Report on the Cotton Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View Short - term domestic cotton prices may fluctuate in a moderately strong range, while they will face pressure after the new cotton is listed in the long - term [1]. 3. Summary by Category Futures Market - Cotton 2509 price is 14,270 yuan/ton, up 0.14%; Cotton 2601 is 13,965 yuan/ton, up 0.04%; ICE US cotton main contract is 68.76 cents/pound, down 0.12% [1]. - Cotton 9 - 1 spread is 305 yuan/ton, up 5.17%; Main contract open interest is 580,773, down 1.16%; Warehouse receipts are 9,532, down 0.55%; Valid forecasts remain unchanged at 223 [1]. Spot Market - Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton is 15,424 yuan/ton, up 0.71%; CC Index: 3128B is 15,508 yuan/ton, up 1.00%; FC Index: M: 1% is 13,815 yuan/ton, up 0.25% [1]. - 3128B - 01 contract spread is 1,154 yuan/ton, up 8.26%; 3128B - 05 contract spread is 1,459 yuan/ton, up 7.60%; CC Index: 3128B - FC Index: M: 1% spread is 1,693 yuan/ton, up 7.56% [1]. Industry Situation - Northern inventory is 282.98 tons, down 9.5%; Industrial inventory is 90.30 tons, down 2.9%; Import volume is 3.00 tons, down 25.0%; Bonded area inventory is 33.60 tons, down 8.9% [1]. - Textile industry inventory year - on - year is 1.90, down 48.6%; Yarn inventory days are 27.23 days, up 14.1%; Grey cloth inventory days are 36.61 days, up 3.2%; Cotton outbound shipping volume is 53.46 tons, up 22.6% [1]. - Spinning enterprise C32s immediate processing profit is - 2,318.80 yuan/ton, down 5.9%; Retail sales of clothing, footwear, hats and knitted textiles are 127.54 billion yuan, up 4.1% [1]. - Exports of textile yarns, fabrics and products are 12.048 billion US dollars, down 4.6%; Exports of clothing and clothing accessories are 15.267 billion US dollars, up 12.4% [1]. Report on the Sugar Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View In the short - term, the bottom of the raw sugar price may appear, but considering the production increase pattern, it should be treated with a bearish view. The domestic sugar market is expected to be bearish after a rebound [5]. 3. Summary by Category Futures Market - Sugar 2601 price is 5,656 yuan/ton, up 0.02%; Sugar 2509 is 5,826 yuan/ton, down 0.03%; ICE raw sugar main contract is 16.79 cents/pound, up 0.24% [4]. - Sugar 1 - 9 spread is - 170 yuan/ton, up 1.73%; Main contract open interest is 329,588, up 2.43%; Warehouse receipts are 21,477, down 1.74%; Valid forecasts are 0 [4]. Spot Market - Nanning price is 6,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; Kunming price is 5,905 yuan/ton, up 0.43% [4]. - Nanning county spread is 224 yuan/ton, up 0.90%; Kunming spread is 79 yuan/ton, up 51.92% [4]. - Imported Brazilian sugar (in - quota) is 4,476 yuan/ton, up 0.02%; Imported Brazilian sugar (out - quota) is 5,687 yuan/ton, up 0.04% [4]. Industry Situation - National cumulative sugar production is 11.1621 million tons, up 12.03%; National cumulative sugar sales are 8.1138 million tons, up 23.07% [4]. - Guangxi cumulative sugar production is 6.465 million tons, up 4.59%; Guangxi monthly sugar sales are 510,000 tons, down 3.26% [4]. - National cumulative sugar sales ratio is 72.59%, up 9.70%; Guangxi cumulative sugar sales ratio is 71.85%, up 8.11% [4]. - National industrial sugar inventory is 3.0483 million tons, down 9.56%; Guangxi industrial sugar inventory is 1.8197 million tons, down 12.23% [4]. Report on the Egg Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View This week, egg prices are expected to rise slightly and then stabilize, as demand is the dominant factor, but sufficient supply and high - temperature weather may suppress the price increase [8]. 3. Summary by Category Futures Market - Egg 09 contract price is 3,595 yuan/500KG, unchanged; Egg 08 contract is 3,520 yuan/500KG, up 1.68% [7]. - Basis is - 594 yuan/500KG, up 19.47%; 9 - 8 spread is 75 yuan/500KG, down 43.61% [7]. Spot Market - Egg producing area price is 3.00 yuan/jin, up 5.03% [7]. Industry Situation - Egg chick price is 3.88 yuan/feather, down 0.51%; Culled chicken price is 4.60 yuan/jin, up 4.35% [7]. - Egg - feed ratio is 2.11, down 3.65%; Breeding profit is - 41.50 yuan/feather, down 13.05% [7]. Report on the Oil Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View Palm oil is expected to continue to rise in a volatile manner. Short - term, soybean oil still has some room to rise, and the forward basis quote is supported [11]. 