Core Insights - The metal market is experiencing a significant upward trend driven by green consumption policies and supply disruptions, with new energy metals leading the gains and traditional metals following suit [1][3] - Copper prices have reached a historical high of 103,840 yuan/ton, driven by supply concerns from Chilean copper mine strikes and strengthened long-term demand expectations due to domestic green consumption policies [1][3] - Nickel prices surged by 4,950 yuan to 144,750 yuan/ton, influenced by expectations of reduced supply from Indonesian nickel mines and strong long-term demand from new energy sectors [2][3] - Tin prices increased by 8,500 yuan to 342,250 yuan/ton, reflecting geopolitical risks in the Democratic Republic of Congo and slow supply recovery from Myanmar [2][3] Price Movements - Copper: 1 copper reported at 103,840 yuan/ton, up 3,120 yuan [1] - Aluminum: A00 aluminum at 23,910 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan, supported by low inventory and pre-holiday stocking [1] - Zinc: 0 zinc at 24,350 yuan/ton, up 380 yuan, with tight supply supporting prices despite weak seasonal demand [1] - Lead: 1 lead at 17,575 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan, showing a weak supply-demand balance [2] - Nickel: 1 nickel at 144,750 yuan/ton, up 4,950 yuan, driven by supply reduction expectations [2] - Tin: 1 tin at 342,250 yuan/ton, up 8,500 yuan, influenced by geopolitical risks [2] Market Outlook - The metal market is expected to maintain its upward momentum due to multiple factors including Fed rate cut expectations, geopolitical risks, and green transition demands [3][4] - Investment strategies should focus on copper and gold, with recommendations to avoid chasing high prices and to adopt a staggered buying approach during pullbacks [4] - Gold is seen as a defensive asset with value underpinned by geopolitical risks and central bank purchases, while copper is supported by supply disruptions and structural demand gaps [4]

打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 阿塞拜疆总统阿利耶夫周一表示，该国国家石油基金通过增持黄金已实现超过 100亿美元 的收益。去 年，阿塞拜疆做出战略决策，在地缘政治局势变化的背景下大幅增加黄金储备，基于对金价大幅上涨的 预期。阿利耶夫指出，地缘政治事件的发展态势清晰可见，他坚信黄金价格会持续攀升，而事实证明金 价确实显著上涨。 今日周二（1月6日）亚盘时段，COMEX黄金期货最新报价4470.60美元/盎司，较前一交易日上涨10.50 美元，涨幅0.24%，成功站稳4500美元/盎司关口。当日开盘价4459.80美元/盎司，最高价4472.00美元/盎 司，最低价4437.90美元/盎司。 另一方面，美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)数据显示，截至12月30日当周，COMEX黄金投机者将净多 头头寸减少 10,668手，至 126,873手，显示部分投机资金在高位选择获利了结。 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 2月黄金期货（COMEX GC.1）在2026年1月上旬延续强势震荡格局，价格围绕4450–4470美元/盎司运 行，1月5日收报4459.70美元，日内涨幅3%。技术面显示，多头下一关键目标 ...

