1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The slow rise of the index since mid - December is a pre - emptive pricing driven by funds' forward - looking layout for 2026 investments, with high expectations for the cross - year market. In the short term, the market may be affected by overseas factors such as US geopolitical frictions and re - inflation expectations. If US inflation and the job market remain resilient, the overly optimistic Fed rate - cut expectations may be revised, affecting the domestic technology - growth style. Otherwise, the stock market may continue to rise in a volatile manner [3][11]. - In the medium term, global liquidity is expected to be in a state of resonant easing. The US may use re - inflation to resolve its huge debt, and its monetary policy is likely to be loose. In China, the monetary policy focuses on cross - cycle adjustment, and after the Spring Festival, fiscal policy is expected to be implemented in advance, with pro - cyclical styles having potential for a supplementary rise [12]. - The bond market last week was sluggish, with yields on various - term government bonds rising. There are both positive and negative factors in the future. The bond market is recommended to be treated with a neutral and volatile mindset [4][14]. - On December 31, 2025, the CSRC officially released the "Regulations on the Management of Sales Fees of Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds", marking the official completion of the three - stage fee reform in the public fund industry [4][16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Market Observation 3.1.1 Equity Market Review and Observation - Last week (2025.12.29 - 2025.12.31), the market was volatile, with major indices showing mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.13%, the CSI 300 fell 0.59%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.25%. Market highlights were in commercial space, robotics, and AI application sectors, and most industries declined. The average daily trading volume was 2128.3 billion yuan, an increase of 163.2 billion yuan from the previous week [3][11]. - The US's raid on Venezuela may cause short - term increases in gold and crude oil prices and strengthen the US dollar. In the long term, it may form a long - term negative impact on international oil prices. Chinese asphalt and fuel oil products relying on Venezuelan heavy crude oil face risks of unstable raw material sources [13]. 3.1.2 Pan - Fixed - Income Market Review and Observation - Last week (2025.12.29 - 2026.01.04), the bond market was sluggish, with yields on 1 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year government bonds rising. There are both positive and negative factors in the future, and the bond market is recommended to be treated with a neutral and volatile mindset [4][14]. - Last week (2025.12.29 - 2026.01.02), the US Treasury yield curve steepened, with different trends for various - term yields. The Fed's December minutes showed a likely 2 - time rate cut in 2026, but short - term employment data boosted the yield curve [14][15]. - Last week (2025.12.29 - 2025.12.31), the CSI REITs Total Return Index fell 0.49%. In the primary market, 20 REITs were successfully issued in 2025, and 3 new REITs made progress last week [15]. 3.1.3 Public Fund Market Dynamics - On December 31, 2025, the CSRC officially released the "Regulations on the Management of Sales Fees of Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds", marking the completion of the three - stage fee reform in the public fund industry. The formal version has made adjustments to the redemption fees of index funds and bond funds, which is beneficial in the short and long term. It also regulates other fees in the fund sales process to build a transparent, fair, and sustainable industry ecosystem [4][16][19]. 3.2 Fund Index Performance Tracking 3.2.1 Equity Strategy Theme - Based Index - **Active Stock Fund Preferred Index**: Each period selects 15 funds with equal - weight allocation. The core positions select active equity funds based on performance competitiveness and style stability, and the style distribution is balanced according to the CSI Equity - Oriented Fund Index. The performance benchmark is the CSI Equity - Oriented Fund Index (930950.CSI) [22][23]. 3.2.2 Investment Style - Based Index - **Value Stock Fund Preferred Index**: The value style includes deep - value and quality - value styles. It selects 10 funds of deep - value, quality - value, and balanced - value styles based on multi - period style classification. The performance benchmark is the CSI 800 Value Index (H30356.CSI) [26][27]. - **Balanced Stock Fund Preferred Index**: Balanced - style fund managers balance stock valuation and growth. It selects 10 relatively balanced and value - growth style funds based on multi - period style classification. The performance benchmark is the CSI 800 (000906.SH) [28]. - **Growth Stock Fund Preferred Index**: The growth style aims to capture the performance and valuation double - click opportunities of high - growth companies. It selects 10 funds of active - growth, quality - growth, and balanced - growth styles based on multi - period style classification. The performance benchmark is the 800 Growth (H30355.CSI) [31]. 