国际金银市场迎来狂欢，价格大幅攀升并再创新高。COMEX黄金期货涨幅逾2%；COMEX白银期货涨 2.37%，报69.09美元/盎司。金银价格的强势上涨，吸引了众多投资者的目光，市场交易活跃度显著提 升。 市场最为关注的当属美联储的大消息。据金十报道，美国总统特朗普可能在明年1月第一周任命新的美 联储主席。现任美联储主席鲍威尔的四年任期将于明年5月届满，特朗普此前明确表示，希望选择一位 支持增长友好型货币政策的继任者。目前，除美联储理事沃勒和鲍曼外，白宫经济顾问哈塞特以及前美 联储理事沃什也被列为潜在候选人。这一消息引发了市场对美联储未来货币政策走向的广泛猜测和讨 论。 根据CME"美联储观察"数据，美联储明年1月降息25个基点的概率为19.9%，维持利率不变的概率为 80.1%。到明年3月，累计降息25个基点的概率为44.7%，维持利率不变的概率为47.1%，累计降息50个 基点的概率为8.2%。降息预期的变化，使得金融市场的不确定性增加，投资者在市场中的博弈也愈发 激烈。 美东时间周三（12月24日），全球金融市场风云变幻，隔夜美股全线拉升，黄金白银价格更是大幅上 扬，与此同时，美联储高层变动消息引发市场 ...

Core Insights - The prices of spot gold and silver surged to new historical highs driven by safe-haven demand and expectations of interest rate cuts [1] - The rise in precious metal prices has also led to an increase in gold mining stocks, with the iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF (RING) experiencing upward movement [1]

12月22日，国内多个贵金属期货品种价格再度集体暴涨，引起市场广泛关注。 多个贵金属期货品种大涨钯和铂期货再度涨停 12月22日，国内多个贵金属期货品种价格集体暴涨，部分品种的涨势有加速之势。 长江期货近日的研究观点还认为，美国经济数据趋势性走弱，市场对美国财政情况和美联储独立性存在担忧，央行购金和去美元化并未改变，工业需求拉 动下，白银现货维持紧张，黄金白银中期价格运行中枢上移。欧盟调整放宽原本将从2035年起有效禁止内燃机汽车的规则，预计铂钯价格将延续偏强震 荡。 另一贵金属——铂的期货价格也大涨。12月22日，广期所铂期货主力合约也以涨停价收盘，收盘涨幅达6.99%，报568.45元/克，创出广期所铂期货品种上 市以来新高。今年12月以来，广期所铂期货主力合约累计涨幅已高达30.86%。 贵金属价格暴涨之下多家上市企业回应 值得注意的是，在多种贵金属价格暴涨的大背景下，一些上市企业也回应了相关影响。 行情数据显示，当天广期所钯期货主力合约以涨停收盘，报508.45元/克，创出广期所钯期货品种上市以来新高，收盘涨幅达7%。今年12月以来，广期所 钯期货主力合约累计涨幅已高达36.22%。 在钯和铂的期货价 ...

在钯和铂的期货价格大涨之余，同样作为贵金属的金、银期货价格也进一步上行。12月22 日，上期所白银期货主力合约涨势加速，当天收盘大涨6.06%，报16210元/千克，盘中一度 触及16282元/千克，刷新历史新高；当天上期所黄金期货主力合约重新突破1000元/克，逼 近前期历史高点，收盘涨幅达2.10%。 对于贵金属价格走势，长江期货近日的研究观点认为，美国11月失业率超预期上升，降息预 期升温，贵金属价格延续偏强。具体来看，美联储12月议息会议如期降息25基点，并启动准 备金管理型扩表。特朗普对美联储独立性影响显现，美国就业形势放缓。美联储主席鲍威尔 表示，不断变化的经济风险让美联储有了更充分的降息理由，降息进程还将延续。 12 月 22 日，国内多个贵金属期货品种价格再度集体暴涨，引起市场广泛关注。 多个贵金属期货品种大涨 钯和铂期货再度涨停 12月22日，国内多个贵金属期货品种价格集体暴涨，部分品种的涨势有加速之势。 行情数据显示，当天广期所钯期货主力合约以涨停收盘，报508.45元/克，创出广期所钯期货 品种上市以来新高，收盘涨幅达7%。今年12月以来，广期所钯期货主力合约累计涨幅已高达 36.22% ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年12月22日16时34分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属高位上行，沪金主力收涨2.10%，沪银主力收涨6.06%，铂金主力收涨6.99%，钯金主力收涨涨7%。逻辑：①核心逻 辑，短期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险仍在；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期放缓。②避险属性方面，普京在年度 媒体活动中坚持俄方停战要求，称欧盟的"抢劫"失败了。中美经贸磋商成果共识公布。中东等地缘异动风险仍存。③货币属性方 面，美国11月核心CPI同比上涨2.6%，创下2021年初以来最慢增速，低于市场预期的3%。美国11月就业反弹超预期，失业率升至 四年高位。美联储12月在重重分歧中下调利率，暗示将暂停行动明年或仅降息一次。鲍威尔指出，美联储的利率政策已处于良好 位置，可以应对未来经济走势，但他拒绝就近期是否会再次降息提供指引。目前市场预期美联储26年1月不降息概率维持在80%附 近，下次降息或到4月。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏弱；④商品属性方面，白银受到供应偏紧支撑。铂金氢能产业铂基催化剂需 求预期强劲。钯金短期需求仍有韧性，长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant rise in international gold prices, reaching a peak of approximately $4,300 per ounce, driven by a weakening dollar and a surge in global risk-averse investments [1][3] - The macroeconomic fundamentals indicate that expectations of a shift in Federal Reserve policy are fueling the surge in gold prices, with recent U.S. inflation data showing unexpected slowdown and a cooling job market, leading to increased calls for monetary policy easing [1][3] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran and escalating U.S.-Venezuela tensions, are creating high uncertainty, prompting institutional investors to seek safe-haven assets like gold [1][3] Group 2 - Economic data shows that the University of Michigan's December consumer confidence index was unexpectedly revised down to 52.9, reflecting concerns about the economic outlook, which in turn strengthens market expectations for a looser monetary environment [2][4] - The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 21.0% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in January, despite hints from the Cleveland Fed President that policy may enter a pause [2][4] - Technical analysis reveals that gold's upward trend remains intact, with prices consistently above the 100-period exponential moving average (EMA), and the Bollinger Bands indicating increased market volatility driven by bullish sentiment [2][4]

Report Information - Report Title: Commodities Weekly Report - Report Date: December 22, 2025 - Author: Hu Jingyi from Guotou Futures - Investment Consulting Number: Z0019749 - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03090299 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The overall commodity market rose slightly by 0.09% last week, with the black sector leading the gain at 3.04%, while the agricultural product sector fell by 2.12%. The liquidity environment is generally favorable, and the commodity market may run stably in the short - term [2][6]. - The dovish interest rate hike in Japan supported the US dollar index, but after the release of US economic and inflation data last week, market expectations for interest rate cuts increased, and short - term US dollar liquidity may remain stable. In China, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment and social retail sales slowed