产业链现状表现为"上游紧、中游压、下游弱"。利润向上游矿端集中，中游冶炼环节利润被严重挤压， 但短期宏观暖意带动及春节前刚需补库热度下，国内社会库存虽处低位，LME库存持续小幅去库。 今日价格走势预测 市场展望，短期铅价将受制于宏观情绪与产业供需矛盾。冶炼厂库存压力释放对价格形成压制，而低社 会库存提供一定支撑。预计价格将延续震荡偏强，后续方向需关注宏观政策动向及产业链库存的实质性 变化。 【ccmn.cn铅期货市场】隔夜伦铅收涨，开盘报2008美元/吨，高点报2030.5美元，低点报1993美元，尾 盘收于2029.5美元，涨35.5美元，涨幅1.78%；成交量6951手，持仓量178691手增加414手。 长江铅业网(pb.ccmn.cn)今日现货铅价行情预估：2026年金属市场喜迎"开门红"，以铜、锡为代表的多 数品种集体上涨，背后是宏观、需求和供给的三重逻辑共振。宏观层面，国内外市场情绪整体偏暖：国 内"十五五"稳增长与绿色消费政策持续发力，春节前虽有季节性资金压力，但CES 2026科技浪潮强化了 长期需求预期；海外方面，美股创新高、美联储降息预期发酵及美元走弱，共同为商品价格提供支撑。 供给端，智 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Nonfarm Payrolls data is crucial for measuring changes in employment numbers in the U.S. non-agricultural sectors, reflecting the health of the job market and economic vitality [1] Group 1: Employment Data - Nonfarm Payrolls data includes employment figures from manufacturing, construction, and service industries, excluding agriculture, private household employment, and non-profit organizations [1] - The data is released monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - A growth in Nonfarm Payrolls that exceeds expectations typically indicates a strengthening economy, which may reinforce expectations for interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve [1] - Conversely, disappointing data may lead to expectations of interest rate cuts, significantly impacting the U.S. dollar exchange rate and global financial markets [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term hold [1] - Silver: Long - term hold [1] - Copper: Long - term hold [1] - Zinc: Rebound [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Bullish in the short - term [1] - Nickel: Rebound and then decline [1] - Industrial silicon: Under pressure [1] - Polysilicon: High - level adjustment [1] - Lithium carbonate: Bullish in the short - term [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical events in Venezuela have far - reaching impacts, and the geopolitical premium trading continues. Gold and silver have long - term strategic allocation value. Copper is favored in the medium - and long - term due to supply issues and strategic value. Zinc is supported by positive market sentiment and supply contraction expectations but faces risks of a high - level decline. Other metals have their own supply - demand and market - related characteristics affecting their price trends [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: COMEX gold and silver prices have increased. The Shanghai gold - silver ratio and COMEX gold - silver ratio have decreased. The dollar index has slightly declined, and the gold and silver ETFs and net long positions have changed [2]. - **Reasons**: The US economic data is weak, increasing the expectation of interest rate cuts. There are statements from US officials about the interest rate outlook. There is large - scale physical delivery in the COMEX silver contract, and geopolitical events are escalating [2]. - **Strategy**: Maintain the view of an upward trend in the short - and long - term. The short - term support for silver is at 17700, and for gold is at 980. Long - term bullish logic remains unchanged, but beware of the risk of the Bloomberg Commodity Index reducing the silver weight [3]. Copper - **Market Performance**: Shanghai copper has reached a new historical high, and London copper has risen by more than 5% and broken through the 13,000 - dollar mark. Copper prices, trading volumes, and inventories have all changed [5]. - **Reasons**: The global copper concentrate supply is continuously tight. Labor strikes and project delays have exacerbated the supply shortage. The supply growth rate of refined copper in China may slow down. Although the domestic copper inventory has increased, the market can accept the seasonal inventory accumulation. The high copper price has an obvious inhibitory effect on demand, but the demand in new energy and other fields is expected to