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【早间看点】SPPOMA马棕6月前10日产量减少17.24%美豆当周出口销售料净增10-70万吨-20250612
Guo Fu Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 05:43
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 17.24% from June 1 - 10, 2025, while Indonesia is expected to increase palm oil exports to 25 million tons in 2025. The price of Malaysian palm oil is expected to be supported but may still face pressure during the seasonal production - increasing season. Short - term palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate [6][7][20]. - The USDA's 5 - month supply - demand report for soybeans has a positive impact. The ending stocks of US soybeans in the 24/25 and 25/26 seasons are lower than expected, which is favorable for the soybean market [21]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight Quotes - Overnight quotes for commodities such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, US crude oil, US soybeans, etc., are presented, along with their price changes and exchange rate information for multiple currencies [1]. 02 Spot Quotes - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes for DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal are provided, along with import soybean quotes from different regions [2]. 03 Important Fundamental Information - **Weather Outlook for US Soybean - Producing States**: From June 15 - 19, rainfall in US soybean - producing states is expected to be above normal, and temperatures will be higher than the median. The Midwest will experience a wet pattern, with different rainfall and temperature conditions in the east and west. This weather is expected to affect crop growth [3][5]. - **Palm Oil Production Data**: From June 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 17.24%, with a 16.71% decrease in yield and a 0.10% decrease in oil extraction rate [6]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil Exports**: Indonesia is expected to increase palm oil exports to 25 million tons in 2025, with production recovering after a temporary decline at the beginning of the year [7]. - **USDA Export Sales Report Forecast**: As of the week ending June 5, US soybean export sales are expected to increase by 10 - 700,000 tons, with different expectations for the 24/25 and 25/26 seasons [7]. - **Argentine Soybean Sales**: As of the week ending June 4, Argentine farmers sold a total of 1.8811 million tons of soybeans, with cumulative sales reaching 60.2493 million tons [8]. - **EU and UK Rapeseed Production**: The 2025/26 rapeseed production forecast for the EU 27 and the UK remains at 20.4 million tons, but there is still a drought risk in Poland [8]. - **Russian Oilseed Exports**: In the first 5 months of this year, Russian oilseed exports decreased by 22% year - on - year to 1.071 million tons, with different changes in the exports of various oilseeds [9]. - **Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index**: The index rose to a nearly 7 - month high, with increases in the freight rates of various types of ships [9]. 04 Macroeconomic News - **International News**: The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 97.6%. US CPI data for May was lower than expected, and market expectations for Fed rate cuts have changed. There are also data on US Treasury auctions, mortgage applications, and EIA inventory [15][16]. - **Domestic News**: On June 11, the US dollar/yuan exchange rate was adjusted downwards. The central bank conducted 164 billion yuan in 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 5.09 billion yuan. In May, the trading volume and turnover of the domestic futures market decreased year - on - year [18][19]. 05 Key Information Analysis - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: In May, Malaysian palm oil ending stocks increased by 6.65% to 1.99 million tons. Production, exports, and imports increased, while consumption decreased. The price is expected to be supported but may face pressure during the seasonal production - increasing season [20]. - **US Soybeans**: The USDA's 5 - month supply - demand report for soybeans shows that the ending stocks of US soybeans in the 24/25 and 25/26 seasons are lower than expected, which is positive for the market [21]. 06 Fund Flows - On June 11, 2025, the futures market had a net inflow of 3.484 billion yuan, with 2.151 billion yuan in commodity futures (including inflows in agricultural products, chemicals, black series, and metals) and 1.333 billion yuan in stock index futures. The report also lists the fund flows of various futures varieties [23][24].
