Market Overview - Major US stock indices remained flat, with investors assessing the latest employment market signals and solidifying expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week [2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 31.96 points, or 0.07%, at 47,850.94 points; the S&P 500 rose 7.40 points, or 0.11%, to 6,857.12 points; and the Nasdaq Composite increased by 51.04 points, or 0.22%, to 23,505.14 points [2] - Small-cap stocks continued to lead, with the Russell 2000 index rising 0.76% to a record high of 2,531.16 points [2] Sector Performance - The technology sector showed mixed performance, with Meta rising 3.43% on news of a potential 30% budget cut for its Metaverse projects, while Amazon fell 1.41% amid discussions with the USPS [2] - Other notable movements included Nvidia up 2.11%, Tesla up 1.74%, Microsoft up 0.65%, Google A down 0.63%, and Apple down 1.21% [2] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose 0.39% to 7,731.88 points, with most popular Chinese stocks increasing, including Canadian Solar up 5.55% and NIO up 4.92% [3] - However, Yum China fell 1.35%, Boss Zhipin dropped 2.59%, and Daqo New Energy decreased by 2.93% [3] Employment Data - Initial jobless claims fell to 191,000, the lowest since September 2022, significantly below economists' expectations of 220,000 [3] - The Chicago Fed's model estimates the unemployment rate to remain around 4.4%, indicating mixed signals in the labor market [3] Interest Rate Expectations - Expectations for a rate cut have strengthened, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut rising to nearly 90%, up from about 60% last month [3] - Market participants are cautious ahead of the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, a key inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve [3] Bond Market - US Treasury prices fell, ending a three-day rise, as traders interpreted the low jobless claims as a sign of labor market resilience, slightly reducing the likelihood of a rapid economic slowdown [4] - The 10-year Treasury yield rose by 5.2 basis points to 4.108%, while the 30-year yield increased by 4.1 basis points to 4.766% [4] Individual Stocks - Kroger shares fell 4.62% due to a narrowed annual sales forecast and quarterly earnings that missed expectations, impacting the consumer staples sector [4] - Snowflake shares plummeted 11.41% as its fourth-quarter product revenue guidance fell short of high growth expectations [5] - Hormel Foods rose 3.82% on better-than-expected full-year profit forecasts, while Dollar General surged 10.5% after raising its full-year guidance [5] Commodity Prices - International oil prices increased, with light crude oil for January delivery rising by $0.72 to $59.67 per barrel, a 1.22% increase [5] - Spot gold prices slightly rose by 0.1% to $4,210.49, while COMEX gold futures increased by 0.2% to settle at $4,243.00 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of major U.S. stock indices, employment data, and expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, highlighting a mixed sentiment in the market as investors await key economic indicators [3][5]. Group 1: Stock Market Performance - Major U.S. stock indices were mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 31.96 points (0.07%) to 47850.94, while the S&P 500 rose 7.40 points (0.11%) to 6857.12, and the Nasdaq Composite increased by 51.04 points (0.22%) to 23505.14 [3]. - The Russell 2000 index, representing small-cap stocks, rose 0.76% to 2531.16, reaching a new all-time high [3]. - In the tech sector, Meta's stock rose 3.43% due to plans to cut its metaverse budget by up to 30%, while Amazon's stock fell 1.41% amid partnership discussions with the U.S. Postal Service [3]. Group 2: Employment Data - Initial jobless claims fell to 191,000, the lowest since September 2022, significantly below economists' expectations of 220,000, although seasonal fluctuations due to the Thanksgiving holiday may have influenced this figure [4]. - The Chicago Fed's model estimates the unemployment rate to remain around 4.4%, indicating mixed signals in the labor market [5]. Group 3: Interest Rate Expectations - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month has risen to nearly 90%, up from about 60% last month [5]. - Market participants are not only anticipating the rate cut but are also closely watching for indications of future policy directions from Fed Chair Jerome Powell [5]. Group 4: Individual Stock Movements - Snowflake's stock dropped 11.41% due to fourth-quarter product revenue guidance falling short of high growth expectations [6]. - Hormel Foods' stock rose 3.82% as the company projected better-than-expected annual profits, while Dollar General's stock increased by 10.5% after raising its annual guidance [6]. Group 5: Commodity Prices - International oil prices increased, with light crude oil for January delivery rising by $0.72 to $59.67 per barrel (1.22% increase), and Brent crude for February delivery up by $0.59 to $63.26 per barrel (0.94% increase) [6]. - Spot gold prices slightly increased by 0.1% to $4210.49, while COMEX gold futures rose by 0.2% to settle at $4243.00 [7].

