Group 1 - The funding environment turned loose after the quarter-end, with overnight and 7-day funding rates dropping to 1.3% and 1.4% respectively, indicating potential for further decline in short-term rates [1] - The manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI for June showed a rebound, suggesting a stable economic foundation, while long-term rates may continue to fluctuate [1][10] - The bond market experienced a mixed performance, with the 10-year government bond yield showing slight fluctuations throughout the week, ultimately down by 0.5 basis points [2][5] Group 2 - A total of 47 bonds were issued last week, amounting to 513.2 billion yuan, with government bonds accounting for 28 billion yuan [6] - The upcoming week is expected to see the issuance of 51 bonds totaling 268.79 billion yuan, with no government bonds planned for issuance [6] - The U.S. Treasury yields rose overall, with the 10-year yield increasing by 7 basis points to 4.35%, reflecting a shift in market expectations [7] Group 3 - The bond market is currently in a favorable window for long positions, but the potential for profit is limited, suggesting a focus on yield spread trading [13] - The current market dynamics indicate a shift, with increased activity in long-duration bonds reflecting strong investor sentiment [14] - The central bank's supportive stance on liquidity and the continued decline in money market rates are seen as key certainties for the market [14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Regarding the bond market in July, the report is relatively optimistic and suggests maintaining medium to high durations [3][52][53]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The bond market in July is expected to undergo a transformation from quantitative to qualitative changes, driven by the accumulation of favorable factors in the fundamental, liquidity, and policy aspects, leading to new lows in yields [3][7][52]. - The main risk in the bond market in July is whether the equity market will experience a continuous upward trend. However, as long as the equity market does not rise significantly and continuously, its impact on the bond market may be mainly at the emotional level and may not affect the market trend [3][52]. 3. Summary by Directory Short - term Interest Rates Have Not Fully Priced in Potential Easing - Since June, the funding price has been continuously loose, with DR001 dropping to around 1.35%. However, the performance of short - and medium - term interest rates has been relatively moderate, not fully pricing in potential rate cuts and central bank bond purchases [8]. - The central bank's policy orientation is somewhat unclear due to conflicting policy goals. It has gradually downplayed explanations of liquidity operations, but since March, its policy of prioritizing cost reduction remains unchanged. The funding price in June did not reach the steady - state level within the current policy framework, and further rate declines are expected in July [7][10][12]. - The probability of a rate cut in Q3 cannot be ruled out, but it is likely to occur after August. The funding in July is likely to remain loose. Although the current funding price may be approaching the equilibrium level, it is still necessary to focus on whether DR001 can break through the 1.3% lower limit or the stable state of DR007. As the funding remains loose and the expectation of a Q3 rate cut intensifies, it will drive short - term interest rates lower [3][13][18]. Allocation Demand Is Expected to Be Gradually Released - In June, the demand from allocation players was insufficient, which was the main reason why long - term bonds did not break through significantly. However, factors dragging down allocation demand may gradually fade in July [19]. - From the perspective of banks, the top of the certificate of deposit (CD) rate appeared in early June, and the CD rate continued to decline, indicating that the banks' liability pressure has been significantly relieved. However, banks' willingness to allocate bonds has not significantly increased, which may be affected by the half - year - end factor and the limited returns from allocating long - term bonds in a flat yield curve environment. As the impact of the previous deposit rate cut gradually emerges and short - term interest rates are expected to decline further, banks' allocation willingness is expected to gradually increase after the half - year - end [27]. - Although the central bank did not restart bond purchases in June, the large - scale banks continued to increase their net purchases of short - term