终收报4.1840%，对美联储政策利率敏感的2年期美债收益率收报 3.5450%。由于美国通胀数据不及预期，以及持续的地缘政治和经济不确定性推动了避险需求，现货黄 金再创历史新高，但交易员获利了结导致黄金回吐日内全部涨幅，最终收跌0.26%，报4585.95美元/盎 司；现货白银触及89.12美元的历史高点后回落，最终收涨2.14%，报86.91美元/盎司。因特朗普承诺对 任何与伊朗做生意的国家征收25%的关税，市场担忧伊朗在动荡期间可能减少出口，国际原油走高。 WTI原油最终收涨2.11%，报61.09美元/桶；布伦特原油最终收涨1.79%，报65.44美元/桶。 黄金最新行情走势—— 昨日黄金市场区间整理，早盘开盘在4595.5美元/盎司，后行情先回落给出4572美元/盎司，后行情强势 拉升，日线给出历史新高4635.8美元/盎司，后尾盘获利了结回落，日线最低给到了4569美元/盎司，后 整理日线最终收线在了4585.5美元/盎司，后，日线以一根孕线倒锤头形态收线，而这样的形态收尾 后，黄金维持在高位这当中。综合来看，刘长景总结：黄金初中回落，在回弹45 ...

莲花资产管理有限公司首席投资官洪灏表示，白银正受益于市场资金向大宗商品的广泛轮动。他称，白 银的涨势"今年仍有很大上行空间，年末价格有望达到每盎司150美元"。 白银去年的表现优于黄金，涨幅高达150%，这得益于10月出现的逼空行情、伦敦市场持续的供应紧张 格局，以及大量的投机性买盘涌入。交易员们同时还在等待美国232条款调查的结果，该调查结果可能 导致美国对白银进口加收进口税。 紫金天风期货股份有限公司分析师刘诗瑶表示："对白银加收进口税的担忧，已导致大量白银滞留美 国，限制了其流入全球市场的规模。" 贵金属价格的最新一轮上涨，凸显出投资资金的强劲流入态势，从上海到纽约，市场投机兴趣激增。自 去年12月下旬以来，纽约商品交易所和上海期货交易所的白银交易量始终维持在高位。 受针对美联储的抨击、美国或进一步降息的预期，以及紧张的地缘政治局势等多重因素推动，贵金属市 场掀起一轮强劲涨势。白银价格首次突破每盎司90美元关口，黄金也逼近历史最高水平。 这一白色金属的价格一度飙升5.3%，触及每盎司91.5535美元，而黄金价格距离历史峰值仅差不到10美 元。美国12月核心通胀数据并未如市场担忧的那般高企，但经济学家指 ...