3. Summary by Category Futures Market - Soybean oil: Y2509 price is 8,160 yuan/ton, up 1.09%; Basis is 190 yuan/ton, down 12.84%; Warehouse receipts are 22,118, down 0.06% [11]. - Palm oil: P2509 price is 8,964 yuan/ton, up 1.91%; Basis is 6 yuan/ton, up 123.08%; Warehouse receipts are 854, unchanged [11]. - Rapeseed oil: O1509 price is 9,440 yuan/ton, up 1.55%; Basis is 74 yuan/ton, down 38.33%; Warehouse receipts are 3,487, down 2 [11]. Spread - Soybean oil inter - period spread (09 - 01) is 42 yuan/ton, unchanged; Palm oil inter - period spread (09 - 01) is 32 yuan/ton, up 60.00%; Rapeseed oil inter - period spread (09 - 01) is 77 yuan/ton, up 16.67% [11]. - Soybean - palm oil spread (spot) is - 620 yuan/ton, down 29.17%; Soybean - palm oil spread (2509) is - 804 yuan/ton, down 11.05% [11]. - Rapeseed - soybean oil spread (spot) is 1,310 yuan/ton, up 3.15%; Rapeseed - soybean oil spread (2509) is 1,426 yuan/ton, up 4.24% [11]. Report on the Meal Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View The short - term may have further upward space, and cautious and bullish operations are recommended [13]. 3. Summary by Category Futures Market - Soybean meal: M2509 price is 3,056 yuan/ton, up 0.89%; Basis is - 166 yuan/ton, up 1.78%; Warehouse receipts are 41,839, down 0.0% [13]. - Rapeseed meal: RM2509 price is 2,722 yuan/ton, up 0.11%; Basis is - 101 yuan/ton, up 7.34%; Warehouse receipts are 434, down 33.02% [13]. - Soybean: Bean 1 main contract price is 4,189 yuan/ton, down 0.26%; Basis is - 229 yuan/ton, up 4.58%; Warehouse receipts are 15,274, down 0.09% [13]. - Bean 2 main contract price is 3,726 yuan/ton, up 1.11%; Basis is - 66 yuan/ton, down 164.00% [13]. Spread - Soybean meal inter - period spread (09 - 01) is - 22 yuan/ton, up 12.00%; Rapeseed meal inter - period spread (09 - 01) is 328 yuan/ton, down 1.20% [13]. - Oil - meal ratio (spot) is 2.89, down 0.32%; Oil - meal ratio (main contract) is 2.67, up 0.20% [13]. - Soybean - rapeseed meal spread (spot) is 269 yuan/ton, up 7.60%; Soybean - rapeseed meal spread (2509) is 334 yuan/ton, up 7.74% [13]. Report on the Corn Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View In the short - term, the market's weak sentiment is released, and the futures price is slightly stronger but with limited space. Attention should be paid to policy auctions [15][16]. 3. Summary by Category Futures Market - Corn 2509 price is 2,314 yuan/ton, up 0.78%; Basis is 36 yuan/ton, down 18.18%; 9 - 1 spread is 70 yuan/ton, up 25.00% [15]. - Long - term position is 1,747,516, up 1.71%; Warehouse receipts are 178,283, down 3.62% [15]. Spot Market - Jinzhou Port FAS price is 2,350 yuan/ton, up 0.43%; Shekou bulk grain price is 2,430 yuan/ton, unchanged [15]. - North - south trade profit is - 1 yuan/ton, down 111.11%; Import profit is 440 yuan/ton, down 16.68% [15]. Industry Situation - Shandong deep - processing early - morning remaining vehicles are 288, up 80.00% [15]. Corn Starch - Corn starch 2509 price is 2,658 yuan/ton, up 0.45%; Basis is 22 yuan/ton, down 35.29%; 9 - 1 spread is 41 yuan/ton, up 13.89% [15]. - Starch - corn futures spread is 344 yuan/ton, down 1.71%; Shandong starch profit is - 141 yuan/ton, down 2.17% [15]. - Long - term position is 344,422, down 1.60%; Warehouse receipts are 12,334, down 5.80% [15]. Report on the Pig Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View The short - term sentiment is still strong, but the pressure above the 09 futures contract is continuously accumulating. Attention should be paid to the pressure above 14,500 [19]. 