3.2.3 Industry Theme - Based Index - **Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Preferred Index**: Selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and the representative index (CITIC Pharmaceutical) components. It constructs an evaluation system and selects 15 funds. The performance benchmark is the pharmaceutical theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [35][36]. - **Consumption Stock Fund Preferred Index**: Selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and representative indices (CITIC Automobile, Home Appliances, etc.). It constructs an evaluation system and selects 10 funds. The performance benchmark is the consumption theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [36][37]. - **Technology Stock Fund Preferred Index**: Selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and representative indices (CITIC Electronics, etc.). It constructs an evaluation system and selects 10 funds. The performance benchmark is the technology theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [40]. - **High - end Manufacturing Stock Fund Preferred Index**: Selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and representative indices (CITIC Construction, etc.). It constructs an evaluation system and selects 10 funds. The performance benchmark is the high - end manufacturing theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [45][46]. - **Cyclical Stock Fund Preferred Index**: Selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and representative indices (CITIC Petroleum and Petrochemical, etc.). It constructs an evaluation system and selects 5 funds. The performance benchmark is the cyclical theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [48][49]. 3.2.4 Money - Market Enhancement Index - **Money - Market Enhancement Strategy Index**: Aims at liquidity management, pursues a curve that exceeds money - market funds and is smooth and upward. It mainly allocates money - market funds and passive index - type bond funds (inter - bank certificate of deposit index funds). The performance benchmark is the CSI Money - Market Fund Index (H11025.CSI) [52]. 3.2.5 Pure Bond Index - **Short - Term Bond Fund Preferred Index**: Aims at liquidity management, pursues a smooth and upward curve while controlling drawdowns. It selects 5 funds with stable long - term returns and strict drawdown control. The performance benchmark is 50% * Short - Term Pure Bond Fund Index + 50% * Ordinary Money - Market Fund Index [55]. - **Medium - and Long - Term Bond Fund Preferred Index**: Invests in medium - and long - term pure bond funds, pursues stable returns while controlling drawdowns, and selects 5 funds. It adjusts the duration and the ratio of credit bond funds and interest - rate bond funds according to market conditions [57]. 3.2.6 Fixed - Income Plus Index - **Low - Volatility Fixed - Income Plus Preferred Index**: The equity center is positioned at 10%, selects 10 funds each period, and focuses on fixed - income plus products with an equity center within 15% in the past three years and recently. The performance benchmark is 10% CSI 800 Index + 90% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index (CBA00303.CS) [59]. - **Medium - Volatility Fixed - Income Plus Preferred Index**: The equity center is positioned at 20%, selects 5 funds each period, and selects fixed - income plus products with an equity center between 15% - 25% in the past three years and recently. The performance benchmark is 20% CSI 800 Index + 80% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index (CBA00303.CS) [63]. - **High - Volatility Fixed - Income Plus Preferred Index**: The equity center is positioned at 30%, selects 5 funds each period, and selects fixed - income plus products with an equity center between 25% - 35% in the past three years and recently. The performance benchmark is 30% CSI 800 Index + 70% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index (CBA00303.CS) [66]. 3.2.7 Other Pan - Fixed - Income Index - **Convertible Bond Fund Preferred Index**: Selects bond - type funds with an average convertible bond investment ratio of more than 60% in the latest period and more than 80% in the past four quarters as the sample space. It constructs an evaluation system and selects 5 funds [68]. - **QDII Bond Fund Preferred Index**: The underlying assets are overseas bonds. It selects 6 funds with stable returns and good risk control based on credit and duration [72]. - **REITs Fund Preferred Index**: The underlying assets are infrastructure projects. It selects 10 funds with stable operation, reasonable valuation, and certain elasticity based on the type of underlying assets [74].

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2026年01月05日16时51分 报告导读： 今日贵金属高位分化，沪金主力收涨1.40%，沪银主力收涨1.16%，铂金主力收涨6.48%，钯金主力收涨涨8.88%。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险上升；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期支撑仍存。②避险属性方面，美国抓捕马 杜罗震惊世界，地缘异动风险上升。③货币属性方面，尽管美国第三季度经济增长超过预期，但消费者信心降至4月以来的最低水 平。美国11月核心CPI同比上涨2.6%，创下2021年初以来最慢增速，低于市场预期的3%。美国11月就业反弹超预期，失业率升至 四年高位。美联储12月在重重分歧中下调利率，暗示将暂停行动明年或仅降息一次。鲍威尔指出，美联储的利率政策已处于良好 位置，可以应对未来经济走势，但他拒绝就近期是否会再次降息提供指引。目前市场预期美联储26年1月不降息概率维持在80%附 近，下次降息或到4月。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏强；④商品属性方面，白银受到供应偏紧支撑。铂金氢能产业铂基催化剂需 求预期强劲。钯金短期需求仍有韧性，长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商品指数 ...

