最近美国国债市场波动较大，尤其是长端美债，如 10 年期美国国债利率水平 在前期经历了单周大幅上行之后，仍维持在较高的波动位置。相比之下，两年 期及更短期限的美债利率在前期上行后已回落至相对更低水平。衡量美国国债 波动率的 VIX 指数也显示出最近美债波动率有所抬升。 美债问题的破局及影响 20250126 摘要 • 美国国债利率快速上行受微观交易行为和宏观因素双重驱动。微观层面， 关税政策超预期和对特朗普政策的担忧引发流动性恐慌，导致国债抛售。 宏观层面，美元走弱反映市场对美元体系瓦解和美国主权债务风险的担忧， 美国主权信用违约掉期利差大幅抬升。 • 美国财政扩张对主权信用产生显著影响。疫情期间财政赤字高企，美联储 宽松政策掩盖了风险。2022 年后，美联储紧缩政策导致付息成本压力显 现，侵蚀主权信用，削弱财政效率。当前美国财政赤字率远超国际警戒线， 且持续扩张。 • 美国国债付息成本近期显著上升。低利率时期发行的国债陆续到期，再融 资导致存量国债平均付息成本中枢上移。联邦政府净利息支出占比持续上 升，超过赤字和财政收入的 20%。2025 年美国政府再次触及债务上限， 加剧了债务压力。 • 投资者对美债持 ...

Core Viewpoint - The long-term U.S. tariff policy cannot fundamentally resolve the "twin deficits" issue, which includes both trade and fiscal deficits [1][22]. Trade Deficit - The U.S. trade deficit reached a historical high of $1.3 trillion in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 10.89%, and is projected to be $1.29 trillion in 2024, up 12.57% [3]. - The trade deficit with China remains significant, with a surplus of $319 billion in 2024, only a decrease of $76.7 billion from 2017 [2]. - The U.S. has maintained a trade deficit exceeding $1.1 trillion since 2021, with a deficit of $289.1 billion in the first two months of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 58.3% [3]. Fiscal Deficit - The federal budget deficit is projected to reach $1.781 trillion in 2025, accounting for 23.9% of the total budget and 5.9% of GDP, indicating a worsening trend compared to 2019 [5][7]. - Interest payments on national debt are expected to rise from $363 billion in 2019 to $965 billion in 2025, driven by a historic federal debt exceeding $36 trillion and rising interest rates [6][7]. Tariff Policy and Revenue - The U.S. government anticipates an average annual tariff revenue of $290 billion over the next decade, which is only 15.6% of the projected $1.859 trillion fiscal deficit in 2024 [2][21]. - The proposed tariffs, including a 145% tariff on China, are expected to generate $9.8 trillion in revenue from $27.7 trillion in imports over ten years, but the actual revenue may decline due to increased prices leading to reduced demand [20][21]. Structural Issues - The U.S. trade deficit is primarily a result of structural economic imbalances and the global reserve currency status of the dollar, which encourages high consumption and low savings [16][17]. - The U.S. has a high consumption rate of 67.9% of GDP, significantly above other developed countries, which contributes to the persistent trade deficit [14][16]. Impact on Competitiveness - Tariff barriers may increase global supply chain costs, potentially weakening the competitiveness of U.S. companies [22]. - The monopolistic position of U.S. tech companies allows them to generate substantial profits overseas, which may be threatened by retaliatory tariffs from other countries [11][12]. Conclusion - The "reciprocal tariffs" policy may yield short-term negotiation benefits and localized adjustments to the trade deficit, but it lacks the structural reforms necessary to address income inequality, savings rates, and fiscal sustainability [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report In March, the growth of general fiscal revenue remained weak, while fiscal expenditure increased significantly. In the context of tariff policy shocks and limited urban investment financing, it is expected that fiscal policy will further strengthen in the future, including accelerating the issuance of government bonds within the budget and potentially expanding fiscal deficits, special bonds, and special treasury bonds [1][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Revenue Side - **General Public Budget Revenue**: In March 2025, the monthly general public budget revenue increased by 0.3% year-on-year (previous value -1.6%), with tax revenue down 2.2% year-on-year (previous value -3.9%) and non-tax revenue up 5.9% year-on-year (previous value 11.0%). Central general public budget revenue decreased by 5.3% year-on-year, while local general public budget revenue increased by 2.79% [1][11]. - **Tax Revenue**: In March, tax revenue was down 2.2% year-on-year. Among the four major taxes, domestic VAT increased by 4.9% year-on-year (1 - 2 months 1.1% year-on-year), domestic consumption tax increased by 9.6% year-on-year (1 - 2 months 0.3% year-on-year), corporate income tax increased by 16.0% year-on-year (1 - 2 months -10.4% year-on-year), and personal income tax dropped by 58.5% year-on-year. Export tax rebates increased by 8.3% year-on-year, tariffs decreased by 