Group 1 - UK businesses expect a slight increase in price expectations, with an average anticipated rise of 3.7% over the next year, up by 0.1% from the previous month [1] - Employment outlook has weakened, with a decrease of 0.1% to -0.2% over the last three months, indicating plans for a modest reduction in workforce [1] - Consumer price inflation expectations remain stable at 3.4%, while actual inflation has decreased to 3.6%, suggesting a potential peak in inflation and supporting the case for a future rate cut from the current 4% [1] Group 2 - The UK energy regulator Ofgem has approved a £28 billion investment plan over five years, which will increase annual energy bills for consumers by an average of £108 [3] - This investment is aimed at ensuring the security and reliability of the future energy system, despite previous government commitments to lower energy prices [3][4] - Major energy infrastructure companies have welcomed the decision, recognizing the need for significant investment to double electricity transport capacity [4] Group 3 - Concerns over tax adjustments in the upcoming budget have led to a historic sell-off in UK stock funds, with net outflows reaching £3 billion in November, marking the longest streak of outflows on record [5] - The total net outflow over the past six months has reached £10.4 billion, reflecting investor anxiety regarding potential cuts to investment tax incentives [5] - Following the announcement of the budget, which included some tax increases but not as severe as feared, there was a notable reversal in fund flows, indicating a recovery in investor sentiment [5] Group 4 - The UK construction sector has experienced its fastest contraction since May 2020, with the PMI dropping from 44.1 to 39.4, indicating a prolonged downturn [6] - All major sectors within construction, including civil engineering, residential, and commercial building, have shown significant declines, with residential activity hitting its lowest level since May 2020 [6][7] - The decline in construction activity is attributed to weak client confidence and a lack of new project starts, exacerbated by uncertainty surrounding the budget announcement [6][7] Group 5 - The overall PMI for services, manufacturing, and construction in November was 50.1, down from 51.4 in October, indicating a weakening economic momentum in the UK [8] - The construction industry's employment index has fallen to its lowest level since August 2020, with companies citing high wage costs and reduced workloads as contributing factors [7][8]

Market Overview - Major U.S. stock indices remained stable, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rising for three consecutive days, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell slightly by 31.96 points, or 0.07%, closing at 47,850.94 points [2] - The labor market showed mixed signals, with initial jobless claims dropping to a three-year low of 191,000, significantly below economists' expectations of 220,000 [4] - The Chicago Fed's model estimates the unemployment rate to remain around 4.4%, indicating a resilient labor market despite some concerns [4] Company Performance - In the technology sector, Meta's stock rose by 3.43% following news of a potential 30% budget cut for its Metaverse projects, while Amazon's stock fell by 1.41% due to ongoing discussions with the U.S. Postal Service [2] - Snowflake's stock plummeted by 11.41% as its fourth-quarter product revenue guidance fell short of high growth expectations [6] - Hormel Foods saw a stock increase of 3.82% as the company projected better-than-expected annual profits, while Dollar General's stock surged by 10.5% after raising its annual guidance [7] Commodity Performance - International oil prices increased, with light crude oil for January delivery rising by $0.72 to $59.67 per barrel, a 1.22% increase, and Brent crude for February delivery up by $0.59 to $63.26, a 0.94% increase [7] - Spot gold prices slightly rose by 0.1% to $4,210.49, while COMEX gold futures increased by 0.2%, settling at $4,243.00 [7]

责任编辑：李桐 美国国债期货跌至日内低点，因周度初请失业救济人数总计19.1万人，低于经济学家预期中值22万人， 降至三年多来的最低水平。前值上修2000人。持续申请失业救济人数也低于预期，且前值被下修。 美国国债收益率上升2-4个基点，收益率曲线中段价格领跌，5年期与30年期利差维持在盘中低位附近。 10年期国债收益率一度攀升4.5个基点至4.11%左右。 美国国债期货跌至日内低点，因周度初请失业救济人数总计19.1万人，低于经济学家预期中值22万人， 降至三年多来的最低水平。前值上修2000人。持续申请失业救济人数也低于预期，且前值被下修。 美国国债收益率上升2-4个基点，收益率曲线中段价格领跌，5年期与30年期利差维持在盘中低位附近。 10年期国债收益率一度攀升4.5个基点至4.11%左右。 美联储定价的隔夜指数掉期市场持稳，定价显示12月10日政策会议将降息约22个基点，12月和1月联邦 公开市场委员会会议累计降息30个基点。 责任编辑：李桐 美联储定价的隔夜指数掉期市场持稳，定价显示12月10日政策会议将降息约22个基点，12月和1月联邦 公开市场委员会会议累计降息30个基点。 ...