bonds in the secondary market. The expectation that this is a precursor to the central bank's bond purchases cannot be refuted, which is expected to bring potential downward pressure on short - term interest rates [30]. - In June, the allocation willingness of insurance institutions and wealth management products for interest - rate bonds was weak, but they increased their allocation of credit bonds and commercial bank perpetual bonds. With the possible further decline in the insurance policy - setting rate in Q3 and the expected decline in wealth management product yields, the constraints on their allocation behavior are expected to ease. If the funding remains loose in July and institutional liability costs continue to decline, allocation demand is expected to be gradually released [31][35]. The Downward Pressure on the Fundamentals May Further Appear in Q3 - Since Q2, the domestic economic momentum has declined, but it still maintains some resilience. The market's expectation of further policy easing has weakened, which is an important reason for the narrow - range fluctuation of long - term interest rates. However, the downward pressure on the fundamentals in Q3 may further emerge [36]. - In terms of exports, although the China - US trade negotiations are ongoing, the probability of a short - term adjustment to the tariff rate is limited. The boost from the front - loading of exports is gradually weakening, and the downward pressure on export growth may increase after July [37]. - In terms of domestic demand, consumption growth may slow down marginally due to the over - consumption in May and the withdrawal of consumption subsidies in June. Real estate investment growth may remain relatively low, and although the issuance of new special bonds has accelerated, its increase may be limited. Manufacturing investment growth has also declined since Q2 [39]. - The control of capacity expansion may have a short - term negative impact on economic sentiment if there is no incremental demand. The June manufacturing PMI index, although rising for the second consecutive month, is still below the boom - bust line, and the sub - items reflect that business entities are still cautious about the future situation. If the policy maintains a "supporting but not boosting" tone, the pressure on the fundamentals in Q3 may further increase [47][48]. The Bond Market in July Is Expected to Undergo a Transformation from Quantitative to Qualitative Changes; Pay Attention to the Risk Appetite Changes in the Equity Market - With the accumulation of favorable factors in the fundamental, funding, and policy aspects, the bond market in July is expected to experience a transformation from quantitative to qualitative changes, driving yields to new lows. - As long as the equity market does not rise significantly and continuously, its impact on the bond market may be mainly at the emotional level and may not affect the market trend. The report is relatively optimistic about the bond market in July, expecting the yield curve to continue to steepen downward. It is recommended to maintain a combination of 3 - year policy - bank bonds, long - term and ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds, and 5 - year credit bonds, and to pay attention to old 3 - 5 - year policy - bank bonds and medium - and long - term secondary perpetual bonds [3][52][53].

证券研究报告 债券研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | | | 央行国债买卖披露方式调整 逆回购净回笼无改资金宽松 —— 流动性与机构行为周度跟踪 250706 [[Table_R Table_Report eportTTime ime]] 2025 年 7 月 6 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 歌声ue 3央行国债买卖披露方式调整 逆回购净回笼无改资金宽松 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 7 月 6 日 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金隅 大厦B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 2 执业编号：S1500520050002 联系电话：+86 18817583889 邮 箱： liyishuang@cindasc.com [➢Table_Summary] 货币市场：本周央行公开市场净回笼流动性 13753 亿元。周一跨半年当日资 金面明显收紧，周二后尽管央行逆回购持 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - In the period from June 20 to June 27, 2025, the central bank conducted a total of 116.28 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with 117.52 billion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1.24 billion yuan. The inter - bank funds prices were differentiated, with DR001 down 0.59BP to 1.3683% and DR007 up 20.27BP to 1.6968%. The primary market for interest - rate bonds issued 86.764 billion yuan, with a total repayment of 8.6988 billion yuan for maturing bonds, and a net financing of 78.0652 billion yuan. The yields of 1 - year and 3 - year Treasury bonds decreased, while those of 