农产品日报:现货购销良好,豆粕维持震荡-20250612
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 05:14
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the soybean meal and corn industries is cautiously bearish [3][6] 2. Report's Core View - For the soybean meal industry, with a large influx of Brazilian soybeans, domestic oil - mill operating rates have risen rapidly, and soybean meal inventory has increased from a low level. The overall supply of soybeans remains abundant, and future prices will be affected by factors such as Brazilian price premiums, US soybean planting area weather, and policy changes [2] - For the corn industry, on the domestic supply side, the end of grassroots surplus grain and the need to make room for wheat storage have increased supply during the wheat harvest. The demand side shows low operating rates in deep - processing enterprises and feed enterprises mainly fulfilling previous orders. Attention should be paid to the listing and substitution of new - season wheat [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal 3.1.1 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 3047 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (+0.53%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2638 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton (+0.34%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 2960 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2850 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2850 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2560 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1] - Market News: The Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industry Association maintained its forecasts for Brazil's 2025 soybean production, exports, and processing but lowered the average export prices of soybeans and soybean oil. The 2025 Brazilian soybean export average price was expected to be 405 US dollars/ton, 10 US dollars/ton lower than the previous month's forecast; the soybean oil export average price was expected to be 1015 US dollars/ton, 35 US dollars/ton lower [1] 3.1.2 Market Analysis - With the large arrival of Brazilian soybeans, domestic oil - mill operating rates have increased rapidly, and soybean meal inventory has risen from a low level. The overall supply of soybeans remains abundant, and future prices will be affected by Brazilian price premiums, US soybean planting area weather, and policy changes [2] 3.1.3 Strategy - The strategy for the soybean meal industry is cautiously bearish [3] 3.2 Corn 3.2.1 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2507 contract was 2374 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.21%); the corn starch 2507 contract was 2709 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (-0.07%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2700 yuan/ton [3] - Market News: As of the week ending June 5, the US wheat export inspection volume was 291,000 tons, a 47% week - on - week and 18% year - on - year decrease. The USDA predicted that the 2025/26 US wheat export target was 2.177 million tons [3] 3.2.2 Market Analysis - On the domestic supply side, the end of grassroots surplus grain and the need to make room for wheat storage have increased supply during the wheat harvest. The demand side shows low operating rates in deep - processing enterprises and feed enterprises mainly fulfilling previous orders. Attention should be paid to the listing and substitution of new - season wheat [4][5] 3.2.3 Strategy - The strategy for the corn industry is cautiously bearish [6]
《农产品》日报-20250612
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 01:10
油脂产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月12日 干泽辉 Z0019938 | 原 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 6月11日 | 6月10日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 | 江苏一级 | 8080 | 8140 | -60 | -0.74% | | 期价 | Y2509 | 7390 | 7434 | -44 | -0.59% | | 泉差 | Y2509 | ୧୦୦ | 706 | -16 | -2.27% | | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏6月 | 09+270 | 09+270 | 0 | | | 仓单 | | 17652 | 17652 | 0 | 0.00% | 棕榈油 | | | 6月11日 | 6月10日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现价 | 广东24度 | 8450 | 8600 | -150 | -1.74% | | 期价 | P2509 | 7898 | 7998 | -100 | -1 ...
五矿期货农产品早报-20250612
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 00:59
农产品早报 2025-06-12 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号:F0273729 交易咨询号:Z0002942 邮箱:wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号:F03116327 交易咨询号:Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号:F03114441 交易咨询号:Z0022498 电话:028-86133280 邮箱:sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 周三美豆下跌,贸易缓和情绪消退,市场交易美豆产区天气较好三限制涨幅。周三国内豆粕现货跟涨期 货,华东低价报 2850 元/吨,国内豆粕成交昨日放量,远月成交较多,开机率较高,提货较好,下游仍 在补库。后续大豆、豆粕库存预计仍然维持累库趋势,不过由于前期开机延迟等,油厂库存压力相对后 移。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周降雨偏好,覆盖大部分产区。巴西升贴水涨跌互现,或因销售进度偏慢,但雷亚尔升 值提供支撑。25/26 年度美豆面积下降,单产的扰动使得总产量容易下调,美豆如果没有宏观走弱的驱 动,新年度可能是震荡筑底的过程。不过走出底部区间仍然需要产量、生物柴油需求、全球宏观、贸易 ...