12.1% year-on-year, real estate-related taxes decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, and securities trading stamp duty increased by 63.2% year-on-year [2][13]. - **Government Fund Revenue**: In March, government fund revenue decreased by 11.7% year-on-year (1 - 2 months -10.7% year-on-year), mainly due to weak land transfer revenue. From January to March, government fund revenue decreased by 11% year-on-year. Although high-frequency land transaction data improved at the beginning of the year, the sustainability is expected to be limited [3][15]. Expenditure Side - **General Public Budget Expenditure and Government Fund Expenditure**: In March, general public budget expenditure increased by 5.7% year-on-year (1 - 2 months 3.4% year-on-year), and government fund expenditure increased by 27.9% year-on-year (1 - 2 months 1.2% year-on-year). From January to March, general public budget expenditure increased by 4.2% year-on-year, and government fund expenditure increased by 11.1% year-on-year [3][17]. - **Fiscal Expenditure Structure**: In March, the growth rate of traditional infrastructure expenditure was low, and the increase was mainly concentrated in social and cultural education and debt interest payments. Infrastructure fiscal expenditure increased by 0.49% year-on-year, with significant differences among sub - items. Expenditure on education, social security and employment, and debt interest payments had relatively high growth rates [4][17]. Fiscal Deficit As of March, the cumulative general fiscal deficit was 2.3 trillion yuan. Assuming a nominal GDP growth rate of 4% this year, the current cumulative general fiscal deficit rate is 1.6%, higher than in previous years and close to 2020, indicating increased fiscal efforts [4][25]. Future Outlook In the context of tariff policy shocks and limited urban investment financing, it is expected that fiscal policy will further strengthen. This includes accelerating the issuance of special treasury bonds and special bonds, and there is still room for further expansion of fiscal deficits, special bonds, and special treasury bonds. The subsequent Politburo meeting is an important observation window [5][30].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. is on the brink of recession, with potential for even worse outcomes if mishandled [1][8][16] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The current economic situation is compared to the 1930s, indicating a significant shift in monetary, political, and international systems [6][17] - The U.S. is very close to a recession, with concerns that mismanagement could lead to outcomes worse than a typical recession [8][16] Group 2: Tariff Policies - Trump's tariff policies are described as highly destructive, impacting global efficiency and acting as a symptom of deeper structural issues like fiscal deficits and international order restructuring [2][5][12] - The execution of tariff policies is crucial; whether they are implemented through stable negotiations or chaotic methods will determine their impact [7][13] Group 3: Historical Drivers - Five historical forces driving national rise and fall include: monetary-credit-debt cycles, domestic class and value conflicts, changes in international order, natural disasters and pandemics, and technological changes [4][10] - The current environment features simultaneous occurrences of these forces, making any imbalance difficult to sustain [11] Group 4: Risks and Recommendations - The greatest risk is the collapse of the monetary system, which could lead to a loss of trust in the dollar as a store of value, potentially causing financial turmoil [9][20] - A call for bipartisan commitment to control the budget deficit to within 3% of GDP is emphasized to avoid debt supply-demand imbalances [19][22]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a strong emphasis on implementing high tariffs as a strategy to achieve trade balance and reduce fiscal deficits, indicating a positive outlook for the USD and yen in the context of these tariffs [17][41]. Core Insights - The report outlines various tariff scenarios aimed at eliminating the trade deficit, with a focus on achieving a minimum 30% share of bilateral trade for the US [6][9]. - It emphasizes the need for substantial tariffs to prevent trading partners from devaluing their currencies to counteract the tariffs, which would undermine the intended effects [8][41]. - The analysis indicates that scenarios with tariffs below 