美国银行知名策略师哈内特最近将新兴市场称为全球市场中的"下一个牛市"。 全球市场向来牵一发而动全身。此前，穆迪调降美国信用评级仅导致美国"股债汇三杀"一日游，不少华尔街大机构高管开始警示美元资产投资者过于自满的 风险，并认为全球金融系统正在发生一些"更深层次"的事情。 话音刚落，被视为传统避险资产的日债、美债拍售相继遇冷，后者导致美国周三再度遭遇"股债汇三杀"。同时，黄金、比特币价格却升至历史新高。此外， 随着更多投资者选择"卖出美国"交易，分析师认为新兴市场有望开启一轮牛市。 美债、日债吸引力下降的逻辑 周三，美国再度遭遇股债汇三杀：美股三大股指遭遇四月以来最严重抛售、长期美债收益率出现两位数基点单日涨幅、美元指数再现将近50点的大跌单日， 失手关键点位100。其中，美债再度成为大跌的"风暴眼"。当日拍售的20年期美债的最高中标利率达到5.047%，史上第二次超过5%，并录得近6个月来最大 尾部利差，投标倍数也从近六个月平均水平2.57降至2.46。如此惨淡的拍售数据发生在穆迪调降美国信用评级后的首场长债拍售中。本应是避险资产的长期 美债需求遇冷，再度引发了投资者恐慌情绪，带动美股美元同步大跌。 对美国高债 ...

这家美国最大的银行本周还成立了"地缘政治中心"，研究俄罗斯、乌克兰、中东和全球重整军备。 戴蒙表示，该部门"既是为我们服务的，也是为了教育客户。客户一直在问我们，我们应该为这个国家 做些什么。你如何看待风险?" 摩根大通等机构已表示，特朗普政策的不确定性可能导致客户离场观望。摩根大通商业和投资银行联席 首席执行官Troy Rohrbaugh本周早些时候表示，与去年同期相比，其投资银行业务费用可能会下降15% 左右，降幅超过分析师的预期。 戴蒙还补充说，美国必须"解决赤字问题"，他也理解投资者为何可能会削减美元资产。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙不能排除美国经济陷入滞胀的可能性，因为美国面 临地缘政治、赤字和价格压力带来的巨大风险。"我不认为我们处于最佳状态，"戴蒙在上海举行的全球 中国峰会上接受采访时表示。他还补充道，美联储在决定货币政策之前观望是正确的。 今年以来，美联储官员一直维持利率不变。美联储官员表示，他们认为通胀和失业率双双上升的风险加 大。 本月早些时候，美国和中国同意在90天内大幅降低关税，以敲定一项新协议。分析师和投资者预计，美 国总统唐纳德·特朗普对华关税在90天的休战期 ...

如果"美债=无风险资产"的共识崩塌，避险资产"变脸"，你该如何配置资产？ 当避险资产变风险资产 进入5月中旬，除美债外，全球市场剧本被反复改写。 5月12日，《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》发布后，美股显著上涨，同时黄金和美债价格同步下跌。市场对经济前景的担忧得到阶段性缓解，资金自传统 避险资产转向风险资产。从另一角度看，避险资产（如黄金）在此时一度转为风险资产。 谁能想到，在一系列重大事件的催化下，全球市场的剧本反复改写，唯独美债持续承压。 美东时间5月21日，美国财政部160亿美元的20年期国债拍卖结果不佳。市场反应剧烈，10年期美债收益率跃升至4.6%，进而拖累美股。交易员押注10年期 美债收益率将升至5%，凸显市场对美国通胀、财政赤字以及长期债务风险的忧虑。 桥水基金创始人达里欧在社交平台上发文称，债券市场供需失衡的剧烈变化，往往预示着更广泛的经济风险。他警告，美国政府可能通过印钞应对债务压 力，这将引发货币贬值并侵蚀债券持有者的利益。这与20年期美国国债拍卖疲软的表现相呼应，反映出市场对美债可持续性的深层焦虑。 5月12日，《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》发布后，10年期美债收益率迅速攀升至4.48%， ...

我们是中国的长期投资者。 摩根大通CEO戴蒙：必须为滞胀做好准备。 对持续的软着陆持怀疑态度。 ...

摩根大通CEO戴蒙：必须为滞胀做好准备。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the risk of "stagflation" in the U.S. remains high, leading to increased demand for gold among investors [1] - U.S. inflation data has not yet reflected the impact of tariffs, as there is still inventory buffering and businesses have not yet passed on costs through price increases [1] - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. fell by 4.8 points to 52.2 in April, marking the lowest level since August 2022, indicating that consumer confidence is being affected by tariffs [1] Group 2 - The gold ETF (code: 518800) tracks the spot price of gold (Au99.99 contract) and is suitable for investors seeking asset preservation and inflation hedging [2] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Cathay Gold ETF Link A (000218) and Cathay Gold ETF Link C (004253) for exposure to gold [3]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is reacting negatively to Trump's tax cut plan, raising concerns about the potential for significant increases in the budget deficit over the coming years [1][9] Group 1: Bond Market Reactions - The 20-year U.S. Treasury auction showed unexpected weakness, with the winning yield surpassing 5%, marking one of the worst performances in five years, which heightened concerns about increasing debt [1] - Following the auction results, the 30-year Treasury yield surged to 5.1%, nearing a 20-year high, while the 10-year yield rose to 4.595% [2] - Investors are flocking to safe-haven assets like gold and Bitcoin to hedge against rising government debt and inflation risks, with long-term bond yields increasing by approximately 14 basis points since last Friday [5] Group 2: Political and Economic Implications - Conservative Republican lawmakers are beginning to oppose Trump's tax cut plan, citing rising bond yields as a warning signal [7] - The current U.S. debt is unprecedented, with interest payments exceeding the defense budget, and the total public debt has surged from under $14 trillion in 2016 to nearly $30 trillion [9] - The market's sharp reaction indicates that investors are unwilling to tolerate continuous government borrowing, seeking to enforce fiscal discipline through higher borrowing costs [9] Group 3: Broader Economic Concerns - The rise in bond yields is driven by fears of deficits and higher inflation expectations rather than strong economic fundamentals [10] - There is a mismatch between signals from the stock and bond markets, with stock investors largely ignoring concerns about increasing deficits and inflation [11] - Retailers, including Walmart and Target, are planning to raise prices due to tariffs, contributing to inflationary pressures, which has led to a decline in stock prices [11]

