Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a significant rally on June 25, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year and the ChiNext Index rising nearly 3%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 188.2 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. Over 3,900 stocks rose in the market, indicating a broad-based rally [1] - Financial stocks were a major driver of this rally, with several stocks, including Guosheng Financial Holdings, hitting the daily limit. The four major banks (Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and China Construction Bank) also reached historical highs. This surge is attributed to improved economic recovery expectations and ample market liquidity, leading investors to favor financial stocks with stable performance and valuation advantages [1] Group 2 - AIA Group appointed Yu Hong as the new General Manager of AIA Life Insurance, with approval from the National Financial Regulatory Administration. Yu Hong, born in 1968, previously served as the General Manager of Ping An Life Insurance, overseeing daily operations before joining AIA [2] Group 3 - The total scale of credit bond ETFs surpassed 200 billion yuan for the first time as of June 23, marking it as one of the fastest-growing segments in the ETF market this year. This growth is driven by a shift in investor preference towards stable income assets, with the first batch of eight benchmark market-making products launched at the beginning of the year, leading to rapid scale expansion. Continuous policy support has also contributed to the improvement in product design, liquidity management, and trading mechanisms [3] - Credit bond ETFs are expected to become a core component of fixed-income investments due to their low volatility, low cost, and high liquidity, meeting the increasing demand for income-generating assets amid an "asset shortage" environment [3] Group 4 - CITIC Securities announced plans to issue the first broker-dealer technology innovation bond in the interbank bond market, with a basic issuance scale of 500 million yuan and an additional 500 million yuan in excess issuance rights. The bond has a five-year term, with the issuance date set for June 26, 2025. The funds raised will support various initiatives in the technology innovation sector, effectively expanding the issuance channels for broker-dealer technology innovation bonds [4] Group 5 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated a "wait-and-see" strategy during a congressional hearing on June 24, indicating that the Fed is in a position to wait before adjusting its policy stance based on economic developments. This statement is expected to stabilize market sentiment and reduce volatility due to policy uncertainty, while investors will likely focus on economic data to gauge future Fed policy directions [5]

6月25日，A股银行板块继续强势上涨，申万银行指数当日涨幅达到1.05%。板块内42只成份股中，28只 实现上涨。其中，宁波银行以3.01%的涨幅领跑，江苏银行和成都银行也表现突出。 更为亮眼的是，工商银行、农业银行、建设银行等多家银行股价创下历史新高。市场交投活跃，板块单 日成交额突破360亿元，招商银行以28.63亿元的成交额位居榜首，农业银行、江苏银行成交额紧随其 后。 自年初以来，银行板块的表现堪称A股市场中最为亮眼的板块。Wind数据显示，从1月1日至6月25日， 申万银行指数累计涨幅达到15.77%，这一涨幅不仅远超同期仅上涨0.64%的沪深300指数，更是在31个 申万一级行业中位居第一。 展望下半年，银行板块的股息魅力仍将是吸引防御性资金、提供基础支撑的核心力量。 A股银行板块延续年初以来的强势表现，6月25日申万银行指数（WI.801780）涨1.05%，工商银行、农 业银行等国有大行股价更是创下历史新高。 在低利率与资产荒的双重背景下，兼具高股息稀缺性与经营稳健性的银行股，正成为保险资金等长期资 本热捧的"避风港"，推动板块年内累计涨幅已超15%，领跑全市场。 市场观点认为，下半年银行板块 ...