25% are considered sub-optimal, as they fail to meet key objectives and leave significant trade deficits [34][38]. Summary by Sections Tariff Scenarios - Scenario 1 proposes 45% tariffs globally and 70% on China, potentially raising $1.4 trillion and eliminating trade deficits with major partners [10][12]. - Scenario 2 suggests 70% tariffs on China and 45% on the EU, raising approximately $1 trillion, leaving a trade deficit of $250 billion [18][20]. - Scenario 3 involves 70% tariffs on China and 25% on the rest of the world, raising $900 billion but leaving a trade deficit of over $400 billion [24][27]. - Scenario 4 proposes 25% tariffs across the board, raising $709 billion but still resulting in a $600 billion trade deficit [32][34]. - Scenarios with tariffs below 25% are deemed ineffective, with a 15% tariff scenario raising only $425 billion and leaving an $884 billion trade deficit [37][38]. Objectives of Tariffs - The report identifies six key objectives for the US in the trade war, including rebalancing trade, reducing the fiscal deficit, and ensuring tariffs are substantial enough to prevent currency devaluation by trading partners [6][9][41]. - It stresses that achieving a US share of at least 50% in bilateral trade is crucial, with any scenario falling below 30% being unacceptable [41].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a more proactive fiscal policy for 2025, with an increased fiscal deficit rate and a significant rise in government bond issuance to support growth and structural adjustments [7][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the 2025 fiscal policy will focus on enhancing the effectiveness of existing policies while introducing new measures to stimulate economic growth. Key areas of focus include increasing the fiscal deficit rate, optimizing expenditure structure, and enhancing local government financial capacity [7][9]. Summary by Sections 2024 Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Characteristics - In 2024, the national general public budget revenue reached 21,970.212 billion yuan, a 1.3% increase from 2023, with tax revenue declining by 3.4% and non-tax revenue increasing by 25.4% [2]. - General public budget expenditure grew by 3.6% to 28,461.225 billion yuan, resulting in a fiscal deficit of 40,600 billion yuan, consistent with the budget [3]. Government Fund Budget - The national government fund budget revenue was 62,090.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.2%, primarily due to a decline in land transfer income [4]. - Government fund budget expenditure was 101,477.82 billion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.2% [4]. State-owned Capital Management Budget - The state-owned capital management budget revenue was 6,782.88 billion yuan, exceeding the budget by 14.5%, while expenditure decreased by 6.5% to 3,128.86 billion yuan [5]. Social Insurance Fund Budget - The social insurance fund budget revenue was 118,944.7 billion yuan, a 5.2% increase, with expenditures reaching 106,061.28 billion yuan, a 7% increase [6]. 2025 Fiscal Policy Directions - The fiscal deficit rate for 2025 is set at 4.0%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year, with a total deficit amounting to 56,600 billion yuan [10]. - The issuance of government bonds will be expanded, including 13,000 billion yuan in long-term special bonds and 5,000 billion yuan for capital replenishment of state-owned banks [8][10]. - The report emphasizes the need for a more targeted and effective fiscal policy to support domestic demand, modern industry development, and social welfare improvements [7][9]. 2025 Budget Overview - The national general public budget revenue for 2025 is projected at 21,985 billion yuan, a marginal increase of 0.1%, while expenditure is expected to rise by 4.4% to 29,700.5 billion yuan [10]. - The government fund budget revenue is anticipated to be 62,499.09 billion yuan, with a significant increase in expenditure by 23.1% [11].

每周思考总第620期 《 新高如期兑现，首次左侧预警 》 本系列周度择时观点回溯表现（2023.1.1 至今），其中2024年全年累计收益53.69%。2025年至3 月16日累计收益7.79%。 中小市值板块择时观点： 短期交易中的政策窗口期尾声阶段，同步于主板开启谨慎博弈策略，自1月 翻多后首次建议重回 中等仓位 ，风格建议转向均衡； 短期动量（趋势）模型建议关注行业：无。 | 预测标的 | 仓位建议 | | --- | --- | | 主板 | 中仓位 | | 中小市值板块 | 中仓位 | | 风格判断 | 均衡 | 观点简述： 上周市场如期上行创出本轮新高，沪深300指数涨幅1.59%，上证综指周涨幅1.39%，中证500指 数周涨幅1.43%。上周我们标题观点提示"A股仍在政策窗口期"，实际A股上周五大涨重要催化因素也 是周四央行关于降准降息的最新强调表态。 基本面上，中国经济仍只是温和企稳。 国内方面，上周发布的2月货币供应数据整体喜忧参半， 社融同比回升而M1同比回落，表明国内经济仍在底部夯实状态而非强劲反转走强， 重申留意三月美 国全球关税加征后对中国外需的更显著冲击，在此阶段央行重提"年内择 ...

