全球主要经济体6月PMI终值公布。 上周国际市场风云变幻，伊朗与以色列达成停火协议，市场风险偏好有所改善。美股剑指历史新高，道 指周涨3.82%，纳指周涨4.25%，标普500指数周涨3.44%。欧洲三大股指延续涨势，英国富时100指数周 涨0.28%，德国DAX 30指数周涨2.92%，法国DAX 30指数周涨1.34%。 本周看点颇多，美国月度就业数据将受到关注，因为市场正在权衡美联储是否会在下个月开始降息。在 欧洲，焦点将集中在全球央行行长在葡萄牙辛特拉举行的欧洲央行论坛上的评论，以及欧元区通胀数 据。此外，欧美主要经济体6月PMI终值表现将反映关税压力下各国商业活动潜力。 非农能否决定7月降息 本周，美国6月非农就业数据将受到密切关注，因为就业市场疲软的证据可能会增加外界对美联储可能 很快降息的猜测。 到目前为止，美联储主席鲍威尔一直敦促谨慎降息，因为关税有引发通胀的风险。本周他将亮相葡萄牙 辛特拉，出席欧央行论坛并讲话。荷兰国际集团ING首席国际经济学家奈特利（James Knightley）在一 份报告中表示："美联储可能需要看到更明确的疲软证据，即就业增长放缓和失业率上升，才能尽早采 取行动。" ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - Short - term international situation is volatile, and risk preference drives market sentiment back. A - shares have a significant increase, and different futures varieties in various sectors present different trends and investment opportunities [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - The large - finance sector continues to reach new highs, and A - shares rise with increased trading volume. It is recommended to buy the deeply discounted 09 contracts on dips in the CSI 1000 variety and sell the 09 call options near 6300 to form a covered combination [2]. Bond Futures - Near the end of the month, the bond market may anticipate the central bank's restart of bond purchases. The overall pattern of bond futures is short - term volatile but generally strong. In the unilateral strategy, bond futures can be appropriately bought on adjustments, and in the spot - futures strategy, attention can be paid to the positive arbitrage strategy of the TS2509 contract and the steepening of the yield curve [2]. Precious Metals - The impact of geopolitical conflicts fades. The expectations of fiscal and monetary easing in Europe and the United States boost precious metals. It is recommended to continue the strategy of selling out - of - the - money options on both sides of gold, and silver prices are driven by easing expectations in the short term [2]. Shipping Index Futures - It is recommended to watch cautiously. The 08 contract of the container shipping index (European line) is expected to fluctuate between 1650 - 1850 [2]. Steel Futures - Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Attention should be paid to the decline in apparent demand. For unilateral operations, it is mainly a wait - and - see approach, and for arbitrage, the strategy of going long on finished products and short on raw materials can be considered [2]. Iron Ore Futures - It is recommended to try shorting on rebounds, with the upper pressure level around 720 [2]. Coking Coal Futures - It is recommended to go long on coking coal at low prices or go long on coking coal and short on coke [2]. Coke Futures - It is recommended to go long on coking coal and short on coke [2]. Base Metals (Copper, Aluminum, Zinc, etc.) - For copper, the main contract is expected to fluctuate between 78000 - 80000; for aluminum, between 19600 - 20600; for zinc, between 21500 - 22500. Each metal has its own supply - demand and price characteristics, and corresponding investment strategies are provided [2]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Crude oil: The market is mainly oscillating, and short - term long positions can be considered at low prices. For other chemical products such as PTA, PF, etc., different investment strategies are proposed based on their supply - demand and price trends [2]. Agricultural Futures - Different agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, palm oil, etc., have different market trends. For example, soybeans may have short - term corrections, and different trading strategies are given for each product [2]. Special and New Energy Commodity Futures - For special commodities like glass and rubber, and new energy commodities like polysilicon and lithium carbonate, corresponding price trends and investment strategies are provided [2].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - **US Manufacturing and Services PMI**: The S&P US Manufacturing PMI for June recorded at 52, exceeding expectations of 51, while the Services PMI was at 53.1, slightly below the expected 53 and previous value of 53.7 [1][2] Core Insights - **US Existing Home Sales**: In May, existing home sales increased by 0.8% month-over-month, contrary to expectations of a 1.3% decline. This marks the weakest sales pace for May since 2009. Inventory rose by 6.2% to 1.54 million units, the highest level in five years [3][4] - **Stock Market Volatility**: The implied volatility of the S&P 500 increased in July, particularly on July 3, ahead of the June non-farm payroll data release [6][7] - **Geopolitical Risk and Oil Prices**: Goldman Sachs estimates a geopolitical risk premium of $12 per barrel for oil prices. If oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz drop by half for a month, Brent crude could reach $110 per barrel. China is identified as the main destination for oil flows from this region [9][10][17] - **Impact of Oil Price Surge**: JPMorgan reports that most geopolitical-driven sell-offs are temporary. Historical data shows that after geopolitical risk events, the S&P 500 index typically rises by 2%, 3%, and 9% over the next 1, 3, and 12 months, respectively [18][19] Additional Important Information - **S&P 500 Earnings Expectations**: The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for the S&P 500 has reached a historical high, now exceeding $281 for the next twelve months [23] - **Japanese Bond Market**: Long-term bond yields in Japan have eased from record highs as the government plans to reduce bond issuance more than previously expected [24][25] - **Inflation Drivers**: Research from the Federal Reserve indicates that low inflation post-financial crisis was primarily supply-driven, while high inflation during the pandemic was more demand-driven. Since mid-2022, both demand and supply contributions to inflation have significantly decreased [30][32]