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year Treasury bonds increased, and the 10Y - 1Y term spread widened from 28.44BP to 30.10BP [1]. - From June 23 to June 29, 2025, in the primary market for credit bonds, 1,049 new bonds (including inter - bank certificates of deposit) were issued, with a total issuance scale of 120.9212 billion yuan, a decrease of 48.8649 billion yuan compared with the previous period. The total repayment of credit bonds was 157.2077 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 36.2865 billion yuan. Most of the credit bond yields at maturity increased. Asset - backed securities had the largest proportion in terms of the number of issuances, and the financial industry had the largest number of bond issuances [2]. - From June 20 to June 27, 2025, the three major US stock indexes rose, with the Dow up 3.82%, the S&P 500 up 3.44%, and the Nasdaq up 4.25%. European stock indexes also generally rose. The yields of US Treasury bonds decreased overall, the US dollar index fell 1.52%, and non - US currencies strengthened. The prices of crude oil and gold declined during the week [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Interest - rate Bonds 3.1.1 Liquidity Observation - From June 20 to June 27, 2025, the central bank had a net withdrawal of funds, and the inter - bank funds prices were differentiated, with DR001 down and DR007 up. The exchange funds prices generally increased [15]. 3.1.2 Primary Market Issuance - From June 23 to June 29, 2025, the primary market for interest - rate bonds had an increase in net financing, and the issuance of local government bonds increased. The total issuance was 86.764 billion yuan, with a net financing of 78.0652 billion yuan [27]. 3.1.3 Secondary Market Trading - From June 20 to June 27, 2025, the yields of Treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds were differentiated, and the term spreads widened. For Treasury bonds, the 10Y - 1Y term spread widened from 28.44BP to 30.10BP; for policy - bank bonds, it widened from 19.20BP to 20.50BP [37]. 3.2 Credit Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market Issuance - From June 23 to June 29, 2025, the issuance of credit bonds decreased compared with the previous period. Asset - backed securities had the largest proportion in terms of the number of issuances, and the financial industry had the largest number of bond issuances. The AAA - rated bonds accounted for 61.35% of the total issuance scale, and the issuance was mainly in the 3 - 5 - year term [48]. 3.2.2 Secondary Market Trading - From June 20 to June 27, 2025, most of the yields of urban investment bonds at maturity increased, and the yields of medium - and short - term notes were differentiated [58]. 3.2.3 One - week Credit Default Event Review - From June 23 to June 29, 2025, one enterprise's credit bonds defaulted [60]. 3.3 Observation of Major Asset Classes 3.3.1 Rise of European and American Stock Indexes - From June 20 to June 27, 2025, the three major US stock indexes and European stock indexes generally rose, and some Asian - Pacific stock indexes also increased [62]. 3.3.2 Decline of US Treasury Bond Yields - From June 20 to June 27, 2025, the yields of US Treasury bonds decreased overall, and the 10Y - 1Y term spread changed to 32.00BP [64]. 3.3.3 Weakening of the US Dollar Index and Strengthening of Non - US Currencies - From June 20 to June 27, 2025, the US dollar index fell 1.52%, and non - US currencies strengthened [68]. 3.3.4 Decline of Crude Oil and Gold Prices - From June 20 to June 27, 2025, the prices of crude oil and gold declined. The COMEX gold futures price fell 2.79%, and the Brent crude oil price fell 12.00% [70]. 3.4 Investment Suggestions - The bond market in July may show a pattern of strong fluctuations. The central bank's second - quarter regular meeting signaled continued easing, flexible adjustment, and structural efforts in monetary policy. It is recommended to adopt a riding strategy for interest - rate bonds and a strategy of extending the duration of high - grade bonds for credit bonds [4].

智通财经APP获悉，日本30年期国债拍卖的需求水平表明，政策制定者在抑制债券市场波动方面取得了一 些成功。投标倍数达到3.58，为2月份以来的最高水平，远高于6月份的2.92。但最低投标价格低于预期，表 明部分市场人士仍持谨慎态度。日本各期限债券收益率保持上涨，30年期国债收益率上升2个基点，至 2.904%，政府债券期货保持亏损。 市场反应较为平淡，这与日本5月份发行长期债券以及周三英美债券收益率飙升引发的市场动荡形成了鲜明 对比。自日本财务省宣布削减长期债券发行量的计划以来，日本国债收益率的上行压力有所减轻。 西太平洋银行金融市场策略主管Martin Whetton在谈到此次拍卖结果时表示："虽然不算太出色，但也足够 好了。由于市场对此消息传递得很清楚，所以很可能是一种'于传言时买入，于事实时卖出'的情况。但展望 未来，随着市场逐渐适应供应减少，这种情况应该是有建设性的。" 日本财务省6月份表示，将从本月起至2026年3月底，将20年期、30年期和40年期债券发行量减少3.2万亿日 元(合220亿美元)。与此同时，日本央行表示，将放慢缩减购债规模的步伐。 此次日本30年期国债拍卖的投标倍数较12个月平均值 ...