Group 1 - The global stock market has seen a significant rise, with the Hang Seng Index increasing nearly 3% in the first week of the new year, particularly driven by the innovative drug sector, which is expected to continue its rebound [1][2] - The innovative drug sector was previously affected by liquidity issues and year-end accounting effects, but the current market conditions present an opportunity for investors as the sector has returned to levels seen in June 2025 [1][2] - The recent comments from Trump regarding Venezuelan oil extraction, which could increase oil supply by approximately 30%, are expected to exert downward pressure on inflation and raise the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, benefiting the innovative drug sector [1][2] Group 2 - The innovative drug sector is anticipated to remain a key investment theme in 2025, with the Hang Seng Innovative Drug Index having outperformed the Hang Seng Technology Index significantly, showing a 64% increase compared to the latter's 23% [4] - The sector has experienced a remarkable rebound, with a peak increase of over 116%, although it has since retraced to levels seen in June 2025 due to overall market weakness [4][20] - The trend of overseas licensing deals for Chinese innovative drug companies has become a norm, with several high-value transactions occurring, such as a $60 billion deal between 3SBio and Pfizer, indicating strong international interest [6][8][11] Group 3 - The innovative drug sector is benefiting from supportive policies that have shifted focus towards quality, reducing previous concerns about profitability in the domestic market [14][19] - The introduction of measures to stabilize pricing and ensure quality in the procurement process is expected to positively impact innovative drug companies [16][19] - The overall valuation of the innovative drug sector has adjusted downwards, making it more attractive for investment, especially with the anticipated increase in business development (BD) transactions and favorable monetary policy [20][22] Group 4 - The innovative drug sector's performance is expected to be bolstered by a series of upcoming medical conferences, which are typically high points for BD transactions, providing opportunities for early investment [13] - The sector's growth is supported by a multi-faceted payment system that includes insurance and government funding, creating a conducive environment for rapid expansion [19] - Investment in innovative drugs can be effectively achieved through ETFs, such as the E Fund Innovative Drug ETF (159316), which focuses on leading companies in the sector [22][24]

基本消息面： 2026年的首个交易周，全球市场便被一场突如其来的地缘政治风暴惊醒。这场波动的直接导火索，是周 末期间美国对委内瑞拉发动的闪电军事行动——总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗及其夫妇在首都住所被捕，并已 被迅速移送至纽约候审。这一事件如同投入平静湖面的巨石，瞬间激起了金融市场对避险资产的狂热需 求。与此同时，世界并未因此平静——俄罗斯国防部通报遭遇大规模无人机袭击，显示俄乌冲突远未平 息；中东局势依然紧张。多重地缘风险事件的叠加，共同构筑了黄金价格坚固的"防波堤"。 1月5日，周一，亚市早盘，现货黄金高开高走，一度强势上涨约2%，目前最高触及每盎司4426美元。 然而，金价的攀升之路并非坦途，同期美元指数攀升至近两周高位的强势表现，如同悬在多头上方的利 剑，令市场情绪复杂而微妙。 美联储政策预期持续发酵，市场普遍预测2026年将有2-3次累计50-75个基点的降息，但1月维持利率的 概率高达85.1%，3月降息预期出现分化。同时现任主席鲍威尔的任期将于5月结束，特朗普总统已表示 将在本月公布提名人选。市场普遍预期，特朗普提名的候选人可能更倾向于支持更快、更大幅度的降 息，以呼应其长期对高利率的批评。 此外，本周 ...

【要闻回顾】 摘要1月2日，COMEX黄金库存录得1132.26吨，较上一交易日增加4.59吨；COMEX黄金周五（1月2 日）收4340.60美元/盎司，上涨0.20%，comex黄金价格日内最高上探至4414.80美元/盎司，最低触及 4319.70美元/盎司。 1月2日，COMEX黄金库存录得1132.26吨，较上一交易日增加4.59吨；COMEX黄金周五（1月2日）收 4340.60美元/盎司，上涨0.20%，comex黄金价格日内最高上探至4414.80美元/盎司，最低触及4319.70美 元/盎司。 最新comex黄金库存数据： 日期 COMEX黄金库存量(吨) 增持（吨） 2026-01-02 1132.26 4.59 2025-12-31 1127.67 0.00 避险情绪重燃是推高贵金属价格的主要因素。分析师指出："委内瑞拉局势促使投资者寻求防范地缘政 治风险，黄金和白银因此受益。"这是美国自1989年入侵巴拿马以来在拉美进行的直接军事干预，委内 瑞拉副总统已出任临时领导人，并表示马杜罗仍是合法总统。 除了地缘政治风险外，市场对美联储降息的预期也为金价提供了支撑。投资者目前仍预计美联储今年至 ...

