12月16日，在全球资产配置逻辑不断演变的背景下，Moneta Markets外汇认为，黄金在中长期内具备持 续跑赢美元资产和美国国债的潜力。随着市场对利率周期和货币环境的重新定价，黄金作为非收益型资 产的配置价值正在被重新审视，尤其在价格回调阶段，更容易吸引中长期资金布局。 从资产配置结构来看，维持较高比例的黄金配置，反映出机构投资者对传统固定收益资产吸引力下降的 判断。在通胀挂钩债券与公司债配置被明显削减的情况下，黄金仍保持稳定权重，显示其在多资产组合 中兼具防御与进攻属性。Moneta Markets外汇表示，同时，资产表现"扩散化"的趋势正在形成，不同市 场与不同资产类别轮动加快，黄金在其中扮演了重要角色。 展望未来，市场对金价的长期预期依然偏乐观。相关机构预计，随着利率逐步下行、货币政策趋于温 和，黄金价格有望在未来一年至数年内继续上探。围绕2026年的周期判断中，金价冲击更高水平被视为 基于宏观环境变化的合理推演。 综合来看，在美联储政策逐步向中性甚至偏宽松方向调整、实际利率仍处于高位但存在回落空间的环境 下，黄金的风险对冲与资产分散价值更加突出。Moneta Markets外汇表示，尤其是在股票 ...

Core Insights - The luxury real estate market in Shanghai has shown significant resilience and growth, with transactions of luxury properties priced over 10 million yuan increasing by 21% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, compared to a mere 5% increase in ordinary new homes [2][17] - The majority of this growth is concentrated in Shanghai, where 80% of luxury homes sold for over 50 million yuan are located, and 15 out of 19 properties sold for over 100 million yuan nationwide are also in Shanghai [2][17] - The luxury market is evolving, with some buyers viewing luxury homes as consumables rather than investments, while others are opting to rent instead of purchase, indicating a shift in buyer sentiment [2][19] Market Dynamics - The luxury market has seen a surge in demand, with high-profile projects like the "Cuihu Huating" selling out quickly, indicating a strong appetite among wealthy buyers [4][10] - New luxury developments are emerging in previously limited supply areas, with a notable increase in new luxury homes being marketed as "pre-sale" properties [6][8] - The introduction of a points-based lottery system for new home purchases has created a competitive environment, further driving demand for luxury properties [9][10] Buyer Behavior - Wealthy buyers are increasingly viewing luxury homes as a means of asset allocation, with many opting for larger units to accommodate family needs, reflecting changing lifestyle preferences [10][11] - The perception of luxury homes is shifting, with some buyers now considering them as depreciating assets rather than purely investment vehicles, leading to a more cautious approach in purchasing [22][48] - The market is witnessing a diversification of buyers, with a significant proportion of non-local buyers, particularly from Zhejiang and Jiangsu provinces, becoming key players in the luxury segment [33] Supply and Pricing Trends - The supply of luxury homes is increasing, with a notable rise in projects priced above 10 million yuan, leading to a more competitive market environment [54] - The average price for high-end residential properties in Shanghai has reached record levels, with some areas seeing prices as high as 24.32 million yuan per square meter [17][39] - The traditional price premium of second-hand luxury homes over new builds is diminishing, as new luxury properties are now being offered at competitive prices [50][52] Developer Strategies - Developers are adapting to market changes by offering more flexible financing options and reducing entry barriers for buyers, indicating a shift in strategy to stimulate sales [52] - The competitive landscape among developers is intensifying, with major players like Greenland and China Overseas actively acquiring prime land parcels to bolster their luxury offerings [39][40] - The luxury market is becoming increasingly segmented, with a clear hierarchy emerging based on location and property features, influencing buyer preferences and pricing strategies [27][30]