棕榈油、白糖大跌
Tian Fu Qi Huo· 2025-06-11 13:27
棕榈油、白糖大跌 一、农产品板块综述 棕榈油大跌,因马来西亚棕榈油产量大增至历史同期高位,供应 增大压力令棕油下挫,国内棕油库存上升,需求偏弱,连棕油大幅下 跌,后市科有续跌空间。白糖亦加速下跌,受到外盘原糖大跌的拖累, 因巴西自糖压榨进度加快,产量增大,同时亚洲糖主产国产量前景较 好,压制外盘大跌,带动郑糖扩大跌幅,弱势料持续。玉米冲高回落, 期价在连续上涨至高位后,多头获利回吐令期价高位调整,但涨势尚 未改变,后市料高位波动。豆粕持续震荡上行,因进口大豆成本上升, 油厂压榨利润下滑后挺价豆粕,豆粕偏强波动。 二、品种策略跟踪 (一) 棕櫚油: 大幅下跌 焦点关注:棕榈油主力 2509 合约大幅下跌,受到产地增产增大 压力: 1.马来西亚棕榈油总署 MPOB 发布的月度供需报告显示,马来西 亚 5 月棕油产量增长 5.05%至 177 万吨,处于历史同期接近最高位, 季节性增产效应明显。马棕榈油 5 月库存亦增 6.65%至 199 万吨,为 去年 9 月以来最高位,出口则大幅增加 25.6%至 139 万吨,同时进口 也有较大增幅,产量和进口激增抵消了出口的增长。棕榈油后续月份 产量预计逐月增加,给棕榈油 ...
光大期货农产品日报-20250611
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-11 05:12
农产品日报(2025 年 6 月 11 日) 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二,玉米继续减仓上行,近月期价跟随现货上涨,近月领涨、远期合约跟涨, 坚挺,低价出货意向稍显一般。东北深加工主流收购价格与产区基本顺价,对行 上调 10-20 元/吨。前期到货的东北粮源陆续消化完毕,华北本地小麦开始收割 上市,贸易商主要开始小麦的收割。周末河南地区启动小麦最低保护价收购政策。 | 震荡 | | | 长阳线打破近期慢涨模式。现货市场方面,东北产区余粮有限,贸易商心态较为 | | | | 情也暂无明显不利影响。周末华北地区玉米价格整体偏强运行,深加工企业普遍 | | | 玉米 | 周末销区市场玉米价格继续稳定运行。港口贸易商报价暂无较大变化,新季小麦 | | | | 继续上市,各企业关注小麦价格较多,小麦与玉米到部分饲料厂基本同价,小麦 | | | | 替代优势较大。技术上,玉米近月合约空头主力减仓离场,期价快速拉升,现货 | | | | 强势对期货的提振体现出来,近月率先领涨,近远月价差拉大。其后,远月跟随 | | | | 近月上行,在玉米和淀粉的对比 ...
农产品日报:苹果套袋进入中后期,红枣长势较为正常-20250611
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-11 03:41
农产品日报 | 2025-06-11 苹果套袋进入中后期,红枣长势较为正常 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面,昨日收盘苹果2510合约7523元/吨,较前一日变动+37元/吨,幅度+0.49%。现货方面,山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格4.10元/斤,较前一日变动+0.00元/斤,现货基差AP10+677,较前一日变动-37;陕西洛川70# 以上 半商品晚富士价格4.80元/斤,较前一日变动+0.00元/斤,现货基差AP10+2077,较前一日变动-37。 近期市场资讯,苹果市场整体成交清淡,产区新季苹果套袋工作继续,库内货源交易氛围一般,产地包装发货不 快,客商多自行发货为主。西部产区客商货源找货热度不高,个别冷库货源出现水烂点等质量问题,持货商整体 惜售情绪减弱;山东产区大果及好果走货一般,部分乡镇价格小幅松动。销区市场市场走货一般,天气转热,瓜 类水果存在一定冲击。陕西洛川产区目前库内70#起步果农统货4.2-4.5元/斤,70#起步半商品4.5-5.0元/斤,以质论 价。 山东栖霞产区果农三级2.5-3元/斤,果农80#以上统货3-3.5元/斤,80#一二级条纹4.0-4.5元/斤,80#一二 ...