Group 1: Currency Market Overview - The Euro is consolidating near the weekly high above 1.1600 against the US Dollar [1] - The British Pound is stabilizing around 1.3600 amid the latest rally [1] - The Japanese Yen continues its strong rebound from the lowest point since May 13, supported by ongoing buying pressure [1] - The Australian Dollar is recovering towards 0.6500 due to improved global risk sentiment [1] - The New Zealand Dollar has risen over 1%, rebounding approximately 2.5% from Monday's low [1] - The US Dollar is weakening against the Canadian Dollar [1] Group 2: US Economic Indicators - Trump has called for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates by at least 2 to 3 percentage points [2] - Fed officials Bowman and Goolsbee have indicated support for a rate cut in July if inflation pressures are controlled [2] Group 3: Eurozone Economic Data - Germany's June manufacturing PMI reached a 34-month high, with services and composite PMIs also hitting 3-month highs [3] - France's June manufacturing PMI fell to a 4-month low, with services and composite PMIs at 2-month lows [3] - The German Industrial Association forecasts a 0.3% contraction in the German economy by 2025, revised from a previous estimate of 0.1% contraction [3] - ECB officials have suggested potential rate cuts despite oil market volatility, with Lagarde noting a generally weak economic outlook [3] Group 4: Japanese Economic Outlook - Japan's PMI supports the Bank of Japan's potential rate hike in October [4] - Japanese officials support a revised bond issuance plan [5] - The Prime Minister aims to increase Japan's GDP from 400 trillion yen to 1000 trillion yen by 2040, targeting a real wage growth rate of 1% or more [5] Group 5: Technical Analysis - The GBP/USD maintains strong momentum, having broken the significant resistance level at 1.3520, with targets at 1.3600 and 1.3655 [6] - The USD/JPY has broken below the 100-hour moving average support, testing the critical support range of 145.40-145.00 [6] - The US Dollar Index remains below key moving averages, indicating a bearish trend, but a short-term breakout above the 50-day moving average could trigger a short-covering rally [6]

短期内，关税进一步推高了通胀，压缩了居民的实际收入；从中长期来看，如果找不到新的增长动力， 美国经济可能会陷入滞胀的风险——即低增长伴随高通胀。政策制定者需要在抑制通胀的同时避免过度 紧缩，并且白宫的贸易政策也将直接影响未来的经济前景。 标普全球市场情报首席商业经济学家Chris Williamson指出："6月份的PMI初值显示美国经济在第二季度 末依然保持增长，但前景充满了不确定性。"随着过去两个月通胀压力显著增加，企业不得不通过提价 来应对关税带来的成本上涨，而这将逐渐传导至消费者层面。 总之，美国经济目前正处于"增长放缓加通胀升温"的复杂局面中，PMI数据既体现了经济的韧性，也暴 露了潜在风险。美联储选择观望，等待更清晰的信号以指导下一步行动，而贸易战和政策的不确定性仍 是决定未来走向的关键因素。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京6月24日电标普全球最新发布的6月采购经理人指数（PMI）显示，尽管制造业和服务业仍 处于扩张区间，但增速有所减缓，反映出美国经济在面对内外挑战时的脆弱性。 制造业PMI为52，略高于市场预期的51，但与上月持平，表明制造业的增长势头勉强维持。服务业PMI 为53.1，虽 ...