Group 1 - The bond market experienced a significant decline on December 4, with all government bond futures showing negative performance, particularly the 30-year bond futures hitting a new low since November 23, 2024 [1][3] - As of the close on December 4, the main contracts for various maturities of government bonds fell, with the 30-year bond futures down by 1.04% to 112.45, and the 10-year bond futures down by 0.35% to 107.67 [3][4] - The yields on active government bonds also increased, with the 30-year bond yield rising by 1.9 basis points to 2.26%, and the 10-year bond yield up by 1.3 basis points to 1.85% [4] Group 2 - The overall trend in the bond market has been weak since December, with cumulative declines in the main contracts for various maturities, including a 1.78% drop for the 30-year bonds [5] - Multiple factors are influencing the bond market's performance, including tightening liquidity and changing expectations regarding monetary policy, as evidenced by the People's Bank of China's recent operations [7][8] - Market sentiment remains cautious, with expectations of limited positive reactions to favorable fundamentals due to the uncertainty surrounding new public fund sales regulations [10]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market experienced a significant decline on December 4, with all government bond futures showing negative performance, particularly the 30-year bond futures reaching a new low since November 23, 2024 [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of the close on December 4, the main contracts for government bond futures across all maturities fell, with the 30-year bond futures down by 1.04% to 112.45 yuan, hitting a low of 112.24 yuan during the day [2][3]. - The 10-year bond futures decreased by 0.35% to 107.67 yuan, while the 5-year and 2-year bond futures fell by 0.24% and 0.05%, respectively [2][3]. - In the cash market, the yield on the 30-year bond rose by 1.9 basis points to 2.26%, and the 10-year bond yield increased by 1.3 basis points to 1.85% [4]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The overall weakness in the bond market since December is attributed to multiple factors, including domestic trading conditions, liquidity tightening, and changes in monetary policy expectations [5]. - The People's Bank of China conducted a 180.8 billion yuan reverse repo operation, leading to a net withdrawal of 175.6 billion yuan on December 4, which influenced market dynamics [5]. - Analysts noted that the decline in bond prices is partly due to market expectations regarding the scale of government bond transactions and the central bank's operations [5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - Market sentiment remains cautious, with expectations for year-end allocation trading dependent on the implementation of new public fund sales regulations [7]. - If public funds cannot participate in driving year-end allocations, the sentiment in the bond market may remain weak, with resistance to yield declines [7]. - Analysts suggest that the liquidity of ultra-long bonds may stabilize as year-end pressures on banks ease, potentially leading to a recovery in demand for long-duration bonds [7].

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market opened with most contracts declining, particularly in the chemical sector where rubber fell by 1.58% [1] - Non-metallic building materials experienced a complete decline, with glass down by 1.47% [1] - Shipping futures also saw a decline, with the shipping index (European line) dropping by 1.45% [1] - Most energy products decreased, with fuel oil down by 0.45% [1] - Precious metals showed an upward trend, with silver rising by 0.31% [1] Group 2: Palm Oil Market Insights - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures slightly decreased, following the trend of Dalian palm oil futures, with the benchmark February palm oil contract closing down by 3 ringgit, or 0.07%, at 4,156 ringgit per ton [14] - A recent survey indicated that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in November may rise to a six-and-a-half-year high due to declining exports and record production [14] - The Malaysian Federal Land Development Authority received orders to evacuate palm oil plantation lands, which may impact operations and national production [14] Group 3: Copper Market Developments - The main copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 1.74% to 90,760 yuan per ton [15] - The London Metal Exchange reported a significant increase in copper delivery applications, surging by 50,575 tons to 56,875 tons, marking the largest increase by tonnage since 2013 [15] - Ivanhoe Mines announced that the Kamoa-Kakula project aims for copper production targets of 380,000 to 420,000 tons in 2026 and 500,000 to 540,000 tons in 2027 [15] Group 4: Rebar Steel Market Outlook - Rebar prices are expected to show a strong fluctuation, with the RB2601 contract projected to rise to around 3,200 yuan [18] - The rebar market in December is relatively strong, supported by reduced production and inventory depletion, leading to shortages in some regions [18] - Despite seasonal demand weakness, construction activity in southern regions and rising winter storage expectations are expected to support rebar prices [18] Group 5: Logistics and Economic Indicators - The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation reported that the logistics industry prosperity index for November was 50.9%, a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous month [19] - The business volume index also rose to 50.9%, indicating a balanced recovery across regions, with central and western regions exceeding the national level [19] Group 6: Global Economic Context - The U.S. ADP employment report indicated a decrease of 32,000 jobs in November, the largest drop in two and a half years, further increasing expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [20] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is approaching 90% [20]

| 111 | 国内斯特 | | | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年12月04日 | | 黄金 | 女女女 | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 销 | 文文文 | | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜美国11月ADP就业减少3.2万人不及预期的增加1万人，为2023年3月以来最低水平，就业走弱继续得到验 证。12月降息概率接近90%已基本定价,贵金属震荡为主,白银突破后呈现高波动特点,黄金突破前高阻力 前贵金属整体不宜追高。今晚关注美国周度初请失业金人数。 ★克里姆林宫:说俄罗斯总统普京拒绝了美国关于乌克兰的方案是不正确的,这仅仅是一次初步的意见 ...

有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 期货研究报告 从业资格证号：F3035632 沪铜 昨夜沪铜高开高走，今日铜价维持强势运行，日内屡次站上 9.1 万关口，沪铜持仓量持续上升至 63 万手。宏观层面，降息预期持续 升温，利好有色。12 月降息概率已接近 90%，美元指数持续走弱。产 业层面，国内电解铜社库去化，下游接受度上升，伦铜和沪铜现货 升水均走强。技术层面，铜价增仓突破 9 万关口，短期上行动能较 强。 沪铝 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 4 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色普涨，沪铜站上 9 万关口 核心观点 今日铝价冲高回落，沪铝持仓量有所上升，主力期价 ...