be good [6]. - **Strategy**: In the medium - and long - term, copper is still favored. In the short - term, Shanghai copper is expected to be in the range of [99,500, 105,000] yuan/ton, and London copper in the range of [12,800, 13,500] dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: Shanghai zinc has fluctuated strongly and returned to the 24,000 - yuan mark. Zinc prices, trading volumes, and inventories have changed [8]. - **Reasons**: The global zinc ore supply may shrink in 2026. The production of some domestic and foreign mines is affected, and the zinc smelting plant's operation is weak. The demand in the north is weak, but the new - energy field's demand can make up for part of the gap [9]. - **Strategy**: In the short - term, the zinc price is supported by positive sentiment and supply contraction, but there is a risk of a high - level decline. It is expected to have a wide - range shock in January. It is recommended to take profit in time for long positions and for enterprises to actively carry out selling hedging. Shanghai zinc is expected to be in the range of [23,800, 24,200] yuan/ton, and London zinc in the range of [3,150, 3,250] dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The aluminum price has continued to rise, and alumina has stabilized at a low level. Aluminum - related prices, trading volumes, and inventories have changed [11]. - **Reasons**: There is an expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut overseas. A new electrolytic aluminum project in Inner Mongolia has been put into production, and the inventory has increased. The demand of downstream processing enterprises has declined. The alumina market is in surplus [13]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to take profit and wait and see in the short - term, pay attention to the change in the aluminum ingot inventory. The main operation range of aluminum is [22,500 - 24,500] yuan/ton [14]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel and stainless - steel prices have rebounded and then declined. Nickel - related prices, trading volumes, and inventories have changed [15]. - **Reasons**: There is an expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut overseas. Indonesia has significantly reduced the nickel ore production target, and some mines are suspected of illegal occupation of forest land. The nickel inventory is at a high level. The stainless - steel market is in the off - season, and the inventory has declined [17]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to take profit and wait and see in the short - term, pay attention to the change in the stainless - steel inventory. The main operation range of nickel is [125,000 - 139,000] yuan/ton [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2605 has opened high and gone high, rising by more than 7%. Lithium - carbonate - related prices, trading volumes, and inventories have changed [19]. - **Reasons**: The weekly production has increased slightly, the total inventory has decreased slightly, but the production of downstream positive electrode factories has declined. The short - term news is positive, and the supply may not increase as expected [20]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to operate at a high level in the range of [125,000 - 135,000] yuan/ton [21].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 新能源及有色组 相关品种：铂、钯 昨日铂钯期货再次大幅上涨，铂主力合约2606合约大幅高开于612元/克，开盘后迅速回落，后持续震 荡，最终收于583.95元/克，涨幅6.48%，但成交量和持仓量双双回落，成交量较前一交易日下降超 50%，持仓量下降4%。钯主力合约2606走势接近，高开于467元/克，收于452.85元/克，涨幅8.88%。成 交量较前一交易日下降60%，持仓量下降5.8%。 昨日走势核心是避险情绪+基本面的共振：美国突袭委内瑞拉推升避险需求、美联储降息预期强化资金 配置意愿，推动贵金属价格再次回升，叠加铂钯现货供应仍呈紧张态势，资金借势入场推升价格。 此外，由于国内铂钯期货前几个交易日价格的大幅回调，以及元旦假期外盘的上涨，内外价差已基本抹 平，截至1月2日，铂内外价差为5.7元/克，钯内外价差为-13.7元/克。叠加运费成本和月差，铂钯内盘价 格已显著低于外盘，因此也推动了今日广期所铂钯价格的大幅上涨。 长期来看，潜在的地缘政治风险和贸易冲突引发的避险情绪仍将继续支撑贵金属维持高位。铂钯品种由 于交 ...