3. Summary by Category Futures Market - Main contract basis is 265, down 32.05%; Pig 2511 price is 13,635 yuan/ton, up 0.74%; Pig 2509 is 14,135 yuan/ton, up 0.53% [18]. - 9 - 11 spread is 500 yuan/ton, down 4.76%; Main contract open interest is 63,659, down 1.78%; Warehouse receipts are 284 [18]. Spot Market - Henan price is 14,400 yuan/ton, down 50.0; Shandong price is 14,500 yuan/ton, down 100.0; Sichuan price is 13,600 yuan/ton, down 100.0 [18]. - Liaoning price is 14,150 yuan/ton, down 100.0; Guangdong price is 15,540 yuan/ton, down 300.0; Hunan price is 13,960 yuan/ton, down 100.0; Hebei price is 14,400 yuan/ton, down 100.0 [18]. Industry Situation - Sample slaughter volume per day is 131,632 heads, down 0.73%; Weekly white - strip price is 20.84 yuan/kg, unchanged [18]. - Weekly piglet price is 26.00 yuan/kg, unchanged; Weekly sow price is 32.52 yuan/kg, unchanged [18]. - Weekly slaughter weight is 128.83 kg, down 0.16%; Weekly self - breeding profit is 91 yuan/head, down 32.11%; Weekly purchased - piglet breeding profit is - 19 yuan/head, down 159.05% [18]. - Monthly fertile sow inventory is 4,042 million heads, up 0.10% [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The report presents overnight market information on U.S. soybean and soybean meal export sales, Brazilian soybean production and export forecasts, and the adjustment of Malaysia's palm oil reference price and export tax [1] - It also provides spot price data for various oilseeds and oils [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Information - For the week ending July 10, U.S. soybean export sales totaled a net increase of 801,500 tons as expected. Current - market - year sales net increased by 271,900 tons, down 46% from the previous week and 39% from the four - week average. Next - market - year sales net increased by 529,600 tons. Export shipments were 276,400 tons, down 30% from the previous week and 8% from the four - week average. New sales for the current and next market years were 300,600 tons and 529,800 tons respectively [1] - For the week ending July 10, U.S. soybean meal export sales totaled a net increase of 530,500 tons as expected. Current - market - year sales net increased by 356,500 tons, up 72% from the previous week and 86% from the four - week average. Next - market - year sales net increased by 174,000 tons. Export shipments were 343,200 tons, up 17% from the previous week and 26% from the four - week average. New sales for the current and next market years were 410,400 tons and 179,800 tons respectively [1] - Abiove raised its forecast for Brazil's 2024/25 soybean exports from 108.2 million tons to 109 million tons, maintained the production forecast at 169.7 million tons, and increased the crushing volume forecast from 57.5 million tons to 57.8 million tons. The biodiesel blending ratio increase boosted the processing outlook. The forecast for soybean meal exports was maintained at 23.6 million tons, soybean oil exports were revised down from 1.4 million tons to 1.35 million tons, soybean oil production was raised from 11.45 million tons to 11.6 million tons, and soybean meal production was revised up to 44.5 million tons from 44.1 million tons [1] - Malaysia raised its August reference price for crude palm oil, increasing the export tax to 9%. The August reference price is 3,864.12 Malaysian ringgit ($910.28) per ton, compared with 3,730.48 Malaysian ringgit in July with an 8.5% export tax [1] Spot Prices - Spot prices for various products such as soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from July 11 to July 17, 2025 are provided [2] Others - Information on protein meal basis, oil basis, and oilseed and oil futures price spreads is mentioned but no specific data is presented [3][6][7]

农产品日报 | 2025-07-17 苹果库存交易稳定，陈枣供应依旧充足 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2510合约7840元/吨，较前一日变动-22元/吨，幅度-0.28%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一二 级晚富士价格3.95元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+60，较前一日变动+22；陕西洛川70# 以上半 商品晚富士价格4.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+1760，较前一日变动+22。 近期市场资讯，苹果市场行情整体维持稳淡运行，近期西部个别产区走货略好转，货源剩余不多，山东客商拿货 仍显谨慎，多挑拣拿货。西部部分冷库水烂点货源面积扩大，部分持货商开始存急售心理，部分现货商发自存货 源，早熟果目前仍以大荔、运城等地晨阳、华硕、秦阳为主，整体上量有限，对行情影响不大。山东产区仍以发 市场为主，价格小幅松动后走货依旧不快。销区市场走货一般，消暑类水果存在冲击。陕西洛川产区目前库内70# 起步统货4.2-4.5元/斤，70#起步半商品4.5-5.0元/斤，以质论价。 山东栖霞产区果农三级2.0-2.5元/斤，果农80#以上 统货2.8-3. ...