野村在最新研报中表示，日本政府最初设定的“完全取消美国关税”的目标已经无法实现，在谈判中难以获得政治上的完胜。考虑到美国并无意完全取消对特定国家的关税，且其要求包含了进口美国大米等政治敏感项目，任何协议的达成都很可能推迟到日本参议院选举（7月20日）之后。最终的解决方案可能是双方在互相升级（例如美国加征关税）后，再做出妥协并各自宣布胜利。需要警惕日本面临的两大核心政治风险，一是日本显著增加其国防预算作为对美国的让步，二是日本政府谈判失利导致执政党自民党在参议院选举受挫。野村预测日本股市将继续承压，而债券市场可能获得支撑。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has shown a trend of recovery in the first half of the year, particularly in the second quarter, with bond funds regaining lost ground and achieving historical net value highs [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Market Performance - The short-term pure bond fund index and the medium to long-term pure bond fund index increased by 0.64% and 0.95% respectively in the second quarter, reaching new highs [1]. - Several pure bond funds, including those under Huian Fund, have achieved record net values, with funds like Huian Zhongduan Bond Fund and Huian Yongfu 90-Day Holding Period Bond Fund setting new historical records [1][2]. Group 2: Fund Specifics - Huian Yongfu 90-Day Holding Period Bond A (010577) has a cumulative net value of 1.0925 yuan since its establishment on May 10, 2022, achieving positive returns for 12 consecutive quarters [2]. - Huian Yongli 30-Day Holding Period Short Bond A (015008) has a cumulative net value of 1.0812 yuan since its establishment on March 10, 2022, with positive returns for 13 consecutive quarters [2]. - Huian Short Bond A (006519) has a cumulative net value of 1.1830 yuan since its establishment on November 7, 2018, and has delivered positive returns for 26 consecutive quarters [2]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Major brokerages expect the bond market to maintain a fluctuating upward trend in the second half of the year, with Western Securities predicting that interest rates may break previous lows [3][4]. - The Huian Fund's fixed income research team believes that the economic outlook is stable, and the supportive stance of the fundamental and monetary policies may continue to support a downward trend in interest rates [4].

Group 1: Bond Market Overview - The total bond issuance in the market reached 27.29 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of nearly 24% [1] - Among the total, government bonds accounted for 16.93 trillion yuan, while credit bonds totaled 10.35 trillion yuan [1] - Specific figures include 7.88 trillion yuan in national bonds, 5.49 trillion yuan in local bonds, 55 billion yuan in central bank bills, and 349.68 billion yuan in policy financial bonds, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 35.58%, 57.18%, and 19.23% for national, local, and policy financial bonds [1] Group 2: ABS Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, the ABS market saw 1,090 new projects with a total issuance of 974.9 billion yuan, marking a 27% increase year-on-year [3] - Credit ABS issuance decreased by 23%, with 102 new projects totaling 95.9 billion yuan [3] - The largest issuance came from non-performing loans, with 80 projects amounting to 36.2 billion yuan, followed by personal auto loans with 10 projects totaling 34.3 billion yuan [3] Group 3: Government Bond Issuance Plans - The Ministry of Finance plans to reissue 240 billion yuan of book-entry interest-bearing government bonds, including 109 billion yuan of 7-year bonds at a coupon rate of 1.79% and 131 billion yuan of 10-year bonds at a coupon rate of 1.67% [5] Group 4: Central Bank Operations - The central bank conducted a 1.31 trillion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation, maintaining the operation rate at 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 275.5 billion yuan due to the maturity of 4.065 trillion yuan in reverse repos [7] Group 5: Local Government Bond Issuance - Hunan Province successfully issued its third batch of special bonds, totaling 9.856 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance of 23.854 billion yuan for land reserve special bonds, accounting for 44.56% of construction project funding [8] Group 6: Corporate Bond Issuance - Zhoukou Investment Group plans to issue 3.593 billion yuan in corporate bonds, which has been accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange [9] - The Zhumadian Urban Construction Investment Group completed the issuance of 400 million yuan in corporate bonds with a 2.72% interest rate [9] - Tailong Pharmaceutical intends to register 800 million yuan in short-term financing bonds to replace bank loans and supplement working capital [10] Group 7: Market Sentiment and Predictions - The West Fixed Income team predicts that credit bond yields are likely to remain volatile, with the interest rate spread expected to reach its lowest point in the third quarter [20] - The Hua'an Fixed Income team anticipates that August may see a peak in the supply of interest rate bonds, with a significant reduction in supply pressure in July [20]

