祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 | 铅锌日评20250902：区间整理 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/9/2 指标 单位 | | | | | 变动 近期趋势 | 今值 | | | | | | 元/吨 16,725.00 SMM1#铅锭平均价格 | | | | | 0.00% | | | | | | | 沪铅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 16,855.00 | | | | | -0.15% | | | | | | | 沪铅基差 元/吨 -130.00 | | | | | 25.00 | | | | | | | 元/吨 升贴水-上海 -20.00 升贴水-LME 0-3 美元/吨 -42.47 | | | | | - -1.40 | | | | | | | 升贴水-LME 3-15 美元/吨 -69.50 | | | | | -0.20 | | | | | | | 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 元/ ...

Fundamental Analysis - The price of spot gold reached a new historical high of $3508.74 per ounce, driven by increasing global economic uncertainty and strong expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut this month [1][3] - On September 1, spot gold surged to over a four-month high, peaking at $3489.78 per ounce, closing at $3476.08 per ounce, reflecting investor sentiment towards a potential 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1][3] - The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 90% probability of a rate cut this month, with expectations of cumulative cuts of about 100 basis points by fall 2026, influenced by dovish comments from San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly [1][3] Dollar Influence - The continuous decline of the US dollar has been a key catalyst for the rise in gold prices, with the dollar index hitting a five-week low of 97.52 and closing at 97.66, down approximately 0.17% [3] - The dollar has accumulated a decline of 2.2% as a result of a court ruling deeming many of Trump's tariff measures illegal, which has weakened the dollar's strong position [3] Global Political Risks - Political uncertainty in Europe, particularly with rising support for populist and far-right parties in the UK, France, and Germany, has further supported gold and silver prices [3][4] - The potential for political instability due to the inability to address immigration and cost of living issues has raised market concerns, contributing to a flight to safe-haven assets like gold [4] Market Sentiment - The strong performance of gold is attributed to a combination of Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, a weakening dollar, trade policy changes, and global political risks, enhancing the appeal of precious metals as safe-haven assets [4] - Traders are expected to focus on upcoming US employment data this week, which may influence market sentiment [4] Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates that gold prices are approaching previous historical highs, suggesting potential for further upward movement if the $3500 level is breached [6] - Short-term trading strategies suggest attempting long positions in the range of $3485-$3490, with targets set around $3520-$3535 [7]

9月2日，A股指数走弱，截至10:48，共4600只个股下跌。 沪深两市成交额连续第70个交易日突破1万亿，较昨日此时有所缩量。 8月以来，两融余额连续多个交易日增长，期间9只个股获融资净买入超30亿元，寒武纪（688256.SH）、新易盛（300502.SZ）、胜宏科技 （300476.SZ）位居前三，分别获融资净买入68.95亿元、59.57亿元、59.1亿元，寒武纪、新易盛、天孚通信（300394.SZ）8月以来股价翻倍。 牛市来了还没上车？上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 数字货币、消费电子、算力硬件等板块跌幅居前。 | 稳定币 | 小基站 | eSIM-F | 智能IC | 数字货币 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | -5.76% | -5.40% | -5.21% | -4.91% | -4.87% | | 网络切片 | | 高速铜连接航天科工系第三方支付电子身份证 | | | | -4.64% | -4.49% | | -4.25% -4.24% | -4.21% | | 汽系 -4.60% | 卫星 ...

（原标题：现货黄金突破3500美元 机构：年底或至3700美元） 展望后市，多家国际机构表示看好黄金新一轮上涨空间。高盛预计到2025年年底，金价将升至每盎司 3700美元；到2026年中期，金价将进一步攀升至每盎司4000美元。摩根大通也预测2026年黄金价格将突 破4000美元/盎司，而且这一目标可能"比预期来得更快"。 （声明：文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。） 9月2日，现货黄金盘中突破3500美元/盎司，创下历史新高。年初至今，金价累计涨幅超33%。COMEX 黄金主力合约同步上涨，盘中最高涨近1%，最高报价3578.4美元/盎司。 截至12:00，报3563.0美元/盎司。A股市场上，黄金珠宝板块持续活跃，莱绅通灵、西部黄金等个股涨 停。现货黄金连续第六个交易日上涨，主要受美联储降息预期升温、节点渐进影响。 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/9/2 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | | | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2510 | AG2510 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 银15点价 - | | | | | | | | | | | 格跟踪 (本表数 | 2025/9/1 | 3478. 93 | 40. 52 | 3546. 90 | 41. 37 | 800. 56 | 9775.00 | 796. 65 | 9747.00 | | 据来 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITCE KIT | 品种 | 收盘价 | 我即一日变动 | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较削一 日本 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (%) | | | 动(%) | | 沪深300 | 4524 | 0.60 | IF当月 | 4511 | 0.1 | | 上证50 | 2981 | 0.16 | IH当月 | 2980 | 0.0 | | 中证500 | 7110 | 0.94 | IC当月 | 7015 | 0.3 | | 中证1000 | 7501 | 0.84 | IM当月 | 7381 | 0.2 | | IF成交量 | 144297 | -27.7 | IF持仓量 | 276618 | -5.7 | | IH成交量 | 54597 | -33.0 | IH持仓量 | તે જેવે રેણવે તાલુકામાં આવેલું એ તાલુકામાં આવેલું એ તાલુકામાં આવેલું એ તાલુકામાં આવેલું એ તાલુકામાં આવેલું એ | -10.2 ...