Research Views Corn - On Wednesday, the September corn contract first rose and then fell, closing with a small negative line. Last week, the main corn contract broke through the support level and declined rapidly, with the futures price significantly lower than the spot price. This attracted buying at the beginning of the week, driving the futures price up, but the rebound was limited, and the price was weak. The import corn auction on Tuesday had a negative impact on the market, with the futures market showing low - level fluctuations and the spot price also being average. Northeast deep - processing factories continued to lower their corn purchase prices, while the price in North China remained stable. The arrival volume of corn at Shandong deep - processing factories decreased, and some enterprises' prices rebounded slightly. In the sales area, the corn price continued to fall. The futures price had been falling for many days, and the import corn auction had an average transaction rate, leading to faster sales by traders, but the downstream's purchasing attitude was lukewarm. Feed mills mainly used wheat, and corn was only for rigid - demand restocking. Technically, the September contract price was under pressure at the 2300 - yuan integer mark and was expected to continue to decline [1]. Soybean and Soybean Meal - On Wednesday, CBOT soybeans closed higher due to hopes of increased US export demand. The US Department of Agriculture announced a 120,000 - ton large - order sale and a 219,000 - ton export to Mexico last Friday. The market was optimistic about the export sales report to be released on Thursday. On the 15th, the US and Indonesia reached an agreement where Indonesia promised to buy $15 billion worth of US energy products, $4.5 billion of US agricultural products, and 50 Boeing aircraft. Domestically, soybean meal fluctuated with a decreasing price volatility. Oil mills maintained a high operating rate, but the terminal's inquiry intention was low, mainly for short - term rigid - demand purchases, and the inventory of soybean meal was accumulating rapidly. Some factories suspended spot quotations or adopted a price - holding strategy. The market closely watched the progress of Sino - US relations and the fourth - quarter oilseed procurement. The trading idea was a slightly bullish oscillation, and the 9 - 1 and 1 - 5 positive spreads of soybean meal should be held [1]. Palm Oil and Other Oils - On Wednesday, BMD palm oil rose following the uptrend of the surrounding markets. Shipping data showed that the export of Malaysian palm oil from July 1 - 15 decreased by 5.29% - 6.2% month - on - month. SPPOMA data indicated that from July 1 - 15, the single - yield of Malaysian palm oil increased by 17.95%, the oil - extraction rate decreased by 0.17%, and the output increased by 17.06%. The increase in production and slowdown in exports limited the rise of palm oil. Domestically, the oil market continued to show a differentiated trend. The decline in the outer - market oil price brought pressure and led to long - position profit - taking. The phenomenon of urgent delivery of soybean oil was still serious, and the inventory was accumulating. The palm oil inventory increased steadily due to low arrivals, while the rapeseed oil inventory decreased. However, the recent improvement in the rapeseed crushing profit on the futures market limited the rapeseed oil price. The oils mainly oscillated, and single - side intraday trading was recommended, with the 9 - 1 positive spreads held [1]. Egg - On Wednesday, the main egg 2509 contract oscillated weakly, closing down 0.66% at 3591 yuan per 500 kilograms. According to Zhuochuang data, the national egg price was 2.72 yuan per catty, up 0.01 yuan per catty from the previous day. In the production area, the prices in some places were flat, and in the sales area, some prices were stable while some increased. After the plum - rain season, eggs would gradually enter the peak - demand season, but considering the supply - side pressure, the price peak was expected to be lower than last year. In the short term, the futures price would continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the impact of the egg's supply - demand structure and feed - raw material prices on the futures price [1][2]. Pig - On Wednesday, the main pig 2509 contract oscillated weakly during the session and declined from the phased high, closing down 1.68% at 14,010 yuan per ton. According to Zhuochuang data, the national average daily pig price was 14.42 yuan per kilogram, down 0.12 yuan per kilogram from the previous day, and the price in the benchmark delivery area of Henan was also down. The breeding end had a certain enthusiasm for selling, but the downstream orders were weak, and slaughterhouses were making losses. Under the situation of oversupply, the pig price continued to decline. The futures price adjusted from the high due to the falling spot price. Considering the current fundamentals, there was no obvious change. With supply pressure and policy support, the pig price was expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the impact of feed prices and market sentiment on the futures price [2]. Market Information - Ukraine's parliament passed a bill on Wednesday to impose a 10% export tariff on rapeseed and