Group 1 - The 30-year government bond ETF (博时) has shown a price increase of 0.22% as of July 1, 2025, with a recent price of 112.38 yuan, and a cumulative increase of 1.11% over the past month as of June 30, 2025 [3] - The trading volume for the 30-year government bond ETF was active, with a turnover rate of 15.58% and a transaction value of 1.135 billion yuan, averaging daily transactions of 2.776 billion yuan over the past week [3] - According to Zheshang Securities, the bond market's bullish sentiment is expected to increase in Q3 2025 due to factors such as declining funding rates, potential resumption of government bond purchases by the central bank, and rising probabilities of interest rate cuts [3] Group 2 - As of June 30, 2025, the 30-year government bond ETF has achieved a net value increase of 12.61% over the past year, ranking 5th out of 411 in the index bond fund category, placing it in the top 1.22% [4] - The fund has demonstrated strong performance metrics, including a maximum monthly return of 5.35%, a longest winning streak of 4 months, and a historical one-year profit probability of 100% [4] - The fund's management fee is 0.15% and the custody fee is 0.05%, with a tracking error of 0.049% over the past month [4] Group 3 - The top ten weighted bonds in the Shanghai 30-year government bond index (950175) include various special and coupon bonds, with the top ten accounting for 100% of the index [5]

Group 1 - The report indicates a slight decrease in leverage in the interbank bond market, with a mixed performance in the primary market and overall positive sentiment in the secondary market, leading to an increase in bond duration and active trading of ultra-long bonds [2][4][7] - In the funding market, the demand for expansion has cooled, with a decrease in net inflow for major borrowing parties and an increase in net inflow for major lending parties. The total balance of repos in the interbank market has risen, while the leverage ratio has slightly decreased [4][7][8] - The primary market saw a divergence in bidding multiples, with a rise in the bidding multiple for 10-year government bonds, while the multiples for policy bonds decreased. The spread between primary and secondary prices has widened [17][19] Group 2 - The secondary market has shown active trading in ultra-long bonds, with an increase in turnover rates for 30-year government bonds and a rise in the average duration of medium- and long-term pure bond funds. The total borrowing volume for bonds has decreased, and the proportion of active bonds has also declined [26][30] - Major buyers have increased net purchases of ultra-long bonds, while net purchases of short, medium, and long-term bonds have decreased. Major sellers have increased net sales of medium and long-term bonds, while the selling pressure on short and ultra-long bonds has weakened [26][30][33] - The report highlights that large commercial banks have continued to net buy short-term bonds within 3 years, while maintaining significant net selling pressure on ultra-long bonds of 10 years and above [34][36] Group 3 - In June, the data on wealth management did not show a significant seasonal decline, with a slight increase in wealth management scale during the week of June 22. The total wealth management scale decreased by 204.2 billion yuan, primarily due to a reduction in fixed-income products [34][36] - The fund scale increased by 299.9 billion yuan in June, with both equity and bond funds seeing significant increases. However, the issuance of new bond funds saw a slight decline compared to the previous week [36][37]