down in November, and economic growth continued to slow down moderately [2]. - Different commodity sectors have different short - term trends. The precious metals sector may be volatile and bullish; the non - ferrous metals sector may run stably; the black sector may fluctuate; the energy sector may fluctuate; the chemical sector's rebound space may be limited; and the agricultural products (oilseeds) sector may fluctuate [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Overall Market Performance**: The overall commodity market rose slightly by 0.09% last week. The black, precious metals, energy - chemical, and non - ferrous sectors rose by 3.04%, 1.9%, 0.91%, and 0.79% respectively, while the agricultural product sector fell by 2.12% [2][6]. - **Top - Gaining and Top - Losing Varieties**: The top - gaining varieties were coking coal (9%), coke (8.31%), and PTA (4.45%); the top - losing varieties were rapeseed oil (- 6.45%), soybean oil (- 3.53%), and apples (- 3.36%) [2][6]. - **Volatility**: The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market continued to rise, with only the agricultural product and precious metals sectors showing mainly declining volatility [2][6]. - **Fund Flow**: The overall market scale decreased slightly last week, and the non - ferrous, energy - chemical, and black sectors all had net capital outflows [2][6]. 3.2 Outlook for Different Sectors - **Precious Metals**: US economic data last week showed an economic cooling trend, and the November CPI data decline exceeded expectations. The core CPI reached a new low since March 2021. Fed Chair candidates Hasset and Waller believe there is still room for interest rate cuts. The sector may be volatile and bullish in the short - term [2]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: Overseas economic data is weak, interest rate cut expectations are rising, and the US dollar index is under pressure, with the macro environment generally positive. The inventory continued to decline last week, but the decline rate narrowed, and the spot premium was mainly weakening. However, there is still a risk of smelting contraction. The sector may run stably in the short - term [3]. - **Black Sector**: The apparent demand for rebar improved last week, production increased slightly, and inventory continued to decline. Steel mills' profitability is poor, and due to environmental protection factors, the decline in hot metal production is still large, but steel mill profits are showing marginal improvement, and the production - cut trend may slow down. For raw materials, the global shipment of iron ore increased month - on - month and was stronger than the same period last year, and the domestic arrival volume rebounded; the total coking coal inventory increased slightly. After the oversold rebound, the market sentiment has become cautious, and the sector may fluctuate in the short - term [3]. - **Energy Sector**: The Berlin negotiation between the US and Ukraine last week was very positive, leading to market concerns that an agreement may increase the supply pressure of Russian oil. EIA data showed that although crude oil inventory decreased, gasoline and distillate oil inventories increased unexpectedly. The supply - loose pattern always puts pressure on oil prices. However, the escalation of the US - Venezuela situation and the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical issue may bring phased risk premiums. Oil prices may fluctuate in the short - term [3]. - **Chemical Sector**: For polyester varieties, the expectation of tight supply led to a significant increase in PX positions and price. Stimulated by raw material price increases, downstream buyers replenished inventory at low prices, and polyester filament inventory decreased. The short - term polyester start - up rate will be maintained, but it is expected to decline later due to mid - line inventory accumulation and the Spring Festival factor. The short - term cost support is strong, but the rebound space may be limited under the background of a downward demand period [4]. - **Agricultural Products Sector**: Recently, the weather in South America has continued to improve, and the probability of La Nina turning into ENSO neutral in the first quarter of next year is 68%. The trading logic has returned to concerns about US soybean exports and expectations of a bumper harvest in South America. The US soybean futures price has fallen back to the previous bottom range, and soybean meal may follow the adjustment in the short - term. The global rapeseed supply - demand pattern is loose, and the weak rapeseed oil has also led to the weakening of soybean and palm oil. The Malaysian palm oil market still faces high inventory pressure. Although the production decreased month - on - month in November, the decline was small, and the demand was even worse. The oilseeds sector may fluctuate in the short - term [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs generally had positive returns, with the total return of gold ETFs at 0.07%. The returns of individual gold ETFs such as Qianhai Kaiyuan Gold ETF and Tianhong Shanghai Gold ETF were 1.16% and 0.98% respectively [38]. - The energy - chemical ETF (Jianxin Yisheng Zhengshang Energy Chemical Futures ETF) had a return of 2.71% [38]. - The soybean meal ETF (Huaxia Feed Soybean Meal Futures ETF) had a return of - 1.32% [38]. - The non - ferrous ETF (Dacheng Non - Ferrous Metals Futures ETF) had a return of - 0.66% [38]. - The silver fund (Guotou Ruixin Silver Futures (LOF)) had a return of 3.47% [38]. - The total return of commodity ETFs was 0.24% [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information on the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Today, the platinum and palladium futures main contracts both hit the daily limit. Persistent physical spot shortages and cross - regional arbitrage trading have significantly increased the price elasticity of platinum and palladium recently. The London platinum lease rate continues to rise, and palladium ETF holdings continue to increase, exacerbating the supply - demand contradiction. High domestic - foreign price differentials have spurred arbitrage motives, pushing up spot prices and amplifying futures price elasticity. In the medium to long term, platinum prices may be supported by the Fed's easing expectations, the continuation of the supply - demand structural deficit pattern, and the expansion of long - term demand expectations in the hydrogen economy. Palladium's demand is expected to weaken due to over - concentration in the automotive catalyst field and the continuous popularization of new energy vehicles. The palladium market is shifting from a supply shortage to a surplus, but the bullish sentiment driven by interest - rate cut expectations may support prices. The parabolic rise in platinum and palladium prices may lead to a short - term correction risk due to basis repair needs. The weekly resistance and support levels for London platinum spot are $2100/ounce and $1800/ounce respectively, and for London palladium spot are $1800/ounce and $1500/ounce respectively [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract is 568.45 yuan/gram, up 37.15 yuan; the closing price of the palladium main contract is 508.45 yuan/gram, up 33.25 yuan. The platinum main contract's open interest is 10387 hands, down 277 hands; the palladium main contract's open interest is 3179 hands, up 90 hands [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum spot price (Pt9995) is 533.57 yuan/gram, up 21.92 yuan; the Yangtze River palladium spot price is 429 yuan/gram, unchanged. The platinum main contract's basis is - 34.88 yuan/gram, down 15.23 yuan; the palladium main contract's basis is - 79.45 yuan/gram, down 33.25 yuan. The weekly non - commercial long positions of platinum in CFTC are 9966 contracts, down 243 contracts; those of palladium are 3003 contracts, down 342 contracts [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The total annual supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.4 tons, down 0.8 tons; the total annual supply of palladium in 2025 is expected to be 293 tons, down 5 tons. The total annual demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.6 tons, up 25.6 tons; the total annual demand for palladium in 2025 is expected to be 287 tons, down 27 tons [2]. 3.4 Macro Data - The US dollar index is 98.72, up 0.28; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.92%, up 0.04%. The VIX volatility index is 14.91, down 1.96 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - US White House National Economic Council Director Hasset agrees with Goolsbee that there is still sufficient room for interest - rate cuts. Trump hopes the Fed Chairman can make an independent judgment, and Trump's aides will discuss housing policies in Florida and are expected to announce a "major" housing plan soon. Fed's Harker prefers to keep interest rates stable before spring, suggests the neutral rate is higher than commonly thought, and opposes near - term interest - rate cuts due to concerns about high inflation. New York Fed President Williams says there is no urgency to cut interest rates again, strengthening the market's expectation of a short - term pause in rate cuts. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in January next year is 21%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 79%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 47.1%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 43.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 9.5% [2]. 3.6 Key Points to Watch - On December 22 at 23:00, the US PCE price index month - on - month; on December 23 at 21:30, the US GDP deflator quarter - on - quarter; on December 24 at 21:30, the US initial jobless claims [2].

