Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking a continuation of the previous decisions from January and March [1] - The Fed's current stance reflects a wait-and-see approach amid high uncertainty, with potential for interest rate cuts in the second half of the year [1][4] - Inflation in the U.S. is expected to show a slow downward trend, with the overall PCE price index increasing by 2.3% year-on-year in March, approaching the 2% target [1][2] Group 2 - Factors contributing to the decline in U.S. inflation include a significant drop in oil prices, which have decreased by approximately 20% this year, and a steady decline in housing inflation [2] - Wage growth is continuing to slow, which impacts service inflation, and the overall inflation is influenced by various factors including tariffs and consumer behavior [2] - The U.S. economy experienced a 0.3% decline in GDP in the first quarter, primarily due to increased imports and reduced government spending, but a rebound is expected in the second quarter [3] Group 3 - Employment data remains stable, with an average of 155,000 non-farm jobs added over the past three months and an unemployment rate of 4.2% [3] - The manufacturing PMI index shows resilience, particularly in the service sector, which continues to expand [3] - The introduction of "reciprocal tariffs" has led to a significant reduction in cargo traffic at U.S. ports, affecting hiring practices among U.S. companies [4]

"新债王"杰弗里·冈德拉克（Jeffrey Gundlach）警告，按照目前的趋势，到年底美国CPI可能突破4%，但 因为流动性危机及美国政府外部冲击，美联储可能最终不得不在高通胀环境下开启降息，甚至启动 YCC。 5月8日，Gundlach在接受CNBC采访时表示，美联储在45分钟发布会上只传达了一个信息：对于利率走 向，未来有太多的不确定性，目前不知道会发生什么。考虑到美联储不会基于"软数据"做评估的暗示， 这意味着当情况恶化时（被迫降息），恶化的状况要足够大。 Gundlach警告，考虑到目前的状况，到今年年底，美国通胀率大概率突破4%，在高通胀环境下，美联 储可能不该降息，因为这可能在长期带来更大的麻烦。但最终美联储可能不得不降息，甚至启动 YCC： 如果利率变得令人不安的高。美国政府、财政部或美联储会产生某种外生冲击，他们可能会 进行收益率曲线控制。这将会非常困难。 我确实认为他们会降息，但不是因为通胀数据变得很好。而是因为流动性不足问题，美联储 最终会降息。 以下为访谈内容节选： 史蒂夫・利斯曼： 斯科特，我可以把这整个45分钟的新闻发布会总结成一个问题，我说，你先倾向于哪一个方 向？这是鲍威尔的 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the third consecutive meeting without a rate change in 2023 [1] - The Fed will continue its plan to passively reduce its holdings of Treasury securities by up to $50 billion per month and maintain the $35 billion in agency bonds [1] - Following the announcement, U.S. stock indices and the dollar index initially fell but later experienced slight increases, while gold prices decreased [1] Group 2 - The Fed acknowledged an increased risk of rising unemployment and inflation in its latest meeting statement, indicating greater uncertainty regarding the U.S. economic outlook [2] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted that high unemployment and inflation risks have risen, although they have not yet appeared in the data [2] - The committee remains committed to supporting maximum employment and aims to restore inflation to a target level of 2% [2] Group 3 - Market expectations prior to the meeting indicated a high probability that the Fed would maintain its current stance, with a focus on potential rate cuts in response to tariff uncertainties [3] - Powell reiterated that the Fed does not feel pressured to cut rates but is prepared to act swiftly when appropriate, emphasizing a wait-and-see approach [4] - Analysts suggest that the Fed is likely to pause rate cuts in June, with the first potential cut expected in July, as the impact of tariffs has not yet been fully reflected in the data [5][6]

报 告 正 文 继续暂停降息，等待实际数据降温 。 本次议息会议中，美联储决定将基准利率维持在4.25%-4.5%的目标范围内，并按原有节奏继续执行缩表。在本次议息会 议声明中，美联储新增判断 "高失业率和高通胀风险已经增加" （the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen），经济前景不确定性"进一 步"（further）增加。美联储主席鲍威尔在记者会上表示，不需要急于调整利率，目前等待的成本较低。政策是适度限制的，等到6月才能做出预测。 美联储需 要真实数据反映，而不仅仅是情绪 ，尽管市场很担心，但关税冲击还没有到来。如果双重目标之间存在矛盾，要考虑与目标之间的距离和弥合差距的时间。 此外，鲍威尔重申特朗普施压不会影响美联储的工作。 我们认为， 一方面，美国就业仍趋于降温 ，4月新增非农就业人数回落、前值下修，失业率保持平稳，薪资增速略有回落，整体表现仍然稳健。不过，政府裁 员影响在未来仍将逐渐显现，同时关税等经济政策不确定仍高，或在一定程度上减缓企业招聘，关税等经济政策或对私营企业招聘决策造成负面影响，就业市 场或仍将趋于 ...