Core Viewpoint - The credit bond ETF market has experienced unprecedented growth, with total scale surpassing 200 billion yuan, driven by a shift in investor preference towards stable income assets and supported by favorable policies [1][3][6]. Group 1: Market Growth and Scale - As of June 23, the total scale of credit bond ETFs reached 204.68 billion yuan, accounting for approximately 57% of the entire bond ETF market [3]. - The initial launch of eight benchmark market-making products at the beginning of the year laid the foundation for this growth, with their combined initial issuance scale of 21.71 billion yuan now exceeding 10 billion yuan each [3]. - The Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange Benchmark Market-Making Corporate Bond ETF has seen its scale grow from 3 billion yuan at the start of the year to over 20 billion yuan, contributing significantly to the overall growth of credit bond ETFs [3]. Group 2: Policy Support and Market Dynamics - Continuous policy support has been a driving force for the development of credit bond ETFs, including the inclusion of these products in the bond general repurchase pledge library [3]. - The announcement of the ability to conduct general pledge-style repurchase transactions for credit bond ETFs led to a significant increase in subscription volume, with the market value of newly listed corporate bond ETFs rising from 39.1 billion yuan to 64.9 billion yuan, a 66% increase [4]. Group 3: Product Characteristics and Investor Demand - Credit bond ETFs are characterized by low volatility, low cost, and high liquidity, making them an attractive option for investors seeking stable income assets in a market characterized by "asset scarcity" [2][5]. - The passive nature of bond funds has gained favor among institutions, leading to an expansion in the scale of credit bond ETFs as they offer a combination of lower risk and relatively stable returns [6]. Group 4: Performance and Cost Advantages - Credit bond ETFs have demonstrated robust long-term return capabilities, often outperforming actively managed credit bond funds in terms of returns while exhibiting lower volatility [8][9]. - The average management fee for credit bond ETFs is approximately 0.165%, with a total cost of around 0.22%, which is lower than the average fees for actively managed credit bond funds [10]. Group 5: Future Outlook and Investment Strategies - The demand for stable income assets is expected to continue rising, and credit bond ETFs are likely to become a preferred choice for more investors, with potential for further growth in scale [10]. - Investors are advised to select credit bond ETFs based on their specific needs, such as liquidity management or credit risk exposure, given the current market's limited variety of these products [11].

Group 1 - The first batch of 26 new floating rate funds has raised over 12.6 billion yuan, with 13 products already established, indicating strong market interest [1] - Credit bond ETFs have seen their total scale exceed 200 billion yuan, marking a significant growth in the ETF market, driven by a shift towards stable income assets [1] - The People's Bank of China is set to conduct a 300 billion yuan MLF operation, ensuring liquidity remains ample in the market [2] Group 2 - Guotai Junan International has become the first Chinese broker to receive approval for virtual asset trading services, expanding its offerings to include cryptocurrencies [2] - The popularity of the "Su Super" event has significantly boosted weekend consumer spending in participating cities, with a notable increase in group purchase orders [3] - A surge in A-share buybacks has been observed, with 666 companies or major shareholders obtaining buyback loans totaling approximately 133.96 billion yuan [3] Group 3 - BlackBerry reported first-quarter revenue of $121.7 million, exceeding market expectations, and provided guidance for the second quarter [5] - Xero has announced a $2.5 billion acquisition of Melio, a payment platform for small businesses, indicating a strategic move in the fintech sector [5] - Ant Group has reduced its stake in ZhongAn Insurance, becoming the fourth largest shareholder after cashing out approximately 654 million HKD [6] Group 4 - Sanhua Intelligent Controls expects a 25%-50% increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, reflecting positive growth prospects [6] - U.S. stock indices have all risen over 1%, with the Nasdaq reaching a four-month high, driven by easing geopolitical tensions and favorable market conditions [7][8] - The easing of Middle Eastern tensions has led to a significant drop in oil prices, benefiting airline stocks, while gold prices have also decreased [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum [1] - Bearish: Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Polysilicon, Carbonate Lithium, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Coking Coal, Coke [1] - Neutral: Stock Index, Treasury Bond, Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Industrial Silicon, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Glass, Soda