Group 1: Global Asset Allocation - The core viewpoint emphasizes that investors should focus on building resilient investment portfolios amid uncertainty rather than trying to predict market turning points [2] - Morgan Stanley's chief economist for China, Xing Ziqiang, predicts that the US economy will maintain resilience over the next two years, with real growth close to 2% and nominal growth reaching 4-5% [3] - The support for this prediction is based on the "AI investment boom" and the unique US strategy of "high growth, high inflation, and low interest rate" for debt management [3] Group 2: Market Perspectives - Lianhua Asset Management's partner, Hong Hao, anticipates significant market volatility in 2026 due to potential Federal Reserve policy missteps, suggesting that the dollar may be losing its traditional safe-haven status [4] - Hong Hao believes that the US stock market may experience a "rise then fall" pattern, with liquidity cycles still supporting risk assets in the short term, but warns of high valuation risks [4] - In contrast, Hong Hao is more optimistic about commodities, particularly industrial metals, which he sees as essential in the AI era for building data and energy centers [4][5] Group 3: Domestic Market Insights - Xing Ziqiang highlights the "bright side" of the Chinese economy, noting that new technology sectors provide opportunities for investors, especially after the "9.24 policy" improved market vitality [8] - Hong Hao points out that China is undergoing a significant transition from a real estate-driven economy to one driven by new productive forces, including AI and robotics [8] - The outlook for the Chinese stock market is characterized by dynamic highlights that can sustain growth despite macroeconomic challenges [8][10] Group 4: Long-term Strategy - Xing Ziqiang proposes a new asset allocation strategy termed "6-2-2," suggesting 60% in equities, 20% in gold, and 20% in bonds, reflecting a reassessment of strategic asset values amid declining fiat currency credibility [10] - Hong Hao expresses cautious optimism about gold, suggesting potential prices of $4000 for gold and $60 for silver, while noting that current prices may already reflect most positive factors [11] - The final investment advice emphasizes the importance of position management and constructing a portfolio with multiple independent sources of alpha to achieve controllable volatility and attractive returns [12]

Core Insights - The traditional safety of bank deposits is diminishing as interest rates fail to keep pace with inflation, leading to a sense of financial anxiety among individuals [1][9] - The investment landscape is fraught with risks, and many are falling prey to scams promising high returns, particularly among those less familiar with financial markets [11][15] Group 1: Bank Deposits and Inflation - Bank deposit interest rates have significantly declined from 3.25% in 2021 to below 2.15% by 2024, with some banks offering rates as low as 1.95% [3] - The purchasing power of money is eroding, with essential goods like vegetables and medications experiencing price increases, leading to a phenomenon termed "invisible shrinkage" of wealth [5][7] Group 2: Investment Risks and Scams - Many individuals are seeking higher returns due to low interest rates, making them vulnerable to scams that promise guaranteed profits [11][13] - Financial products from banks are also yielding lower returns, with some investment products dropping by as much as 150 basis points, leading to significant losses for investors [15] Group 3: Economic Environment and Employment - The rise of AI is contributing to a cycle of "technological unemployment," where job losses lead to reduced consumer spending, further exacerbating economic challenges [17] - Historical comparisons, such as the "lost two decades" in Germany and Japan, highlight the importance of stable asset allocation over speculative investments during turbulent times [19][41] Group 4: Entrepreneurship Challenges - The entrepreneurial landscape has become increasingly difficult, with over 80% of new restaurant ventures failing within months due to market saturation and rising costs [24][26] - Successful entrepreneurs are those who adapt to market demands and invest in skills that meet real needs, rather than following trends blindly [28] Group 5: Financial Management Strategies - A shift in wealth management strategies is evident, with individuals prioritizing certainty over high returns, reflecting lessons learned from past financial pitfalls [17][20] - The concept of "stable and detailed" financial management is emphasized, advocating for a balanced approach to savings, investments, and personal development [32][35]