新华财经上海5月7日电（葛佳明） 北京时间5月8日（周四）凌晨02:00，美国联邦公开市场委员会 （FOMC）将公布5月议息会议决定。受通胀预期升温及消费者信心数据等"软数据"恶化因素影响，市 场普遍预期美联储将在此次会议上维持利率不变。相比利率决议，美联储主席鲍威尔对美国当前经济状 况及后续降息前景的表态成为关注焦点。 美联储官员近期反复强调，美国政府的关税政策对其实现最大就业并稳定物价这一双重使命的影响，表 示他们仍有足够空间暂缓行动，等待更多数据来决定后续利率决议。高盛预计，在5月FOMC会议上， 鲍威尔预计将重申"观望"态度，并用中性表态强调美联储"以数据为依据"的政策路径。 美联储陷两难困境 巴克莱银行首席美国经济学家马尔克·贾诺尼（Marc Giannoni）认为，考虑到政策的不确定性上升、短 期通胀预期上升以及家庭和企业信心恶化，美联储将在5月维持利率不变。目前美国经济数据呈现出"喜 忧参半"的信号，通胀趋势和预期分化，美联储将继续维持观望态度，鲍威尔也将继续释放"不急于降 息"的信号。 美联储议息会议召开前夕，知名财经记者尼克·蒂米劳斯（Nick Timiraos）发文称，美联储正面临两难 境 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in the PCE price index has eased market concerns about a resurgence of high inflation, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][4][6]. Economic Indicators - The March PCE price index increased by 2.3% year-on-year, the lowest level since last autumn, slightly above the expected 2.2% [4][6]. - The core PCE price index rose by 2.6% year-on-year, down from the previous value of 2.8%, with both PCE and core PCE showing no month-on-month change [2][4][6]. - Consumer spending in March increased by 0.7%, the largest gain since early 2023, indicating proactive consumer behavior ahead of new tariffs [7]. Market Reactions - Following the data release, U.S. stock markets rebounded, with the Dow and S&P 500 closing higher, while the Nasdaq's decline was minimized [6]. - The probability of a rate cut in June has risen to 65.5%, while the likelihood of a cut next week remains low at 5.6% [12]. Federal Reserve's Position - Federal Reserve officials are cautious but may consider rate cuts if the labor market weakens significantly due to tariff policies [12][13]. - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is critical, as it may influence the Fed's decision on rate cuts [13]. Future Projections - Analysts predict that the core PCE price index could rise to 3.5% by the end of 2025, marking a new high since September 2024 [8]. - The Fed's potential actions may be influenced by the outcome of trade agreements and the overall economic data in the coming months [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the negative impact of Trump's aggressive economic policies, particularly his tariff strategies, on both domestic support and the broader economy, leading to increased inflation and potential loss of investor confidence in U.S. debt [1][3][4]. Economic Policies and Their Effects - Trump's rapid implementation of tariffs has increased pressure on American citizens and businesses, undermining his support base among lower-income Americans [3][4]. - The approach of forcing global supply chains back to the U.S. through tariffs is deemed impractical and has resulted in significant losses for multinational corporations, contributing to stock market declines [3][4]. Public Sentiment and Approval Ratings - Recent survey data indicates that only 44% of respondents approve of Trump's performance, with 51% disapproving, reflecting a significant drop in support since his election victory [5]. - Trump's approval rating on economic issues has fallen to 43%, with a disapproval rate rising to 55%, indicating growing dissatisfaction among the electorate [5]. Future Risks and Challenges - The impending maturity of nearly $6 trillion in U.S. debt poses a significant risk, as the tariff war may deter potential buyers of U.S. bonds, threatening the government's creditworthiness [7]. - Rising inflation, coupled with the Federal Reserve's reluctance to lower interest rates, could exacerbate public discontent, making it difficult for Trump to maintain control in the upcoming midterm elections [7].