soybeans, which would harm the interests of small farmers and producers. Ukraine is an important oil - seed producer and exporter in Europe [3]. - The US Department of Agriculture announced that private exporters reported a 120,000 - ton soybean export sale to unknown destinations for the 2025/2026 season [3]. - Russian agricultural consulting agency Sovecon raised its forecast for the 2025 grain total output to 130.5 million tons from the previous 129.5 million tons, and the wheat output forecast was raised to 83.6 million tons from 83 million tons [3]. - The US Environmental Protection Agency announced that the US renewable fuel blending credits in June increased compared to May. The ethanol (D6) blending credits in June were about 1.25 billion gallons, higher than 1.22 billion gallons in May, and the biodiesel (D4) blending credits increased from 602 million gallons in May to 629 million gallons in June [3]. - SPPOMA data showed that from July 1 - 15, 2025, the single - yield of Malaysian palm oil increased by 17.95%, the oil - extraction rate decreased by 0.17%, and the output increased by 17.06% [4]. Variety Spreads Contract Spreads - The report presented contract spreads such as corn 9 - 1, corn starch 9 - 1, soybeans 9 - 1, soybean meal 9 - 1, soybean oil 9 - 1, palm oil 9 - 1, egg 9 - 1, and pig 9 - 1, but no specific data analysis was provided [5][6][8]. Contract Basis - The report also presented contract basis such as corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, egg, and pig, but no specific data analysis was provided [13][14][20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is expected to show an overall trend of oscillating upward, supported by factors such as the de - stocking of cotton and the high risk of heat damage in some Xinjiang regions. However, the consumption off - season in the downstream textile industry will slow down the price increase. It is recommended to conduct short - term long - position trading on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 13,990 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price is 20,180 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan. - Cotton futures top 20 net positions are - 16,786 lots, down 2,027 lots; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions are 137 lots, up 28 lots. - Cotton main contract open interest is 568,367 lots, up 21,679 lots; cotton yarn main contract open interest is 20,395 lots, down 773 lots. - Cotton warehouse receipts are 9,643 sheets, down 73 sheets; cotton yarn warehouse receipts are 98 sheets, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,272 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32s) is 20,520 yuan/ton, unchanged. - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,651 yuan/ton; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty) is 14,384 yuan/ton. - Imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32s) arrival price is 22,122 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32s) arrival price is 23,916 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national cotton sown area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6160 thousand tons, an increase of 540 thousand tons [2]. Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,248 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. - The national industrial inventory of cotton is 850 thousand tons, up 24 thousand tons; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 3,458.7 thousand tons, down 693.9 thousand tons. - Cotton import volume is 40 thousand tons, down 20 thousand tons; cotton yarn import volume is 100 thousand tons, down 20 thousand tons. - Imported cotton profit is 918 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days are 23.86 days, up 1.52 days; grey fabric inventory days are 35.46 days, up 2.57 days. - Monthly cloth output is 2.67 billion meters, down 0.05 billion meters; monthly yarn output is 1.951 million tons, down 36 thousand tons. - Monthly clothing and clothing accessories export value is 1,357,773.7 thousand US dollars, up 197,117.9 thousand US dollars; monthly textile yarn, fabric and product export value is 1,263,177.3 thousand US dollars, up 5,210.9 thousand US dollars [2]. Option Market - Cotton at - the - money call option implied volatility is 17.39%, up 1.43%; cotton at - the - money put option implied volatility is 17.39%, up 1.37%. - Cotton 20 - day historical volatility is 5.09%, up 0.09%; cotton 60 - day historical volatility is 8.31%, down 0.04% [2]. Industry News - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' July 2025 China agricultural product supply - demand analysis shows that the forecast of China's cotton supply - demand situation remains the same as last month. As of the end of June, most cotton - growing areas in the country are in the budding to flowering stage, 4 - 7 days earlier than normal. - The China Meteorological Administration predicts that Xinjiang will have continuously high temperatures in July, with more high - temperature days than normal, and cotton is at high risk of heat damage. - According to the USDA weekly crop growth report, as of the week of July 13, 2025, the boll - setting rate of US cotton is 23%, up from 14% last week, compared with 26% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 22%. The budding rate