《农产品》日报-20250611
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-11 02:08
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oil and Fat Industry - The overall trend of the oil and fat market is complex. The prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil have shown different degrees of changes. The basis of palm oil has increased significantly, and the import profit of palm oil has also improved. The market is affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, import costs, and cross - period spreads [1]. Corn Industry - In the short term, the corn market is supported by supply tightening and the wheat purchase policy, and the futures market is running strongly. In the long term, the supply is tight, imports and substitutes are decreasing, and the breeding consumption is increasing, which supports the upward movement of corn prices. However, the downstream deep - processing industry is in a continuous loss state, which restricts the replenishment enthusiasm [4]. Sugar Industry - The global sugar supply is tending to be loose, which puts pressure on raw sugar. The domestic sugar market follows the foreign market to weaken, but the high sales rate and low inventory in the domestic market support the price. Considering the future pressure of imported sugar arrival, the sugar price is expected to maintain a volatile and weak pattern [7]. Meal Industry - The Sino - US economic and trade talks have increased the support for US soybeans, but the overall planting progress of new crops is relatively fast, and there is still uncertainty about whether the expected reduction in production can be realized. The domestic soybean arrival volume, inventory, and soybean meal inventory are increasing rapidly, and the basis is continuously weak. However, the increase in US soybeans and the rebound in Brazilian premiums support the domestic soybean meal trend. It is expected that the soybean meal will continue to be volatile and strong, but investors should be cautious about chasing up [9]. Pig Industry - The spot price of live pigs maintains a volatile structure. The supply - demand situation has not improved significantly, and the demand is still weak due to the hot weather. Although there is still a certain profit in the breeding industry, the market capacity expansion is cautious, and the upward driving force is not strong. It is expected that the market will maintain a volatile structure [11]. Cotton Industry - The downstream of the cotton industry is weak, with the finished product inventory gradually rising and the start - up rate stable but decreasing. The cotton spot is better than the downstream, and there are still concerns about the tight inventory in the near - term spot period. However, the new cotton supply is expected to be good, and the output is expected to increase steadily. The Zhengzhou cotton futures still face some pressure, and the domestic cotton price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [13]. Egg Industry - In June, the inventory of laying hens will reach the highest level in the past five years, increasing the egg supply pressure. The super - strong plum rain season this year further weakens the off - season demand. The contradiction between supply and demand in the egg market is expected to reach a peak in the past five years, and the egg price is expected to have weak rebound or continue to decline [14]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Oil and Fat Industry - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 8140 yuan/ton, the futures price of Y2509 decreased by 2 yuan to 7434 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 2 yuan to 706 yuan/ton [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong remained at 8600 yuan/ton, the futures price of P2509 decreased by 38 yuan to 7998 yuan/ton, the basis increased by 38 yuan to 602 yuan/ton, the import cost decreased by 73.7 yuan to 8568.4 yuan/ton, and the import profit increased by 36 yuan to - 570 yuan [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 30 yuan to 9400 yuan/ton, the futures price of O1509 decreased by 8 yuan to 8932 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 38 yuan to 468 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean oil cross - period spread (09 - 01) decreased by 6 yuan to 60 yuan, the palm oil cross - period spread (09 - 01) decreased