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S. economy, inflation, tariffs, and the implications for the stock market and government debt. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Low Probability of Inflation Due to Tariffs**: The likelihood of a second wave of inflation in the U.S. due to tariffs is low, as imported goods account for only 16% of consumer spending, and goods only represent 25% of the core CPI, with services dominating at 75% [1][17][13]. 2. **Economic Recession Concerns**: The potential for a "deep" recession is linked to private sector leverage during prosperous times, rather than tariffs. Current government debt expansion does not indicate a private sector crisis [1][31]. 3. **Trump's Focus on Bond Yields**: Trump's actions suggest a concern for U.S. Treasury yields rather than stock market performance, especially following a significant rise in bond yields [1][35]. 4. **Historical Context of Tariffs and Inflation**: Historical analysis indicates that high tariffs in the 1930s did not lead to inflation, as consumer income did not rise correspondingly, leading to a reduction in other spending [5][7]. 5. **Impact of Globalization**: The slowing of globalization since 2018 has diminished the U.S. economy's influence on the global economy, leading to a weaker dollar and underperformance of U.S. stocks compared to other markets [2][52][56]. 6. **Service Consumption Impact**: Rising commodity prices primarily affect service consumption, as consumers may cut back on services when faced with higher prices for goods [58]. 7. **Debt Dynamics**: The current trajectory of U.S. government net interest payments is increasing at a rate faster than in the 1980s, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [39][38]. 8. **Future Corporate Debt Maturities**: A significant amount of corporate debt is set to mature starting in 2025, which could impact market dynamics [42]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Consumer Spending Dynamics**: The rigid nature of consumer spending on goods means that even if tariffs increase prices, overall consumption may not rise significantly due to income constraints [13][5]. 2. **Historical Precedents of Economic Downturns**: The analysis of past economic downturns shows that significant declines in the S&P 500 often correlate with private sector leverage and government debt dynamics [29][31]. 3. **Global Economic Interdependence**: The increasing reliance of economies on domestic fiscal measures rather than global trade could lead to greater divergence among nations [60]. 4. **Comparison with Japan's Economic History**: The historical performance of Japan's stock market during its economic challenges offers insights into potential future trends for the U.S. market [63][64].

对外，美国总统特朗普肆意挥舞关税大棒，与中国持续对峙的同时，还试图用关税这个虚空筹码逼迫其他国家答应美国的条件。对内，美国的一场"内战"打 得相当火热，特朗普和美联储主席鲍威尔都到了摊牌的时候了。 先说说特朗普为什么一直要美联储降息？美国政府今年将有9.2万亿债务到期，其中有6万多亿美元债务到期，而美债整体规模已经突破36万亿美元。特朗普 上台一直在贸易、关税政策上折腾，其实一个核心目的就是要引爆危机，迫使美联储降息。如果降息利率下降100个基点，年利息支出就能减少4000亿美 元。不仅缓解债务压力，还能缓解关税冲击，以及为其中期选举服务。 那为啥鲍威尔一直不降息呢？鲍威尔说过，过早降息可能加剧通胀失控风险。甚至可能重演1970年代滞胀危机，导致物价失控与经济长期萎靡。美联储现在 陷入加息即摧毁长端资产，降息则放任通胀甚至滞胀的双杀困局。如果降息了，这经济衰退的锅肯定要扣在美联储头上，还不如躺平不动，见死不救。而特 朗普和鲍威尔这场战斗，说实话谁赢了都没用，只有慢性自杀和暴毙的区别，因为美债与美元都出了问题。 这次特朗普如此气愤，大概率是因为鲍威尔最近的表态。鲍威尔说，美国政府的关税政策极有可能导致美国通胀出 ...