Ash, Corn, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Gasoline, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Styrene, PVC, Calcined Anthracite, LPG, Container Shipping on the European Route [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term stock index is expected to show a weak and volatile pattern due to weak domestic fundamentals, a policy vacuum, and high overseas uncertainties. However, the decline space is limited under the background of "asset shortage" and "national team" support [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. - Gold prices may remain high and volatile in the short term due to uncertainties in the Middle East situation [1]. - The prices of various metals and agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, inventory levels, geopolitical situations, and policy changes, showing different trends [1]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - The stock index is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, with limited decline space. Bond futures are affected by asset shortage and weak economy, but the upward space is suppressed by interest rate risk warnings [1]. Precious Metals - Gold prices may remain high and volatile in the short term due to Middle East uncertainties. Silver prices are mainly volatile due to the game between macro and fundamentals [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices may remain high and volatile as copper inventories are expected to decline further. Aluminum prices are strong due to low inventory levels. Alumina prices are volatile, with the spot price falling and the futures price under pressure from increased production. Zinc prices face upward pressure, and nickel prices are weakly volatile in the short term and pressured by long - term over - supply [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices are in a window of switching from peak to off - peak seasons, with no upward driving force. Iron ore prices are affected by the expected peak of molten iron and supply increments in June. Coke and coking coal prices are bearish [1]. Agricultural Products - Sugar production in Brazil is expected to increase in the 2025/26 season. Corn prices are expected to be volatile, and soybean meal prices are expected to be volatile with different trends for different contracts. Cotton prices are expected to be weakly volatile [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil's impact on related products is complex. Products such as gasoline, fuel oil, and asphalt are affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, consumption seasons, and inventory levels. Chemical products like PTA, ethylene glycol, and short - fiber are affected by geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand relationships [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The current market has a strong consensus on the bond market. Geopolitical and macro - environmental factors are favorable to the bond market, and the monetary policy is in a loosening trend. The impact of supply logic is expected to slow down in the third quarter. One can continue to explore convex points on the curve and certain bond types with spreads, and should also set up right - side profit - taking strategies at the end of the half - year [3]. - More than 70% of fixed - income sellers are bullish on the bond market this week, and the sentiment has significantly warmed up. The sentiment index of both sellers and buyers is approaching the annual high, with more than half of the institutions being bullish [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Seller and Buyer Markets 1.1 Seller Market Sentiment Index and Interest - rate Bonds - The weighted sentiment index this week is 0.55, and the unweighted index is 0.68, up 0.11 from last week. 72% of institutions are bullish, 21% neutral, and 7% bearish [11]. 1.2 Buyer Market Sentiment Index and Interest - rate Bonds - The buyer sentiment index this week is 0.35, up 0.12 from last week. 52% of institutions are bullish, and 48% are neutral [12]. 1.3 Credit Bonds - Market hot topics include seasonal entry of wealth management products and market's expectation of monetary easing. After the quarter - end, the scale of wealth management products expands, and the central bank maintains a loose capital environment [18]. 1.4 Convertible Bonds - This week, institutions hold a neutral - to - bullish view. 23% of institutions are bullish, and 77% are neutral [20]. 2. Treasury Futures Tracking 2.1 Futures Trading - As of June 20, the prices, trading volumes, and open interests of TS/TF/T/TL treasury futures contracts all increased, while the trading - to - open - interest ratios generally decreased [22][23]. 2.2 Spot Bond Trading - On June 20, the turnover rate of 30Y treasury bonds and interest - rate bonds increased, while that of 10Y CDB bonds decreased [31][34]. 2.3 Basis Trading - As of June 20, the basis of the TS contract widened, and the net basis of TS and T contracts widened. The IRR of TF slightly decreased, while others increased [39][43]. 2.4 Spread Trading - As of June 20, except for the narrowing of the inter - delivery spread of the T contract, other inter - delivery spreads and all inter - product spreads widened [51].