by 18 yuan to 36 yuan, and the rapeseed oil cross - period spread (09 - 01) increased by 1 yuan to 142 yuan [1]. Corn Industry - **Corn**: The futures price of corn 2507 increased by 22 yuan to 2379 yuan/ton, the basis increased by 8 yuan to 1, the 7 - 9 spread increased by 3 yuan to - 25 yuan, the import profit increased by 22 yuan to 524 yuan, and the position increased by 14834 lots to 1901515 lots [4]. - **Corn Starch**: The futures price of corn starch 2507 increased by 24 yuan to 2711 yuan/ton, the basis increased by 6 yuan to 9, the 7 - 9 spread increased by 7 yuan to - 64 yuan, and the spread between starch and corn increased by 2 yuan to 332 yuan [4]. Sugar Industry - **Futures Market**: The futures price of sugar 2601 decreased by 10 yuan to 5580 yuan/ton, the futures price of sugar 2509 decreased by 17 yuan to 5734 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 9 spread increased by 7 yuan to - 137 yuan [7]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged, the basis in Nanning increased by 17 yuan to 363 yuan, and the basis in Kunming increased by 17 yuan to 183 yuan [7]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative sugar production in the country increased by 11.63% to 1110.72 million tons, the cumulative sales volume increased by 26.07% to 574.65 million tons, and the industrial inventory decreased by 8.20% to 420.74 million tons [7]. Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 20 yuan to 2880 yuan/ton, the futures price of M2509 increased by 12 yuan to 3031 yuan/ton, the basis decreased by 32 yuan to - 151 yuan, and the cross - period spread (09 - 01) increased by 4 yuan to - 37 yuan [9]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 2530 yuan/ton, the futures price of RM2509 increased by 15 yuan to 2629 yuan/ton, the basis decreased by 15 yuan to - 99 yuan, and the cross - period spread (09 - 01) increased by 10 yuan to 273 yuan [9]. - **Soybean**: The spot price of domestic soybeans in Harbin remained unchanged at 3960 yuan/ton, the futures price of the main soybean contract increased by 61 yuan to 4199 yuan/ton, the basis decreased by 61 yuan to - 239 yuan; the spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3640 yuan/ton, the futures price of the main soybean contract increased by 10 yuan to 3640 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 10 yuan to 0 [9]. Pig Industry - **Futures Market**: The futures price of the main live pig contract increased by 50 yuan to 455 yuan/ton, the futures price of live pig 2507 increased by 155 yuan to 13225 yuan/ton, the futures price of live pig 2509 increased by 120 yuan to 13595 yuan/ton, and the 7 - 9 spread decreased by 35 yuan to 370 yuan [11]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in various regions such as Henan, Shandong, and Sichuan increased to varying degrees, the daily slaughter volume decreased by 1388 heads to 141441 heads, the self - breeding profit decreased by 1.8 yuan to 34 yuan/head, and the purchased - pig breeding profit decreased by 36.4 yuan to - 121 yuan/head [11]. Cotton Industry - **Futures Market**: The futures price of cotton 2509 increased by 25 yuan to 13520 yuan/ton, the futures price of cotton 2601 increased by 5 yuan to 13490 yuan/ton, the 9 - 1 spread increased by 20 yuan to 30 yuan, and the position increased by 96 lots to 538557 lots [13]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of Xinjiang 3128B increased by 159 yuan to 14644 yuan/ton, the CC Index 3128B increased by 123 yuan to 14743 yuan/ton, and the basis between 3128B and the 01 contract increased by 134 yuan to 1124 yuan [13]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory decreased by 31.86 million tons to 383.40 million tons, the industrial inventory decreased by 2.52 million tons to 92.90 million tons, and the cotton outbound shipment volume increased by 9.86 million tons to 53.46 million tons [13]. Egg Industry - **Futures Market**: The futures price of egg 09 contract decreased by 19 yuan to 3655 yuan/500KG, the futures price of egg 07 contract decreased by 4 yuan to 2837 yuan/500KG, and the 9 - 7 spread decreased by 15 yuan to 837 yuan/500KG [14]. - **Spot Market**: The egg production area price decreased by 0.01 yuan to 2.77 yuan/jin, the egg - feed ratio decreased by 0.06 to 2.33, and the breeding profit decreased by 3.59 yuan to - 27.88 yuan/feather [14].