核心要点： 市场对美联储2026年降息的预期持续为金价提供支撑，假期临近放大不确定性；日本央行决议"不够鹰派"引发日元大幅抛售；AI乐观 情绪推动美股科技股延续反弹。 隔夜市场总览 上周五，市场在假期前交投中消化了多重线索。降息预期和地缘不确定性共同支撑黄金与白银（再创历史新高）。日元在日本央行加息后因前瞻 指引模糊而重挫。美股在AI龙头（美光、英伟达）强劲表现的带动下继续收高，抵消了部分消费股的疲软。 市场分项解读 金市-在降息与避险情绪中稳健 行情：现货黄金上涨0.4%，收于 4347.07美元/盎司，全周上涨1.1%。现货白银飙升2.6%，再创 67.43美元/盎司 的历史新高，全年涨幅已达132%。 动因：1) 政策预期：美国疲软通胀与就业数据巩固了2026年至少降息两次的预期。2) 假期风险：圣诞与新年假期临近，市场流动性下降，地缘不 确定性增加，提振避险需求。 ⬛ 油市-地缘事件提供短期扰动 行情：美原油上涨0.9%，收于 56.66美元/桶，但全周仍累跌约1%。 动因：美国拦截委内瑞拉油轮并实施新制裁，引发供应中断担忧，推升油价。然而，下游需求疲软（汽油期货跌至四年低点）和宏观供应过剩的 担忧限 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a weekly report on the copper market dated December 22, 2025 [1] - The report is titled "Copper: The Game between 'Strong Expectations' and 'Weak Reality'" [2] - The author is Cao Baoqin with investment consulting qualification number Z0012851 and email caobaoqin@nzfco.com [2] Group 2: Market Review and Outlook - Last week, the Shanghai copper market maintained a high - level volatile pattern. On Friday, stimulated by the unexpectedly low US inflation data, the expectation of interest rate cuts rose again, and the copper price rebounded [2] - At the industrial level, the situation is mixed. The supply of copper ore is extremely tight, and the long - term processing fee for copper concentrate in 2026 is set at $0/ton, entering the "zero - processing - fee era". High copper prices significantly suppress downstream demand, domestic social inventory accumulates, the spot of electrolytic copper turns to a discount, and the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises generally declines [2] - There is a rigid supply constraint due to ore shortage and a loose global liquidity macro - tone, providing strong bottom support for copper prices. However, it is currently the traditional consumption off - season, and high copper prices suppress downstream purchasing willingness, putting pressure on copper prices. In the short term, copper prices will maintain a high - level volatile pattern [2] - This week, the US Q3 GDP data and Q3 core PCE price index will be released. If the data is significantly weaker than expected, it will boost the expectation of interest rate cuts and bring new upward driving force to copper prices [2] Group 3: Factors to Watch - The factors to watch are the US Q3 GDP and PCE price index, and the changes in downstream demand [3] Group 4: Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Indicator | Unit | This Week | Last Week | Change | Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Electrolytic copper price (≥99.95%): Shanghai | Yuan/ton | 92315 | 93500 | - 1185 | - 1.27% | Weekly | | Electrolytic copper premium/discount (≥99.95%): Shanghai | Yuan/ton | - 155 | - 15 | - 140 | - 933.33% | Weekly | | SHFE: Electrolytic copper: Basis | Yuan/ton | - 940 | - 580 | - 360 | - 62.07% | Weekly | | Oxygen - free copper rod price | Yuan/ton | 93410 | 94740 | - 1330 | - 1.40% | Weekly | | LME copper inventory | Ton | 160400 | 165900 | - 5500 | - 3.32% | Weekly | | SHFE copper inventory | Ton | 95805 | 89389 | 6416 | 7.18% | Weekly | [3] Group 5: Report Structure and Data Sources - The report includes sections on futures market review, supply situation analysis, demand situation analysis, and inventory situation analysis [5][11][14][20] - Data sources include Boyi Master, iFinD, Steel Union Terminal, and Ningzheng Futures [8][9][10]