Group 1: US Manufacturing Sector - The final value of the US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for December is 51.8, consistent with previous estimates and market expectations, but down from 52.2 in November, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing expansion to the lowest level in five months [1][6] - Manufacturing production continues to grow, but the growth rate has significantly slowed compared to the previous month; new orders have contracted for the first time in a year, reflecting weakening demand [1][6] - Rising tariffs are contributing to increased operational costs for manufacturing companies, creating greater business pressure, although input and output price increases have eased to the lowest levels in 11 months, indicating some relief in cost transmission pressures [1][6] Group 2: Eurozone Manufacturing Sector - The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI fell from 49.6 in November to 48.8 in December, marking the lowest reading in nine months and remaining below the neutral 50 mark for the second consecutive month, indicating widespread decline in manufacturing activity across the 20 Eurozone countries [2][7] - Germany, as the largest economy in the Eurozone, showed the weakest performance among the eight monitored countries, with its PMI reaching a ten-month low; Italy and Spain also fell back into contraction territory [2][7] - Economic sentiment in the Eurozone is cautious, with businesses showing neither the capacity nor willingness to accumulate momentum for the coming year, which is viewed as detrimental to the economy [8] Group 3: Currency Market Reactions - The US Dollar Index experienced slight gains, trading around 98.60, supported by the expectation that the Federal Reserve may only cut rates once in 2026 and by US economic data meeting market expectations [3][9] - The Euro has weakened against the dollar, trading around 1.1700, influenced by the strong dollar and weak Eurozone manufacturing data, although expectations that the European Central Bank's rate cuts are nearing an end have limited the decline [4][10] - The British Pound also saw a slight decline, trading around 1.3450, pressured by technical selling near the 1.3500 level and weak economic data from the UK [5][11]

Equity Market Review and Outlook - The market maintained volatility with major indices showing mixed results during the three trading days from December 29 to December 31, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.13%, while the CSI 300 and ChiNext fell by 0.59% and 1.25% respectively [3] - The highlights were in thematic stocks related to commercial aerospace, robotics, and AI applications, with significant gains in sectors like oil and petrochemicals, defense, and media, while public utilities, food and beverage, and electrical equipment saw declines [3] - The average daily trading volume increased to 21,283 billion yuan, up by 1,632 billion yuan from the previous week, indicating heightened market activity [3] - The gradual rise in indices since mid-December is attributed to high expectations for the year-end market, driven by forward-looking investments for 2026 [3] - Concerns over geopolitical tensions in the U.S. and inflation expectations are influencing market sentiment, with a focus on upcoming non-farm employment and inflation data [3] Fixed Income Market Review and Outlook - The bond market showed weak performance, with the 1-year government bond yield rising by 4.50 basis points to 1.33%, the 10-year yield up by 0.51 basis points to 1.84%, and the 30-year yield increasing by 2.96 basis points to 2.25% [6] - Factors influencing the bond market include reduced selling pressure from profit-taking at year-end and the implementation of new regulations on fund sales fees, which have eased concerns among institutional investors [6][7] - However, the central bank's stance indicates a low probability of interest rate cuts in the short term, and there are ongoing concerns regarding long-term bond supply [7] Public Fund Market Dynamics - The China Securities Regulatory Commission officially released the "Regulations on the Management of Sales Fees for Publicly Raised Securities Investment Funds" on December 31, 2025, marking the completion of a three-phase fee reform in the public fund industry [8] - The new regulations provide detailed guidelines on fund subscription and redemption fees, with specific provisions for index and bond funds, allowing for more flexible fee structures [8][9] - This adjustment aims to prevent large-scale redemptions that could lead to significant volatility in the bond market and to mitigate liquidity risks during bear market phases [9]