Group 1 - The market sentiment around Hai Tian Wei Ye has been volatile, with initial enthusiasm leading to a significant drop in stock price on the listing day, falling below the issue price [1][2] - The recent trend in the market shows that the perception of risk-free arbitrage in IPOs has shifted, with a high probability of losses being observed in recent offerings [2][3] - The performance of other companies like Hengrui Medicine and CATL has created a misleading expectation of easy profits from IPOs, contributing to the current market dynamics [2][6] Group 2 - The recent market downturn has affected various sectors, including new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals, indicating a broader sentiment shift [6] - The liquidity in the Hong Kong market remains high, as evidenced by the drop in overnight Hibor rates, yet this has not translated into positive market performance for many stocks [6] - The focus on stocks that are currently declining is emphasized, suggesting a strategy to concentrate on potential recovery opportunities rather than chasing new IPOs [4][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, it is a good window for non - bank institutions to take long positions. They should maintain long - term durations and seize the bull market around the end of the quarter. It is expected that long - term bond yields will hit new lows around the end of the quarter, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield is expected to fall to the 1.4% - 1.5% level in the third quarter [6][21]. 3. Summary by Related Content Bond Market Performance - This week, the bond market continued to strengthen in a volatile manner, with more significant declines in the yields of non - active varieties. The overnight rate remained around 1.4%, and R007 stayed within 1.6%. The yields of 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds decreased by 0.4bps and 1.2bps to 1.64% and 1.84% respectively. The yields of other varieties declined more notably, such as the 1 - year certificate of deposit yield dropping by 3.3bps to 1.64%, and the yields of 3 - year and 5 - year AAA - secondary capital bonds falling by 2.7bps and 2.4bps to 1.81% and 1.91% last week [1][9]. Narrowing of Yield Spreads - Recently, non - active bonds or non - active varieties have outperformed active bonds or active varieties, with significant narrowing of relevant yield spreads. For example, the yield of the 50 - year Treasury bond dropped from 2.08% at the end of last month to 1.95% on June 20, a decrease of 12.3bps, and the yield spread between the 50 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds narrowed by 6.4bps. The yield spread between 30 - year local government bonds and Treasury bonds also narrowed by 2.8bps this week, and the yield spread between 10 - year AAA medium - term notes and 10 - year Treasury bonds narrowed by 4.2bps to 41.4bps last week. The yield spread between non - active and active bonds also significantly narrowed, such as the spread between the 30 - year active bond (2500002.IB) and the second - active bond (2400006.IB) narrowing by 2.2bps this week. The narrowing is mainly due to two reasons: first, after the yields approach previous lows, key varieties receive more attention, and before key points are broken through, the market compresses non - active varieties and tenors; second, strong long - buying sentiment and improved liquidity of relevant varieties compress the premium of ultra - long bonds, which is most evident in the 50 - year Treasury bond [2][10]. Selling Pressure from Banks - If the market space is to be further expanded, active varieties need to break through key points, which may occur around the end of this quarter. The key force is banks, especially city and rural commercial banks. Due to the pressure of quarter - end indicator assessments such as average duration and liquidity indicators, as well as the need to realize floating profits when banks' profitability is insufficient, banks usually face significant bond - selling pressure at the quarter - end. Currently, small and medium - sized banks may face greater selling pressure than large - sized banks. On one hand, the central bank's care for liquidity and the significant decline in the liability costs of large - sized banks have alleviated their pressure; on the other hand, the profitability of small and medium - sized banks may be weaker than that of large - sized banks. In the first quarter, the year - on - year net profit growth rate of city commercial banks declined the most, at - 6.7%, while those of joint - stock banks and rural commercial banks