Core Viewpoint - Gold remains a crucial asset for investors due to its unique anti-inflation and safe-haven characteristics, especially in the context of rising interest rate expectations and geopolitical disturbances in 2026 [1] Group 1: Compliance and Security - The first step in gold trading is to select compliant and legal trading channels, which directly impacts the safety of investor funds and transaction fairness [3] - Main compliant channels include commercial banks, securities and fund platforms, and Hong Kong Gold Exchange member units, each catering to different investor needs [3] - Gold trading platforms like Jinsong Precious Metals, as an AA member of HKGX, provide reliable options with independent fund management and transparent transaction processes [3] Group 2: Matching Trading Products - Different gold trading products vary significantly in risk levels, trading rules, and capital requirements, necessitating investors to align their choices with their risk tolerance and investment goals [5] - Physical gold, account gold, gold ETFs, and gold derivatives each serve different investor profiles, from beginners to experienced traders [5][6] - New investors are advised to start with non-leveraged products like account gold or gold ETFs before exploring more complex options [6] Group 3: Understanding Price Influences - Gold prices are influenced by multiple factors, including macro monetary policy, geopolitical tensions, and central bank gold purchases, which can drive demand and price fluctuations [7] - The expectation of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 is a significant factor supporting rising gold prices [7] - The relationship between the U.S. dollar index and gold prices is typically negative, with a stronger dollar leading to decreased demand for gold [7] Group 4: Practical Strategies and Common Pitfalls - Effective trading strategies and avoiding common mistakes are essential for successful gold trading [8] - Investors should adhere to the principle of using "idle money" for investments and maintain a reasonable allocation of 5%-15% of total assets in gold [8] - Timing the market is crucial, with different trading sessions exhibiting distinct volatility characteristics, necessitating careful planning and risk management [8][9] Group 5: Long-term Investment Philosophy - The essence of gold trading lies in achieving long-term stable value rather than seeking short-term profits, emphasizing the importance of compliance and risk management [10] - Platforms like Jinsong Precious Metals that prioritize compliance and investor service can support a stable investment journey [10] - A rational mindset and strategic approach are vital for investors to realize the value preservation and gradual asset appreciation that gold offers [10]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in precious metals, particularly gold and silver, is driven by multiple factors including the collapse of the dollar system, expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, geopolitical disturbances, competition for resource pricing power, and increasing demand from AI technologies [1][8]. Group 1: Dollar System Collapse - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, with annual interest payments amounting to $1.2 trillion, which is about one-fourth of the U.S. government's total annual revenue [2][9]. - As the credibility of the dollar system declines, central banks worldwide are aggressively purchasing gold to hedge against risks [2][9]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - The Federal Reserve recently decided to maintain the federal funds rate, but ongoing pressure from political figures may lead to future rate cuts [3][10]. - Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, while rising inflation expectations could further elevate gold prices [3][10]. Group 3: Geopolitical Disturbances - Recent U.S. actions, such as the capture of Venezuela's president and military maneuvers in the Middle East, have heightened geopolitical tensions [4][11]. - These provocations have led to a renewed interest in gold as a safe-haven asset among investors [4][11]. Group 4: Competition for Resource Pricing Power - The importance of resources has escalated, with the U.S. aiming to control oil and mineral resources in regions like Venezuela and Greenland [5][12]. - Successful consolidation of these resources could enhance the U.S.'s share of global oil reserves, further solidifying the petrodollar system and driving up prices of precious metals [5][12]. Group 5: AI Demand Boost - The expansion of AI technologies is expected to significantly increase demand for various base metals, including copper, aluminum, silver, tin, and nickel [6][13]. - Projections indicate that global data centers alone could consume over 4.3 million tons of copper in the next decade, contributing to sustained upward pressure on metal prices [6][13].

01丨 美联储换帅前瞻 2024年9月美联储启动降息周期以来，全球权益市场同步走强，贵金属及工业金属价格同步上涨，商品市场与权益市场呈现强关联性， 宽松交易的定价是核心。 当前美联储四位候选人的背后，特朗普政府的核心诉求皆涉及干预美联储经济决策。 国泰海通证券认为： 0 2丨 有色价格走强+美联储降息预期强化 近年大宗商品价格结构性走强，但受全球宏观经济及利率压制，矿企资本开支仍处震荡期，202 5年上半年全球龙头矿企资本开支同比 下滑5. 48%，距离2012年上轮周期高点仍有约30%的向上修复空间。 1） 里德与沃什处于靠前位置 ，无论哪位候选人上任，短期美联储货币政策或将延续宽松，弱美元概率较大， 但需注意潜在的缩表政 策力度与传导； | 候选人 | 政策主张 | 资产影响推断 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 美元指数 | | | | 黄金属 | | | | 全球权益市场 | | | | | 中性 利空 不确定 利好 | 利好 | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The market's expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, alongside a surge in global risk aversion, has led to a significant increase in gold prices, reaching new historical highs [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices have shown a strong upward trend, with a monthly increase exceeding $1000, driven by expectations of two potential interest rate cuts this year due to a weak U.S. labor market and moderate inflation [2][3]. - The U.S. dollar is under pressure, as indicated by President Trump's comments expressing a lack of concern over dollar depreciation, which has led to a passive reduction in dollar-denominated assets [2]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Key support levels for gold are identified at $5238 and $5200, while resistance is noted at $5300 and $5400, with a potential upward movement towards $5500 if the price breaks through these levels [1][3]. - Technical indicators such as the 5-day moving average and MACD show bullish signals, suggesting that gold may continue to rise in the short term [3].