Group 1 - The current silver price is $75.73 per ounce, with a trading range today between $72.88 and $76.30 [1][2] - The market is anticipating the release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data, which could impact the dollar and commodity prices [3] - Recent geopolitical tensions and comments from Trump regarding drug trafficking may influence market sentiment and the Federal Reserve's actions [2] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that silver prices are in an upward channel, suggesting a bullish outlook [4] - The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 66.57, indicating bullish momentum without entering overbought territory [4] - Short-term moving averages remain bullish, with resistance near $83.10 and support at $72.38 [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The US's tough actions against Venezuela have briefly increased market risk aversion, leading to a strong performance in the precious metals market today, with significant rebounds in the platinum and palladium futures contracts on both domestic and international exchanges [2]. - Fundamentally, platinum may continue to see price support in the medium to long - term due to expectations of Fed easing, a continued structural supply - demand deficit, and expanding long - term demand expectations in the hydrogen economy. Palladium's demand outlook is weakening due to over - concentration in the automotive catalyst sector and the continuous spread of new energy vehicles. The palladium market is shifting from supply shortage to surplus, but the bullish sentiment driven by interest rate cut expectations may provide some price support, and its low current price may make it a cost - effective option again [2]. - In the short term, the Venezuela - US situation increases the risk premium and attracts risk - averse funds to the precious metals market, potentially supporting prices. In the long term, the divergence in supply - demand patterns may continue to drive the "platinum strong, palladium weak" market trend. The upper resistance for London platinum is at $2400 per ounce, and the lower support is at $1900 per ounce; for London palladium, the upper resistance is at $1800 per ounce, and the lower support is at $1500 per ounce [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - Palladium's main contract closing price was 583.95 yuan/gram, up 35.55 yuan; platinum's main contract closing price was 452.85 yuan/gram, up 36.95 yuan. The main contract holding volume of platinum was 10387.00 hands, down 277.00 hands; the main contract holding volume of palladium was 3179.00 hands, up 90.00 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average spot price of Yangtze River palladium was 573.65 yuan, up 62.15 yuan; the spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 413.00 yuan, up 5.00 yuan. The basis of the palladium main contract was - 10.30 yuan/gram, up 26.60 yuan; the basis of the platinum main contract was - 39.85 yuan/gram, down 31.95 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - In 2025, the total supply of palladium was expected to be 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; the total supply of platinum was expected to be 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons. The total demand for platinum was expected to be 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; the total demand for palladium was expected to be 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons. The non - commercial long positions of palladium in CFTC were 9966.00 contracts, down 243.00 contracts; the non - commercial long positions of platinum in CFTC were 3003.00 contracts, down 342.00 contracts [2]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index was 98.03, up 0.12; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.91%, unchanged. The VIX volatility index was 13.60, up 0.13 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Venezuela's Constitutional Court ruled that the executive vice - president should act as "acting president". US former vice - president Harris opposed the US using military means to overthrow Venezuela's President Maduro. Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson thought there might be a moderate further interest rate cut later in 2026, depending on the economic outlook. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in January was 17.2%, and the probability of keeping the rate unchanged was 82.8%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut was 44.1%, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged was 48.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut was 7.0% [2]. 3.6 Key Events to Watch - On 01 - 06 at 23:00, the US ISM non - manufacturing PMI; on 01 - 07 at 21:15, the US ADP employment report; on 01 - 09 at 21:30, the US December non - farm payrolls report [2]

今日国内金店黄金价格整体上涨，品牌金价较昨日（1月4日）普遍上调。其中，周大福、潮宏基、周大生黄金价格均为 1378元/克，并列市场最高价；上海中国黄金价格保持1285元/克不变，仍为市场最低价。两者价差为93元/克。 上周五的金价波动主要还是紧张的地缘政治局势推动市场避险情绪升温；美联储降息预期的强化，美元走弱支撑金价。而 部分投资者选择在金价冲高后提前获利了结，以及CME期所上调黄金交易保证金的行为，又限制了金价的涨幅。 以下是各大品牌金店详细报价： 今日金价暴涨主要是美国在上周六对委内瑞拉进行的军事行动，以及抓捕委内瑞拉总统马杜罗的行为直接引爆市场避险需 求。而美国总统特朗普还在后续采访中继续威胁委内瑞拉代总统，如不配合，将付出更严重代价，还称美国"绝对需要格陵 兰岛"。 | | | 今日金店黄金价格一览(2026年1月5日) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金店报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | 变动幅度 | 涨跌 | | 老庙黄金价格 | 1377 | 元/克 | 21 | 涨 | | 六福黄金价格 | 1376 | 元/克 | 21 | 涨 | | 周 ...