Group 1 - The overall asset performance indicates that various asset classes have entered a period of fluctuation, with the equity market experiencing a high-level consolidation phase, primarily driven by the technology sector, while consumer and cyclical sectors remain weak [1][6]. - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut was weaker than expected, limiting its positive impact on the U.S. and global economies, which in turn affects the capital markets [1][6]. - The Central Economic Work Conference in China reiterated a stable growth approach, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and improving investment, although the implementation of these policies may take time to materialize [2][10]. Group 2 - The A-share market is currently in a high-level consolidation phase, with limited substantial positive news and a preference for stability as the new year approaches [2][10]. - The report suggests a "barbell strategy" for asset allocation, recommending maintaining positions in the technology sector while cautiously considering opportunities in the consumer sector due to recent positive macro data [2][11]. - The technology sector is expected to remain a core driver of market performance, with significant opportunities arising from national competition and domestic innovation [10][11]. Group 3 - The bond market is following the trends of the equity market, showing a clear negative correlation, and is expected to remain under pressure without significant positive catalysts [3][32]. - The bond market's configuration suggests limited upward potential in the short term, but it may serve as a stabilizing option against equity market volatility [32]. Group 4 - The commodity market is experiencing a return to a fluctuating trend, with precious metals like silver supporting the upward movement of the precious metals index, while energy and chemical commodities are underperforming [4][41]. - The report anticipates that gold may continue to rise in the long term, driven by a decoupling from the U.S. dollar, although the overall strength of the commodity market will depend on the performance of metals and agricultural products [41][45].

各位投资者朋友大家上午好欢迎来到2025年收官的年终的宏观策略谈我们今天关注对26年中国宏观政策的定调 对产业竞争格局和出口的前景还有就是经历了美联储的降息会议和中国的经济工作会议之后现在对于美股欧股和亚洲的股票的资产配置的博弈 今天像往常一样我会来抛砖引玉紧接着我们的首席策略师Laura会讲中美重量级会议之后对全球股市配置的最新看法我的同事郑林会讲刚刚出炉的经济数据对接下来经济工作会议也已经结束了12月到一季度之间几个政策抓手的时间顺序的想法 刚刚公布的数据反映出来的四季度的一些倾向可能让这种前置有了迫切感但这个前置更多的还是投向了基建比如说城市更新地下管网改造绿色转型的储能电网以及一些跟AI算力中心相关的公共开支领域 那么当然到了一年之中的六到九月份之间如果上半年的形势演绎从地产到物价到就业有进一步的情况的出现像刚才我们讲到的形势比人强也可能会追加相当于GDP0.5个点的新增的裁定空间我觉得现在国务院以及决策层是有这方面的灵活性进行相继抉择的 同样我们也考虑到当前整个中国经济打破通缩到足且长但是产业竞争的亮点是不乏的所以我们的亚洲经济学家Derek会来汇报一下我们刚刚出炉的一份深度报告对于中国的产业竞争格 ...

此次全景式的活动主题安排，旨在让不同风险偏好、关注不同领域的投资者都能找到感兴趣的方向，为 投资者提供一些投资启迪与思考，更好地捕捉长期投资机遇。具体而言，本系列直播活动内容涵盖资产 配置、行业洞察和策略展望三大维度。 在资产配置方面，将围绕主动权益、债券市场、黄金资产、海外市场、养老规划、量化投资等主题，并 结合"十五五"规划、美联储降息会议、个人养老金政策三周年等热点时事进行分析解读。 在行业洞察环节，投研嘉宾将聚焦AI科技、医药、消费、新能源、军工等投资主线，深入解析行业发 展趋势，帮助投资者洞察潜在机遇。而在策略展望环节，广发基金宏观策略部总经理武幼辉博士将为投 资者带来2026年宏观经济与市场展望，为新一年的投资方向提供参考。 此外，本次直播活动特别邀请了广发基金投资管理部的账户经理团队担任主持人，与嘉宾展开深度对 话。该团队不仅拥有丰富的知识体系与专业的投研视角，还带来了许多投资者关心的市场、行业问题， 能够作为投研嘉宾和投资者之间的桥梁，为大家带来更接地气的专业内容分析。 2025的浪潮奔涌还未停歇，2026的深流已蓄势待发，新机于无声处涌动。广发基金希望通过"一马当先 盈新年"系列直播，汇聚投 ...

