【导读】沪指盘中突破3600点，基金公司解读后市投资机会 在基金公司看来，当前市场或仍处于上涨趋势中，不能轻易言顶。与以往相比，此次行情基础更为扎 实，市场赚钱效应有望逐步扩散。 多因素驱动 7月23日，沪指、上证50指数等盘中突破3600、2800点，续写新篇章。 本轮指数突破有何独特之处？后续走势将如何展开？ 业内认为，近期市场的上涨是多重利好因素共同推动的结果。 对于近期的上涨，长城基金认为有几个驱动因素：一是"反内卷"政策不断深化。从去年7月中央政治局 会议首次提到"反内卷"到现在已有一年时间，范围不断扩大，从上游资源品、"新三样"到快递、航空 等，而不是像上一轮供给侧改革主要集中在传统行业的去产能。"反内卷"政策的推出及执行，有望上修 PPI和A股盈利预期。 二是世界级超级工程—总投资达1.2万亿元的雅鲁藏布江下游水电项目宣布开工，对顺周期板块的情绪 拉动较大，一定程度上可支撑指数上行。 三是中国资产重估大趋势不改，积极因素不断累积，包括世界多极化趋势、美国例外论受到质疑，中国 新质生产力出现高光时刻和国内丰富的政策工具储备等。 近期，A股市场表现强劲。沪指自7月9日成功突破3500点后，连续9个交 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "fixed income +" category has regained popularity in the market, with over 90% of funds achieving positive returns this year, and the highest performance nearing 30% [1][2]. Performance Summary - As of July 22, over 90% of "fixed income +" funds (including mixed bond funds and secondary bond funds) have achieved positive returns, with an average net value growth rate of 3.50% and 15 funds exceeding 15% growth [3]. - Many "fixed income +" funds saw significant increases in their share volumes in Q2, with over 70 funds doubling their shares. The Qianhai Kaiyuan Dingrui Fund's shares increased by over 63 times, while several other funds saw increases between 10 to 35 times [3]. Market Outlook - Industry experts express optimism for the second half of the year, focusing on sectors such as technology growth, manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, and consumer goods [1][4]. - The expectation of continued loose monetary policy suggests favorable investment opportunities in the bond market [1][7]. Investment Strategy - "Fixed income +" funds have reduced their equity positions while increasing allocations to bonds and cash assets, with a slight decrease in convertible bond positions [3][5]. - Fund managers are optimistic about maintaining high positions and balanced layouts, focusing on globally competitive Chinese companies in key sectors [6]. - Specific strategies include maintaining low equity positions with a focus on dividends, large-cap, and undervalued stocks, while adopting a "low price + double low" strategy for convertible bonds [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in the cyclical resource sector are in a valuation trough, which is expected to be positively impacted by three major policy benefits: (1) anti-involution; (2) debt resolution; (3) infrastructure investment [11][13][15] - The Hong Kong dividend assets have a higher dividend yield compared to A-shares, with a long-term higher dividend premium [12][19] - The investment value of the National New Hong Kong Stock Connect SOE dividend strategy includes: (1) high dividend and low valuation, emphasizing absolute return attributes; (2) focusing on leading SOEs in petrochemicals, communications, transportation, and coal; (3) significant long-term return advantages; (4) long-term performance superior to the overall Hong Kong market, characterized by high dividends and high free cash flow [12][24][41] Group 2 - The industry distribution focuses on high-dividend SOEs in cyclical sectors, with significant weights in oil and petrochemicals (29%), communications (23%), transportation (14%), and coal (11%) [28][30] - The long-term performance of the National New Hong Kong Stock Connect SOE dividend index shows a cumulative increase of 118% since early 2017, closely approaching the 129% increase of the Hang Seng High Dividend Yield Index [5][36] - The constituent stocks of the National New Hong Kong Stock Connect SOE dividend index have outperformed the overall Hong Kong market, with an average net profit growth rate of 12% since 2015, significantly higher than the overall Hong Kong average of 4.7% [6][41] Group 3 - The Invesco Great Wall CSI National New Hong Kong Stock Connect SOE Dividend ETF (520990) is designed to closely track the performance of the CSI National New Hong Kong Stock Connect SOE Dividend Index, providing investors with a tool to invest in the Hong Kong SOE dividend sector [50][51] - The fund was established on June 26, 2024, and aims to minimize tracking deviation and error to achieve returns similar to the underlying index [50][51]