is 61%, up from 48% last week, compared with 62% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 62%. The good - to - excellent rate is 54%, up from 52% last week, compared with 45% in the same period last year [2]. Viewpoint Summary - Although the US cotton rating has been revised upward, the forecast of dry weather in future production areas has boosted the US cotton futures price. The US imposes tariffs on imported products from countries such as Japan and South Korea, and there are threats of new tariffs on BRICS countries, so be vigilant about macro - factor risks. - In China, the textile industry is in the consumption off - season, with poor new orders and a slow decline in the overall operating rate. Enterprises are more cautious in purchasing raw materials due to rising raw material prices. As of July 10, the operating load of mainstream textile enterprises is 70.40%, down 0.84% month - on - month [2].

CBOT农产品晚间分析：巴西丰产叠加美豆生长状况良好，目前美豆价格还是高估了？ 相关链接 期货盯盘神器专属文章 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the pig market is neutral [3] - The investment rating for the egg market is cautiously bearish [5] 2. Core Views - In the pig market, with the expectation of increased future supply, the spot price is likely to continue to decline. Entering the seasonal consumption off - season, there is no obvious short - term boost on the demand side. Secondary fattening demand may enter the market when the price drops to around 14 yuan/kg. Policy - related factors such as state reserve purchases and sales and the "anti - involution" policy need attention, as well as supply - side slaughter changes [2] - In the egg market, the current demand remains at a normal level during the off - season. The cold - storage warehousing in northern sales areas has slowed down, and traders are cautious in purchasing. The approaching end of the plum - rain season in southern sales areas and the postponed Mid - Autumn Festival have limited impact on demand. The short - term market pattern of oversupply is difficult to change, and farmers will continue to incur losses [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live hog 2509 contract yesterday was 14,285 yuan/ton, a change of - 60 yuan/ton (- 0.42%) from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: The price of external ternary live hogs in Henan was 14.60 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous trading day; in Jiangsu, it was 15.10 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.04 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 13.90 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.08 yuan/kg. The spot basis in Henan was LH09 + 315, a change of - 40; in Jiangsu, it was LH09 + 815, a change of + 20; in Sichuan, it was LH09 - 385, a change of - 220 [1] - Agricultural product wholesale prices on July 14: The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 113.02, down 0.33 points from last Friday; the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 113.12, down 0.38 points. The average price of pork was 20.60 yuan/kg, unchanged; beef was 63.92 yuan/kg, up 0.6%; mutton was 59.38 yuan/kg, unchanged; eggs were 6.97 yuan/kg, down 0.9%; white - striped chickens were 17.21 yuan/kg, up 1.2% [1] Market Analysis - Due to expected supply increase and the seasonal consumption off - season, the spot price may decline. Secondary fattening may enter the market when the price reaches around 14 yuan/kg. Policy factors and supply - side slaughter changes need to be monitored [2] Strategy - Neutral [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2508 contract yesterday was 3461 yuan/500 kg, a change of + 19 yuan (+ 0.55%) from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 2.58 yuan/jin, a change of + 0.22; in Shandong, it was 2.85 yuan/jin, a change of + 0.25; in Hebei, it was 2.58 yuan/jin, a change of + 0.07. The spot basis in Liaoning was JD08 - 881, a change of + 201; in Shandong, it was JD08 - 611, a change of + 231; in Hebei, it was JD08 - 881, a change of + 51 [3] - Inventory: On July 14, the national production - link inventory was 0.73 days, a decrease of 0.27 days from the previous trading day; the circulation - link inventory was 0.98 days, a decrease of 0.34 days [3] Market Analysis - The current demand is weak during the off - season. Cold - storage warehousing in northern areas has slowed down, and the approaching end of the plum - rain season and the postponed Mid - Autumn Festival in southern areas have limited impact on demand. The short - term oversupply pattern will continue, and farmers will keep losing money [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]

2025 年 7 月 15 日 棕榈油：产地复产存疑，等待矛盾演化 豆油：美豆天气炒作不足，缺乏驱动 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 SEA：印度 6 月棕榈油进口量环比激增 60%至 955683 吨，豆油进口量下降 9.8%至 359504 吨，葵花籽 油进口量增长 17.8%至 216141 吨。印度 6 月植物油进口总量为 1549825 吨，较 5 月的 1187068 吨增长 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价(日 盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜 盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,748 | 0.76% | 8,788 | 0.46% | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 7,994 | 0.10% | 8,020 | 0.33% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,424 | -0.16% | 9,474 | 0.53% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,232 | 1.37% | 4,228 | -0.0 ...