豆粕走高、棕油下挫
Tian Fu Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 12:13
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The report focuses on the performance and outlook of various agricultural products in the market. It analyzes factors such as supply - demand dynamics, policy impacts, and technical indicators to provide trading strategies for different agricultural product futures contracts [1][2][4]. 3) Summary by Variety (a) Soybean Meal - The price of soybean meal futures is on an upward trend. The first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism boosts market sentiment, and the high - opening rate of domestic oil mills increases supply, but inventory is still lower than last year. The technical indicators are strong. The strategy is to hold a light long position for the 2509 contract, with support at 3000 and resistance at 3050 [1][2]. (b) Corn - Corn prices are rising strongly. The implementation of the minimum purchase price policy for wheat in Henan Province on June 6th supports wheat prices and boosts corn prices. Coupled with tight supply and falling port inventories, the technical indicators are strong. The strategy is to hold a light long position for the 2507 contract, with support at 2350 and resistance at 2400 [1][4]. (c) Cotton - Cotton prices are continuously rising. The first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism improves market sentiment, and domestic cotton commercial inventory is decreasing. Although the raw material replenishment of small and medium - sized cotton spinning enterprises is weak, the technical indicators are strong. The strategy is to hold a light long position for the 2509 contract, with support at 13450 and resistance at 13600 [6]. (d) Palm Oil - Palm oil prices are falling. Malaysia's May palm oil production and inventory increased, and the total domestic oil inventory also rose significantly. The technical indicators are weak. The strategy is to hold a light short position for the 2509 contract, with support at 8078 and resistance at 8200 [8]. (e) Soybean Oil - Soybean oil prices are in a downward adjustment. Due to a large number of imported soybeans arriving at ports and high oil - mill opening rates, soybean oil supply is increasing. The strategy is for short - term trading for the 2509 contract, with support at 7724 and resistance at 7790 [10]. (f) Sugar - Sugar prices are oscillating downward. Favorable weather in major sugar - producing countries and expected increases in domestic sugar production and imports limit the rebound space. The technical indicators are weak. The strategy is to hold a light short position for the 2509 contract, with support at 5688 and resistance at 5732 [13]. (g) Live Pigs - Live pig prices are rebounding. The central government's plan to purchase 10,000 tons of frozen pork for storage boosts market sentiment. The strategy is to close short positions and consider a light long position if the 20 - day moving average resistance is broken for the 2509 contract, with support at 13500 and resistance at 13620 [14]. (h) Eggs - Egg prices first decline and then rise, but the downward trend remains. High egg - laying hen inventory, slow capacity reduction, weak post - festival demand, and high storage difficulties during the rainy and hot season put pressure on prices. The technical indicators are weak. The strategy is to hold a light short position for the 2507 contract, with support at 2810 and resistance at 2856 [17]. (i) Apples - Apple prices are in narrow - range oscillation after a sharp decline. The peak season of fruit listing reduces apple demand, and although inventory is low, the slow de - stocking and quality decline due to rising temperatures pull down prices. The technical indicators are weak. The strategy is to hold a light short position on rallies for the 2510 contract, with support at 7480 and resistance at 7600 [19]. (j) Peanuts - Peanut prices are oscillating downward. The weakening of the oil market affects peanut prices, along with limited supply from the grassroots level, low downstream consumption, and cautious purchasing by traders. The technical indicators are weak. The strategy is to hold a light short position for the 2510 contract, with support at 8282 and resistance at 8354 [21].
光大期货农产品日报(2025 年6月10日)-20250610
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 05:17
请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 | | 虽然期货盘面价格上涨,但大豆盘面榨利差,油厂进口积极性低。期货的强势与 进口成本走高,远期供应担忧有关。操作上,豆粕 91、15 正套持有,单边多头 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 思路。 | | | | 周一,BMD 棕榈油震荡运行,市场等待 MPOB 报告指引。之前一项调查显示, 尽管出口需求旺盛,但受到产量温和复苏推动,马来西亚 5 月棕榈油库存预计攀 升至 201 万吨,环比上涨 7.74%。其中产量环比增长 3%至 174 万吨。原油价格偏 | | | 油脂 | 强运行,因地缘紧张加剧和美国经济数据好于预期。国内方面,油脂期价偏强运 | 震荡 | | | 行。棕榈油和豆油的涨幅超过菜籽油,蛋白粕走势强于油脂。库存方面,油脂库 | | | | 存稳中增加,大豆压榨量增加是主要原因,其次是油脂需求平淡,国内供应宽松 | | | | 预期持续。操作上,短线参与,豆油和棕榈油买 9 卖 1。 | | | | 周一,鸡蛋期货下跌,主力 2507 合约下跌后低位震荡,尾盘小幅回收,日收跌 | | | | ...