Group 1 - The three major indices experienced a collective pullback, with gold prices fluctuating after reaching $3,578, while the performance of gold-related ETFs showed divergence [1] - The non-ferrous metal ETF (516650) fell by 2.03%, with strong performances from stocks like Silver Holdings (601212) and Western Gold (601069), while companies like Huayou Cobalt (603799) and Tin Industry Co. (000960) led the decline [1] - Over the past five trading days, there has been a continuous inflow of 109 million, with a net inflow of 54 million yesterday, while the gold stock ETF (159562) fell by 1.08% [1] Group 2 - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has significantly increased, with the probability of maintaining rates in September dropping to 10.3% and the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut rising to 89.7% [1] - According to Debon Securities, the combination of the Fed's rate cut expectations and the gradual decline of the dollar's global status is accelerating the long-term logic, leading to sustained optimism for gold, which is expected to push silver prices higher [1] Group 3 - The non-ferrous metal ETF (516650) tracks the CSI segmented non-ferrous metal industry theme index, focusing on industrial metals like gold, copper, and aluminum, as well as rare earths and tungsten, with respective weights of 29.6% for copper, 14.4% for aluminum, 14.0% for rare earths, 13.5% for gold, and 7.1% for lithium [2]

9月2日午后，港股三大指数集体下跌，恒生科技指数跌超1.5%。盘面上，科网股多数下跌，内银股走 强，半导体板块回调，苹果概念股跌幅居前。主流ETF方面，恒生科技指数ETF（513180）跟随指数跌 超1%，持仓股中，中芯国际、华虹半导体、同程旅行、ASMPT、商汤、舜宇光学科技等领跌，近期热 度较高的阿里巴巴午后跌超1.5%。 阿里巴巴财报超预期，恒生科技有望回归AI叙事。截至9月1日，恒生科技指数ETF（513180）标的指数 的最新估值（PETTM）为22.05倍，处于指数2020年7月27日发布以来约23.92%的估值分位点，即当前 估值低于指数发布以来76%以上的时间。恒生科技当前仍处于历史相对低估区间，在美联储降息预期升 温、AI巨头阿里巴巴财报超预期的催化下，高弹性、高成长等特性使其具备更大的向上动能。没有港 股通账户的投资者或可通过恒生科技指数ETF（513180）一键布局中国AI核心资产。 每日经济新闻 交银国际指出，海内外流动性宽松周期下，港股有望延续向好势头。当前，我国流动性延续宽松，A股 市场情绪活跃，亦有望提振港股交易氛围。南向资金对港股科技等高景气度板块的配置需求保持旺盛， 资金净流 ...

10:42 # 黄金ETF总持合变化 更新时间:2025-08-2 980 975 970 965 960 955 950 945 940 2025-07-30 2025-06-18 2025-07-09 2025-08-15 EBC黄金ETF持仓报告解读 黄金ETF持仓报告 公布机构：美国SPDR Gold Trust 当前总持仓 977.68 吨黄金 基本面消息，9月1日亚市盘中，现货黄金大幅拉升，再创4月22日以来的高位，与此同时，COMEX黄金期货合约价格也显著上扬，最高逼近3560美元/盎 司。值得注意的是，在金价大涨之际，现货白银也显著破位，最高突破40美元/盎司，创2011年以来最高水平，年内涨幅超过40%。 有分析人士指出，黄金、白银的最新涨势可能归因于避险需求的复苏，周一亚太市场多数下跌，尤其是日本日经225指数在上周五华尔街科技股大跌后遭受 重创。另外，贸易方面重新出现的不确定性加剧了厌恶风险的市场状况。在市场清淡（周一美国市场因假期休市）的情况下，金价正迈向创纪录的高点3500 美元。 针对本轮贵金属的拉升，分析认为，投资者对美联储9月降息的预期不断升温，提供支撑。特朗普对美联储的反复攻 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have surged past $3500 per ounce, reaching a historical high, driven by strong expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, a weakening dollar, trade policy changes, and global political risks [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent rally in gold prices reflects heightened investor sentiment regarding potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, particularly in light of the recent announcement of a possible dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by Trump, raising concerns about the independence of the Fed [1][2]. - Gold has recorded five consecutive days of gains, with the market exhibiting extreme emotional behavior, particularly during the Asian trading session [2]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Technically, gold is currently overbought, and the recent price movements are not supported by conventional indicators, suggesting a need for caution regarding potential short-term corrections [2]. - The recommendation for trading is to wait for price corrections to support levels before entering long positions, rather than chasing high prices, to optimize risk-reward ratios [2][3]. Group 3: Trading Recommendations - The suggested trading strategy includes buying gold at the range of $3487-$3488 with a stop loss at $3479 and a target of $3500-$3520, while advising to consider short positions if prices drop below $3480 [3].