were - 4.5% and - 2.0% respectively, and large - sized banks had a slight positive growth of 0.1%. Seasonally, small and medium - sized banks usually reduce their bond holdings in May or June, and this reduction is more obvious considering government bond supply. They will then increase their bond allocations in July and August [3][13]. Asset Shortage Situation - The current market is in an asset shortage situation. On one hand, the supply of government bonds is slowing down, and it is expected to slow down in the second half of the year. From the perspective of year - on - year increase, government bonds may enter a stage of year - on - year decrease in the third quarter. Due to the accelerated credit投放 in the previous period and the increase in real interest rates, the credit rhythm has also slowed down, as reflected by the year - on - year decrease in new credit in April and May of the second quarter. On the other hand, the supply of funds remains abundant, and the liability side of banks remains stable. The current capital price is significantly lower than the same period in previous years, and even when the quarter - end shock occurs, the funds are not significantly tightened. The liability side of small and medium - sized banks is stable, with a deposit growth rate of 7.7% in May, an increase from April, indicating that small and medium - sized banks are generally under - allocated in the context of asset shortage [4][16]. Future Bond - Buying Behavior of Banks - For banks, the bonds sold before the quarter - end may be bought back after the quarter - end. Small and medium - sized banks find it difficult to continuously sell bonds in the context of asset shortage. After the quarter - end indicator pressure eases, banks are more likely to buy back bonds. If not, the funds obtained from selling bonds will continue to exist in the form of excess reserves or short - term capital lending, which will lead to looser funds after the quarter - end, and the capital price may fall more than expected. The decline in short - term interest rates will lead to a steeper yield curve and increase the cost - effectiveness of long - term bonds. In a market where supply is lower than demand, the shift of small and medium - sized banks from large - scale selling to buying may lead to a further rapid strengthening of the market, and bond yields may experience a new downward trend [5][19].

险资扫货不歇脚！ 港交所披露易最新信息显示，平安人寿于6月17日增持629.55万股招商银行H股股份之后，于当日达到该行H股 股本的15%，根据香港市场规则，触发举牌。 在此之前，平安人寿曾在1月10日、3月13日分别举牌招行H股，所持该行H股数量占其H股总数分别突破5%、 10%。而此番举牌，也是平安人寿半年内第三次举牌招行H股。 截至目前，2025年已有13家上市公司被险资举牌，包括5家银行，招行则是唯一一家被三度举牌的上市银行。 此外，平安人寿还分别两度举牌农业银行H股、邮储银行H股。 三度举牌招商银行 据披露易信息，早在1月10日，平安人寿就首次举牌招行H股，所持该行H股数量当时就达到该行H股股本的 5%。 3月13日，平安人寿又耗资近3亿港元，在场内增持606.75万股招行H股，持股占比突破该行H股总数的10%， 构成二度举牌。 而6月17日再度增持629.55万股招行H股股份之后，平人寿所持该行招行H股总数已达该行H股股本的15%，构 成第三次举牌。 以此计算，1月10日至6月17日，平安人寿合计增持近4.61亿股招行H股。以区间成交均价计，其间合计耗资近 215亿港元。 截至6月17日，平安人寿 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced significant net inflows and outflows from Northbound trading, with a total net buy of HKD 15.51 billion on June 20, 2023, indicating active trading dynamics among various stocks [1]. Group 1: Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading saw a net buy of HKD 27.93 billion through the Shenzhen Stock Connect and a net sell of HKD 12.42 billion through the Shanghai Stock Connect [1]. - The most bought stocks included China Construction Bank (00939), SMIC (00981), and Southern Hang Seng Technology (03033) [1]. - The most sold stocks were Tencent (00700), Bank of China (03988), and the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800) [1]. Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - China Construction Bank received a net buy of HKD 6.89 billion, while Bank of China faced a net sell of HKD 6.49 billion [6]. - SMIC had a net buy of HKD 5.32 billion, despite cautious guidance for Q2, and faced product yield fluctuations due to equipment performance issues [6]. - Southern Hang Seng Technology saw a net buy of HKD 4.29 billion, while the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong experienced a net sell of HKD 6.17 billion [7]. Group 3: Market Insights and Trends - Analysts predict that the Hong Kong stock market may face a "liquidity surplus" and limited returns, leading to a structural market environment [7]. - Meituan (03690) received a net buy of HKD 2.18 billion, supported by its strong market position and operational efficiency [7]. - Alibaba (09988) faced a net sell of HKD 4.32 billion, with growth rates slowing compared to previous periods, despite maintaining a 49% market share [8].