Core Viewpoint - The second quarter of 2025 saw a significant net subscription of 34.64 billion units in the China Securities White Wine Index Fund C, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards short-term trading opportunities in the white wine sector, despite a 13.47% decline in the index [2][4][6]. Group 1: Fund Performance - The China Securities White Wine Index Fund C maintained a stable position with a 94.5% portfolio allocation, successfully tracking its benchmark [2]. - The net subscription for the China Securities White Wine Index Fund A was 2.34 billion units, significantly lower than that of Fund C, highlighting a preference for the latter among investors [4]. - The top holdings in the fund include Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, Kweichow Moutai, and Wuliangye, which together account for approximately 58.76% of the fund's net asset value [2][3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The white wine industry is experiencing pressure on demand, prompting companies to lower their annual growth targets while seeking to stabilize prices [2][9]. - Investors are increasingly viewing white wine stocks as high-dividend assets, with current dividend yields exceeding 4%, making them attractive for short-term speculative trading [9]. - Notable stock price rebounds were observed in leading white wine companies since July, with significant monthly increases in share prices for Luzhou Laojiao, Yanghe, and Wuliangye [9]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The C class fund is more suitable for short-term investments due to its lower subscription fees compared to the A class fund, which is better for long-term holdings [7][8]. - The strategy of increasing dividend payouts by white wine companies has made mid-year reporting periods critical for attracting investor interest [9].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the Chinese economy, focusing on GDP growth, internal and external demand, and government policies impacting economic development [1][2][3][23]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **GDP Growth**: In Q2, China's GDP grew by 5.2%, with a nominal GDP growth rate slowing to 3.9%, indicating price pressures and declining industrial capacity utilization [1][3]. 2. **Internal Demand Trends**: Both consumption and fixed asset investment are on a downward trend, with June retail sales growth dropping to 4.8% from 6.4% in May, and fixed asset investment growth falling to 2.8% [1][4][5]. 3. **Government Role**: The government plays a crucial role in economic development, with significant investment in equipment and tools, and broad infrastructure growth at 8.9% [1][6]. 4. **External Demand Dynamics**: Despite increased tariffs from the U.S., China's exports maintained high growth, with Q2 export growth reaching 7.5%, attributed to currency fluctuations and export diversion strategies [1][7][8]. 5. **Policy Focus for H2**: The economic outlook for the second half of the year anticipates increased pressure on internal demand, with policy expectations centered on real estate and consumption [1][10][23]. Additional Important Content 1. **Urban Development**: The Central Urban Work Conference emphasized stable development, human-centered policies, and high-quality growth, shifting focus from expansion to improving existing urban areas [1][9]. 2. **Real Estate Investment Issues**: Real estate investment is facing accelerated decline, with slow implementation of related policies and limited new investment in affordable housing [1][11][15][16]. 3. **Consumer Subsidy Impact**: The national subsidy program has seen a temporary halt in some areas due to rapid fund usage, affecting consumer spending in sectors like home appliances [1][17][18]. 4. **U.S. Import Trends**: U.S. import growth is expected to slow down, which may negatively impact China's export performance in the latter half of the year [1][19][20][23]. 5. **Stock and Bond Market Outlook**: The outlook for stocks remains positive for dividend assets, while bond yields are expected to remain low. The dollar index is projected to rebound in Q3, putting pressure on the RMB [1][25]. This summary encapsulates the essential points from the conference call records, highlighting the current economic landscape, government interventions, and future expectations for the Chinese economy.