黄金相关机构表态偏乐观，华西证券认为受美联储降息预期、美元信用不稳、美国中期选举以及地缘政 治不确定性的影响，金价有望进一步上涨，根据历史年度涨幅测算，中性情景下2026年金价可能分别上 涨7%、23%和34%。铜、铝等基本金属方面，高盛警告涨势或面临逆风，其调查显示铜加工企业订单量 下降10%至30%，电网订单也在放缓。 有色金属ETF基金（516650）紧密跟踪中证细分产业主题指数系列由细分有色、细分机械等7条指数组 成，分别从相关细分产业中选取规模较大、流动性较好的50家上市公司证券作为指数样本，前十大重仓 股包括山东黄金、中金黄金、兴业银锡等贵金属龙头。 1月29日，沪深震荡调整，贵金属概念延续强势；截至14：20，有色金属ETF基金（516650）涨1.52%， 盘中最高涨超4%。个股方面，铜陵有色、湖南黄金、西部黄金、盛和资源、云南铜业、北方铜业涨 停，白银有色涨超 9%，江西铜业涨超 8%，北方稀土涨超 7%，中金黄金涨超 6%。 消息面上，有色金属市场延续强势，景气度持续攀升，呈现由贵金属引领、部分小金属接力的态势。1 月29日，伦敦现货黄金一度逼近5600美元/盎司，再创历史新高，伦敦现货白 ...

Group 1 - COMEX gold prices have surpassed $5,600, with spot gold exceeding $5,500, marking a historical high for nine consecutive days [1] - The launch of the only gold mining ETF in Hong Kong, E Fund Gold Mining (2824.HK), is set for January 30, providing investors with a tool to invest in leading global gold mining companies [1] - The Federal Reserve Chairman indicated that inflation is primarily driven by tariffs rather than demand factors, leading to a rapid increase in spot gold prices after the announcement [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities highlights that gold prices have been reaching historical highs since 2025, influenced by factors such as de-dollarization, Federal Reserve independence, central bank gold purchases, U.S. tariffs, geopolitical conflicts, and inflation expectations [2] - Looking ahead to 2026, the allocation of gold as an alternative currency is expected to rise due to the restructuring of the global financial order and ongoing volatility in financial markets [2] - E Fund Gold Mining (2824.HK) focuses on the four major gold production regions and selects 30 leading gold mining stocks, including significant holdings in Zijin Mining and Zhaojin Mining, while also covering major overseas companies like Newmont and Barrick Gold [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Federal Reserve's recent statements are hawkish, indicating a focus on persistent inflation and removing references to employment downside risks [1] - Despite two dissenting votes in January, market expectations for future rate cuts remain largely unchanged, with predictions of two 25 basis point cuts this year [1] - The current statements may be overshadowed by the new chairperson who will take office in May [1]

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专题：美联储维持基准利率不变 鲍威尔排除加息可能性 并建议继任者"远离政治" 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 中金研究：美联储按兵不动，降息时点或推迟 来源：中金点睛 北京时间今天凌晨结束的1月FOMC上，美联储按兵不动，维持基准利率在3.5%~3.75%，符合预期。12 月FOMC通过修改声明措辞就传递了清晰的不想再降息的信号，我们在（《比12月降息更重要的事》） 中也清晰的提示了这一点，随后在失业率和通胀超预期回落的"加持"下，CME利率期货隐含1月不降息 的概率在会议前已经高达97%，年内首次降息预计在6月，会议后维持不变。 图表：会议前CME利率期货隐含1月不降息的概率已经高达97%，年内首次降息预计在6月份 | | | | | | CME FEDWATCH TOOL - CONDITIONAL MEETING PROBABILITIES | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | MEETING DATE 200-225 225-250 2 ...

点击小程序查看报告原文 北京时间今天凌晨结束的1月FOMC上，美联储按兵不动，维持基准利率在3.5%~3.75%，符合预期。12月FOMC通过修改声明措辞就传递了清晰的不想再 降息的信号，我们在（《 比12月降息更重要的事 》）中也清晰的提示了这一点，随后在失业率和通胀超预期回落的"加持"下，CME利率期货隐含1月不降 息的概率在会议前已经高达97%，年内首次降息预计在6月，会议后维持不变。 图表：会议前CME利率期货隐含1月不降息的概率已经高达97%，年内首次降息预计在6月份 | | | | | | CME FEDWATCH TOOL - CONDITIONAL MEETING PROBABILITIES | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | MEETING DATE 200-225 225-250 250-275 275-300 | | | | 300-325 | 325-350 350-375 375-400 | | | 400-425 | | 2026/1/28 | | 0.0% | 0. ...