在竞争日益激烈的资管行业，锐联如何构建自身优势？许仲翔从理念与实际操作层面阐述了其差异化路 径。 作为知名外资私募锐联景淳海外母公司锐联的创始人，许仲翔博士在量化投资与资产配置领域一直扮演 着连接东西方市场的桥梁角色。从联合发明基本面量化策略（RAFI），到带领锐联深耕中国市场，再 到8年前锐联向华夏基金等公募机构进行策略授权，这位兼具深厚学术背景与全球资产管理经验的学者 型投资人，其观点备受市场关注。近日，许仲翔接受了中国证券报记者的专访，围绕公司的策略实践、 2026年市场前瞻及行业变革等议题，发表了自己的看法。 多元资产策略获市场认可 回顾2025年，许仲翔将公司最大的突破归结于核心策略——量化多元资产配置策略获得了市场的理解与 接纳。"过去一两年，这类配置型产品因其复杂性，投资者接受需要一个过程。"许仲翔坦言，市场环境 的变化成为了理念普及的催化剂。利率持续低位徘徊、传统"刚兑"理财消失、股市起伏震荡，这些因素 让投资者意识到，没有任何单一资产品种能持续获得收益。 "当市场处于单边趋势时，大家会追逐简单的贝塔；当有保底产品时，保守者也无需他求。但现在，我 们进入了一个'真正的大资管时代'。"许仲翔说， ...

12月16日热门路演速递丨前瞻2026：新质生产力、港股与商业航天如何 布局？ 01 核心看点： 2026年宏观经济"修复式增长"下如何实现再平衡？市场策略"攻守易形"将如何影响资产配置？金融工程 领域的基准库落地又怎样推动投资进入工具化新时代？本次策略会将从宏观、策略与金融工程三维度解 析新蓝图。 2026年宏观经济将如何影响指数化投资布局？创业板50ETF作为新质生产力代表具备哪些估值优 势？"黄金+"策略在当前利率环境下如何增强资产组合韧性？港股与海外市场又存在哪些结构性机会？ 嘉宾： 扫码预约 李超丨浙商证券首席经济学家、研究所联席所长 倪斌丨指数与量化投资部副总监、基金经理 苏卿云丨指数与量化投资部副总监，基金经理 许之彦丨华安基金总经理助理，首席指数投资官 王立新丨世界黄金协会中国区CEO 徐灵琳丨指数与量化投资部 分析师/主持人 02 西部证券 | 新蓝图 新突破 - 2026年度策略会年度策略报告巡礼之总量篇上午场 9:30-12:00 指数专场：指数赋能，积木星球（上） | 实力为鞍，乘势笃行——华安基金2026马年 投资嘉年华 09:00-11:30 核心看点： 嘉宾： 边泉水丨西部证券宏 ...

分析人士表示，今年ETF总规模增长较快，在于产品创新和投资者行为变化等多重因素共同作用，其中机构投资者配置需 求增加或是主因，包括保险公司、养老金等机构，为了实现资产的长期稳健增值，需要配置一定比例的权益类资产，而ETF作 为透明度高、流动性好的投资工具，成为机构投资者进行资产配置的首要选择。 按照挂钩指数统计来看，截至目前，包括AAA科创债、沪深300、SGE（上海黄金交易所）黄金9999和恒生科技等4个挂钩 指数的ETF规模增长超过1000亿元，其中AAA科创债和沪深300等2只挂钩ETF的产品规模增长均接近2000亿元。此外，另有港 股通互联网、沪做市公司债、中证1000、港股通创新药、中证500、机器人和港股通科技等41个挂钩指数的ETF产品年内规模 增长均在100亿元以上。 对此，上述分析人士表示，上述ETF产品规模出现较大程度增长的原因，或在于其对应的资产吸引力有所提升。同时，投 资者风险偏好转变，对高评级信用债、大盘蓝筹股等资产需求上升。此外，基金管理人通过策略调整优化了产品流动性，进一 步巩固了投资者信心。 本报记者 王宁 今年以来，ETF（交易型开放式指数基金）总规模增长显著。Wind资讯统 ...