Core Viewpoint - The global equity market is expected to improve in the second half of 2025, but uncertainties and policy changes remain [1] Market Resilience - The A-share market experienced volatility driven by "uncertainty" in the first half of the year, with market fears stemming more from unpredictability than from the disturbances themselves [2] - The actual interest rate is currently at a favorable level, and if it remains in the 1%-2% range, the probability of positive returns for the CSI 800 index in the next year is expected to increase significantly [2][3] Asset Allocation Insights - Chinese investors currently allocate about 12% of their household assets to stocks and funds, compared to approximately 40% for American households, indicating a significant gap [3] - The long-term investability of the Chinese capital market is improving, with an increase in stock buybacks and dividend distributions by listed companies [3] Structural Opportunities - Three main asset categories are highlighted: dividend assets benefiting from declining real interest rates, new productivity focusing on technology-driven private enterprises, and new consumer trends aligned with experiential consumption [4] - The potential for revaluation of private enterprises is emphasized, with recent policies signaling a recovery in capital expenditure and return on equity (ROE) [4] Investment Strategy - The core strategy involves focusing on long-duration assets, which can be categorized into stable cash flow types and sustainable growth types [4] - Diversification in investment is stressed, with a focus on thorough fundamental research to identify individual stocks rather than betting on sectors [7] Future Outlook - The transformation of the Chinese economy is expected to continue, with long-term investment value in the stock market gradually becoming apparent despite short-term uncertainties [6] - The relationship between the Hong Kong and A-share markets is viewed as complementary rather than competitive, with each market serving different capital flows [6]

Group 1 - The water and electricity industry is increasingly attracting various types of public funds due to its low valuation and high dividend characteristics, leading to a diverse range of fund products heavily investing in leading water power stocks like Changjiang Electric [1][2] - Changjiang Electric has a market capitalization of 721.8 billion yuan and has achieved positive stock price returns in 10 out of the last 12 years, making it a favored choice among different fund types, including A-share, Hong Kong stock, and global QDII funds [2][3] - Various thematic funds, such as dividend, state-owned enterprise, and environmental funds, have also heavily invested in Changjiang Electric, with some funds allocating over 9% of their portfolios to this stock [2][3] Group 2 - The bond fund sector, which typically has lower stock allocation needs, has also shown interest in Changjiang Electric, increasing its stock allocation from 0.16% to 6.22% within a few months, indicating strong preference for this stock [3] - The fundamental resilience of water power stocks, along with characteristics like corporate governance, cash flow, and low valuation, aligns with the high-quality stock selection criteria of public funds [4][5] - Changjiang Electric is projected to achieve an operating revenue of 84.492 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 8.12%, and a net profit of 32.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 19.28% growth, which is attractive in the current economic environment [4] Group 3 - The public fund industry is increasingly launching high-dividend products and index funds, which will likely lead to continued investment in quality water power stocks, supporting the real economy [7][8] - The market for clean energy generation is expected to expand significantly, driven by the overall increase in electricity demand and the transition to renewable energy sources, highlighting the long-term investment value of the green power sector [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Hang Seng High Dividend Yield Index (HSSCHKY) has shown a slight decline of 0.37% as of July 17, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks, indicating a cautious market sentiment towards dividend stocks [2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 16, 2025, the Hang Seng High Dividend Yield Index has seen a weekly increase of 1.26% [2]. - The latest price for the Bosera Hang Seng High Dividend ETF (513690) is 1.04 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 0.57% [2]. - The ETF has recorded a turnover rate of 2.81% with a transaction volume of 132 million yuan [2]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - CITIC Securities suggests that leading insurance companies are actively increasing their allocation to dividend stocks, which may lead to a gradual bullish trend in dividend assets [2]. - Guotai Junan Securities highlights the value of dividend assets in a broadly declining interest rate environment, recommending stocks with a dividend yield above 3% and low ROE volatility, particularly in sectors like refining, white goods, and infrastructure [3]. Group 3: Fund Flow and Size - The Bosera Hang Seng High Dividend ETF has a current size of 4.708 billion yuan [3]. - Over the past 10 trading days, there have been net inflows on 6 days, totaling 518 million yuan, with an average daily net inflow of 51.75 million yuan [3]. - The latest margin buying amount for the ETF is 11.6998 million yuan, with a margin balance of 14.6994 million yuan [3]. Group 4: Performance Metrics - The Bosera Hang Seng High Dividend ETF has achieved a net value increase of 39.11% over the past two years, ranking 97 out of 2230 index equity funds [4]. - The ETF's highest monthly return since inception is 24.18%, with an average monthly return of 4.96% during rising months [4]. - As of July 11, 2025, the ETF has a Sharpe ratio of 1.55 for the past year [4]. Group 5: Index Composition - The top ten weighted stocks in the Hang Seng High Dividend Yield Index account for 28.54% of the index, with notable stocks including Yanzhou Coal Mining (01171) and Hang Lung Properties (00101) [5][7].