Fiscal Policy Overview - In 2025, China will implement a more proactive fiscal policy, increasing the fiscal deficit rate to 4.0%, up by 1 percentage point from the previous year[7] - The total fiscal deficit for 2025 is projected at 5.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan compared to 2024[7] Budgetary Performance in 2024 - The national general public budget revenue for 2024 was 21,970.21 billion yuan, achieving 98.1% of the budget, with a 1.3% increase from 2023[2] - Tax revenue decreased by 3.4% to 17,497.20 billion yuan, while non-tax revenue surged by 25.4% to 4,473.01 billion yuan[2] - General public budget expenditure reached 28,461.23 billion yuan, completing 99.7% of the budget, with a growth of 3.6%[3] Government Fund Budget Insights - Government fund budget revenue fell by 12.2% to 62,090.40 billion yuan, primarily due to a decline in land transfer income[4] - Total government fund budget expenditure was 101,477.82 billion yuan, completing 84.4% of the budget, with a slight increase of 0.2%[4] State-Owned Capital Management - State-owned capital operating budget revenue exceeded expectations at 6,782.88 billion yuan, achieving 114.5% of the budget, with a modest growth of 0.6%[5] - Expenditure in this budget decreased by 6.5% to 3,128.86 billion yuan[5] Social Insurance Fund Stability - Social insurance fund budget revenue was 118,944.70 billion yuan, surpassing the budget by 1.2%, with a growth of 5.2%[6] - Expenditure in this fund was 106,061.28 billion yuan, completing 99.3% of the budget, reflecting a 7% increase[6]

美国财政部部长贝森特（资料图，Reuters） 美国财政部部长贝森特将关税定位为国际经济体系平衡的修正，表示美国的强劲消费一直吸收陷入需 求不足的其他国家的过剩供应，而强大的军事力量则弥补了其他国家国防开支的不足…… 美国财政部部长贝森特3月6日在就任后的首次演讲中说明了今后的经济政策。将放松金融监管、关税和 经济制裁定位为三大重要支柱。强调称"用关税来反击"中国的产能过剩，表示关税上调导致物价上涨 是"一次性的价格调整"，表现出不将其视为问题的态度。 贝森特在美国纽约经济俱乐部主办的会议上发表演讲。 市场警惕对加拿大和墨西哥等国的关税提高将导致通货膨胀率上升和经济减速，股价出现暴跌。在贝森 特演讲之前，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上表示，将暂缓提高对墨西哥进口商品的关税。 在演讲后的提问中被问及对物价的影响时，贝森特解释称，转嫁到国内价格上的现象不会持续发生，表 示希望这只是暂时的影响。 贝森特还呼吁放宽以金融为中心的监管。对拜登前政府批评称，"过去几年的过度政治监管忽视了重大 风险，阻碍了经济增长，扼杀了技术创新"。 指出雷曼危机后推进的金融机构自有资本监管"应反映当前的经济需求"。提出谨慎看法认为，为了防止 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" for the next 12 months, indicating an expected increase in the index by over 10% compared to the CSI 300 index [35]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic environment shows signs of resilience in the US service sector, but concerns about "stagflation" are resurfacing due to significant declines in consumer spending and persistent inflation pressures [1]. - In Europe, while service inflation has eased, overall CPI growth has exceeded expectations, leading to a recovery in risk appetite within the Eurozone [1]. - Domestic manufacturing and service PMI have shown seasonal recovery post-holiday, but sustainability of this recovery remains a concern [3]. - The government has indicated a proactive stance on economic policies, emphasizing the importance of consumption, technological innovation, and stability in real estate and stock markets [3]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Analysis - The US economy is facing challenges with consumer spending showing the largest decline in four years, while inflation remains difficult to control [1]. - European economic indicators are stabilizing, supported by expectations of loose fiscal policies in Germany [1]. Domestic Economic Environment - Domestic PMI for manufacturing and services has rebounded, but future sustainability needs monitoring [3]. - The government has set clear economic growth and inflation targets, with a focus on flexible policies to support consumption and innovation [3]. High-Frequency Data - Real estate transactions are recovering, while prices for various commodities show mixed trends, with steel prices declining and non-ferrous metals generally rising [3].