2025.05. 22 本文字数：1482，阅读时长大约2分钟 不过花旗集团认为，华盛顿不太可能"积极追求"疲软的美元，但随着美国与贸易伙伴达成降低关税 的协议，美元最终将下跌。 荷兰国际集团ING外汇策略主管特纳（Chris Turner）表示，七国集团会议上用于描述货币政策的措 辞极有可能保持不变，但任何调整都可能被证明是煽动性的，并打击美元。 摩根士丹利在最新发布的市场展望中积极看多美元资产，上调了对美国股市和美国国债的评级，但认 为随着美国相对于其他国家的经济增长溢价逐渐消退，以及美国与其他国家之间的债券收益率差距缩 小，美元将继续走弱。 "我们现在预测，美元指数在未来12个月内将再下跌9%，至91点，其中美 元对其避险同行欧元、日元和瑞士法郎的疲软最为明显。" 报告预测，到2026年第二季度，欧元/美 元将达到1.25，美元/日元将达到130。 美联储警告经济前景 第一财经记者汇总发现，近期多位美联储官员表达了对经济不确定性的担忧。 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 自穆迪将美国信用评级从Aaa下调至Aa1以来，美元开启新一轮跌势。周三，美元指数再次失守100 关口，美联储官员对经济前景和商业情绪的谨慎言 ...

1、 《 黄金价格再度飙涨》摘要 5、 《 公募新规落地影响市场生态》摘要 ■ 5月21日上午，现货黄金上破3300美元/盎司大关，为5月9日以来首次。 ■ 短期波动核心驱动： 地缘冲突升温+美国一季度GDP负增长推升避险需求，但贸易摩擦缓和构成短 期利空，金价或陷入3000-3300美元区间震荡。 ■ 国内消费强韧性： 4月金银珠宝零售额同比+25.3%（环比+14.7%），国内黄金消费景气度独立于 国际金价波动，上游珠宝商渠道扩张红利仍在释放。 ■ 机构观点分歧： 看多逻辑 ： 滞胀风险（通胀上行+经济下行）+美联储降息周期+央行购金潮支撑 黄金长期趋势，调整后仍具配置价值。 谨慎信号 ： 当前金价已处高位，贸易战暂缓或触发获利了 结，警惕短期技术性回调风险。 ■ 关键 价格锚点 ： 花旗大幅下调3个月目标价至3150美元（原3500美元），技术面关注3000美元支 撑位与3300美元阻力位突破方向。 2、 《 美国拟对东南太阳能设备征收最高3521%的关税 》摘要 ■ 关税 冲击强度 分化： 东南亚太阳能产业链面临极端税率分化：柬埔寨厂商税率高达3521%（因拒 配合调查），马来西亚仅34%，晶科/天合 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced overall fluctuations today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.21% to 3387.57 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.44%, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.83%. The Sci-Tech Innovation Board Index fell by 0.27% [1] - The trading volume in both markets was approximately 11,734.78 billion yuan, an increase of about 37.75 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - The market sentiment appears to be weak in the short term, with more stocks declining than rising, as nearly 3,400 stocks fell across the two markets [1] Coal Industry Analysis - The coal sector has seen a significant decline this year, with the main reasons being deteriorating fundamentals leading to a double hit on earnings and valuations. The main business revenue of the coal index component stocks dropped by 18.45%, and net profit fell by 28% [3] - The coal price, a key variable for coal company profitability, has decreased significantly, with thermal coal prices dropping from 830 yuan/ton to around 610 yuan/ton, a decline of 26.5%, and coking coal prices down by 24.9% [3] - Despite the increase in dividend yield from 5.79% to 6.29%, the overall sentiment remains pessimistic regarding future growth, as high dividends often indicate a lack of growth expectations [3] Gold Market Insights - Tensions in the Middle East have led to a rebound in gold prices, with gold stock ETFs and gold fund ETFs rising by 4.15% and 3.19%, respectively [4][5] - The increase in gold prices is supported by rising demand for safe-haven assets due to geopolitical uncertainties and changes in tariff policies that have exacerbated inflation risks in the U.S. economy [5] - China's central bank has continued to increase its gold reserves, with the latest data showing a rise to 73.77 million ounces, marking the sixth consecutive month of increases [5] Future Outlook - The coal industry is showing signs of demand recovery, but profitability remains under pressure due to ongoing price declines. Short-term gains do not yet indicate a definitive upward trend [7] - Investors are advised to maintain a cautious stance and monitor any signs of stabilization in coal prices to identify potential investment opportunities in coal ETFs [7]