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the civil aviation industry in China, focusing on passenger transport and airline performance in 2025 [1][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Passenger Transport Growth**: In Q2 2025, China's civil aviation passenger transport volume is expected to reach approximately 186 million, representing a 15% increase compared to 2019 and a 7% increase compared to 2024 [1]. 2. **Flight Volume Increase**: The overall flight volume is projected to grow by 4.4% year-on-year compared to 2024 and by 5.96% compared to 2019 [1]. 3. **Ticket Pricing Trends**: Average ticket prices from February to June 2025 are slightly lower than those in 2019 and 2020, with oil-inclusive ticket prices remaining stable compared to 2024 [2]. 4. **Profitability Outlook for Airlines**: Major airlines like Air China, China Southern Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines are expected to significantly reduce losses in Q2 2025, nearing breakeven [3]. 5. **Spring Airlines Performance**: Spring Airlines is projected to maintain its scale economy profit between 550 million to 580 million, which is stable or slightly increased compared to the previous year [3]. 6. **Demand and Capacity**: The demand in the aviation sector remains strong, with a reported 375,600 passenger flights from April 1 to July 12, 2025, marking a 3.3% increase year-on-year [4]. 7. **Price Adjustments and Competition**: The Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) is addressing "involution" in competition, which may positively impact ticket prices as the peak travel season approaches [5]. 8. **Eastern Airlines Ranking Adjustment**: The ranking of China Eastern Airlines has been adjusted to a higher position among the three major airlines due to its significant capacity growth [6]. 9. **Hua Xia Airlines Stock Performance**: Hua Xia Airlines has seen a stock price increase of 11.08% since 2005, attributed to expected significant improvements in performance in 2025 [7]. 10. **Operational Efficiency**: The airline's operational metrics, including passenger turnover, have shown substantial growth, with a 33.21% increase in available seat kilometers compared to 2024 [8]. 11. **Subsidy Impact**: The revision of the regional airline subsidy management policy has positively influenced the airline's profitability, with other income reaching 1.293 billion in 2024 [8][9]. Additional Important Insights - **Cost Management**: Airlines are focusing on cost control, which may enhance profitability despite fluctuations in toll revenue and operational challenges [12][13]. - **Market Dynamics**: The overall market dynamics indicate a potential for improved profitability in the airline sector, driven by demand recovery and strategic adjustments in pricing and capacity [5][6][7]. - **Investment Recommendations**: The call suggests monitoring specific airlines and infrastructure companies for potential investment opportunities, particularly those with strong cash flow and dividend capabilities [21][24]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections discussed during the conference call, highlighting the civil aviation industry's current state and future outlook.

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the **dividend assets** sector, particularly in the context of the **transportation and infrastructure** industries, including highways and ports [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Trends**: The market has shown significant differentiation since the beginning of the year, with high-beta growth sectors leading the way. However, the pursuit of dividend assets remains strong [1]. 2. **Investment Logic**: The report emphasizes the investment logic behind dividend assets, highlighting the stability and high dividend yield characteristics of certain sectors, such as highways and ports [2][3]. 3. **Low Profit Environment**: The low profit environment is expected to persist, making the cost-effectiveness of dividend asset allocation crucial. As of May 16, 2025, the yield on 10-year Chinese government bonds is 1.68%, while the dividend yield of the index is 6.37%, indicating a substantial spread of 7.69% [4]. 4. **Long-term Capital Inflows**: There is a continuous push for long-term capital to enter the market, which is expected to provide additional funds for dividend asset sectors. Initiatives have been launched to encourage various long-term funds, including commercial insurance and social security funds, to increase their market participation [5][6]. 5. **Fund Management Innovations**: New management fee structures and performance benchmarks for actively managed funds are being implemented to enhance long-term investment strategies [6][7]. 6. **Stock Buyback Policies**: Companies are increasingly committing to high dividend payouts, with several firms announcing shareholder return plans. For instance, a company has committed to maintaining high dividend ratios from 2024 to 2026 [9][10]. 7. **Regulatory Adjustments**: Recent regulatory changes aim to encourage insurance companies to invest more in the stock market by adjusting risk factors and enhancing long-term investment incentives [8][12]. 8. **Highway Sector Performance**: The highway sector has experienced a decline in toll revenue, with a reported decrease of approximately 2.8% year-on-year for a specific company. However, the overall highway sector is expected to show improvement in toll revenue in 2024 [16][17]. 9. **Port Sector Dynamics**: In Q1, the total cargo storage volume at national ports increased by 3.2%, with container storage volumes rising by 8.8%. However, certain commodities, such as iron ore and coal, saw declines in throughput [18][19]. 10. **Railway Sector Insights**: The railway sector has shown mixed results, with passenger transport performing better than freight. In Q1, passenger volume increased by 5.9%, while freight volume saw a slight decline [20][21]. Additional Important Content - The report suggests that the ongoing reforms in the education sector and the adjustments in pricing mechanisms for public services could enhance the investment value in related sectors, particularly in highways [14][15]. - The overall sentiment is that the demand for dividend assets will continue to grow, driven by multiple factors including interest rates, long-term fund inflows, and enhanced market management practices [22]. This comprehensive analysis provides insights into the current state and future outlook of the dividend assets sector, particularly within the transportation and infrastructure industries.