铜： （展大鹏，从业资格号：F3013795；交易咨询资格号：Z0013582） 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 隔夜内外铜价联袂走高，LME铜收盘价再创历史新高。宏观方面，美国12月ISM制造业指数从48.2小幅 下降至47.9，已连续10个月低于50。新订单已连续第四个月收缩，出口订单仍然疲弱；就业人数连续第 11个月下降，不过降幅有所放缓。库存方面，LME库存下降2775吨至142550吨；Comex库存增加3204吨 至456657吨；SHFE铜仓单增加8507吨至90282吨，BC铜维持1053吨。需求方面，因铜价持续高位，终 端订单有所放缓，市场维系刚性采购需求。资金仍是短线铜价的主要推手，但也会带来不确定性风险， 操作上维系铜"趋势多头思维"，建议在元旦至春节这段期间多观察，利用宏观或情绪扰动导致的回调机 会分批逢低布局。 镍&不锈钢： （王珩，从业资格号：F3080733；交易咨询资格号：Z0020715） 5日工业硅震荡偏弱，主力2605收于8730元/吨，日内跌幅1.24%，持仓增仓13298手至21.7万手。百川工 业硅现货参考价9603元/吨，较上一交 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses recent developments in international relations, commodity markets, and economic indicators, highlighting potential investment opportunities and market trends. Group 1: International News - A meeting between the leaders of China and South Korea resulted in the signing of 15 cooperation documents in various fields, including technology innovation and economic cooperation [1] - Venezuela's President Maduro appeared in a New York federal court facing charges from the U.S. Justice Department, declaring "not guilty" [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. ISM manufacturing index slightly decreased from 48.2 to 47.9, marking the tenth consecutive month below 50, the lowest since October 2024 [1] - U.S. Treasury yields have declined, while U.S. stock markets reached new highs, with energy and chemical sectors showing strength in night trading [1] Group 3: Commodity Markets Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices are rebounding due to easing inflation pressures in the U.S. and expectations of interest rate cuts, supported by a global easing cycle [2] - Silver's supply remains tight, with industrial demand from sectors like photovoltaics driving investment interest [2] - Platinum demand is increasing due to its use in hybrid vehicles and hydrogen energy, with prices expected to rise [2] Copper - Copper prices rose by 1.28%, reaching a historical high, driven by tight supply and stable demand in electricity and automotive sectors [3] - The overall copper supply-demand outlook is shifting towards a deficit due to supply disruptions [3] Oil - After a significant drop, oil prices recovered slightly, with Venezuela's oil production facing uncertainties [3] - UBS forecasts that the global oil market will not see significant changes in supply-demand balance over the next 12 months [3] Group 4: Financial Markets - U.S. stock indices rose, with significant gains in the media sector, while the oil and petrochemical sectors lagged [9] - The financing balance in China decreased, indicating potential shifts in market liquidity and investment dynamics [9] Group 5: Domestic News - China's child-rearing subsidies have been fully opened for applications, with over 24 million recipients reported [6] - The Chinese government is focusing on stabilizing the real estate market through various supportive measures [10]

周报 受假期影响港股流动性减弱，恒指围绕关键支撑位震荡 港股市场 2026-01-05 星期一 【市场回顾】 上周恒指小幅回升 2.01%，主要是受到能源、信息技术和原材料这三个板块 的带动，其中能源板块涨幅达到 4.2%，信息技术与原材料小幅上涨 3.8%和 3.6%，在二级板块中半导体、国防军工和石油化工表现较为突出，整体来看 港股市场风险偏好有所恢复，但年末港股流动性保持低位水平。资金方面， 上周富盈基金份额减少 1.89%，成交额少于恒生中国企业 ETF，显示市场资 金显著倾向港股中的中国资产。截止 12 月 26 日，当周港股通净流入规模 25.61 亿港元，流入资金规模减少主要是受到香港假期的影响。整体来看近期港股 市场流动性减弱，但资金面情况保持相对稳定，内地的南下多头资金继续维 持流入状态，对港股的估值起到支撑作用。 【投资建议】 市场环境：全球主要大类资产中权益资产表现较好，包括港股在内的新兴市 场的表现跑赢发达市场，而此前市场高度关注的白银、铜、白金等金属商品 的价格出现回调。当周国内公布最新 PMI 数据，显示我国外贸出口具有韧性。 国内外经济数据跟踪：国内公布 12 月份 PMI 数据 ...

来源：赛博AI实验室 本文基于以下微博话题的智搜结果生成 国际金价在2026年1月5日亚市早盘直线飙涨，现货黄金强势突破4400美元/盎司关口，最高触及4420美 元，国内金饰品牌如周生生、老庙黄金的足金饰品价格单日暴涨22元/克至1376元/克，30克金镯成本较 前一日激增660元以上。 一、价格暴涨核心数据 国际金价 现货黄金最高触及4420美元/盎司，日内涨幅达1.55%，纽约期金同步冲高至4420美元，创历史峰值。 国内金饰 周生生、老庙等品牌足金饰品挂牌价达1376-1377元/克，较前一日暴涨20-22元/克，60克黄金总价从 2025年初的3.6万元飙升至8.25万元，婚庆群体直呼"买不起三金"。 涨势特征 早盘呈现陡峭直线拉升，技术面突破4380美元关键阻力位后触发程序化买盘，国内金饰较国际金价溢价 约30%（含工费）。 二、直线拉升的核心动因 地缘风险激化避险需求 美国1月3日凌晨对委内瑞拉发起代号"绝对决心行动"的军事突袭，控制总统马杜罗夫妇并移送纽约受 审，特朗普宣称"美国需要格陵兰岛"，引发全球对单边军事干预的担忧，多国强烈谴责。 全球央行2025年购金量达830吨，中国连续12个月增 ...