Market Insights - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has noted the emergence of carry trade in the market, with the Hong Kong-US interest rate spread widening to 3% to 4%, pushing the Hong Kong dollar close to the weak end of its peg at 7.85 [1] - HKMA's Chief Executive emphasized the importance of stablecoins in payment applications over asset appreciation, indicating that expectations for high investment returns from stablecoins are unrealistic [1] - The Federal Reserve's Vice Chair Bowman suggested support for a potential interest rate cut as early as July if inflation continues to decline or if the labor market weakens [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. June S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary reading held steady at 52, the highest since February, exceeding market expectations [2] - The Eurozone's June composite PMI preliminary reading remained at 50.2, slightly below the expected 50.5, with the services PMI returning to the 50 mark while manufacturing PMI stayed at 49.4, marking 36 months without growth [2] - Germany's June composite PMI preliminary reading increased from 48.5 to 50.4, while France's composite PMI decreased from 49.3 to 48.5 [3] Global Market Dynamics - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.89% to 42,581.78 points, the S&P 500 increased by 0.96% to 6,025.17 points, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed by 0.94% to 19,630.97 points [4] - U.S. crude oil futures fell by 8.95% to $67.23 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures dropped by 8.37% to $69.16 per barrel [5] - The COMEX gold futures decreased by 0.04% to $3,384.40 per ounce, while silver futures rose by 0.09% to $36.05 per ounce [6] Regulatory Developments - The Thai Stock Exchange temporarily halved the daily price fluctuation limit for listed companies, effective until June 27 [7] - Central banks in India and Malaysia have reduced their derivative positions aimed at weakening their currencies, while South Korea's National Pension Fund has ended its five-month support for the Korean won [7]

美国制造业6月继续保持稳定扩张步伐，但价格压力显著上升，两项关键通胀指标攀升至2022年7月以来最高水 平，反映出企业正将包括进口关税在内的更高成本转嫁给消费者。 周一，美国最新公布的PMI数据显示（调查数据收集的时间是6月12日至20日）： 美国6月Markit制造业PMI初值52，与5月持平，高于预期的51，为2月以来最高水平。该指数高于50表明制造业活 动扩张。 美国6月Markit服务业PMI初值53.1，低于前值53.7，高于预期的52.9，创两个月新低。 美国6月Markit综合PMI初值52.8，低于前值53，高于预期52.1，创两个月新低。 通胀压力加剧，尤其是在制造业 通胀方面，制造业和服务业都面临显著的价格上涨，其中制造业尤为明显。 "虽然6月的商业活动和新订单继续增长，但在商品和服务出口下降的背景下，增长已显得疲弱。" 由于关税因素，材料采购价格指数大幅上升5.4点至70。销售价格指数上升至64.5，均达到2022年7月以来的最高 水平，显示制造商正在将成本上涨压力传导至下游。 约三分之二的制造商将原材料成本上涨归因于关税，而超过一半的制造商则将销售价格上涨归因于关税。 然而，服务业价格 ...

金十数据6月23日讯，标普全球市场情报首席商业经济学家Chris Williamson表示，6月份的PMI初值显 示，美国经济在第二季度末继续增长，但前景仍然不确定，而过去两个月通胀压力急剧上升。尽管6月 份商业活动和新订单继续增长，但由于商品和服务出口双双下降，增长有所减弱。此外，尽管国内需求 （尤其是制造业）已经增强，以鼓励更高的就业，但这在一定程度上是由库存积累所驱动，而库存增加 往往与对价格上涨和关税导致的供应问题的担忧有关。这种提振可能会在未来几个月消退。与此同时， 商品价格再次大幅上涨，随着企业将更高的关税相关成本转嫁给消费者，上涨速度加速至三年来的最高 水平。服务提供商绝不可能不受这种关税的影响，同样报告了价格的另一次上涨，通常与食品等投入物 的关税有关。因此，这些数据证实了人们的猜测，即美联储将在一段时间内保持按兵不动，以评估经济 的弹性，以及当前这轮通胀将持续多久。 PMI显示美国经济在二季度末继续增长，但前景仍不明朗 ...

美国6月标普全球制造业及服务业PMI初值将于十分钟后公布。 ...

Economic Data Overview - Upcoming key economic data includes the June PMI for the US, Eurozone, and Japan, with specific dates for release noted[2][12][13] - Recent US retail sales fell by 0.9% in May, below the expected 0.6%, with previous values revised down[3][10] - Eurozone's May CPI final value matched expectations at 1.9%, with core CPI at 2.3%[3][10] Employment and Consumer Confidence - Initial jobless claims in the US were 245,000, aligning with expectations, while continuing claims slightly decreased to 1.945 million[5][25] - Consumer confidence indicators are set to be released next week, which may impact market sentiment[2][12] Price Trends - Global commodity prices increased by 0.8% week-on-week, while US gasoline prices rose to $3.02 per gallon, up 1.1%[6][27] - The US import price index showed a 0% change in May, exceeding the expected decline of 0.2%[3][10] Financial Conditions - US financial conditions index remained stable at 0.292, while the Eurozone index slightly declined to 0.905, indicating tighter conditions[6][31] - Long-term bond spreads narrowed between the US and Japan, as well as between the US and Germany, reflecting changing market dynamics[6][37]