Sugar Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The global sugar supply is tending to be loose, pressuring the raw sugar. The market demand is weak, but the low inventory supports the spot price in Guangxi. Considering the increase in imports later, the domestic supply and demand are marginally loose. It is recommended to maintain a bearish view after the rebound and pay attention to the pressure at 5800 - 5900 [2]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of white sugar 2601 is 5632 yuan/ton, down 0.05%; the price of white sugar 2509 is 5810 yuan/ton, up 0.09%. The main contract holding volume increased by 4.46%, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 0.83% [1]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning is 6060 yuan/ton, up 0.17%; the spot price in Kunming is 5905 yuan/ton, up 0.43%. The Nanning basis increased by 2.04%, and the Kunming basis increased by 26.67% [1]. - **Industrial Situation**: The national cumulative sugar production increased by 12.03% year-on-year, and the cumulative sales increased by 23.07% year-on-year. The industrial inventory in Guangxi decreased by 12.23% year-on-year, and the industrial inventory in Yunnan increased by 0.29% year-on-year [1][3]. Cotton Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The contradiction of tight commercial cotton inventory in the 2024/25 season is difficult to solve before the new cotton is listed, which still strongly supports the cotton price. In the short term, the domestic cotton price may fluctuate strongly in a stable range, and will be under pressure after the new cotton is listed in the long term [4]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of cotton 2509 is 13885 yuan/ton, up 0.14%; the price of cotton 2601 is 13820 yuan/ton, up 0.07%. The main contract holding volume increased by 0.80%, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 0.32% [4]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B is 15263 yuan/ton, up 0.58%; the CC Index of 3128B is 15266 yuan/ton, up 0.46%. The 3128B - 01 contract basis increased by 5.19%, and the 3128B - 05 contract basis increased by 5.71% [4]. - **Industrial Situation**: The commercial inventory decreased by 9.5% month-on-month, the industrial inventory decreased by 2.9% month-on-month, the import volume decreased by 33.3% month-on-month, and the bonded area inventory decreased by 8.9% month-on-month [4]. Egg Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The inventory of laying hens remains high, and the egg supply is sufficient. However, due to the high temperature, the egg weight and laying rate have declined, and the supply of large eggs is tight. The egg price has dropped to a phased low, and the demand is expected to increase. It is expected that the egg price may rise this week, but the increase may be limited [8]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of the egg 09 contract is 3580 yuan/500KG, up 0.06%; the price of the egg 08 contract is 3442 yuan/500KG, down 0.12%. The 9 - 8 spread increased by 4.55% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The egg production area price is 2.51 yuan/jin, up 1.39%. The basis increased by 3.95% [7]. - **Industrial Situation**: The price of day-old chicks remained unchanged, the price of culled hens decreased by 2.13%, the egg - feed ratio decreased by 4.37%, and the breeding profit decreased by 20.60% [7]. Oil Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View For palm oil, due to concerns about seasonal production growth, the futures price may face resistance and fall back. For soybean oil, the speculation on the US biodiesel theme has ended, and the market is affected by both positive and negative factors, showing a narrow - range shock adjustment [10]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of Y2509 is 7986, up 0.53%; the price of P2509 is 8682, up 0.51%; the price of 01509 is 9439, down 0.31% [10]. - **Spot Market**: The price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil is 8240, up 0.86%; the price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil is 8800, up 1.50%; the price of Jiangsu fourth - grade rapeseed oil is 9610, up 0.31% [10]. - **Industrial Situation**: The import profit of Malaysian palm oil increased, and the inventory of domestic palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil showed different trends [10]. Meal Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The weather in the US soybean producing areas is good, and the market is worried about the impact of US tariffs. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the开机 rate is improving. The soybean meal basis is stable, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand [11]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of M2509 is 2976, up 0.74%; the price of RM2509 is 2633, up 0.84%; the price of the soybean No. 1 main contract is 4101, down 0.10%; the price of the soybean No. 2 main contract is 3610, up 0.61% [11]. - **Spot Market**: The price of Jiangsu soybean meal is 2830, up 1.07%; the price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal is 2530, up 0.80%; the price of Harbin soybeans is 3960, unchanged; the price of Jiangsu imported soybeans is 3660, unchanged [11]. - **Industrial Situation**: The import profit of Brazilian soybeans in September increased, and the import profit of Canadian rapeseed in November decreased [11]. Corn Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In the short term, the market sentiment is weak, but as the remaining grain decreases, the downward space for the corn price is limited. In the medium term, the tight supply and increasing consumption support the corn price. It is recommended to wait and see [13]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of corn 2509 is 2306, down 0.60%; the price of corn starch 2509 is 2656, down 0.78% [13]. - **Spot Market**: The Pingcang price in Jinzhou remained unchanged, the Shekou bulk grain price is 2430, down 0.41%, the Changchun spot price of corn starch is 2700, unchanged, and the Weifang spot price is 2920, unchanged [13]. - **Industrial Situation**: The import corn auction continued, the downstream deep - processing entered the seasonal maintenance period, and the wheat substitution squeezed the corn demand [13]. Pig Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The current breeding profit has returned to a low level, and the market is cautious about capacity expansion. The short - term sentiment is still strong, but the pressure on the 09 contract is increasing. Attention should be paid to the pressure above 14500 [18]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of the main contract decreased by 14.74%, the price of pig 2511 is 13645, down 0.37%, the price of pig 2509 is 14345, down 0.21%, and the 9 - 11 spread increased by 2.94% [17]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of pigs fluctuated, with prices in different regions showing different degrees of decline [17]. - **Industrial Situation**: The slaughter volume increased by 0.59%, the white - striped pork price remained unchanged, the price of piglets decreased by 3.20%, the price of sows remained unchanged, the slaughter weight increased by 0.31%, the self - breeding profit increased by 11.82%, and the purchased - pig breeding profit increased by 220.34% [17].

Core Viewpoint - The Yiseng Agricultural Futures Index experienced fluctuations, closing at 1176.04 points last Friday, indicating a short-term trend of oscillation with a slight upward bias [1]. Group 1: Cotton Market - Cotton prices are showing strong fluctuations, with U.S. cotton rebounding but the momentum weakening. Zheng cotton is performing strongly due to tight old crop cotton inventories and high bullish sentiment among investors. However, future performance is expected to remain oscillatory with a slight upward trend due to industrial hedging pressure [3]. Group 2: Sugar Market - The sugar market is maintaining a fluctuating trend, with ICE raw sugar contract dropping to a low of 15.44 cents per pound. Low prices are stimulating demand, providing support to the market, while expectations of a decline in the sugar-ethanol price ratio in Brazil are also influencing the market. Overall, Zheng sugar is unlikely to show a trending market due to hedging pressures [3]. Group 3: Soybean Meal and Oil Market - Soybean meal prices are showing a strong oscillatory trend. Recent price movements have been influenced by weak performances in CBOT soybeans and Canadian canola, with domestic supply expected to be limited due to rapidly declining canola inventories. The market is anticipated to remain supported by strong soybean meal prices [3]. - Conversely, canola oil prices are experiencing a downward trend due to improved rainfall in Canadian canola production areas, which is exerting pressure on domestic canola oil futures. The market is expected to focus on destocking, with some support for spot prices [4]. Group 4: Peanut Market - The peanut market is experiencing oscillations, with concentrated old crop supplies and rising summer storage costs on one hand, and limited demand due to the off-season on the other. The overall planting area for new season peanuts is expected to increase slightly, which has already been reflected in the market. Future price movements will depend on weather conditions and import-related developments [4]. Group 5: Overall Market Outlook - The Yiseng Agricultural Futures Index is expected to remain within its current range in the short term, with a primary outlook of oscillatory performance with a slight upward bias [5].